Games » Minnesota Twins
Sep12The argument continues
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
Recently, a lot of people have expressed opinions about Luke Hochevar. Wednesday night’s game against the Twins probably won’t settle any arguments.
Luke won for the first time in a while, battled without his best stuff, but gave up five earned runs in five innings, two of them walks that scored.
When you go through Luke’s starts game by game, it’s clear he is about twice as likely to give you a good outing as a bad one, but the bad ones are so bad, they skew the overall numbers and provide ammunition for Hochevar’s critics.
Some people are up in arms about Hochevar’s disagreement with pitching coach Dave Eiland about the use of his cutter. Eiland thinks the cutter is having a negative effect on other pitches. Hochevar wants to keep the pitch and concentrate on eliminating its negative effects.
I couldn’t tell you who’s right, I don’t know enough about pitching, and I’ve never stood on the mound myself. Former Royals pitcher David Cone once said it didn’t matter what pitch he threw as long as he executed the pitch correctly.
An old pitching coach (whose name I can’t recall) once asked, “In what situation do you want to throw your fourth-best pitch?” If Luke has so many pitches, he can’t command all of them. That’s a problem. If he’s been tinkered with so much he’s confused, that’s also a problem.
Stay tuned. This isn’t over yet.
Game notes
• In a 1-2 count, Hochevar hung a curve ball to Minnesota’s Denard Span. Span tripled, and Luke started the game with a runner on third and nobody out. Mike Moustakas made a nice play to freeze Span at third and then throw out Ben Revere at first base. Hochevar looked as though he might get the second out of the inning when he painted a fastball low and away on Josh Willingham but didn’t get the call. Willingham singled, and Hoch didn’t get away with the hung curve.
• In the third inning, Hochevar appeared to be nibbling at the edges of the strike zone. He gave up a single to Span and then walked the next three hitters. If you’re keeping count, that’s one more runner than there are bases. Hochevar walked in a run, one of the most helpless feelings in the world … or at least in the world of sports.
• According to sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman, good pitchers don’t avoid contact. They don’t allow contact. They force contact. That’s a mind-set that eludes many pitchers.
• The second Twins run of the inning came when Jamey Carroll hit a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lorenzo Cain. Ryan Doumit tagged third base and scored. I couldn’t tell whether it was intentional, but Mike Moustakas appeared to move into Doumit’s line of sight. This is an old third-baseman’s trick: stand in front of the runner and force him to look around you to see the catch. It may not result in an out, but slowing a runner by a step can’t hurt.
• Catchers have use a visual shorthand to communicate with the pitcher. That way they aren’t constantly out at the mound. After one of Luke’s walks, Salvador Perez touched his shoulder. That’s a signal to the pitcher that he’s “opening up.”
• If a right-handed pitcher’s glove side shoulder rotates open toward the first-base line too soon, that will drop the throwing side arm down, put the hand more on the side of the ball, not the top, and make the throwing arm late. The short version goes like this: The pitcher will miss up and in to right-handed hitters. That was where Hochevar was missing. That’s why Perez signaled to Luke that he was opening up.
• During all this non-strike throwing, at some point I believe manager Ned Yost got reliever Everett Teaford up in the bullpen. I haven’t talked with Ned, but it wouldn’t be the first time that Ned used a reliever to send a message to the guy on the mound: Start throwing strikes.
• The Royals offense opened up in the fifth inning. Eric Hosmer walked for the second time in the game (often an indication that the hitter is seeing the ball well). Johnny Giavotella singled. David Lough singled. Alcides Escobar singled. Alex Gordon singled. Billy Butler singled with a runner on third. Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas popped up. Then Lorenzo Cain picked them up with a two-out single.
• There are times when you can see what this lineup might become: nine guys who have a chance to hurt you. When a pitcher feels there is no break in the bottom third of the order, it becomes a very challenging game.
• With a runner on second base, Twins catcher Drew Butera set up away, then moved back inside. That might have been more about the runner on second base (Billy Butler) than the hitter at the plate. The runner on second might signal to the hitter what pitch is on its way (if he can decipher the sign sequence), but it’s much simpler to signal location. The runner just leans more on one foot than the other. The hitter sees the runner do that and knows where the catcher is setting up. At some point, the hitter has to concentrate on the pitcher, so a catcher who moves late can upset the scheme.
