Games » Oakland Athletics
Aug15The at-bat of the year
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
Let’s see, Chris Getz saw 11 pitches and doubled to score the winning run. (Several people called this the at-bat of the year. Manager Ned Yost said that if it wasn’t, it was in the top five). Will Smith pitched without his best stuff and still put up a quality start and a win. The Royals are now 9-5 in August. And the defense put on more spectacular show than the average Fireworks Friday.
Shortstop Alcides Escobar made at least three spectacular plays in this game. On one, he went back to the outfield grass and gunned out the runner at first. The other two involved 360-degree spins and throwing a dart to Eric Hosmer at first. Mike Moustakas dove for a ball to his right, realized he dove too soon and crawled into position to catch the ball.
After the game, Smith talked about the defense behind him and how often it bailed him out. Will said he had zero fastball command and struggled for much of the game. Yost said the fact that a young pitcher without his best stuff could battle and keep his team in the game was a very good sign. Smith gave up two runs in seven innings. I wonder what he would do with his good stuff.
Game notes
• Alex Gordon led off the game with a single, and Escobar did not follow that with a bunt. Oakland’s third baseman, Josh Donaldson, was playing in, and that might be why Alcides hit away. (When you’re at a game and a guy with speed comes to the plate, check the third baseman’s position. You might be able to guess what will happen next.)
• Esky was safe on a fielder’s choice, but the Royals did not have a man in scoring position. Alcides took care of that on his own, stealing second and advancing to third when the catcher’s throw hit him in the leg. The infielder who covers has to do everything he can to get between the ball and the runner. The ball bounced off Esky, he advanced to third and scored on Billy Butler’s grounder to Josh McDonald.
• With two outs in the seventh and the Royals trailing 2-1, Hosmer doubled to left field. Lorenzo Cain battled with two strikes and doubled off the fence, driving in Hosmer to tie the game. Getz then followed with another double to drive in the winning run.
• Getz was down 0-2 and then saw nine more pitches, fouling off five that were too close to take, before getting the big hit.
• On Cain’s double, Oakland’s left fielder, Yoenis Cespedes, went back to the fence and jumped, but as soon as he did, he gave up on the ball, turning to look at the chain link he was about to hit. When one of the Royals’ outfielders plays the wall well, we should appreciate it. A whole lot of major-league players get uncomfortable once they hit the warning track.
• In the eighth inning, Escobar hit a flare behind first base. Esky did not come out of the box hard, and he didn’t turn on the afterburners until he was near first base. Alcides got a double, but a good throw would have had him.
The little things
The idea that “little things” don’t win ballgames has been expressed more than once by people commenting on this site. Everyone is free to reach his or her own conclusions, but as for me, I completely disagree. Look at the play on Escobar’s steal of second. Cliff Pennington was not in position to keep the ball from hitting Alcides when the catcher threw to second. If Pennington had kept himself between the ball and the runner, Alcides would not have made it to third and subsequently would not have scored.
Oakland lost by one run.
Big things are nice. Everyone likes home runs and shutouts, but over and over again I see games won and lost by little things. Being in the correct position to take a throw. Blocking a pitch in the dirt. Backing up a play. Moving a runner over. I’m sure teams would love to have 25 guys who are all capable of doing big things, but they don’t. That’s why the guys who do the little right are so valued by the people who play the game.
Outfield depth
If you haven’t already seen Bob Dutton’s story, you might not know the Royals are changing their outfield philosophy. They are going to start playing the outfield deeper. I asked new outfield coach Rusty Kuntz how much deeper, and he said five to six steps. The Royals are making this change for a variety of reasons:
• As the season goes along, players’ legs get tired, and they don’t cover as much ground as they did earlier in the year.
• The temperature goes up and the ball flies further.
• The playing surface takes a beating, and balls that were slowed down by lush grass earlier in the season start scooting through the gaps.
• Pitchers lose velocity, and a fastball that snuck by a hitter in May gets hammered in September.
The Royals’ outfielders will continue to shift laterally as the count changes if the batter is someone who cuts down on his swing with two strikes. Some hitters don’t. Their job is to pound the ball, and that doesn’t change with two strikes. Other hitters are more likely to go to the opposite field if they are trying to avoid a strikeout by letting the ball travel deeper in the zone before pulling the trigger.
Like just about everything else in baseball, there’s yin-yang aspect to this. Play deeper, and you’ll take away some extra-base hits, but you also will give up more flare singles in front of the outfield. Playing deeper also will reduce the chances of an outfield assist. The Royals and their fans will get a chance to see how this new philosophy works out between now and Oct 4.
