Games » Baltimore Orioles
Aug12The insurance run
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
The game got away for good in the bottom of the eighth. Royals reliever Francisley Bueno walked left-handed hitter Nate McLouth to start the inning. Left-handed relievers exist to throw strikes to left-handed batters. Bueno didn’t do this, and the Orioles had their lead-off man on base. The Orioles were only up by one run with three outs to go — tacking on an insurance run would be huge.
The next batter, Adam Jones, hit a long chip shot behind second base. Chris Getz went back but had a tough angle. Luckily, Jeff Francoeur arrived in time to catch the ball, so Chris peeled off to give Jeff room.
Unluckily, Francoeur appeared to be staring into the sun, and the ball dropped in. Now the Orioles had two on and no one out. If Francoeur had caught the ball, the Orioles would have had one down and a runner on first — they would not have been able to sacrifice bunt the insurance run into scoring position.
Because the ball dropped, the Orioles had two on and nobody out and could then afford to give up an out to move the runners. That’s just what they did: sac bunt, runners moved up to second and third with one down. A runner on third with less than two outs forced the Royals to bring their infield in.
The batter was Mark Reynolds, and Aaron Crow was now pitching. Crow has a terrific slider, and he threw one past catcher Brayan Pena. McLouth scored on the passed ball, and the Orioles had their insurance run.
And the insurance run allowed closer Jim Johnson to be as aggressive as he liked. None of the Royals’ hitters who came to the plate in the ninth represented the tying run. Three walks scored in this game, and the Royals lost 5-3, so it’s pretty easy to see how much those walks hurt.
The Royals finished up the road trip 4-3 and start a series Tuesday against the Oakland A’s.
Game notes
• Alex Gordon started the game with a single, and once again Alcides Escobar tried to bunt for a hit. It went into the scorebook as sacrifice, but after the game, manager Ned Yost said Escobar was bunting on his own. The bunt was laid down to the right side, which is not ideal with a right-handed pitcher on the mound. A righty falls to the right side when he finishes his motion.
• Earlier in the series, Escobar shot a single past Manny Machado at third base when Machado came in on the grass. If he was playing in again (TV didn’t show Machado’s positioning), that would explain why Esky pushed his bunt to the right.
• In the fourth inning, Orioles pitcher Tommy Hunter tried to go up and in on Mike Moustakas. Hunter was aiming for the hole most left-handers have in their swings, but he slightly missed his spot and Moose homered. Apparently, 93 mph wasn’t enough to get it past Moustakas.
• Also in the fourth, Lorenzo Cain hit a fly ball to right and apparently thought he homered. Lorenzo didn’t exactly sprint out of the box. Assuming you’ve homered and not running hard — which was how Adam Jones got thrown out by Alex Gordon earlier in the series — is bad habit that will eventually come back on a player.
• One of the theories about bench players is that they don’t have to do anything to help you, but they can’t hurt you. Brayan Pena — who was catching Bruce Chen, giving Salvador Perez a day off — hit a sacrifice fly to score Billy Butler and later in the game reached over a railing to make a difficult catch on a pop fly. But he also had that passed ball in the ninth.
• Butler would not have been on third to be driven in by Pena if Eric Hosmer hadn’t turned an 0-2 count into a walk earlier in the inning. Hosmer’s walk moved Francoeur to second and Butler to third.
• When Billy tagged up and headed for home, the throw from Baltimore left fielder Lew Ford went over the cutoff man. Francoeur had the presence of mind to go back, tag second and advance to third on the airmailed throw.
• Hunter threw 36 pitches in the fourth inning. One 30-pitch inning is much more tiring than two 15-pitch innings, so it’s not just total pitch count that matters. Having a long, difficult inning early in a game usually takes a toll later.
• Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar executed a perfect hit-and-run in the top of the fifth. Fans can tell a hit-and-run from a straight steal by watching the runner. If it’s a straight steal, the runner will keep his head down and focus on second base. If it’s a hit-and-run, the runner will take a few strides and then look in to find the ball. It’s lucky that Gordon was looking in because he had to pause to avoid getting drilled by the ball Esky hit to right field.
• The long fourth inning took its toll, and Tommy Hunter was out of the game after the fifth.
• Chen got one out in the sixth and then walked two batters. The score was 3-3. The go-ahead run was in scoring position. Bruce had thrown 95 pitches, and the Orioles were sending four right-handed hitters to the plate before Chen would see another lefty, so Yost went to the pen and brought in Louis Coleman.
• Coleman could not get on the same page with Brayan Pena. That’s because there was a runner on second and Pena was switching to a different set of signs.
• At the major-league level, when a catcher looks into the dugout for a sign, it rarely is because the manager is calling pitches. Someone in the dugout is usually studying the opposing runner’s tendencies and calling the running game (pitchouts, pickoffs and slide steps) from the side. That allows the catcher to focus on calling the pitches and that allows the pitcher — if he trusts his catcher — to focus on executing pitches.
