Games » Cleveland Indians
Aug1Five No. 3s
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
Luis Mendoza threw seven and a third innings and gave up two runs, the fifth quality start in his last six outings. There’s a theory floating around Kauffman Stadium that I’ve heard several times recently: Forget aces and No. 1 pitchers. Find five guys who cDan throw 200 innings and give the Royals quality starts. Find five No. 3 starters who can get you to the seventh inning with a chance to win.
It may not be the most glamorous game plan, but Mendoza did nothing to hurt the theory Wednesday night.
First inning: The Indians appeared to ambush Mendoza. When hitters think the pitcher is going to try to get ahead in the count with fastballs, they sometimes “ambush” him — swing at the first fastball they see. Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley swung at every fastball Mendoza threw for a strike. Only Choo got a hit, and the aggressive swinging meant Mendoza got out of the first inning using only 11 pitches.
In the bottom of the inning, the Royals ran a double steal with Alcides Escobar on second and Lorenzo Cain on first. The Indians catcher, Carlos Santana, rushed his throw and chucked the ball into left field, scoring Escobar. Santana got the E-2, but Zach McCallister, the Indians pitcher, was slow to the plate, and that appeared to force Santana to try make up time with a quick throw.
Cain went to third on the error, and Billy Butler drove in Lorenzo with a grounder to second. Good situational hitting: The infield was back, and Billy did not need to get a ball in the air to score Cain.
Second inning: With two, outs Chris Getz walked and stole second. Jarrod Dyson drove him in with a single. Jarrod, who had two hits and drove the ball to the center-field wall on the only out he made, told me after the game that he was getting a lot of fastballs to hit. The Indians did not want to walk him and have Jarrod put himself into scoring position with a steal.
So they pitched to him. Dyson singled, drove in Getz and then put himself in scoring position with a steal. McCallister, who has an inward turn in his delivery (kind of a coiling action in his windup that takes awhile to complete) was taking too long to get the ball to the plate, and the Royals were taking advantage. Dyson stole second even when the Indians guessed right and pitched out.
Fourth inning: With a 3-1 count, Carlos Santana hit a home run that had to be reviewed by the umpires. Kauffman Stadium has a railing behind the outfield wall, and if the ball hits that railing and comes back on the field, it can look like a double off the wall to the umpires. The brightly lit field-level scoreboards in left and right don’t make things any easier. It’s kind of like taking an eye test with the chart held up behind a neon sign from the Las Vegas Strip.
Fifth inning: The Royals didn’t do anything in the third or fourth innings, going 1-2-3 in each. But when Escobar got on in the fifth, things changed. McCallister gave up four stolen bases in the first two innings, and this time he was going to put a stop to it.
With Alcides on first and Lorenzo Cain at the plate, the Indians pitcher used a slide step (barely picking up his front foot) in order to get the ball to home plate more quickly. He also attempted six pickoffs. Whether it was the distraction of the pickoffs or the fact that a slide step can make the ball stay up in the zone, McCallister threw Cain a hittable curve even though he had Lorenzo down 1-2.
Cain doubled down the left field line, and Escobar scored from first.
Seventh inning: Mendoza was still pitching. The Indians’ aggressive hitting hadn’t worked and kept Mendoza’s pitch count low. He started the inning at 75 pitches and then issued his first walk. At this point of a game, a manager tends to watch his starter closely. If he sees any sign that the starter is tiring or having a problem, he usually will pull the plug.
Mendoza’s walk wasn’t a huge issue, it was more of a warning sign. Maybe he was starting to lose it. The Indians’ DH, Jose Lopez, then smoked a grounder that seemed headed for left field (hard-hit balls late in games are another warning sign), but Mike Moustakas dove for the ball, threw from his knees to second, Chris Getz stretched like a first baseman to stay on the bag, stepped back and threw to first to complete the double play. Afterward, manager Ned Yost called it a huge play and said it was as difficult a double play as you’ll ever see.
