Games » Baltimore Orioles
Aug9Driving the ball
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
At the All-Star break I asked Ned Yost what he wanted the team to do during the second half, and he said he thought the Royals needed to a better job of driving the ball. Driving the ball usually means pulling the ball and that means “getting the bat head out in front.” That’s technical talk for swinging earlier. Swinging earlier can mean more home runs — and if I’ve counted right the Royals have hit nine in their last five games — but it also means striking out more. (So if you like the home runs, live with the wild swings chasing pitches out of the zone.)
Trying to do both (hitting for power and average) is tricky. The hitter needs to take a contact approach (allow the ball to get deeper) in certain counts and look to drive the ball (hit the ball out in front) in other counts. Even then it all depends on the pitcher: the young Royals hitters need to learn the percentage pitch from each pitcher in each count, pay attention to what’s happening in the game that night, and then figure out when they can try to go deep. That experience takes time. Two of the more experienced Royals guessed right twice in the first inning of this game. Kansas City scored four in the first and never looked back.
Game notes
After Alex Gordon went deep in the first inning, Alcides Escobar hit a single. The significant thing here was the positioning of the Orioles third baseman, Manny Machado. Machado was in on the grass because of Escobar’s history of bunting for base hits. Those bunts bought Esky another hit when he shot the ball past Machado.
With two down in the first and a 3-0 count, Jeff Francouer got a green light from Ned Yost. Ned told me he likes the 3-0 green light for power hitters and letting Francoeur hack — he fouled the pitch back — was taking shot at a third home run in the inning.
Baltimore’s centerfielder, Adam Jones, made a base-running mistake in the bottom of the first. Jones hit a laser to left, appeared to think it was gone and didn’t exactly bust it out of the box. Hitters who do this — assume home run — and then find out they’re wrong, are embarrassed if they only get a single, so they often push it on the base paths in an effort to get a face-saving double. Gordon threw Jones out easily. They say doubles are made out of the box — so are outfield assists.
Jeff Francoeur doubled to right in the third, continuing his trend of taking the ball the other way since doing extra work with Kevin Seitzer. Last season Jeff did a better job of getting a pitch out over the plate, and he hit .285, 47 doubles, 4 triples, 20 home runs and had 87 RBIs. Getting back to that approach was part of the message he received during his benching, so seeing Francoeur hit balls hard the other way is a good sign that he’s getting back to last year’s approach.
If pitcher Will Smith was frustrated with the home plate umpire, he shouldn’t show it. It doesn’t help and may make the umpire mad. That was part of Jonathan Broxton’s ultra-slow approach to the game: he wasn’t going to let anybody — hitters or umpires — see him sweat. If a player is frustrated, he needs to go out of sight to act that frustration out. Players who smash water coolers in dugouts are seen as out of control. Players who smash water cooler in the area behind the dugout are seen as professional. (The exceptions to this rule are the few players who have the reputation to get away with showing their irritation. Greg Maddux could yell at an umpire to bear down and the umpire might do it.)
A good lobbyist behind the plate can be of immense help to a pitcher. Catchers are constantly talking to umpires while staring straight ahead. They’re often pleading the case of the pitcher, “C’mon, we’re going to need that pitch or it’s going to be a long night.” Or they might ask the umpire to give the same pitch a closer look the next time. Veteran catchers who have a good relationship with the umpires can help a rookie pitcher out immensely.
One morning I looked at the newspaper box scores and saw that my buddy, Russ Morman, had tripled. I called Russ — who is not exactly feet of foot — and asked, “Who died?” Nobody had a heart attack, but it turned out Deion Sanders dove for a Morman line drive and the ball got past him. Same thing with Billy Butler‘s fifth inning triple: right fielder Nick Markakis dove for Butler’s fly ball and the ball got away. There was one down and the ball was hit to right, so it was the perfect time to go for third base. (Although right field in Camden is short — 318 feet — so runners need to keep that in mind when trying to beat a right fielder’s throw.) Butler made it safely to third and then scored on Salvador Perez’s sacrifice fly.
In the seventh, Chris Getz, Alcides Escobar and Eric Hosmer pulled off a spectacular double play. MLB.com has the video highlight if you missed it the first time.
A small moment in the eighth: during a long season that isn’t going well, Eric Hosmer continues to play hard, breaking up a double play to keep an inning alive.
Jeremy Jeffress pitched the ninth, and his leadoff walk of Mark Reynolds forced Ned Yost to get Kelvin Herrera up in the pen. (Pitches thrown in warm-ups count, too.) The Royals count the number of times a pitcher warms up in the bullpen when figuring out their workload.
