Games » Minnesota Twins
Sep11How to handle a blowout
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
In the top of the eighth inning with the Royals already leading 7-0, Alcides Escobar stood on third base. Alcides had just tripled to left field. That’s how bad things went for the Minnesota Twins. It’s hard to triple to left field. Third base is right there. That is why most triples are hit to right field or right-center field, where it is a much more difficult throw for an outfielder.
Headed for almost certain defeat and with the fans leaving in droves, Alex Burnett, who was pitching for the tied-for-last-place Twins, threw a wild pitch. Escobar scored, and the Royals led 8-0.
So what is the correct protocol when one team is beating the other badly? Running up the score is frowned upon, but what that means can be vague. How many runs are enough? The manager in one dugout may be thinking of a different number than the manager in the other dugout. And what manager wants to ease up on an opponent only to have them stage a late-inning rally? If that happens, your kindness can look like foolishness.
The best approach to a blowout I ever heard came from Russ Morman, a former Royal. You don’t change the way you play. You change the tactics. If your team has a big lead, you don’t bunt, steal or hit and run, but you continue to play hard. You still go first to third and second to home, you still break up double plays whenever possible, and you certainly score from third on a wild pitch. It wasn’t Escobar’s fault that Burnett threw a wild pitch. It wasn’t the Royals’ fault that they eventually scored nine runs.
You take your win and enjoy your good fortune, but you don’t gloat or show up your opponent. Tomorrow it may be their turn to score nine.
Game notes
• Minnesota’s Ben Revere singled to lead off the first inning. Jamey Carroll followed with a single to left field, and Alex Gordon ran a good route to the ball. Gordon’s hustle kept Revere from even thinking about going first to third, and that set up an attempted double steal later in the inning. Salvador Perez went after Carroll, the trailing runner, and threw him out.
• Going after the trailing runner in a double steal is often a smart move. The runner on first has to make sure that the runner on second is really going, and that can make the trailing runner a step late.
• With multiple runners on base, that catcher will step in front of the plate and signal to the infielders where the ball will be going if the runners take off.
• In the top of the second with a run already in, Jeff Francoeur on second and Eric Hosmer on first, Lorenzo Cain hit a routine fly ball to left. The fly ball was routine, but the sky wasn’t. At that time of night, the sky is more gray than black, and a high fly ball can get lost in the twilight.
Minnesota left fielder Josh Willingham signaled that he had lost the ball (arms out to the side), but he didn’t get much help from his shortstop, Pedro Florimon. Infielders are supposed to point at fly balls headed to the outfield so an outfielder who loses the ball can check the infielder in front of him and figure out where he should be looking. It appeared that Florimon never made a signal.
• The ball dropped behind Willingham. Francoeur and Hosmer scored, and Cain pulled into third with a triple. Give credit to all the base-runners for hustling and running the ball out. You run out a hundred fly balls in case one drops.
• A Johnny Giavotella-Alcides Escobar double play ended the third inning. The pitch before the double play was in the dirt, and Perez blocked it, keeping the double play in order. No blocked pitch, no inning-ending double play.
• Jeff Francoeur led off the fourth inning and worked the count to 3-0. It’s possible Frenchy could have gotten a 3-0 green light in that situation, but that wouldn’t seem likely. A walk is a good start to an inning. Green lights on a 3-0 count are more often used with two out and no one on with a power hitter at the plate who can drive the ball and possibly homer or at least double. The other time you might see a 3-0 green light is with a hot hitter and runners in scoring position.
• Leading off the eighth inning, Eric Hosmer doubled, and Johnny Giavotella did a nice job hitting behind the runner to move Hosmer to third. The ball got through the infield, and Hosmer scored. Look for the Royals to take advantage of Twins center fielder Ben Revere’s throwing arm whenever they can in the next two games.
• Hosmer had three hits, including an opposite-field home run, and hit the ball hard all five times he came to the plate. If I’ve done the math right, Hosmer has hit .302 over the last month of baseball.
