Games: Boston Red Sox, Aug. 24: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Boston Red Sox

Aug24

Two pitches that changed the game

Bruce Chen gave up two runs in the first, settled in and then threw five consecutive scoreless innings. In the seventh, he walked the first batter he faced, Mauro Gomez. Chen was at 98 pitches, the tying run was on and the winning run was at the plate, so Ned Yost brought in Kelvin Herrera. Kelvin was facing ex-Royal Mike Aviles.

Herrera quickly got Mike 0-2 and then left a pitch too far up and too far out over the plate. Aviles hit a soft single into right. The tying run was at second, the winning run at first and another ex-Royal, Scott Podsednik, hitting ninth was up to bat. Podsednik laid down a sacrifice and now both runs were in scoring position with one down.

The plan for getting out of the inning without a run scoring appeared to go this way: have Herrera blow away leadoff hitter Pedro Ciriaco, then bring in Tim Collins to get lefty Jacoby Ellsbury. Ciriaco took a 99 mph fastball for strike one (and I’m guessing it looked about 199 after facing Chen for three at-bats), dialed it up for another fastball and instead got a changeup down in the zone and swung over it.

At this point, 0-2, I wondered if Herrera might go back up the ladder with another fastball at the top or above the zone, but he threw another change, this time down and in. Ciriaco golfed it softly over third base for a double, two runs and a Red Sox lead that held up. Herrera’s two 0-2 pitches changed the game.

Game notes

In the first inning, 20 miles an hour separated Jon Lester’s fastest and slowest pitch. He gave up an infield single to Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar lined out, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler struck out. For the first four Red Sox batters, only eight miles an hour separated Chen’s fastest and slowest pitch. By the fifth hitter, Bruce was getting more separation in speed, but by then Bruce has given up two runs.
Chen throws a lot of cutters that bore in on a right-handed hitter’s hands. When Bruce gets it far enough inside, it’s a tough pitch. When he doesn’t get it far enough inside, righties can pull the pitch and do some damage.
Bruce threw one of those cutters to Ryan Lavarnway, and the Red Sox catcher got the bat head out and ripped the pitch into the crowd down the left field line. Leave the same pitch a bit further out over the plate and it’s off the left field wall.
In the bottom of the second, Johnny Giavotella threw away a double-play ball. His footwork on the pivot seemed off and the ball sailed wide of first. Johnny’s error didn’t result in any runs, but cost Chen 10 extra pitches and two extra hitters before the inning was over.
Podsednik, singled later in the inning and Aviles couldn’t score from second, even with two out. As I wrote a couple days ago: in Fenway, scoring from second with the left fielder positioned so close to the infield can be difficult.
In the third inning, Eric Hosmer homered over the Monster. Having the left field wall to aim for the next three games may be good for Eric. The Green Monster can be an inviting target for left-handers who wait, go to the opposite field and try to drive the ball off the wall.
The Monster can also be bad for right-handers who get home-run happy and start trying to pull everything.
Gordon doubled high off the same wall and Podsednik misplayed the ball. Scott was on the warning track — too close to the wall if it hits above the scoreboard — and the carom went over his head. Jacoby Ellsbury might have prevented a triple by coming all the way over from center and fielding the ricochet Podsednik missed.
Left fielders who are really good at playing the wall can take a ball off the wall, catch it as they turn back to the infield and turn doubles into long singles.
Brayan Pena threw Ellsbury out trying to steal in the bottom of the inning, thanks to high fastball (easier to catch and throw) and a nice catch and tag by Giavotella. Gio got out in front of the bag so he could move with Pena’s throw as it tailed to the first base side. Unfortunately, Johnny didn’t get his left foot out of the base path and Ellsbury took the opportunity to use his leg to hook Johnny’s as he slid past. Ellsbury dumped Gio on his face in an attempt to jar the ball loose, but Gio held on.
In the fourth, Johnny took a hittable fastball with the bases loaded. There are times to sit dead red: certain counts, right after the pitching coach visits the mound (most of the time he’s out there to tell the pitcher to throw strikes) and when the bases are loaded and the pitcher wants to get ahead.
Gio got away with taking the fastball, by hitting a dribbler to the first baseman, Mauro Gomez. Lester covered first, but the feed from Gomez was late and behind the Red Sox pitcher. The late feed made Lester try to catch the ball and tag the base at the same time. He caught the ball, but missed the bag.
With the bases still loaded, Lorenzo Cain took another hittable fastball 0-0. Cain didn’t get as lucky as Gio, chasing two pitches out of the zone and striking out to leave ‘em loaded.
A 67 mph curveball to Podsednik had him out on his front foot and Scott struck out swinging. Chen’s speed separation between his fastest and slowest pitch was now 23 mph.
Bruce was encouraged to speed opposition bats up first and then slow them down. I don’t know for sure, but it seemed possible that he didn’t get to the “slow them down” part of the formula soon enough in the first inning.
In the sixth, Bruce faced David Ortiz for the third time. Ortiz had seen exactly two pitches from Chen and already had a single and a double. Bruce threw four pitches over the top and got the count to 2-2. With two strikes on Ortiz, Chen dropped down side arm for the first time. If a left-handed pitcher suddenly drops down on a left-handed hitter, the new look can freeze the hitter. That’s exactly what happens to Ortiz and he struck out looking. Bruce once told me he didn’t know what arm angle he’d use until he started his motion, but it seems likely that Bruce was saving that sidearm motion until he had two strikes on Ortiz.

