Games: Seattle Mariners, July 18: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Seattle Mariners

Jul18

Billy was born to hit

“Billy was born to hit.” That was what Mitch Maier said not long before he left the Royals. Manager Ned Yost called Billy a “special hitter.” Last night, with the game tied at 7 in the bottom of the ninth inning, Billy Butler stepped to the plate to face Seattle reliever Josh Kinney. Before he left the dugout, Billy said he was going to take the first pitch.

Butler figured Kinney wouldn’t throw him a first-pitch fastball and he would get a slider instead. Billy wanted to see the slider — live and in person — get a good look at the release, the spin and the pitch’s movement. Once Billy knew what to expect from the slider, he would be ready to hit.

Billy got the slider he expected for a first-pitch strike. Kinney then doubled up and threw another slider low and away. After the game, I asked Billy whether he was then expecting a fastball in a 1-1 count. Billy said no, not really. If Kinney had thrown three sliders in a row, Billy would not have been surprised. But Butler figured he could react to a fastball or adjust down to another slider.

He reacted to a fastball. Home run. The Royals won 8-7.

Game notes

Second inning: After Seattle starter Kevin Millwood went through the first inning 1-2-3, the Royals jumped all over him in the second. So what changed? I asked Alex Gordon that after the game, and he said Millwood always throws a lot of fastballs, and in the first inning everyone was watching to see whether he would keep up that pattern.

By the second inning, the Royals’ hitters were ready and jumped on Millwood for three runs.

Third inning: You might have noticed that Millwood and Mariners catcher Miguel Olivo were having a hard time getting on the same page. They had not one, but two meetings on the mound while trying to decide what pitch to throw to Mike Moustakas. So what was up?

Billy Butler was standing on second base.

When an opposing base-runner is on second, the catcher changes the signs. That means the pitcher has to remember what system they agreed to use beforehand. So you often will see a meeting to get things straightened out.

Sixth inning: Chris Getz walked to lead off the inning. He then advanced on a wild pitch with Alex Gordon at the plate. Gordon hit a ground ball to Getz’s right, and Chris then pulled off a difficult base-running move.

When a runner is on second and there is only one out, the runner usually does not advance on a ball hit to his right. Otherwise, the shortstop would move to his right, pick up the ball and make a short, easy throw to third base to cut down the lead runner.

But that happens when the runner breaks right away and the shortstop can see he has an easy out. On this play, Getz retreated slightly on Gordon’s ground ball, waited for the shortstop to throw the ball and then took off for third. This base-running play requires speed and timing. Getz has both.

After the game, I asked Alex whether he had seen the jump that Chris Getz got on Gordon’s flare double just beyond third base. Brayan Pena had to hold his ground because a runner on third doesn’t have a good angle, but Getz was on second and broke right away.

Alex said, “Getz is a ballplayer.” That’s the ultimate compliment in a major-league clubhouse. It means the player in question understands the game, hustles and does the small things right.

Seventh inning: A passed ball might have cost the Royals a run. Jesus Montero advanced from first base to second on a passed ball by Brayan Pena. Kyle Seager doubled, and Montero scored. With two outs, running on contact, maybe Montero scores anyway — but the passed ball made sure of it.

Eighth inning: With the score tied at 7, the Mariners had the potential winning run on third base with one out. Royals manager Ned Yost brought in his infield, and the batter, Dustin Ackley, hit the ball to Getz. Getz, made a bad throw home — I guess he doesn’t do everything right — but Brayan Pena saved the day and a run by going to his right, handling the short hop and diving back to the plate to get the runner, Brendan Ryan. The first replay made it look as though the umpire had missed the call, but by the third replay, it was clear Ryan hadn’t touched the plate before he was tagged.

Major-league infielders will tell you there are times they have to grab it and gun it. There is not time to get their feet set or their arm in the proper throwing position. When that happens, they count on their athleticism or the athleticism of the guy receiving the throw to save the day.

This appeared to be one of those plays. Chris got it there, but Brayan saved the day.

Other stuff

• Hosmer is coming out of the three-hole, at least for a while. One of the things you notice when being around a team is that things are the way they are until they’re not. You can be told three days in a row that the Royals are going to ride it out with Hosmer hitting third, and on the fourth day he’s moving down in the order.

• Aaron Crow pitched in the seventh inning. Before the game, I asked him about starting versus relieving. Aaron said he likes both. Relievers have a chance to play every day, but starters know when they are going to pitch. Relievers have a chance to get right back out there after a bad outing, but starters have a chance to make up for one rough inning with five good ones.

Whatever happens, Aaron said he won’t be starting this year. He would need time to stretch out the innings, and that would probably mean a trip to the minors or waiting until the off-season to start the process.

A minor adjustment

Ask a player who has recently taken a trip back to the minor leagues what the difference is between Omaha and Kansas City and you will get a lot of different answers, all of them interesting.