• Later in the eighth, Cain got hit in the head by an 83-mph slider. If it had been intentional, the pitch would have been a fastball. Pitchers don’t intentionally hit batters with breaking pitches.
• This is the scary part of hitting. You’re standing at the plate looking for any clue that will let you know what pitch is on its way. Arm angle. Release. Spin. Anything that tells you what will happen in the next split second.
The seams on a slider form a red dot as it hurtles toward you. So you pick up the “slider” message, try to hang in so you’ve got a chance when the pitch breaks over the plate and — too late — you realize the pitch isn’t going to break. That was when Cain ducked.
• As manager Ned Yost said after the game, the pitches that glance off don’t scare you as much as the ones that ricochet back toward the mound. The pitches that continue to the backstop are glancing blows. The pitches that bounce back toward the infield hit the batter square.
Perez pickoffs
In the grand scheme of things, four pickoffs in 55 games may see inconsequential, but for two things. Getting an out without throwing a pitch to a guy holding a bat is a psychological lift for everybody, especially the pitcher.
The other factor is what it does to the other team’s base-running. In Sunday’s Royals-White Sox game, Chicago’s Alexei Ramirez tried to go first to third in the seventh inning and was thrown out by Jeff Francoeur. Give an unseen assist to Salvador Perez. If Ramirez shortened his lead at first because Perez likes to pickoff runners (and if Ramirez didn’t, he should have), that would have meant Ramirez was a step slower getting to third base. And that helped Jeff Francoeur.
Salvy’s ability to throw behind runners shortens their leads and makes them a step behind where they would usually be when going first to third, second to home or getting down to second base to break up a double play.
The downside of a catcher who likes to pick off runners would be balls that are thrown away. But the upside — besides the runners that the catcher throws out — are the runners he allows his teammates to throw out.
Smith
Perez
Escobar
Joel Kallem
9 months, 1 week agoAwesome performance tonight all around. Hos looks like he may be turning the corner, Gio looked smooth in the field and at bat, Cain shined as the leadoff man, and Salvy was the man throwing out two more runners. Smith pitched like a pro, especially when he got into jams, and has to be in the mix for next year as a number 4 or 5 until our injured arms are ready to go. Team showed awesome potential for 2013 both in the field and at bat.
Brian Rose
9 months, 1 week agoEveryone up in arms about royals public support of hocheaver. Usually in sports when your boss supports you publicly it means the opposite… Nice to see wil smith pitching well. Why is it every year royals seem to play pretty good except for one bad stretch, 0-12 to start season, 1-7against Seattle. I guess just the sign of a bad team. Hope they get it together next year. If nothing else would like to keep some players for a while, more fun to follow that way
Jeff Frost
9 months, 1 week agoFinish strong KC! Nice win last night. I truly believe Salvy would have been worth 10 more wins this year. You take a 64-77 and turn it around to 74-67 and we are only 2 out! Resign Guthrie now! Hos will have better stats than Moose by the end of the year. Best defense and bullpen in the AL. Need to sign one #2ish pitcher in the offseason, along with Guthrie to contend next year. Didn’t buy the kool aide the way we finished last year, but like our look for next year if DM takes care of business.
Daniel Wesley
9 months, 1 week agoI remember a few years ago when the Rangers put up 30 (thirty!) runs against the Orioles. I wonder how it must feel to try to continue to take professional at-bats and not surrender outs when you’re playing in that kind of a blow out.
Daniel Wesley
9 months, 1 week agoJeff, while I do believe Salvador would have helped tremendously, 10 extra wins from one player is Mike Trout territory… I don’t think he’s quite that good.
Joel Kallem
9 months, 1 week agoJeff, I would like to see the Royals resign Guthrie too, but we need to recognize that it is not just up to them. Guthrie may want to test the market before signing with anyone and some of the big money teams may offer a contract that we cannot (or should not) match. If we cannot resign Guthrie, we should be concentrating on finding another pitcher like him who has the potential to blossom with the right instruction and support.
