Games: Tampa Bay Rays, June 25: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Tampa Bay Rays

Jun25

A dominant performance

Nine innings, 113 pitches, eight strikeouts, one walk and no runs. Luke Hochevar threw a complete game and set up the Royals bullpen for the rest of the series. He concentrated on his “core” pitches — fastball, curveball and change-up — which gave him the separation in speed the Royals have been looking for, but pulled out his secondary pitches — cutter, sinker, slider — when he needed them.

In short, Luke Hochevar looked like a No. 1 starter. This doesn’t necessarily mean he’s fixed — it’s not the first good stretch of pitching we’ve seen from Luke, but it does mean there’s reason to hope he can become the dominant pitcher the Royals have been waiting for.

So if you’re one of those people who said Hochevar should be cut or that he was worthless or he wasn’t a major league pitcher — and all those things have been said on this website — don’t feel bad, the future is hard to predict.

Just try to keep that in mind the next time you’re ready to complain about a Dayton Moore trade that doesn’t work out.

Game notes

First inning: Alex Gordon hits what at first appears to be a single, takes a wide turn at first base and heads for second. The Rays centerfielder, B.J. Upton appears far too close to the infield for extra bases, but not only does Gordon make it—he makes it easily.

Once again, the reason is lateral movement. Upton was moving away from second base and had nothing behind the throw. This is not an accident—the Royals cue on lateral movement in order to take extra bases. Pitchers are speeding up delivery times to stop the stolen base and, in response, the Royals are looking for ways to take the extra base.

Yuniesky Betancourt does his job by hitting the ball to the right side and Gordon moves to third. Ben Zobrist does not handle a Mike Moustakas drive to right field, but if Zobrist had made the catch, Gordon’s base running and Betancourt’s situational hitting would have still resulted in a run. Royals 1-Rays 0.

Second inning: Luke Hochevar demonstrates the “separation” in speed that Dave Eiland and Ned Yost are looking for. Hochevar’s fastball is 94 MPH, his change-up is 87 MPH and his curve is 80 MPH. Yost says the slow curve makes Luke’s fastball look 98. As Bruce Chen shows, it’s not velocity, it’s changes in velocity that gets hitters out.

In the bottom of the inning Jarrod Dyson comes to the plate with two outs. The Rays third baseman, Brooks Conrad, is on the grass in case Dyson bunts. Once Dyson has a strike, Conrad moves back to the cut of the grass because the bunt is less likely. Once Dyson has two strikes, Brooks is behind the bag.

Third inning: Before the game Ned Yost talks about defensive shifts and how better information has made them possible. Teams now know where every ball in play was hit and can align the defense accordingly. It’s still an educated guess and pitchers have to demonstrate enough control to pitch to the shift being used.

Hochevar demonstrates that control against left-handed Carlos Pena. The Royals are playing him to pull and Hochevar is pitching him inside to force the ball toward the defense. Hochevar finally gets him on a pitch out over the plate, but it’s a slider. Being a slightly slower pitch, Pena still pulls the slider and hits it to Jarrod Dyson, shifted over toward right.

In the bottom of the inning, leadoff hitter, Alcides Escobar, spots the third baseman playing back and bunts down the left field line for a single. This sets off a five-run inning and is probably responsible for Luke Hochevar’s complete game (more on that later). Gordon follows with a single, a wild pitch moves both runners up, Yuniesky Betancourt singles and drives in two, Mike Moustakas pops out, Billy Butler singles, then Jeff Francoeur singles and drives in Betancourt.

Meanwhile, Billy is thrown out going first to third on Francoeur’s hit. This is later called a “gaffe” by some members of the media, but if you’re going to try to make third base, you do it with one out. It’s generally considered worth the risk because the runner can then score without benefit of a hit.

Billy’s out, but Jeff Francoeur moves up to second on the throw to third and that turns into a run when Eric Hosmer hits a single. Hosmer then steals second and is driven in by Salvador Perez. Sal is then caught rounding first too big. Once again this is termed a mistake, but if Perez did it to ensure the ball got cut off and Hosmer scored, it might’ve been a smart play. (Don’t know for sure, never saw Sal after the game.)

Fourth inning: Two outs, runners at first and second for the Rays. Sean Rodriguez hits a ball to deep centerfield. The only problem for the Royals is this: Jarrod Dyson is in shallow centerfield. Dyson runs forever and catches the ball, probably saving two runs.

In the bottom of the inning, Yuniesky Betancourt has his third productive at-bat of the night, driving in Alcides Escobar with a sacrifice fly.

