Games » Chicago White Sox
Sep9The 10th inning
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
The score was 0-0 after nine innings. The Royals had escaped a jam in the bottom of the ninth and went into extra innings with the score still tied. Alcides Escobar led off the 10th with a single. White Sox manager Robin Ventura brought in left-hander Donnie Veal and Donnie struck out Alex Gordon. (Veal’s full name is Donald T. Veal II, and I can see why he doesn’t use it. Would you be intimidated if an investment banker came in to pitch with the game on the line?)
Ventura then went to right-hander Brett Myers to face Billy Butler. Bingo! Myers has a lifetime ERA of 9.00 against the Royals, and it is over 20.00 in 2012. (And fans get mad at Ned Yost.) Maybe Ventura thought this can’t possibly continue, but if he did, he was wrong.
Even though Alcides Escobar was thrown out trying to steal (the one good throw A.J. Pierzynski made all day), Myers walked Butler to keep the inning alive. Jarrod Dyson came out to pinch-run for Billy and went first to third on a Salvador Perez single. Then Myers stayed in against Mike Moustakas. In the past, Moose had hit Myers well (a small sample size), and this at-bat was no exception. Moose singled to drive in the first run of the game, and then Myers gave up another single to Jeff Francoeur, who drove in the second, and ultimately winning, run of the game.
Ventura then brought in Leyson Septimo, another left-handed reliever, to face Eric Hosmer. But if Ventura had a lefty available in the pen, why not have him face Moustakas with the game on the line? (Maybe there’s a good answer, but I don’t know what it is.)
Anyway, Greg Holland made it more interesting than it had to be in the bottom of the 10th, issuing two walks and allowing one of them to score before nailing down his 13th save. But nevertheless, the Royals took the game and the series 2-1.
Game notes
• Alejandro De Aza led off the game with a double, and the White Sox tried to use Ray Olmedo to bunt the runner over to third (assuming it was Robin Ventura’s idea). Olmedo failed to get the runner to third, but a passed ball by Salvador Perez did the job.
• With the runner on third and one down, Ned Yost brought the Royals’ infield in. The Chicago bunt and the Kansas City infield positioning meant both managers thought that one run was going to be significant. They were both right. The game was 0-0 after nine innings.
• With De Aza on third base and one out, Dewayne Wise hit a fly ball to Alex Gordon in left. Alex was moving laterally — which meant no momentum on the throw — and the fly ball was the second out of the inning. De Aza tagged up and tried to score, and Gordon threw him out at the plate for another outfield assist.
• If you’re wondering whether De Aza’s tagging up was a good decision, think risk and reward. What’s the risk, and what’s the reward? The risk was making the third out at the plate. The reward was scoring the go-ahead run. If a sacrifice fly is the second out of the inning, most teams want their base-runner on third to tag and try to score, if at all possible.
• Gordon made a strong throw despite having no forward momentum. And don’t forget the Salvador Perez catch, block of the plate and tag. For every one of those great throws from the outfield, there often is a great catch and tag at the other end.
• In the bottom of the second with Paul Konerko on first, A.J. Pierzynski singled. The White Sox should have had runners at first and third and one down, but A.J. got caught between bases and was thrown out by Jeff Francoeur (with a little help from Alcides Escobar and Eric Hosmer). Pierzynski’s base-running may have cost Chicago a run when Dayan Viciedo made the third out of the inning on a ball hit to Escobar. If there had only been one down, Konerko might have scored.
• The bad news after the top of the fourth inning? Hector Santiago had struck out eight Royals. The good news? It took him 88 pitches to do it. Striking hitters out is good, but it generally takes a lot of pitches (and the three walks Santiago issued didn’t help his pitch count). Hector was gone before getting a single out in the fifth.
• The Royals stole five bases in this game. Pierzynski has thrown out a little more than 10 percent of the runners who have tried to steal against him. That kind of number will make the opposition think about thievery.
• Jeremy Guthrie has now thrown 23.2 innings in three starts against the White Sox without giving up an earned run. Jeremy put up another quality start Sunday and once again pitched great. Of course, every time he does this, the cost of keeping him gets higher.
• In the seventh inning, Paul Konerko singled with one out. Alexei Ramirez came in to pinch-run. Alex Rios made the second out on a fly ball, and then Pierzinski singled. Alexei ran through the third-base coach’s stop sign to make the third out at third base when Jeff Francoeur threw him out.
• The White Sox are in first place. Two guys who aren’t exactly new to the league made bad base-running decisions. The lesson here is that the game is hard. People make mistakes, and it’s not just the people on your favorite team.
Players and coaches are making split-second decisions. If they’re right, it’s heads-up, aggressive baseball. If they’re wrong, they’re boneheads. That doesn’t necessarily make the Pierzynski or Ramirez base-running decisions OK. When the Royals screw up, players and coaches will go over the mistake and “clean it up.” But acknowledging that the game is hard and nobody plays it perfectly makes for a more reasonable fan.
The Kmart closer
There is a guy who cuts some of the players’ hair (you think Hosmer’s look happens by accident?), and I asked how much the ballplayers dropped on haircuts. Greg Holland said he didn’t know. He gets his done at Supercuts. Either that, or he just takes some clippers and runs them over his head a couple times each summer.
I said, “I’m digging you, Hollie. It’s just like you close. You’ve got no style at all.” Greg started laughing and said his wife had told him that for years. But think about it: The guy is 12 for 12 (after Sunday’s game, 13 for 13) since being named the closer, yet he has no closer music (he tells the Royals staff to play whatever they want) and no scoreboard graphics. Holland just comes in, throws a 98-mph fastball (Sunday he threw one at 100 mph; I have no idea how), a filthy slider and gets the job done.
I asked how Greg was he would handle it when he finally blew a save. “I’ve blown saves before. You just come back at it the next day.”
