Games: Toronto Blue Jays, July 5: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Toronto Blue Jays

Jul5

Halfway home

This was the 81st game of the season — the Royals are halfway home. They’re currently 37-44, not great, but not as bad as it could be, considering the losing streak they weathered at the beginning of the year. They’ve been playing winning baseball since that streak ended and won this game 9-6 to split the series with Toronto. Nine runs, 16 hits and it still wasn’t an easy win.

Third inning: When a team is not overly familiar with a pitcher, they may take pitches early on. They may be making outs but gaining information. Even though they’ve seen video and read reports, nothing replaces seeing a pitcher live.

So for the first two innings the Royals go 1-2-3, but they’re seeing what Henderson Alvarez looks like in the flesh. That may be why the game’s first rally started with the Royals 8- and 9-hole hitters. If they were watching — and major-leaguers generally are — they were getting a feel for what the Toronto starter was doing.

Salvador Perez singles, Jarrod Dyson doubles and now the top of the order gets a second whack at Alvarez. Alex Gordon walks, Alcides Escobar singles, Eric Hosmer singles, Billy Butler singles, Yuniesky Betancourt walks and Mike Moustakas hits a sacrifice fly, Royals 5, Blue Jays 0.

Henderson Alvarez throws 41 pitches to get through the inning. Fans sometimes wonder why a manager leaves a starter in the game when he’s getting knocked around early. The answer often lies in the not-too-distant future. If Alvarez is pulled after two and a third innings, the Jays will chew up their bullpen, supplying six and two-thirds innings to finish the game. That can spell trouble for the next game or even the next series. By going five and a third innings, Alvarez saves the Toronto pen some wear and tear.

In the bottom of the inning the Blue Jays answer with a leadoff double and a J.P. Arencibia home run. Here are the pitches Arencibia saw:

1.) 88 MPH, Cutter, Swinging Strike 2.) 78 MPH Curveball, Ball 3.) 93 MPH Sinker, Foul 4.) 95 MPH Fastball (Four-seam), Ball 5.) 85 MPH Slider, Ball 6.) 85 MPH Slider, Home Run.

Arencibia saw six pitches. The fastest pitch was a 95 MPH four-seam fastball, the slowest pitch, a 78 MPH curve. 17 miles an hour difference in speed. The other four pitches were between 88 and 93 miles an hour, 5 miles an hour difference in speed. This may be an example of what the Royals have been talking about: Hochevar gets in trouble if he throws too many pitches around the same velocity. If so, Hochevar makes an adjustment, finishing the inning and two more without another run scoring.

Fourth inning: Two outs, Alex Gordon on first and Alcides Escobar doubles down into the left field corner. Left fielder Rajai Davis is moving to his right and away from the infield. Davis gets rid of the ball quickly, but has no momentum behind the throw. Royals third base coach Eddie Rodriguez, holds up Gordon.

Eric Hosmer, the Royals’ number three hitter, is on deck but is only hitting .233. On the other hand, at this point in the game, he’s hitting .500 (1 for 2) against Henderson Alvarez. If Eddie Rodriguez believes Hosmer has a better chance of hitting Alvarez than Gordon does of beating the throw home, he should put up the stop sign. If Eddie thinks Gordon has a better chance of scoring than Hosmer does of hitting Alvarez, Gordon should be sent home.

Eddie stops Gordon and Hosmer grounds out.

Fifth inning: With two outs, Hochevar makes a mental mistake. A ground ball is hit to Eric Hosmer and Hochevar breaks for first base. Pitchers are supposed to break hard to cover the bag on any ball hit to their left. Luke starts for the bag, assumes Hosmer is going to handle the play himself and when Hosmer bobbles the ball, Hochevar has start running hard again. Luke is late, the runner is safe and Hochevar costs Hosmer an error and himself an ankle injury. Somewhere during the play, Hochevar has hurt himself and leaves after five innings.