• After his offense gave him a 6-3 lead going into the bottom of the fifth, Hochevar needed a “shutdown” inning. If your side scores big and then the pitcher lets the other team come right back, it sends everybody the message that nothing is decided. The game is till up for grabs. Luke allowed the Twins to score two runs.
• At one point, Moustakas chased a single all the way down the left-field line, picked it up and flipped it to Gordon so he could throw the ball back to the infield. Here is what happened: They were playing the hitter to pull and had a left-handed shift on. The hitter went the other way, and Mike was smart enough to realize Alex wasn’t going to be where the ball was hit. Gordo also was shifted toward right field. That’s why Moose took off after the ball.
• Royals reliever Tim Collins threw a 93-mph fastball up and in to Revere and dumped the Twins right-fielder on his backside. The next pitch, predictably enough, was down and away. Not many hitters will lean out to hit a pitch after having one whizz by their heads. The guys who do get a lot of respect. The guys who don’t are human.
How to cheat while everyone is watching
I was watching a Royals game the other night, and the camera showed an opposing pitcher rubbing up a baseball. That reminded me of Dan Quisenberry. Quiz once showed me how some pitchers cheat. All it takes is nerve and a thick thumbnail.
When a pitcher gets a new ball and rubs it up, watch his thumbs. If one is arched up, the pitcher might be pulling the trick that Dan showed me: using a thumbnail to scrape and raise the baseball’s seams. Higher seams mean more wind resistance and a better break on a curve or slider.
It takes guts to throw a breaking pitch in a crucial situation and even more guts to cheat while everyone is watching.
Patience
Thursday night promises to run late (I’ve got some scheduling problems), but Il eventually will get the game notes and stats posted. It may mid-morning Friday before it happens, but it will happen eventually. I hope.
Royals coach Rusty Kuntz explains how he teaches bunting
Kansas City Royals first base coach Rusty Kuntz explains to the The Star's Lee Judge some bunting techniques he works on with players. September 14, 2012 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Perez
Butler
Escobar
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoPlease do NOT under ANY circumstances, consider trading Salvy or Esky. To me, these guys are the Bench and the Concepcion components of a potential Big BLUE machine.
I would suggest that b/T Mous, Gordo, Hos and, potentially, even Gia, this team has the makings of a long-term competitive team. I wouldn’t use the term dynasty, b/c the financial backing will NEVER be there. Still, the infrasctructure is right there, staring us right straight in the face.
All that’s missing is the starting pitching. This team has a superb interior defense, two corner outfielders who consistently lead their league in assists, a third who has great range. The bullpen is as strong as the Big Red Machine of the mid-to-late 70’s as any bullpen extant.
I would rather see the Royals take their chances with mediocre SP, than break up ANY of this nucleus in the search thereof.
As memory serves, the SP of the Cincinatti teams of the Big Red Machine were not that overwhelming. It was just that the REST of the team was so superior, the SP was almost an afterthought.
Tim Bruggeman
8 months, 1 week agoActually, higher seams cause LESS wind resistance. The seams make turbulent air flow, which corresponds to a thinner boundary layer, which translates to lower resistance to air flow.
Roger Alderman
8 months, 1 week agoHochevar has his moments, but those that keep defending him continue to give him too much credit. Lee says he gives 2 good starts for every bad one and I’ve seen others claim it’s 3 out of 4 good starts. He has 12 quality starts out of 29 this year. While some of those other 17 might be decent (I see 2 that were 5 innings with 1-2 runs), I don’t see how you can say it’s more than 50-50 that he’ll give you a good start.
Jeff Frost
8 months, 1 week agoI say Hoch is like a Meatloaf song- “2 out of 3 ain’t bad”. Not good enough at the MLB level. He is in the top-five for highest ERAs ever for pitchers with the number of innings pitched. He has shown flashes of brilliance- think Tampa Bay, but his inconsistency will kill a contending team. He has all the talent in the World,but I think it is time for him to hone and development on another team. A change of scenery would be good for Luke, and Royals fans.