Mendoza went from being in trouble to being out of trouble in a single 5-4-3. (Find the video online. It’s well worth your time.)
Eighth inning: Mendoza started the inning, got an out, then gave up a double to the No. 9 hitter and was set to face the top of the order. The Indians’ lineup had already seen Luis three times, and Yost didn’t want them to have a fourth at-bat against him, so he brought in Jose Mijares. (Mijares has a hit by pitch in the scorebook this morning, but did not appear to hit Shin-Soo Choo.)
Ninth inning: Greg Holland came in for his first save of the 2012 season, and I’ve got to say it wasn’t nearly as entertaining as the average Jonathan Broxton save. Holland worked quickly and went 1-2-3. No anxiety. No drama. Just an efficient performance that got the job done.
Do your job
The Royals were doing some early work — it was absolutely smoking hot on the field — and I stopped to chat and sweat with first-base coach Doug Sisson. I asked about the team’s mood, and he had an interesting answer: “We’re not allowed to be happy. We’re not allowed to be sad.”
Baseball players can’t look too far behind or too far ahead. The only moment that matters is the next pitch. Whatever your job is on that pitch, do it. Then do it on the next one and the next one. Do it until the ballgame is over, come back the next day and do it again. I asked Doug whether he thought anyone was giving up at this point, and he started laughing. “We better not,” he said. “We’ve got 60 games to go.”
And if they do it right, they will play them one pitch at a time.
Gordo’s hat and bats
I was right, Alex Gordon is once again attempting to wear the same cap all season. The smell has gotten bad enough that he occasionally douses it with Axe body spray. (Now there’s an endorsement opportunity that’s being missed.)
Once we dealt with the all-important hat issue, we talked about breaking bats. I wanted to know if most of Gordon’s broken-bat hits went to left field. First Alex said he didn’t know, but then he thought about it and said maybe 75 percent went there.
Whatever the number, the reason Alex gets a lot of opposite-field broken bat hits is this: Pitchers often try to jam Alex. He often trys to let the ball get deep, and then he’s forcing the ball out to left field. Gordon uses a thin-handled maple bat (they’re more brittle than ash), so the combination of factors means a lot of broken-bat hits to left and left-center.
I don’t know how knowing this changes your life, but if you’re in the stands and Gordo shatters a bat on a hit to left, you can now explain why to the person next to you.
Tagging runners at the bag with Royals coach Eddie Rodriquez
Kansas City Royals coach Eddie Rodriquez demonstrates methods of tagging out runners sliding into a base, to the Star's Lee Judge. 7/19/12 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Mendoza
Cain
Dyson
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 2 weeks agoDo the Royals currently have anyone who profiles as a number three (or better) starter and can throw 200 innings?
Paulino seems to have the best stuff, but he’s been injured throughout his career. Maybe Duffy in 2014? Odorizzi maybe? Or maybe none for next year?
Going out and acquiring two front-line starters seems easier than going out and acquiring four to five innings-eating #3 starters.
Also, the Royals have only once had as many as four starters throw 200IP. That was 1987 (Saberhagen, Liebrandt, Jackson, Gubicza). In the last 10 years, we’ve had a couple years (2008, 2002) with two pitchers over 200IP, but that’s it, and since Greinke left, we’ve had nobody get to 200IP.
Brian Rose
9 months, 2 weeks agoWasn’t Mendoza pitcher of the year for aaa royals last year or something like that? He was also in some ”80s movie I think. Mellinger had a link on TT. If you were a FA pitcher would you come to the royals? Maybe if they were highest bidder, by a lot… I am guessing we have 4 5s next year but hoping for 5 4s with a solid bullpen. Doesn’t matter if hitting with risp doesn’t get better. Keeping the faith though
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 2 weeks agoWe should be able to get some help for the rotation soon, Texas would probably take Myers and Odorizzi for Roy Oswalt and Cleveland would entertain offers for Derek Lowe who, like Jeremy Guthrie, some wanted traded for last year.