Relieving is not like starting. Whatever they do, starters have five days to think about it. Greg said that if a starter does well, it seems like forever until his next start. But if a starter does poorly, it still seems like forever until his next start. Relievers don’t have as long to gloat or mope. The whistle blows, and you get back to work.
Without a fancy haircut.
Gio’s defense
Royals infield coach Eddie Rodriguez recently talked to The Star’s Bob Dutton about Johnny Giavotella’s defense. Here’s what he said:
Infielders shuffle forward as the pitcher delivers the ball to home plate. A couple of shuffle steps forward get the infielder off his heels and on to the balls of his feet. It also brings the head and chest forward and down, which is a better fielding position. Finally, a body in motion tends to stay in motion, and the move forward adds fluidity to the infielder’s movements.
Johnny apparently was making this move too early. He would shuffle then stop as the ball entered the contact zone. Mistiming this move would have Johnny at a dead stop just when he needed to be inching forward.
Here’s the second adjustment: Once the ball was put in play and Johnny started moving forward again, the move to the ball was too hard. Eddie described it as two trains colliding. So Rodriguez slowed Gio down when he comes to the ball. That allows Johnny to pick the hop he wants and allows him to keep his feet positioned correctly.
When you hear about the small adjustments that players make, they can seem ridiculously small. But in a game played at high speed and decided by fractions of inches, small adjustments can make a big difference.
Guthrie
Francoeur
Herrera
Jeff Frost
8 months, 2 weeks agoGreat job Royals!! Dayton- please sign Guthrie to a 4-year $40 million contract now!!!
Now onto Minnesota! Let’s get a team we should be beating!
Go Royals!
Thayne Griffin
8 months, 2 weeks agoI’m drunk on the Guthrie Kool-Aid. Can we send him out against the White Sox every time?
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoGood stuff from Coach Rodriguez, that explains why Giavotella looks a step slow on the ball, starting toward it from essentially a dead stop.
As for Guthrie, he looks hot snot but he’s 33. A couple of weeks ago, before Sam mentioned the same numbers, I suggested 2/18 and an option. Maybe 2/20 or 21 now, but am still a little leery of more than two guaranteed years for a 33 year old power pitcher.
Tim Bruggeman
8 months, 2 weeks agoI got to watch the replay of the Gordon to Perez thrown out at the plate play. Great throw by Gordon, but an even better block of the plate by Perez. He was like a big stone there to stop the runner.
I love catchers.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks ago4/40 is a bit much for Guthrie. Dayton likes his options so I’d guess a 2/22 deal with a 3rd year option/buyout.
Assuming Dayton is able to follow through on his pledge to upgrade the starting pitching, this is what I’d guess our rotation next year will be:
Free Agent
Guthrie
Chen
Odorizzi
Mendoza
Mendoza would be on the shortest leash given his recent success is an anomaly with the rest of his career. I’m also crossing my fingers that Mike Montgomery can figure things out before he ages out of prospect-hood.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoDaniel, a couple of thoughts: Mendoza is not an anomaly based on his time since his reinvention in Omaha mid-way through ‘10, so is about as predictable as any of the rotation; and Mike Montgomery is starting to look like a prospect closer to me.
As for Dayton Moore’s pledge, I expect him to have $20-$30 million to go after FA’s, IF he thinks that makes a championship team and IF he can get the talent that he wants without having to pay too much of a premium in money and years because KC is an unattractive team at the moment. Marcum is possible but has injury issues, McCarthy is questionable given a history of injuries and his recent injury, Anibal might be attractive but will have a lot of interest given his age and NL stats. Edwin Jackson is possible. Zack won’t come back.
Contrary to the CW, I expect Luke back, about $4.5 mil, and I think Will Smith gets a shot. With Duffy and Paulino back sometime during the year and John Lamb close, Dayton Moore may not feel the desperation to tie up money needed for Hosmer and Moustakas for four or five years and might decide to take his chances with the in-house arms and just re-sign Guthrie.
Another possibility is trade, we do have a couple of veterans that might be worth a handful of hot AA arms. Trading one of them wouldn’t surprise me.
Brian Rose
8 months, 2 weeks agofrom what i read and GMDM comments sounds like he is going to stick with in house arms mostly and sign a FA starter. My guess is Hoz and Moose still need another year before they are truely reliable hitters plus Cain, Dyson, and Gio are just now getting to the league. Guthrie seems like an easy and popular choice although his agent is Boras… I know GMDM spends a lot more time than i do evaluating talent and looking at what works best so will trust his choices and cheer for whoever he puts on the field, mostly…
Thayne Griffin
8 months, 2 weeks agoJust read Dutton’s article on Hochevar. Sounds like he REFUSES to buy into what the pitching coaches/yost tell him. Not a good quality. Everyone else is buying in and pitching better than they have. Luke hasn’t bought in and hasn’t gotten better. If he doesn’t buy in, we need to cut him loose.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoThayne, I think Luke’s view is that the coaches have been tinkering with him constantly ever since they took him off long-toss after he was drafted. I don’t sense refusal so much as just a desire to get a program and consistently stick with it.
I do agree with Dave Eiland on saving the cutter for special occasions, about 5% of the time as a punch-out pitch, not often enough to screw with delivery, but often enough that a hitter will have it on his mind.
I also agree that Luke has a tendency to overthrow when in trouble. Lee’s friend Tim Bogar mentioned that to him a year or two back, when Luke gets in trouble he tries to throw fastballs past major league hitters. An overthrown FB is also known as “batting practice”, the pitch flattening and straightening out.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoLuke Hochevar is Kyle Davies 2.0. The Royals need to learn when to cut their losses.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoSeriously, Luke is completing his 5th full season and is turning 29… he hasn’t yet learned to not overthrow when in trouble? He hasn’t yet learned what pitches he should throw and how often he should throw them?
