Games » Cleveland Indians
Sep30The 10-run fifth
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
Coming into the fifth inning, Royals starter Luke Hochevar had thrown 65 pitches and given up one run. Two-thirds of an inning later, Luke had thrown 103 pitches and given up nine runs. Hochevar’s roller-coaster season ended on a low point, a 15-3 Royals loss.
The fifth inning started with a double by Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Choo. Hochevar seemed to ignore Choo, who then stole third. Jason Kipnis doubled on a curveball, and Choo scored. Asdrubal Cabrera bunted for a single and Kipnis moved to third. Pitching coach Dave Eiland visited the mound, and Hochevar then struck out Lonnie Chisenhall.
With runners at first and third and one down, Hochevar was a ground ball away from getting out of the inning. But then he hung a curve to Jack Hannahan. Luke struck out Hannahan on a curve in the third inning, but this curve was up, and Hannahan doubled. Kipnis scored, and Cabrera wound up on third.
With first base open, Brent Lillibridge walked on five pitches. Without talking to Luke, I couldn’t tell you for sure, but when first is open, it gives the pitcher a base to work with. If Luke thought he could get Lillibridge to chase pitches just off the plate, he was wrong.
Pitchers will sometimes try to use a hitter’s aggressiveness against him (especially with runners in scoring position), but if that was what Luke was doing, Lillibridge didn’t bite. Hochevar had the bases loaded once again.
A double play still would have gotten Hochevar out of the inning with the score 3-0. Casey Kotchman hit a grounder to Billy Butler at first, and Billy attempted a 3-6-3 double play, the hardest double play there is. (It usually takes two long throws instead of a short flip and one long throw.) The Royals got the lead runner (and according to Bob Dutton’s story, even that out was a gift). But the Royals couldn’t turn two. That meant Cabrera scored, and there were runners at first and third — again.
Hochevar then walked Lou Marson (who ended the day hitting .230), and the bases were loaded again. (OK. Going through this disaster blow by blow is starting to seem a little masochistic, but if I had to sit through it in real time, the least you can do is read about it.) Where we we? Oh, yeah. Hochevar then hit Jason Donald with a curveball, which forced in another run. Then Shin-Soo Choo — who seemed to be coming to the plate every 15 minutes — singled, driving in two more.
Saturday night, the Royals bullpen supplied 12 innings of pitching, and I’m guessing Yost wanted Luke to go as deep as he could in this game, but that was it. Ned went to the pen and brought in Everett Teaford.
Game notes
• The bullpen, which has been outstanding for much of the season, didn’t help matters. Everett Teaford, facing the left-handed Jason Kipnis, walked him on four pitches. Everett then threw Asdrubal Cabrera a 1-1 fastball that ran back inside and Cabrera hit a grand slam.
• A 10-run inning will generally take you out of a ballgame, and this 10-run inning was no exception. Ned began to bring in bench players and let some of the regulars sit down.
• Before he left the game, Salvador Perez singled and ended the day hitting .301. Yost has said it is only fair to put the best possible team on the field against contenders, but if it weren’t Detroit coming in to finish the season, would Sal sit the last three games and finish with a .300 average?
• In some ways, it looks as if the Royals are limping to the finish line. Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar have shoulder injuries, and Mike Moustakas came out of this game with a groin problem. (I know the feeling. At my age, I have a groin problem almost every day.)
• A lot of these guys have never played 162 games before, and these last few games may be a learning experience.
• Imagine if the Royals had made the playoffs and another month of baseball was a possibility.
• Some of these games may see meaningless (and a 15-3 game against Cleveland comes close), but guys are playing to make next year’s team. What Jeremy Jeffress, Tony Abreu or Irving Falu does in a blowout still matters.
• Recently, Jeremy Guthrie had a start where he said every pitch was a battle and he had to figure out a way to fight through not having his best stuff. He did. Hochevar has not demonstrated the ability to do the same. When things go bad, they go very bad.
• According to Bob Dutton’s game story, this was the seventh time in 32 starts that Hochevar had allowed at least seven runs. Luke has been excellent at times, but when he’s bad, he gives his team almost no chance to win.
• I’ve got no inside scoop, but the betting is that Luke will be back next year but at the back of the rotation, not the front.
Getting it right
(This is another piece I wrote a while ago and never found time to post.)
When Johnny Giavotella got back to the major leagues, I told him the same thing I tell all the players: If you ever think I got something wrong, come tell me.
When the team is in town, I can run downstairs after a game and talk to the people involved. When the Royals are on the road, I give my opinion, but sometimes I can’t confirm that what I thought happened actually happened.
If a player tells me I’ve got something wrong, even if I disagree, I still will give his side of the story. I’m much more concerned with getting it right than being right.
An example
Years ago, I was watching a game in which the starting pitcher was getting knocked around pretty good. I expected the manager to pull him, but he didn’t. The pitcher’s ERA was going up like a car’s odometer and yet he was still out there, flinging pitches at the plate and getting them roped all over the park. The starter stayed in the game far longer than seemed reasonable.