Scoring decision overturned

Last Sunday Jeremy Guthrie took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. A scoring decision said Guthrie lost that no-hitter in the seventh on a Paul Konerko groundball. That decision has now been overturned on appeal. Officially, Guthrie made it to the eighth inning before he gave up a hit.

I’ve got to give Ned Yost some credit: he said he was so mad about the initial scoring decision he couldn’t think straight for a while. But, even though he was angry, he made a very good decision that day: he kept managing as if the no-hitter was still going.

The last time someone took a no-hitter deep — Luis Mendoza — Ned would not get someone up in the pen until Luis gave up a hit. He didn’t want Mendoza looking down at the pen to see someone warming up while he was in the middle of throwing a no-hitter.

Ned did the same thing with Guthrie on Sunday. Even after Guthrie gave up a hit — according to official score keeper Del Black — Ned didn’t get anyone up. In fact, Yost didn’t get a pitcher up until Guthrie gave up a clean hit in the eighth. I suspect — I’ll ask when they get home — that Ned figured the scoring decision would be appealed and might be overturned.

Imagine if Yost had pulled Guthrie after giving up the first hit and then that scoring decision was overturned. Yost avoided that by continuing to manage as if the decision would be overturned. Pretty smart for a guy who wasn’t thinking straight.

Wil Myers

Bob Dutton, Royals beat writer for The Star, had an interesting piece about Jeff Francoeur and Wil Myers Friday morning. First, the Royals still owe Francoeur $6.75 million dollars next season and are not inclined to eat the contract or accept little in return. They need Frenchy to return to his 2011 approach that allowed him to hit .285, 47 doubles, 20 home runs and drive in 87 RBIs in order to keep him in the lineup ormove him and get anything worthwhile in return.

They also think Myers still has things to work on: he still chases too many off-speed pitches and hasn’t “overmatched” Triple-A the way Eric Hosmer did before his call up. (Eric was hitting .439 in Omaha when he got promoted.)

The Royals are also concerned about the roster: they worry about the number of prospects eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if not placed on the 40-man roster. Dutton wrote that one club official estimated there are a dozen players under consideration for what might be three or four spots.

Myers doesn’t have to be protected until next season. Does it make sense to give him a September call up and use one of those spots so he can play in some meaningless games? Especially at the cost of losing another prospect? According to Dutton, the Royals may let Myers come to camp next spring and compete for a job as a non-roster player.