How do the Royals expect their fans to take them seriously when even the casual fans realize Luke is not a good pitcher? He’s not going to magically become a good pitcher after struggling for so long.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoDaniel, a lot of KC fans realize that Luke is simultaneously the best and the worst of Royals’ starters, one day he’s Saberhagen, the next he’s Sean O’Sullivan. Folks who only look at aggregate and average stats miss what the FO sees. I prefer to track Game Score on Martin’s site, gives a much better feel for the ballplayer.
“Luke Hochevar is Kyle Davies 2.0”
No, but that is the current CW on the subject. Luke is worth the money this year and will be worth the $4.5-$5 mil he gets next year and his salary shouldn’t impact who the Royals are able to sign, if anyone.
“he hasn’t yet learned to not overthrow when in trouble?”
A common thread among athletes, both amateur and pro. Easy to know something, much harder to do it. George Brett spent a couple of decades pulling outside breaking balls on the ground to the 2nd baseman.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim, it doesn’t matter how you slice it, when you’re 29 years old - sporting a career 5.30 ERA after 750 innings - you are what you are. It doesn’t matter if he’s Saberhagen once every 4 starts if he’s Mark Redman for the next 3 starts. I don’t care if Luke sports an 80 GS every 4th start if he puts the Royals in an unwinnable situation in his next 3 starts. He’s not consistent. He has never been consistent. I hate to be cliche, but insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
“… his salary shouldn’t impact who the Royals are able to sign, if anyone.”
So, do you think Glass and Moore are going to reneg on their promise to improve the starting rotation? Do you think this preliminary “Vote of Confidence” in Hochever is because ownership refuses to spend money even though MLB is receiving record revenues? That wouldn’t shock me.
“Easy to know something, much harder to do it.”
… and Luke has demonstrated throughout his entire career that he can’t do it. Why am I expected to believe that he can magically change that in his upcoming 6th season?
“Folks who only look at aggregate and average stats miss what the FO sees.”
If the Royals can’t see the Forest for the Trees, then there’s no question why they’re barely going to crack 70 wins in Dayton Moore’s 6th full season as GM. You can’t just casually toss out the aggregate because you don’t like it. It tells quite a story.
Forgive my frustration, but I find this maddening. The Royals have a plethora of options - especially if Glass could ever be convinced to invest real money in the ML payroll - and Luke should be so far down at the bottom of that list that it would take an Act of God to ever have to consider him.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoI understand your points, they’ve been covered at length elsewhere, but I’ll stick with my opinion that aggregate stats are worthless for a player with such volatile performance as Hochevar. When the team reaches the point where they have five starters better than Hoch, then he’ll be traded or become a closer. Until then he’ll stay simply because he occasionally dominates.
“especially if Glass could ever be convinced to invest real money in the ML payroll”
Who would you sign and how much would you pay? $30 million looks to get two #2 starters this winter. Guthrie is getting more expensive by the day and two my favorites, Marcum and McCarthy have some injury issues.
The meme is that David Glass is cheap but the reality I see is that he isn’t going to sign another Jose Guillen or Gil Meche just to be able to say he tried. If the team can get an impact pitcher or 2nd baseman and if management thinks that gets them the division title, I think he goes for it. If all he can get is a 2nd or 3rd tier starter for 5/75, I don’t think he’ll pull the trigger.
“You can’t just casually toss out the aggregate because you don’t like it”
Not a matter of liking the stats, they are just worthless to the extent that Luke doesn’t go out every game and pitch five innings and give up three runs. When he’s good he’s dominant and can match up with the other team’s ace. When he’s bad he can give up eight runs in two innings, which blows up stats but isn’t really any worse than giving up four runs in six innings when backed by an offense that has been scoring four runs per game most of the year.
My prediction: Hochevar gets tendered, gets a small raise, and tries again next year, but on a shorter leash with Duffy, Paulino, and Lamb working their ways back from injury. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him tried as a closer at some point in the first half of the season if he isn’t producing more consistently as a starter. When Paulino and Duffy get healthy, assuming Luis and JaKKKe produce and Guthrie is signed, Luke will be traded in a “change of scenery” deal like when we got Guthrie. Luke has stuff and some GM will be willing to take a chance on him. Luke may be tendered and traded this winter, packaged with Gio and another minor leaguer for some A and AA arms. I saw that he was discussed with Baltimore along with Broxton for Arrieta(sp?).
“Why am I expected to believe that he can magically change that in his upcoming 6th season?”
Ballplayers change all the time, for better or worse, Gordon, Guthrie, and Mendoza coming to mind this year, the “Worst Outfield Ever” last year, Bruce Chen the year before. Apparently Johnny Giavotella is changing the worst second base glove ever right before our eyes. Aggregate stats take years to see inflection points. PitchF/x and FieldF/x see things much closer to real time, as do eyeballs.
Good points, Daniel, and if Luke isn’t tendered I’m not going to throw a fit and “check out” and start badmouthing Dayton Moore. It could come down to a coin-flip, although whatever happens I expect Luke to be tendered just so he can be traded.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoDon’t get me wrong, I would give my left arm (well, maybe…) to see Luke turn things completely around and lead a Royals team to postseason glory. I just don’t think it will happen… the odds are too far stacked against him. Now that PEDs are (for the most part) being cleaned out of the game, we’re seeing career arcs return to normal which means peak age is right about where Luke is now.
The number of players who have turned things around and peaked after the kind of career Luke has had so far are incredibly few and far between… the Royals are really tossing the (loaded) dice if they think Luke can be one of those players.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoEven if Scott Boras was Jeremy Guthrie’s agent (and he’s not — Guthrie is represented by Brodie Van Wagenen of CAA Sports), he couldn’t get an $22M contract. I’m worried that the Royals are going to offer him two years (maybe they’ve learned their lesson from the Chen and Francoeur contracts, but I worry), but his salary ought to be about what he’s making this year. The kinds of pitchers who get $10M+/year are better than Guthrie.