After the game, I asked one of the coaches what was up with leaving the starter in so long. The coach told me that the pitcher had complained that the manager came to get him too soon “so we left him.” Hey, you think we come get you too soon? OK, hotshot, get out of it on your own.
The team was already losing and buried in the standings, so cooking the starter wasn’t costing much. It also allowed management to send a message to the other players: Shut up, do your job and let us do ours. Fans probably thought they had just seen an awful managing job. What they really saw was a manager dealing with a problem.
It just goes to show, you never know.
No. 1 pointer to bunting by Royals Rusty Kuntz
Kansas City Royals coach Rusty Kuntz concludes a series on bunting by giving his number one pointer to being successful at bunting. 10/1/12 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Gordon
Abreu
Dyson
Josh Cooper
7 months, 3 weeks agoAnyone want to continue to defend Hochevar because he had one great game against David Price?
Josh Cooper
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim saying that Odorizzi needs to beat out Hoch who is TERRIBLE and has been TERRIBLE for his entire career is not good baseball logic. No other team would stick with a guy like him for as long as the Royals have.
If Hochevar pitches one more game for the Royals then it is just another bit of proof that Moore knows very little when it comes to pitching.
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoGiven the repeated rhetoric from Dayton Moore and the Glass family about acquiring starting pitching this offseason, it should be a safe bet to say Hochever will not be back next year. He can’t be.
Sean Fischbach
7 months, 3 weeks agoLuke coming back next season would be a slap in the face to EVERY SINGLE ROYALS fan in the history of the franchise. Even the dead ones. LET HIM GO
Even if he becomes the next Cy-Young winner it’s OK for the Royals to say enough. He’s worse than Kyle Davies at this point. They let him go.
Terry Payne
7 months, 3 weeks agoI’ve posted this b/4: do not dare to tend an offer to Hoch. Let him try to earn his way back in spring training as a low-budget free agent. If you can trade him and get a bag of balls in return, go for it.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks ago“Jim saying that Odorizzi needs to beat out Hoch who is TERRIBLE and has been TERRIBLE for his entire career is not good baseball logic.”
It’s perfect logic. Should Hochevar be tendered, seemingly less likely with every one of his recent starts, and be able to beat out JaKKKe, then Odorizzi isn’t ready yet. It’s not about Luke, it’s about Jake Odorizzi. Assuming a couple of FAs, there’s going to be a lot of bodies fighting for the last couple of rotation spots with Luis Mendoza and Will Smith having the inside tracks.
Josh Cooper
7 months, 3 weeks agoYou do understand that the Royals organization is known for letting players keep their position on the team simply because they don’t like change? They love their veterans. If Hochevar outperforms Odorizzi in spring training, you really want to give Hoch that job? That is insane logic. We know what Hoch is. Odorizzi is an unknown with a good ceiling.
Why in the world would you repeat the same thing and expect different results? I’m sure you know what the definition of insanity is.
If the Royals sign two FA’s, bring back Guthrie, and hang on to Mendoza and someone else (NOT CHEN OR HOCHEVAR) surprises them then yeah, keep Odo in the minors for a little bit. But if Chen or Hochevar start in the majors next year and not Odorizzi it says far more about the Royals organization than it does about Odorizzi.
KC Guy
7 months, 3 weeks ago“You do understand that the Royals organization is known for letting players keep their position on the team simply because they don’t like change? They love their veterans. ”
That sounds like someone that reads a lot of Royals message boards and gets really charged up because a major league team has to actually show patience in what they do, instead of either knee-jerk reactions left and right, or subscribing to the idea that bringing up a bunch of minor leaguers to flail around in the big leagues is better than holding court with some guys who can at least put up an average/competent performance..
“We know what Hoch is. Odorizzi is an unknown with a good ceiling.”
Hoch is what he is, but he still has a higher ceiling than Odorizzi, for what it’s worth..
“The Royals got the lead runner (and according to Bob Dutton’s story, even that out was a gift). ”
Falu was ghost-tagging second, and already about 2-3 feet away by the time he actually caught the ball.
Even if he becomes the next Cy-Young winner it’s OK for the Royals to say enough.
Other than the fact that it will be brought up continually as a failing of GMDM if that actually happens..
It always seems weird to me that Dayton Moore can bring in so many of the supposed cornerstones of the franchise, and have the team so close to contention, yet still be continually hammered as having no idea how to put together a major league roster simply because the starting pitching is not as good as it needs to be. That is a problem with almost every other team. Sometimes, taking a step back (and away from the online echo chamber) gives you a little bit better perspective on exactly where the Royals were before GMDM and where they are now..
Josh Cooper
7 months, 3 weeks agoHow long does Hochever need to stay in the rotation before it isn’t a knee jerk reaction to get him out of there?
Hoch does not have a higher ceiling than Odorizzi. He is what he is. He is a terrible pitcher. He has proven that over 766 innings. Odorizzi’s ceiling is higher than that.
Why do you prefer Hochevar to Odorizzi? I don’t get it.
