Games » Los Angeles Angels
Jul25The worst inning of the year
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
There’s a difference between playing poorly and losing. Losing is when the other guy beats you. Playing poorly is when you beat yourself. On Wednesday afternoon, the Royals went a long way toward beating themselves. Having watched every pitch of every inning of every game since Opening Day, I thought the second inning of this game was the most poorly played inning of the year.
Two innings into a game against Jered Weaver, the Royals already had made two errors, three mental mistakes, thrown two wild pitches, failed to score a run for themselves and given two runs to Angels.
First inning: With one down and two strikes, Jered Weaver throws a pitch up and in to Alcides Escobar. Players know pitchers will come inside, but they don’t like any pitch above the shoulders. Getting hit in the arm or back is one thing, but taking a fastball to the head is life-threatening.
Why pitchers come up and in — or at least used to on a regular basis — is immediately apparent when Weaver locks up Escobar on a fastball down the middle. Hitters are not too eager to lean out over the plate once a pitch has just missed their head.
Next, Weaver drills Lorenzo Cain in the thigh. If a pitcher wants to hit a batter, he throws the pitch belt high behind him. The batter’s natural reaction is to back up on an inside pitch, and the batter will back up into the pitch. This pitch looks more like a pitcher trying to move a batter’s feet. Cain hit a home run the night before, and pitchers will sometimes try to rob a hitter of his power by moving his feet and affecting the base of his power.
In the bottom of the inning, the Angels’ Mike Trout doubles, moves to third on Torii Hunter’s single and scores on a wild pitch. Catcher Salvador Perez, who usually is so reliable about blocking pitches in the dirt, has a curveball get past him.
Breaking pitches thrown to the outside corner usually change direction and bounce back toward the middle of the plate. (Fastballs continue in their original line of travel.) But for some reason, this breaking pitch continues in its original line of travel. That means Sal’s positioning is wrong, and instead of the ball hitting his chest protector, it hits his right elbow and gets away.
After bouncing one curve that costs him a run, Royals starter Luke Hochevar may be reluctant to bounce another and hangs one to Mark Trumbo. Trumbo singles, and Hunter moves to third. After a Kendrys Morales groundout and an Alberto Callaspo double, the Angels lead 3-0.
Second inning: The worst inning of the 2012 season starts with a Mike Moustakas double. Angels right fielder Mark Trumbo loses the ball in sun, and it lands behind him.
A hitter sometimes makes the mistake of coasting out of the batter’s box when he believes he’s hit a routine fly ball, but that’s not what Mike does. He sees Trumbo is having trouble and runs hard all the way, but then shuts it down as he approaches second base.
Whether Mike assumed he should stop at second because there were no outs or third-base coach Eddie Rodriguez was telling him to shut it down is impossible to say without talking to the people involved, but Trumbo was just throwing the ball in from right as Mike was putting on the brakes. Getting to third base seemed possible, if not easy.
The base-running decision immediately costs the Royals a run when Perez hits a deep fly to right. Moustakas moves up to third but should be scoring a run. Moose never makes it home, and it appears the Royals have just given away a run.
The bottom of the inning starts with a single by the Angels’ Peter Bourjos. Eric Hosmer makes an error on a sacrifice bunt by Bobby Wilson, and both runners are safe. Then Mike Moustakas gets a double-play ball from Mike Trout, steps on third, but bounces the throw past Hosmer. Wilson and Trout move up to second and third. Torii Hunter singles to left, and Wilson — who should have been out on his bunt attempt — scores, followed by Trout.
Alex Gordon tries to throw Trout out at home on the fly. Gordon overthrows the cutoff man, and Hunter moves in to second while the ball is in the air. Then Hochevar throws his second wild pitch, allowing Hunter to move into third.
Mark Trumbo then hits the ball back to Hochevar, and the Royals pitcher appears to have forgotten the number of outs. Luke never looks Hunter back to third, and the Angels score another easy run when Hochevar throws the ball to first. Angels lead 6-0.
Third inning: Weaver drills Cain once again. Once again, it doesn’t appear to be intentional, but the Royals’ No. 3 hitter has been hit twice, and Escobar and Francoeur have had pitches thrown up around their heads. Pitchers have to protect their hitters by letting the opponent know there’s a price to pay for pitching inside. So far, Hochevar has not come inside on any Angels hitter.
A pitcher who refuses to protect his hitters because he doesn’t want an angry confrontation on the mound or wants to protect his ERA is not considered a good teammate, and someone may tell him so. At this point, both teams probably expect Hochevar to do something about what’s happening.
