Games » Baltimore Orioles
Aug10Why pitching's like real estate
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
Pitched balls have three qualities: velocity, movement and location. Ask which of the three is most important and most pitchers will tell you it’s location. Location, location, location — just like real estate. After the game Ned Yost said that Luke Hochevar struggled to locate his secondary pitches and the Royals paid the price.
After Thursday’s win Ned Yost said the Royals have the pitching they need, they just need the pitching to be more consistent. Hochevar threw five and a third innings, hit two batters, gave up two walks, three home runs and seven earned runs. This pitching performance was not what the Royals need.
Game notes
Miguel Gonzales throws a split-change, which is a changeup thrown by splitting the fingers further apart. Change ups should be thrown with the same arm-speed as a fastball, but with a less efficient grip. Burying the ball back in the hand or splitting the first two fingers will allow the pitcher to throw with the same motion, but takes something off the ball.
In the first inning, Gonzalez threw the split-change to Mike Moustakas in a 2-1 count. This was meaningful because 2-1 is usually a fastball count. Throwing something off-speed in a fastball count means hitters can’t count on getting a fastball when they expect it. Guys who can throw off-speed in fastball counts are a step above the guys who can’t.
J.J. Hardy popped up on the infield and both Chris Getz and Eric Hosmer called for the ball. They bumped in to each other, but Hosmer held on. Getz actually had priority. Pop fly priority goes this way: guys coming in have priority over guys going back. Guys in the middle have priority over guys on the corners. The centerfielder can call off anybody, any outfielder can call off any infielder, short and second can call off first and third, short can call off second and any infielder can call off the catcher.
I didn’t mention the pitcher because at this level of baseball, they want the pitchers — who aren’t on the field as much — to just get out of the way.
Billy Butler got a 2-1 fastball in his first at-bat and took it for a strike. I’ve got no idea what Billy was thinking, but the 2-1 change to Moose might make a hitter less sure he’s getting something hard when he expects it.
In an 0-2 count, Hochevar was trying to pitch to that up-and-in hole many lefties have in swing. Luke missed his spot and Wilson doubled.
In the third inning Hochevar hit Adam Jones with a pitch, a 77-mph curve. The fans booed, but ballplayers know if they get hit intentionally, it will be by a fastball about 20 mph faster. If the pitcher is sending a message, he wants it to hurt.
One of the ways players get back at a pitcher who hits them is by stealing a base soon after they get drilled. The idea is to make the hit by pitch hurt the pitcher as well. When Hochevar lifts his knee all the way up it takes a while to get the ball to home plate. Unfortunately for Adam Jones, he tried to steal when Hochevar “quick stepped.” (It’s somewhere between a slide step and lifting the knee all the way.) That got the ball to Salvador Perez faster and Sal threw out Jones.
As I’ve mentioned before, Brayan Pena sometimes gets his hand slightly on the side of the ball when throwing to the bases and that makes the ball tail to the right side. Perez keeps his fingers on top of the ball and that makes his throws straight.
Last season, Perez was so quick on his throws he bumped into the home plate umpire on more than one occasion. Apparently, word went out that Perez was really quick for a big guy and umpires needed to stay out of his way and make sure they didn’t interfere with his throws.
The 6th inning made sure the Royals weren’t coming back, and Hochevar doubled the damage by walking Matt Weiters and hitting Wilson Betemit. It’s bad to hang a curve, it’s worse to do it after giving the opposition a couple of free runners.
In the 7th, Jeff Francoeur doubled, but only after Nick Markakis missed a foul pop up. Markakis was approaching the wall running down the left field line and missed the catch. Some guys get distracted when approaching the wall, which is why we should appreciate Alex Gordon slamming into Kauffman’s wall hard enough to leave a sweaty outline in the padding.
Frenchy doubled to the right center, a good sign since he’s been working on getting a pitch out over the plate. Jeff then made a base-running mistake, trying to get to third with one down. That can be the right thing to do if the score were closer, but in this case, down by six in the seventh, it’s a mental mistake.
Move him over/drive him in
(This situation has come a couple times recently and it’s worth knowing that there are a couple ways of approaching it.)
Runner on second, no outs, one run matters: baseball fundamentals say the man at the plate should try to hit the ball to the right side of the infield and move the runner over to third base. That means the runner will be able to score without benefit of a hit and the opposition may have to bring their infield in an attempt to cut the run down at the plate.
But there are times the third base coach will signal the hitter to forget moving the runner over and instead try to drive him in. Say your six-hole hitter is much better than the two hitters that follow. Your best shot may be having the sixth hitter try to drive the run in immediately, rather than moving the runner up and leaving the RBI-job to weaker hitters. Or you’re too far down to make it worth giving up an out to move a runner 90 feet.
One of the first things you learn when hanging out with the people who play the game at this level: there are almost always exceptions to every rule.
In case you missed it
Pitching coach Dave Eiland was on Joel Goldberg’s pregame show talking about changes some of the Royals pitchers have made that might account for their recent success. Dave said Luis Mendoza has added a cutter to go along with his sinker. Having both pitches means Luis can pitch to both sides of the plate: one runs in on righties, one runs away.
