Games: Detroit Tigers, July 6: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Detroit Tigers

Jul6

Signs of life

You know those doctor shows where they put the jumper cables on the dead guy, spark him up and everybody waits for the doohickey on the heart monitor to ping? Jonathan Sanchez‘ heart monitor may have just pinged. It doesn’t mean he’s out of the woods or that he’s fixed, but, despite an ugly line in the box score, Sanchez showed better tempo, had a better ball-strike ratio, kept the Royals in the game and gave fans some reason to hope for something better than they’ve seen so far.

In short: Sanchez showed signs of life (and I showed an appalling lack of medical knowledge.)

Second inning: Billy Butler hits a ball in the left center gap and, even though he didn’t hit it well, the difference between Comerica Park and Rogers Centre is immediately evident: the ball slows in the thick grass and comes nowhere near splitting the outfielders.

Detroit starting pitcher Drew Smyly goes on to strike out the side and winds up with 10 strikeouts on the day. Most of the strikeouts come on curve balls, and after the game Ned Yost says it was tough to see the ball for the first four innings.

In the bottom of the inning Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer combine on a difficult 5-3. When fans think of infield defense, they often think of glove work. But part of what makes Hosmer special is quick footwork and his ability to move around the bag and extend his reach by shifting his feet.

Third inning: If the lighting bothered the Royals for the first four innings, the Tigers got over it an inning sooner with two singles and a triple in the third. The No. 2 hitter, Quintin Berry, is standing on third following his triple, and there is one out in the inning. The Royals bring the infield in with Miguel Cabrera at the plate. Cabrera hits a chopper to third and Mike Moustakas shows he’s paying attention: Moose tries to catch Berry off the base — unsuccessfully — and then throws the ball to first for the out.

What’s significant about this play is that Moustakas knew he had time to try for Berry with Cabrera running. Infielders need to know who is running and how much time they have — good infielders pay attention.

Fifth inning: With one down, Moustakas doubles. Mike lays off several breaking pitches out of the zone before doing so. It’s Mike’s second at-bat, and he appears to picking up the breaking ball a little earlier in its flight. Brayan Pena doubles, driving in Moustakas and Jason Borgeois singles, driving in Pena. Borgeois advances on the throw home. It’s worth noting because Bourgeois pulls off the move he attempted just before the Royals went on the road.

Back then the runner was Salvador Perez. Bourgeois thought Perez was headed home and took off for second, hoping to draw the throw away from home plate. But Eddie Rodriguez held up Perez and Jason was thrown out trying to advance. This time the move works, Pena scores, Bourgeois advances to second and the Royals get another at-bat with a runner in scoring position. Alex Gordon grounds out, Royals 2-Tigers 2.

Sixth inning: Billy Butler singles with two down. Next, Yuniesky Betancourt drives the ball deep to left, the ball goes in and out of Delmon Young’s glove, bounces off the fence and Young falls down on the warning track. Billy Butler gets to third base. This is one of the downsides to Butler’s game: he clogs the bases. On the other hand, he’s the Royals best hitter — nobody’s perfect.

With Billy on third, Mike Moustakas is at the plate and a ball in the dirt gets away from Tigers catcher Alex Avila. Butler, who appears to have a short lead despite Miguel Cabrera being well off the bag (the base runner can be as far from third base as the third baseman), also appears to take a half-hearted secondary lead and is not in position to take advantage of the ball skipping away. Moustakas grounds out, the Royal do not score. Game still tied, 2-2.

In the bottom of the inning the game gets untied: with Prince Fielder on first base, Delmon Young homers. The pitch is an 87-mph fastball at the top of the zone. It’s hard to pitch up in the zone at 87 mph, but not impossible. The next batter, Ryan Raburn, gets an almost identical pitch (88 mph) in the same location and pops up to Alex Gordon. A fraction of in inch difference and the Tigers go ahead to stay, 4-2.

Other stuff

Rex Hudler said he asked Alcides Escobar if the ball he supposedly fouled off his foot in Toronto actually hit him and Esky just winked.

If I’ve done the math right — two days on, one day off — Kelvin Herrera was not available for this game. Following the same formula, Jose Mijares would not be available on Saturday. Even though Mijares had a short outing Thursday, the warm-up is as significant as the number of pitches thrown.

Managers not only need to know who is not available in their pen, they also need to know who is not available in the opposition’s pen. It’s not unheard of for a manager to have a relief pitcher who isn’t actually available get up and move around in the pen as if he were getting ready to pitch. That sends a false signal to the other dugout.