The bottom of the inning begins with a leadoff walk to Alberto Callaspo and a Howie Kendrick single. Maicer Izturis doubles down the right-field line, and the Royals come to life. Jeff Francoeur hits relay man Yuniesky Betancourt, who gets the ball to Salvador Perez. Sal stretches to his right while blocking the plate with his left leg. Home-plate umpire Bob Davidson originally calls Kendrick — who is trying to score from first — safe, but then sees where Perez has his left leg, realizes there’s no way Kendrick could have tagged home, and reverses the call.
Angels manager Mike Scoscia comes out to argue and then immediately has Izturis try to steal third with one down. This is a common move by some managers: put a play on right after there’s been some distraction on the field. The attempt to catch the Royals napping doesn’t work. Perez throws out Izturis (Moustakas makes a difficult catch and tag on the other end), and the threat is over.
Fourth inning: Bobby Wilson leads off with a home run, and now, with the Royals down 8-0, Hochevar comes inside on a batter, drilling Mike Trout. It appears the ball actually hits Trout’s bat — which would make it a foul ball, not a hit by pitch — but all three sides, the Royals, the Angels and the umpires, have been waiting for Hochevar to retaliate, and Davidson wastes no time ejecting him.
Fifth inning: It may be a coincidence, but even though Cain strikes out in the top of the inning, Weaver does not come inside. Escobar singles, Billy Butler homers and the Royals are finally on the board.
Sixth inning: Despite their performance in the early innings, the Royals have accomplished one of their pregame goals: Jered Weaver is out of the game. He has used 101 pitches to get through five innings. When a pitcher is really good, sometimes all you can do is hang close, take pitches and hope to get to the opponent’s bullpen early enough to get back in the game.
Eighth inning: Everett Teaford, who replaced Hochevar in the fourth, has slowed down the Angels with four scoreless innings. Angels reliever Scott Downs, with an 8-2 lead, walks Butler, gives up a single to Perez and then a home run to Francoeur. Suddenly, the Royals have a chance, down 8-5.
Just as suddenly, the chance is gone.
Teaford gives up a leadoff single and is replaced by Louis Coleman, who gives up back to back home runs. The Royals go on to lose 11-6.
Even in this game, there were some things to like. After a disastrous beginning, the Royals fought back, playing good defense from the third inning on. The offense did not give up, putting up six runs after being down 8-0. Teaford pitched well in relief, but — you can’t make this many mistakes and beat a pitcher like Weaver.
Playing for one
Many readers have been critical of Ned Yost for playing for one run early in games. But the Royals are 31-14 when they score first and 10-42 when the other team scores first. That may or may not be meaningful. If you score more often than the other guy, it would seem you also have a better chance of scoring first. In other words, scoring first may be a byproduct of winning, not the other way around.
On the other hand …
Scoring first is a psychological advantage (it can create the expectation of defeat in the other team), and it may make your pitcher more aggressive. A pitcher with a cushion is more likely to be aggressive and throw strikes when the man at the plate can’t hurt him.
When the Royals get back to Kansas City, I’ll ask Ned his opinion on the value of scoring first.
Butler
Francoeur
Perez
Josh Heer
9 months, 4 weeks agoHey Lee did Yuni have good numbers against Lee, why did Getz not play?
Aaron Patch
9 months, 4 weeks agoDespite today’s third inning debacle, there is one inning which stands above all others in terms of those worthy of the moniker “Worst Inning of the Year.”
This inning featured 8 hits and 7 seven runs, 5 of which crossed the plate with two outs.
This inning had a misplayed ball that went for a triple and a wild pitch.
This was the inning that began a loosing streak which would rival major league records.
This was the inning that ruined my day of baseball before it really got started. And worst of all, this was the inning that served as the death of hope that is held in every new season.
This wasn’t even a whole inning. It was the top of the first on Friday, April 3rd. Yes, the home opener.
Sam Miles
9 months, 4 weeks agoLee -
As I’m sure you’re aware, no one minds that the Royals want to score first, they’re bothered that they’re willing to give up the chance to score more for the chance to score one.
I think you’d agree that scoring as many runs as possible is more important than getting the first one, even if it would be preferable to do both.
I could be wrong - scoring first could be the big key in scoring a lot. But imagine the psychological advantage of having an actual cushion, rather than one run.
Lee Judge
9 months, 4 weeks agoJosh: Not being there I can’t say why Betancourt played over Getz. If I was there I couldn’t say why Betancourt played over Getz—Yost doesn’t share that information with me.