The infield grass
I asked groundskeeper Trevor Vance about the grass thinning as the season went along, and he told me they cut the grass at Kauffman Stadium every day. At the beginning of the season, the infield and outfield grass is cut to a length of one inch. To counteract the thinning of the grass that happens as the weather heats up, the infield grass is now being cut to the length of one and a quarter inches, but the outfield grass is still an inch high.
Royals Rusty Kuntz on outfield positioning late in the season
Kansas City Royals coach Rusty Kuntz discusses with Lee Judge how seasonal changes constitute changes in how the team positions outfielders. 8/16/12 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Smith
Escobar
Holland
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoLee, I know I’m one of those who says “little things” don’t win games. Let me rephrase that somewhat… “little things” can win you a game here and there like tonight, but you’re not going to win as a team and play meaningful September baseball without doing the “big things” consistently right, and the Royals have not been able to do the four “big things” well - (1) get on base, (2) hit home runs, (3) keep the other team from getting on base, (4) keep the other team from hitting home runs - since about 1995.
I certainly agree that the little things can add up, but if you can’t do at least 3 of those 4 big things on a regular basis over 162 games it doesn’t matter how well you can hit the cutoff man, or move the runner over, or block a pitch. The Royals inability to do those big things is why they have averaged about 68 wins per season since the year 2000.
Brendan Woodbury
10 months agoI’m glad to see the discussion of the Royals changing their outfield positioning.
The abrupt shift in positioning with the new coach makes it clear that the Royals aren’t (yet) basing their positioning on the data from the Field F/X cameras.
And that matters because other studies have found that the Royals infield defensive positioning is costing the team runs. I hope that this willingness to consider wholesale change in the outfield will also lead to a willingness to play Hosmer farther off the line (especially if the OF are guarding against XBH anyway).
Brian Rose
10 months agoOne of the benefits to a LH 1b is more range to the right. Hoz is long but not real quick. I agree he would seem better positioned further off the line as those down the line hits are less likely.
I like guys who do little things like Getz, but certain positions demand big things. I think corner IF and OF guys have to drive in runs. Would be willing to sacrifice some defense there for production. So RF and 1B is a concern. Moose hitting some HR is nice hope is avg goes. Think esky and Getz are good and Cain seems ok though his avg is down. Remember when Zach left he said it takes 3-4 years for hitters to develop. That is why he wasn’t impressed with the youth movement at the time.
I think one of our favorite players might be traded for starting pitcher in off season…
Greg Tatro
10 months agoI would be more apt to say by not doing the little things right that would increase your odds of losing games…but you need to consistently do the big things to win ball games.
It’s still a good game for a player if he bashes a 3 run HR yet gives up a run because of a mental mistake on defense.
William Wolfe
10 months agoI think it’s pretty clear that Lee is over generalizing “stat guys” with his comments that people think little things don’t matter. I appreciate the comment that followed that people can believe what they want, but anyone who cares enough about baseball to get all stats nerdy knows little things matter. They just may not matter as much as having the big things in place over the long haul, as others have commented. Grit only gets you so far.
Jay Hall
10 months agoI think Greg is on to something.
Big things (hitting HRs, getting on base, striking people out, not surrendering walks, not surrendering HRs) will win you ball games.
Not doing little things (hitting the cut off man, missing signs, proper positioning, etc.) can cost you ballgames. Professional teams have enough talent to make little things neutral and make the game dependent on making plays rather than simply executing fundamentals. Bad fundamentals will get you beat, but good fundamentals only keeps you in the game, it won’t win it for you.
My vote for the AB of the year is still Billy Butler smoking an 0-2 fastball into the left field seats to tie the game against St. Louis in the 9th. That was a professional hitter doing what a professional hitter should do - adjusting and crushing a non mistake pitch to help his team. Getz’s AB last night was a professional AB as well, and definitely deserves mention in the strong ABs this year. Getz has played his way into being an average 2B this year and could probably be considered a solid choice going forward, provided that he can stay healthy for more than six weeks at a time.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months ago“I think it’s pretty clear that Lee is over generalizing “stat guys” with his comments that people think little things don’t matter.”
Don’t think Lee mentioned stat guys at all. Lots of real baseball folks never cared for Billy-ball and thought Earl Weaver-ball was the only way, pitch a shutout and wait for the 3-run homer.