KC Guy
7 months, 3 weeks agoI don’t prefer Hochevar, but if you look at what they bring to the table, Hochevar brings more. He throws harder, he has more pitches. He obviously has a really hard time turning it into success, and I’m not saying that he ever will. But the reason the Royals keep running him out there is because he has more tools to be successful at the MLB level. It’s easy to say the unknown guy is a better option, but you don’t really know that. If Hochevar is still with the Royals next year, it’s not a slap in the face to Royals fans, it doesn’t say “far more” about the Royals organization, or any of that. If the Royals drop him, another team will give him a chance. It’s mostly just disappointing that he was our shot at a #1 overall pick, and this is what he is..
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks ago“But if Chen or Hochevar start in the majors next year and not Odorizzi it says far more about the Royals organization than it does about Odorizzi.”
No. JaKKKe has some potential, but his FB isn’t great, averaged under 91 Saturday, and he throws a lot of pitches. He may become good, he may not, but he’s not a Zack, Monty, Yordano, or Duffy level prospect, so needs to fix some issues before he is blocked by anyone other than himself. His pure stuff isn’t as good as Hochevar’s from what he’s shown. It isn’t as good as Guthrie’s. It’s not as good as Mendoza’s. His apparent ceiling at the moment isn’t all that high, he’s sitting in there with Verdugo and a step behind Will Smith and Nate Adcock.
If Hoch is non-tendered, an increasingly strong possibility unless the FO thinks they can get a change-of-scenery trade, that opens no doors for Odorizzi. Command and control will.
Should be an interesting off-season. That’s actually my favorite time of the year:)
Josh Cooper
7 months, 3 weeks agoHochever is a failed prospect. It happens. There is proof of this on the back of his baseball card. But just because a guy was drafted in the first round does not mean you need to continually throw him out there and hope he figures it out.
It’s time to move on. It’s okay. The Royals will be okay without their perennial 5+ ERA pitcher. If Odorizzi is this bad for two to three years then I will say the same thing about him.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks ago“It’s time to move on. It’s okay.”
It may well be, but if it’s alright, I think the FO will see who they can sign, see how the rehabs of the three TJS pitchers is going, and try to get an idea on Verdugo and Ventura. Personel moves aren’t made in a vacuum and, as Jeremy Guthrie reminds us, just because the mob is chanting “DFA” doesn’t make it a good move.
“If Odorizzi is this bad for two to three years then I will say the same thing about him.”
Too much talent coming along, I doubt JaKKKe gets near that long to prove himself. With Zimmer, Selman, and Kyle Smith on the horizon within 2 or 3 years and Odorizzi competing for a spot with Ventura in Omaha next year, Odorizzi won’t have near the slack that Hochevar did to make it. Like Giavotella, his window will shrink fairly quickly. That’s what competition from the draft and international signings do.
Joel Kallem
7 months, 3 weeks agoHoch hangs on because as bad as he is, he is still a better alternative than what we have available right now. The same for Chen. As some guys recover from TJS and get their effectiveness back, we sign some FA’s and some of the young players develop (including hopefully Jake), the two may in fact go by the wayside. But until someone shows that they can out pitch them over multiple games, the Royals will keep them as the best alternative available. To date, in his two starts, Jake has not shown he is ready for the big leagues. Adcock and Coleman have shown more at the major league level, and they don’t strike me as “saviors” either.
Terry Payne
7 months, 3 weeks agoThe other guy’s grass is always greener. A lot of folks assume that Wil Myers is the position player’s Chosen One, and Jake O is the pitching Chosen One. Wil has yet to show at the ML level, and Jake is proving nothing, so far.
Gee, playing MLB must be harder than it looks.
Joel Kallem
7 months, 3 weeks agoGee Terry, I think you are right, and so is putting a team together to play it.
Aaron Reese
7 months, 3 weeks agoIt’s not like people who say that the Royals should keep Hochevar are cheerleaders. If he is released, none of us will be heartbroken. In fact, I bet everyone is pretty disappointed that we have to take up the mantle on behalf of a guy with a career 5.39 ERA. With a better pitching staff this year, he would have been benched or thrown in the pen or sent to the minors or designated for assignment. If the Royals had the resources of Texas, they could have treated Hochevar like R.A. Dickey for six years, when he was even worse that Hochevar, and just kept sending him to the minors. But the Royals couldn’t. It sucks. We know.
We’re looking at the definite consequences of releasing him. It’s easy to say, “release him and sign someone better,” but reality may disagree with your sentiment. You must first assume that better talent is available. You must assume that the talent wants to come to Kansas City, assume that the Royals can make a competitive offer, and assume that the talent won’t demand more money that he’s worth. The Royals can probably afford to tie up 15 million a year on Grienke, maybe more, but what if he wants 22 million? He’s not worth that salary.
The Royals will be competing with the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Indians, Rockies, and Twins in an already slim starting pitching market. We don’t know what we’ll get in return for Hochevar. What we do know is that Hochevar CAN deliver 200 innings and a 5.00 ERA. He’s healthy. Later next year, after Paulino and Duffy return, Hochevar can deliver 10 starts in a row if someone is injured. He will also work with Dave Eiland in the off-season.
