Games: Seattle Mariners, July 28: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Seattle Mariners

Jul28

Beating yourself

Poor fundamentals cost the Royals this ballgame. The winning run was scored because a leadoff batter was walked, a stolen base was allowed (possibly through inattention) and a sacrifice bunt was mishandled. The Mariners scored what proved to be the winning run without benefit of a hit. It’s one thing to get beaten by your opponent. It’s quite another to beat yourself.

First inning: With one down, Alcides Escobar drops a bunt for a hit and moves into scoring position on an error by the third baseman, Kyle Seager. That pays off when Billy Butler singles and Escobar scores. Seattle starter Kevin Millwood gets all three outs on strikeouts looking. That might suggest good movement on Millwood’s pitches, but the Royals appear to have another theory: bad umpiring.

In the bottom of the inning Mike Moustakas makes a diving stop down the third base line. Throwing from his knees, Moose does not get an out. But Mike’s stop means the batter, Casper Wells, is on first base, not second. Not every great defensive play gets an out. Some save a base.

Before the inning is over, Jordan Baker, a minor-league umpire filling in behind home plate, yells at the Royals dugout. Apparently, the Royals have been chirping about the strike zone and Baker tells them to cool it. New umpires sometimes try to demand respect instead of earning it.

With Wells on first base and Jesus Montero at the plate, Brayan Pena blocks a slider in the dirt. Montero singles. Pena’s block and Moustakas’ play at third mean Wells ends the inning standing on second base instead of being in the dugout after scoring a run.

Second inning: The Royals have two lineouts in the top of the inning. That may be bad luck for the Royals or good positioning by the Mariners, but when you’re losing, it always seems like it’s one or the other.

Mike Moustakas is out of the game (right knee sprain, day to day). Yuniesky Betancourt has moved from second base to third and Chris Getz has come off the bench to play second. With two down, Getz makes an error and that costs Bruce Chen nine more pitches in the inning.

Third inning: With two down and a runner on first, Bruce Chen tries to get inside on the right-handed hitter Montero. Part of Chen’s success comes from his ability to run his cutter in on right-handed batters’ hands. But when Chen doesn’t get the cutter far enough inside, righties can get the bat head out and do some damage. Chen doesn’t, Montero does and the Seattle DH hits a two-run home run.

Still with two outs, Kyle Seager hits a fly ball to left field and Alex Gordon, battling the sun, lets the ball drop for a double. Gordon, normally so good at playing balls in the sun, turns sideways and goes to one knee in an effort to get a new background behind the ball. Neither trick works and Seager scores when Miguel Olivo singles. Mariners up 3-1.

Fourth inning: Billy Butler singles and Brayan Pena walks. Jeff Francoeur, at the plate with two outs, works the count to 3-2. This is a semi-big deal because it will allow Butler to take off from second base with the pitch. Billy, not the fleetest of runners (which is a polite way of saying he’s slow), needs the jump. Francoeur gets a fastball on the outer half, but instead of driving it to right, Frenchy hooks it to short and an easy 6-3 ends the inning.

In the bottom of the inning, Trayvon Robinson leads off with a single. Brendan Ryan tries to sacrifice bunt, but can’t get a pitch in the zone. Chen walks him. Ryan wanted to give the Royals an out in exchange for moving Robinson into scoring position. Ryan didn’t have to make a sacrifice. Chen’s walk moved Robinson to second without getting an out.

This is the kind of basic mistake scuffling teams can’t afford. The Royals, short on money and talent, need to play smart, mistake-free baseball. The Boston Red Sox could afford to have Manny Ramirez miss the cutoff man because Manny was going to hit a three-run home later. The Royals don’t have that luxury…their players have to hit the cutoff man. The Royals players probably won’t make up for mental errors with physical talent.

Fifth inning: The third inning in the game in which the Royals go down 1-2-3. They may be losing, but they’re doing it quickly. (Only someone that has to watch every game can appreciate that.)

In the bottom of the inning, Bruce Chen gets two outs on two pitches. Kyle Seager then takes two strikes. Seager may have been talked to after Friday night. In that game, with Luis Mendoza on the mound, Casper Wells and John Jaso made two outs on three pitches and Seager took a hack at the first thing he saw. Someone may have told Seager he needed to take a pitch or two when that happens. Seager eventually lines out in the inning but may have become a better ballplayer in the process.