From what I see of fantasy guys, they tend to think that if there’s not a stat for something it doesn’t exist.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoThat’s an interesting comment, Jim. Do you think there are things that exist in baseball for which there are no stats, and not possible to create a stat?
For example, I could create a stat called “Cutoff Completion Percentage” and track how often outfielders properly hit the cutoff man. But are there events in a baseball game that are not quantifiable?
Jim Wilson
10 months agoJF, I’m a “stat” guy but I’ve never played fantasy baseball. Nice job of responding to a comment about over generalizing with an over generalization. Of course that is one of your favorite tactics.
Terry Payne
10 months agoWil Smith is, I believe, the real deal - a major league pitcher with an idea of how to pitch. How refreshing.
Re: Getz - see my post yesterday. ‘nuff said.
I have always maintained that Esky is the true Royals MVP. Go ahead, argue with me, seamheads.
Daniel - you can analyze all you like, but the great teams of all times have always done the little things well. Advance runners, keep baserunners close, etc. I would recomment to you a book: “Men at Work” by George Will, which takes a very up close work at the game from three different aspects: the manager, the pitcher, the everyday player. Fascinating. Completely changed the way I looked at the game. i.e. - little things matter more than you think. It’s a battle out there, not in your bedroom.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoSorry, Terry. The “big things” is what wins pennants. Always has, always will.
Name me one championship caliber team that didn’t consistently perform at least 3 of the 4 big things I listed earlier.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoFor example, take our 1985 Royals. They were terrible at getting on base, but they hit enough home runs to support a pitching staff that was phenomenal at preventing the other team from getting on base and hitting home runs. That’s 3 of 4.
William Wolfe
10 months agoWow, I really love how “old schoolers” refuse to accept there could even be a tiny amount of truth in statistical analysis. Every single stat guy type here has stated that little things can have impacts, no one has denied that! Jeff Francoeur doing little things doesn’t change that he freaking sucks at hitting and pretty much always has. Stacking our roster with Yuni, Frenchy, and Getz was a move that was motivated by chemistry, and I would be very happy had it worked. It didn’t. It doesn’t mean there’s no value in chemistry or doing the little things, but you can’t avoid the fact that you have to score and prevent runs to win, and getting on base and slugging and preventing the other team from doing those things is how you do it. Stats are not evil, they are our friend!
Lee Judge
10 months agoI’d like to think we could all agree that the big things and the little things are both important. Both help you win games.
This web site tends to dwell on the little stuff. If a guy hits a game-winning homer, he’ll be surrounded by a dozen reporters after the game. They guy who broke up a double play so the home run hitter had his chance, won’t get as much attention.
That’s part of what I’m trying to do: find those small moments in a game that made a difference and might go unnoticed if someone doesn’t point them out.
And, Jay, you’re right, Billy’s home run in St. Louis has to be on the list of best at-bats of the year.
Terry Payne
10 months agoLee, keep on doin’ what you’re doin’:
It’s easy for young seamheds (Which i once was, myself) to analyze baseball.
It’s a far different thing to be facing a 95 mph fastball, aimed as likely for your nose as not.
It’s a far different thing to be facing a 95 mph fastball turned around, aimed at your nuts, as a fielder. Personally, I took a bad hop off my smelter, then retreated to the comfort of the outfield.
Thinking I was safe out there, I realized how lonely you can get: You can’t blame bat hops out there! You ARE the man. You are THE guy, expected to be the last bastion of defense. In reality, there’s only you, a vast expanse of green, and a fence. Good luck!
The reason I love baseball so much is that it is a game that can be analyzed, from the comfort of one’s bedroom, until one has to actually play it. That, is was separates the men from the boys, IMHO.
William Wolfe
10 months agoI guess since I have a wheelchair I can’t analyze baseball appropriately then. Good lord.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoLee, I can get behind that. I can remember George Brett thanking U.L. Washington for his hustle beating out an infield single before Brett came to bat and hit that infamous home run in the 1980 ALCS.
Jay Hall
10 months agoThe Getz AB
Pitch 1 - fastball, probably one of the more hittable pitches of the at-bat. Strike 1 looking.
Pitch 2 - another fastball, sneaking in on Getz’s hands. Looked like the same location, but with more movement. Fouled off. 0-2
Pitch 3 - another fastball, this one slipping back over the plate. Fouled off again. 0-2
Pitch 4 - fastball high and away. Good take. 1-2
Pitch 5 - fastball high and away again, but on the corner. Fouled off. 1-2.
