Games » Chicago White Sox
Aug8The best-pitched game of the year
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
“The best-pitched game of the year.” That was how manager Ned Yost described Jeremy Guthrie’s 2-1 win against the Chicago White Sox.
Guthrie gave the Royals everything they’ve been looking for in a starting pitcher. Jeremy went deep in the game, threw first-pitch strikes, worked ahead in the count, worked quickly, threw his fastball in the mid-90s, showed a curveball with depth, pitched down in the zone and on both sides of the plate, didn’t walk a batter in eight innings, put up a quality start and allowed the Royals to win the series.
They got this guy for Jonathan Sanchez?
Game notes
After his last start, Guthrie told me he would like to go deeper in games. Guthrie said that to do that, he needed to keep his pitch count down in the first inning. So I was paying attention to how this game started.
It started with an E-6, later changed to a hit. Either way, it was a play Alcides Escobar could have made and not making it cost Guthrie an extra eight pitches. Pay attention to errors that cost pitchers extra pitches. The inning may be scoreless, but it might shorten the starting pitcher’s outing. And getting into the pen in the seventh inning instead of the eighth might cost a ballgame.
Guthrie got back on track with a 12-pitch second inning.
Salvador Perez got a fastball in a 2-0 fastball count and homered to right field. Guys who can homer the opposite way are special. Pitchers stay on the outer part of the plate to rob hitters of power. Guys who can take those outside pitches and drive them out of the park are scary.
Eric Hosmer saved Mike Moustakas on a high throw in the fourth inning. Moose launched the throw, Hosmer went up, snagged the ball and came down to tag the runner while spinning counterclockwise. The counterclockwise move is necessary when a first baseman reaches in to tag a runner. It prevents the runner from bending the first baseman’s wrist back. The spin move can save a broken wrist.
In the fifth inning, Jeff Francouer singled and took off for second base on what appeared to have been a straight steal. On a hit-and-run, the runner looks to the plate to pick up the ball, but Frenchy had his head down all the way. Hosmer swung at a hung slider (if the hitter does not get a take sign, he’s free to swing) and Chicago shortstop Alexei Ramirez deked Francouer.
Hosmer popped up to center field, but Ramirez went to the bag and pretended to be taking a throw from the catcher. That made Francoeur hustle all the way to the bag, and by the time he picked up the fly ball in center, it was too late. The Sox doubled him off first.
In the eighth inning, Alex Gordon stole second on a breaking pitch. Most of the time that doesn’t happen by accident. The Royals either know the percentage pitch in that count with that pitcher or have some other way of figuring that an off-speed pitch is on the way.
Guthrie came out for the eighth inning with a 2-0 lead. He was facing the bottom third of Chicago’s order, got two quick outs and then gave up a single to the No. 9 hitter, Orlando Hudson. Aaron Crow and Tim Collins then got up in the bullpen.
Many managers won’t let a starter who goes deep into a game face the winning run late in the game. A manager is not going to let a guy bust his butt for the team and then take a loss. So if leadoff hitter Alejandro De Aza had gotten on base, it wouldn’t have surprised me if Yost went and got Guthrie. Guthrie got De Aza, so Crow and Collins sat down and Greg Holland got up.
The ninth inning
One of the questions asked about any new closer is this: Will he be able to execute his pitches under pressure? The ninth inning of this game gave fans an answer: So far so good. Holland was throwing in the upper 90s, and Chicago’s leadoff hitter, Gordon Beckham, fouled one of those fastballs straight back. That is a sign that the hitter’s timing is right. He’s just under the ball. The pitcher usually has two options at this point: Throw the next pitch higher or change speeds. Holland changed speeds and struck Beckham out on a slider.
Holland then got Adam Dunn to two strikes, and catcher Salvador Perez wanted a high fastball. Many lefties are low-ball hitters (picture a golf swing), so there’s a hole in their swing up and in. If you throw hard enough and if you hit that spot. Guthrie took advantage of that hole in Dunn’s swing, striking him out three times, and Perez wanted Holland to do the same. Greg missed, slightly down, and Dunn doubled.
Holland used the same pattern on Kevin Youkilis that he used on Beckham: speed the bat up with fastballs and then strike the hitter out with sliders. A.J. Pierzynski didn’t give Holland a chance to change speeds, hitting the second fastball he saw. Then Holland and Perez pitched backward to Alexei Ramirez.