Sixth inning: Billy Butler gets his third hit of the game. It’s probably no coincidence that Butler’s hitting the ball to right field. While the rest of the team is struggling during this road trip, Butler has had 10 hits, three pulled and seven up the middle or to right.

Before I met Jeff Francoeur for the first time, I asked Clint Hurdle if he had any message for Frenchy. (Clint was Jeff’s hitting instructor in Texas). Clint told me to tell Jeff that “RCF is the key.” In English that means set your sights on right center field and then adjust in.

Seventh inning: Brayan Pena singles and then tries to stretch a single into double with nobody out. The ball got away from right fielder Casper Wells, but not far enough away. The base running rule of thumb is to take no chances with no outs. With two outs, Pena’s play might make sense—depending on the situation. With no outs, it’s a mistake.

Francoeur then goes the other way for a single and Mariners manager Eric Wedge brings in a lefty from the pen to face Eric Hosmer. Hosmer, who hit the ball hard all day with one single to show for it, grounds into a 1-6-3 double play to end the inning.

In the bottom of the inning Kelvin Herrera replaces Bruce Chen. Ned Yost has used this pitcher sequence before: the soft-throwing left-hander Chen, followed by the flame-throwing right-hander Herrera. Kelvin goes 1-2-3.

Eighth inning: Gordon hits his 34th double, which leads the league. Escobar triples, driving Alex in and, with one out and the tying run on third, Chris Getz grounds out to second base. The infield was in and the Royals did not appear to have the contact play on. Butler is intentionally walked—ignoring the “never put the winning run on base” rule—and Betancourt grounds out to end the inning. Mariners 3, Royals 2.

Lefty Jose Mijares comes in to face the left-handed Michael Saunders and makes one of the most basic mistakes in baseball: Mijares walks the leadoff hitter. Mijares compounds the mistake by appearing to fall asleep and allowing Saunders to steal second. With first open, Mijares works around Montero and walks him as well.

Once again, the Mariners try to give the Royals an out and the Royals refuse to accept the gift. Kyle Seager bunts, Mijares picks up the ball, bobbles it and then tries to go to third instead of taking the easier out at first. Bases loaded, nobody out and Greg Holland comes in. Holland entered the game with 54 strikeouts in 37 and two-thirds innings. If Holland can strike out John Jaso (pinch hitting for Miguel Olivo), the Royals are a double play away from getting out of the mess Mijares created.

Instead, Holland gets a force-out at the plate and the runners move up. Bases still loaded, one down. Then, needing a double play ball, Holland instead has the ball hit to the outfield by Ryan Carp. Carp’s sacrifice fly scores what will prove to be the winning run. The Mariners get the run they need without benefit of a hit.

Ninth inning: The Royals add a run in the ninth, but the early mistakes prove to be too much. Mariners win, 4-3.

Developing players

If Ned Yost disagrees with some of the recent bunt attempts by Alcides Escobar, why doesn’t he stop him?

I don’t know for sure, but I can take a semi-educated guess.

The Royals want their ballplayers to be focused while on the field. If every bunt is signaled from the dugout, it’s easy for a player to mentally tune out. Why pay attention to the third baseman’s positioning or the thickness of the infield grass? The bench will tell you when to bunt.

The same goes for the green light on a stolen base. The Royals want their players thinking about the footing, their jump and whether they’re getting a good read on the pitcher’s move to first. First base coach Doug Sisson supplies them with the pitcher’s delivery time, the runner knows what he can beat and it’s up to him to decide whether he can make it.

Sisson doesn’t even yell “back” when the pitcher tries a pickoff at first. By the time Doug recognizes what’s happening and yells back and the runner reacts to Doug’s warning, the runner will be out. If the runner knows it’s up to him to watch the pitcher, he shouldn’t fall asleep 12 feet from first base.

So why all the player autonomy?

Well, the Royals do have “no go” and a “must steal” signs if they need them. They can also call specifically for a bunt. With a runner on second and nobody out, they can signal the hitter to “drive him in” or “move him over.” If the hitter gets the move him over sign, it’s up to him how he does it. If he thinks he’s got a good chance of hitting the ball to the right side, the hitter can do it that way. If he thinks a bunt is a better bet, he can lay one down. If Alcides Escobar thinks he can bunt for a single and move the runner, he can try that.

