Games: Tampa Bay Rays, June 26: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Tampa Bay Rays

Jun26

The offense comes alive

After the game, manager Ned Yost was asked about his offense. The Royals have scored eight runs in each of the last three games, and someone wanted to know what he was seeing from his team. “They’re scoring more runs.” Why? “That’s the $64 million question.” Ned has a very dry sense of humor and some ideas, but he has no absolute concrete answer as to why the Royals’ offense has suddenly come to life.

But later, in the clubhouse, Billy Butler had a theory: A very young team is learning from its mistakes. The Royals’ hitters are doing a better job of getting a ball in the strike zone. Earlier, the hitters were chasing pitcher’s pitches — balls out of the zone.

Once the hitters realize that any time a man is in scoring position with less than two outs, it’s the pitcher who is in trouble, not the hitter. The hitter will become more patient and make the pitcher come to him.

Game notes

First inning: Hideki Matsui had just hit a fly ball to Jarrod Dyson in center field. There was one out, and 6-foot, 2-inch, 225-pound Carlos Pena was tagging up at third base. Royals catcher Brayan Pena was waiting at the plate. Dyson’s throw beat the Rays’ base-runner. Brayan gloved the ball and then moved his bare hand into his catcher’s mitt in order to secure the ball with both hands. Brayan wanted the ball in his bare hand and his bare hand inside his mitt — completely secure.

But Brayan shifted his eyes to the base-runner too soon and lost the ball in the process.

After the game, Brayan saw me in the clubhouse and said he thought of me right after the play happened. We had recently talked about plays at the plate, and Brayan had told me that if you don’t catch the ball, nothing else matters. The best plate-blocking technique in the world makes no difference if you don’t have the ball.

“I took the hit,” Brayan said. He did, but we agreed that, just like an NFL wide receiver going over the middle, if you’re going to get hit anyway, you might as well catch the ball. (Brayan also had a walk, two singles and caught three pitchers who gave up a total of two runs, so it wasn’t all bad Tuesday night.)

Third inning: Jarrod Dyson was standing on first base when Alcides Escobar hit the ball into the right-center gap. Jarrod took a lead, then hit the gas when he saw Rays centerfielder B.J. Upton turn his back to the infield. That visual cue told Dyson that the ball was over Upton’s head. Jarrod hit second and raced for third.

Meanwhile, Upton played the carom off the wall well and got the ball back into the infield quickly. Royals third-base coach Eddie Rodriguez threw up the stop sign, and Dyson skidded to a halt. The ball got away at home plate, and Dyson once again accelerated and scored easily.

After the game, I ask Dyson whether the stop sign came late, and he said it didn’t matter. He was going to make a very aggressive turn no matter what and hit the brakes if necessary. I then asked Dyson how many strides it takes for him to get up to full speed. He said three.

I have no idea what that’s like. I have no top speed, and it takes me about 15 steps to reach it.

Fifth inning: Royals starter Bruce Chen was pitching to Brooks Conrad. The Rays second baseman had homered in his first at-bat, but this time Chen and Pena got him out on three pitches, a 71-mph curveball, a 76-mph change-up and an 88-mph four-seam fastball that blew by Conrad as if it were 98.

Slow the bats down then speed them up, or speed the bats up then slow them down. Chen was — as Ned Yost described it — “working the accelerator.”

Eighth inning: The Royals led 4-2, and closer Jonathan Broxton was warming up to pitch in the top of the ninth. Alex Gordon was standing on second base. He had doubled and Yuniesky Betancourt, trying to hit the ball to the right side and move Alex to third, had popped out to first. The Rays decided to intentionally walk left-handed hitter Mike Moustakas to get to the right-handed Billy Butler. This also set up a potential double play.

The pitcher was right-hander Brandon Gomes, and before Billy walked to the plate, Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer gave Billy some useful information: Gomes throws his fastball 42 percent of the time. The rest of the time he throws a slider or a splitter.

In his previous at-bat, Billy was right on a fastball, so this time Butler thought he would get something off-speed from Gomes. He did: two sliders out of the zone and then a splitter. Billy was ready for the splitter and lined it into center field for a single. Alex Gordon scored, and the Royals tacked on three more runs before the inning was over.

Jonathan Broxton sat down, and Francisley Bueno came out to finish the game.