I thought it a nice little game last night, been a fan of Luis for awhile, PCL pitcher of the year last year. Really enjoyed the speed, nice to see Dyson, Escobar, Cain, and Getz flying around the bases, and the DP started by Moose was a thing of beauty.
Kevin Flanagan
9 months, 2 weeks agoThe 5 #3 starters theory has merit. It is what the White Sox rode to a WS win in 2005, although an argument can be made that Buerle was a #2.
Defining exactly what a #3 pitcher is somewhat subjective. To me, it means a league average starter, a guy who puts up a 4.00 - 4.25 ERA.
I think with 5 of those guys combined with a good bullpen, good defense, and above average offense, the Royals could certainly compete.
However, even with Mendoza’s recent run of excellent starts he is still just outside the definition of a #3 and no one else is even close.
Paulino and Duffy would qualify if healthy. Maybe Odorizzi can.
Chen and Hochevar have the upside of a #3, but you see what happens to these guys in a down year. Which is the flaw in the theory. Its hard to get 5 average guys in a rotation to all have career years, although again this is what the Chisox did in 2005.
Terry Payne
9 months, 2 weeks agoBreak up the Royals!!
Solid starting pitching, efficient bullpen work, timely hitting, aggressive baserunning, sterling defense. This was the MO of the classic mid-late 70s team.
Re: no 1 pitchers - during the season, you’d ideally like to see them once in crucial series and you’d definitely want them to give you the most innings. But a no 1 starter is most crucial in the post-season, where dominant pitching is the key in a short series.
Right now, Royals need to concentrate on solid starting pitching. I believe they have the bullpen to make up for lack of dominant pitching. Besides, if Glass is dipping into operational funds to pay payroll taxes, what does that tell you about his willingness to go out and buy a frontline starter?
Jeff Frost
9 months, 2 weeks agoLee, I’d say 150 innings pitched is the new 200. If we could get 5 pitchers to get 150-175, I’d be happy. What KILLS them is when they have 100 pitches by the 5th inning! If they can get to where they throw strikes, use their defense, and trust Kauffman, they will be better. I think Mendoza is a horse. Paulino will hopefully come back by 2014 and be able to go 175-200. Hoch, say what you want, but he can eat innings. We now have to get Teaford, Odorizzi up to that point. I see Duffy being slow to get back to even 150 innings.
I like this lineup, though, with the season lost, I think it is time to give Gio a long, consistent, hard look! Getz is a pro, but Gio can flat out hit. Let him work through this! Everybody said Moose’s biggest liability would be his defense. To me, he is Gold Glove, other than when he tries to throw 110 mph to first. Also, Dyson is doing well, but let’s get Myers feet wet now! I think Ned maybe is sending a message to DM that if I’m getting fired, I’m going down with MY team! That means people not producing- ala Frenchy, aren’t playing. This is a big step, because if they are thinking of trading Frenchy on a waiver-wire trade, if he’s not playing, he’s going to have no takers. Basically, $7 million on the bench!
Lastly, I hope Guthrie pitches strong the rest of the year. He could be a 200 inning guy! If we get them to the 7th, our pen is usually pretty reliable. Especially feel better with Broxton gone, statistics and save % be damned!
Josh Heer
9 months, 2 weeks agoJim F. Is that an attempted shot at the cool kids? I hope so, because anyone in the right mind asking for that trade, well can’t be in their right mind. Wil and Jake being traded should and would get a Zach Grienkie or Cole Hamels type of pitcher. While I think you can make a run at the playoffs with five number threes, to compete and win a world series requires an ace. 2011 Cardinals- Carpenter 2010 Giants- Lincecum 2009 Yankees- Sabathia 2008 Phillies- Halladay 2007- Red Sox- Becket If we really want to compete and say we will spend money let’s go out and try and get a Grienkie and maybe even a number 2 guy
Jeff Frost
9 months, 2 weeks agoAMEN Josh! Oswalt for Myers??? Sounds like a Hearn for Cone trade!