But it appears Yuni (in a large sample size)has hit Weaver better than Chris has (in a small sample size).
Aaron: I’ll admit it, in a “worst inning of the year” contest you’ve got a good candidate. The difference—at least to me—is the Indians did more to beat the Royals in that inning. There was a wild pitch and Dyson misplayed a ball that day, but the second inning in this game featured a lot of different people making mental mistakes or errors.
Fortunately, I think the second inning was an aberration. The Royals generally play good baseball on defense and the people who made mistakes were making mistakes that were unusual for them.
Sam: Naturally, scoring first and scoring a lot is the best of all possible worlds. At times I think Ned Yost has taken the bird in the hand approach, depending on the game and the situation—it’s not like he always bunts if Gordon gets on to lead off a game.
What I’m curious about is how much Ned values scoring first even one if it’s just one run.
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoBrendan,
Again, carrying over from yesterday’s game.
Frenchy’s top season according to baseball reference:
2007: 84 runs,188 hits,40 dbls,19 hr,105 rbi,.293 avg,.782 ops
2011: 77 runs,171 hits, 47 dbls, 20 hr, 87 rbi, .285 avg, .805 ops
2006: 83 runs, 169 hits, 24 dbls, 29 hr, 103 rbi, .260 avg, .742
2009: 72 runs, 166 hits, 32 dbls, 15 hr, 76 rbi, .280 avg, .732 ops
I would say either 2007 or 2011 was his best year but all of these seasons are pretty close overall from a performance standpoint. My point is that Frenchy was signed partially as insurance and seemed like the safer bet due to more consistent past performance. I do see his lack of range in the OF. I believe he is very tired. He has played in 93 or 97 games this season in the hottest summer there has been around the country in years and plays the OF for a team in which the pitching staff has given up the 5th most runs in the league and is getting hit all over the park. He is definitely tired and is definitely pressing. He is definitely playing his way out of a job and we are all in agreement there. Just don’t think you should rehash the decision to extend him instead of Melky. Melky didn’t want the deal that Frenchy took and as I explained earlier, they didn’t have the depth in the OF last year and outside of Myers really still don’t have a lot of org depth in the OF.
I asked if you lived in DC b/c I couldn’t help but notice from your fb page you and I are mutual friends with a few ppl. Glen Sears and I graduated High School together, Ben Walker and I were in the same fraternity at KU & Tim Stuckey and I were good friends when we were kids at Highland Elementary before my family moved to Olathe. Just thought it was interesting!!
Aaron Bailey
9 months, 4 weeks agoFor Thursday’s version of his News and Notes, Bob Dutton reports that Yost did NOT support Esky’s first inning bunt attempts on Monday and Tuesday. So a lot of these Yost-complaints may be misguided as it may be the players thinking a bunt is their best way to get a guy over (and after watching so many failed attempts to hit a ground ball to the right side or a sac fly, I tend to agree with them). I’ve also been wondering if the scoring first/psych advantage is a reason for the better road record this year. Too bad they can’t say they want to bat first at the next homestand.
Terry Payne
9 months, 4 weeks agoThis game was an example of what can happen in the dog days when a non-competitive team lets one get away: You can’t just summon it back.
Though the team fought back, it was too little, too late.
Time to focus on setting the lineup, resolving rotation problems, and getting set for next year. Sound familiar?
It may still not be too late to move Frenchy, whom, I fear, is done.
Sam Miles
9 months, 4 weeks agoAaron is right, in that Dutton’s notes point Escobar as the guy who made the bunt calls. The way Yost souds, he’d rather bunt after the seventh…we’ll see if he does that. Not that he should care, but he’d get a lot less heat. Or maybe we’d just double down on the Yuni complaints…who knows..
As to this psychological advantage, people and players may think it matters - and it might - but I think we’re working with anecdotal evidence. It may not be an actual, results-bearing thing. And even if they/we think it matters, I’d be interested in some numbers on it.
William Wolfe
9 months, 4 weeks agoThere seems to be a pretty simple way to handle this bunting thing—how about Ned tells Alcides to stop doing it? Either Ned is lying to the media (which is perfectly fine because they are his decisions and he doesn’t need to tell the media everything that goes on strategy-wise but it means he agrees with the decisions) or Alcides doesn’t listen (which doesn’t seem likely but could represent Ned being an ineffective leader) or Ned doesn’t understand how much sac bunts in the first inning hurt you. I can’t figure out a way to paint a rosy picture with it any way you slice it.