Just managing

I asked Ned what it was like managing in the National League compared with the American League, and no surprise, it’s more complicated. The biggest difference is the need to think further ahead in the NL. When the Royals played in St. Louis under National League rules, I saw Ned set up a ninth-inning matchup with a double switch in the seventh.

Ned told me there might be a situation when he wants to use Greg Holland to get the final out of an inning and then send him back out to get three more. In the AL, no problem. In the NL, Yost might have to deal with the pitcher’s spot leading off the top of the next inning. If you’re not careful, it’s very easy to manage yourself in to a corner when playing in the National League.

And speaking of managing, Royals first-base coach Doug Sisson and I were talking about the use of the intentional walk. Is setting up your defense with force outs worth giving the opposition extra base-runners? (Bypassing a good hitter with a weaker hitter on deck is a different situation.)

Doug said different people see it differently. Generally, there’s more than one way to skin a cat in this game, and sometimes there can be more than one legitimate choice. I think that’s a lesson for all of us. It doesn’t mean fans can never criticize a move their team makes, but it does mean that criticism often needs to be tempered with the knowledge that the manager isn’t an idiot. He just saw the situation differently than you did.

How do you get to Carnegie Hall?

Practice, practice, practice. It was 3:30 on Monday afternoon, and it was smoking hot at the K. To give the guys a break, the Royals had called off outfielders throwing to bases (they do it the first game of every series). They had two day games in the heat over the weekend, and they were taking a break from the weather.

But the catchers still came out to throw. Chino Cadahia had them practicing their footwork and showing them how it affected their throws to second base. Brayan Pena, Humberto Quintero and Salvador Perez weren’t out there for long, but it still was long enough that all of them were streaming sweat as they left the field.

It was a small moment on hot afternoon in an empty stadium, but it was one that demonstrated what it took to perform well that night when the crowd was watching.

Monday’s base-running

A bit more information on those base-running outs made in the five-run third inning of Monday night’s game: Doug Sisson, who is also the Royals base-running coach, confirmed that the coaches were OK with Billy Butler attempting go first base to third with one out. That is the time you try it, and conditions were right. It’s a play that the Royals feel will pay off in the long run.

Doug said he thinks that when you play in a big park on a team without much power, you better figure out a way to get runs across the plate with a minimum of hits.

And that brings us to the other base-running out. Salvador Perez was rounding first and breaking for second as Eric Hosmer was headed home. Doug said it wasn’t a sure thing that Hosmer would score and Sal getting the throw cut and drawing it in a new direction was a good play.

As long as the run is significant — and tack-on runs are — Doug said he would trade the third out of an inning for a run any day of the week. He figured it would have taken two hits minimum to get Perez home from first and with the 8 and 9 hitters coming to the plate, so the out-for-run trade was a good one.

Comments

Brian Rose
10 months, 3 weeks ago

hey first one here :) only 9 PM where i live. love Billy’s comment on hitting. knew there was something they were missing with RISP good to hear. Big test will come against the White Sox.
Larry Tindle
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Man I miss being able to watch a game, either in person or on TV. Just isn’t the same anymore listening on radio. You miss way to much.

Good article Lee.
Terry Payne
10 months, 3 weeks ago

I used to bash Betancourt until I learned recently that several of his relatives had died trying to emigrate from his country.

From here on in, I rag nobody.
Bob Forer
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Spahn and Sain and pray for rain ……

Chen and Luke and pray for a fluke.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Brian: Billy’s comments about hitting with runners in scoring position is another reminder—this is a young team.

The game at the major league level is a big step up from the minors and these guys are finding out what is and isn’t possible. The base running seems to have improved and now maybe the same will happen with the hitting.

Young teams need patient fans.

Larry: Good to have you back in the comments section. We’re very lucky in the press box: we watch it live and then can see the replays—but I still miss stuff.

Terry: One of the things I hope this column does is make these guys a little more real to people. They sometime get treated like cardboard cutouts or just a collection of numbers.

People can and do say some pretty awful things about them (of course, people also some prettty nice things about them), but to me they’re just people.

Extraordinarily talented people put in extraordinary situations, but they become a little more real when you meet their wives and see them with their kids.

And I appreciate “Bang the Drum Slowly” reference.
John Wilson
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Watching the Royals’ pitching the last two days was such a joy after the debacle of the Cardinals series at the K. 3 quality starts from Hoch. We can only hope he has found his groove. And Chen - that dude continues to impress me.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Forgot to put this in my notes: I saw Everett Teaford last night and wished him luck today. I had to do it last night because it’s a baseball tradition that you don’t speak to the starting pitcher before a game.