Daniel Wesley
9 months, 1 week agoJoel, Guthrie recently approached the Royals about signing a deal, but Dayton told him to wait.
Josh Cooper
9 months, 1 week agoSurprised you are still alive after the knuckleheads came after you on the KCStar page. I swear, some fans are always going to be homers that feel any criticism shows you aren’t a true fan. True fans don’t question management. You can only do so after said GM or manager has left the team. Then feel free. I bet the same people defending Moore and bashing Baird were defending Baird when he was around.
Anyways, Perez is a great talent. No doubt about it. I can’t wait to see where he is in a few years time. He’s not a ten-win player, but he could be the best catcher in the majors within a couple of years. Hope he can stay healthy.
Daniel Wesley
9 months, 1 week agoJosh, I may be wrong sometimes (or a lot of the time!) but I’m confident in my fandom and my opinions. It will take more than an anonymous internet mob to rattle me. :)
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoDaniel, what site? Was that on Sam’s piece? Agree with you on the screen name bunch, I catch my share of flack from those, also.
As for Perez in general, not sure WAR is subtle enough to value a catcher. It does seem that the Royals are a much better team when Perez is on the field.
Josh, some fans will always be Homers, some will always be Negative Nancys, and most will be fairly reasonable about things. That distribution applies to most things in life, so must be human nature.
Daniel Wesley
9 months, 1 week agoJim, I made a brief comment on Dutton’s post game story and got ganged up on. It wasn’t a big deal but I spent more time than I should have responding to all of them.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoDaniel, missed that, sorry, I’ve dealt with several of them from both sides over there.
How would you quantify Sal Perez’ value? Given this some thought and Lee puts quite a bit of effort into mentioning the little things like balls in the dirt and the deterrent value of pick offs and caught-stealing on an opponents’ willingness to be aggressive on base. Then there is the handling of a staff and the ability to frame pitches with soft, quiet hands. Then there is the more easily quantifiable offensive contributions. Then there’s the chemistry aspect.
Took a look at fangraphs’ catcher leaderboard and, just as a guess, looks like Sal on a full year is a 5 or 6 WAR player, even considering the questionable value of defensive metrics. He sure looks an elite talent to me.
John Wilson
9 months, 1 week agoSalvy sure has impressed me with being able to come up to the majors and handle the pitch calling duties like he has been in the majors for years. I don’t know that he would have been so readily accepted with a veteran staff (senority snobbery you know) but it sure is fun to watch him do his magic!
Daniel Wesley
9 months, 1 week agoI can see Perez being a consistent 5 WAR player with the possibility of a Porter-like 8 WAR season… which would make him so far and ahead better than any other catcher in Royals history.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoI’m wondering if Dutton’s article on Hoch wasn’t a set-up. I read it as not getting too negative on Hoch, but also a way of sending their ace pitcher a message: why are you being so stubborn? Listen to your pitching coach.
Plus, they had to know Smellinger would attack mgmt’s stand and thus be a way of letting Hoch’s agent know that they intend to either lowball or non-tender him.
I can’t see Hoch winning in arbitration, but with all the dollars out there these days, nothing would surprise me.
Daniel Wesley
9 months, 1 week agoThe biggest thing Hochevar has been good at - health - is a huge bargaining chip in arbitration. He will likely win on that point alone.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoGood point, Daniel, expecially with 4 pitchers on his OWN team being lost for the season. Still, from a historical performance perspective . . .
By the way, last night’s game was what a blowout looks like, huh? I’ve been wondering about that all season.