When we finally got rid of the worst manager I’ve ever seen, I did studies of inflection points and trends (rather than aggregates because regression to the mean is hogwash invented by math conspiracy theorists) and told everyone that Ned Yost would not be successful. I am a genius that has come up with my own personal system which I will not share with others to benefit from analyzing new data, but I will tell you that I’ve named my system “The E.Y.E. Test.” My system has never failed, it’s practically omniscient. Of course it relies heavily on two things: never admitting I’m wrong and telling everyone else they are wrong.
Larry Tindle
9 months, 4 weeks agoFirst off I did not see the first couple of innings, but Esky is pretty good at bunting for a hit. Was it clearly a sac bunt or was he trying to surprise the Angels and a very good pitcher and bunt for a hit.
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoLarry,
Have you not watched Esky for the last month or so? He has been TERRIBLE at getting bunts down lately!! TERRIBLE!!
Brian Grant
9 months, 4 weeks agoThe Royals and Ned Yost deserve each other. The Royals as an organization have perfected the art of building a losing team, and Ned is the perfect person to execute a losing game plan night in and night out.
It’s really a perfect storm of sucktitude. Hochevar is the perfect ace for this organization. Yuniesky Betancourt is the perfect second baseman. Frenchy the perfect right fielder.
If you want to lose, these are the kinds of players you need at key positions. Surround them with young, talented, but flawed and cheap players like Escobar and Cain and Gordon, and you’ve got yourself the perfect loser.
And here’s the best part: You collect your $28 million profit and call it another successful year.
Go Royals!
Curtis Ruder
9 months, 4 weeks agoHochevar had been pretty darn good for six starts in a row, which meant we were due for a game where he put us out of contention early. Luke is nothing if not wildly inconsistent.
William, I love your post, but I must say if Ned Yost is the worst manager you have ever seen, you must be pretty new to following the Royals.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 4 weeks agoDarral -
If I may judge you by the company you keep, you look pretty good. Those are all good guys. Brian Cooper is another Lambda Chi out here in DC. You may know him too.
For whatever reason (more humid weather, closer fences, smaller strike zone, etc), 2007 was a significantly better year for offense than 2011. MLB average OPS was .758 in 2007 versus .720 in 2011. Plus, Francoeur was in the weaker-hitting league in 2007. So although the raw data are pretty close, the comparison to league averages are more stark. Francoeur’s OPS+ in 2007 was 102 — 2% above league average. Francoeur’s OPS+ in 2011 was 119 — 19% above league average. That’s what made me say that his 2011 was his best hitting year by a significant margin.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoAnd an OPS+ of 102 for a corner outfielder is not good. Which is why I wrote that the only year he produced over a full season was 2011.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoThere was a reason why a rebuilding team that was going nowhere was able to sign Frenchy to a one year, $2.5 million contract. (He sucked.) And many (most) thought he was being overpaid. After his 2011 season, he was signed for 2 years and $13.5 million. Those numbers would indicate that at least one person (GMDM) thought 2011 was a breakout year (versus just the 4th good year out of the last six, as you suggest Darral).
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoBrendan,
I do know Brian Cooper. Not well. He, Ben Walker & myself were in the same pledge class. I did not do so well at KU my freshman so I only stayed a year in the fraternity and am not a “member”. I partied a little too much. But, yes, I do know Brian Cooper. Are you a Lambda Chi? If so, then I know many other Lambda Chi’s and stay in touch with a few of them still.
That is a good point about 2007. I did not look that far into the numbers. I felt like when I was looking at those two seasons it was a toss up to me as to which one was his “career year”. I would give the nod to 2011 given the information you provided.
Jim, I do believe that GMDM gave him the two yr extension b/c he felt like 2011 was his “breakout year”. But I don’t think he looked at it the same way you did. I believe he looked at it the same way Jim looked at it. That his “breakout year” happened as a direct result of changes he had made physically as well as fundamentally at the plate. That those changes, coupled with his personality and past success made the contract less risky then, say, an extension for Melky. Who, up until last season, had not come close to being an everyday OFer, let alone the All-Star that he has become.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 4 weeks agoDarral -
I was a Beta, but Brian and Ben and I were on Interfraternity Council together at KU. They’re both really good guys.
My main issues with the Francoeur signing was that it diverted money from areas where we needed money to spend (pitching) and that it was for two years when Myers, even with the injured year last year in AA, was still very likely to be ready before 2014. I thought Melky would regress quite a bit (and I still think this year has mainly been driven by incredible luck on balls in play), but he was an affordable player who could fill RF while we waited for Myers (who I never thought would dominate the way he has this year).
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoDarral, GMDM offered the exact same extension to Melky (except Melky still had one year on his current contract).