Teaford said he didn’t care if I talked to him today and didn’t think me asking a question this morning would prevent him from throwing strikes during the game.

Then he said he wanted me to talk to him this morning so he could blame me if things went bad.

I ain’t falling for it.
Bob Forer
10 months, 3 weeks ago

The last two games demonstrate how dominant this team can play. The hitting talent is there, although the execution as a team this year is lacking.

The pitching is in the pipe. If the young arms in the minors prove their mettle, and if Paulino, Duffy and Soria bounce back from their Tommy John’s, this team will be at the top of the baseball heap for the next few years.

This year, the team could win the division or finish 15 games out. They are too fickle to predict. But they sure are entertaining.
Brian Grant
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Easy there Bob…this is still a team with no center fielder, second baseman, and not a single starting pitcher. Lately when we win games, it’s almost always because the other team has played poorly. When St. Louis came into town and played 3 solid games, we didn’t stand a chance. The unfortunate reality of this team is that OUR best against most other teams best, is woefully inadequate.

I’m very impressed that this team has somehow managed to stay between .500 and 10 games under without a single legitimate starting pitcher, with the possible exception of Chen.

This team is years from actual contention, pending a starting rotation.
Jeff Frost
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Let’s bring out the brooms! Only 4 behind in the loss column! Go Royals!
Greg Tatro
10 months, 3 weeks ago

“Once the hitters realize that any time a man is in scoring position with one out, it’s the pitcher who is in trouble, not the hitter.”

Really…I thought that was common sense. Then again the lack of patience the Royals hitters had it wouldn’t surprise me that they press and get all out of whack just because somebody is on second or third.
Eric Miller
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Brian, You are right. Let’s all take the last two wins for what they are: pitiful losses in disguise. Wins against a terrible team playing terribly. Exactly how, when STL came to town, we played our best and got beat, right? You really think that the SP showed its best in those games?

Yours is exactly the sort of ridiculous pessimism masquerading as realism that is so boring and contrite.

And besides, Bry, Bob accounted for their problems when he said they could be 15 games out in the end. But still you feel it necessary to post that he’s getting ahead of himself. The Royals are so inept and terrible that Bob’s optimism needs to be quieted down and reigned in.

Idiocy.
Lee Summit
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Post 3 from the top. ‘From here on in I rag nobody’ Thats from one of my favorite books/movie “Bang the Drum Slowly” Dig the reference.
Bob Forer
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Thanks for covering my back Brian. Like you, I tend to be optimistic, although as a 40 year fan its become a little guarded. Despite what the naysayers believe, I think this team is on the verge of busting out BIG time.
Bob Forer
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Whoops, my thanks was directed towards Eric and not Brian. But I do appreciate your taking the time to comment, Brian, even though I can’t say I agree with your perspective.
Jim Edgington
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Bob

Been reading you since you started. I love your posts for your stated reason of writing them. You explain the why, from a players point of view.

I am a professional statistician. I am NOT a SABER guy. I do read Royals Review / Royals Authority / Rany and have eaten my share of pop tarts.

But I can tell you what those guts consistany miss.

CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION.

Everybody know OPS is highly correlated. But the question is what causes OPS. Is it distracting a pitcher with a base runner ? Having protection behind a hitter? Or adjusting your batting glove exactly 43 times between every pitch. No one knows. Or at least no one who knows is talking about it.

Here is the next big mistake people make. The inability to find statistical evidence does not mean its not there. No one has ever shown protection works. No one has ever shown a speedy base runner affects a pitcher. But players will tell you it’s true. Who do you believe … The numbers that are telling you, you don’t have evidence or the people who are the best at baseball.

Mr. Grant the Royals are about 4 players from contending for a playoff spot for the next 5 years. A #1 and #2 starter a 2nd baseman and a CF.

They think Cain can be major league average at Center. That leaves 3 spots. Very different than when they were only 7 everyday players away and needed 4 starters. And a bull pen, and their bench was bad.

Finding pitching is the hardest thing to do. But it’s all the have to do right now.

I have real hope not just fan hope for the first time since I was in college.

And yes statistically speaking that makes me old.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

I wrote up a big post on contention, then read the rest of the posts. Good job, guys.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim E.: I assume your comment is directed toward me, if so thanks. It’s interesting to hear your point of view, especially considering your back ground.