Joel Kallem
9 months, 1 week agoDaniel, where did you see that Guthrie approached the Royals and was turned down? All I have seen is that he said he would be interested in staying in KC, but I don’t think either side actually proposed contract figures.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoJoel, that’s my understanding too, Guthrie told a reporter that he liked it here and was interested in signing, Dayton Moore told a reporter that he was also interested but would start negotiations after the season. I think any sense of impasse is overblown at the moment. But, if I was GMDM, I would at least run a package by him as a starting point. I expect FA numbers to be stupid this year and a pre-emptive strike might be a strategy. Guthrie has good health and a good enough career to justify some effort. Take advantage of good feelings before other teams can negotiate with him.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoDaniel, ran up Perez’ pWAZ, based on his game average this year and 150 games, and it came in at 8.05. Polk wins are above zero, not above replacement, so assuming replacement is 2 WAR, Sal Perez projects at about 6 at current production. Projecting his fWAR over 150 games gives a 5.59. I think Polk values defense more accurately than some other systems.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoNo doubt about it, I need to learn how to speak Seamhead. I think Cantonese might be easier, though.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoTerry -
Don’t sweat it. Jim’s just teasing us. There’s no such thing as pWAZ or any equivalence between Judge’s system and the WAR systems a lot of us use as shorthand for player value.
They talked some about WAR on the broadcast tonight, but it wasn’t super informative. It’s not the easiest place to start in advanced baseball metrics, but it’s the place you’ll probably end up after you teach yourself Seamhead.
Here are a couple decent primers: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/ http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/bigleaguestew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-WAR?urn=mlb,211211
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoB Dub - Thx for the encouragement, but I think I’ll still start with something easy, like Cantonese, and work my way up from there.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoTerry -
Alright, then “j?k néih hóuwahn”
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoB Dub - quit teasin’.
You know it means, “I want you for your mind.”
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoWow, that was quick.
Well, with Cantonese out of the way, you should have Sabremetrics mastered by the week’s end.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoU Crack me up!
Sabremetrics hurts me brain. Never was good at complicated math. I could do numbers, but start throwing algebra in there, I was a lost soul.
Methinx Hoch should get down on both knees and thank his teammates und his mgr for handing him an undeserved win.
As a young lad, baseball attracted me b/c I was pretty good with adding, subtracting, multiplying und dividing. But interpreting the raw data always made me anxious.
I envy you sabremetrics dudes who can make the numbers come alive.
Me, I’m most appreciative of the art and sublety of the game.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week ago“Don’t sweat it. Jim’s just teasing us. There’s no such thing as pWAZ”
Of course there is, I delivered the concept and defined it and used it, based on Lee’s first hand information. I don’t need permissions to pursue ideas. I think you’re just jealous because a 35 year old system capable of being figured on a poster on a dugout wall is coherent and delivers good information. I think it’s defensive ratings better than the competition. Of course, you may think Gordon 2.5 wins better defensively than Escobar. It’s a free country.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoI think a lot of kids would do a lot better in math if they applied it to baseball statistics.
I did terribly in probability and statistics and I’d never bothered much with computer programming until I wanted to start trying to understand why other teams were succeeding while the Royals kept failing. Once I had that motivation, I could teach myself.
I don’t understand all the ins and outs, and I don’t agree with all of the advanced stats (the defensive metrics especially are too unreliable for my tastes), but I’ve found that they let me enjoy the game far more because the advanced stats help me understand the game. Before I had a way to measure whether “aggressiveness” helps or hurts, I just cursed bad outcomes and cheered good outcomes, but now I know how to analyze the whole strategy and see how the Royals have been worse off this year than if their runners had never attempted a single stolen base.
To each his own though. I enjoy your comments here quite a bit.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoJim F -
I calculated the pWAZ for Yuni and found that it had him at 6.5 wins above zero over 150 games. According to your zero-to-replacement conversion, that means he was on a 4.5 WAR pace — an All-Star level of performance.