Fifth inning: Luke Hochevar is in a bit of a jam, he’s got two runners on, no outs and the top of the order coming to the plate. Luke has said he won’t completely abandon his secondary pitches and will use them when he needs to. He needs to—and strikes out the side.

Eighth inning: With the score 7-0, Eric Hosmer hits a changeup the other way for a home run. This is part of what makes Hosmer special. Change-ups are designed to get hitters out in front—Hosmer waited. Pitching outside is designed to take away a hitter’s power—Hosmer can hit home runs to left field. When he’s right, Hosmer’s a handful.

Ninth inning: Hochevar comes out to finish what he started. The offense has made this possible. In a close game, Yost would go to the pen. With a cushion, he can give Hochevar a chance to do something special…and he does. Royals win, 8-0.

Two more reasons Sal Perez is good

He’s wide. This means more balls look like strikes because they’re within the frame of his body. Last season, Matt Treanor told me umpires will tend to call a pitch a strike if it’s between the catcher’s knees.

Reason number two: Sal can “stick it.” That means he has the arm strength to hold a 98-MPH fastball in place. If you’re not strong, a pitch that hard will move the mitt and that might not look like a strike. Catching the ball and holding it in place makes a pitch look better.

(You learn something new every day if you ask the right questions.)

*Could you do that on the dirt?

Head groundskeeper Trevor Vance is worried about the infield grass. We’re in a heat wave, which is tough on turf, but if the Royals can get through the Rays series without a bench-clearing brawl, Trevor will be a happy man.

Until Trevor said something, I’d never thought about what baseball brawls do to the grass underfoot. The Royals groundskeeper wants the playing surface to be perfect for the All-Star game and dozens of people, wearing spikes, pushing and shoving in a wild melee isn’t exactly great for grass.

So for every baseball fight there’s a groundskeeper somewhere nearby, having a nervous breakdown. (Isn’t it amazing how many things you don’t think of until someone points them out?)

Corrections

When games are over, the press heads downstairs for Ned Yost’s post-game press conference. After that, we head for the clubhouse to talk to the players. If a player had a major role in a game, he’s expected to meet with the media. In my case, I often want to talk about something obscure, so the player I need to talk to may not wait around. As a result, my questions often have to wait until the next day and quite often the first person I see on the field is Doug Sisson. So here are a couple of semi-corrections from Sunday’s game:

Jarrod Dyson sprinted in on a sinking line drive and let it get by him for a double. Doug thought it probably should have been scored an error, but understood how it happened. Sinking line drives have topspin, so an outfielder can get burned when he charges in with the catch lined up and the ball continues to sink. Doug didn’t think it was a mental mistake, but more a misjudgment of the ball’s flight.

Sisson also told me that if an outfielder one hops his throw, it’s low enough to be cut off. So Jeff Francoeur’s two throws yesterday were not mistakes. I asked if any time the trail runner advanced did that necessarily mean something had gone wrong and Doug said no, sometimes you should go for the lead runner. And major league base runners are pretty good about advancing on throws.

The rules

There are a lot of unwritten rules in baseball, here’s one of them that pertains to batting practice: if you hit, you pick up baseballs. Friday, the celebrities hit and then walked away, leaving Steve Foster, the bullpen coach to pick up all the balls by himself. First, Steve walked the outfield and threw all the balls to the infield. Then Steve threw all the balls on the infield to the mound. Then he put all the balls in a bag.

Steve, if it happens again next year, come find me—I’ll help you pick up baseballs. Or…I’ll be happy to tell the celebrities to get their butts out there and pick up the baseballs they hit.

P.S. As I pointed out to Steve, it could’ve been worse—the celebrities didn’t hit too many balls out of the infield.

Comments

Jay Hall
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Hochevar was fabulous last night. He attacked the strike zone early and often, his fastball was really working with great movement, and he also had a good feel for the curve, throwing it for strikes.

My fear for Hoch is that he will abandon this gameplan and go back to trying to use six pitches. Hochevar seems to be at his best when he is using his fastball (4-seam), change and curve, with an occasional slider. Anything more than that and he can’t seem to get a feel for any one pitch and ends up throwing a bunch of okay 2 seamers, 4 seamers, change-ups, cutters, curves and sliders rather than just pounding away with a great 4 seamer and a strong curve.

Hopefully Luke saw that less is more last night and keeps that gameplan. I’ll admit I don’t have a lot of faith because he seems to be a guy that likes to tinker and use all his pitches, which has led to his inconsistency throughout his career.