Jay Hall
9 months, 2 weeks agoFive number threes is nice if you have five legitimate number three starters. There is no evidence that Luis Mendoza is a major league number three starter. He’s had a strong string of starts recently, but that doesn’t make him a number three.
The mistake GMDM made last year was assuming that Luke Hochevar would continue to perform at his second half level rather than regress back to his previous form. Penciling Luke in as a #3 (when he’s really a #4 or #5 on a playoff team) made him less aggressive in the FA market IMO. He assumed that Bruce Chen would continue to keep hitters just off balance enough to maintain a lower than average BABIP and keep his home runs per fly ball down, so he signed him to a 2 year deal. Both of those moves didn’t work out. Chen and Hochevar have both been inconsistent and, on the whole, slightly below average pitchers.
Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself. Mendoza has done a solid job here in the second half. He’s cost controlled, so he definitely deserves a shot at a spot in the rotation. But if GMDM doesn’t have 3 pitchers better than Luis Mendoza in his rotation at the start of next year (at least two from outside the organization with proven MLB track records) then another subpar season should be his last.
Jay Hall
9 months, 2 weeks agoJeff,
150 IP in a season comes out to about 5 IP start for a 30 start season. That’s not going to get it done. If not for the fact that the Royals have used 137 different SP this year, that’s about where they would be at. To make things easier on the bullpen you need your starters to be at least at 170 IP (5 2/3 IP per start), preferably up over 185 IP (a little over 6 IP per start), with at least 1 starter breaking that 200 mark (6 2/3 per start).
Ideally your best starter is at 200 IP, followed by a couple of 185 guys, a 170 guy and a 150 guy. There are about 1450 innings in a season not counting extra innings. Move that number up to 1475 to account for that. If you had the rotation I outlined in this paragraph, that would mean your core starting rotation would throw between 875 and 900 innings, leaving 550 to 600 innings for the bullpen.
John Kessler
9 months, 2 weeks agoJay I am going to disagree on why the Royals weren’t aggressive in the free agent market, there just really wasn’t much there. Plus part of this season was to see if we had pretenders or winners in the rotation with guys like Paulino, Mendoz, Hochevar, Duffy etc. This off season, there area lot more free agent pitchers, I think the Royals had their eyes on this upcoming offseason even last offseason.
Luke Healy
9 months, 2 weeks agoI agree that 5 number 3 starters would be great. Heck, at this point I’d take two number 3s and a couple 4s—but that’s more a sign of the brutal results of the majority of this year. Mendoza has been better lately, but often depends on having a low pitch count. His effectiveness really slips as his pitch count elevates over 80. With our bullpen that’s not the end of the world, but you can only have 1 or 2 starters like that.
I also agree with a couple comments that you need a number 1 to compete in the postseason. This year has been sort of a strange anomaly in multiple number 1 type pitchers having bad years I think, but that doesn’t mean you should go after them. At this point though I would say we worry about winning in the postseason after we can actually get to postseason. If we are able to get there then we will have a better opportunity to actually go out and sign a legitimate number 1. Until we prove we can do a little actual winning there are very few reasons a number 1 would want to come here (and even fewer with the number of dollars in our payroll).
Josh Heer
9 months, 2 weeks agoHonest question what is our payroll this year? 35 million? If so an we increase our payroll to around 70 million, that’s 35 million to spend on starting pitching. Why not attempt to spend 25 million for an ace, and if we can dump Frenchy and his contract somewhere else, we would still have around 15 million for a number 2 starter. Why not?
John Wilson
9 months, 2 weeks agoI’m excited. We’re coming up from Springfield MO for our annual trek to Kaufmann Stadium. Here is hoping for a quality start from Chen tonight! We’ll be in the Frenchy Quarter so we are kind of hoping Frenchy plays tonight.