If the Royals release him, there will be no collective groan from ‘we who have the audacity to defend Hochevar.’ The only thing I will think is that Dayton Moore was successful in making other arrangements for the rotation. We can’t just depend on the positive outcomes of almost innumerable hypotheticals.
I think Dayton Moore should make a run at Grienke, Marcum, Haren, Anibal Sanchez, and a couple others. There is a very high possibility that the Royals will be unable to sign a single one. If that’s the case. The Royals will need Hochevar.
Joel Kallem
7 months, 3 weeks agoWell said Aaron. You point out the limitations the Royals face in trying to improve their pitching. Easy to be a GM on the web, but much harder and more complicated in the real world.
Larry Tindle
7 months, 3 weeks agoAs Lee has said several times ” the game gets easier the further you get from the dirt”.
Terry Payne
7 months, 3 weeks agoWe all talk about “releasing” Hoch. As I understand it, his contract expires and GMDM does not necessarily HAVE to re-negotiate another one. Am I wrong?
If our country’s president was named Fidel, each team would have all the quality SP it would need. Of course, there would only be one team, GM named Fidel.
So, blame capitalism if you’re looking for who/what to blame.
Brian Grant
7 months, 3 weeks agoSo what if it’s hard???? Other GM’s do it. I just…..in 25 years they couldn’t get it right even ONCE? ONE TIME you couldn’t put a playoff team on the field? In 25 years? Really? Everybody else can! Detroit lost 119 games in 2003. ONE HUNDRED AND NINETEEN. Two years later they were in the world series. Tampa Bay and Oakland pay their team equal or less than the Royals….both have seen multiple playoff years.
The Kansas City Royals Baseball Organization is an absolute joke. They are incompetently run and managed from top to bottom, and have been since Mr. Kaufman died.
I expect nothing but continued losing. Our farm system will collapse, our prospects will disappoint, our pitching will not improve, our “studs” will regress, the losing will continue, and 5 years from now, we’ll still be here….talking about “how hard it is to win in the major leagues”.
We are the epitome of suck.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoAfter Brian, whatever I write will sound positive!
Aaron, I respectfully diagree. It will be very hard (impossible) to replace Hovhevar with a proven, front of the rotation starter. But that’s not the issue. Finding a better alternative to a pitcher with a 5.73 ERA making $5 million is easy. That same production can be acheived (actually improved upon) with players at around the ML minimum and the savings used elsewhere or we could sign a couple of rehab type free agents to one year deals with the money. Luke needs a change of scenery and so do the Royals.
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoIf Dayton Moore can’t find one starter better than Luke Hochever this offseason, he deserves to be fired. According to MLB Trade Rumors, there are 46 pitchers who will be free agents after this year. How many of them are better than Luke? 30? 35? 40?
We don’t have to get a Grienke or a Jake Peavy to upgrade the rotation and send Luke packing. There are numerous ‘mid-level’ pitchers who will be available and affordable to us.
No excuses.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoTrades, the waver wire. There are many options. The Royals got Paulino for cash (and not much of it).
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks ago“With a better pitching staff this year, he would have been benched or thrown in the pen or sent to the minors or designated for assignment.”
Aaron, that’s the key to Hochevar’s longevity and why it’s unlikely a future pitcher will get five or six years to try to fix things.
“They are incompetently run and managed from top to bottom, and have been since Mr. Kaufman died.”
You should probably get out your calculator. I see this nonsense often.
“There are numerous ‘mid-level’ pitchers who will be available and affordable to us.”
Kevin Scobee took a look at one of them, a 32 year old with a bad back who may be available. His fWAR is 1.7, a few ticks higher than Luke’s. I think a mid-level might be useful for a year at most, but with the market a mid-level is going to be looking for a 4/40 or so.
“he deserves to be fired”
You’ld fire Dayton Moore if he liked Coke instead of Pepsi:)
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoSo far this year, 164 pitchers have 10 or more starts and an ERA better than Luke’s.
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim, at what point are we allowed to criticize the front office? We’re wrapping up our sixth consecutive losing season under Dayton Moore… is it fair to criticize if we hit seven? Eight? 15?
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoAs KC Guy said, Luke has stuck around because his ceiling is as a dominant ace. Jake’s upside is as a middle/ solid back-end guy. With a much lower upside, he’s not going to get as many chances. If Glass does what he suggested and picks up two mid-level pitchers (one of which may be Guthrie), then Luke is the sixth starter (Guthrie, X, Mendoza, Chen, Will Smith) with back-ups of any combination of Jake, Adcock, Teaford or any number of other options (described above) until the TJ guys return.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoDaniel, you can make your point without all of the “fire Dayton” stuff. The point is that Luke’s performance over his career is not that hard to replace. Luke’s ceiling is very hard to replace. The issue seems to be when is it time to ignore his ceiling? Based on his September and the earlier interviews that indicated he was tired of the coaches and they were tired of him, I think that time has arrived. If Glass spends the money on two mid-level guys as he says he wants to, then there really is no role left for Luke and I would be surprised if the Royals spend the money to keep him.