On another note, I think a young team like the Royals has to be careful about continuing to send unproductive veterans out to play. For instance, we have had several young pitchers come up and start this year, then be sent down to AAA after poor or shaky starts. I have no problem with that. However, after seeing Jonathan Sanchez continue to struggle with the strike zone on Sunday, it sends a mixed message if the Royals keep sending him to the rubber. It’s almost a double standard if they don’t hold him accountable for pitching poorly like they have held Teaford, Smith, Adcock and others accountable for their poor performances.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Jay: I get what you’re saying on both counts. Hochevar needs to show some long-term consistency, but last night was another step toward that.

As for Sanchez: first-round picks and guys who make a lot of money get more chances than organizational guys. It may not be fair, but if teams have invested a lot in a player, they want to give that player every chance to succeed.

Gordon—and maybe Hochevar—are examples of that patience paying off. There are also examples plenty of patience not working out.

As I pointed out at the beginning of this piece, educated guesses are about the best teams can do.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“Teaford, Smith, Adcock”

With Teaford and Adcock, before Teaford was hurt, it wasn’t punishment, it was reloading the arms. The I-29 shuttle is part of the reason the team has been able to abuse the bullpen with so many innings, overwork a kid for a game or a week, then send him down and replace.

In Smith’s case he did pitch himself down but showed enough that he’s still in the mix.

In Sanchez’ case, he doesn’t have options and players understand that. They also understand that players get on rough streaks. You think Hochevar and Hosmer are demanding that Jon Sanchez be held accountable:)? And they, like me, might be scratching their heads about Adcock and Teaford “pitching poorly”. Both have done their jobs and Teaford got hurt.
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Now, that was fun!

What a good night for the Royals and a bad one for the Rays…and the Hoch haters and stats guys who all have to be saying to themselves, “But, he was pitching bad at the start of the season again and I declared him a bust.” or “But the stats said he shouldn’t be able to do that!”

Great job Hoch! Keep sawing wood and keep getting better.

(Please keep in mind, all of this is said with friendly humor and is not meant to be a firestarter.)
Derek Taylor
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Random Thought For The Day (Take 2, since I didn’t get any responses yesterday): I seem to remember a story a while back in which Dyson said he might try to surprise the defense by bunting for a base hit in a two strike count… I wonder when (if ever) he’s going to try it?

Like Lee said, the third baseman moved behind the bag after Jarrod got two strikes.
Curtis Ruder
11 months, 3 weeks ago

I am relatively agnostic on Hochevar and have been for quite a while. I don’t think he is worthless, and the main reason I have never called for his demotion or whatever is that Steve Busby is not walking through that door.

But at the same time, one dominant start is just that, one dominant start. It is important to remember that this was against a team who had a day night double-header the day before and is missing their best hitter. So if there were a team ripe for being dominated, Tampa was it last night.

I happened to be sitting in the third base box seats of Comiskey during opening week of 2009 when I recall Kyle Davies going out and totally destroying the White Sox. Davies was by some measures one of the worst starters in baseball history, but he got well over 100 starts because he could be brilliant.

Hochevar isn’t Davies; dominant Luke is way better than dominant Kyle. But the point is that even bad starting pitchers can have days where they are unhittable. And one dominant start does not invalidate all the criticisms that have been hurled Luke’s way. Even after his start last night, he has an ERA+ of 80 for the season, meaning he has been 20% worse than an average major league pitcher this season. His career ERA+ is 81.

I don’t think he is worthless, and I don’t think he should be demoted. But I also don’t think those criticisms have much less merit today than they did yesterday.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

It was a pleasant surprise to come home at 9pm from taking the family to see the new Disney movie “Brave” and see Hoch pitch such a dominating game. I tend to like month to month trends as a truer evaluator of a players current slide, up or down, rather than a game to game reaction. With that thought in mind for June he has the following numbers: 3.38 ERA, 34.2 IP, 32 hits, 10 BB, 25 ks, .258 avg against. That is a great trend to see. Actually if you take out his TERRIBLE May, April wasn’t so bad either. See his April #s: 4.98 ERA, 21.2 IP, 20 hits, 8 BB, 16 ks, .250 avg against.

Since I said I tend to look at performances on a month to month basis with pitching and not the game to game results, I feel like I need to mention the following to temper the pro-Hoch group. As I stated after he faced the Astros he was facing a very bad offensive team. Same thing here. In fact, overall, The Rays are actually a worse offensive team then even the Astros. Look at their #s: 28th in Hits, 15th in Runs scored, 27th in avg, 17th in obp, 25th in slg, 23rd in ops. However, they are 1st in drawing walks so the fact that Hoch only walked 1 last night is a great subtle stat considering that is how the Rays basically get on base and score runs, with walks. In the two innings I saw him work, the 8th and the 9th, he didn’t toy with them or try and be cute with his off-speed stuff on the corners. He attacked the zone and moved quickly. Way to go Eiland for getting the message across. Again. FINALLY!! Now I want to see him do it against a better offensive team. Looks like he will face an improving offense in Minnesota over the weekend, as they are in the Top half of the Majors in all major offensive stats except for runs scored.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Curtis: I largely agree with you—people shouldn’t rush to judgments, good or bad. Which was pretty much the point I was trying to make.