Ramirez probably was seeing all the early fastballs everyone was getting and came to the plate geared up to turn on the fan. So Holland went slider instead, getting Ramirez out in front and allowing him to pull strikes one and two foul. (This is a common tactic early in the count: go soft inside, let the hitter crush the ball foul for strike one or two.)
After that, Ramirez got one between the white lines, but right at Escobar. Game over. Royals 2, White Sox 1.
In case you missed it
The Star’s Bob Dutton had a story about Baseball America’s annual survey of major-league managers, who were asked which players have the best tools. Here are the Royals who got mentioned.
• Jarrod Dyson, third-fastest American League base runner behind the Angels’ Mike Trout and Peter Bourjos.
• Eric Hosmer, third-best defensive first baseman in the AL behind New York’s Mark Teixeira and Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez.
• Mike Moustakas, third-best defensive third baseman in the AL behind the Rangers’ Adrian Beltre and Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria.
• Alcides Escobar, third-best infield arm in the AL behind Beltre and Oakland’s Cliff Pennington.
• Jeff Francoeur, third-best outfield arm in the AL behind Toronto’s Jose Bautista and Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Choo.
Guthrie
Moustakas
Holland
Brian Rose
9 months, 1 week agoMissed the game, freching got thrown out… I wander what his numbers would be if you figure batting average and base running. Encouraging pitching if it can be repeated more often than not. So do we like dyson and Getz now? Haven’t been watching games lately.
William Wolfe
9 months, 1 week agoJim—wanted to continue something from your last post last night. You have hit the nail on the head. The Royals don’t think OBP is the single most important factor. But guess what the single most important factor is in baseball—scoring runs. And how do you score runs? Get on base. It has been proven over and over again that higher OBP = more runs scored. So, the Royals don’t think OBP is the most important, but it turns out that it is. That’s the worst part of this whole thing. It’s why signing Frenchy and Yuni were so terrible. That single fundamental attitude puts us in the dark ages, and it shows on the field. Do you need strong defensive play from the catcher and SS? Absolutely, don’t get me wrong. But the underlying notion that Dayton doesn’t value OBP is part of the reason we’re in the crap state we’re in right now. That and no starting pitching. But at least we’ve got a RF with 33 homers and a 2B with a .410 OBP…in Omaha.
Greg Tatro
9 months, 1 week agoI won’t get too excited about Guthrie yet…but at least he gives the Royals a chance to win. Sanchez was a guaranteed loss and the only question was by how many.
Thayne Griffin
9 months, 1 week ago“They got this guy for Jonathan Sanchez?”
Hard to believe. I agree with Greg, the question was “by how many.”
I would have to look it up, but I think the heavy majority of Salvy’s HRs this year have been the opposite way. He’s shown more power than I thought he had so far this season.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoWW, Royals are 15th in OBP at .319, tied with the Nats and White Sox, both of which have scored more runs, 24 and 61 respectively, and both of which have hit more homers, 30 and 46 respectively.
“But at least we’ve got a RF with 33 homers and a 2B with a .410 OBP…in Omaha.”
Our 1st baseman had a .525 OBP in Omaha. His career OBP in the majors is .319 on 999 at-bats.
As for Wil Myers, he’s had a couple of good games after a nasty slump, but so has Frenchy. It’s a big step up from Omaha to KC, as we’ve seen fairly often. I think Myers will be good but the K is a much bigger stadium than Werner and will turn a lot of Wil’s homers into fly outs or doubles and will probably expose his outfield skills.
As for Gio, his glove is so poor he may never get much chance to finally turn his bat on with the Royals. We already have a DH. I expect him to be traded this off-season with Colon at Omaha and Falu, Getz, and Abreu all with some major-league success and three of the four with multiple positions. Second base is also a defensive premium position, as Yuni and Gio have reminded us.
David Shaw
9 months, 1 week agoIf the Royals care so much about having a good glove at 2B, why did they play Yuni so much? This has been a wasted year, with wasted ABs going to RF and 2B. If this team does turn the corner, I think we’re going to look back at this year with even more regret and disappointment. We’ve burned through another year of Moose and Hosmer with no real progress made at the major league level. If we’re going to lose 90 games, might as well do it with Gio and Myers in the lineup. It’s beyond explanation why we didn’t devote this year to growth after such a horrid start to the year. Giving Yuni 250 ABs should cost someone their job.