Eighth inning: The Royals will score three times before the inning is over. In the bottom half of the inning the Blue Jays will respond with three runs of their own. With the bases loaded and two outs, Eric Hosmer steps to the plate to face Francisco Cordero. Hosmer hits the ball to the right side and Cordero makes the mistake of checking to see if he’s needed before breaking to first base.

Baseball punishes those who do not do the routine, routinely.

Hosmer beats Cordero to the bag, Salvador Perez scores from third and Jarrod Dyson scores from second — on a ball that never left the infield. With two down, Dyson hits third base and keeps going. Cordero didn’t run when he should’ve, Dyson was running until he saw the third out. Jarrod’s heads-up base running buys the Royals another run.

Ninth inning: Yuniesky Betancourt continues his RBI hot streak, homering in the top of the inning and Jonathan Broxton — aided by a Moustakas-Hosmer double play — gets the save. Royals win 9-6.

Home Run Derby selections

If you missed the story, the Angels’ Mark Trumbo was selected to participate in the Home Run Derby when Robinson Cano, the American League Home Run Derby captain (didn’t even know there was one) called Albert Pujols and asked him to participate. Pujols declined, because he’s not on the AL All-Star team, but suggested Cano pick Pujols’ teammate, Trumbo.

And Cano did it.

Nothing against Mark Trumbo, and I hope he gets a nice reception from the Kansas City fans, but this seems like a pretty haphazard way of selecting Derby participants. If I’m Billy Butler’s hitting coach, I’d be relieved I didn’t have to worry about Billy jacking up his swing during the Derby. (On the other hand, if I’m Billy Butler’s hitting coach I would’ve already jacked up his swing with bad advice.)

But I’m not Billy’s hitting coach, and it would’ve been pretty cool to see him come to the plate with most of a sellout crowd cheering for him. Where’s Bud Selig when you really need him?

A Mitch Maier story

(Every day the Royals are home I walk around the stadium talking to people. I rarely have a plan; most days I’ll get three story ideas walking from the clubhouse to the dugout and all three will be better than anything I could’ve come up with on my own. As a result, I don’t use everything, but save most of it in case it becomes useful later. Here’s a story that illustrates why people liked Mitch Maier.)

It’s the morning before a day game and Alex Gordon is watching video of that day’s starting pitcher. I often ask what the opposition pitcher does, and the answers are always interesting. Gordon says the guy he’ll face shortly throws a lot of “cutters” to left-handed batters. A cutter is a fastball held off-center which makes the pitch move sideways. A right-handed pitcher who throws a cutter to a left-handed batter will let the ball bore in on the hitter’s hands. So a fastball that starts down the middle might a great pitch to hit if it’s a four-seam straight fastball and a tough pitch to handle if it’s a cutter.

Spotting the difference seems pretty important. As Alex and I discuss this, Mitch Maier sits quietly nearby and listens. I ask Alex how you tell one pitch is a straight fastball and another is a cutter. Is it the release? Does the pitcher do something different with his hand? Is it possible to see the seams on the ball? Is the rotation any different? How about movement? Are the pitch trajectories different enough that you can tell them apart?

Mitch finally speaks up: “You know it’s a cutter when it comes inside and breaks your bat.”

MLB Umpire Steve Palermo talks The Star's Lee Judge

Former AL umpire Steve Palermo talked Friday with The Star's Lee Judge about his All-Star experiences at FanFest Friday. Video by Mike Ransdell, July 6, 2012

Comments

Joel Kallem
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Good to see the Royals bounce back to split the series. Salvy continues to show why he is a gem. Been a supporter of Hoch, but your sequence of his pitches show he still hasn’t got it entirely. One thing to get “beat” following the plan; another to get hit around because he goes back to the slider when he should be emphasizing the curve. I didn’t see him shake off Salvy, so maybe some of the blame lies there.
Derek Taylor
10 months, 3 weeks ago

It would have been nice to see Billy in the home run derby, but I think a strong case could also have been made for selecting Moose - I wonder why his name has not come up as often as someone that should have participated?
Donald Wilson
10 months, 3 weeks ago

I don’t necessarily agree with the TV announcers on the ball that was ruled to hit Escobar’s toe. They say that replays showed that it did not hit the toe but I’m not convinced of that. I was wishing someone would have asked him whether it did or not. What makes it even more convincing to me that maybe it didn’t was the fact that NO ONE from Toronto questioned the decision. Ryan and Rex was sure that it didn’t so they must have a better eye than me. It was so close I just don’t see how they can be sure of their decision.
Mark Harkins
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Great to see Dyson’s hustle play in the 8th. Those are the kinds of things that happen to: 1. Teams that are still “in it” and not just playing out the string. 2. Players who are fighing for playing time because there’s other talent in the system lurking at thier position.