Pitch 6 - curveball low and away. Getz was out front on this one and did a great job fighting it off. 1-2.
Pitch 7 - fastball away. 2-2
Pitch 8 - fastball in. Getz fights it off again. 2-2.
Pitch 9 - fastball low and away. Another foul. 2-2.
Pitch 10 - fastball low and well away. 3-2.
Pitch 11 - fastball over the plate away, Getz extends his arms for the double down the line.
I don’t know if Doolittle just wasn’t feeling his curve, but the worst swing Getz took on the AB was on the 79 mph curve on pitch 6. Perhaps he didn’t feel like he had the control because he went back to fastballs the rest of the AB and Getz timed them out and finally got one that didn’t run as far away.
If you want to point to a little thing in this AB, it’s probably fouling off the only offspeed pitch in the entire AB. However, this AB is not great because Getz fouled off a 79 mph curve. It’s great because he doubled on a 95 mph fastball. All those foul balls don’t mean anything if Getz ultimately chops a fastball to the second baseman to end the inning. The big thing (double) is what made the little things (battling through the AB) matter.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoTerry, I played some college baseball and was halfway decent. Am I thus qualified then to keep analyzing?
Jim Fetterolf
10 months ago” Of course that is one of your favorite tactics.”
I think it appropriate.
“Do you think there are things that exist in baseball for which there are no stats, and not possible to create a stat?”
No, just think that stats have yet to catch up to the real game as seen by experienced observers. Recently read “Casino” about Frank Rosenthal, a stat guy long before anyone had heard of Bill James. What was interesting, covered in the first chapter or two, was how much further advanced his analysis was in the ‘50s beyond what the computers spit out now, simply because he incorporated “news” into his projections, what some now call “inflection points”.
Stats are getting better and the fantasy folks are maturing, reaching the point where offensive production isn’t everything for a player and where defensive evaluation is evolving beyond a grid on a diamond. A lot of that results from technology getting closer to seeing what the eye sees and programs getting closer to the brain’s ability to store and process information in real time, WPA a good example.
In general, I would note that the disagreement between small ball and big ball goes back at least to Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth and ultimately is a matter of what works for the people a team has. A couple of years down the road when the Royals have five or six guys who hit over 20 homers and some of the young arms reach their potential, we could look like an Earl Weaver team. At the moment, with Hosmer, Moose, Frenchy, Salvy, and Cain slumping, the “professional at-bat”, the ability to waste pitches, and the “outstanding defensive play” will be components of the Royals’ wins.
Mike Engel
10 months agoHow much baseball did George Will play to gain the legitimacy to properly write “Men at Work” and analyze baseball?
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoJim, I think the ‘Whiteyball’ vs ‘Weaverball’ debate is a bit of a misnomer. The only significant difference between those two philosophies was (2). Whitey’s and Earl’s successful teams had a lot in common because they both did “big things” (1), (3), and (4) well. Whitey took advantage of the era of playing on carpet and was able to successfully replace power with an emphasis on speed - not as easily done today.
As far as “experienced observers” my problem with that is that humans are biased. Our eyes can lie to us. Our pre-conceived notions and subjective preferences color what we see. Advanced analysis works to eliminate a lot of that subjectivity and replace it with objectivity. To paraphrase Moneyball, what jean size a player wears isn’t terribly important if that player can get on base 40% of the time. In the same vein, while I enjoy watching Chris Getz play, his ability to do ‘little things’ won’t be enough to help the team win if he can’t slug more than .287 in a full season.
Terry Payne
10 months agoMike E - George Will had the guts to admit that he didn’t have the skills to play the game, but he did have the skills to ask the question: What would it be like to PLAY the game, for real?
Matt Nelson
10 months agoDan, your stated goals are very generalized. I could make those same statements about any sport, Football, socre points and dont let them score will lead you to a lot of wins. Duh. Basketball, see above. Hockey, see above. Soccer, see above. NASCAR, drive faster than the other guys, but save as much gas as possible.
Every sport can be generalized to essential points that if your good at them you will win. But, to be good at those essential points you must be good at the little things. Like having a good O-Line in football with good technique. Or maybe ball possession time, which would boil down to making good passes and not making mental errors, i.e. the “little things”
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoMatt, you’re missing the point. How do baseball teams best score runs? By having high OBP and high SLG%. How do they best prevent the other teams from scoring runs? By not walking batters and not giving up home runs. Those are the “big things”.
“But, to be good at those essential points you must be good at the little things.”