That’s when I realized you were just joking.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoJim F -
Also, you misunderstand defensive metrics. They don’t measure the difference between Gordon and Escobar. They measure the difference between Gordon and the average LF and Escobar and the average SS. Gordon is getting measured against guys like Ryan Doumit, and that boosts his numbers. Escobar isn’t getting the same benefit.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoNow you math boyz - can’t we all just get along?
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoB dub - wondering how you quantify passion which, by all accounts, is how scouts, teammates, GMs, etc all factor into how they measure the ultimate effect an absolute stud like Salvy factors into their evaluations of a player, especially a catcher.
I mean, so far, this (Venezuelan?) gentleman seems to be a blend of Johnny Bench and Gary Carter and Yogi Berra.
Please, GMDM, do NOT even consider trading the core of this franchise; Salvy, Esky, Mous, Hos, Gordo. Trade Billy b/4 anybody else is traded. Is Billy our best bat? Yes. Is he a liability on the bases and with a glove? Also, yes.
Billy is a bat, nothing else, except for his and his wife’s impact on the community, which the franchise should also consider. Still . . .
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoTerry -
I’d rather work in an office with good guys who love their work than misanthropes who are lazy. I know it makes me happier, and I think it probably makes me more productive.
While my employer probably wants me to be happy and probably factors that into his decisions, he’s cares most about my productivity.
In baseball is that productivity is much more easily measured than in any field I’ve ever worked in. We know fairly precisely how well the players hit and run and we have at least a decent idea of their fielding. This has to be the most important factor for the Royals.
Sal is great because he’s not only passionate, he’s a great producer. In a world without Mike Trout, Perez would be the young player national writers were hyping as a future MVP. If he were just as passionate but airmailing pickoff throws and hitting .220, I’d feel differently about him than I do (but I’m thrilled for his success, both for my sake as a fan, and for his and his family’s sake).
Some people think you should only consider productivity. They point to Billy Martin’s Yankees teams of the 1970s, which were filled with infighting but won pennant after pennant or Jeff Kent, who is a miserable human being but was a huge producer on lots of great teams. I don’t go that far. I think it’s OK to sacrifice a little bit of individual productivity if you think a guy, by his character or personality will raise the productivity of those around him even more. However, I think the Royals go so far overboard with this (e.g. Chen and Francoeur) that Moore would be better sticking to pure measures of productivity and ignoring personality.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoTerry -
Re: Butler
One of the interesting challenges of putting together WAR, a stat that’s supposed to encompass a player’s entire value is how much to weigh hitting versus fielding versus baserunning (versus pitching). There have been a lot of interesting studies, but the conclusion is that, for position players, hitting is far more important than any of those other factors. Billy isn’t very good at baserunning or defense, but he might still be the most productive player on the team because he’s so good at hitting.
Having said that, Sal is going to need some days at DH, and Hos is hopefully going to be playing every day, so we’ve got a bit of a logjam in the lineup. So I could be OK with trading Billy, but the Royals need to realize what a valuable player he is and make sure that they get fair value (i.e. somebody who take over his role as one of the most valuable players on the team) in return.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoBrendan, what daily average did you have? I can’t find Yuni. Just on memory this year, he would be more like a 1 WAR top.
“They measure the difference between Gordon and the average LF and Escobar and the average SS.”
Then they shouldn’t be used to measure WAR where, on the leader boards, SSs and LFs are ranked on WAR totals. Gordon’s defense boosts him well above Escobar, as does Moose’s last I looked at the team totals. Without the fld, Gordon and Escobar have about the same fWAR. From what you say, fld should be ignored for anything other than comparing Gordon to Doumit while pWAZ sees absolute contribution defensively to the game.
Terry, I would trade three years of a friendly contract of Gordon for a big pile of A+ and AA talent. The recent deadline trades gave an idea of what two months of Zack is worth, so three years of an above average LF should return six or eight A and AA players from a team like the Reds. It would have to be a great return, but trading a Gordon is the type of move that Tampa or Oakland would do, an established veteran for the next wave.