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim W, why am I not allowed to say ‘Fire Dayton’? Is he so above reproach? Am I not allowed to be angry that the Royals are now owners of the longest stretch of non-postseason baseball?
Dayton, like Scott Pioli, is far enough along in his tenure that we shouldn’t be questioning basic personnel decisions and struggling to win 70 games. It’s my right as a fan and an 81-game season ticket holder to demand better.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks ago“Jim, at what point are we allowed to criticize the front office?”
From when GM Dayton Moore was hired and David Glass made it to the point in the learning curve where he realized he couldn’t run the team like Walmart. Then, I think, criticism needs to be in reference to the starting point.
I’ve criticized the Meche and Guillen signings, but realize that those were PR moves because you were demanding that Mr. Glass step up and do something. I wasn’t on board with bringing Giavotella up last year when we needed a UIF, prefered Irving Falu, and I was against signing Yuni, even though I understood that one too. I wouldn’t have brought JaKKKe up, would rather have given the starts to Verdugo.
” Luke needs a change of scenery and so do the Royals.”
Yep. Other teams also have high-stuff disappointments, the Orioles’ Jake Arietta a name kicked around at the trade deadline. That might be the major reason to tender Luke, to set up a trade rather than just giving him away.
“I would be surprised if the Royals spend the money to keep him.”
I’ve suggested that if Luke is non-tendered and Gordon traded for a bunch of A and AA prospects, the Royals could make a serious run at Sanchez, Jackson, and Guthrie. On the other hand, none of them may be interested in coming to KC in the AL or the market may just get too silly in both price and length of contracts.
I know some demand “all-in”, but the FO is probably trying to figure out how to sign a couple of FAs without crippling chances to keep Hoz, Moose, Myers, and others a few years down the road. Complex business problem.
“If Glass spends the money on two mid-level guys as he says he wants to”
I think he’s just lowering expectations til he gets a better idea of what is needed and possible. He may decide that signing Anibal Sanchez and keeping Luke is better than signing two Dan Haran’s for about the same total money.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoDaniel, you are absolutely allowed to do those things! You don’t even need good reasons. But they are unnecessary to make many of your good points and your good points will be lost or ignored by many because of your rants against the FO. Personally, the only reason I care is because I would like to your passion and knowledge used in a way that gets you the respect you deserve among a wider audience. I’m not defending Dayton. But I am giving him one more year. My guess is that’s about how much time Mr. Glass is giving him.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks agoI don’t see Moore on a short leash at all, would be very surprised if David Glass blames Moore for the injuries. On paper and uninjured, Dayton Moore has put together a solid team, so will keep running things.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoWow! Jim F, I agree with most of what you wrote. Particularly, the trade of Luke for another disappointment. However, even if Anibal is signed there is no reason to keep Luke other than to trade him. The Royals have until November 30 to tender him a contract. With Dayton’s penchant for moving quickly in the offseason, that’s more than enough time to get a deal done.
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoThe bottom line is that it’s time to win, and from now on anything short of winning is failure. If we struggle to win 70-75 games in 2013, someone has to be held accountable. I don’t know if that’s Dave Eiland, Ned Yost, Dayton Moore, or someone else, but it has to be somebody.
The first generation of prospects have 1-2 years under their belt. We have a younger, cheaper, and more talented replacement for Jeff Francoeur. We have the payroll flexibility to replace Luke Hochevar. We have enough options at second base that someone should be able to produce there.
No more excuses.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks agoBilly Beane recognizes that health is the major wildcard in professional sports and I think we all know that having Myers and Roy Oswalt in the opening day line-up wouldn’t have us heading to the World Series with the injuries we had and the under performance by a few others beyond Frenchy and Hochevar. There’s excuses in life, then there’s reasons.
Phillip Murphy
7 months, 3 weeks agoI seem to recall a game in Arizona in 2005 where the Royals did that to Greinke.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim F, the injury thing is much overstated. Our position players + DH were relatively healthy. And injuries did not have a big impact on development. The Royals didn’t score because of underperformance. Every team has injuries. If the Royals had no injuries to any pitchers, they still would not have contended. I’m less concerned about the W-L record (since i didnt think we would win this year) than I am about the lack of development from our high draft picks that were expected to be producing by this season (Hosmer, Moose (hitting only), Crow, Montgomery, Gio).
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks agoJW, we lost our two top pitchers, our catcher, our center fielder, and our second baseman for significant amounts of time this year, so I don’t see overstatement.
“The Royals didn’t score because of underperformance.”
That’s a factor that has been mentioned: Frenchy, Yuni/Gio, Hoz for most of the season, Alex early and Moose late lost a lot of games.
” If the Royals had no injuries to any pitchers, they still would not have contended.”