Chris Getz said that one of the first things he noticed was overall speed. It was easier to find a gap in the outfield in Triple-A than in the big leagues. Pitcher Everett Teaford talked about the extra information available in the major leagues.

Teaford said that in the minors, he might be able to get away without locating his curve for two or three outings before people noticed and began to lay off that pitch. Teaford says that in the big leagues, you can’t get through a game before someone picks it up.

Hitters are looking to eliminate pitches they have to worry about, and if they get a report that says a pitcher can’t throw his curveball for a strike and only throws his changeup to right-handers, two-thirds of that pitcher’s arsenal may be out the window.

Getz agreed about the wealth of information available to big-league players. They get reports on opposing pitchers and hitters. They watch video. In Triple-A, hitters often have to watch warm-ups to see what the guy on the mound has.

Teaford also said pitches that get a swing and a miss in Des Moines get spit on in Chicago. You make what you think is a perfect pitch in the big leagues, and the batter won’t swing until you show you can throw that pitch for a strike.

The bottom line for fans is this: Those minor-league numbers do not automatically mean success against major-league competition. It’s in a different league.

P.S.: And the food is worse. A postgame meal in the minors might be lunch meat and a loaf of bread. A major-leaguer down for a quick visit in the minors is expected to pick up a “spread” or two during his stay. A spread usually means ordering catered food for the other players and picking up the tab.

Comments

Scott Harrison
11 months ago

I wouldn’t say .300/18/56 is a “special” hitter. A good hitter, yes. If Butler was more like .330/30/90, that would be special.

But, he’s the best we have, so I’ll take it.

I’m glad that Hosmer (finally!) is moving down in the lineup. We all like him and want him to do well, but right now he’s not doing anything to justify batting third.

I think Perez should be higher in the lineup. Maybe bat him and Butler either third or fourth. If Cain keeps hitting, leave him at No.3.

Good to see Gordon almost back to .300 after a slow start, though he won’t match his 20 HR of last season.

We don’t have anything to lose at this point. We have too many hitters who aren’t producing. We need to be quicker to adjust and make changes when needed.
Jerry Harrison
11 months ago

First time poster.

Please tell me that your system which has Hosmer at 362 and Gordon at 361 doesn’t mean that Hosmer is better or more valuable than Gordon in 2012. If it does, then it has no crediblity whatsoever as I can’t imagine anyone anywhere who would argue Hosmer is even remotely near Gordon in terms of value offensively or defensively.
Bob Wheeler
11 months ago

Lee- that game looked like the worst our team has played defense in a long time. Most of it lack of concentration. Cain had a couple of balls that he didn’t play smoothly, Getz was just out of the reach of a couple, and I think the ball over Frenchy’s head (a difficult play to be sure) usually gets caught, he also had a poor through home. They looked like a beaten club, mentally. I hope this walk off winner picks them up.
Mark Harkins
11 months ago

Bob, I thought the same thing. Escobar had a “just miss” grounder too. Seemed like there were a number of plays in the field we “just missed”. These guys need to go on a little run to keep the mental sharpness up. It’s a long season, and even longer when you’re not putting up w’s.
Donald Wilson
11 months ago

Does it seem to others that Cain is lack-a-dasial and not very energetic? In the field he doesn’t seem to be very serious and when he comes into the dugout he appears to be all wiped out and usually sits alone. He is doing a good job but he just seems to be a little “out of sorts” or something. Anyone else have the same opinion? Also, I think he is still hurting over his latest set back. I hope that isn’t true and he is trying to hide it for fear of not playing and going back down. If so, it could be a permanent thing.
Mike Powell
11 months ago

Jerry-

The Polk system isn’t about evaluating players in the same way WAR is, but think about this: Gordon is one of the best left fielders in the major leagues, across the board, but how many times does he touch the ball in a game? Nobody but the pitcher and catcher handles the ball more than the first baseman, and Hos is valuable because of what a great job he does handling the ball. Most of those points are coming from great catches on slightly errant throws by Moose and Esky that, as a result, either go for an out or prevent the runner from advancing to second. In almost every scoring system, Moose and Esky (rightly) get credit for the great plays they make, but almost no scoring systems give Hos credit for enabling them to make those plays.

So, to answer your question, it doesn’t suggest that Hosmer is better than Gordon, but it does suggest that Hosmer contributes a hell of a lot of value to this team.
Jeff D. Freeman
11 months ago

I could have sworn that Butler hit a 2-0 pitch, not a 1-1 pitch…am I wrong?
Jerry Harrison
11 months ago

Mike Powell

Well, then you might as well put the first baseman at or near the top of every team list. I appreciate where you are coming from, but I definitely do not accept the subjective interpretations that led to the conclusions shown.