Although, if I recall correctly, Luke has had four pretty good starts in a row now, but we’ve seen this before.

Even good pitchers have bad days—and vice versa—but you’re looking for a guy to throw well consistently. Robert Ford of 610 Radio says 7 out of 10 times. We’re not there yet with Luke.

But when he’s good, he’s very good. That’s why he keeps getting chances. Let’s hope he can be more consistent over the rest of the season.
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Few baserunning thoughts:

Looked like Billy had a great jump and when he went for 3rd, I didn’t think they could get him, but then I remembered he was Billy and isn’t exactly light of foot.

In Perez’s case, it looked like to me he didn’t think the throw was getting cut off and was going to advance.

Moose stole 3rd?! I wouldn’t think he has a green light, so Doug or Eddie must have seen that Cobb wasn’t watching runneRs or something - on Hos’ SB, I think he just has deceptive speed.

Great outing by Hoch - in the 5th I thought he was going to lose it, but pitched to those 3 batters better than he did anyone last night. I was glad Ned let him finish the game, I’m sure it gave him some confidence.

And Yuni made a pkay going back AND left? Stars had aligned last night for this team.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

On a completely side note why is Youkilis’ trade and the send off he got in Boston such a big sports news story?? Looking over his stats and they are nothing special. Sure, he is a decent enough hitter with a great eye but he has never led the league in any offensive category. For his career he is hitting .287, doesn’t have a ton of homers despite playing in a hitters park and playing a typical power hitters position. His baseball reference comparibles are Trot Nixon and Marty Cordova. I just don’t get the hype. Sorry for the rant.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“But I also don’t think those criticisms have much less merit today than they did yesterday.”

That is the curse of average and aggregate stats. For pitchers I prefer something like Game Score that can be charted. Then we can see that Hoch not only has the worst Royals’ start this year and three of the worst on the staff, but has the two best and two of the best six in his last three starts. I think his trends have more predictive value. There is a reason the stock markets use charts.

Just as an odd icing on the cake, Yuni had three RBIs:)
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Darral-

Your question about Youk is exactly why those of us who don’t focus on the stats as EVERYTHING criticize stats only guys.

There is more to baseball than stats. There is a human element. Things like fun, heart, and even the love for a player.

The Boston fans LOVE that guy, which is kind of a glitch in the mind of numbers guys who ask, “Why?” But, that’s the part of the game we love.

Now, the fact that the national media is making such a big deal of it is sad simply because it shows how they over-promote Boston and the Yankees…this should be a local story only, but ESPN has to get their programming of Boston/NYY in somehow.

The point I’m trying to make is that stats are not everything in baseball. A player can be liked (and good for a team) even though he has bad stats. A player can be hated (and bad for a team) even though he has Hall of Fame stats.

One side example from a different sport. The stats say the Chiefs should think about picking up Terrell Owens. But, what the stats don’t show is that he actually makes any team he’s on worse.

Again, I believe stats are important. All I’m trying to say is that they are not everything and that’s why Youk is getting such a big sendoff in Boston. He has something that doesn’t show up on any advanced metric (or whatever they’re called). And, that stuff is important too.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Tom: What you’re talking about is one of the reasons this site exists. There are some players who bring more to the table than pure numbers indicate and some who bring less.

As one player said to me, “Why does everyone want to play with Jeter and nobody wants to play with A-Rod?”

I think that’s where we often have a disconnect between fans who relate to the game though numbers and fans who relate to the game in other ways.

I also think that’s why some people get upset with this site and the Polk system I’ve used: it tells them that players they don’t find especially impressive are better than they think or players they really like have flaws in their game.

That doesn’t make me, the site or the Polk system correct, it’s just another point of view, but it should help fans understand why certain players are held in high regard by their teammates and management.
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Hey Lee-

I totally agree and that’s my main point. The stats/systems and the human element can (and should) work in harmony.

But, surely you can see why it is not only frustrating, but actually wrong, when someone says that Escobar & Hos aren’t that good of defensive players because a “pie slice” chart says so. That’s crazy talk and drives fans like me crazy.

If stats are used to supplement the game, I’m all for it. But, if they’re used to dictate the game, then something’s wrong.