But regardless of whether the Royals re-sign Guthrie (and if somebody else wants to give him $20M, let them), they need to bring in more pitching.
If you relax the innings requirement on fangraphs to 80IP in order to get 145 starting pitchers, you get the following rankings by FIP: 139.Guthrie 129.Chen 112.Mendoza 111.Hochevar
Where #1-30 are aces, #31-60 are #2s, and so on, the Royals have two #4s and two #5s
I like Hochevar when he’s on, but the Royals can replace him with Smith or Odorizzi for MLB minimum, save $4.5M and use that to sweeten the pot for two #2s. Otherwise, I just can’t see how the Royals are going to contend in 2013.
If Glass really cares about winning, he’ll open his checkbook and write the checks necessary to bring in two outside starters. But before he does that, I hope he takes a hard look at whether that money will be well spent by Moore/Yost. We have the worst record in the league since Yost took over, which was four years into Moore’s tenure. That ought to be a strong sign that at least one of these guys isn’t going to be able to get it done.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoGive us some names, Brendan. Who are these top 60 pitchers available and who do you prefer? I’ve mentioned a few names and given some thoughts. Even mentioned projected prices on Zack, 5/125, but that was before the new ESPN deal that adds money starting in ‘14, which will inflate prices. And that assumes that an NL pitcher wants to move to the AL and destroy his stats and also move to KC out in the middle of nowhere.
“Otherwise, I just can’t see how the Royals are going to contend in 2013.”
The Royals contended this year til the series before the ASB, in spite of the injuries and learning curve for young talent and are still a factor in the Central with their play against the Sox and Tigers. With better health next year contention should be a given.
Josh Cooper
8 months, 2 weeks agoSometimes I think we’ve lost so long that people have given up, and decide to just be positive about everything. They are happy to possibly contend for the first three months, throw out 5.00 ERA pitchers, and when we lose there is always next year.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoIn 4th place, 6 games back, halfway through the season is not my definition of contending. I’m sort of surprised that it’s anyone’s definition of contending.
I don’t see the point in listing pitchers. Obviously, I want the Royals to look at Greinke, A. Sanchez, E. Jackson, Haren (if the Angels don’t pick up the option), and maybe Marcum, McCarthy, and Peavy (if the ChiSox don’t pick up the option). If they get one of them, go for another, but also expand to include Maholm, Blanton, Hudson, and Millwood. If the Royals could get Liriano inexpensively, I think he’d be worth a flyer too.
I assume everyone has a similar list. Anyone who wants the list of potential free agents can see it at: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177
Josh Cooper
8 months, 2 weeks agoAnd who cares about being the team to defeat the Tigers and let the White Sox into the playoffs? Or vice-versa? I could care less which team makes the playoffs if it isn’t the Royals.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoJosh, good enough points, but I like watching the growth and development of people and organizations, probably more interested in management mechanics than wins and losses, so that does give me a different perspective on things.
“And who cares about being the team to defeat the Tigers and let the White Sox into the playoffs?”
I do, gives us a good idea of what the team, even half-healthy, can do against the two teams they have to beat next year. Series against playoff contenders fighting for their metaphorical lives tells me much more about the team now and in the future than large sample size aggregates.
“I don’t see the point in listing pitchers.”
And I do. If we are knowledgeable enough to judge Dayton Moore and Ned Yost and David Glass, we should be knowledgeable enough to make suggestions and predictions.
Of the ones you listed and in light of the ESPN deal, I would suggest that Zack will cost over $150 mil and won’t want to come back. Had the team stayed healthy and won 85 games we could have re-signed him. As is, ‘13 will look a little much like another rebuild year to him.
Anibal Sanchez is probably the most interesting to me, 29 next year, solid career, but the AL hasn’t been kind to him in Detroit, Ks in the 5s, various fips and ERAs mid-4s, FB staying around 91.5. He’s young enough to want a five year deal and will probably get expensive and probably will prefer to go back to the NL.
Of the rest, Jackson seems about the best, but did a Hochevar imitation Sunday. He’s 29, having a good year, but will probably want big money and years. Marcum and McCarthy have injury issues, so they would have to come cheap with incentives.
“In 4th place, 6 games back, halfway through the season is not my definition of contending.”
Yeah, no team has ever won anything from that point. I considered it contending because they were close and getting three injured players back. They were positioned but they choked on the two defining series around the break.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoEverybody is forgetting that the Yanx need starting depth, too, and they are mos def NOT afraid to spend to get it. Don’t be surprised to see Guthrie sporting pin stripes next year.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoIf I fly round trip every week and my pilot blows out the tires every week slamming the plane too hard down on landing, I don’t have to be able to recommend alternate techniques for executing a flare to judge he’s a bad pilot.
Similarly, I don’t need to have the first idea of what free agents are available after this season to know that Dayton Moore is doing a bad job. He has hired two managers, and each of them had the worst record in the league during their tenure.
Dayton Moore is getting paid $1,000,000 a year to evaluate talent and assemble a roster. He has to be held to a higher standard than “can you do a better job than people analyzing the free agent market in their spare time.”
Actually, if the standard in KC has really dropped so low that being in 4th place, 6 games under .500 halfway through the season is good enough, then we might as well have a GM run the team for free in their spare time.
However, if we actually want to make the playoffs, I think we need to find somebody with a better eye for MLB talent than Dayton Moore, and we need to judge that new guy/gal by their record, and not how their decisions compare to a fan working without a hundredth the resources the Royals front office has.