Jim Kissane
8 months, 1 week agoWith this team – and probably with any team – coachability is just as important as results. You can’t have one player following his own coaching regimen and expect the others simply to do as they’re told, even if that player is an All-Star (and, in my experience, the best All-Stars are the ones who do not separate themselves from the team unit). Hochevar has spent his entire career re-defining the word “abysmal” and the only reason the Royals are still interested in him is that he has shown occasional flashes of brilliance. Understand that this does not mean to imply that the rest of the MLB world is beating a path to his agent’s door.
Hochevar needs to admit that his career to date has not earned him the right to dictate terms to Dave Eilert and the Royals – if, indeed, anyone’s career ever does. It’s time for him to show that he’s willing to try someone else’s approach for his own betterment as well as that of the team.
Or how about this – give Hochevar the option of being self-employed. If he follows the direction of the Royals’ coaching staff, he gets paid according to his contract. If he follows the beat of his own drummer, then he gets whatever loose change he can find under the seats at The K.
Brian Grant
8 months, 1 week agoSalvador Perez is the only untradeable Royal, in my opinion. That guy is a genuine stud, and having a stud catcher is the single most important thing on a winning team.
Sign Guthrie to be a number 3. Trade Billy Butler and two upper tier prospects for a 1 or 2 starter, then sign a free agent 1 or 2 pitchers in the off season.
Do that, and the Royals are a favorite to win the central next year.
However, this is the Royals…so that is a pipe dream. Guthrie will sign elsewhere, we’ll bring in a washed up nobody and call him our #2, we’ll bring up Odirizzi who isn’t quite the stud everyone thinks he is, bring back Hochevar, sit on all our prospects (few of which will pan out), and lose 90-100 games again next year.
And the wheels on the bus go ‘round and ‘round….
Gaines Arnold
8 months, 1 week agoTerry, I looked up the Big Red Machine and found that your memory was pretty good. They had seven guys who had an OPS+ consistently higher than 110 and two guys (Concepcion and Geronimo) were the typical great glove weak offense types at SS and CF. Overall their pitching staff was pretty weak also. Actually an interesting comp to the Royals except that they did have several guys every year that won at least 15 games. Part of this was due to the offense, but part of it was due to a few better than average SPs also. The Royals still need the latter to compete. And, joining the Luke conversation, he does not seem to be it as he is consistently below league average.
Curtis Ruder
8 months, 1 week agoERA+ is a statistic that adjusts a pitcher’s earned run average for his ballpark and his league. The average MLB pitcher will always have an ERA+ of 100. Hochevar’s is 80, which means he has been 20% worse than the average pitcher in his career. That is the sixth worst among all pitchers with at least 120 starts.
It gives me no joy to say this, but he simply isn’t good enough to get the ball as a starting pitcher every five days in the major leagues.
I spent a couple of hours playing around with baseball career statistics, and could not find a single example of a pitcher who had an ERA+ of 80 or less for even his first 80 starts who then ever had a season with an ERA+ of 100. Unless I missed someone, which is certainly possible, it would be literally unprecedented in major league baseball history for Hochevar to have an average season at any point in his career going forward.
Now, just because it has never happened doesn’t mean it can’t. But at the same time, gambling on it for another season would just be throwing another season away, in Butler and Gordon’s prime while Moustakas and Hosmer are under the team’s control. There aren’t many of those left, and we can’t afford to waste another.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 1 week agoI discovered an interesting split in Luke’s stats…
When the team gives him 0-2 runs of support, his line is: 61.2 Innings, 3.94 ERA
When the team gives him 3 or more runs of supports, his line is: 104.2 innings, 6.36 ERA
I’d love to hear everyone’s interpretations of this.
Don Aubry
8 months, 1 week agoMaybe the Royals can trade Luke to Colorado. Think lightning can strike twice?