Jay Hall
9 months, 4 weeks agoThe defense of Moore offering Francoeur and Cabrera the same extension misses one key fact - Melky was/is more valuable than Francoeur.
Melky had one year left on his contract. Francoeur did not. That means GMDM could have extended Melky and then offered Francoeur a FA contract in the offseason if they felt Cain was not ready for ML time.
Melky’s season last year was .305/.339/.470. Jeff’s was .285/.329/.476. Melky’s OPS+ was 121. Jeff’s was 119. Melky’s a switch hitter. Jeff bats only right handed. Melky can play all three outfield positions (though he is much better as a corner OF). Jeff can only play right. Melky has relatively small platoon splits (.285/.337/.413 vs. RHP, .281/.341/.412 vs LHP) while Jeff’s are pretty big (.259/.299/.406 vs. RHP, .293/.339/.483 vs. LHP).
Looking at all of that information, which guy is more of a risk to regress? Which guy is more of a risk to become unplayable, or a risk to be only a platoon player? The guy that can play more positions, switch hit and doesn’t have large platoon splits or the guy that can only play one position, hits only right handed and has huge platoon splits?
Basically, GMDM offered the same extension to two players when one guy was CLEARLY much more valuable than the other. That was the mistake. And the fact that Melky was under contract for 2012 already makes it even more lopsided.
Chuck Smith
9 months, 4 weeks agoWell, it appears that Hochever didn’t have his best stuff last night. Looking at a couple of different pitching location grids, it looks like he was leaving a lot of pitches in the heart of the strike zone. That being said, at least he was still pounding the strike zone. Only one walk means he was still making the hitter get the ball in play Vs our defense. Normally, this would produce better results. The one walk was to Callapso who’s free speed on the bases is not what you want.
It surely wasn’t a great game from Hoch, but it didn’t have the feel of some of those earlier horrible games either.
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoJay,
Go back midway through last season when Francoeur signed the extension. I bet that Melky’s split’s didn’t look nearly like how you laid them out before last season and the first part of this season. Also, I would argue that outside of their OBP/AVG splits against RHP, they have near identical splits.
As many have stated many times on here, including myself, it is obvious that GMDM made the wrong choice with Francoeur instead of Melky. But when you put it in historical context you should begin to understand why he offered it to Francoeur instead of Melky.
I would rather the argument be where Brendan seems to always end up with it. That GMDM should not have extended either one due to Cain and Myers.
On the merits of that argument I believe Brendan has a point. However, I continue to say that coming into this season Myers was coming off an injury-filled season in which he also did not hit well and was still in AA. On that track, he probably wouldn’t have been in KC until sometime in 2013 at the earliest, yr 2 of Francoeur’s deal. They needed that stop gap based on that development track. However, Myers pushed the envelope and probably should be up at some point this season although he probably won’t be.
Now, if the argument is that they shouldn’t have signed Francoeur or Melky to the extension and instead used the money on SPing, then I can get behind that 100%. That was why I brought up the Pirates and A’s in a previous game breakdown as examples of teams with major holes in their lineup that are still winning at a clip that is about 12-15 games over .500. I believe also that you will see the Royals be aggressive this off-season to get as many as 3 new SPers. GMDM has admitted publicly he needs to and they have the capital to do it if you look at what their payroll was like before this latest youth movement.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoMelky is a bit of a red herring vis-a-vis Frenchy. They were not an either/or thing. They were both offered contract extensions. Regardless of what they did with Melky, the Royals did not have to re-up with Frenchy at 2 years and $13.5 million. It’s hard to tell how much interest there was in Frenchy since, as usual, Dayton got way out in front of the market.
Aaron Bailey
9 months, 4 weeks agoMy understanding was that Melky wasn’t going to sign on the cheap (and Frenchy’s contract is a fairly cheap one for a veteran) and the Royals (as Jim just said) was looking for stopgaps along with veteran leadership. While Melky was/is a better hitter than Frenchy (and I think not having him in the 2-hole has affected Gordon’s numbers), he is not a better teammate (or defensive OF). So the Royals would’ve had to pay Melky big $ on a long-term contract which would’ve either blocked Cain or Meyers or prevented the signing of Gordon or put the team in a position where they’d have no shot at getting a decent pitcher.