There are 23 AL first basemen who have played at least 20 games at 1B. Hosmer ranks #20 of 23 in Rtot (total zone and total fielding) with a -3. AL average is zero. He ranks #23 of 23 in Rpm, +/- fielding runs above average at -5. Average is again zero. And, he ranks #17 of 23 in RF/9, range factor per nine innings.

On the other hand, Gordon is a gold glove outfielder who, out of 32 left fielders with 20 or more games played, ranks #2 in Rtot, #2 in Rpm and #12 in RF/9. Take away Rex Hudlers slobbering over Hosmer on every routine play that any first baseman makes and what have you got?

And, this doesn’t even address the big discrepency in their hitting. You may be selling Hosmer as more significant or valuable or meaningful or productive (name your adjective), but I am certainly not buying and I don’t believe anyone else will be either.

Thank you for your reply.
Wyatt Sperry
11 months ago

Umm….Miguel Olivo was not catching for the Mariners last night.
Jim Wilson
11 months ago

Jerry, the point system is very provincial — focusing solely on relative “contributions” among the team’s players (the more you handle the ball, the more you “contribute”). Based on your comments above, I suggest that you do what many of us do — ignore the points system. There is still a lot of worthwhile information on this site.
Wyatt Sperry
11 months ago

Jeff, it was a 1-1 pitch. He looked at a first pitch strike.
Mike Powell
11 months ago

Jerry,

I don’t think anyone who’s paying attention would disagree that Hos’ range is below average, and I’ve seen it suggested fairly convincingly that the way the Royals position him makes it worse. However, none of those statistics addresses the actual point I’m making regarding his ball handling skills. They all deal essentially with his range as a fielder. Good fielding range is obviously not a bad thing, but when you’re talking about a first baseman, you have to consider the way he handles throws from the rest of the infield.

As far as Rex Hudler’s slobbering, as long as I don’t have to sit near him, he can slobber all he wants. As far as “every routine play,” yes, Hos makes them. Do you remember Mike Jacobs? I’d suggest that consistently making the routine play receiving throws at first is worth a lot. He also picks throws better than almost any first baseman in the league.

As for his offense, you won’t get any argument from me. Hos has been awful at the plate this year (except, apparently, when he hits 6th). He’s also 22 years old and in his second year in the major leagues. Remember last year when we spent the whole year complaining about Escobar at the plate? Remember how he’s hitting over .300 this year?

My point is not that Alex isn’t great. If you look at my original post, you’ll see that I described him as one of the best LF in the majors, and I stand by that. I also won’t argue with you that a lot of people are undervaluing his contributions this year.

Here’s the thing: Polk’s system isn’t an average. As a result, somebody like Hos who handles the ball a lot is going to produce relatively more points than Alex, who doesn’t touch it as much defensively (or offensively, have you seen that dude draw walks? It’s awesome.). That doesn’t make it worthless, it just means it’s not a good tool for determining what you’re trying to determine. And as far as it goes, I think it’s a pretty big overstatement to suggest that no one else thinks Hos is valuable to the team. There’s an awful lot of evidence to the contrary. Plus, his value’s only going to increase as his play does. I seem to remember another guy who was limited defensively and hit .220 in his early 20s and developed into a pretty damn good player. What was his name? Oh right. Alex Gordon.
John Wilson
11 months ago

Donald, when Cain first came back, I had brought up that he appeared to favor one leg over the other and there was another question about his base running. Lee did find out that Cain still isn’t 100% but is going to play through it as long as the trainers feel it is safe.
Tom Warner
11 months ago

Scott, So for you to consider him “special” he’d have to be on pace to hit 50-something hr’s and 170-something rbi’s? That’s unreasonably high expectations… Lee, One other thing you forgot to mention about playing up here in Omaha, they get a taste of what its like on a championship team:)
Terry Payne
11 months ago

Hos is so obviously confused and anxiety-ridden, now, that a drop in the batting order is necessitated.

The team is obviously going nowhere, so let your best team play and learn. Eric is ultimately the only one who can help Eric, so let him find his stroke and get his head clear, and let muscle memory lock things in. Sending him down could do more psychic damage than help, IMO.
Greg Tatro
11 months ago

For a reference point on Hosmer…check out Carlos Beltran’s second year stats after his rookie of the year season…then his third year stats.

Hosmer will be fine. With the exception of Pujols (and even he struggled in April)every ball player goes through a period of struggling.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

A quick thought on Polk’s defense, it will give different numbers than the geographical systems, because it is eyeball generated, takes into account actual range of a fielder on a play and rewards the “exceptional play”, a concept going back to when errors were first used but never incorporated into the official score. The Polk defensive numbers hold up well in comparison to a system that has Getz’ glove worth 1.5 wins over Escobar or Gordon 2.4 wins above Escobar.