The hit-and-run
“Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe. He may solve the very secret of eternity itself. But for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of the hit-and-run.”—Branch Rickey
Branch would have loved the hit-and-run that the Royals pulled off in the fifth inning. Here are some of the rules of thumb for using the hit-and-run.
Don’t do it with two outs. You’re asking the hitter to swing at anything the pitcher throws in the general direction of the plate. Don’t make the third out of the inning on a weak grounder.
For the same reason, don’t do it with two strikes. Don’t force the hitter to swing at a marginal pitch.
Don’t do it with three balls. Don’t force the hitter to swing at ball four.
Don’t do it with a runner who can steal the base without protection from the hitter.
Don’t do it with someone who strikes out a lot. It’s the perfect strike ’em out, throw ‘em out double play scenario for the defense.
Use the hit-and-run when your team is tied, down by one or ahead. Otherwise, possibly giving up an out to advance a runner into scoring position may not be worth it.
Use the hit-and-run when the man at the plate has good bat control. He needs to hit a grounder if possible.
Use the hit-and-run when you believe the hitter will get a fastball. If he doesn’t, at least your runner is in motion on a breaking pitch, and that will make throwing him out a bit more difficult.
Use the hit-and-run when you want to stay out of the double play.
(I once asked if Billy Butler was a hit-and-run candidate since he certainly is a double-play candidate. I was told the Royals didn’t want to force Billy to swing at a pitch he didn’t like. They want him to pick a pitch he feels he can drive somewhere.)
Moustakas
Pena
Francoeur
Terry Payne
10 months, 1 week agoI’m surprised the Royals don’t hit and run more often, since they have minimal power, and have had difficulty this season scoring runs. Is it a change in philosophy?
I don’t have a problem with Esky trying to bunt his way on, but I sure wish he didn’t have to start from the far side of the batter’s box. (If he’d been dragging from the lefty side, he would have beaten that one today.) I’m sure that Esky is smart enough to read the defense and know his chances, and am assuming he feels he can reach first, provided he makes a quality bunt. The way I look at it, it still gives the team a chance to score a first inning run, always psychologically important.
All in all, I think Esky is adept enough with the bat that my first choice would be a hit and run, rather than bunt.
Lee Judge
10 months, 1 week agoTerry: I’ve never talked to Ned about the hit and run, so I don’t know when he likes to use it. Next time I get some time with him I’ll ask.
A lot of things have to line up for the hit and run to be used: the right hitter, the right runner, the right pitcher (a guy who’s around the plate most of the time) and the right count.
The Royals picked a good pitch for the hit and run and Esky showed some bat control by hitting the ball through the vacated right side.
Charles Purvis
10 months, 1 week agoWhy would a left hander have a hole in their swing ‘up and in’ and a right hander not?
Terry Payne
10 months, 1 week agoCharles, I’m not exactly sure why, but lefties are traditionally more lowball hitters and righties prefer balls higher in the strikezone. MOST lefties therefore prefer the ball down and it, while MOST righties prefer to get the ball out over the plate and higher in the zone.
Darral VanGoethem
10 months, 1 week agoI am beginning to be convinced that Escobar is bunting in the 1st inning with Gordo on 1st, a trend that is becomingly alarmingly easy to predict, so that he can “pad his stats”. Seems silly but other than Ned calling for the bunt(he says he isn’t), what other explanation is there? Think about it, if he gets the bunt down for a single it is a hit and raises his avg. If he doesn’t get it down but advances Gordon(very likely), he gets a sac bunt, which I am sure you all know does not count as an AB so his avg stays where it is at.
Thayne Griffin
10 months, 1 week agoI agree Darral..unless our strategy is to go for 1 run if Gordon gets on base in the 1st inning..(I hope it’s not).
Lee Judge
10 months, 1 week agoI don’t know if there’s a short explanation for the tendency of lefthanders to prefer the ball down, but here goes:
Every swing has weight shift (back to front) and rotation (circular motion). Right-handed hitters see a lot of right-handed pitchers. When a right-handed pitcher throws the ball to a right-handed hitter, the release point is pretty much in line with the hitter’s head.
The speed and trajectory of an object is hardest to judge when the object is coming directly at you. So the right-handed hitter needs to be short and quick once he deciphers what the ball is doing. Righthanders tend to emphasize rotation.
Lefthanded hitters have the luxury of mainly facing right-handed pitchers. They get a better look at the ball because of the angle and release point. They don’t have to be as quick because they have an easier time deciphering what the pitch is doing, so these hitters often emphasize weight shift.
But the motion from back to front tends to make the bat head drop (like a golf swing) so they have an easier time with balls down. If a pitcher can get the ball in on their hands, lefties don’t always have that quick, tight rotation swing necessary to fight the ball off.