Both of these things have been lacking around KC for quite a while. It’s really nice to see that both factors are relevant (although the “in it” part is fading a bit).
Curtis Ruder
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Donald,

Ryan at least indicated that the ball didn’t have any funny spin or flatten out the way a ball hit off the foot will usually spin, but just looked like a regular ground ball. So for him at least, his opinion was based on more than the replays of the batters’ box. I couldn’t tell from the replays either. I hope it hit his foot, mainly because if not, the dancing around to sell the call would have been pathetic, even if effective.
Tom Roesler
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Good stuff and a good win. This season the Royals seem to be so inconsistent that it’s messing with my mind. Some nights, the offense seems to be clicking. Other nights, nothing.

That inconsistency seems to be messing with my mind in that if the Royals don’t score early, I almost assume that they won’t score at all. It’s sad that I think that way and I wish I didn’t, but it’s happening.

When they went 1-2-3 in both innings one & two, following two games where they’d been shut down, I had sort of resigned myself to another night of little to no offense. Needless to say, the third was awesome. But, then after the third, I started thinking that would be the only inning we did anything. Again, the eighth inning really helped kick me out of that funk.

I’m not relaying any info here, just confessing what one Royals fan is experiencing this season at the mid-way point. My hope for the second half is that this team starts to find a little consistency. That comes with maturity and dependable starting pitching, so that’s part of it. If we can just avoid the whole “feast or famine” thing, that would be great.

But, in general, it’s so fun to watch a team that’s still coming together lay the foundation for a solid future. Every time I see Hos and Moose do their post-game leg shake, it makes me hope they spend their entire career in a Royals uniform. Probably won’t happen, but one can dream.

And, in the “Baseball lessons = life lesson’s” category, this is another one from Lee:

“Baseball punishes those who do not do the routine, routinely.”

So does life. Keep sawing wood everyone!
Nathan Coltrane
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Been looking at the actual point systems lately to see how they are doing. Even though the emphasis has not been on the points this year. Love that the top four are Moose, Butler, Hoz and Escobar.

What is really exciting is the points per game and total points for Salvador. 77 points for a 6.8 points per game, how valuable is that? Wow!! What is the most impressive to me is the consistency he shows. I think he is a huge key cog in this project 2012 and beyond.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Joel: My example of Hochevar throwing four pitches around the same speed may be unfair, he did mix in a faster and slower pitch. Maybe that’s enough to keep the hitter off balance.

But good hitters eliminate pitches. I didn’t understand that for a long time. I thought good hitters hit everything. In reality, they’re good hitters because they hit very little (mainly fastballs) and spit on everything else. That’s why, when they get their pitch, they don’t miss it.

Obviously, I still thought the pitch selection was worth mentioning. Billy Butler will figure out the percentage pitch in a situation—fastball or off-speed—and wait for that.

I don’t know if that’s what Arencibia did, but it’s possible.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Derek: I’d assume Moustakas didn’t get the same consideration for the Derby because he’s so new to the league—he’s got to wait his turn.

Donald and Curtis: I saw the replay of Esky’s foul ball off the foot several times and wasn’t convinced either way.

There is a saying in baseball, “If you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t trying.” The American Pastime seems to tolerate, even praise, the players who are smart enough to take advantage of the rules.

I can’t say Esky did that, can’t say he didn’t.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Tom: Most of the time I figure the offensive effort is directly related to the opposition pitcher. They don’t all forget how to hit at the same time or all suddenly remember what to do at the plate at the same time.