Jeff Frost
9 months, 2 weeks agoFirst- Josh, nobody is going to eat Frenchy’s salary. The Royals would have to eat at least half, or $3.5 million.
Second- in Jay, great points. I went back and looked at some Royal greats thru the years. Here are the numbers from lowest to highest innings pitched, in many cases, even after surgery on their arm. (Sabes, Appier, Gubicza, and Leo’s knee) Rich Gale- 180-200 innings Larry Gura- 220-280 innings Saberhagen- 230-260 innings Gubicza- 190-270 innings Leonard- 212-290 innings Splitt- 216-260 innings Appier- 185-235 innings
STRETCH THEM OUT!!! I think the biggest killer, again, is when they have 100 pitches in 5-innings!! Throw strikes, trust your GREAT defense, use the K, as in Kauffman!
Terry Payne
9 months, 2 weeks agoMaybe we should listen to Nolan Ryan, who challenges his pitchers to go deeper in games. He thinks today’s pitchers are being babied.
Read a piece in SPorts Illustrated a few years back that tried to analyzed whether pitchers should be “stretched out” or coddled. The piece’s conclusion: It’s anybody’s guess. There doesn’t seem to be anything close to a simple solution.
John Wilson
9 months, 2 weeks agoOh yeah.. and my wife and I will get to see our legacy bricks! And a Royals’ sweep! (One can dream)
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 2 weeks agoCleveland just DFA’d Lowe, and Oswalt is on a one-year contract. There’s no need to trade anything to get them. Plus, neither of them is close to a number 3 starter who can throw 200 IP.
Paulino’s career high in IP in 139. He’ll have a half season next year. I don’t see him over 160IP until 2015 at the earliest.
Five #3 starters who can throw 180-200 IP might work, but it means bringing in a completely new starting rotation. If people think there wasn’t enough on the FA market last year to get one pitcher, we’re never going to be able to get five this year.
Jeff Frost
9 months, 2 weeks agoTerry- great article. My point would be, why coddle? All that has gotten us is four Tommy John’s and no consistent pitching, especially at the #1, 2, or 3 levels.
You build arm strength BY throwing. (You build muscles by lifting?? Right???) Let’s throw! Implement long-toss regiments and let them stretch out to more innings.
You say it is inconclusive, but look at what the Royals pitchers of the 1970s and 80s did- all 200-280 innings each year! I think the more you throw, the better. Don’t coddle them, especially in the minors. Look at Verlander- he isn’t afraid to throw 125 pitches a game. Ryan threw 300+ innings over 15 times and had games where he threw over an amazing 150 pitches. Again, just like lifting to get stronger, to build the muscle- your arm, you use it and build strength. Play catch and use long-toss!
Terry Payne
9 months, 2 weeks agoJeff - I personally agree with you completely.
However, the article said there was no ;proof that long tossing and building muscle necessarily accomplished anything, because the stress on the elbow by throwing breaking pitches could cause a blowout of the ulnar nerve(?) at any point. Plus, there was seldom any indicator of stress causing ANYthing to give at any particular time. In other words, in most situations, most of the time something just “gave.”
Jim Wilson
9 months, 2 weeks agoJosh, we have nowhere near that much to spend. There’s a good article at Royals Review today on the current and future payroll situation. If your hope is that we will solve our problems through free agency, the article will disappoint you. And you can get better production from a player at the ML minimum salary so no one’s going to take Frenchy’s contract off our hands.
Jeff Frost
9 months, 2 weeks agoAgreed- the bottom-line is pitching is the most violent action in sports, so they say. (Though, I’m not sure I’d like Ray Lewis to tackle me, or Tyson to punch me)
With that said, if it is a violent action and people will break down because of it, you don’t know who they will be, so stretch them out and let them pitch. This is Darwin at work! Survival of the Fittest! It’s Karma, or fate, when injuries occur.