Josh Cooper
9 months, 1 week agoSo, you’d prefer Frenchy continue to play over Myers? If you wanted to do that to keep Myers’ clock from starting, I could understand that, but you sound like you are saying Myers MIGHT flop so let’s stick with what we know in Frenchy.
William Wolfe
9 months, 1 week agoThat’s Jim’s whole thing. Prospects don’t always work out, so therefore GMDM has done the right thing by not giving them a chance. Stagnation is his favorite approach.
Josh Cooper
9 months, 1 week agoThe main thing to understand is we are not going to win with the 25 guy we have currently on the roster. It is not going to happen. We need to start replacing our below average talent with people that are either above average or have the potential to be so.
Jeff Francoeur is a below average talent. Wil Myers can be above average. A guy like Chris Getz floats right around the average/below average level. I can stand having him on the team. I would prefer Gio because Getz is going to start costing a bit more, and Gio could replace him and save some money. Gio’s offense would hopefully make up for his defense. If it doesn’t, well, you can always go with Falu/Abreu. But the potential is too high to just leave him in AAA.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoFrenchy is currently in a platoon with Dyson, last I heard, so has been demoted.
WW, prospects get chances, Gio had one last year, he went into SP as the clear favorite, and he came up this year for another try. In all three he didn’t hit and couldn’t play 2B. In comparison, other guys came up from Omaha and did hit last year and this year. Not all prospects make it, some are just AAAA players.
Myers is a different case, apparently challenged by breaking stuff at AAA and still not solid in the the cozy OF of Werner Park. There are clock issues with him as well and also questions of whether he is ready yet. For the Royals, the experience with Moose and Hoz will factor into a decision to do an early call-up.
Josh, I’m saying that Myers probably isn’t ready. I expect him to be good: he has good size, he has a really nice, fast swing, shows some plate discipline and awareness, and has athleticism. He’s also quite young and isn’t exactly tearing up the PCL at the moment beyond good HR totals in a couple of small parks. Another month this year will help him, they may decide a few months in Omaha next year will be good for both his development and years of control. The Royals see him every day, I can think of only one blogger with the chance to see him about half the time.
William Wolfe
9 months, 1 week agoWell the eyeball test never lies, so we shouldn’t give Myers a chance at the big club.
David Shaw
9 months, 1 week agoMyers and Gio, even if they aren’t “ready,” would still be an improvement over the players currently getting those ABs. Saying Gio had a chance and failed after only 1/3 of a season of ABs is absurd. I think Royals fans have good reason to not trust the organization’s evaluation of talent after seeing a player every day.
Josh Cooper
9 months, 1 week agoBut Frenchy is challenged by nearly every pitch at the major leagues. And he is a statue in right. He has a career WAR of 6.5. That’s in 1101 games. And it isn’t going up. This year he’s at -2.8. You know how bad you have to do be to have a WAR that low?
There are two reasons that Frenchy is still playing. It’s either because Moore can’t admit to the mistake he made by signing him to a two year contract or he feels he owes Frenchy something. And that’s not how winning baseball teams are made.
As for Gio, he’s had 247 career ML AB’s. Chris Getz has 1150. Getz’ career OPS is .632 while Gio’s is .613. Not exactly a huge difference, but Getz gets the nod there. He also is better defensively so there is another win for Getz. But comparing their minor league numbers shows Gio has room for growth if given the opportunity. But really, I’m okay with either. Gio is extremely cheap, though, while Getz is going to slowly get more expensive, and Gio could potentially be a lot better offensively. That’s why it makes no sense in a losing season to not have him up here and see him every day. If we don’t like him after another 250-300 ABs then go with Getz next year.
I guess that’s the most frustrating part. We are going to lose this year. We are going to lose next year if we don’t change something. Now is the time to get some guys some experience when there is absolutely nothing to lose.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoHere’s Wil Myers minor-league sheet for the year. Some interesting trends.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=CF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=571976
“It’s either because Moore can’t admit to the mistake he made by signing him to a two year contract or he feels he owes Frenchy something.”
