Games: Minnesota Twins, Sept. 2: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Minnesota Twins

Sep2

The Royals avoid a sweep

The Royals won this one 6-4. Luis Mendoza probably deserved the win but didn’t get it. Tim Collins got the win but probably didn’t deserve it. (More on that later.)

After the game, manager Ned Yost said he pulled Mendoza after five innings because Luis was starting to labor. Asked to define “labor,” Ned said that when Luis is pitching well, he is ahead in the count and down in the zone. When Luis is laboring, he is behind in the count and up in the zone. Mendoza got through five innings with a lead, and Yost said his plan was to mix and match the rest of the way.

Collins gave up the lead, but the offense came right back, scored two more runs and made Ned’s mix-and-match plan work out.

Game notes

• Minnesota’s Joe Mauer doubled in the first inning. Mauer seems to stay balanced and controlled as well as any hitter the Royals face. He doesn’t try to extend or distort his swing to reach borderline balls.

• Recently hitting coach Kevin Seitzer talked about the Royals’ young hitters and how they have to learn the same thing: Do not reach for a bad pitch. (We’ve got a video of this conversation on the way.)

• Mendoza gave up a home run to Chris Parmelee on a fastball down and slightly away. The problem may have been when the pitch was thrown more than where. Parmelee got a fastball in a 3-1 fastball count and was able to drive it over the fence.

• In the second inning with the bases loaded and nobody out, Eric Hosmer did a good job of getting a pitch he could hit in the air for a sac fly. Ballplayers call that a “professional” at-bat. The hitter knows what he needs to do and gets it done.

• Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain stole third and second, and after the game, I asked Moose how that happened. Mike told me that he looked around, saw that no Twin was holding him, so he got a good jump off the pitcher, Esmerling Vasquez.

• The double steal meant that Tony Abreu’s two-strike single was worth two runs instead of one. Yost was asked what constitutes a clutch hitter, and he said it is a guy who can take every at-bat the same way. Some people think you rise to the occasion. Most good hitters think you ignore the occasion and do what you’ve always done.

• In the fourth inning, Mendoza had Minnesota’s Justin Morneau 3-1 — another fastball count. This time, Luis threw a 79-mph slider and let a hitter who was sitting dead red pull the ball into the crowd. Every hitter is watching — at least the smart ones are — and throwing something other than a fastball in a fastball count creates doubt in the hitters’ minds.

• If the hitters aren’t sure, now you can throw fastballs in fastball counts and have a better chance of getting away with it.

• Both teams tried to bunt a runner to third, and both bunters got the ball too close to the mound. The pitchers were able to field the bunts and throw out the lead runner. Chris Getz was right. I now believe those bunts need to go to the right side and take the pitcher away from third base.

• There are times Royals third-base coach Eddie Rodriguez will get conservative about sending a runner home, but I’ve noticed it often is with runners like Billy Butler or Salvador Perez. Lately I’ve seen Eddie push it with runners like Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and David Lough.

• After the game, Lough said the foul ball that dropped behind him went into the sun at the last second, but David also said he is still learning his new stadium. When a new outfielder shows up, they take him out and hit fungos off all the surfaces he will have to deal with so he can see how the ball reacts.

• David also is still dealing with the upper deck. Minor-league parks don’t have them, and guys who are new to the big leagues have to adjust to picking the ball out of a crowd.

• Reliever Tim Collins, who has mostly pitched well, pitched himself into a jam with two down, bases loaded and Alexi Casilla at the plate. Collins got the count to 2-2. This is an “action pitch,” meaning Collins wanted to settle the matter on that count. By going to 3-2 with two out, Collins let the base-runners get a head start and turned a possible run by the man on second (Ryan Doumit) into a sure run by letting a less-than-fleet runner get started early.

• Mendoza gave up two earned runs in five innings. Francisley Bueno pitched one-and-two-thirds innings and gave up nothing. Aaron Crow struck out the one hitter he faced. Greg Holland got his 10th save in 10 tries. In fact, the one pitcher who did not have a good day was Collins. He gave back the lead, pitched one inning and gave up two runs. And guess who got the win? Always take statistics — including the ones you see on this site — with a grain of salt.