Comerica Park review

Last stop before the All-Star break and, as Doug Sisson pointed out in his video review, the Royals are now back in a pitcher’s park. Detroit’s Comerica Park is 346 feet to the foul pole down the left field line, but that’s a little misleading since the wall drops off even deeper almost immediately. It’s 402 to the left center gap, 422 in dead center, 379 in right center and 330 in the right field corner.

That 422 in dead center field changes what a pitcher can throw. A pitcher can get aggressive in the middle of the plate, use the big part of the park and let his centerfielder run it down (and we saw several examples in this game). But the pitcher’s got to keep the ball in the big part of the park — let a hitter drive it down either line and the seats are much more reachable.

The same pitching tactic — using center field as a graveyard for fly balls — would be a mistake in Toronto’s Rogers Centre (was it eight home runs in the four-game series?) where the ball carries better and the centerfield wall is within reach.

Another difference we’ll probably notice over the weekend: Detroit’s surface is natural grass and thick natural grass at that. The ball will be less likely to split two outfielders (we saw that several times on Toronto’s fast synthetic turf) and outfielders will have to charge ground balls in front of them.

Comments

Curtis Ruder
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Lee, you are being too kind by half in your analysis, I think. Yes, it is true, Sanchez did not look as hopeless as he looked the last five or six times out. That being said, he benefited from the same twi-light that made Smyly look like Koufax for a few innings, and he failed both requirements of a quality start. If that is a sign of life, it is awfully faint.

No question Butler should have scored on two different times in that inning.

There are always interesting plays. But sometimes the game boils down to simple facts: when your 1-3 hitters go 0-12, then you almost always lose.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 2 weeks ago

A couple of thoughts on Jon Sanchez based on watching a little Game Day: His fb velocity is still stuck at 87-88, but tonight he could occasionally keep the pitches down. He’s managed to slow his change up sometimes, 82-83, got some speed separation. Oddly, the at-bats I saw, his slider was way up, above the zone, thought that kind of odd.

A further thought: We’re probably lucky that our currently weakest starter faced Drew Smyly, it would have been a waste of effort to get a 3-run complete game out of Bruce Chen on a night that Smyly pretty much dominated. The team’s biggest problem right now is not pitching, it is an offense that, on paper at least, should be productive too often scoring under 4 runs and too often leaving runners on 2nd. Maybe a few days off will do them some good. The division title is still in reach, but two runs a game just doesn’t win much in the AL.

A final thought: Been lots of noise about Jason Bourgeois. All he is doing is hitting .412/.474/.588 since his recall with 7 hits, 6 ribbies, and only 1 K in 19 PAs. He did exactly what Dayton Moore hoped for and is the stronger half of the platoon with Jarrod Dyson, at least at the plate.
Jared Dull
11 months, 2 weeks ago

He located a little better, but his velocity is still way down compared to his previous seasons.

The Sanchez I thought we were getting is the one that throws around 91-92 and tops out at 95-96. He seems to be around 88-89, topping at 91.

Isn’t there concern for this? I haven’t heard Yost or anyone else address it.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 2 weeks ago

I’m sure there is concern, but Sanchez had a shoulder injury last season and a forearm injury this year. The velocity tells me that something is still not physically right. That’s the risk of gambling on injured pitchers.

Dayton Moore picked up three throwers who had injuries last year: Jon Broxton, Jose Mijares, and Jon Sanchez. Two out of three ain’t bad. I thought Sanchez did pitch better tonight, so maybe he’s healing up and getting stronger. We’ll see. Maybe the time off will help him and the pathetic offense. Time for the kids to step up and show that they want to be champions. I want the playoffs this year and think we have the talent, but they have got to execute.
Jared Dull
11 months, 2 weeks ago

If he’s not physically right, should he even be in there?

The bar seems to be a little low for what was supposed to be their best acquisition. I mean, we’re sitting here saying that 4 runs in 5 and 2/3 is positive.

If his velocity was there I could see waiting it out a little longer. But there’s no way, with that velocity, he’s a better option than Ordorizzi or Verdugo.
Lee Judge
11 months, 2 weeks ago

I don’t think anyone, including me, is saying that Jonathan Sanchez pitched well last night, they’re saying he pitched better.

Some of his statements in the past—the hitter’s just got lucky—made Sanchez seem as though he was in denial. After his last bad outing he was starting to sound different, admitting that things weren’t working.