I think MLB teams take the exact opposite approach I would. If I’m paying these guys millions, I’m going to get the most out of them and not coddle, instead of 5-innings, or 70 pitches. If it is meant to be, it will happen, if not, they will have a nice 15 year career and still make their millions. Plus, as good as the ulnar surgery is today, pitchers actually come back better!
Just the thoughts of a person that KNOWS the Royals need more out of their pitchers!
Sam Miles
9 months, 2 weeks agoKind of a lazy Thursday here, so I’ve been kicking around a hypothetical.
Imagine you have two players - let’s say second basemen - who are the same age, with the same contracts. They run the same speed and have the same defensive rep.
Player A has a line of .300/.360/.450 and is just considered an average guy, neutral personality, and has average baseball IQ.
Player B has a line of .280/.330/.400, but has Jeff Francouer’s personality, Derek Jeter’s gravitas, does each and every little thing right, and is considered to be an extremely heads up player and a great leader.
For this Royals team: 1) who would you rather have and, 2) honestly, which do you think Moore/Yost would rather have.
It’s not an important hypothetical, obviously, I’m just curious as to how much importance we/they would rate intangibles. Like I said…kind of a slow Thursday.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 2 weeks agoIt could be suggested that many “intangibles” are just a matter of not having a study done yet to quantify them. I think the FO would prefer the first example, ceteris paribus, but probably wouldn’t make a trade or FA signing for that small an upgrade on stat line.
You used the word “gravitas”: My respect, Sam.
Sam Miles
9 months, 2 weeks agoJim -
I would certainly agree with you on the lack of study, but I think if it were easy to suss out, we wouldn’t call them intangibles.
I bring it up because this site talks a lot about baseball IQ and doing the little things, which is fantastic. That said, I think that the front office is perhaps too concerned with themcome evaluation time. Sure, once you’ve got the guys, teach them what you want, but prior to that, just get the best player.
I could be mistaken - I’m not bothering to justify it - just an observation. I agree entirely with your take on what KC would do.
Joel Kallem
9 months, 2 weeks agoA lot of talk about just going out and signing free agent pitchers as though it was something we could do without their cooperation. For all those proposing this as the simple solution: 1) What makes you think a #1 wants to come to the Royals at this point in their development? 2) What makes you think other teams won’t offer as much as the Royals in salary? 3) What makes you so sure that a #1 will continue to be a #1 if we do get him signed (we will be taking on a 5-7 year obligation to get such a pitcher)? - look at all the injuries and fall-offs from what looked like top pitchers this year.
The fact is there is no easy answer to find pitching - luck is a big part of it. Yes, if we think there is a pitcher on the market we can get who will fit in at some affordable (whatever that means) price, we should make an offer. But if you look at baseball in general, the #1’s usually come up through the team’s system and we need to continue to emphasize that approach.
Sam Miles
9 months, 2 weeks agoAdditionally, and to the grab-five-number-three’s point…
For the Royals, or any team with a limited budget, I suppose it’s an idea. The cost for No. 1’s is prohibitive and, since our farm system has none to give (if you consider Montgomery toast and Odorizzi more of a 2/3), it might be our only option.
That said, if they’re going to do it, they might want to get started. If we’re talking league average starter as a three…a 4-4.25 ERA guy…the Royals have none of those right now.
Bruce Chen: At his best, a 3. Luke Hochevar: Tough to label, but too inconsistent for a 3. Jeremy Guthrie: Right now a 7, but in a perfect world, sure. Mazzaro/Teaford/Will Smith: Back end fodder.
Paulino and Duffy could be good 3’s or they might not, but it will be the end of 2013 before we get to try and find out again.
Lou Mendoza, oddly enough, might be our lone three, on the off chance he can keep it up. It’s a big if, but he’s definitely got everyone’s attention.
So, if we’re selling contending in 2013 down the river - which, barring the addition of two good starters, we may as well - 2014 could be workable for this 5/3’s plan.