Ball four to Reynolds appeared to be well within the strike zone, but when umpires set up on the inside shoulder of the catcher they sometimes have trouble with pitches down and away. Pitchers — and catchers — need to know which pitches are getting called strikes and which pitches are getting called balls and adjust accordingly. That’s why inconsistency makes players crazy: don’t call something a ball for eight innings and then make it a strike in the ninth — it confuses everybody.
The slide
The headfirst slide is now the slide of choice for many big leaguers, but it does have its disadvantages. If the runner is known to come in head first, infielders aren’t afraid to drop a knee and block the runner off the bag. If the runner comes in feet first, nobody wants to take a spike to the thigh, so the defender is less likely to get in the runner’s way. (And those spikes do leave nasty cuts — Mike Moustakas had one near his thumb a while back after getting spiked on a tag.)
It’s also easier for the runner to get injured on the headfirst slide: the runner’s hands are exposed. It’s easy to get a finger stepped on bent back when reaching for the bag. (This is why you see some players holding their batting gloves in their hands while they run the bases — holding on to the gloves keeps the hand closed and prevents the fingers from being bent back.)
The headfirst slide is faster — unless the ball gets away. The feet-first pop-up slide not only allows a runner to get up and advance to the next base faster, but it present a better picture to the umpire: look at me, I’m already standing on the bag.
Some runners use both slides. Alex Gordon will use the headfirst slide going into second base (it’s faster and he can’t see the throw coming from behind him) and go feet first going into third base, especially if he can see the throw will be late.
Butler
Gordon
Smith
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoAlex’s throw to SECOND in the btm 1st was not his greatest throw, but it was definitely one of his most crucial. How did he decide so fast where to throw?
Eiland did a great job of settling down Will Smith, who thought he was getting squeezed, which he probably was, but the point: A pitch ain’t nothin’ ‘til the umpire sez what it is. I think the rook got the point. I really like this young lefty. Reminds me a bit of Splitt.
Good to see Jeffress in there. If he can come through and Cain continue to impress, the Greinke trade MIGHT go down as one of Royals greatest ever.
The DP to end the 7th was sensational, not to mention crucial. Would Yuni have made the diving stop, not to mention the fine flip to Esky, whose superb turn closed the deal? Doubt it. I still stay good riddance, good luck to Yuni, but I hope to never again see him in a KC uniform.
Charles Tyler
9 months, 1 week agoJust curious. When Billy struck out in the ninth, he kept his bat with him and went straight into the dugout tunnel. Did he do a little venting or was there another reason for taking his bat with him.
Thayne Griffin
9 months, 1 week agoI believe this is the game the FO dreamed about when “The Process” was started.
Charles, maybe he was checking it for holes ;)
Brian Grant
9 months, 1 week agoWhen the Royals have their annual “winning September against losing club’s B-teams”, remind me not to get excited.
Jay Hall
9 months, 1 week agoBrian,
Of the Royals final 29 games, they have 3 with the Angels, who will probably be fighting for the west title to avoid the wild card game, 4 with Texas, who will be in that same fight, 7 with Detroit, who may be fighting for the central crown, and 6 with Chicago who may be in that battle with Detroit (unless one of those teams pulls away late).
So unless those division races get decided in the next couple of weeks, 20 of the Royals last 29 games will matter to their opponent more than they will matter to the Royals. If they have a winning September and early October, they will do so by beating teams in the pennant race.
Lee Judge
9 months, 1 week agoCharles: Most bat racks in the majors are kept just outside the dugout. Billy may have been putting his bat back, but if he did a little venting first, it wouldn’t surprise me.
Jay Hall
9 months, 1 week agoMeant to post this yesterday in the second baseman discussion.
The average starting AL 2B has started 87 games this year, had 413 chances and committed 7 errors. That comes out to 4.74 chances per game (slightly different because this accounts only for the regular 2B on each team, not the total chances at 2B), and 1 error every 59 chances. This imaginary average 2B has an OPS+ of 90, which makes sense because 2B has lower offense players than a lot of other positions. In fact, there are only 10 regular 2B in all of baseball that OPS+ at 100 or higher. The highest OPS+ for 2B is 145 (Robinson Cano). The lowest is 58.
Chris Getz is slightly (but only slightly) below average as a 2B. His OPS+ is 86. He gets 4.45 chances per game and commits 1 error every 53.5 chances. His OPS would be higher than 12 2B’s in baseball and tied with 2 others, putting him almost squarely in the middle on offense and roughly in the middle, slightly below on defense.
As I said yesterday, if Giavotella was the worst defensive 2B in baseball (only 4.05 chances per game, 1 error every 28-30 chances), but could OPS+ around 92 (.260/.320/.385) he would be a roughly league average 2B as well because his offense would be slightly better than league average and his defense, while atrocious, would not be costly enough to offset his bat.