So seeing Sanchez come out with a different tempo and throwing strikes was encouraging. It was easy to spot, previously he’s been working slow and nibbling. In his five and two thirds innings last night he threw two inning using less than 10 pitches.

Seeing a guy continue to take the same approach and be in denial about the results gives you no reason to believe things are ever going to change.

See a guy make some kind of adjustment and have at least better results, gives you hope that he’ll continue to improve—a sign of life.

Everybody’s looking for any sign that Sanchez will get straightened out, last night there were signs that he’s trying to take a different approach.

P.S. I haven’t heard any suggestion that Sanchez isn’t 100% healthy, but that’s hardly something they’d share with me.

High draft picks and guys who get paid a lot are going to get every chance to prove the organization right. Ball clubs are slow to give up on a big investment.

Players like Alex Gordon can make that look like a smart philosophy. Other players make it look foolish.
Joe Reubens
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Sanchez did show improvement (especially his strikes/balls ratio) but it would be hard to not improve based on his performance this year. I give him at most five more starts to see if he can continue to improve.

I’m not sure what protocol is for passed balls with a runner on third but it looked like Moose may have kept Billy from attempting to score. Yes, Billy is slow and didn’t have a great lead but when the ball skipped away Moose just stood it he batters box and held up his hand telling Billy to stay. In that situation if Billy thinks he can score should he just run and hope Moose gets out of the way? Or should he follow Moose’s sign? Seemed like Moose didn’t realize how far the ball got away from Avila.

And I would love to get a 3 run complete game out of Bruce Chen.
Jared Dull
11 months, 2 weeks ago

This is a graph of Sanchez velocity range/average going back to 2007. Its from March after his first spring training outing, so that’s what the last bar is referring to. Even though it was just spring training, it looks very similar to what we’ve been seeing from him so far this year. Something isn’t right physically and/or mechanically, whether they want to address the media about it or not.

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/996477/Sanchez.png
Lee Judge
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Joe: You may be more patient with Sanchez than the Royals. I haven’t heard anything specific, but Yost was asked if Sanchez had earned another start and he said yes.

It made it sound like they’re going start by start, although that might not be the case.

And I saw the same thing you did, Moose signaled Billy to stay. The base runner usually breaks on his own—there’s no time to look around before taking off.

The hitter is most useful when the read is difficult—the ball is hidden by the catcher or umpire or rolling directly away from the runner so there’s no perspective.

The ball was behind Mike, so you’re right, he may not have been aware how far it rolled, but Mike is also aware that Billy is an unlikely candidate to advance on wild pitches.

I don’t know if Billy would have made it if he tried, but I thought his initial and secondary lead took away the option.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Royals’ patience with Jon Sanchez at the moment is based on the hope that he can put a few nice games together so he can get traded. He was always a candidate for a deadline trade, as are Mijares and Broxton, but his value isn’t real high right now, so he’ll pitch again unless the team doctors can get a firm diagnosis. Jared’s chart gives a candlestick graphic for what we have been seeing, decreasing velocity corresponding to his injuries last season. As I remember, Luke Hochevar had a similar trend from ‘10 through the first half of last year, when his velocity started back up.
Anthony L. Monley
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Jim- Not sure on why you insist on saying the pitching isn’t the problem, that our hitting is. Our team ERA is 24th worst among all MLB teams. Our runs per game is 21st worst. Obviously, they’re both bad, but let’s not pretend ‘pitching isn’t the problem.’ It’s a huge problem (one of many, many problems).
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Anthony, we scored two runs last night and one of our stars left runners on 2nd, two outs, twice. Considering the talent we have among starting position players, 5 #1 picks as I recall, two runs is not acceptable and it’s not enough in the American league. Royals are 13th in runs scored in the AL, 12th in ERA between Boston and Toronto and well ahead of Cleveland. I think our pitchers are overachieving and the offense is underachieving. But opinions can vary.

The counter argument might be the three #1 picks on the pitching staff, Duffy hurt, Hochevar underachieving, and Crow going into his summertime melt.

The reason I think hitting is the bigger problem is that it should be most easily fixable in-house, as the talent is there, unlike with pitching where our two top starters recently went under the knife.
Josh Heer
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Judging by today’s game I think it once again shows that though the offense fails to show consistency… Starting pitcher is still the biggest weakness… The hitting will get better with the additions of Cain and hopefully the absence of Frenchy in the regular day line-up . I would not mid Jeff as the fourth outfielder but he is useless in the line up. Wil deserves a chance. But I doubt that will happen.

Judging the Royals