Jim Silcott
8 months, 1 week agoLuke was all over the place last night with his delivery. When he opens his shoulder up to left-handed hitters, he falls off towards first base and the pitch is up and away. If he would use the same delivery for every pitch and not fall off the mound, he would be much more consistent. If you watch Verlander, his delivery is the same no matter what he throws. They said Luke tips his pitches and if you study his delivery, yo can see how he does it. I think too many people have been tinkering with him and have him all messed up. It’s like when you’re learning to bowl and everyone tells you something different to try. He needs to not think so much on the mound. I’m not sure who is in charge of the Royals organizational pitching, but they need to be replaced. They have a lot of high draft picks that aren’t making it to the upper levels. I’m not sure who (maybe Larry Carter), but someoen has totally messed up Mike Montgomery. He’s not the same kid that I saw pitch in Burlington. If the Royals want to be successful, they need Leo Mazzone or someone that knows about developing pitchers to be in charge! That’s my two cents plus some. Thanks Lee!
Joel Kallem
8 months, 1 week agoDaniel, that is a very interesting split and seems to point to a concentration deficit although in several cases the other team has jumped on him before we scored. Hoch is a puzzle and I would think we might look for a trade for another pitcher who might be struggling in order to give both a change in scenery. Sometimes that works out to a win - win situation.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoI think it’s time to shift Hochevar to the ‘pen for the rest of the year to work on getting some consistency back. He has closer stuff and maybe the change of scenery would help him lock in some consistency.
Curtis, just took a glance at Martin’s Game Scores and was reminded that Luke does have four 70+ efforts this year. That is the ceiling that keeps getting him more chances and that average stats can’t see. But I’ve said that before.
Aaron Reese
8 months, 1 week agoLuke is an entirely unique pitcher, so comparisons don’t do much good. It comes down to value. How valuable is he? How much money is he likely to get during arbitration? Is he worth that amount or not? I don’t think it does any good to try and argue that he’s “good.” But it’s essential to determine what he’s good at and how much money those things are worth.
First off, he has not a been a “good” pitcher. He has not an anchor in the rotation. That’s an old narrative and should have been discarded in 2009. The fact that the coaches keep saying it doesn’t help. He’s not anything better than a back-end starter and he should be evaluated as such.
Lee, I’m not sure how you get 2/3 decent starts. Unless you consider 4 runs in six innings as decent, but that’s an ERA of 6.00. I would say that Hochevar pitches well 1/2 of the time, which is all you can hope for out of the 5th starter in your rotation. He’s good at getting first pitch strikes. He’s fairly efficient, getting a lot of outs on 3 pitches or less. He also has a surprisingly high number of 1-2-3 innings, which rests the defense. He’ll pitch 180 innings, making the Royals roster decisions easier. Innings pitched is highly undervalued and guys who can chew innings are rare commodities. Those are all things to consider when filling out the bottom of the rotation.
Is that worth $3.5 million? Yes, absolutely. Is it worth $5 million in a market with slim, in-demand starting pitching? Not to the Washington Nationals, but for the Royals? Maybe.
He’s making it harder to make a case for him with each passing start, but I think there still is one to be made. For now.
Aaron Reese
8 months, 1 week agoDaniel Wesley, Luke doesn’t pitch better in games with less run support. That’s not really what happens.
Luke gives ups tons of runs and gives the opposing teams quite a bit of leeway. They then just start throwing strikes with the plan of letting the Royals get themselves out, because a few runs won’t hurt them. I’ve watched teams do it all year, and not just when Hoch is pitching. But the Royals have a strong offense that is young. They don’t do well with breaking stuff low and away, but if a pitcher is just hurling fastballs over the strike zone, they know what to do with those.
So, when you see all that run support, it’s actually from the Royals playing catch up after Luke has already blown the game.
David Zacharia
8 months, 1 week agoAbreu is getting screwed. He is much more valuable to the Royals than Giavotella. Abreu can play 2B, SS and 3B. He is a far better hitter and second baseman than Giavotella who can only play 2B and he’s an average second baseman.
Abreu and Getz should be the candidates for 2B next year.
It makes absolutely no sense to play Frechy. We all know what he can do. Dyson and Lough should be alternating at RF and sometimes relieving Gordon and Cain.
The two points above are obvious. I like Francour but what is best for the Royals is him on the bench the rest of the season.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoAaron, very good work.