We heard that Dayton Moore couldn’t admit a mistake with Sanchez and Yuni, so I think that idea has been put to bed. Then we note that Frenchy is now in a platoon and that means Dyson will get most at-bats, so that makes “owes” a questionable judgement.
As for Gio, it all gets back to the glove and how much he would have to hit to compensate for hits allowed in the field. We looked at that some months ago. If he doesn’t get to one ball every three games over an average, Chris Getz fielder, he has to hit 85 points better just for a wash. I don’t think anyone expects Giavotella to hit .360. Right now Tony Abreu, former top prospect before injury, has passed him on the depth chart and Christian Colon was just promoted to Omaha, so not sure Gio is even an issue at this point and I think he gets traded in the off-season. Two players ahead of him and one on his heels. One reason another commentator suggested for Gio not coming up is to keep the luster on his 11th ranked PCL OPS rather than diminish his trade value by actually bringing him up. We’ll see.
Josh Cooper
9 months, 1 week agoThe platoon is no longer in play. According to Ryan or Rex, forget which one, they said that Yost had gone back on that idea after Francoeur hit homers in back to back games. That’s why Frenchy played against Jake Peavy, a right hander, back on August 7th.
I guess I’ll have to find that article about Gio because I can’t see Gio having to hit over .360 to make up for his defensive miscues. And the fact that management would put Abreu over Gio on a depth chart says more about management then it does about Gio. This is the same team that played Betancourt a ton at 2B. You do realize that, right? What was the defense for them then? Betancourt was a good leader or something?
And the thought that we are putting to bed the idea that Moore refuses to admit to a mistake is not correct. You say since he got rid of Sanchez and Yuni it proves that, all I have to say is look how long it took him. Sanchez was still getting starts in July! Yuni was just finally dropped in August!
Josh Cooper
9 months, 1 week agoI guess I’ll just end my argument that stating, once again, this season was not our time. We are done for in 2012. Might as well play guys like Gio to see what we have. We know what Getz will give us next year. What possibly do we lose by playing Gio every day?
David Shaw
9 months, 1 week agoThere is nothing to lose by playing Gio every day. And of course, Josh, you’re right that keeping Gio at AAA because of his glove, and simultaneously playing an atrocious fielder out of position at 2B, is borderline lunacy and indefensible, no matter how anyone tries to spin it. This off-season and next year has to be a make it or break it year for Moore. Unfortunately, that makes it more likely that Yost will be back at the helm – I doubt Glass would let Moore hire another head coach at this point without progress being made in the W/L column.
Jay Hall
9 months, 1 week agoJim,
Your logic about defense is flawed. Johnny G doesn’t have to hit 85 points better to be playable at second.
Through yesterday’s games the second basemen in MLB had between 607 (Min) and 460 (Tex) total chances. League average is 526. The median is 526.5 (Seattle at 528, Washington at 525). These are the total number of defensive chances for each team’s second baseman, so it’s as balanced as it can get. FWIW, the Royals have 493 total chances at second. That means that through 110 games the Royals have had about 4.5 chances per game. League average would be around 4.8. League high is 5.5. League low is 4.2.
The league average second baseman has 526.5 chances, 9 errors, 4.8 chances per game and 1 error every 58.44 chances.
Chris Getz has had 207 chances in 47 games started this year. That’s 4.4 chances per game. Betancourt had 220 chances in 51 games started. That’s 4.3 chances per game. Both below league average.
For Giavotella to get to 1 less ball than Getz every 3 games he’d have to be getting only about 4.06 chances per game. Giavotella isn’t that much worse than Betancourt in range. He’d have to be the worst 2B (by far) in all of MLB to do that.
Or you could look at errors per chance. Getz has 4 errors in his 207 chances. Betancourt had 6 errors in his 220 chances. Getz made an error every 51.75 chances. Betancourt made one every 36.67 chances. For Giavotella to hurt his value that much he’d have to make 1 more error every 28 or so chances. Again, that’d be an error basically every 7 games.
If Johnny Giavotella can be a slightly (about 5-8% above league average) above average hitter he can make up for his defensive shortcomings even if he is THE WORST FIELDING SECOND BASEMAN IN ALL OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL.
We know this is possible because the best team in the American League ACTUALLY PLAYS the worst fielding 2B in ALL OF BASEBALL and he hits slightly better than league average.