Let me know if cleared things up or caused more confusion.
Terry Payne
10 months, 1 week agoThanks, Mr. Science :) That’s the best explanation I’ve ever received. Where are you on your doctoral thesis? Can you help me with my golf swing?
Luke Healy
10 months, 1 week agoWouldn’t a hit and run with three balls be ok because if he didn’t swing at ball 4 it would just be a free pass to second?
Also shouldn’t the manager take responsibility for a hitter who continues to bunt in early innings? How much of that is just left up to the hitter before the manager says something. Escobar is in the two spot because he is hitting the ball well, not to give up outs early in the ballgame. Shouldn’t the manager have more of a say in that? Or does it just depend on the manager? Bunting is a pretty controversial strategy and it just seems that the manager should take the responsibility there.
Terry Payne
10 months, 1 week agoMy understanding is that certain hitters have different leeway or freedoms unless they are given a specific sign for a specific action that the mgr wants. Perhaps Esky was one of those players. I really believe he thinks that it is a good play to bunt in certain situations, in other words, his intention is to get on base by pushing it past the pitcher, not “give up an out.” He’d probably at the very least be better off by improving his bunting skills.
I rememer the rule of thumb: play to win on the road, and play for the tie at home, because you always have the last at bat. Perhaps it’s not wise to bunt in the 1st inning and play for the single run on the road. I still say you try to get the 1st run of the game anyway you can.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 1 week agoLee, nice explanation on lefties.
Daniel Wesley
10 months, 1 week agoIs it just me or has everyone been ignoring the elephant in the room… which is that on August 13th Eric Hosmer is hitting an anemic .228/.299/.353 and has seriously regressed offensively as the season has worn on.
Early in the year he was hitting the ball hard but right at people. Now he just isn’t hitting the ball hard at all. It’s got me worried.
Yet, I haven’t read anything here, or from Dutton, or from anyone in the organization about a change in approach. Is the plan to just keep doing the same thing and hope he figures something out? It’s getting to be too late to even consider a demotion.
John Kessler
10 months, 1 week agoDaniel, while it isn’t idea that Hosmer is struggling, it isn’t that unheard of with young players as they adjust to the major leagues, just take a look over in Washington at Bryce Harper, he is having the same struggle, and look at over the years players like Beltran, Escobar, Gordon, etc struggling, give him time.
Terry Payne
10 months, 1 week agoThe team is still managing to win some games lately, even without Hos’ bat, mainly b/c the starting pitching has been, with exception of Hoch, much more effective. Also, other bats are being heard from, especially with some pop.
Remember, Mous struggled mightily last year also, before making the necessary adjustments. I think Hos needs to keep battling the rest of the year, then use the offseason as a mental break. Either retool the swing, or get help from a sports psychologist to improve his mental approach.
If it makes anyone feel any better, Harper has been struggling even worse than Hosmer lately.
Lee Judge
10 months, 1 week agoI can’t take credit for the explanation on left-handed hitters, I read it somewhere and it made sense. I think it was Mike Schmidt’s book on hitting. So Terry, if you need help with your golf swing, get in touch with Mike.
Luke: What you’re describing (a hit and run with three balls) is more like a run and hit. On a hit and run they’re generally sending a guy who can’t steal the base on his own, the batter swings to protect him.
On a run and hit the runner is stealing the base and the batter has the option of swinging. If a right-handed batter gets a low and away fastball he can hit a 42-hopper to the right side and pick up an easy hit if the second baseman covers second.
They also often put the runner in motion on 3-2 to stay out of double plays. It all depends on what you think of the hitter’s bat control and ability to make contact.
Using the hit and run with three balls also requires faith in the hitter’s eye and faith in the umpire to make the right call.
I was just talking to a couple of ex-pros who said they loved the hit and run because it simplified things: they knew they were swinging no matter what.
Lee Judge
10 months, 1 week agoPart II: The Royals give a surprising amount of leeway to their players. College ball is much more controlled. If I were a college coach, I probably wouldn’t want to leave my fate up to a 19 year-old either.
Most of the Royals base runners have the green light. When I asked about that I was told they wanted them to develop as ballplayers. They wanted them thinking about the pitcher’s move, the surface, their ability to get a jump—in short, they wanted them to stay in the game mentally.
The Royals believe the player out on the field had the best idea of whether he could steal a base.
I think the same goes with bunting for a hit. Escobar leads the team in bunting for a hit and they want him thinking about when that’s possible. Thick grass, third playing back, a pitcher that falls off to one side or another is ideal, but the bench doesn’t know how well the hitter is seeing the ball or if he’s comfortable laying one down.
Bunting for hit also pays off when Esky swings away. I think it was Friday’s game and Esky saw Manny Machado was in on the grass, swung away and hit a grounder past him for a single.