Disagree rather strongly, considering we lost Paulino, Duffy, and Soria and it turned out Sanchez was hurt. 60% of the beginning rotation hurt is a major impact, especially with JaKKKe and Monty as the apparent next tier. If healthy for the full year, I liked our rotation and was comfortable with 85 wins.
Slow development is a better point, Monty is starting to look like a future closer, but Mendoza and Smith have been pleasant surprises and I think Ventura comes up next year before Odorizzi.
Terry Payne
7 months, 3 weeks agoJF - So Mike Montgomery is no longer slated for the rotation? What’s the satus of Lamb? Is he progressing after his surgery?
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoLamb started throwing late this season, he will likely spend the majority of 2013 in AA or possibly AAA. Not a candidate for the rotation until 2014.
Aaron Reese
7 months, 3 weeks ago” According to MLB Trade Rumors, there are 46 pitchers who will be free agents after this year. How many of them are better than Luke? 30? 35? 40?”
About 10, honestly.
You’re ignoring the 8 or 10 players who will be signed on club options. You’ve also not considered that 19 of those guys are 34 years or older, past their primes, and could statistically collapse at any moment. They’re risky and many of them haven’t been all that good lately anyway. The Royals should take a look at them, but don’t expect them to be worthwhile. Roy Oswalt, the most dominant pitcher in the majors just a few years ago is washed up at 35 and on that list. Shawn Marcum has already expressed the opinion that he doesn’t want to play in Kansas City. Rich Harden is basically out of baseball. The Royals surely won’t take back Jonathan Sanchez. Several of the rest could either pitch better or worse than Hochevar, but no guarantees either way; we do know they’d likely cost more (The Royals would push on Blanton, Haren, Liriano, Correia, Matsuzaka). Chien-Ming Wang and Jeff Francis are outright worse pitchers. That list of 46 is now down to eight: Zack Greinke, Jeremy Guthrie, Edwin Jackson, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Saunders, Carlos Villanueva, and Carlos Zambrano. Some aren’t good fits to Kauffman, either. A few other free agents will surely be worth a look despite some extenuating circumstances. So, ten. Maybe twelve.
Moore should aggressively pursue those ten or twelve pitchers, no doubt. However, as I pointed out in my last comment, he will be competing against seven teams that are also aggressively pursuing starting pitching, who all need to fill more than one spot in their rotations, not to mention ALL the rest of teams who are shopping in relative passivity. The prices will go through the roof and even if the Royals match or beat other offers, small market teams don’t have the allure of large markets.
We’re not sure what Hochevar will do next year. His ERA has been 5.11 in the last three years, but varied. Pitching performances from year to year are unpredictable. Francisco Liriano surrounded a 5.80 ERA season with two years of ERAs under 4.00, and then went back to pitching 5.00+ ERA seasons. Jonathan Sanchez suddenly became a has-been at 29, when his fastball lost an alarming amount of velocity. Some of the pitchers who have better numbers than Hochevar will be disappointments. Some will play above their heads. I’m not even sure that releasing Hochevar isn’t the right move, but don’t think it’s a simple decision and hand-wave away the complexity of the issue.
We can only hope that Royals scouts spot all the right things this off-season. We also have to hope that the front office makes good moves…also that players want to come here. Then we won’t need to worry about Hochevar.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks agoTerry, Monty as closer is my guess based on his progress. I see him as no threat to start in the big leagues for KC.
Daniel, anyone sharing info on the rehabs? Saw that Lamb was throwing after the ankle injury and assume he continues work over the winter, but haven’t seen anything on Duffy, Paulino, or Soria as far as timetables go. Lamb’s rehab seems to be going slow but Blake Wood is ahead of schedule.
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim F, I follow Lamb’s dad on Twitter and he regularly updates everyone on John’s progress.
Aaron, we’re all pretty sure what Hochever will do next year, and that is not pitch well. I agree that maybe half of that list of 46 pitchers are risks (and a handful are worse), but they represent better options than bringing back Luke.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim F, even the Royals weren’t too thrilled with their starting pitching. But the problem is we’re 12th in runs scored and the pitching wasn’t going to be good enough to make up for that. Paulino was a candidate for the fifth spot who didn’t win it and Duffy was number five. With hindsight, they may have been our best two pitchers but when sizing up the rotation at the start of the season that was not the consensus. Paulino is very much unproven over the long term. He has had good stretches before but, despite amazing stuff, two organizations have given up on him. The Royals got him for a bag of balls. Duffy wasn’t pitching all that well. His ERA was decent but he didn’t make it through the fifth in two of his last three starts ( not counting his las game). He had a continuing problem of high pitch counts. Not the stuff that could overcome an anemic offense.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoInjuries provide a great opportunity for “what ifs”. Imagine if Frenchy and Hosmer had (God forbid) season ending injuries in spring training. Combined, they are about two games WORSE than replacement level. It’s not a stretch to think that the Royals could have replaced those at-bats with a win or two above replacement. That would give us the possibility of 78 wins this year. And if Hoz and Frenchy weren’t injured, we would say, we easily win 8 to ten more games. And then there’s Perez, Soria, Duffy, Paulino, Cain … Wow! If not for injuries, we’d have won it all.