Ian Kinsler, who has handled 417 of the (league low) 460 2B chances (4.34 chances per game) and committed 14 of the (second in all of baseball) 15 errors (1 error every 29.78 chances) for the Rangers is currently hitting .278/.347/.444 with 30 doubles, 3 triples, 13 HR, 20 SB and an OPS+ of 106. I don’t know if this is the appropriate place, but I will point out that Texas currently boasts the best record in the AL (65-45) and has been to back to back World Series. And they play Ian Kinsler basically every single day.
I’m sick of the “his defense is too horrible” argument because its difficult to imagine Gia getting to fewer than about 4 balls a game and committing more than 1 error every 8 games or so. He’d have to be worse than the worst 2B ever to do BOTH of those things, and even then, if he hit about 12%-15% better than league average, he’d still be playable (not necessarily watchable, but playable).
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoYuni was played bc he was acquired rather cheaply and had some pop in his bat. As little power as the Royals have this year, they had to play SOMEbody who could occasionally go deep. Plus, Getzie kept getting hurt.
Gia has yet to prove he can hit MLB pitching and his defense is AWFUL. Remeber that one popup he went out after? He looked like a drunken sailor stumbling around out there. He has no range that I have seen and is therefore limited in what other position he can play. I sez use him as trade bait. Getz will be fine if the offense can perform consistently. We need his legs and his bunting skills, plus he turns a very good double play. Getz also is very smart, baseball-wise and hustles his buttocks off ALL the time.
The offense will be fine once HOS stops pressing and swinging like Josh Hamilton - at anything that moves. There is a fine line between aggressiveness at the plate and recklessness. Ask Frency about that, too. Hos needs to use the offseason to reflect, hone his swing, relax, and realize the franchise does NOT rest on his shoulders alone. Seeing a sports psychologist wouldn’t hurt HOS either.
Meanwhile, the team is playing much better with MUCH improved SP. But also notice that the pressure is off everyone, now that their chances of winning anything are done. Seems to happen most every year.
Josh Cooper
9 months, 1 week agoGood stuff there, Jay.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoJay, that 0.3 balls per game difference works out to almost one ball per three games, fifty per year. Fifty hits in 150 games is about .085. Not bad for a quick guess.
For the rest of your quite good post, I would mention that Yuni is gone and comparisons for Gio should be with Getz and Abreu, the two players currently ahead of him on the depth chart.
“its difficult to imagine Gia getting to fewer than about 4 balls”
His career is 4.04 bpg, .72 behind league average, per B-P. That’s 108 hits per year. He’ld have to hit .480.
I would have thought the experience with Yuni and Gio would finally have given some appreciation for infield defense and a little love for Getzie.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoJay, checked on Ian Kinsler at fangraphs. He’s not the same defender as the previous two years and his offense is down some. Has he been hurt? UZR/150 dropped from 16.2 to 1.2 and DRS from 18 to -3.
Jay Hall
9 months, 1 week agoJim,
Fair is fair. Under your current logic, Getz isn’t playable. This isn’t to knock on Getz, because I think Getz has been roughly a league average 2B this year. But your logic is flawed.
Still, under that logic if Gia has to get enough hits to offset the hits he allows over average (108 per year), so does Getz. Getz only gets 4.4 chances per game. That’s .36 fewer than league average. He’d need to get 54 more hits than a league average defensive 2B under your logic to justify having his glove out there defensively. Right now, he’s hitting .280/.320/.372 with 9 doubles, 3 triples no homeruns, 8 SB and an OPS+ of 89. He’s roughly 11% below average with the bat (in a career year for him with the bat) and slightly below average with the glove according to both chances per error and total chances.
By the standard you applied to Gia, Getz’s bat cannot justify playing him at 2B.
As I said earlier, Gia doesn’t have to be that much better than what Getz is with the bat, maybe .280/.340/.405 (pretty close to what Gia’s minor league equivalents are), and that gives him an OPS+ of 103 (a few more walks, a little more pop). If he did that, he would easily be a better overall 2B than Getz is. Drop him down to a .260/.320/.385 hitter and he’d be OPS+ of 92 and probably be about the same as Getz overall (better with the bat, worse with the glove), maybe slightly worse, but even then, given that Getz will make about twice what Giavotella makes next year, it’s not really a close question.