As always, I think statistics add valuable information, but aren’t the only measuring stick worth using.

Your points about correlation vs. causation and the lack of evidence meaning we may just be lousy at measuring something, are worth remembering.

Thanks for commenting,

Lee Judge
Jim Edgington
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, yes it was directed at you.

Good - Me - Numbers. Names / words not so much.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Well, Jim, you’re one up on me: I’m bad at numbers and names.
Bob Forer
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim, appreciate the kind words.

Even though I took Stats 101 in college, I am far from a Statistician, and can neither add to nor detract from anything you say.

For what its worth, I think pure SABER folks sometimes fail to understand the black letter law you cited—Correlation Does Not Equal Causation.

As a lay person, the best way I can explain it to other lay persons is from a recent personal experience of mine. My blood pressure was running a little high and I suggested to my doctor that I might need medication to control it. He response was perhaps, but first he wanted me to record some readings over the course of a few weeks to ensure meds were indicated. When I asked him why he explained it this way:

People who take blood pressure medicine have a shorter life span than those who do not take medication. He further explained that research cannot determine whether the medication itself shortens lifespan, or whether people who are prescribed the medication tend to have underlying health issues which detract from life expectancy. In other words, there is a correlation between taking bp medication and a shortened life, but no proof of causation between the two.

My doctor used those stats as a tool in caring for my health, but it was merely a tool.

Baseball stats should be similarly applied.
Lee Judge
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Bob: What if the team you watch causes the high blood pressure?

BTW: If you haven’t heard, they kept Pena over Quintero as the backup catcher. They control Pena, Quintero is going to be a free agent.

They also brought up Jason Bourgeois. Sounds like he’ll be used in a platoon with Dyson.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

I had read that the Royals would be facing quite a few lefties the next week and Bourgeois does have good splits with them. I think it’s probably a short-term move, filling days on the calendar until Lorenzo Cain is rehabbed, so wouldn’t read a lot into it.

Glad they kept Brayan Pena. Nothing against Humberto Quintero, he did a good job in a difficult situation and I expect he’ll stay employed, but Pena looks to be a special sort of teammate and a more than adequate back-up as well as a switch-hitter, so he is the one I would keep. Best of luck to Q and thanks.

BTW, Manny Pina has started rehab in Surprise, last I heard, though he may have moved up a level since then. Cain is still at Springdale, looks like they’re taking him slow, maybe aiming for just after the ASB. Haven’t heard anything on Getz.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Since there is a lot of looking to the future for fans, this is a nice piece from a very good young writer on JaKKKe Odorizzi and factors in promoting him:

http://pinetarpress.com/royals-jake-odorizzi-ready/#comment-29075

Paul York on the same site also did a very “clean” journo write-up of last night’s game, refreshing in a time of advocacy journalism. Pine Tar Press also offers coverage of the previous day’s minor-league action so it’s possible to follow Wil Myers, Odorizzi, and the progress of our rehabbers.
Bob Forer
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, I don’t have any proof that the Royals do or do not cause my bp to go up, but there sure are a lot of statistics to back up your supposition.

Interesting news on the catching decision. One had to go, and they each had their individual strengths and weaknesses. I see it as six on one hand and half a dozen on the other as far as playing ability, so I guess contract issues made it a no brainer.

Jim, i have no problem with Pena. I like his team attitude and enthusiasm. The only real down side I see is his tendency to instinctively go into “protect mode” in anticipation of a home plate collision. Last night he was so focused on protecting the ball that he didn’t realize he had plenty of time to sidestep a collision and make the tag. A little more field sense would have prevented the error, and the run (and would also avoided the collision as well. Remember Ray Fosse and Pete Rose in the All Star Game?)
Darral VanGoethem
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim,

Great piece by the PineTar press. Thanks for sharing. The reasons they pointed out are exactly why I haven’t been on here saying he was ready. I don’t think Duffy was ready either. I believe that all of the factors that they list in that article about why Odorizzi is not ready go back to a simple thing, Pitching mentality. He is pitching to try and strike every batter out. Pitchers today seem afraid to pitch to contact and let the law of averages and perfect pitch placement dictate their success. You definitely want a guy capable of striking out batters, at least one an inning actually, but they need to learn to PITCH and not rely so much on their “stuff” but more on refining their control.
Larry Tindle
10 months, 3 weeks ago

The intentional walk. Last night they walked Moose to get to Billy. Sets up the righty righty and possible double play. Had that move worked for Tampa. Maddon would have looked like a genius. That was a statistical good move but didn’t work. Can you imagine the yelling if Yost did that.
Curtis Ruder
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Putting an extra baserunner on so that you can face the other team’s best hitter? I would call that many things, but “statistical good move” is not one of them.