I’d love to see us shoot a little higher, though.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 2 weeks agoSam -
I don’t believe that intangibles are worthless, but the first player’s tangibles are so much better than the second player that I can’t believe even the Royals would pick the second player.
Setting aside the fact that the second player would likely bat higher in the order and get more plate appearances, the difference between the two is 12 hits, 6 walks, and 18 extra-base hits. Basically an extra base runner and an extra extra-base hit almost every week of the season.
Or, put another way, if the two are equal on defense and on the base paths, we’d expect the first player to be worth in the neighborhood of two extra wins a year.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 2 weeks agoI may be alone in this, but for a quick and dirty ranking of pitchers I use fangraphs’ pitching leaders, 30 per page. A guy on the first page is a #1, second page #2, and so on. At the moment, page three reaches from 0.7 fWAR, Jason Vargas, to f1.7, Bronson Arroyo, and includes Luke Hochevar, Ivan Nova, Matt Garza, Dan Haran, and Edwin Jackson. Luis Mendoza is at f1.2, with Matt Moore and Johan Santana, but without enough starts to qualify, so that gives us three in the #3 range. Felipe Paulino is at 0.9.
Baseball Reference ranks differently, so the results will be quite a bit different over there, as Brendan pointed out some months back.
I’ve been kicking around the idea that quality start percentage might be useful, a #1 starter giving four of five, a #2 three of five, a #3 two and a half of five, a #4 two of five, then everyone else. As I recall, Justin Verlander has given up five runs four times of so, out of twenty-three starts that’s a clear #1. Maybe we could consider an ace nine of ten.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 2 weeks agoThere are only 101 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the fangraphs leaders page. So every qualified pitcher is going to show up as at least a number 4, even if they’ve been terrible. That method does not work.
If you limit the fangraphs page to starters drop the innings minimum enough to get at least 150 pitchers (50 IP), you can actually get a #1 through #5, here’s how the Royals stack up by fWAR: 67.Hochevar 98.Mendoza 103.Chen 156.Guthrie 157.Sanchez (out of 157 pitchers with at lesat 50IP as a starter)
So, by fWAR, we’ve got a #3, two #4s and a #5s. Paulino only had 36 1/3 IP, so he doesn’t make the list.
By ERA, the list looks worse: 87.Mendoza 129.Hochevar 138.Chen 155.Guthrie 157.Sanchez
So, by ERA, we’ve got a borderline #3/#4 and three #5s.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 2 weeks agoFair enough.
Sam Miles
9 months, 2 weeks agoJim -
I worry that that’s just a little too quick and dirty for my tastes, and it stems from the fact that there are very few “No.1” caliber starters in the majors. It’s a bit counter intuitive, but there are tons more 5’s than 1’s.
Additionally, we’re going off a single half year of stats to rate guys, which obviously doesn’t work for any number of reasons. I think you could look at the leaderboard as a guide, but past and expected future performance would have to be considered.
Hochevar, for example, has always underperformed relative to his peripherals, to the extent that we should probably expect it. If you gave all 30 GMs a shot to have Hochevar as their No. 3, I’d bet you wouldn’t get many bites.
Regardless of if you’d want to argue for Hochevar, or perhaps Mendoza or Chen, the Royals are at least Odorizzi+three other pitchers from having 5 No. 3’s for next season. 2014 perhaps, but 2013 looks a little like 2012.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 2 weeks agoNot arguing for anyone, just offering a quick reading from one of the stat sites that is handy for comparing names. I found it interesting that Hochevar had the company he had, including an $11 million NL pitcher that many thought we should have signed. Chen is in the neighborhood with Edinson Volquez and Gavin Floyd and quite a bit ahead of Jason Vargas.
As for the time frame, bigger can be better, but as volatile as pitchers’ health and mechanics are, smaller may be more accurate.