Even if DM can do a better job than me, what matters is how he does relative to the other 29 MLB GMs, especially the 14 other AL GMs.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoAlso, I don’t have much insight on salaries and contracts, but I’ll be surprised if Greinke becomes the highest-paid pitcher in MLB this offseason. $25M a year strikes me as too high.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks ago“If we are knowledgeable enough to judge Dayton Moore and Ned Yost and David Glass, we should be knowledgeable enough to make suggestions and predictions.”
If the restaurant next to my office serves me bad meat for lunch, I don’t have to be a chef to know something is wrong with it and demand something better.
If Dayton Moore has been unable to crack 75 wins in his 6 full years as GM, I can demand better without having to be a GM myself.
In the end, the point is to win games. Player and organizational development is fun to watch and discuss, but in the end if your team is not winning games then it’s a ultimately a failure.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoYes, we’re all disappointed by how the team turned out this year. Personally, I think the prospects were a little over-hyped due to the All-Star break tie-in and by everybody falling in love with Hosmer.
However, considering we lost 2/9th of the starting lineup for hals a season, and 2/5th of the rotion for half a season, I’d say things could’ve ended up a lot worse.
I think we need to keep our expectations more reasonable for 2013. Two spots in the rotation will need to be filled or seriously re-examined and re-thought. And we really don’t know what to expect from the Frenchman, from Hos, and from Gia.
Plus, we live in a small market where nobody of any value wants to come to play, as Jim F listed above.
Look what’s happened to the Tigers this year. They have 2 of the best hitters in baseball, have had them all year, and have one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. And they may still miss the postseason. Should they all be fired in the front office over there, too?
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks ago“$25M a year strikes me as too high.”
That was the consensus number kicking around before the ESPN deal, which will affect second year and beyond salaries in this winter’s packages. As I recall, there have been a couple of significant extensions this year in the $24 mil neighborhood, likely what Zack’s projection is based on.
” if your team is not winning games then it’s a ultimately a failure.”
My brother is a Cardinals’ fan.
“If Dayton Moore has been unable to crack 75 wins in his 6 full years as GM, I can demand better without having to be a GM myself.”
Is your demand reasonable? I’ve discussed this with Brendan at some length and I contend that Dayton Moore took over a weaker organization than an expansion team, so would take awhile to make a perennial contender given the systemic weakness and payroll constraints. Tampa is a decent analogy and model, as was the Twins for several years. Just a matter of looking for comparable starting points for similar organizations and getting an idea of a reasonable time. That’s why I watch development, the trends.
“especially the 14 other AL GMs.”
Under the circumstances, Tampa’s GM has done a better job, Boston’s worse.
Easy way to judge is dollar cost per win or even average age. Detroit’s GM doesn’t look to even get the second wildcard this year with a $140 mil payroll, so can probably be judged a failure, as will the GMs of the Angels and Jays. Billy Beane is a big success even without OBP. NY’s Cashman doesn’t look very sharp for the money.
Dayton Moore is about in the middle but good enough that a little better health would have won the division. Royals were four or five games over .500 with Getz starting, just as an example of what might have been.
So, Dayton Moore will have up to $30 mil, which two pitchers can he sign and how many wins will they generate over the pitchers they replace? That gets us into marginal cost of wins, a sliding scale from about $500k for the 60th win to about $10m for the 100th.
Good discussion, guys. I’ll drop back later.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoThe idea that an expansion team was stronger than the Allard Baird Royals always rested on the premise that expansion teams got extra draft picks to bolster their talent. But that’s not true. Expansion teams got fewer draft picks, and when they did pick they got bumped to the end of the round.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoAlso, I just want to highlight the absurd cycle of reasoning that’s going on here:
Jim F says Glass shouldn’t spend just to spend. He should only spend if we’re close to making the playoffs (on a side note, I thought this was what “contending” meant, but Jim F uses a different definition). But Moore gets bonus points for working with a small budget. So even though we have the worst record in the league since Yost took over (and worst in MLB since Moore took over), Moore gets judged as “about in the middle.” But of course, that “about in the middle” performance doesn’t get us close enough to the playoffs, so Glass doesn’t have to spend on players. And therefore Moore keeps looking good despite terrible records. And therefore Glass doesn’t have to spend. And so on in to insanity.
Any grading system that results in passing grades for the people in charge while the results are terrible into perpetuity is obviously flawed.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoFinally, I just want to highlight this:
“Dayton Moore is about in the middle but good enough that a little better health would have won the division.”
We’re 13 games out of first place.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoI agree with you Brendan on that point. However, I think Jim and others are right on the limited opportunities through free agency. KC is an unpopular destination. We either over pay or sign flawed players or both out of necessity not choice. Starting pitching is always in demand; the Royals are not going to going to get an established, relatively wart-free, front of the rotation starter through free agency. Develop their own, trades and rolls of the dice on players like Sanchez, Guthrie and Paulino are the only likely avenues for the Royals until they start to win and make KC a (more) attractive destination.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoBrendan- Bobby Valentine’s probably going to be available at the end of this season.
How about we fire Ned and hire that jackass and let him REALLY screw this franchise up.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoI was agreeing with Brendan’s point about the strength of the team. But I also agree with his other points. The fact that KC can’t sign free agents doesn’t excuse Mooore — he’s known that for a long time. To steal from the political stage, I don’t think the Royals are better off today than they were 12 months ago. We’re not winning more games at the ML level and our farm system appears weaker than it was.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoThe Detroit Tigers were an unpopular destination after their impression of the ‘62 Mets, but you know what they did? They overpaid for quality free agents before they build a minor league system. Their owner rightly realized the onus is on him to proactively invest in his team - Glass, on the other hand seems to think spending is a reactionary act.
Which approach is right? Which team has had success and which has not?