For the rest of us, dropped by Dan Brooks’ excellent site for this:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=09&day=12&year=2012&game=gid20120912kcamlbminmlb1/&prevGame=gid20120912kcamlbminmlb1/&prevDate=0912&pitchSel=460024.xml
Two things I noticed: Luke was getting a “fair” strike zone, so the walks were on him, and Luke’s curve had more horizontal break than vertical, not good for a pitcher reputed to have a 12-6 curve. I think it was Eiland who mentioned the drop in arm slot affecting the CB.
Another thing, Luke’s cutter was thrown five times for one strike and had less movement than his 4-seam fastball. Luke was predominantly an FB-CB pitcher last night, totally about 90% of pitches. Odd because his change was moving and had good speed separation.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 1 week agoDavid, Abreu is in the running as the utility infielder. Giavotella is in the running as the everyday 2B. As such, they’re not really comparable.
Giavotella has the highest ceiling out of the three and as such should be given the longest look for an everyday job.
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoI’m beginning to think that what Luke Hochevar needs more than anything is tenacity, i.e. guts.
By that, I mean the ability to tough it out, even when he doesn’t have his best stuff.
RD Porter
8 months, 1 week agoManagement must think Luke has an upside equal to a Busby or a Leonard or a Cone. I think Luke’s upside is more like a Gubicza (10 to 15 wins a year and an ERA around 4 – a fifth starter kind of guy). That’s fine IF he were actually at that level instead of ‘almost’.
At his age he is not going get any better physically (some athletes actually begin to decline at his age).
He can improve mentally but how long do we wait? It’s one thing when you say we need to give a 23 year old ‘more time’ or we say a 25 year old is ‘almost’ there or maybe even say ‘give him another year’ when he’s 27. He’s 29 and has been given more chances than perhaps any other pitcher in MLB history.
Yes it would suck if he went to another team and all of a sudden he figured everything out and became a star. But it also sucks for him to use a roster spot and perform at the level he is performing at.
For Luke personally a change of scenery might be just what the doctor ordered. It might give his psyche a jolt that would wake him up (see Guthrie). Letting him go is the humane thing to do even if it means some other club will reap the benefits of our suffering. To keep saying ‘almost’ or ‘next year’ is not helping us or him. In fact KC sports fans in general are tired of hearing “next year”. What ever happened to NOW.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoDaniel, before his injury Abreu was a top prospect, so will be in the running for 2B. He put up good AAA numbers and is a better glove. 2B won’t be a gimme next spring, lot of competition. Chris Colon and Rey Navarro both did well for their brief visit to AAA, Irving Falu did well at Omaha and KC, and KC was four games over .500 when Getz started, as I recall. I’ve heard that Navarro is the best glove of the bunch.
Having said that, Gio is looking better, Eddie Rodriguez apparently finding a fix for his slow jump, alligator arms, and iron hands while he looks more relaxed and “in the ‘zone” at the plate, passing Frenchy and Hosmer on BA and closing in on Moose. He has possibilities, just has to seize his opportunity like his competitors have.
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoI know it makes him sound more girlish, but Johnny’s name is actually GiAvatella, not GiOvatella. So shouldn’t we be calling him GiA?
BTW, I think GiA is on his way to claiming the 2B job. IF, big IF, he doesn’t get traded. I am a big Chris Getz fan, but if Gia plays his way in, them I’m all for it. I just hope Chris doesn’t injure himself out of a career.
zack_delmont
8 months, 1 week agoI like the potential of Luke, and this site has helped me see Luke’s potential with a new perspective. I have grown to respect Eiland. We know the SPs were a deficit going into the season so the results are not surprising. We can disagree with the coaching staff, but they are not idiots. By any means. I think there is some truth to Lee’s citation that it doesn’t matter what pitch is thrown as long as it is well executed. For me, it comes down to execution. Luke has GOT TO EXECUTE. He doesn’t for some reason consistently. Inconsistency is not an appealing trait.
I think the positive PR coming out of the Front Office is simply to make Luke seem important to KC by other teams. Same with playing Frenchy. If guys appear disposable, they have no trade value. I could be wrong, but there may be some Front Office gaming going on here.