Some statistics

One of the arguments for keeping numbers is that your memory can play tricks on you. If someone does something really good or really bad, it will stand out more than it should and lead you to false conclusions. Here are Luke Hochevar’s 2012 starts, grouped roughly by results:

Bad starts

1.) Cleveland / 4.0 innings / 7 earned runs

2.) Detroit / 4.0 innings / 9 earned runs

3.) New York / 2.1 innings / 7 earned runs

4.) Oakland / 4.2 innings / 6 earned runs

5.) Minnesota / 6.0 innings / 5 earned runs

6.) Los Angeles / 3.0 innings / 6 earned runs

7.) Baltimore / 5.1 innings / 7 earned runs

8.) Minnesota / 1.2 innings / 8 earned runs

So-so starts

1.) Baltimore / 6.0 innings / 4 earned runs

2.) Pittsburgh / 6.0 innings / 4 earned runs

3.) Chicago / 5.0 innings / 3 earned runs

Good starts

1.) Los Angeles / 6.1 innings / 2 earned runs

2.) Toronto / 5.0 innings / 1 earned run

3.) Cleveland / 6.1 innings / 2 earned runs

4.) Chicago / 7.0 innings / 0 earned runs

5.) New York / 6.2 innings / 3 earned runs

6.) Baltimore / 4.2 innings /1 earned run (his pitch count got up early)

7.) Milwaukee / 7.1 innings / 3 earned runs

8.) Houston / 7.2 innings / 0 earned runs

9.) Tampa Bay / 9.0 innings / 0 earned runs

10.) Toronto / 5.0 innings / 2 earned runs

11.) Minnesota / 7.0 innings / 1 earned run

12.) Cleveland / 6.0 innings / 3 earned runs

13.) Texas / 6.0 innings / 1 earned run

14.) Oakland / 7.0 innings / 3 earned runs

15.) Tampa Bay / 8.0 innings / 0 earned runs

16.) Boston / 8.0 innings / 4 earned runs

Comments

Daniel Wesley
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Now that’s a definition of ‘clutch’ that I can get behind!

A lot of people seem to think ‘clutch’ is a magical skill that allows a .275 hitter to somehow become a .300 hitter in special circumstances… when in actuality it’s a skill that allows that .275 hitter to remain a .275 hitter when he might otherwise let the pressure turn him into a .200 hitter. (Whew, that was a mouthful!)
Thayne Griffin
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Wasn’t watching the game too closely today, so I did wonder why Mendoza was pulled so early. Always love the information I can get on here.

If Moose just took off on the steal to 3rd, Cain did a great job of being aware that he was going to pull off the double steal.
Daniel Wesley
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Re: Hochever, on your list I would move “good starts” #2, #6, and #10 to the “So-so starts” column, which means Luke has 13 definitive good starts and 14 so-so or bad starts.

But even if we debate those, is it acceptable for a 29 year old in his 5th full season to struggle as frequently as he does? I don’t think so.

If David Glass and Dayton Moore go out this offseason and sign a Shaun Marcum or Kyle Lohse and rightly promote Jake Odorizzi, does Luke remain one of the best 5 options for starting pitcher? I don’t think so.
Terry Payne
8 months, 3 weeks ago

What Daniel said. Luke’s gotta go. I’d rather have an also-ran, such as Luis Mendoza, going out there every day, rather than a Mr. Potential like Hochevar. Time to get off the pot, Mr. Moore, Mr. Glass.
Thayne Griffin
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Agree Terry. Just think about the difference in money paid to those two as well ..Has to be millions.

Maybe Hoch could work in the ‘pen though. Never know until you try
Josh Cooper
8 months, 3 weeks ago

The problem is we can’t afford to keep Hoch around for the five or so million it will take if he’s just going to be a bullpen arm. They’d have to come to some sort of agreement that he’ll sign for less to do this, and I don’t think Hoch would take it.
Gaines Arnold
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, love the not-so-subtle digs at stats people you seem to pepper your commentary with every once in awhile. After, as Daniel mentioned, making a great reference to what a “clutch” hitter really is, you have to go and somehow equate pitcher wins with real statistical analysis. Wins, RBIs, ERA and other old arbitrary “stats” are laughed at now. I agree with your assessment that the fact that Collins got a “win” for his less than stellar effort is ridiculous, I just wish you had not included the expected dig.
Terry Payne
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Anybody can do the stats. It takes a true journalist to run a site like this. You go, Lee.
Lee Judge
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Gaines: I don’t think saying “take statistics with a grain of salt” is a shot at the numbers guys any more than saying “our memories play tricks on us” is a shot at the eyeball guys.

What I’ve said fairly consistently is you need both to have a complete picture: context is everything.

Some people may laugh at “wins” but they’re still used in almost every reference to a pitcher’s performance. They’re listed in every record book, mentioned on TV and drug into arbitration cases.

Pointing out that the one guy who pitched poorly yesterday got credit for the win is just a reminder to all of us—including me—that no number—or memory—tells the entire story.
Don Aubry
8 months, 3 weeks ago

I suppose that by the definition given of clutch hitter, his average should be slightly better in clutch situations. Don’t situations with runners on base give a slight advantage to the hitter compared to the way a pitcher can operate with the bases empty? Moreover, with a runner on third and less than two outs, a batter has an opportunity to make an out and drive in a run without being charged with an at-bat. Over the long run, that has to raise the average slightly.
Jeff Frost
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Nice job Lee on TV with Joel and Monty. Whether it is your column or TV, always informative!!
Terry Payne
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, here’s a vote for hitting from both sides of the plate.

Judging the Royals