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoI think money isn’t everything, but I do think it’s a big thing. We’ll probably have to overpay to get whoever we get, but with a free agent class as deep as there is this year, we can get SPs if we’re determined to.
Or, to put it another way, if Gil Meche would come to a team that was supposedly worse than an expansion team, I think we can get SPs to come to the team now.
If we fail to upgrade the rotation in the offseason, I don’t see how Glass and Moore can plausibly claim they’re trying to win.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoGil Meche is the one feather in David Glass’s cap. Jose Guillen was not. Still, Gil Meche is a pittance compared to the investment Mike Ilitch made in the Tigers after they hit rock bottom.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoAgree re: pizza Godfather’s Illich, but he still does not have a World Series crown to show for any of that spending.
Are they competitive, yes. Which would be nice. Maybe Glass should turn Wal-Mart into a giant pizzeria.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoTerry, the primary goal is to make the postseason. Once you’re in the postseason, it’s pretty much a crapshoot.
Illich’s spending put the Tigers in the position to win a World Series, which is all any fanbase can ask for from their owner.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoYou’re using an argument you don’t believe — the Royals weren’t worse than an expansion team. And everyone hated the Meche deal at the time. It turned out okay, but if that’s the kind of deal you have in mind, we’re in trouble.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim, I never said I don’t believe that.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoDaniel, regarding the Tigers, what period are you referring to?
I agree with you it’s all about making the playoffs.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoDaniel, my comment about not believing was directed at Brendan.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoMy point re: Detroit is that every time Illich seems to land a big FA, everybody wets their pants and proclaims them division winners. And it seems that whenever this happens, they underperform To my knowledge they have not made the postseason since they signed Cabrera, and they’ve got an uphill climb this year, with Fielder.
It’s the pitching, the usual culprit, and the hardest one to predict. Pitchers break down and fail. Even the great Verlander has shown he is human, after all, lately.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoTerry, Detroit went to the ALCS last year.
Larry Tindle
8 months, 2 weeks agoRoyals Record as of September 11th last 4 years.
2012 63-77 2011 62-86 2010 58-83 2009 56-85
Not very far ahead in the wins but far less loses.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim - forgot. I have senior moments far more often than I’d like. Plus, I have a hard time remembering lunch. Thx.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoThanks, Larry. I feel much better now. :)
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoI don’t believe that the Royals were anywhere near as bad as an expansion team, but I do think that they were worse in 2006 than they are now. And yet, we signed Meche. So I’m confident that we can get good pitchers to come here this offseason if we want.
We probably need to offer more money, and we may need to offer an extra year, but if we non-tender Hoch, we should have $25M or more to spend, which ought to be enough for two guys better than anyone we have right now.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoThe 2003 Tigers went 43-119, had little talent on the ML roster and a poorly regarded farm system. Does that qualify as worse than expansion level?
In the following offseasons the Tiger’s signed Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Kenny Rogers, et al, plus drafted and developed Justin Verlander and a mere three years later the Tigers won 95 games and made it to the World Series.
If the Tigers can go from ‘worse than an expansion team’ to the World Series in three years, why can’t we? Our owner has the money to spend but won’t proactively spend it like Illich did. Detroit didn’t have any inherent advantages in signing free agents like New York or LA. Illich simply had the will to win and he did what he had to turn his franchise around. Glass has shown no such gumption.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoThe Tigers had a lot mor going for them than over spending on a few free agents. Pudge was thought to be too old and beat up to continue playing catcher. Ordonez had a major injury and was out when he was signed. Both were big risks (flawed players) that worked out wonderfully. And Verlander came along. I’m not making excuses for Moore, he is failing. But expecting to recreate that Tiger magic is unlikely.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoBrendan, Meche was not highly sought after If Moore does something crazy like that, he will just be tying down our next GM with a bad contract.. The Royals need to convince potential players that they are close to winning and committed. And they aren’t and they aren’t. Think about it — would you want to play for a contender in a big market or for Yost and Moore on a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in 25 years in a cow town (most people think is) in Kansas?
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoMy point is that it’s possible to go from ‘worse than an expansion team’ to contender in less than six years.
Cedric Tallis took the Royals from expansion draft in ‘68 to 85 wins in ‘71 and 88 wins in ‘73.
It can be done, but you have to have a willing owner and savvy front office. I have little faith in ownership and my faith in the front office is waning quickly.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim W -
My memory is that the Blue Jays offered Meche something like 4/44 and the Royals offered him an extra year to get him to come here.
Miami got Buehrle last year; Minnesota got Willingham last year. Not every player will go wherever the money’s highest (e.g. Wilson and Pujols passing up bigger deals from Miami to play for the Angels for less) but enough will that the Royals can improve their pitching if they want to.
In addition to going after free agents, I think the Royals should see if the Red Sox are willing to make a deal involving Jon Lester similar to one the Yankees and Pirates made last year for AJ Burnett. And given that we have two guys coming back midseason, I think it could be helpful to take a flyer on a veteran returning from injury. When Duffy and Paulino return, we can ether trade the veteran away if they’re good or just DFA them if they’re bad. I’m thinking of somebody like Gavin Floyd (if the ChiSox don’t pick up the option) or Scott Baker (if the Twins don’t pick up the option), just to name a couple guys from inside the division.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoI really don’t seee Glass spending money unless he can get a better TV deal from FoxSports, or somebody else, or attendance increases significantly. The latter, of course, won’t happen unless pitching improves dramatically next year and the offense is more consistent, and the team competitive.
And stay competitive to attract free agents.
All of the above seem like long shots, for now.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoGlass is a direct beneficiary of the massive $5+ billion dollar deal signed between MLB and ESPN. If he won’t increase spending with that influx of cash, he never will.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoBut how much is Glass’ cut, and over how many years?