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoSend Luke to a sports psycologist in the off-season. Let him clear his head of all the negativity. get him the ability to focus. In other words, get his mind right.
Then let him rip in spring training, as a non-tendered, non-rostered invitee and THEN see what happens.
Make the dude hungry, see what happens. Pay me 3.5 mil/yr, guaranteed, I lose my edge, unless I am a super-competitive athlete.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week ago“What ever happened to NOW.”
Now requires talent and good health. Had Paulino and Duffy stayed healthy, Luke would have pitched himself into the bullpen or a trade by now, in spite of his occasional “ace” performances. By next trade deadline he may well be in a different role or gone, depending on recovery times for Duffy, Paulino, and Lamb and depending on whether Guthrie can be re-signed and depending on whether we can sign an FA pitcher and depending on whether JaKKKe can take the next step, or Verdugo or Ventura. Lot of variables at the moment and depending on how they play out, Luke’s inconsistency may be acceptable for ‘13 or he may be expendable or he may be the closer, which I would try him at starting now by using him for set up for the rest of the season. A bullpen stint did wonders for Zack, might as well try it while he’s still spent money.
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoJF - have to disagree w/yr bullpen theory for Hoch. Already, IMO, one of the best bullpens extant, I’d hate to see it polluted by sending a failed starter there.
It’s time to spit or get off the pot re: Hoch. Youth always has the promise of success, but Hoch is no longer young, in BB terms.
What he does w/Hoch will probably tell us what kind of GM GMDM is. I suspect that Moore’s future w/the team hinges on his decision.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 1 week agoTerry, I thought the same thing about GiA vs. GiO, but Johnny calls himself GiO, and his family owns a restaurant called Gio’s Pizza. Apparently Gio is the official nickname.
Joel Kallem
8 months, 1 week agoTerry, although I agree with you in concept, keep in mind we cannot force Hoch to do anything (including I guess make him abandon a certain pitch) so the call to go to a sports psychologist is his although the front office can help if he requests it. Also, if he is non-tendered, non-invited where he goes in spring training becomes his choice not the Royals. We either need to sign him (trade?) or dump him at the end of the year.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoTerry, relievers are failed starters. Hoch’s stuff is a lot like Soria’s and a 94mph closer with six pitches has some use. I’ld only use him to start innings because he doesn’t pitch well from the stretch.
As for Moore’s future, Luke is a non-issue. Team health is an issue, as is the development of Odorizzi, Myers, and Ventura, as is whether or not Hosmer and Moustakas and Giavotella can produce. Luke has value and can be traded to some GM that sees the occasional ace performances and thinks that his pitching coach can fix Hochevar, so will be tendered.
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoDaniel - OK, GiO it iz.
Joel - my point iz - the unrealized talent is the most frustrating. Convince the guy that either he gets his “head” together, or cut him loose.
JF - disagree that relievers are failed starters in this day and age. Closers are recruited out of college. Get your point re: potential trade value. Who’da thought we’d get anything for Sanchez other than a duffel bag full of baseballs?
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoJF - further point re: Hoch, etc.
Since Holland is, at the very least, a serviceable closer, if Soria comes back healthy, should we give him a shot at making the rotation? I think I remember you saying that they had once considered Jack a potential starter.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoTerry, there was some talk at the deadline of Luke and Brox for Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta plus Britton. That’s a change of scenary deal I would make, Arrieta comps closely to Hoch and has the arm and stuff to be good, just hasn’t been able to get his production to match his peripherals, same problem Hoch and Davies have had. I’ld try to get Arrieta in the off-season, trade Gio and maybe Lough for him.
As for “failed starters”, I was using Dayton Moore’s judgement and I agree with him. If Greg Holland could do his thing for seven innings every five days he’ld be in the rotation and looking at a future $25 mil/yr contract. Same for Tim Collins, maybe even Aaron Crow, a certified failed starter.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoTerry, Jack has the pitches to start and that was always an idea on the shelf. I expect the Royals to buy out his option, then sign him to a minor league contract and at least take a look at him as a starter. Second TJS makes any scenario questionable, haven’t seen any rehab information on him.