So I think Ned is OK with Esky bunting if he’s bunting for a hit. If Esky is bunting because he either gets a hit or a sacrifice and neither hurts his average, that’s another story.
When I get a chance, I’ll ask Ned how important he thinks it is to score first. Playing for one early might make sense if you thought it was going to be a low-scoring game. Playing for one early makes less sense in Camden Yards and two pitcher with ERAs over 5.00.
Lee Judge
10 months, 1 week agoDaniel: You might have to go back to old posts to find it, but there’s been plenty of talk about Hosmer here on the site.
Yost believes Eric needs to be here to make the adjusments he needs to make. The pitching in Triple A won’t challenge him (he hit well over .400 when he was there last) and he needs to face major-league pitching.
Ned has a history of sticking with young players who struggle as long as he believes they have the talent to succeed. He did it with J.J. Hardy and Prince Fielder in Milwaukee and Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas here.
Everybody I’ve talked to still believes Hosmer has a ton of talent and will eventually figure it out.
Jim Wilson
10 months, 1 week agoOther than some occasional power, Moustakas is in the middle of a mediocre offensive season (ranking in the upper part of the bottom half of 3B). He had a terrible July and is off to a dismal “start” to August. Hosmer’s and Moustakas’s career numbers are almost identical (with Hosmer’s being slightly better). So I think it’s a little early to cite Moose as evidence of the success of patience vis-a-vis Hosmer. I’m not saying it’s not the right answer, just that Moose is not great evidence of it. And I’m not getting down on Moose — he’s a very good defensive 3B and I have high hopes for him on offense.
Chris Campbell
10 months, 1 week agoLee,
I don’t have any objections to keeping Hosmer at the MLB level to work his issues out. However, I DO have an issue with insisting that he do it while batting 3rd in the lineup. Yost has FINALLY moved him down in the order, but it took far longer than it should have, as least IMO.
Then again, I also question Yost’s decision to sac bunt early in games. I can’t think of ANY scenario where sac bunting in the FIRST inning makes any sense period. It certainly didn’t make sense when runs were being scored in every ball game in the series, Baltimore’s starter might have been struggling with his control, and the Royals starting rotations is….well, the Royals starting rotation. In other words, If Yost called for a sac bunt in the first inning, he’s a complete moron, and should be fired IMMEDIATELY. I say that with the understanding that the players and manager know FAR more about baseball than I do. I’m sorry, there IS no defense for sac bunting in that situation. NONE.
Brian Rose
10 months, 1 week agoLee,
the note about players having the green light is interesting. I once heard the difference from the best, and the best of the best is focus. The athlete who can maintain a high degree of focus through out the competition has a decided advantage. Granted at this level they all focus but some let their physical abilities take over, maybe too much ie Frenchy trying to steal… makes me wonder if the young royals players are being asked to think too much, or maybe just expected to learn the game faster. Good point none the less. Thanks!
Luke Healy
10 months, 1 week agothanks lee. appreciate the feedback.
Lee Judge
10 months, 1 week agoLuke: No problem. This web site, at it’s best, is a collection of people trying to understand the finer points of the game. When that’s happening, I really enjoy the conversation.
Brian: I’ve heard the Rangers aqnd Pirates went through the same thing: they turned young players loose and expected them to learn from their mistakes.
It can be frustrating when you see some fundamental thing screwed up, but the theory is that those mistakes make for better ballplayers down the road.
How far down the road is open to question. But when I remember how young some of these guys are, I’m impressed by the maturity they’ve shown in a season that hasn’t gone as well as expected.
I know if you gave me a pile of money and made me famous at 21, I probably wouldn’t have made it to 22.
Thayne Griffin
10 months, 1 week agoJust a question for anyone…So there is OPS+ that pretty much creates how good a hitter is compared to the whole league, there isn’t such a statistic for the defensive side is there?
And if there was, with available statistics, wouldn’t it just be something like defensive WAR+? It would be calculated the same way as OPS+, just with defensive WAR.
Then we could use this defensive WAR+ and OPS+ to see how a player is at the plate and on defense. 200 = average, 200+ is above average, and 200- is below average. Would this work?
Daniel Wesley
10 months, 1 week agoThayne, both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference versions of WAR (fWAR vs bWAR) come with defensive measurements baked in.
If you go to baseball-reference.com and look at any player’s stat page, it will show you the defensive part of the WAR calculation in a separate column labeled ‘dWAR’.
Thayne Griffin
10 months, 1 week agoI guess the point was to create a “league measure” that shows how a player is against the average like OPS+; apparently such a thing doesn’t yet exist (in non-team circles at least)?
Terry Payne
10 months, 1 week agoChris C - I don’t totally agree with your opposition of going for 1 run early in a game, but FYI - This was NOT Nate’s call this time. Esky bunted on his own and was trying for a hit.