And that’s assuming that he would be, by far, the worst defensive second baseman IN ALL OF BASEBALL. If he wasn’t that bad defensively, maybe 4.15 chances per game (still worst, but closer to the league basement, instead of the 4.04) he’d only give up around 88 “extra” hits. If he did that and hit .260/.320/.385 he’d be roughly league average overall as a 2B. Anything more than that would be gravy.
There’s nothing in Gia’s minor league development that even suggests he’d be worse than a .260/.320/.385 hitter long term. The numbers suggest he would be much better than that.
William Wolfe
9 months, 1 week agoJay, that is great factually based analysis right there. I understand JF’s approach but it seems flawed and I think you’re showing the impact it would have on Getz as well. I spent some time looking at defensive metrics on Fangraphs to try to figure this out as well (but Jay did a great job here). I looked at the combined 2011/2012 defensive numbers, and using UZR (say what you will about UZR but we’re talking about getting to balls, which is what UZR is all about, so shouldn’t be a quibble), Getz has been 17.8 runs/150 games better than Gia. Using 10 runs per win, let’s call it 1.8 wins, or .9 wins per season. Then I looked at Getz’s offensive production in the same time period, he generated 1.6 WAR, so Gia needs to make up the defensive shortage by generating 1.7ish WAR on offense per year (50% * 1.6 + .9). I then looked at 2011 full year stats and picked a 2b with close to 1.7 WAR, Robert Andino of Baltimore (who had 1.8). His numbers included 511 PA, 22 doubles, 5 homers, 41 walks and 83 strikeouts. Now, if we prorate what Gia HAS ALREADY DONE (not what he could do but what he’s done), over 511 PA, he would have roughly 24 doubles, 4 homers, 20 walks and 84 strikeouts. Walks are a gap in this case, but remember this is based on Gia’s complete failure to date. So if he gets any better, he’s already more than made up for his defensive problems. And if he stays the same, he’s pretty much there. Plus, his minor league walk rate is double what he’s done in his failed major league career, so even if he moves a tick closer to that minor league walk rate, he’s more valuable than Getz. And also he’s cheaper, which ought to be music to Glass’ ears.
I think it’s great that Chris Getz has a slightly higher amount of power this year, and he’s gritty and all that, but his defensive prowess (if you can call it that) does NOT make up for his offensive shortcomings. Not enough anyway. Gia’s the guy, I just don’t get it.
David Zacharia
9 months, 1 week agoLee, I appreciate your information very much especially your insight like the counter-clockwise tag then the left handed first baseman must catch the ball off the base. I’m going to teach my nine year old son that tonight. I also love the Royals coaches/players videos. The Getz bunting video was very helpful for my son. Keep up the excellent work, I very much appreciate what you share for your readers.
David Zacharia
9 months, 1 week agoIt seems the Royals are set for a year or two with utility men. Abreu looks really good and Falu is solid. Probably can keep both for little cost.
If the Royals are playing for next season it’s time to play Dyson and Cain every day and see what they can do. Francour is a solid player but he doesn’t fit with the Royals plans. If we were in the playoff hunt then play Francour.
Perez may be our best position player. His throws to the bases are in the same spot every time, just off the base at the runners sliding hands. He is amazing.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 1 week agoExcept that Getz doesn’t have to because he’s not competing against other teams, only within the Royals. I hear what you are saying, but this isn’t fantasy baseball. All Getz has to do to hold his job is be better than Giavotella and Abreu at the moment. If there is a Pedroia on the FA market or a trade of a better, younger 2nd baseman comes along, Getzie will go to Omaha and polish his utility skills as everyone expected over last winter when it was assumed Gio would be given the job.
“Drop him down to a .260/.320/.385 hitter and he’d be OPS+ of 92 and probably be about the same as Getz overall (better with the bat, worse with the glove)”
Getz’ current is .280/.320/.372.
“he’d only give up around 88 “extra” hits.”
That’s a lot of hits and assumes that each missed chance only allows one base.
WW, good explanation. Looks like Yuni’s UZR/150 is -34.8 at 2nd, Gio’s -26. Getz is 0.7.
“There’s nothing in Gia’s minor league development that even suggests he’d be worse than a .260/.320/.385 hitter long term.”