On Holland, he’s a good enough closer, although he is bringing back memories of Broxton, but he is great as a fireman, the guy you bring in with runners on 2nd and 3rd who will get you out of the inning with no runs. To me that is a much more valuable reliever than a closer is. Hoch profiles better as closer, start from the wind, but would also work as a 7th or 8th inning set man, come in at the beginning of the inning.
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoJF- So, to recap, you would re-sign Hoch at what, 2MM to be the next Aaron Crow?
Love your plan re: Jack.
Re: Arrieta, I’d a pulled the pin on that initial grenade of a deal in a New York nanosecond. Backup trade, Gio AND Lough, eh? Lough strikes me as serviceable, cheap 4th OF, plus methinx Gio could be on the cusp of a potential LT 2b.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoHoch will sign at about $4.5 mil and I actually see him as the next Jack Soria as he has multiple pitches, compared to Crow’s two, and has a little better control and the ability to vary speed on his FB. That’s worth $4.5 mil to me and enhances trade value if he can do it. I would prefer him as closer over set or fireman, think it fits him better, and frees up Holland for fireman and leaves Crow as a ROOGY.
I do like Lough, been suggesting for months that he gets the call before Myers, but he’s a little old and has Dyson ahead of him, who is faster and a better defender and is turning into a decent hitter. Lough’s on the 40-man and space there will be at a premium this winter, so if he can’t win a job we’ll have to trade him or lose him Rule 5 to a team like the Reds who desperately need a serviceable LF.
Gio’s more interesting, if his recent hitting surge continues and if Coach Rodriguez has fixed his fielding, I keep him, but it is September.
Terry Payne
8 months, 1 week agoJF - so, you’re saying Crow has to come up with a 3rd pitch to be a starter?
I agree re: Dyson as possibly 4th OF, AND Base Running specialist. That would be a nice combo.
I’m thinking that bar a collapse the rest of the season, Gio has a lock on 2b. Which would make Getzie trade bait (may the baseball gods forgive me).
If Getzie would just be kind enough to leave a training video on how to bunt and how/when to move baserunners, I’d feel SO much better.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoCrow needs a third, that’s consensus, has been for a couple of years, the need for an effective third pitch, so hitters can’t sit on his not-great FB and very good slider. He throws other pitches, but not that well. Lee asked him about his change grip last year and Crow showed him three. “Why three?” “None of them work.” Also wonder about his endurance, seems to fade in the second half.
Agree on someone being traded, with Colon and Navarro knocking on the door things will get crowded at 2nd. Getzie could find a job, he’s got a lot to offer IF Gio can seize his opportunity. If Gio doesn’t take it, some other GM may be blinded by Omaha stats and think his coaches can fix him.
Jay Hall
8 months, 1 week agoSeveral things
Hochevar should be non tendered. Simply put, he’s too inconsistent to be anything more than a fourth or fifth starter and, given that one of the largest factors in arbitration is innings (with much less weight given to things like ERA and such), he’s likely to get a raise into the $5M range. That’s too much for a starter of his caliber, especially when it appears that guys like Mendoza, Smith and maybe even Teaford and Verdugo can give you no less than 80% of Hoch’s production for 1/10 the cost. We can use that savings to combine with some other cash to get actual mid to upper rotation starters.
Getz should also be non-tendered. Getz, while he has shown that he can play well enough to be a starting 2B in the MLB, can’t stay healthy. The Royals can’t afford to pay a light hitting, solid fielding 2B $1.2M. Not when they have Giavotella, Abreu, Falu, Navarro and Colon all available for less than half what Getz will make and any combination of those guys can probably give you the same level of production of Getz, and you have built in backups if anyone slumps or gets injured. Getz’s injuries (not his play) have pushed him out of the Royals plans IMO.
It should not even be considered to move Holland, Collins or Herrera from the pen to the rotation. Holland hasn’t started since high school. Collins was not even a starter IN high school. Herrera was unable to stay healthy as a starter in the low minors. Those guys are all very good pitchers, but they are unlikely to be even league average starters. Might as well keep those guys in the pen (and keep the pen relatively cheap) while spending the savings on improving the rotation.