A team that only uses the “eye ball test” will fail. A team that uses only “stats” will fail. Surely there is a way to use both common sense and stats.

It would just be nice to hear a stats guy say, “The pie slice says Escobar is not a top teir fielder, but we know that’s wrong so I’m gonna ignore that stat for a while until it corrects itself.” :)
Darral VanGoethem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

So are you critizising me for asking the question?? I wouldn’t consider myself a “stats guy” 100%. I use a lot of eye tests to make my determination of a player. Often there are players with good stats that I am not a fan of. Up until this year I wasn’t much of a Billy Butler fan for example.

Either way I definitely didn’t need an example for me to “understand” what you are talking about. I LOVED Joe Randa, but his stats weren’t that great. Just loved the way he played the game. I understand the love the Boston fans have for Youk, I just don’t understand the media hype around it. I am well aware of ESPNs east coast/Yankees/Red Sox bias too. Just think that Youk has been given TOO much respect for being a player that when his career is over won’t be viewed as even much of an All-Star. Sure, he had a couple of All-Star season but overall, not an All-Star player. You don’t need just the stats to see that. You can watch him play to see that.
Chuck Smith
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Well, I hated coming to this column today. I knew I’d be on the mat for being a Nuke basher. But like i said before, the Nuke monkier can work both ways. Luke proved that by blowing up the Rays last night. Great job, I’m looking forward to see if this continues (which is better than dreading the next start).

Very interesting on the catchers body size impacting the strike zone. If that’s fairly proven then I’d want Sal catching all of Nuke’s games. It seems when the ump is squeezing the strike zone that Hoch has some of his worst nights. My biggest complaint is how Luke responds under duress. It appears he did well the couple of times TB mounted a threat.

Betancourt has done well at the plate lately, still hope Getz is back right after the All Star break.

Great information as always Lee. Thanks.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“You don’t need just the stats to see that. You can watch him play to see that.”

That’s the middle-ground that is kind of the hallmark of this community. Good post, Darral. Stas are good for taking the emotion out of judgement but are too often too individually oriented to catch a player’s team value in a very contextual game.
Ben Weddle
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee Great column. One of your best in regards to breaking down the game and applying the players reasoning for their actions and the coaching staff’s assessment of such.

Given the chance, I’d love to hear about any special team chemistry you’re witnessing. I felt as though Moose and Hosmer’s unique post game celebration was significant in that, Moose was happy for Hosmer’s performance, and Hosmer was happy to contribute.

We forget these are young men under incredible pressure. When things go well or not, you seek someone who understands and empathizes. They find that in their team mates. Look at the genuine smile Sal had when he grabbed Hoch in that bear hug. That was as much him being happy for his friend, as it was about a team win.

One way to build momentum is to humanize this team. Instead of viewing them as a GM must, as interchangeable parts, tell us anecdotal tales of how their adjusting to performing in front of thousands of people. What’s the preferred post game hangout, etc.

The wins and losses will take care of themselves. Many will offer up statistical evidence, that they never played the game, in their quest to out think millions of dollars the Royals spend, to put the best players on the field.

Keep us on track regarding the human element and throw us a bone every now and then with some personal insight into a player’s psyche.
Terry Payne
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Anyone beside me sick of Redsox nation?
Jay Hall
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim,

Hosmer has been held accountable. He has been out of the lineup quite a few times this year. He hasn’t been run out there every single day. When he was really struggling, he was taken out of the lineup a few times.

Hochevar missed starts due to injury. He hasn’t been held accountable as much as I’d like, but his performance is turning.

The Royals seem to have a habit of fixing what isn’t broken and breaking what’s working while ignoring the real issues.

For example, Alex Gordon had a near league MVP level season last year as the leadoff hitter. Yet for some reason, they took him out of the leadoff spot and moved him all around the first six spots. Now he’s back in the leadoff spot and he’s raking. Why even mess with that?

Hochevar had a great second half last year, in part because he ditched some of his pitches. He shows up this year trying to throw the cutter again, and playing around with a couple different fastballs. Didn’t it show that last year as a primarily three pitch pitcher he could be an above average starter? Why change that?

Hosmer started this season with a huge leg kick before his swing. That wasn’t there last year. Now he’s back to a toe tap and he’s starting to really get going. Why mess with the kid’s swing?

In the case of Gordon and Hosmer there was no need to make changes to what they were doing and yet changes were made. I don’t know if the Hosmer changes were things that the Royals did, or he did them on his own, but the thing is, the Royals should have seen that leg kick and immediately junked it when they saw it.