On Esky’s bunting, he seems to be good at bunting for a hit but horrible when bunting for a sacrifice. Since the Royals are now playing for next year, maybe it’s better that he get game-time practice at the skill.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 4 weeks agoI think we’re all clear that Myers was an unknown last year. I would add that this year isn’t the first that Lorenzo Cain has had injury problems. I would further suggest the possibility that Melky may not have wanted to stay here. We got him because no one else wanted him, but after he excelled, others might want him, so it would take an Alex Gordon sized contract to keep him, something along the lines of 4/40. With other options coming along in ‘13 and ‘14, the consensus last winter, a reasonable two year contract made more sense.
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoLook at the past 5 WS winners. The #2 hitter on the past 5 Champions looked like this:
111.6 runs,188 hits,41 dbls,22.6 hr,89 rbi,.287 avg,.827 ops
Esky is not a #2 hitter. He is a good #9 hitter. In Yost’s world he is a #2 b/c Ned still thinks it is the 70s or 80s in the NL. According to those #s, Moose is the ideal #2 hitter on a championship team.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 4 weeks agoAaron -
Melky was under team control for the 2012 season. He had to take a 1-year contract from the Royals for 2012 if they offered one (although he could insist on arbitration to determine the salary).
The Royals traded that team control to the Giants and Melky agreed to a $6M 1-year contract with them in lieu of arbitration. This is essentially what it would have cost the Royals to retain Melky for 2012.
If Myers still wasn’t ready by the end of 2012, the Royals could have gone looking in the free agent market then, but, at the time the Francoeur extension was done (August 2011) the Royals had no near-term problem that needed solving. They already had Gordon, Cain, and Melky under team control for 2012, and they had a highly touted prospect in AA.
Jay Hall
9 months, 4 weeks agoDarral,
The splits I laid out for both Melky and Jeff were career splits, not for last season. Both were much better than their career lines last year. The numbers for last season for Melky were .306/.344/.475 against righties and .304/.329/.459 against lefties. Again, very small differences. Jeff’s splits were .279/.318/.445 against righties and .302/.363/.570 against lefties. Huge gaps. Melky is a better contact hitter, so his OBP and BA are going to be higher, while Jeff has more power, so his SLG will trend higher. But the splits also tell you that if they both regress, Jeff is clearly going to be a platoon candidate because he struggles so much against righties.
I agree that the Royals should have spent the money on pitching, and since Melky was already under contract for 2012, extending Jeff was unnecessary. Extending him past the 2012 season without making sure he would produce in back to back years was even more foolish.
I understand that the Royals are looking for veteran leadership, but leadership also needs to be productive between the lines and this season, Jeff hasn’t been that productive.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 4 weeks agoA team like the Phillies might be able to afford a $7M insurance policy in case their other outfield options didn’t work out, but the Royals can not. Money that was desperately needed for pitching went to create an outfield surplus.
For 2012, the Royals had the following outfielders under team control and on the 40-man roster: Gordon, Melky, Cain, Dyson, Lough.
We had a top-rated OF prospect who’d been injured and was just getting back to health when Moore agreed to the Francoeur extension. If Moore had waited until the offseason, he’d have already seen Myers destroy the Arizona Fall League (Myers led all hitters in the AFL, a league generally used for grooming top prospects).
Aaron Bailey
9 months, 4 weeks agoBrendan, I understand your points and I don’t exactly disagree with you, I can just see GM Moore’s reasoning, Frenchy’s a better defender and teammate and would sign. Considering most experts thought Melky (and Frenchy) would regress this year, it’s reasonable to expect Melky to pout if Gordon got a long-term deal and he didn’t. Both he and Frenchy seem to produce better with a chip on their shoulders, so it certainly would’ve been better if Frenchy had been signed to a one-year plus an option deal.
Darral, I applaud your research (and I agree, I’d bat Esky 9th and Myers, when he’s ready, 2nd), but just to play devil’s advocate: the Cardinals and Tony La Russa probably bunted more than anyone. In fact, their 2006 championship was mostly due to the Tigers inability to field the bunt and not throw the ball into the outfield.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 4 weeks agoJay, I would remind that Melky is a switch-hitter.
I would also remind everyone that the consensus at the time was that the Royals needed an SP with elite K/9 numbers and Melky, with his control year, would get a better one.
As for spending money on pitching, I would remind that the rotation looked pretty good in the off-season with Felipe Paulino flashing #1 production, Hochevar seemingly resurgent, Master Chen coming off two good years, Duffy looking like, I thought at the time and predicted here, a solid #2-Ace for this year, and the PCL pitcher of the year in Mendoza. We had a rotation that looked to have at least a #1 and three #2s, plus Mendoza and a dominant bullpen, plus hope for Montgomery and JaKKKe. Plus Sanchez, the elite K/9 guy with a no-no on his resume. I doubt Dayton Moore really saw a reason to spend money on SPs, unless anyone thinks he should have predicted the injuries. I, personally, don’t remember anyone on the ‘net predicting the loss of the two best pitchers, though many did predict Chen’s regression.