I can very well imagine the yelling if Yost had done something so short-sighted; I would have been doing a lot of it.

The statistics, by and large, despise the intentional walk. That does not mean it is never a good play, but if there is any doubt in your mind whether it is a good play, then the stats will say it isn’t.
Thayne Griffin
10 months, 3 weeks ago

This was YEARS ago, but I remember somebody intentionally walking Bonds with the bases loaded bottom 9, 2 outs, up 2 runs. Next hitter was an out.

The only time I typically prefer an intentional walk is runner on 3rd with one out, regardless of the hitter.
Ed Johnson
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Darral,

To your point: When David Cone was with the Mets he was a strikeout machine and obviously had success. After he won the ‘94 Cy Young he attributed it to learning to pitch to contact and not trying to strike everyone out. The key is having hitter swinging at the “pitcher’s” pitch and not getting behind in the count.
Curtis Ruder
10 months, 3 weeks ago

The Bonds story is true enough, and it was the long-time Royal Brent Mayne who followed Bonds to the plate and made the fateful out, at least in my memory.

I hate the intentional walk, and I would like to see the rule changed so that on any four pitch walk, the batter was awarded two bases. (Hat tip: Posnanski) We go to the game to see the best hitters hit. It is not sporting to duck a guy.

Anyway, an incredible rebound from the Cards sweep to even out the homestand. I was ticked at Yost for not bringing in Mijares to face Matsui, but it worked, and it had to be deflating for the Rays not to get Zobrist in with the go-ahead run in the eighth. And even more deflating when Billy put them away in the bottom half.

Good times.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

“Remember Ray Fosse and Pete Rose in the All Star Game?)”

Or Matt Treanor last year. Of course, infielders without a runner in sight have been known to juggle a transfer, it does happen.

“the stats will say it isn’t.”

The stats say that sending a batter to the plate at all isn’t a good move, as it fails more often than it succeeds.

Thanks, Darral. PTP has some good young writers and Clint and Greg are good at finding information, Clint having a press pass and season tickets at Omaha. Give me the news and I’ll generate my own opinions.
Brendan Woodbury
10 months, 3 weeks ago

The nihilistic attitude toward what we can learn from data is amazing coming from a statistician.

Proving causation under formal logic is almost impossible. Philosopher David Hume argued it was beyond our ability to understand. But in the real world, we accept lots of cause-and-effect relationships. We accept that exploding firecrackers cause loud noises, that drugs cause blood pressure to decrease, that the moon causes the ocean tides to shift.

And the anti-stat crowd accepts lots of cause-and-effect relationships: that good guys in the locker room make a team better; that not getting pinch hit for makes a young hitter better; that the adversity of a 12-game losing streak makes a team tougher. In fact, it often seems that many people become less willing to accept causation if there’s a statistically proven correlation (a required element of cause and effect) than if it’s just the received wisdom around the ballpark.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

“I hate the intentional walk, and I would like to see the rule changed so that on any four pitch walk, the batter was awarded two bases. (Hat tip: Posnanski)”

A large number of walks are intentional, they just involve four sliders low and away rather than four pitch-outs up and away. Pitchers work around hitters all the time, it just may not show up in the box score.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

“it’s just the received wisdom around the ballpark.”

Based on well over a century of experience, not all of which can yet be quantified. Look at wOBA, it wasn’t outlined until 30 or 40 years after the major leagues started. Stats tend to lag the curve and most recent ones are just finer slicings of previously existent data. You have OBP now, baseball has always been aware of guys who walk or speed guys who force errors.

Sometime in the future, with enough high speed cameras and big enough computers with subtle enough software, numbers may be able to “see” stuff that the experienced pick up by eye nearly instantaneously now.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Saw that Lorenzo Cain has been brought up to Omaha. Leg must be holding up.
Jim Fetterolf
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Attribution, mlb.com
Gaines Arnold
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Just started reading this site again after a significant lay off. Brendan thanks for being the voice of reason here.