I wouldn’t trade Billy because he is simply much more valuable to us than to another team. With his defense and speed he would return half of what Gordon would and would be harder to replace for us. To replace Gordon we have Myers and Dyson, we don’t have a comparable DH in the wings. A meaningful trade will hurt, so do we trade an expensive guy who is old in “Process” years or do we trade seven years of Wil Myers? An outfield of Cain, Dyson, and Myers is something I could live with if we could pick up some young prospect arms. Our AA and AAA are weaker on arms than I would like.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoB Dub - absolutely agree re: Billy’s necessity to the CURRENT team. My Point is that this team is just now beginning to flower as an offensive unit, and I’m afraid that Billy clogging up the bases, plus his defensive limitations, might make him a more attractive trade mark than any other current Royal. Therefore, since SP is the main requirement, and trade PERHAPS the only option to satisfy the requirement, why not trade the LEAST effective OVERALL part of your team for a potentially satisfying number 2 SP?
Personally, I do NOT want to see this happen, but this might be the only viable option for a team on the build. I’d really hate to break up a team that is just now coming into it’s own offensively, after showing all the potential in the world, defensively. Sometimes, you have to bleed before you can blossom.
PLEASE, GMDM, do NOT even consider trading Salvy, or Esky, or your corner infielders, Hos or Mous. I would suggest it would be stupid to trade Gordon after all the investment that the franchise made in him, and how he has ultimately paid off. Why toss a pearl after you have seen that is has the proper sheen?
Dangle Cain, Frenchie, Dyson, Gia,even Myers, b/4 U break up the core of a team that is just now hitting it’s stride, offensively and defensively. And a core that seems to pull for each other and get along.
Speaking of Gia, he seems to be playing more comfortably within his own skin. He no longer seems to feel pressured to be the next Rogers Honrnsby, let alone the next Frank White. Gia being Gia. We may yet learn how to live with that.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week ago4.333 pts per game, 57 games royals.kansascity.com/players/yuniesky-betancourt/
Gordon and Escobar play different positions. They get different position adjustments. Escobar gets 6.3 runs (about 0.7 wins) added and Gordon gets 6.4 runs subtracted. The subject of the exact amount of positional adjustments, especially when comparing disimilar positions like SS and LF, is in some dispute.
If you want to take out fielding, that’s fine, but you need to take out the positional adjustment too. That leaves Gordon about 1.5 wins better than Escobar.
I don’t like single-season UZR as the fielding component of WAR so I replace the fielding number with the ZIPS projection for the rest of the season (which ought to be an approximation of true talent), scaled up to 150 games. That puts Gordon at +6.3 and Escobar at -2.5. Doing that leaves Gordon about 1.0 wins better than Escobar.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoHow do you factor in that Eksy might have booted that last grounder because his mind was focused on the possibility that that cute waitress he met last night might have a husband she hadn’t told him about? Or maybe she’s more into girls? Or maybe she really just LOOKS like a girl?
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoTerry -
I think Butler and Gordon are the only proven hitters on the team. I like Hos and Mous, and I’m hopeful, but they’re both really struggling with adjustments this year. Frankly, Cain has looked better at the plate than either of them.
Despite Billy’s slow feet, he’s been more productive (by my way of calculating WAR) than everyone but Gordon and Escobar this year. If we’ve got men on base, there’s nobody I want at the plate more than Big Bill.
Frankly, as I said the other day, I’d rather the Royals buy pitching than trade for it. Glass has been booking huge profits the last couple years with low payroll (and now, under the new CBA, capped draft and intl spending). If he’s serious about winning, he ought to go spend it. However, I, like you, rather doubt that will happen.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 1 week agoTerry -
I don’t know what’s been distracting Escobar this season, but he doesn’t need any more girl trouble. There’s actually a pretty sad story about Alcides and the mother of his child that doesn’t make him seem very nice.
If you want to read it, search Google for: Alcides Escobar child