Injuries are part of the real world. Records are kept and success is judged in the real world. Every team suffers injuries, particularly to pitchers. You have to be good enough to overcome them.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks agoAaron, exceptional piece. I would add that Brandon McCarthy, perhaps the best of the remainder, has ongoing injury problems as well as recent brain surgery.
” You have to be good enough to overcome them.”
In a perfect world. In the real world Paulino didn’t start the season due to tightness, but everyone assumed he would be back and continue last season’s production, which he did before his elbow blew. I thought him clearly our top pitcher last winter and saw enough in Duffy to expect him to make a major step up.
“Wow! If not for injuries, we’d have won it all.”
85 wins was my prediction, factoring for normal injuries and regression.
“But the problem is we’re 12th in runs scored and the pitching wasn’t going to be good enough to make up for that.”
Cain, Perez, and Getz hurt had something to do with that. The expectation in the off-season was that the defense would be better with Cain and Perez and that the offense would at least stay at 4.5rpg, so a 4.5 RA rotation with a 3 RA bullpen would put the team in fine shape.
“when sizing up the rotation at the start of the season that was not the consensus.”
Not in the blogosphere, no.
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim F, let me reiterate the same point I made to Aaron - even if half of that list from MLBTR represents serious risk, it still represents less risk than bringing back Hochevar.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim, you’re being obtuse now and assuming away all injuries. Our poor offense is not the result of an abnormal number of injuries. Perez wasn’t expected to hit this well this early — he”s been a very pleasant surprise. Hosmer, Frency and Moose haven’t produced over the course of the season. And Gordon can’t score without help. The corner spots on this team have to produce to score runs. DH, both corner outfield spots, 1B, 3B and SS have had amazingly few injuries.
The Royals said Paulino was among several candidates, including Duffy, for the fifth spot. I don’t know or care what the blogosphere said. Paulino had a 7.71 ERA in spring training; Duffy got the fifth spot and Paulino went to the DL. My point is the Royals considered them numbers five and six on the depth chart.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim, also you’re, either now or for most of the season, arguing for the sake of arguing. You’ve said all season (and I agreed) that it wouldn’t matter who we had pitching (even Zach), we would still lose (2 -1 was your favorite score I believe) because of our offense. Now you strongly disagree with your season-long position?
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks agoDaniel, I disagree. That list is going to be expensive and in the case of Dan Haren, just as an example, he’ll cost over twice what Luke will for little improvement. Of the top folks on the list, we can assume that Zack has no interest in coming back and that some of the rest have no interest in KC in the AL. We may be looking at only one or two guys we could sign, probably for more than market in cost and years, like with Guillen and Meche. I hope for Guthrie and Sanchez, maybe Jackson if Alex is traded for prospects to clear payroll, but Guthrie is probably the surest thing with Sanchez heavily pursued by more attractive teams and Jackson preferring to stay in the NL. I’ve heard Villanueva’s name tossed around, he should be cheap, $5 mil for less production than Hoch, about the same FIP, little better K/9, not near the speed or stuff, 29 yo next month, reliever mainly.
Aaron did a good breakdown of the list of availables and I agree with him that there will be seven or eight impact pitchers available with thirty teams pursuing them, so Hochevar may very well survive. I wonder if you think Jon Sanchez was less risk than Luke Hochevar? Sanchez illuminates the risks of pitchers. This won’t be easy and Luke may be kept in the trunk as a spare tire.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks ago“Now you strongly disagree with your season-long position?”
No. You might notice that I said that the pre-season prediction, fairly widely held, was that the defense would be better, the office the same,and that Duffy and Paulino would pitch well. The injuries hurt all three elements of the team, so positions change to fit the facts of the moment.
” My point is the Royals considered them numbers five and six on the depth chart.”
At that moment, due to Paulino’s arm and Mendoza’s lack of options,but Paulino had become a known quantity and Duffy showed signs of a break out season, which is why I considered them the top two before the season started. Before injury both produced as expected. Royals don’t always tell everything they know.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoNo, Jim, you just strongly disagreed. You didn’t say any of that. My point was that it wouldn’t matter whether we had any pitching injuries because in the real world we didn’t score enough runs. You strongly disagreed because you liked our rotation. You said nothing about offense or defense. It’s up there in black and white. Go look.
In the context of the rotation, which is hardly a secret, your comment about the Royals not telling everything they know is lame.
On Hochevar, we’re talking about the worst starter in MLB this year. We don’t need one the top 7 or 8 free agents to replace him. Aaron dismissed a number of free agent opportunities out of hand and there are other sources of players. The Royals will need to be creative. Look at guys like Scott Baker (dismissed by Aaron). He had TJ surgery in 2011. He’s throwing on flat ground now. The twins are not going to exercise their $9 million plus option but would like to keep him.
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoBlanton is a run better than Luke. How is he a push? Correia also is almost a run better. Ervin Santana is a possibility if his option is declined as rumored. I’m sure there are others.