We can’t outspend teams, so we have to outsmart and outdevelop them. Making unnecessary or counterproductive changes doesn’t do that.
Bob Post
11 months, 3 weeks ago

So Darral, it doesn’t seem to me that anyone’s criticizing you at all. In fact, it seems to me that you asked a question that you already had your own answer to, just to stir something up. You asked. They answered. That’s all.
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Hey Darral-

I certainly wasn’t criticizing you for asking. I was simply trying to answer your question about why there was such a big send off in Boston. I think your Joe Randa analogy fits well.

Now, if the national media would just give the rest of us a break and stop flooding our TVs with Boston/NYY love, it would be much more enjoyable for the rest of the country.

Let’s get another win tonight!
Chris Campbell
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Don’t forget one of the biggest flaws with stats: A hit with no one on, 1 out in the top of the second inning of a tie game has just as much as value as a hit in the bottom of the ninth with runners on 2nd and 3rd, trailing by one run, with two outs. Common sense tells you that the latter is a FAR more critical at bat, and as a result there is MUCH More pressure. Stats can’t and don’t measure that.

Don’t get me wrong, stats are a VERY useful tool, they just don’t tell you the complete story. Unfortunately there are too many people that think stats DO tell you the entire story. Not just in baseball, but in Corporate America.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“Hosmer has been held accountable. He has been out of the lineup quite a few times this year.”

Had Hosmer not been the son of G*d he would have been back in Omaha a month or two back. Sitting once in awhile is not accountability for a second year player hitting .220 with a productive LH 1B/DH behind him in Omaha. This isn’t Moose with Betemit and Aviles the alternatives.

“Hochevar missed starts due to injury. He hasn’t been held accountable as much as I’d like, but his performance is turning.”

Agree, my view for quite awhile now, proclaimed while others were demanding he be DFA’ed a few short weeks back, “Kyle v2.0!”. I guess today it’s “DFA Sanchez!”

“Why even mess with that?”

Because Alex started ice cold and Dyson came up when Cain got hurt. A lead off hitter batting .210 and striking out 30% doesn’t work. You have to hide him until he quits trying to pull outside pitches and quits trying to outsmart the umpires. Alex made the adjustment and will be great the rest of the year.

“Didn’t it show that last year as a primarily three pitch pitcher he could be an above average starter? Why change that?”

I would remind that the second half of last year Luke unleashed a previously unused slider that ranked second in MLB to Cliff Lee. His velocity also went up, suggesting he was back at full strength after his late ‘10 injury. Seldom a single, simple answer.

“Why mess with the kid’s swing?”

Mechanics break down and kids don’t listen. Seitzer messed with the swings of Melky, Frenchy, and Gordon the year before with decent results, also Escobar and Moose and Big Bill. He can’t stand in the batter’s box and make Gordon and Hosmer go the opposite way, they have to buy in and create the muscle memory. Hard enough to hit a baseball without trying to run through a “to-do” list while swinging. If you’ve ever swung a driver…?

Good stuff, Jay, I appreciate your views and effort. Thanks.
William Wolfe
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Chris—hate to burst your bubble, but there is in fact a stat that differentiates between the two situations you’ve raised. It’s called Win Probability Added, and it basically measures the run expectancy of the situation a batter or pitcher comes into and then measures it afterwards and gives credit to the batter or pitcher for the change. So, a single in a tie game in the 9th is worth way more than a single in a blowout in the 9th ,as an example. Not saying stats solve everything, but objective measurement sure is helpful.
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

BTW…how about some love for Escobar’s hitting. They guy is batting .307! I’m not saying he’s going to finish there, but the guy has worked hard at the plate and it’s showing. Wow.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“It’s called Win Probability Added, and it basically measures the run expectancy of the situation a batter or pitcher comes into and then measures it afterwards and gives credit to the batter or pitcher for the change.”

That is useful, looks to count bases created or prevented within a specific situation. Do defenders get credit in that? Esky making an outstanding play and saving the tying and winning runs in the 9th should probably affect WPA.
Aaron Nossaman
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“Why mess with the kids swing”

well one thing baseball is always adjusting…I think Hos started the leg kick because this summer he had A-Rod call him up and say the batting cage at my house is yours when you want it. I bet he was thinking A-Rods famous leg kick in his swing made him a hall of fame type player why don’t I do it? well just like Getz….. his swing is ugly but it works for him and his timing, and even some line-drive force….