We should all be careful about confusing cause with correlation, but—after the game Hosmer said the second time through they made an adjustment. The third time through Alavarez appeared to make a counter-adjustment.

When players say it’s a game of adjustments, that’s what they mean. Who can figure out the pattern the other side is exhibiting and adjust first?

And I’m glad you enjoyed the line about doing the routine. I watched Clint Hurdle instruct a bunch of catchers and he talked about the need to run down the line and back up throws.

Clint said you could do that 99 times in a row and the one time you got lazy, baseball would make sure it was the one time the ball went into the dugout.

It’s still their job and they’ve got to do things right all the time, but you can see what a grind it is to do this stuff without fail 162 games a year. On the other hand, that’s exactly what winners do.

And remember, the best teams are still going to lose four out of ten. You can’t get too down when you’re in the middle of the four losses or too up in the midde of the six wins.

Baseball requires a whole lot of patience.
Aaron Bailey
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, since you “kind of” criticized Eddie Rodriguez for not sending Gordon home in the 4th, I think he deserves credit for waving Dyson home in the 8th on Hosmer’s infield single. Maybe Dyson would’ve kept running without Rodriguez’s encouragement, I don’t know, but the replay clearly showed Eddie’s arms a’waving.

On Escobar’s possible acting, commentators usually say that the brain can’t react that fast to think, ” fake being hit” when you’re so trained to run on contact; and since he probably would’ve beaten the relay throw to 1st and avoided a double play if he does take off right away, I’m inclined to think his toe was glanced.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Aaron: From what I saw on TV, I thought Eddie should have sent Gordon, but I’ve learned to wait until I can talk to the people involved before being too sure of myself.

Eddie may have thought of three things, that I haven’t, that made him do what he did.

And you’re right to point out that Eddie was encouraging Dyson to score. These guys don’t mind being criticzed as long as they think you’ll point out the good things they do as well.

That’s one of the reasons this site exists and players have been open about sharing information. I think (hope) they believe I’m going to look for the good as well as the bad and not make overly dramatic statements about players, coaches and management.

People might like to say this guy shouldn’t be in the major leagues or that guy is the worst manager ever, but ballplayers (and people) are a little more complex than that; a mix of positives and negatives.

Thanks for pointing out a positive that I missed.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Been quite a bit of opinion at the halfway point. Mine is that the Royals have done surprisingly well given the injuries to the pitching staff and losing three of the most important four defenders for various pieces of the season.

Now Perez is back, Cain and Getz look close. The pitching has performed fairly well and should be adequate from here out, give or take Jon Sanchez, so I’m still good with 82 wins, which just might take the division:) Would be nice if the offense could heat up a little more often, but it’s always something.
Don Aubry
10 months, 3 weeks ago

A thought about hope for the second half. We hear a lot about regression to the mean. I think that it means the same whether performance improves toward one’s average or declines toward one’s average. One might want to call overcoming disappointing performances progression toward the mean. In any event, we can probably hope to see progression from Hosmer, and even slightly - average wise - from Billy. Not that there is any evidence of it occurring, or that there he will even get another chance to provide evidence, but can you imagine what a second half Jon Sanchez would have if he could progress toward his mean. Progression to the mean would also bode well for a better second half from Francoeur.

On the other hand, we would have to hope the Escobar is on the way to developing a new baseline.
Curtis Ruder
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Just a quick aside, I hope:

I think your analysis of the decision to hold Gordon is incomplete. The break-even point is not whether Gordon is more likely to beat the throw than Hosmer is to get a hit. And the reason for that is that the pay-offs are different.

If Gordon scores, the Royals get one run and then Hosmer gets to hit with a runner on second.

If Hosmer gets a hit, especially given that there are two outs and it is a speedy runner at second base, it is much more likely that the Royals will score at least two runs.

I am going to make the simplifying assumption that the probability tails basically cancel each other out (the rare occasion when Hosmer walks, Billy gets plunked, and then Betancourt goes yard for a five run inning or some such). You should only send the runner in that circumstance when the probability of beating the throw is roughly two-times the probability of getting a hit from the next guy.