In hindsight, everyone’s a genius:)
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoAaron,
I am not arguing that the bunt should never be applied and I agree that every player in the lineup should know how to do situational bunting. However, playing a particular player 2nd b/c he can bunt and batting him 2nd so that he will bunt a lot to move guys over and sacrifice an out are two different things.
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoI decided to find out the avg stats for every lineup position for all the WS Champs for the last 5 yrs (I have a lot of free time at work):
1st: 105 runs,192 hits,41 dbl,15 hr,73 rbi,.278 avg,.342 obp,.424 slg,.767 ops
2nd: 111 runs,188 hits,37 dbl,18 hr,73 rbi,.282 avg,.352 obp,.432 slg,.785 ops
3rd: 114 runs,186 hits,44 dbl,34 hr,110 rbi,.292 avg,.378 obp,.535 slg,.913 ops
4th: 104 runs,171 hits,33 dbl,32 hr,115 rbi,.278 avg,.373 obp,.497 slg,.870 ops
5th: 93 runs,165 hits,33 dbl,27 hr,101 rbi,.270 avg,.356 obp,.470 slg,.826 ops
6th: 77 runs,172 hits,34 dbl,22 hr,91 rbi,.280 avg,.343 obp,.452 slg,.795 ops
7th: 73 runs,159 hits,32 dbl,19 hr,81 rbi,.266 avg,.327 obp,.428 slg,.755 ops
8th: 73 runs,145 hits,31 dbl,13 hr,61 rbi,.251 avg,.330 obp,.386 slg,.716 ops
9th: 56 runs,118 hits,23 dbl,6 hr,54 rbi,.215 avg,.271 obp,.299 slg,.570 ops
Obviously the #9 hitter is skewed due to the NL winning 3 of the last 5 WS. Still, I think it gives a good barometer on where players should really be batting relative to their production in the order as well as shine some light on what improvements may be needed to the lineup. I am trying to identify some #s to use for the past 5 WS pitching staffs. Not as easy.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 4 weeks agoDarral, Esky isn’t the ideal #2, Gordon probably fits better there, but we don’t yet have a prototypical #1. Until then Escobar will have to do with his average and speed and even his slightly growing power. He’s got the third best OBP among full season regulars and his SLG is .016 behind Gordon.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 4 weeks agoJim F -
The rotation did not look pretty good in the offseason. It looked like the worst rotation in the AL Central.
I know you have a contrarian streak, but this is a stretch even for you.
The front office seemed to believe it was better than it was, but in a different way than you apparently believed. The Royals did not seem to share your high opinion of Paulino or Duffy in the offseason.
@Mellinger 12/1/11: “Regarding the #Royals rotation: only Sanchez, Hochevar and Chen are locks. Duffy, Paulino, Crow, Montgomery, Teaford, and Mendoza competing.”
That didn’t make sense to me then, and it doesn’t make sense to me now. It’s as though we were valuing pitchers by how much we paid them rather than what they’d produced.
Mendoza has been far better than I expected. Sanchez was far worse than I expected. The string of 6th/7th/8th starters were a bit better than I expected, and Chen was a bit worse. It sucked losing Duffy and Paulino, but when is the last time the Royals got even 800 IP out of the opening day starting rotation? Starting pitchers are going to miss time every year.
If the Royals thought they had a starting rotation that would allow them to compete this year, I have no hope that the people making that evaluation can ever get us to the playoffs.
Darral VanGoethem
9 months, 4 weeks agoActually Jim, Gordon is the ideal #1 or #2 hitter, assuming his power #s this season are a fluke and his power #s from last yr are about what to expect. Look at his ‘11 #s compared to the #s I just posted above.
Joel Kallem
9 months, 4 weeks agoOne thing being ignored in all the conversation about Melky/Frenchy or using the money for starting pitching is the fact that is just what the Royals did in a fashion. We got a starting pitcher for Melky who we probably could not get for Frenchy, and at the time it looked like we had strengthened our SP. In hindsight, we did not accomplish that, but at the time most of us were positive about this move. Thus, it wasn’t Melky vs Frenchy. It was keeping Melky and ditching Frenchy or keeping Frenchy and Sanchez and dumping Melky. With our need for SP, the later option seemed to be the best.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoAgreed, Joel. (See my post way up there.)