False. Being good at a ‘little thing’ like hitting the cutoff man has zero bearing on how well you do ‘big things’ like not walking batters and not giving up home runs. You’re arguing for correlation where there is none.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoLet me put it this way, so far in the 2012 AL rankings:
The Royals are 9th in team OBP. We’re 8th in team SLG. We’re dead last in hitting home runs. Put those together and we’re 11th in runs scored.
The Royals have walked the 3rd most batters. We’ve allowed the 12th most HRs. (Hey, that’s good!) We’ve allowed the 6th most runs scored.
Put all of that together and we’re fighting the Twins for the worst record in the American League. Are we in this position because we can’t execute the little things? No. We’re in this position because we can’t execute the big things.
Terry Payne
10 months agoDaniel - put your laptop down and step slowly away
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoTerry, do you have a rebuttal?
Lee Judge
10 months agoI’m out here at the stadium and they’ve posted the lineup for tonight:
Just in case you want something new to argue about.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoThanks, Lee. :) Twitter is already furious at Ned… lol
Jeff Circle
10 months agoWas I the only one who could actually HEAR Lee say “Just in case you want something new to argue about”?
But I guess the good news is Frenchy and Hos are about as far down in the lineup as they can go. I’m a silver-lining kind of guy!
Matt Nelson
10 months agoOk so what your saying is the royals are stuck with below average players, but you need above average players to win in a professional league? I guess what I was trying to point out is that you are stating the obvious, but I must have diluted the answer. What I was also trying to say was that you take the “ok” players and they do the little things right, then they are a “good” player, the Royals, no matter how hard you look do not have great players, they have a few good players with a boat load of ok players, so for the Royals, yes it is important to do the little things.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoMatt, how meaningful and important are the little things when your record is 51-64?
My point is that we’re 51-64 because we can’t do the big things. If we were better at the big things and our record was something like 59-56 then the little things would be much more important.
However, my point remains that the big things come first. If you’re not good at the big things it doesn’t matter how good you are at the little things.
Daniel Wesley
10 months agoOops, I mean 51-65.
Gaines Arnold
10 months agoJust wanted to say that as far as I am concerned Daniel, Brett’s homerun was famous not infamous (unless,of course, you are a Yankees fan).
Tonight’s lineup is a little scary mainly because Yost is taking Gordon out of the top spot. I know managers love having speed in that spot (reference the little things discussion), but Gordon offers a lot more than Dyson there. Hopefully, this is a one night aberration while Yost apparently punishes Cain.
Josh Cooper
10 months agoApparently Yost wants Gordon in the 3-spot because that’s where he’ll be in the future. It’s the exact same reasoning Yost put Hosmer back at 3 even when he was slumping a month or two ago. So, Yost, we can’t have two #3 hitters in the future. Are you confused again? Did you forget to take your meds?
Terry Payne
10 months agoDaniel - the Royals win in ‘85 is one of the most ridiculous wins of all time, IMHO. They had no business winning their division let alone going all the way in the playoffs.
But that is the beauty of baseball, it’s freakiness, and the ultimate reason why I love this game so much!!!
Thayne Griffin
10 months agoGordon in the 3 hole. Smh Ned, smh.
I would also like to point out in the first inning, Gordon went hard to break up a DP, while Esky also ran out a usual GIDP and reached base. And then scored. So it wasn’t just the stolen base. Other little things that helped as well. And I would say little things usually enable big things to happen, but don’t necessary lead to them.
Also, as of late (about last 5 turns) I would have to say Mendoza, Smith, and Guthrie have been our best 3 pitchers. Who would have thought?!
Jeff Frost
10 months agoI like him in the three hole. Let’s face it. Gordo is a legit number three hitter. He wants to be there, and with Hos not hitting this year, he is the man that should be! He is the #3 hitter of the future. Let him stay there the rest of the year. The same people complaining about this didn’t like moving Esky up from 9 to 2. After a slow start, that has worked out pretty well! Gordon is a professional hitter and will do well!
Brendan Woodbury
10 months ago“The same people complaining about this didn’t like moving Esky up from 9 to 2.”
Pure fantasy.
The same people complaining about this were the ones asking why Ned wouldn’t move Escobar up in the order. Ned said that players need defined roles and it’s too disruptive to move them around and a bunch of other nonsense.
But it’s not just that Yost is inconsistent. The number one hitter gets about forty more plate appearances a year than the number three hitter. If it sticks, this move costs Gordon 40 plate appearances in 2013. It’s hard to see how that makes us a better team.