Trades should be explored this offseason and one of the criteria should be trying to unload Jeff Francoeur in any deal, even if that limits the return. The Royals have plenty of OF that can replace his (limited) production, including Lough, Dyson (if Cain moves to RF) and of course Wil Myers. Unloading Francoeur and some or most of his salary would free up more cash for, yep, starting pitching.
The 40 man roster spots will be at a premium this year. The Royals will likely have to expose some guys, which is all the more reason to non tender guys like Getz and Hochevar that don’t fit into their plans, and explore trades with some of their upper minors guys that are blocked (Clint and Derrick Robinson, maybe Lough, possibly either Abreu, Falu or Navarro, even someone in that long man, 5th starter role like Verdugo, Adcock, Teaford, etc.) The Royals have lots of really interesting guys that may be close enough to the majors for another team to carry on their roster all year, but not nearly enough spots for them all unless they make some moves.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 1 week agoInteresting view on Getz and I could agree, just surprised at Getz getting any love at all. Unfortunately, it all gets down to what Gio can do in the next few weeks. I expect one of Gio or Getz to be traded, as both are only 2nd basemen and Abreu, Falu, and Colon all can play at least two positions.
Non-tendering Getz and Hoch is a waste of assets and I’ve covered various scenarios here and elsewhere, so won’t reprise. Either would be tradeable packaged with some of the minors you mention. Change of scenery trades happen, we’ve gotten two good starters that way and Luke isn’t the only talented underachiever out there, so I expect that to be explored after the Royals have a better idea of rehab times and ability to sign FAs.
I find it interesting that some assume that money is the only requirement for FAs, probably assuming that overpaying market by millions would be enough to get a pitcher to leave the NL and come to a rebuilding team in the middle of nowhere. I don’t see overpaying or KC suddenly becoming an attractive destination this winter.
Don Aubry
8 months, 1 week agoIn find it puzzling to see Hoch mentioned as a closer. One of the knocks on him has been that he seems to implode when he gets in trouble. That sort of history seems really inconsistent with what one traditionally expects in a closer.
Jay Hall
8 months, 1 week agoJim,
I appreciate where you are coming from arguing that non tendering Getz and Hochevar is a waste of assets, and that is true if their value is tied to their trade value. However, it is not.
The assets the Royals gain by non tendering both Hochevar and Getz are not just the $$$ they free up (although that is a bonus). However, the Royals also gain roster space.
This winter the Royals have a lot of choices to make about who to protect on that 40 man roster. Here’s a quick list of guys the Royals will have to make decisions on this season, or risk losing in the Rule V draft: Mike Montgomery, Tim Melville, Tyler Sample, JC Sulbaran, Donnie Joseph (both acquired in the Broxton deal), plus the injured guys (Duffy, Paulino, Wood, Soria (if retained)). And that’s just the pitchers. There are also quite a few position players that are Rule V eligible.
Simply put, the Royals need the roster space, which makes non-tendering those guys to free up their roster spot an asset (after all, Hochevar takes up the same amount of roster space as Holland, but with a fraction of the value).
Finally, everybody in baseball is basically in agreement that the Royals are a couple of good pitchers away from being in contention. The players know that. If the Royals make some solid offers they can be a FA option. After all, the Nationals lured Edwin Jackson because they appeared to be on the brink. They had Harper and Strasburg and Zimmerman, traded for Gonzalez and boom, that made them attractive. The Royals have two established hitters in Butler and Gordon. Two young potential stars in Hosmer and Moustakas. But they also have two very good young players who are signed through the rest of the decade in Escobar and Perez. If you’re a pitcher and you know Escobar will be behind you at short and you’re throwing to Perez every time you go to the hill, that’s a nice thing to know. Oh, and the Royals have a very strong bullpen, too.
So the Royals need to have their most finite resource (roster space) ready to be upgraded. They can do that by packaging guys (relievers, Francoeur, Chen if there are takers, high minors players, semi prospects) or just non tendering guys whose production can be replaced like Getz and Hochevar. Finding trade partners for all of these average or below average players is unlikely, so the Royals are going to have to part with some of them knowing the return is an open roster spot for a FA like Jackson or Anibal Sanchez or someone along those lines.