To show the difference in positions, at another spot on the diamond the average OPS+ is 112. This position gets fewer chances per game defensively (only 2.14) and commits error more infrequently (1 every 63 chances). For this position, only 6 of the other 29 teams play a guy regularly who has an OPS+ less than 100. Those OPS+ numbers are 98, 96, 83, 82, 78 and 69. Basically, if you aren’t close to league average with the bat here (not league average for the position, league average overall, which is 100) no amount of defensive prowess can keep you from hurting your team because the offensive expectations are so high. The top 5 OPS+ at this position are 149, 141, 138, 135, 132. All of those are further above the league average than the lowest OPS+. This position, of course, is RF.
Jeff Francoeur has an OPS+ of 79 (third lowest in all of baseball). He’s a full 30% worse than the AVERAGE RF with the bat.
Defense is only valuable if you are close to league average with the bat. Drop more than about 5%-7% off league average for your position, and you can’t make up for that with defense because the nightly lack of offense overwhelms the extra play you might make every 3-5 games in the field.
Getz is on the border offensively, hovering right around that 5% mark. Francoeur has long since passed that point. Hosmer is also well below the 5% below average for the season, obviously.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoBrian, by my recollection the Royals recently are 7-3 against two division leaders and an eastern division contender. The opponents had a combined win total of 185 games, an average of about 61 wins each. The Central Division champion will have to go through the Royals, who will have some say in the matter. Good experience for the kids.
Jay, is 50 extra bases really only worth 5 OPS+ points? That’s equal to about 85 SLG points, unless I misunderstand that stat. I thought it would be much greater than that.
Terry, didn’t see a wide view on the Gordon throw but wondered if the CF was yelling “Two” at him when the ball came off the wall. Alex looked like he knew he was going to 2nd as he set his feet for the pick up.
Nathan Coltrane
9 months, 1 week agoSince the emphasis has been on driving the ball since the ASG, were the hitters trying a little too hard in July, created that big offensive hold we saw?
Seems like they may be finally trying to hit good pitches hard to last week. Hard to hit that breaking ball in on the feet or down and away, especially when you swing out of your socks.
Jay Hall
9 months, 1 week agoJim,
The absolute best defender is involved in maybe 6 plays a night on a busy night (other than the 1st baseman). Even the best defender will commit errors sometimes. Rarely will an infielder go through a season without committing fewer than a handful of errors. Last year no defender had even 800 total chances. No outfielder had even 450 total chances.
However, every single regular player in the majors will get 600 ABs in a healthy season. The league averages for OBP and SLG last year were .320 and .359. Since that’s the standard for the average offensive player, that equals 100. The average 2B is about 10% worse offensively than the average MLB player, so that means the average 2B is at .288 OBP and .399 SLG. 5% worse than that is .274 OBP and .341 SLG. Those are pretty dismal numbers.
Over 600 ABs, that means if you are 5% worse than a typical 2B, you are on base 9 fewer times (7 hits, 2 walks) over the course of the season and have 11 (4 singles, 2 doubles, 1 triple) fewer total bases. Plus a .221/.274/.341 (5% worse than an average 2B) slash line really doesn’t scream play this guy every day. That’s why I set the cut off at 5%. Once you get past that, particularly for the positions that OPS+ below league average (SS, 2B, CF, C), you can’t make up for basically being an out machine at the plate with your glove because you can’t make enough plays to justify it. You won’t get enough balls hit to you to justify being that bad.
For higher offense positions, a better cutoff might be league average (100) because RF and 1B particularly have some pretty high numbers.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoGetz is at .318/.365, so is about major league average.
I think the main disagreement is how to quantify defense. I think that if Gio doesn’t get to one ball every three games that Getz does, he would have to make up that difference on offense, 50 balls in 150 games just to break even with.
Last night was an example. I don’t think anyone believes that Yuni or Gio gets that ball up the middle which was turned into two outs. In that situation Getz and Escobar saved two bases and rang up two outs. That has some value.
We saw the “not get to” out of Yuni and we’ve seen it so far out of Gio. I assume the Royals’ FieldF/x equipment is able to quantify that fairly precisely and compare Royals’ players to each other and against other players at the K, which may be why Chris still has his job and Johnny’s still in Omaha. But good explanations, Jay. I’m learning.
Jay Hall
9 months, 1 week agoGetz is close to league average in OBP, but about 50 points off in SLG. Even with his new stance, he’s not driving the ball enough to be league average in that category. Overall though, he’s roughly average when offense and defense are combined.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week ago“The league averages for OBP and SLG last year were .320 and .359.”
Fan graphs has Getz at .318/.365. Typo?
“Overall though, he’s roughly average when offense and defense are combined.”
Which is why he has the job. Gio will get another chance in three weeks to show if he can finally hit major-league pitching, fourth time’s a charm, although I expect Abreu to also get quite a few reps at 2nd. Gio’s at the point where he has to beat out two players now with a third close behind.