I think with all the young guys… I think they are pressing… they are trying to be HOF now… instead of being themselves and beating each other up after wins…. Watching from last year to this year it seems like they arent celebrating the small things like they were…

Well Lee I have been reading this since you started and always loved it… this is my first comment You do a great job!!!! I love how you get the behind the scenes info and the videos are amazing!!! Have a wonderful day at the game!!!!
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee…ditto to what Aaron said about your blog. That’s why it’s the best in baseball!
KC Guy
11 months, 3 weeks ago

So, was Hosmer’s leg kick the cause of his problems so far this season, or a reaction to something? You can only hear, “Stay inside the ball!” a couple thousand times before it renders itself useless. I wonder if he developed the bigger leg kick over the offseason to help correct something he noticed last season, but it caused more problems than it’s worth. He’s slowly coming out of it, and has obviously changed his swing over the course of the season, but his problems seem to stem mostly from recognizing change ups. He hit one out last night, but he still putting the wrong balls in play a little more often than he wants to..
Curtis Ruder
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Youkalis, for his career, has been an outstaning hitter. A phenomenal hitter. One of the best hitters in the American League year after year. He has been in decline for a couple of years, and he has always had injury issues, but when he is in the lineup, he makes fewer outs than most anyone in baseball, which is the best thing you can say about a hitter.
Luke Healy
11 months, 3 weeks ago

the game was great, good win for the royals to stop a potential losing streak.

good stuff on the catcher affecting games in ways you wouldn’t think, on bench clearing affecting the field, and on picking up balls after batting practice. that is all really interesting stuff i wouldn’t have known—thanks.
Brian Rose
11 months, 3 weeks ago

I think on Dyson bunting with 2 strikes he was bluffing a little and got called on it. might be nice to try it but if he has two stirkes more of a pitchers count so not as likely to see a fastball which is easier to bunt. Plus, he doesn’t seem to me to be a great bunter although I have a very untrained eye… I think he would be better off choking up on the bat and crowding the plate trying to slap a high chopper with 2 strikes.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Curtis- “Youkalis, for his career, has ben an outstanding hitter. A phenomenal hitter. One of the best hitters in the American League year after year.”

Curtis,

You are flat out wrong. He has a great eye and has an ability to get on base, which means that, yes, does make fewer outs on average. However, to say that he is a “phenomenal hitter. One of the best hitters in the American League year after year.” is just WRONG!! The stats tell differently. His career avg is just .287. He hit over .300 just 3 times in his now 7 full seasons. I will give you that from 2008-2010 he was one of the best. But I can’t even give him full credit for 2010 b/c he only played in 102 games. His career batting avg outside those 3 seasons is just .271.

Outside of his HRs, his career actually compares favorably to Joe Randa’s and last time I checked he was never considered one of the best hitters of his generation. Yes, his OBP of almost .400 is impressive. But, again, outside of those 3 seasons, he was league average as far as slg goes.

So, Curtis, to say that he “has been an outstanding hitter. An phenomenal hitter. One of the best hitters in the American League year after year.” is a pretty big, and incorrect, statement.
Matthew Tiemeyer
11 months, 3 weeks ago

I think the stats vs. scouts issue is well-exampled by Hosmer’s defense. It’s clear that he has tremendous skills. Agile, sure-handed, long - nothing else you could ask for in a first baseman. And the statistics last year said that he had below-average range. Same this year.

A front office should use that information somehow. Either the eyeball test is incorrect or there’s something else going on that kept him from getting to as many (or more) balls than other guys.

One documented theory went that Hosmer had been playing too close to the bag to reach as many balls in the hole as other first basemen. I think I saw it suggested that Hosmer was instructed to guard the line more and prevent more extra-base hits. If that’s true, then there should be a way to justify the move statistically - a way to show that he’s getting to a higher percentage of the balls down the line and that this is preventing runs at a greater rate than he would if he reached more balls in the hole (particularly considering that there are more balls hit to the hole than down the line).

Though I don’t know whether UZR for first basemen takes into account the greater likelihood that balls down the line will go for extra bases, Hosmer is near the bottom of the league in UZR. It seems that his obvious skills could be put to better use somehow - if not this way, then some other way.
Matthew Tiemeyer
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Darral, one thing you may not have researched is that on-base percentage correlates much (much) more highly to runs scored than does batting average. Given that someone like Joe Randa had an career “weighted runs created above average” (wRC+) of 94 (100 being average), and Youkilis has a career wRC+ of 129, the difference is profound, despite their similar batting averages. Randa was a fine player in my estimation, but Youkilis has been making runs happen at a much higher rate for a very long time.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Guys: Thank you for your kind comments. It’s really a pleasure for me to hear something new—wide catchers get calls and brawls screw up infields—and bring it back to the site for other fans to see.

I appreciate the appreciation.