Jim F. said “We had a rotation that looked to have at least a #1 and three #2s, plus Mendoza . . .”
Please tell me you’re kidding. That’s so far out there it defies a response. Right up there with the world is flat, Obama wasn’t born in the U.S. and Romney is a felon.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoActually, I agree with Joel’s statement that it wasn’t Melky vs. Frenchy. However, I don’t agree that Frenchy should have been signed to a two year deal during the season. DM could have waited and found another solution as part of or in conjunction with the Melky trade. The Melky trade was the right thing to do at the time. Spending $13.5 million on Frenchy was not the right thing to do. They are not mutually exclusive.
Thayne Griffin
9 months, 4 weeks agoIn regards to the leadoff hitter, if Alex Gordon isn’t it, we don’t have one. He has a .300 avg almost again this year after his terrible start, OBP of .380 with a great walk rate, and leads the league in doubles which is as good as a single and steal. I love Gordon in the leadoff.
To Brian who posted: “Surround them with young, talented, but flawed and cheap players like Escobar and Cain and Gordon, and you’ve got yourself the perfect loser.”
I say where are the flaws? Gordon’s power is his only flaw? Maybe a shade too high strikeout rate? Cain’s flaw = injuries? Escobar’s is lack of power or what? I don’t see it. Mike Trout’s for every position don’t grow on trees. Find me a team with two guys that have zero flaws and then I’ll believe you haha. Every player has a flaw and those three’s flaws aren’t that serious/bad. As for the rest of what you posted, I would agree with that.
Speaking of which, who was the last great manager we had? Was I even alive (born 1991)?
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoNo, you weren’t. Dick Howser in 1986. I don’t know that we need a great manager, but if you changed the question to “Who was the last manager we had who was decent?” the answer, unfortunately, is the same.
Jim Fetterolf
9 months, 4 weeks agoJW, I’m perfectly serious. Felipe was putting up #1 numbers since he started for the Royals and Duffy looked like he was getting it at the start of the year and in SP. Chen also had decent numbers last year, as did Hochevar, high #3s on fangraphs. And Mendoza is performing about as expected, better than Duffy last year. Having four of the starters injured so far kind of messed up the equation. Not sure that could have been predicted.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoIn “fairness” to the Royals, it’s pretty hard for long-time losing team in a small market with a limited budget to hire a great manager. Also probably holds true for GMs.
Jim Wilson
9 months, 4 weeks agoJim F., I’m not taking bait.
Thayne Griffin
9 months, 4 weeks agoI saw some numbers last night I believe..Chen is the second LEAST efficient pitcher in baseball this year. Probably a reason for him being worse than last year. Don’t know how much I trust “work factor” though. Seems quite arbitrary to me. Maybe someone else could explain it better..
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=60F6I120724
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 4 weeks agoJim F -
Of the 94 pitchers who threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title last year, Hochevar ranked #80 by Fangraphs FIP. I don’t know how you’re getting a number 3 starter out of a guy who ranked 80/94.
Bruce Chen was a shade worse than Luke, but he didnt throw enough innings to qualify. If we cut the threshold down to 150IP, there are 107 pitchers that threw enough innings, and Chen ranked 90th (Hochevar was 87th).
If we want to get a sense of where they rank among the top 150 starters last year, we can set the min IP to 80 IP and click on the starters tab (to exclude innings thrown in relief since relievers can throw with max effort and post better numbers). We get exactly 150 pitchers. Sort by FIP, and we get:
Halladay 2. Kershaw 3. Lee …
Paulino
Francis
Hochevar
Sanchez
Chen
Duffy
So, if last year’s defense-independent pitching stats were all we had to go by, after Francis left and Sanchez was acquired, we’d say a #2, three #4s, and a #5.
Another pitcher of note:
I don’t think FIP is the end-all, be-all of pitching measurements (Duffy certainly looked better than a #5), but I think it’s closer to the truth than saying a #1 three #2s and Sanchez.
Brendan Woodbury
9 months, 4 weeks agoThe formatting here is infuriating.
That should be:
1.Hallady 2.Kershaw 3.Lee … 44.Paulino … 56.Francis … 107.Hochevar. … 109.Sanchez(SF) … 112.Chen … 137.Duffy
with a special nod to 120.Guthrie
Aaron Cooper
9 months, 4 weeks agoLee, can you ask Dayton Moore what his new timeline for contention is? I know he said 6-8 years, but that will obviously be pushed back. So, what, 9-11 years now? Would love to know when we can start holding Dayton Moore accountable for the moves that all of “us” knew were stupid to begin with.