(Over time, I’ve narrowed the focus of this website to the areas that often don’t get extensive coverage: breakdowns of plays and strategies from the point of view of the people who play, coach and manage the games. There’s no shortage of websites that look at the game from a statistical point of view or like to offer advice on front office issues. I try to focus on the game between the white lines and what the participants have to say about that game. As a result, I have no special expertise or insight to offer on a great many baseball issues. That’s why I read all Bob Dutton’s stuff — he knows about parts of the game that I don’t. If you’re a Royals fan and you’re not reading him, you should. Nobody has more overall information about a baseball team than the local beat writer.)

Comments

Aaron Reese
9 months, 3 weeks ago

This was one of those losses where the little things added up: little things done right by Boston, who was basically playing their B-team, and little things done wrong by the Royals.

I didn’t much like Yost leaving Chen in the game for the eighth. Chen didn’t pitch poorly, but still issued the walk, and then Herrera came in during a cluttered inning.

Wil Myers is still suffering slightly with breaking stuff, but he’s not facing enough quality breaking stuff in AAA to learn how to deal with it. I’d rather have him come up and get some reps in the meaningless games, rather than learn to hit at a major league level when we may have a playoff spot on the line. This isn’t only about the Royals. It’s also about Myers’ development. Scouts all think he’s languishing in the minors. I don’t know who the Royals won’t be able to protect, but plenty of teams have to deal with this problem every year. They could figure something out. Myers should be up and hitting this year.
Luke Healy
9 months, 3 weeks ago

The Royals really failed to execute when they had the bases loaded with one out in the fourth. They got lucky on Gio’s infield hit, and then Cain struck out (wonder what Gordon may have done here in the leadoff spot with all those people on base), failing to bring a runner home from third. Escobar then couldn’t deliver with two outs. There are many points in a baseball game that can effect the outcome, but this situation was one the Royals really gave away and subsequently lost the game.

Chen could have been pulled before the 8th, but that’s hindsight and he was pitching ok enough to maybe keep him going and try to save the bullpen entering a long stretch of games. It didn’t turn out that way, and Herrera couldn’t execute once he got ahead. The Red Sox hitters hit some pretty tough pitches too.

Myers should in no way come up for meaningless games this September, as it will take a year off how long the Royals are able to control him. Also with the 40 man roster situation you’re basically giving away a player if you call him up. Not worth it at this point. Let him compete in spring training and hopefully that motivates Frenchy to approach next season like last.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee -

Thanks for the good short summary of why Myers shouldn’t be called up this year.

To the reasons listed (development, tight space on the 40-man roster), I’d add one more: the Royals get Myers for all of six seasons and part of a seventh. If we call him up in September, that’s the partial season and next year will be one of the six full ones. If we wait until late April of next year to call him up, the five and a half months of 2013 will be the partial season and we won’t start ticking off full seasons until 2014.
Lee Judge
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Luke: I think you’re right, the bases loaded at-bat with Cain at the plate was a key moment in the game. I often try to pick a moment that changed the game and explore it in depth at the beginning of each column and then add short bits of interest that appear as the game goes along.

I have to decide what that key moment will be minutes after a ball game ends and I’m not sure I always pick the right one—and of course there are lots of key moments in any close game.

During their long losing streak Ned said the players were sometimes being cautious when they needed to be aggressive and sometimes being aggressive when they needed to be cautious—part of the learning curve for young players.

I was taught that when the table is set (big runs in scoring position) there’s nothing more to wait for.

While it’s true Lester had walked two in the inning, Moustakas never got a strike and Hosmer got a 1-0 sinker with Moose on second and a base to work with.

With the bases loaded, Lester had no more wiggle room and I’d think hitters would be gearing up for the first hittable fastball they saw. Both Gio and Cain took that fastball, Gio got away with it, Cain didn’t. Ahead 0-1 Lester expanded the zone and Cain chased.

As for Myers: the feeling seems to be he hasn’t mastered Triple A breaking stuff at this point and it won’t get any easier in the big leagues.

One night over dinner, Bob Dutton went over some of the prospects that might go unprotected if Myers is called up and some of them were pitchers. That’s a pretty steep price to pay to see what Myers can do in September.

Add to that the feeling that it’s hard to evaluate in September because the call-ups dilute the competition and you can see why the Royals are thinking the way they’re thinking.