But plenty in his two visits to the majors and his SP time. Last year it was easy to be hopeful, I was on the Gio bandwagon, although I wanted Falu promoted first because of his versatility.
I think our major disagreement is how to value defense. Another is how Omaha translates to Kansas City. MLEs are all well and good, but have little predictive value as they are an average of Sal Perez, who excelled against the same pitching Gio faced last fall, and Gio’s production.
I’m thinking we may see Gio in September, so he’ll have a chance again. But Tony Abreu also has a chance.
“but his defensive prowess (if you can call it that) does NOT make up for his offensive shortcomings.
That’s what we’re trying to quantify. Would be much easier if we could sneak into the Bat Cave and see the FieldF/x numbers that the Royals use and base their judgements on.
Good discussion, guys, thanks.
Jay Hall
9 months, 1 week agoJim,
I agree that defense is important. I also agree that Getz is a better defender than Giavotella. However, because Giavotella has demonstrated more power than Getz (both doubles and HR), Giavotella will almost certainly slug for quite a bit more than Getz.
Getz is competing within the Royals organization and, when comparing production, potential, offensive skills, defensive skills and cost, the break down between Getz and Giavotella is this:
Production - Getz (this year only) previously this was a dead heat, even with Gia’s struggles last year).
Potential - Giavotella (his minor league numbers and hitting pedigree suggest that he has the ability to be a much better hitter than Getz, and he’s younger, with not much ML experience).
Offense - Giavotella (it’s close, but if Gia is roughly what he was last year, the added pop makes him as good as Getz. Any better and he’s the clear choice).
Defense - Getz (for all the reasons covered above).
Cost - Giavotella (Getz is making $925,000 this year and is arb eligible. Gia is making less than $500,000 and is not yet arb eligible).
Even if Giavotella is slightly worse than Getz, the money suggests that Giavotella should get the nod in much the same way that, even if Mendoza or Smith isn’t as good as Hochevar or Guthrie, when cost is considered, if the production is similar, the choice is pretty obvious.
Basically, if Getz is going to be a 1.8 WAR player and Giavotella is going to be a 1.6 WAR player, considering cost, Gia is more valuable. Getz would need to be 25%-30% more productive than Giavotella to make up for the cost and age of the two.
Lee Judge
9 months, 1 week agoDavid Z.: You’re welcome.If your son plays first base any time he comes up the line for a bad throw and has to make the catch, then reach in to tag the runner, he should spin with the runner to prevent injury.
There are also a couple of excellent Eric Hosmer videos on shorthops and footwork that we made last season that he’d probably enjoy.
Thayne Griffin
9 months, 1 week agoThe only point I would make to the 2b discussion is about pitching. The amount of chances at 2b is affected by the style of pitchers a team has and shifts.
Kinsler’s range I would think is much higher than Getz or Gio. And according to Fangraphs, Kinsler’s is 4.1 RngR, while Getz has a 0.3. So even if he has had fewer chances/game, it’s not because he isn’t getting to balls, it’s because they aren’t hit to him. However, his errors are a bit outrageous. In all, I think the comparison between Kinsler and Getz and their amount of chances is pretty much moot.
Thayne Griffin
9 months, 1 week ago^^However, GP affect these numbers. Last year it was 10+ vs. 8+. still a difference.
Aaron Reese
9 months, 1 week agoLee, last night marked the the first time this year, I think, that the Royals rotation has gone through a cycle with less than a 3.00 ERA. I was wondering how much influence Perez’s return had on how well the Royals have pitched (overall) since his return to the lineup. Is he that good of a game-caller? I know that Eiland has worked with Hoch and Mendoza and really helped them out with sequencing and even developing pitches, but how much of an impact has Perez had?
Lee Judge
9 months, 1 week agoAaron: I’m not sure I’d credit all that to Perez, but everybody loves throwing to the guy and that doesn’t hurt.
Terry Payne
9 months, 1 week agoGoodness, what DID we all do with ourselves b/4 Bill James invented sabermetrics?
William Wolfe
9 months, 1 week agoThat’s easy—we relied on our eyes and were wrong most of the time.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 1 week agoAnd relied heavily on a complex, subjectivity laden statistic that doesn’t correlate to runs scored — batting average.