Judging the Royals

Kansas City Star

Games » Detroit Tigers

Jul8

Let's take a break

Lee Judge

The Kansas City Star

After losing to Detroit 7-1, the Royals have fallen back to 10 games under .500. After the game, Ned Yost was asked if the All-Star break was coming at a good time. Ned said the All-Star break always comes at a good time. Players — and certain sportswriters — are tired. Mentally recharging for four days and stepping back on the field in five isn’t much of a rest, but it’s all baseball allows.

Here’s what a few of the players have done in the first half. (I’d like to lie to you and say I looked these numbers up on my own, but I got them from the Joel Goldberg Show.)

Alcides Escobar leads the team with a .307 batting average. Esky is becoming one of the premier shortstops in baseball and Ned Yost — who stuck with him last season — deserves some credit. Ned is now asking Escobar to step up his game and take on the role of hitting second in the order.

Frankly, it’s mentally easier for many players to hit at the bottom of the order. A player can relax and figure whatever he does hitting eighth is OK; expectations aren’t too high. It looks like the Royals have decided they can’t afford a .300 hitter in the 8-hole — too many other hitters aren’t producing. Yost protected Escobar last year, now he appears to be challenging him to handle a bigger role.

Mike Moustakas leads the team in extra-base hits with 36 — and Ned Yost deserves some credit for sticking with him last season as well. Moose has also shown remarkable improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Last season I kidded him about how many times Eric Hosmer saved one of this scattershot throws. This season it’s become routine to see Moose dive and come up throwing a strike across the diamond.

Billy Butler leads the team in home runs (16) and RBIs (52). In 2011, Butler was asked to sacrifice some average for some power. Billy started holding his hands higher and hitting down through the baseball. This adjustment has imparted rising backspin to the ball and we’re seeing the results. Billy comes in for his fair share of criticism for the other parts of his game, but when he steps into the batter’s box, Butler’s one of the best.

Jarrod Dyson leads the team in stolen bases with 15. As I’ve been saying since spring training, pitchers are speeding up their delivery times to shut down the running game. Jeff Francoeur is a perfect example: last season Jeff had 22 stolen bases, so far this season he has one. The Royals expect the team’s true base stealers (Dyson, Escobar and Getz) to continue their base running thievery at a fairly high rate but think the other players will run “situationally” — in breaking ball counts or when there’s reason to believe other factors present an opportunity. (Moose got one of these “situational” steals the other night when the Royals didn’t believe the third baseman would cover the bag because of the pitch thrown — the Royals guessed right and Mike stole third.)

Alex Gordon has once again reacted well to hitting leadoff. He leads the team in walks (46) and runs scored (48). It would be nice if Alex were one of the true base stealers or could cut down on his strikeouts (he leads the team with 69) but you can’t have everything…apparently.

Bruce Chen leads the team in wins with 7, Luke Hochevar is second with 6 and reliever Tim Collins is third with 4 — and that’s a problem. The starting pitchers have not pitched consistently well or consistently deep into games. The starter with the best ERA is Luis Mendoza with a 4.50 and the only starters who look like they’ll come anywhere close to giving the club 200 innings are Chen and Luke Hochevar. As a result, manger Ned Yost has gone to the pen early and often. When fans hear that Royals have used the pen more often than any other team, they worry about the relievers getting burned out.

Fortunately — as has previously been pointed out on this site and not by me — a lot of those innings have been picked up by long relievers. The Royals have kept the innings down on the other relievers by shuttling pitchers like Nate Adcock back and forth between Omaha and KC. I don’t know what the ideal number of relief innings is for each pitcher and I know Yost worries about burning out the pen, but no reliever is on pace to throw 90 innings in relief. (As a point of comparison, the most innings Jeff Montgomery threw in a single season was 94 and a third.) The Royals probably have target numbers for each reliever but haven’t shared those with me.