Jim Fetterolf
7 months, 3 weeks ago“In the context of the rotation, which is hardly a secret, your comment about the Royals not telling everything they know is lame.”
Been an ongoing whine all year that the Royals don’t tell everything they know, so I’ll stick with my statement.
“He had TJ surgery in 2011. He’s throwing on flat ground now.”
He’s had two surgeries, 91mph FB, good K/BB before the injuries, he could come cheap, but I doubt there would be dancing in the streets.
“The Royals will need to be creative.”
Paulino, Guthrie, and Mendoza?
Jim Wilson
7 months, 3 weeks agoAre you kidding? Replacing Hochevar with my mailman would cause spontaneous conga lines to break out all over town. I agree the Royals have been creative. Also understand the Royals being secretive but in the context of our discussion you’re flailing.
I share your concern that the Royals may have no success in the FA market for a middle or front end starter or two. In fact, I think it’s likely they won’t. But there are many other options, FA and otherwise including trades. We are going nowhere if our 2013 rotation is our current rotation minus Guthrie.
Jason Ray
7 months, 3 weeks agoI logged on to see what people were saying about Hochevar’s latest debacle, and this discussion was better than I had hoped for.
I just wanted to comment on Jim’s line, “Replacing Hochevar with my mailman would cause spontaneous conga lines to break out all over town.” I seriously would prefer to see anyone to Hochevar (even Jim’s mailman) take the mound every fifth day, as long as the Royals don’t give him 128 chances like they Hochevar.
I despise having to see him every fifth day so much that I’m not going to renew my season tickets. I’m going to wait as late as I can, but I don’t see how anything will happen before my deadline is passed. I wish I knew that the Royals were replacing Hoch with Jim’s mailman so I get go ahead and renew my tickets.
Aaron Reese
7 months, 3 weeks agoJim, I didn’t dismiss anyone out of hand. I just didn’t have time to break down every single available pitcher. I guess I could.
Because, as I mentioned, pitching is extremely difficult to predict one year to the next, I based most of my estimates upon the last three years, as long as nothing was mechanically wrong with them or they lost velocity on their fastballs. Scott Baker was out with TJ surgery. I thought it would be clear that the Royals won’t target him. They already have so many guys out with TJ, they shouldn’t be willing to add another. Every time they add a guy coming back from TJ surgery, they are increasing the likelihood that one of them will be incapable of pitching well. Also, the Twins are desperate for starting pitching, for $9 million, they may be willing to re-sign him.
If I were in the Royals front office, I’m not sure who I’d be willing to trade, and if I’m the front office in control of a decent starting pitcher in a strangled market, I’d demand an awful lot. Maybe the Royals are willing to part with Moustakas, Hosmer, Butler, Escobar, Gordon or Myers, in addition to several prospects, but I doubt it. I wouldn’t be.
If everyone in the front office is truly willing to accept responsibility for tanking the rotation for half a year while they figure out who is best suited for the roles, then fine. Cast out Hoch, bench Chen and hope the younger guys will outperform them. Good luck. I think Mendoza can replicate his production for this year, but he may regress to his mid-2012 version. Then the Royals will have three holes to fill. Guthrie will probably pitch at a 3.7ish ERA. I hope he doesn’t get injured, then the Royals will have Odorizzi, Smith, Adcock, and Teaford for half the year. Maybe they throw Crow in the rotation or promote Verdugo. They may have to rely on Mazzaro, God help them. Who knows? Depth is important.
I would rather we had a rockin’ rotation. I hope Dayton Moore finds a way to land two or three decent starters. Maybe he’ll make the most of a guy who’s 34+ years of age. There are a lot of ifs to just cast off a healthy starting pitcher, no matter how much you hate his guts. If they can do it without adverse consequences, great, but options are limited.
If Hochevar comes back next year and has a 6.50 ERA, he’ll be designated for assignment, and I won’t be surprised. If he comes back with a 4.50-4.90 ERA, I still won’t be surprised, and the Royals will have a 5th/spot-starter. I don’t care that it’s Hochevar. I’m just looking at his track record and he’s unique.
Is there any middle ground to be had? Would people be happier if Dayton Moore tried to work out a performance based contract extension and if he doesn’t agree, release him before November 30th? Or release him and try to resign him for the $3 million?
Daniel Wesley
7 months, 3 weeks agoAs Rany has pointed out so eloquently, Hochevar has been historically bad over his career. “Middle ground” is wishing him a happy life while he spends the personal fortune he has amassed.
Aaron Reese
7 months, 2 weeks agoPerhaps I should have pointed out that trying to work out a performance based contract extension or releasing and resigning were both Rany’s ideas on 810.
Gaines Arnold
7 months, 2 weeks agoAaron, I have disagreed with much of what you had to say even if it was logical and well thought out. However, I very much like the idea of signing Hoch to a performance laden contract if they resign him at all. Good points by most, but JF continues to surprise with his ability to apologize for the Royals FO.