By setting them equal, you are basically eliminating the value of having the runner on second base. If Gordon is the tying or go-ahead run late, then the value of that run changes, but early in a close game, we don’t want to lose sight of his value.
Chuck Smith
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Unless I missed my counting, Hoch threw the slider in a 3-2 count. You’d think the hitter was looking for something solidly in the strike zone since he had just spit on the previous two balls. Now, did he get it too high in the strike zone or what not, I have no idea on. But overall, several changes in the pitch and the speed seems ok. Would have to ask which ones are considered his core pitches.

Also, any indication when Hoch doesn’t cover 1st quickly enough if he might have slowed down in response to the twist then burst through too late?
Jared Dull
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, Trumbo has been in the league about as long as Moose has. That’s the problem I have with it. Not because Trumbo’s numbers aren’t deserving, he’s having a phenomenal first half, but because it’s only his second year in the league.

Another thing, since when is the home run derby a team sport? Cano says he wanted to choose the best “team.” I can understand if they want 4 from each league, but who cares which league the winner comes from? It’s not like the game where home field advantage is at stake.

The participants should be based on what the fans want first and foremost. Not from just one guys opinion who, more than likely, has no clue what the fans want. I seriously doubt Robinson Cano has his finger on the pulse of the average baseball fan.

It’s a shame. Billy may not be known as a home run hitter, but he sends balls to the moon when he gets a hold of em. It would have been a lot of fun to watch!
Terry Payne
10 months, 3 weeks ago

“Arencibia” is almost as fun to say as “Saltalamacchia”

Why do catchers get all the fun names? Is it their cultural payment for the grilling their bodies take, playing the “kid’s game?”

Catcher is certainly the most underrated position in baseball. Anyone want to question that?
Thayne Griffin
10 months, 2 weeks ago

If the SS Exxon Sanchez leaks oil again tonight, I think Davis/Verdugo deserve their shot with us at the MLB level.

Loved the statistic I saw after the game last night: among active players Perez had the 6th-most hits in his first 50 games behind guys like Ichiro, Braun and some others (I don’t remember the names, but they were all star players and he was even ahead of Pujols!).

As for Hosmer’s 2-rbi infield single. Pure hustle by he and Dyson to get us those 2 key extra runs, love seeing that. As they say, “speed kills.”
Larry Tindle
10 months, 2 weeks ago

Heard an interesting interview with Tony LaRussa on XM Radio. They asked him what was different now than when he was managing. He said he understands more why managers and players get critizised by fans. The game looks a lot different when you can see the whole field. He said he had no idea how hit balls looked leaving the bat. Both flies and grounders. He said the dugout has the worst view at the park. He said he now seems to second guess someone every inning. Also it seemed a much slower game when watching from stands or on TV. Some of this may be paraphrased as I was driving and trying not to die at the time.
Lee Judge
10 months, 2 weeks ago

Larry: As they say, “The further you get from dirt, the easier the game becomes.”

Jared: What bothered me about the Home Run Derby selection of Trumbo was the idea that Pujols asks to have him in the contest as a favor and Cano complied.

Chuck: Hochevar’s “core pitches” are his four-seam fastball, curve and change. 12-14 mph of separation. His cutter, sinker and slider are all low 90s upper 80s, about 5 mph of separation.

And there’s no indication—at least that I’ve heard—that Hochevar hurt himself and then slowed. Haven’t heard definitively, but the assumption seems to be he twisted his ankle hitting the bag.

Curtis: I get your point about two runs if Hosmer gets a hit, but don’t agree with your conclusion. Say Hosmer gets a hit two times out of ten and Gordon scores three times out of ten: I don’t know of a base coach that would play worse odds in hopes of getting one more run, especially with two outs.

The attitude is very much take the bird in the hand with two down. The Royals were up 5-2 and at that point most teams are looking to tack on runs and make a comeback a bit more difficult.

But you raise an interesting point and it doesn’t mean you have to agree with the way it’s currently done.

Judging the Royals