The reliever with the best ERA is Jose Mijares (1.62). Not a huge surprise, Jose generally gets used in situations favorable to a left-handed reliever, mostly facing left-handed hitters. Chen leads the team in strikeouts with 72 and Tim Collins leads the relievers in strikeouts with 59. Tim almost leads the team in WHIP (walks/hits per inning pitched), but that honor goes to Mitch Maier. (I miss that guy already.)

OK, so the Royals take a few days off and then get back to the grind on Friday.

They’re going to have to make a decision on Chris Getz. He’s apparently healthy and ready to play, but, even though Getz is a better defender and base runner and has hit for a higher average than Yuniesky Betancourt, Yuni has been driving in runs for the last month. The team may not want to give up that offense to get a better defender on the field — at least until Yuni cools down.

It sounds like they’re trying to get Jeff Francoeur back to the approach that he took last season. They want Jeff to lay off the inside fastball. In Sunday’s game, Frenchy was out in front on two sliders. Trying to swing early enough to hit 95 inside can make you early on everything else and that makes your pitch selection go to hell.

They still don’t know what they have in Lorenzo Cain, and if Wil Myers plays well in the Futures Game, there will be more public pressure to get him up here (which I’m guessing will have zero effect on the Royals front office…and that’s the right number…you can’t run teams based on sports talk radio. The Royals plan on bringing Myers up when they think he’s ready to stay and play).

OK, I’m skipping my usual game breakdown after Sunday’s loss. Let’s leave it at this: Ned Yost brought in Tim Collins to face Prince Fielder even though he already had a lefty on the mound (Everett Teaford). Ned thought it was a crucial moment in the game (it was) and figured Collins’ curve and change-up gave him a better chance of getting Fielder out. Collins never got to the off-speed stuff. Tim tried to get ahead with a fastball and Prince almost hit a right-field concession stand with it. Three-run bomb, game pretty much over.

The All-Star break

Normally, I get to take the All-Star break off, but someone came up with the crazy idea of holding the game here in KC, so I’ll continue to work, at least for the first couple of days of the break. This is a big deal because I’ve had a total of two days off since I left for spring training in mid-March.

I’m either drawing a political cartoon for the editorial page or reporting on a ball game for the sports department and on most days I do both. (Sorry, just needed to get a little whining in there about my work schedule.) The end result of this slave-driving and future worker compensation lawsuit is that there will be fresh material on the site over the break.

Tomorrow, we’ll post a column about the people who throw the pitches to the home run derby contestants — it’s harder than you might think — and Tuesday I’ll cover the game in the same way I cover Royals games. I’ll look for key moments that might go unnoticed and try to break down what’s behind those moments: why players, coaches and managers did what they did.

We’ll also be adding new videos: currently we have a video of Steve Palermo talking about umpiring in the All-Star Game (you might pull for the American or National Leagues; Steve pulls for the umpires to get the calls right) and we’ll soon post a video of Jeff Montgomery talking about performing in All-Star Games and his advice for Billy Butler, who is dealing with his first appearance.

Monday I’ll go out to Kauffman and see who I can talk to (it’s going to be a crazy scene) and post videos from those encounters.

All I can tell you is keep checking in. Billy Butler is not the only one making his first All-Star Game appearance. I’ll be doing an awful lot of playing-it-by-ear over the next few days. It should be interesting — and tiring. My next day off is in November.

Comments

  1. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Are you going to be able to do a first half analysis like last year? As I recall, that one got a lot of attention:)

    One thought that has been bugging me about this last series, probably my own fault, is that I saw it as a “statement” series where the young team either showed it had the maturity and experience to take care of business or it would say that they just aren’t ready yet. We’ll see what they do with Chicago, but this is tipping point territory and I think another flat series will see some people moved to Omaha or other teams and the beginnings of the next wave starting to come up. One or two runs per game just won’t work and Dayton Moore is going to be much less likely to spend $30 mil to bring in pitchers to lose 2-1 and 3-2 games.

  2. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Scored 7,2,9 three previous games

  3. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Jim: Because of the All-Star game, they have me booked doing other things. I don’t know if I’ll get a first-half player analysis, but I’m planning on one at the end of the year.