And you’re right, Frenchy needs to get motivated to go back to his 2011 approach. The video he made (currently on the home page) is interesting because he admits he thought he had it figured out and could just cruise. He’s still only 28, if Jeff can keep his head on straight he should have some good baseball left in him.
Lee Judge
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Brendan: The credit for that summary goes to Bob Dutton. He explained it to me one evening, it made sense and when he wrote a story about it I thought it worth repeating.

And your additonal point is well-taken: why start the clock on Myers now?

As Luke pointed out, knowing Myers is coming to spring training and will get serious consideration for a job, ought to motivate Francoeur.

As he showed in 2011, Frenchy can play some good baseball if he takes the right approach. Whether Jeff stays or goes he needs to get back to what he was doing last season.
Vicki Barnes
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, do you think that it affected Guthrie mentally to lose the no hitter, so that later he wasn’t as sharp? Since they ruled it was a hit maybe he backs off a little and that’s why he gave up the first hit in the 8th.
Terry Payne
9 months, 3 weeks ago

One thing to remember re: the Wil Myers saga: The financial clock starts to tick from the get-go, meaning if he is callled up for the last month, as I understand it he will begin to qualify as arbitration elligble from that moment and will thus cost the team more burritos down the road. Am I wrong?
Charles Purvis
9 months, 3 weeks ago

I read a lot of business reasons here to not call up Myers but not a lot of baseball ones.

This kid isn’t a commodity that keeps forever. Maybe if someone would put a stamp on him that says “Use by XX-XX-XXXX” they’d get the message.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Charles, Myers is young, so will still be with the team into his prime years, so they probably aren’t worried about expiration.

After the experiences with Hosmer, Moustakas, and Giavotella they might be legitimately worried about the size of the step from Omaha to KC and wanting a player to learn all AAA has to offer. It doesn’t do Myers or the Royals any good to have him come up early and get exposed by major-league breaking balls. We went through that last year with Kila. And Kauffman Stadium is much bigger than Werner, so questionable routes become triples and Omaha homers become doubles or fly outs.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Terry -

Most players don’t hit arbitration until they’ve completed three full seasons, so Myers wouldn’t be arb-eligible until after 2015 if we call him up this year.

However, out of the group of players who only have two full seasons complete, the fraction with the most (so called “Super Twos”) are also arb-eligible. If we call up Hosmer in late April next year, he’d almost certainly be a Super Two in 2015 and therefore arb-eligible.

So Septmeber 2012 versus April 2013 probably doesn’t make a difference on Myers’ arbitration. It does make a difference on how many years the Royals have him under team control though.
Larry Tindle
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Vicki, I think it probably effected the other team more. Once that hit was on the board there was a lot less pressure on the hitters. The pressure on hitters late in a no hit game is tremendous. It gave them new life. Prior to that hit they had the look of a team that had given up or at least were lost.
Lee Judge
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Vicki: Actually, I was impressed with Guthrie’s response to losing the no-hitter: first the crowd booed the decision, then rose and gave Jeremy a standing ovation.

In the middle of the ovation, Guthrie went into his windup and delivered a pitch. That seemed to indicate that he was extremely focused on the task at hand.

If I recall right, he got three straight batters after the scoring decision, so, no, I don’t think he was overly affected by the decision.
Terry Payne
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim - agree totally re: questionability of bringing up Myers, given early returns on Mous and Hos. Personally, I think there was way too much pressure placed on Hos, and the fact that Mous turned into such a spectacular defensive treasure takes the pressure off him to perform at the plate.

However, each player should be assessed individually. At some point, they’re going to have to give the kid (Myers) his shot to fail.

I think this city should lay off Hos. For Goodness sakes, the kid’s only 22. We railroaded Clint Hurdle out of town at about that age. To his eternal, amazing, credit he still stick with the game, road the buses, and became a big league, big-time manager. Good for him!
Jim Wilson
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, good stuff today on changing speeds. A skill that doesn’t get nearly enough recognition.
Charles Purvis
9 months, 3 weeks ago

If you want to talk about changing speeds…Boston’s Padilla has a 94mph fastball and a 50mph curve.

Judging the Royals