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoTerry -
Glass’ cut is about $12M per year beginning in 2014. Rany had a good write-up on that money and the additional money to come: http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2012/08/money-comes-in-excuses-go-out.html
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoI think if he spends at all, it will be for a 2nd tier pitcher, and they’ll just take their chances that it works out.
Maybe we can get lucky and get a decent couple years out of him, like Meche, b/4 he blows out HIS arm/ elbow shoulder.
Jim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks ago“We’re 13 games out of first place.”
You seem to believe that overpaying a couple of FA pitchers will win a championship, so should have no problem accepting that a healthy Paulino, Duffy, Soria, Cain, Perez, and Getz for the whole year might accomplish the same thing.
“The idea that an expansion team was stronger than the Allard Baird Royals always rested on the premise that expansion teams got extra draft picks to bolster their talent.”
It actually rests on looking at the first year talent the Royals had, sufficient to play well and having a stocked farm system and enough bodies to trade for some names we might have heard of. The extra picks were called “the expansion draft”.
Daniel, the ‘03 Tigers had the 12th ranked farm system, per Baseball America:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/2006/26854.html
Interesting to compare Tampa, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Detroit to what KC had.
“Rany had a good write-up on that money”
“If he won’t increase spending with that influx of cash, he never will.”
Some appear unaware of the law of supply and demand. David Glass will have more money, so will all the other owners, and the larger pile of money will pursue the same finite pool of talent, which is why I expect long term contracts to be record setting this winter, second year and beyond amounts spiking. If Zack was worth 5/125, he may now be worth 5/185.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoBrendan, the baseball world collectively thought the Royals were nuts for signing Meche to that contract. Another year guaranteed at $11 million was HUGE at that time. Toronto’s offer was over the top and desperate as it was. No premier destinations were in the hunt (my point). Meche’s ERAs for the four years leading up to his signing: 4.59, 5.01, 5.09 and 4.48.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoCool, now you’re just making stuff up.
Jim F, Jul 19 JTR: “Expansion teams get an expansion draft and extra draft picks, which is why they tend to compete sooner than the Royals have been able to.”
Jim F, Sep 9 JTR: “The extra picks were called “the expansion draft”.”
You made that argument because it was clear that Gordon, Greinke, and Butler (players already in the system when Moore took over) were better than any team’s haul from an expansion draft. But in addition to inheriting that trio, Moore also got more and better draft picks than an expansion team.
The 2006 Royals were better than an expansion team, and are taking much longer to win than the expansion Royals did.
Jeff Frost
8 months, 2 weeks agoWOW- What a ton of discussion here! My thoughts, for what it is worth. First, Guthrie is not represented by Boras and has stated he likes the makeup of this team- who wouldn’t if you were a pitcher- great defense, amazing pen, young, and on the verge. I see him signing a 4-year $40 million, about the going rate for a B-tier free agent pitcher, which he is.
Second, anyone that is counting on anything from Duffy, Jack, Paulino, or even Lamb somewhat, for next year- no way! They will pitch next year, but effectiveness won’t be until 2014.
Third- just think if we had Salvy all year?? Seriously, I think he is worth 10 more wins this year. Instead of 63-77, we are 73-67 and vying for the division. He is huge!
Hosmer- will be OK. I would not worry about his sophomore slump. Look at Beltran- 1999 .297 22 HRs 108 RBS 27 SB 2000- .244 8 HRs 47 RBIs. Hos is too good not to be better. I also would not start worrying about stashing or saving money for Moose or Hos already. They are ours through 2015 for Hos and 2016 for Moose. Plenty of time.
I think we CAN sign Zach. When he left here the culture was poison! He was surround by the Jose Guillens of the world, no defense, the worst pen in MLB and a culture of mediocrity. We now have the best defense in the AL, the best pen in the AL, and an offense that will continue to get better, plus a great pitcher’s park. He still has a house in KC and honestly, him and Dayton got along well. We could easily afford the $25 per year for 4 years. KC will make approximately $35 million this year, profit. Plus, who wouldn’t want to pitch to Salvy.
We seriously have future all-stars in Gordon, Escobar, Perez, and Hosmer. Moose could be because 3rd is weak. This team is one on the rise. Dayton, contrary to belief has done an exception job as GM. The only area that is lacking is starting pitcher development. He needs to talk to Atlanta and figure that program out. Other than that, we have a lot of options of players that could be traded to get us a starter. I feel good about where we are headed, much better than I did at the end of last year. This reminds me of us coming off 1973 and all the high expectations for 74, but everyone hated McKeon. Toxic culture at the beginning of 1975, but the Rat was hired! 42-18 to close the year and set up 1976! Oh, what a magic year that was! I see this year being like 1975 somewhat, only no uprising against Ned, who the players like, play hard for and respect. I don’t like how he always manages, but all you can ask is 100% out of your players, and he seems to get that everyday, win or lose! Francona didn’t get that! Go Royals!
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoAgree on supply and demand. And a free agent has more value to a contender than to a mediocre team or an also ran. Wins 90 and 91 are worth a whole lot more than wins 80 and 81. The Royals have to develop starting pitching internally or obtin it by trading other talent. They have miserably failed and free agency alone isn’t going to fix it.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoBrendan, what am I making up?
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoUnder my scenario, next year’s team will have two pitchers better than anyone we have now, will have Wil Myers instead of Francoeur in right field, and will have at least replacement level production at 1B (if Hosmer continues to struggle like this next year, he’ll be sent down). That combined should be worth about ten wins (five from SPs, four from Francoeur-to-Myers, one from 1B) over this year.
I think that team is probably about an 87/88 win team, which should be good enough to contend in the AL Central.