  4. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    The three before that were 1, 3, 11. Before that was 1, 2, 3, 4. Zack Greinke would be 2-5 with that support, as would Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander 4-3. The SP has been rough, losing the two best starters to TJS, but the offense has way underperformed what was expected and what the talent predicted.

    This from B-R gives the scores on the chart:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2012.shtml

    RPG is down about .35 from last year.

  5. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Lee some people would love your job, instead of being out in the hot sun all day, busting our tails. I don’t know why you are whining. I’ll switch you jobs just hit me up, although my drawing skills are sub-par.

  6. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Watched most of the futures game (missed 1st and 6th innings, so I missed our pitchers :(), my takeaway was that George knew what he was doing - a lot of the fans were KC fans there to see OUR guys, especially Wil. George paid them back and their loud cheers for Myers by leaving him in all game, I loved that.

  7. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Josh: Generally, my job—or jobs—is/are—a lot of fun, but 18-hour work days get old no matter how much fun you’re having.

    If major league baseball would play four times a week and make them all day games, I’d really appreciate it.

    So far no luck with that request, so I’ll just keep grinding.

  8. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Really pointless to spend time arguing what’s worse. They’re both bad. Next 10 games after the ASG will be big.

  9. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    What a depressing first half of the season. I really thought the Royals were better than this, but there’s no sign that our record is the product of bad luck.

    I hope to see Odorizzi up in the second half, but at this point, I think I’d rather see Myers stay in Omaha the rest of the year (the bat is clearly ready, but from the futures game, it looks like he could use the time to work on his outfield reads) and wait to start his service time clock until next year.

    I do believe in our young core, but we have to get better at evaluating veterans. Francoeur and Melky were revelations last year, but this year’s crop (Francoeur, Chen, and Betancourt) have been bad or worse. We need to get better at that in a hurry.

    This offseason will be key. Glass has booked significant profits this year and last. If he cares about winning (and I think that’s debatable), we need to spend a lot of that money on free-agent pitching. This crummy season is probably going to force us to pay more (I think it probably takes us out of the running for Greinke) but I think we need to bring in a couple guys like Anibal Sanchez and Ryan Dempster if we want to have a chance at completing Dayton’s 8-year plan.

  10. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Ok, this isn’t meant as a flame post but a curiousity question. I have read lots of comments over time that mention how Glass is making a significant profit off the Royals’ operation. Where do you find that kind of information? I thought that information was proprietary. During the last few rounds of negotiations between the players and owners, no one could agree on what the real figures were.

  11. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    There are two different ways of concluding that Glass has booked significant profits over the last two years.

    1) Forbes estimates the income statements for each MLB team each year using a variety of sources. When several teams’ actual financial statements were leaked to Deadspin a couple years ago, the Forbes numbers for those teams were shown to be generally correct although too conservative (the teams were booking larger profits than Forbes estimated). Forbes estimates that the Royals had been running profits in the $5-$10M range before 2011.

    2) Even if you accept Glass’ assertion that the team has been run on a breakeven basis (which I don’t, because it’s too hard to square with other numbers), the payroll this year and last has been well below the previous years, even as the renovations and higher ticket sales have driven up revenue considerably.

  12. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Thank you Brendan. $5-10 million doesn’t sound like it would buy a decent starting pitcher. I also have not been able to find when the Royals’ $25 million outlay for renovations has or will be paid. I also don’t know what percent of total revenues ticket sales account for with the Royals. I do know their broadcast contract is now woefully underpriced relative to other teams.

  13. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    Bruce Chen’s contract + $10M is Jered Weaver’s contract.

    Obviously that’s a pretty extreme example, but the difference between a $5M pitcher and a $15M pitcher is pretty huge.

  14. 10 months, 2 weeks ago

    I can’t find any information on the web on the Royals’ operating budget for 2011 other than they ranked last in player payroll size at just over $36 million.

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