On Polk’s offense, it weights for runs and ribbies, contextual stats that are important in baseball but disparaged in games that try to isolate the individual player from his context. Also weights for “professional at-bats” and moving runners, team actions.

On Polk pitching, it stays surprisingly closer to fangraphs than I would expect.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Hey Scott, Butler is on pace for .300/30/95. That seems pretty special!!
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Jerry, I would actually disagree with the assumption that Hosmer has no range. If only b/c that is an uninformed opinion based on watching him play without taking into account the teams defensive positioning/philosophy. It seems as though the Royals middle infielders each shade to their respective holes between 1st & 2nd/2nd & 3rd more than they play a traditional position that would shade both more towards up the middle. Which allows the 1st/3rd basemen to hug the line more and prevent doubles down the line. It seems as though the Royals are almost conceding getting beat on a well hit ball back up the middle, which is considered the truest kind of hit and saying, in essence, “you beat me there”, rather than get beat on hits through the holes or down the line. I have watched/played A LOT of baseball in my life and I have noticed the last couple of seasons that the Royals tend to play their infield defense how I just described to you b/c it leads to fewer hole overall in their infield defense. However, due to this, Hosmer’s range to his right has been compromised b/c he still needs to be able to peel off and cover the bag. Also, I bet his range score is low b/c since he plays the line more than most 1st basemen he is not getting the same credit when he stops hits down the line b/c he doesn’t have to take as many steps to cover that area. Whereas your typical 1st baseman plays off the bag more b/c he is responsible for the hole between 1st & 2nd and thus has to take more steps to cover the balls hit down the line.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

Another factor on line play is that the Royals seem to always have a runner on 1st against them. That, and the shifts used, keep Hoz, on average, closer to the line than maybe the Nationals’ or White Sox’ 1B would be.

I think Hosmer has quick feet, good reflexes, and good range, just from watching him. And his reach and hands save a couple of bases every game it seems, as well as saving errors for the other three IFs.
Terry Payne
11 months ago

Hos is on pace for aprox 15 hrs, 70 rbi. While that is not desirable #s for a corner infielder, it’s still not bad production for a guy hitting 6th or so and who is an exceptional glove man.

Seamheads sometimes need to take a sabremetric step back and look at the big picture.

Anyone recommending he be traded will feel like crap when his bat explodes.
Don Aubry
11 months ago

I’m sure they talk all of the time, but it seems like one who can relate a bit to what Hosmer is going through is Moustakis. He dug a huge hole for himself last year and found a way to climb out of it. If he could deliver a can of whatever it was he found last year to Hosmer, it would be fun to watch the ride.

It seems that patience is something necessary to baseball management, but frustrating to fans. The patience that management showed with Escobar and Moustakis last year appears to be paying off this year. Patience over the years is now paying dividends with Gordon. After settling on the right spot in the order for him, Gordon has climbed back close to what was expected of him this year. (The argument can surely be made, however, that management was far to patient with Sanchez.) It’s not overly optimistic to believe that Hosmer will reward management and fans for slogging through his struggles with him.
Matthew Tiemeyer
11 months ago

A little context following up on my comment from last night regarding Ichiro. Ichiro has racked up six hits in this series in 15 at-bats, one of them being a triple. This splurge has boosted his OPS to .641.

That gets him all the way to within seven points of…Eric Hosmer, whose OPS is .648.

Conclusion, since .648 is abysmal: Both of these players are hurting their teams at positions normally reserved for players who are strong offensively.

There’s a difference, though. Hosmer is at the beginning of his career and could easily start raking at any moment (whether that requires a trip to AAA or not, I don’t know). He could be Bob Hamelin reincarnated, but there’s an outstanding chance that he isn’t. Ichiro is what he is, as he has thousands and thousands of at-bats that are trending lower over the course of several years. Once he was to be feared, since you can drive a pretty high OPS with an avg of .350. At .260, you can’t.

In response to Terry, from what I assume to be the position of a seamhead: I absolutely agree that anyone suggesting that Hosmer is traded will indeed feel gut-punched when he breaks out. But that doesn’t mean he’s doing any good for the offense right now. I think he will, but the 15 hrs and 70 rbis will have minimal meaning in the context of all the outs he’s been making.
Matthew Tiemeyer
11 months ago

I was a bit unclear above. You can definitely drive a high OPS with an average of .260, if you’re someone like vintage Jason Giambi. If you’re a singles hitter who never takes a walk, your .260 average will be empty.

By the way, I encourage everyone to recognize what Alex Gordon is doing at the moment. His OBP is now equivalent to last year’s. Slugging percentage is not, but I’m excited that he may be settling in to the kind of production that we can expect from him going forward. Might even get some more fastballs to hit with Escobar hitting behind him, which could give his power a shot in the arm.

Judging the Royals