But they’re putting a lot of responsibility on young players for a reason: They want them to develop. What we’re seeing is a young team sometimes making mistakes on the base paths and at the plate. The Texas Rangers and the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone through the same learning curve. They also made a lot of mistakes in order to develop the players that now appear headed to the playoffs.

Clearly, the Kansas City Royals are a long way from the playoffs—this year. But they hope to be there soon and when they get there, they want players who are ready. Unfortunately, the only way to get them ready for the future is to watch them make mistakes now.

Comments

Curtis Ruder
10 months, 3 weeks ago

That they would be willing to put the winning run on to face Betancourt tells us all we need to know about how poor a hitter Betancourt is. I know he had a nice run of RBI for a while, but that he ever escaped a utility role for this team is one of the greatest indictments of the season.

It is easy to kick sand in their faces right now because they are playing poorly. There have been some positives to the season. I am not as negative as my comments have been the last week or so. But nor were they ever as good as those who were starting to look at the standings.
Terry Payne
10 months, 3 weeks ago

I think Yuni B is a good example of a hitter who gets himself out more than pitchers get him out.
Aaron Cooper
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Man, I wonder why Ned Yost was fired right before the Brewers made the playoffs? Man, I just can’t figure it out!!!!!

Lee, you sure do write an awful lot about the mistakes and poor fundamentals that cause a lot of our losing. The Royals have been making mistakes and playing poor fundamental baseball during every single year of DM’s tenure. Maybe it’s time to stop only talking about the players and start talking about the GM and manager who keep putting those players on the field.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Aaron, there are many other sites that that is about all that they talk about, without making any attempt at insight into what happens on the dirt. That’s that niche thing I mention. This site is unique in the market for its concentration on the actual game rather than the surrounding politics.

As for Yost and the Brewers, I drop by some Brewer blogs and Ned Yost looks a lot better in hindsight to them. Every team it seems has fans who think their manager is an idiot.

As for the players on the field, we’re to the point that we have a couple of under achievers on the field rather than eight of them in earlier years. Looks like progress to me.

For all the angst, Yuni and Frenchy aren’t single-handedly losing games right now, just about everybody but Big Bill is contributing to the losses. Don’t know if that’s youth or what, but I would remind that the year before Tampa won 97 games they won 66, a year in which they had Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, James Shields, Scott Kazmir, and Edwin Jackson. Crawford was 25, Upton 22, Shields 25, Kazmir 23, Jackson 23.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Every day I write about the mistakes the Royals make (nobody plays the game perfectly), and every day I write about the good things they do (every team does some things right).

Some days the failures outweigh the successes and the Royals come out on the short end of the scoreboard, but it’s always a blend of good and bad, every single day, every single game.

Noting the good and the bad helps fans understand what they’re seeing. Explaining what went right or wrong in one situation helps fans recognize what goes right or wrong in future situations.

Insisting on seeing things in terms of black and white isn’t very helpful, if you’re actually trying to understand the team. If you have no use for complexity and nuance and just want to hate on the GM and manager, seeing things in black and white is quite useful.

I’ve been watching the Royals consistently (say 100 games a year) since 1981. I’ve been watching every pitch of every inning of every game for the past two and a half years.

In terms of fundamentals, the Royals have improved dramatically under Ned Yost. Despite his reputation for fundamentals, in my opinion, the Royals played poor fundamental baseball under Trey Hillman. I’d say that was part of why he got fired, but it’s rare that all the issues involved are made public.

Anyone who thinks they know why someone else got fired probably doesn’t know what he’s talking about…but that doesn’t stop people from talking.

I was there the night the Royals won a World Series and I’ve been there when they’ve hit bottom. There’s no doubt in my mind that this team is improving.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to the playoffs or people should order their Series tickets, but this is a much more talented team than has been on the field in the recent past.

And every basebaseball professional I’ve talked to agrees.
Charles Purvis
10 months, 3 weeks ago

I think the Royals coaches (and thus, the batters) are far too focused on ‘running up the pitch count’ on the opposing pitcher than they are of hitting good pitches when they see them. I can’t count the number of times I’ve watched a Royals batter stand there with bat on shoulder watching good pitches go by, only to strike out on something in the dirt.