(Of course, a pitcher can have too many pitches. That means they don’t throw some of them enough to command them and — as I once heard an old pitching coach say — in what situation do you want to throw your fourth-best pitch?)
Eiland has also helped Jeremy Guthrie add a slight inward turn to his delivery. It keeps the ball hidden longer and helps Guthrie get his weight back, but inward turns can make a pitcher slow to the plate. Guthrie seems to use the same quick step I described earlier, so it may not be a problem.
Still, it’s always good to remember there’s an up and downside to every adjustment: more pitches may affect command of the ball, inward turns might make you slow to the plate. Every adjustment has its price, so there are no simple answers.
Perez
Dyson
Coleman
Daniel Wesley
10 months, 1 week agoAs much as I grumble and complain at times, I do believe the Royals are moving in the right direction as an organization. Slower than they should be, but positive steps are positive steps.
Having said that, I firmly believe that when the Royals finally get over that hump, Luke Hochevar will not be on the roster. It’s incredibly difficult and nigh impossible for a player in his late 20s to suddenly become a good player after not being good up to that point.
Luke’s career numbers after 700+ innings are a 5.25 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. He is what he is, and that’s a backend starter on a team in last place. We’ve got plenty of candidates to replace him in the short term and long term that have upside and are dramatically cheaper.
Scott Harrison
10 months, 1 week agoI try be supportive of the team, and not overly critical. But when our manager says we have the pitching we need, that bewilders me. And it makes me wonder if we really are moving in the right direction, if that’s what our front office believes.
Thayne Griffin
10 months, 1 week agoPerez gunning down Jones on a low 77 mph curve. Amazing. Jones is having a bad series on the base paths. Perez also homered going the other way again. Good sign of things to come for him I hope.
Would have loved to see Dyson not pull up lame on that hit, it easily was over Jones and would have been a sure double, maybe even a triple. Love seeing him on the bases. That said, if he sees the DL it COULD spell the end of Frenchy in RF, but I think it’s more likely to be pretty much anyone else after all that’s happened this year. Guess we will see.
And as pointed out, Hoch kind of ruined our momentum…
Brian Rose
10 months, 1 week agoMissed the game, frenchy got thrown out Again! I am not a stat guy but seems like the only way he touches home plate is if he hits a homer.
Josh Cooper
10 months, 1 week agoI have to agree with you, Scott. I don’t mind the manager trying to be somewhat positive, but for Yost to come out and say something like that is very frustrating for a fan.
Lee Judge
10 months, 1 week agoI think there are several ways to take what Yost said about having the pitching we need: he might really believe it, he might be taking the company line and trying to stay positive or he might be saying if the guys we have would be more consistent, we’d do OK.
Yost said it in a post-game interview and I only saw a short clip, so I don’t know if what he meant by saying that got explored further.
Did he mean we have the pitching we need to win a championship? Did he mean we have the pitching we need to go to the playoffs? Or did he mean we have the pitching we need to go out and be competitive most nights?
If I had to guess—and I am guessing—he meant the latter. Encouraging the pitchers you have, to be more consistent in their approach, is not a bad thing.
Every guy in the starting rotation, Chen, Guthrie, Mendoza, Smith and Hochevar has shown the ability to put up a quality start and keep the Royals in the game.
I’m assuming he meant that if the current guys could be more consistent, the Royals would be competitive most nights. I don’t assume he meant that the team’s satisfied with what they currently have.
One other thing: when a manager comes off the field he’s quickly put in front of the media no matter what kind of mood he’s in—and Ned has said that when they lose he’s usually in a bad one—and peppered with questions. They may something that they’d put a different way if they had more time to think about it.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 1 week agoI agree with the idea that the Royals starters are capable of good starts but inconsistent, and that is a problem. At the moment, Luis Mendoza and Will Smith are the most consistent starters, then probably Jeremy Guthrie, then Hoch and/or Chen.
The rotation is upside down and without more consistency from the offense, which lurches from 8 runs to 1 run and seems unable to settle into a consistent 4 or 5 runs per game, the team will lose a little too often. The offense at least has the excuse of being relatively young, but Hochevar and Chen can’t play that. They’re experienced pros and know what needs to be done to maintain performance near their highest possible level.
Scott Mall
10 months, 1 week agoHochevar reminds me of Kyle Davies. He seems to have the stuff, but can’t seem to keep focus, concentration, confidence, whatever it is that keeps him from being consistently effective. And at his age, he’s running out of time.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 1 week agoScott, starting to agree. His stuff is capable of domination, has two of the best three Royals’ starts this year, but also several of the worst.
I’ve seen it discussed that he may be a candidate for non-tender this year, his salary too high for expected overall production. I’ve suggested that it might be time to try him in the bullpen. He has closer stuff and maybe the shorter shifts would allow him to maintain focus a little better as well as use the heater at full speed.
Daniel Wesley
10 months, 1 week agoWe would all run out of fingers trying to count the pitchers throughout baseball history who have “stuff” but cant’ put it together. Luke is just another in a long line of those guys. The Royals gave Kyle Davies way too many chances… hopefully they don’t do the same with Hochevar.