By simple math, that means I think that this year’s team, with similar health to my projection (meaning missing Duffy and Paulino for half the year, but with reasonable health for position players) was a 77/78-win team. That’s not even close where we’d need to be to “win the division” and it’s way too big of a gap for better health from Paulino and Duffy to make up.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoI should have been more clear. Jim F was making stuff up. I quoted him to illustrate it.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoJeff F -
There is certainly a wide range of opinions on how much Guthrie will get. We will just have to see what this offseason brings.
On a more objective point, both Hosmer and Moustakas are under team control through 2017. Team control lasts for six full years and part of a seventh. For those two players, last year was the partial year, this is the first full year, and there are five more to go.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim - agree we need to develop from within. Who are your best candidates for the rotation next year?
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim W -
I don’t understand why, if we have the money and we have the need, we shouldn’t spend the money to fill the need.
We only have three years left on the contract of Butler, our best hitter, and Gordon, our best player. Treating next year as another lost year to run out a pitching staff full of #4/5 starters and minor league callups just seems like a waste. If we’re still in total rebuilding mode with our pitching, we should acknowledge we’re not going to contend any time soon and trade away Butler and Gordon while their contracts are still exceedingly valuable.
Thayne Griffin
8 months, 2 weeks agoOh my. What did I miss while at work???
To digress, I HATE that we have to play the Twins in this series. The Twins have had our number, while we’ve played well against pretty much everyone else lately (for the most part). Why can’t we just always play CHW or DET?
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoBrendan, I thought you were accusing me of making stuff up so I found this quote from Jerry Crasnick about the Meche signing.
“The most cutting (and humorous) assessment came from Sports Illustrated’s John Heyman who observed that Gil Meche may be French for ‘money thrown down the toilet.’”
Unfortunately, Royals fans did learn how to say that phrase in French a few years later upon the signing of a certain right fielder.
Crasnick says the Cubs and Blue Jays each offered 4 years and 10 plus million. I can’t paste the link on my iPad but it’s a good reminder how far the Royals had to go to sign a very mediocre starting pitcher.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoBrendan, i like your optimism. I juat don’t see the Royals picking up two FA pitchers who are going to add enough wins to contend. While I hate to write it, yes I think we should trade one or two of our veterans. The Royals do not fully appreciate Gordon and do not use him to his full advantage while at least a couple teams recognize Gordon as one of the best hitters in the game. That may be the basis for a favorable trade.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoMeche was anything but mediocore… 125 ERA+ and 110+ ERA his first two seasons before Trey Hillman ruined his career.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim Fetterolf
8 months, 2 weeks agoFor those interested in the Royals’ expansion draft of ‘68, might be a couple of names recognizable:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968MajorLeagueBaseballexpansion_draft
JW, been suggesting Gordon as trade bait for awhile, he has value and a friendly contract and should bring a nice haul of prospects. That path has worked for a couple of other teams over the years.
“Cool, now you’re just making stuff up.”
Royals had 49 picks in the ‘68 amateur draft, an extra year of drafting on top of the expansion draft.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoI’m willing to bet Wil Myers gets traded b/4 Alex Gordon.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoDaniel, I’m not saying Meche pitched mediocre for the Royals. Anything but. But his career had been mediocre up to the time of his signing.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoWil is unproven; he won’t fetch enough to move the needle on the starting pitching side.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim W -
So the Cubs and Blue Jays each offered 10+ million for 4 years and the Royals offered 10+ million for 5 years? Offering an extra year is an extra cost, and I think you’re right that the Royals are going to have to offer extra $ or extra years, but if it’s an extra year for a 28-year old pitcher, I can live with that.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoAgree re: Wil, but the Chosen One and another propsect might.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim F -
Teams could draft as many rounds as they wanted in the drafts back then, so every team could have as many draft picks as they wanted. However, the Royals and all of the other expansion teams were not allowed to draft in the first three rounds of the 1968 draft. Drafting into round 52 was neither a special privilege (the long-established Dodgers kept going to round 71) nor at all comparable to the value of picks in rounds one through three.
First you claimed that you meant something different by extra draft picks. Now you’re claiming that expansion teams got extra draft picks in the 1968 draft. Both claims are 100% wrong. You’re just inventing an alternate reality to suit your theories.
Terry Payne
8 months, 2 weeks agoI am very curious about something: have you ever just, you know, let something go?
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoBrendan, it was $55 million versus $40+ million. In other words, it was more per year plus another year. GMs in big markets were torching DM for paying so much. It was viewed as way above market at the time. I suspect 4 years and $40 million would have done more than raise eyebrows. However, I did notice and do agree that the extra (5th) year for a 28 year old is not just deferred money. At least there’s a decent chance it won’t be.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoTerry -
I’m surprised you don’t ask the same question of Jim F. I was always taught that the first rule of holes is: stop digging.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim W -
I think a comparable overpay (a 4th year for E. Jackson, a 3rd year for A. Sanchez, a 2nd year for Guthrie, etc) is likely for the Royals this offseason, but if the price per year is right, I can live with an extra year, which brings risk for the team but also potential reward if the player outperforms.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 2 weeks agoI think you are underestimating the market and the premium. I think it could be a 25% premium plus a year on top of an already pricy deal. Guthrie is an odd situation and possibly an opportunity for us. I think we need to move quickly with him. A longer term deal would be a killer since he turns 34 in April.
Brendan Woodbury
8 months, 2 weeks agoJim W -
You make good points. If the FA market is that pricey, I hope we look at the trade market. Taking on salary and trading away some prospects might end up beinga better approach than overpaying 25% and extra years. Also, a strategy of picking up injured pitchers on one-year deals would also be more important if we can’t get any front line starters.
If we really go into 2013 without significant new pieces in the rotation, I think it’s obviously time to fire Moore and I think the new guy/gal ought to trade away Gordon and Butler because we’re not going to contend in their windows if we don’t start upgrading pitching now.
Jim Wilson
8 months, 1 week agoAgree.