They are also bullpen happy. Why pull Herrera when he had a 1-2-3 inning? He’s on a roll! But no, got to go with that lefty vs. lefty percentage. See how well it worked out?

Lee, you mention that the Royals ‘have to hit the cutoff man’ yet I believe I read in your blog that the Royals outfielders don’t even throw at the cutoff man, that it’s his responsibility to get in a position to cut it off, not the outfielder’s.

I also disagree with your statement that the Royals are ‘short on money and talent.’ Defensively (with the exception of starting pitching) they are very talented. Hitting is what they’re lacking and a good hitting coach might fix that (see comment above about taking good pitches).
Larry Tindle
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Charles, the comment on hitting the cut off man is they need to throw it low enough so the cut off man can cut it of, not airmail it over his head. Thus allowing the back runner to take an extra base. If you keep it low the back runner has to hold up, throw it high over the head of the cutt off man and they can easily go to second on a throw to third.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Charles: What Larry said. The outfielders throw to the bases, but must throw low enough so the ball can be cut off. When I say they missed the cutoff man I mean the ball was 10 feet over his head.

Herrera was pulled (probably) because if he throws two innings in a game the team was losing, you lose him for today. Also, Mijares has been generally been lights out against lefties this season. Had Ned left Kelvin in and the Royals lost the game, people would be screaming about not bringing in the situational lefty who’s been so good all season.

Unfortunately for Yost, he’s got to make those decisions before he knows how they’ll work out that day.

I agree with you that the Royals are very talented on defense, but my point was they can’t afford to give away two runs on defense and assume they’ll hit a three-run home run to make up for it. They need to play smart baseball all the time.

The payroll speaks for itself. They’ve spent more on some long-term contracts, but they can’t compete with the Yankees and Angels and the TV money those types of teams have.

Finally, the complaint that the Royals are taking too many pitches is only outweighed by the complaints that the Royals don’t take enough pitches.

The goal is to be “selectively aggressive” (hit what’s in your zone and lay off what’s out of it) so unless fans know if the hitter is looking away or inside, they couldn’t know what pitches the hitter should go after.

If we’re talking about hitting with two strikes, I’d agree—the Royals need to be aggressive on anything close.

(Although I’ve also heard a decent argument about why that’s wrong.)
Aaron Cooper
10 months, 3 weeks ago
1. I don’t “want” to hate our GM. I hate our GM because he consistently makes awful moves, refuses to learn from his mistakes, and is delivering his 6th straight non-competitive team in one of the easiest divisions in baseball.
2. Great, this team is more talented than the 100 Royal teams of the past. Guess what? So is every single other major league team in the game, outside of the Astros. Dayton’s job isn’t to have a better record than Allard Baird. His job it to have a better record than other GMs currently in the game.
3. Yost got fired in Milwaukee because he made boneheaded decisions after boneheaded decision during the Brewers playoff run and the people in charge there (smartly) realized that Yost was costing them games. He was fired because he is a very poor manager. He’ll be fired for the same reason in KC, probably at the same time Dayton is fired.
This is major league baseball, not a high school or college program. It’s about wins and losses and that’s it. Giving praise for Dayton improving our current team compared to one of the worst teams in the history of the game (the mid-2000 Royals) is ludicrous. DM isn’t competing against Baird, he’s competing against the other GMs currently in the game.
Charles Purvis
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Yeah, but…

The run scored in the cobbled up mess of an 8th inning proved to be the winning run.

At some point Yost needs to think about winning the 1-run game in play right in front of him, instead of who is going to pitch tomorrow. That is akin to worrying about four moves in advance in chess when you’re getting eaten up by the play you just made.