Jim Wilson
10 months, 1 week agoWe can’t afford to spend $5 million on a bullpen arm when we are in such dire need of starting pitching.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 1 week agoTrue, Daniel, but you can’t teach “stuff” anymore than “speed”, so it does get more chances. That’s why I suggest “closer” for Luke, as well as Mike Montgomery. That is a different venue for stuff that might allow it to be productive. Made the same suggestion for Davies last year, take advantage of his tendency to dominate for the first few innings before imploding.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 1 week agoJW, that was the thesis of one of the commentators in the discussion I mentioned and that has validity. What also has validity is that at the moment the team is on the hook for Hoch’s current salary, so the experiment wouldn’t cost any more. Good closers make good money, so worth a try. If nothing else it might add some trade value and give Hochevar a chance to save his career.
As for dire need, of course. Just a matter of who we can get and for how much. Not sure KC is a prime destination for top FAs yet and there should be enough loose payroll to cover a couple of overpaid with injury histories #2s to at least upgrade the staff. Not sure Luke’s $5 mil will make or break any deals.
Chuck Smith
10 months, 1 week agoHooch is 7/10 in quality starts in his last 10 games. In the 7 quality starts he has exactly 10 earned runs. (He has 18 ERs in the 3 non quality). Out of those 7 he has 6 wins. (The one he lost was 2-1). If he can continue to win 6/10 or 5/10, i’m willing to keep watching. At 28 he should have a solid 5-8 years of playing time and i’d rather him put it all toghether for us than for somone else. His salary is 3.5 (from CBS) million this year, if it’s up to 6 next year, it’s still not too high to keep him. IMO.
Daniel Wesley
10 months, 1 week agoChuck, it’s incredibly rare for a 29 year old to suddenly ‘get it’ and become a good pitcher. The odds are overwhelmingly against Luke.
Luke has consistently underperformed his FIP and xFIP and is sitting on a career 5.29 ERA. The Royals can do better than that going forward.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 1 week agoChuck, Hoch also has ten quality starts out of twenty-three total, same rate as Bruce Chen, so that is the consistency problem. we never know which Luke Hochevar will show up. To be a frontline starter he needs to deliver 80% or so quality starts, 60% to be a #3 or so starter. I hope he gets it, I see the physical talent that the Royals believe in, but he picked a bad year to deliver 43% quality starts.
For our readers, per Martin Manley, a quality start delivers almost exactly a 50% chance of a team winning, same as a Bill James Game Score of 50. In Game Score, Luke is 11 of 23 and 5 of his last 10. He has 2 of the 3 best Game Scores this year and 2 of the 3 worst Game Scores. Luke is like a box of chocolates…(I’m sure I borrowed that from somebody, sorry, can’t remember who)
For the statistically oriented, Luke has racked up 1.4 fWAR, for the $3.5 mil, a bargain as a marginal addition for a big market team, but about twice the cost the Royals need to maintain with their payroll. B-R has him at -0.4 using a different rating method, which puts him at about 519 of 599 listed pitchers (thanks to Brendan for the link):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2012-value-pitching.shtml
Daniel, sadly I am starting to agree, but still a matter of needing someone better at the moment. I think I’ld send Hoch to the BP and give Everett Teaford a few starts. Both JaKKKe and Ryan Verdugo have put together some good starts lately, so expect to see both this year.
Luke Healy
10 months, 1 week agoChuck, good numbers on Hochevar of late, but recently he’s been better in the second half of the year. It’s too small of a sample when compared to his overall numbers to think it really definitively means something. I remember thinking the same thing when he did a little better last year in the second half.
I think Luke to the bullpen is an interesting idea, but we have enough good arms that are plenty cheaper. And we need starters desperately. I don’t put too much stock in Ned’s statement about the pitching. He is the manager, not the gm, so he is trying to get the most out of the players he has. If Dayton said the same thing I’d be far more concerned.
Also concerning to me is how bad Moose has been hitting since the end of June. He’s in a major slump, and I haven’t really heard it talked about much. Am also interested to see who comes up if dyson goes to the dl.
Daniel Wesley
10 months, 1 week agoJim, I’m okay with Hochevar in the rotation for the rest of this year, but next year we have many options to replace him that would be cheaper. Hopefully Dayton is aggressive and goes after an Edwin Jackson type, making Luke that much more expendable.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 1 week agoI wouldn’t go after Jackson, still don’t think he’s worth the money and the AL won’t be kind to him. Wouldn’t try to sign Roy Oswalt, either.
At the moment, depending on health, the Brewers’ Marcum and the Tigers’ Anibal Sanchez would be at the top of my list, Marcum as a local boy and solid #2 starter, Sanchez as a young guy who is getting experience in the AL.
At the moment, Jackson has the same fWAR and similar fips to Hochevar and in the weak league. Sanchez is not enjoying his time in the AL. Marcum has good numbers but has missed ten of his starts and is 30 years old. I don’t see Zack willing to return to a rebuilding club. FAs will be interesting this year.