As for Hoch, his averages and aggregates underperformed while for any given game he could be dominant. Depending on the game he is a #1 or a #6. His Game Scores charts capture that nicely while an average doesn’t. His chart also does a better job of showing what he is doing now, his trends, same with Mendoza. If the primary concern is the game tonight, then trends and ranges give more predictive information than career or even yearly averages will.
Agree that ‘13 looks like ‘12, as Duffy and Paulino won’t be back for awhile, but Odorizzi and even Lamb may be up, maybe even Yordano. Under those circumstances, hiring a couple of FA’s that will hold the line, then can later be traded for prospects looks the best deal.
Jeff Frost
9 months, 2 weeks agoWow Brendan- with that much talent on the starting staff, and we aren’t winning?? Hard to believe!
What would happen if you took Paulino’s numbers and multiplied them enough to give him enough innings to qualify? What would he be??? I know that is too small a sample size to consider, but just wondering.
All I know is Mendoza has potential to move up. Numbers very comparable to Gubicza as a rookie. Hoch has had enough time to prove himself, so he is what he is. But we have no choice, because we need his 3 good starts out of five.
BTW- tangibles do count to me! I think Jose Guillen is a prime example where numbers don’t matter!
William Wolfe
9 months, 2 weeks agoUm, Jose Guillen sucked. So the numbers mattered then too.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 2 weeks agoPaulino was performing as a #1 since he went into the Royals’ rotation last year. All three systems agreed he was a stud.
Thayne Griffin
9 months, 2 weeks agoWho thinks we’ll put in a claim since Cliff Lee is on waivers????? XD Although we’ll never pull off a trade.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 2 weeks agoOver the past two seasons combined, Paulino has only managed to throw 158 innings.
There are 141 pitchers with at least 150 IP as a starter in that time. Among them, Paulino ranks:
75th in WAR (this is a counting stat, so his inability to stay healthy hurts him here)
32nd in FIP (fielding-independent pitching)
40th in ERA
I’m very excited about Paulino (not just because his success has shown the Royals what stat-based scouting can accomplish) and I think he’s the best pitcher on the team, but I don’t think it’s accurate to describe him as performing as a #1 starter. He’s been about at the level of a good #2 like Anibal Sanchez or Shawn Marcum (both of whom the Royals should target this offseason).
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 2 weeks agoJust adding up his WARs and prorating over 30 starts. Last year he was at 2.6 on 20 games, so 3.9 on 30 was reasonable. His starts this year were consistent with that thought. 3.9 on 30 put him on the front page last year and probably this year also.
Sanchez looks interesting, but I expect his new team to make a big effort to keep him. Marcum has possibilities but he’s also had some injuries. What would be a reasonable price on them? I figure the Royals could spend $30-$35 mil this winter if they think it will win some title or another.
Terry Payne
9 months, 2 weeks agoThe bottom line re: a pitcher’s numbers are that they are like the vice-president’s job -neither one is necessarily worth a warm bucket of spit. It’s what the individual does in any given moment that counts.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 2 weeks agoIf you’re going to scale up Paulino’s stats to 30 starts, you have to do that with everyone else’s too if you want a valid comparison.
Since fWAR is based directly on FIP, you can look at that to get a rate-state version of fWAR. By FIP, Paulino was 44th of the 150 pitchers with at least 80 IP as a starter in 2011.
Terry Payne
9 months, 2 weeks agoAll the stats in the world guarantee nothing.
Ask Steve Blass.
Ask Rick Ankiel.
For that matter, ask Warren Spahn, a ne’er do all that well into his 30’s, then a HOF career after serving his country in WWII.
Ask Hoyt Wilhelm about his knuckeball.
The point? Baseball teases us. We never can predict where the next athletic, or managerial genius will come from. And if we think we can, stats or no stats, we are just kidding ourselves.
So why not just sit back and enjoy the show?
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 2 weeks agoTerry -
Nobody can know the future, but I’ll bet a lot of money that we’ll do better next year if we add some pitchers with better career records than the guys we have.
There’s a difference between not knowing everything and not knowing anything.