It just seems to me that Ned is worrying about details that maybe win a good, experienced, winning coach three or four games a year but piling up 12-out-of-14 losing streaks while doing so.
Jeff Frost
10 months, 3 weeks ago

BE NICE- Lee, it is SO tough to be nice anymore! I have been a Royals fan since 1972. This is the MOST disappointing season, to me, since the 1977 ending against the Yankees. I think the tease of last August and September has set us up for this disappointment. Some general thoughts: 1) Defense has been solid for the most part. 2) Relief pitching has been solid for the most part. 3) Hitting for empty average. We score our runs and get a lot of hits when we are down 8-1 and make a game 8-5. 4) Our RISP is terrible. 5) Starting pitching is SO inconsistent! We have no #1. Our 1 is a 4 or 5 at best. We have about 3 #5 and two that really shouldn’t be starting. 6) Seitzer is over-rated as a hitting instructor. 7) Time to move to the youth movement completely. Get what you can out of Frenchy- HUGE disappointment, Yuni, Getz, Chen, and Hochever. 8) Moore is over-rated as an overall GM. If Allard had been allowed to spend the money, he would have had better overall results. Yes, he has drafted well, but we have done a terrible job of developing pitchers! Baird’s overall winning % is better than Dayton’s. This guy has had 6 years to show his mettle. 9) Yost must go! Plain and simple- good guy, but not getting it done. We need change if nothing else for change. Trey’s overall record is better than Ned’s. I would like to see an Omar Vizquel next year, Bud Black, or Hurdle.

JUST DISAPPOINTING! I commend you Lee having to write something every day about this!
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Aaron: As I pointed out yesterday, if the only thing that matters is winning and losing, 13 big league teams are losers, 13 GMs and 13 managers must be bonehead and should be fired.

I just don’t believe that. I’m trying to fight the sports-talk radio mentality that’s so pervasive among fans. I see progress, that doesn’t mean anything to you, so we’re not going to agree on this.

Charles: Ned was trying to win yesterday’s game, he brought in a lefty who had been dominate against lefties and it didn’t work out. Leaving every reliever in who has a good inning is a recipe for burning out the pen.

Jeff: I agree with some of what you say and disagree with other parts. Bottom line for me: the starting pitching hasn’t been there and things won’t get better until it is.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Aaron, with what GMDM inherited, he’s done a fine job, considering he had to build a complete organization without the advantage of the expansion draft and extra draft picks. The Royals had a terrible farm system for years before Moore signed on, had no functional international presence, and didn’t even have cell phones for scouts.

“Six years!” is the current meme, at least a step in the right direction considering last month’s meme was “Twenty-seven years!” before someone did some explaining and pointed out how silly that was. Dayton Moore isn’t the best GM at the moment, but hardly the worst. Comparing by years instead of progress from a starting point doesn’t really tell us how good or bad he is nor tell us how good the Pirates GM is or Tampa’s. Easy to build a winner starting with a solid farm system and enough major league talent to trade for young pitchers who then become established pitchers who are traded for prospects. The Royals now have finally reached the point where they have a couple of veterans who could be flipped for a couple three good A and AA arms and position players. I’ve suggested that that be done.
Aaron Cooper
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, I see you completely skipped over the point that those other 13 teams who currently have losing records have all had more success than Dayton Moore has had in the recent past.

Nobody is mad about one losing season. We’re mad about six straight losing seasons with no progress. Being better fundamentally is not progress. Having some nice position players is not progress. Winning more games is progress. Yes, winning and losing is all that matters. That doesn’t mean you have to win literally every single year, but it most definitely does mean that six straight non-competitive years matter.

You guys have simply bought the company line that it takes ‘x’ number of years to build a winner (with ‘x’ being an ever increasing number of years that DM changes with every passing season…) Nobody is saying DM should have a WS title by now, but an 80 win season most certainly is possible in six years.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Lot of us thought 80 was possible this year, including a rather well-known blogger on another site. Losing the top two starters impacted that, as well as losing the C and CF for half a year. Injuries and young players can knock a few wins off.

As for others’ recent success, all a matter of what you start with, as I’ve pointed out. The company line is based on reality, starting with zero and working through the draft takes years. The fact that we have three 1st round Royals’ picks starting and traded another for good SS and CF with JaKKKe and Wil close shows that the team is being built and it’s being built differently than one like Milwaukee, about to sink into irrelevancy from an unsustainable model as Prince is gone, Zack is gone, Marcum is on his way, and the farm system is barren beyond the three AA players LAA gave them for a couple of months of Zack.

As for a WS title, that is the goal, not an 80 win season. Moore isn’t going to do stupid stuff to get to 85 wins, that’s no secret.

As for “no progress”, you can’t be serious. I’ll leave it at that.

Judging the Royals