I’m looking out the press box window and Chino Cadahia is pelting the catchers with balls in the dirt…time to get to work.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Matthew,

I did see that. However, I think that I could make a pretty compelling argument that his runs scored, which aren’t that impressive for someone that gets on base as much as his reputation and obp shows, are more a product of the offenses he has batted in and less about his ability to get on base. You seem to claim in your post, Matthew, that his high obp has resulted in more runs scored. But if you look at his runs scored #s you will not be that impressed. He only scored more than 90 runs in a season 3 times. Other than that he only even sniffed 80 runs scored outside of those 3 seasons once. And he hasn’t been mking runs happen at a much higher rate for a very long time. I respectfully disagree with that. He has a great 3 year stretch as I mentioned previously but outside of that he hasn’t even been an average major leaguer by my estimation.
Matthew Tiemeyer
11 months, 3 weeks ago

wRC+ isn’t a measure of his runs scored; it’s a weighted (important) measure of his runs created. That includes, for example, the instances in which he draws a walk with two outs and a runner on second, and the subsequent hitter singles him in. If he had made an out, no run scores. But he doesn’t get a run or an RBI. This is why outs are so precious.

RC, wRC, and wRC+ take that into account. They also take into account slugging percentage, which is the other major component in raw productivity. Youkilis has a 60-point advantage here as well.

You can be a pretty horrible player and score 100 runs (or drive in 100) in the right lineup. And you can be a pretty amazing player and score 50. Statistics like wRC work to even that out so there can be apples-to-apples comparison.
Matthew Tiemeyer
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Incidentally, Posnanski makes the issue clear re: Youkilis in a recent article:

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/06/youk.html
Jared Dull
11 months, 3 weeks ago

These last few starts for Hoch have looked like the guy from the second half of last year. There really must be something to this “going back to core pitches” thing.

It reminds me of Greinke’s last year here where he was trying to reinvent himself coming off a Cy Young season. It also reminds me of Soria trying to throw too many cutters last year.

Guys with that kind of talent don’t need to over-think and over-analyze. Who cares if they know what’s comin. Throw your best stuff anyway. His curve and sinker were unhittable.. Although last night, Hoch seemed to have the hitters guessing quite a bit too.

One other thing regarding that wild pitch in the third inning. Molina seemed annoyed at the home plate ump for kicking the ball accidentally allowing the runners to move up. Thing is, if the ump hadn’t stopped it with his shin guard in the first place the ball would have gone to the back stop. Molina didn’t do a very good job of blocking it, so really the kick by the ump was justified.

Baseball karma usually shows up later in games or in completely different games, like different lives. This one happened to be all on the same play. Immediate baseball karma. :)
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Tom -

No wonder you believe the stats guys are wrong about everything. Your impression of them is a caricature that bears almost no relation to the reality of the debate.

Case in point: “What a good night for the Royals and a bad one for the Rays…and the Hoch haters and stats guys who all have to be saying to themselves, “But, he was pitching bad at the start of the season again and I declared him a bust.” or “But the stats said he shouldn’t be able to do that!””

There has been nobody more favorably inclined toward Hochevar than the stats crowd. Go over to Fangraphs and see who they have as the Royals best pitcher this year. It’s Hochevar by a considerable margin.

Last year, fangraphs had Hochevar as an above-average pitcher. This year, he’s on pace to be well above average. The usual criticism of the defense-independent pitching statistics that fangraphs is basing their pitcher value on is that it gives too much credit to Hochever, not that he shouldn’t be able to do what he does.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim F -

Unless I’m missing something, Sanchez has only been optioned in 2006 and 2007 and therefore has one option year remaining. He does have enough service time to demand a release if he’s optioned, but I don’t think anyone else is going to take a flyer on him right now.
Jeff Frost
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Go Royals!! Let’s sweep those Rays!
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“Go over to Fangraphs and see who they have as the Royals best pitcher this year. It’s Hochevar by a considerable margin.”

After last night, a 0.4 fWAR effort, remarkably similar to his 39 Grit pts above. Before that he was tied with Chen, before that he trailed Chen. Last I looked, B-R had him below replacement level. And two weeks ago it was “Kyle Davies! Highest ERA ever! DFA him!” We all remember earlier comments and many have noticed that it always seems to be, “DFA somebody!” One week it’s Hoch, the next Yuni, the next Sanchez, it will probably be Getz when he gets back like it was most of last year.

“I don’t think anyone else is going to take a flyer on him right now.”

Possible. He won’t be released, he’ll be DL’ed, since his arm isn’t right. Charts tell that story much better than stats can.
William Wolfe
11 months, 3 weeks ago

What’s a chart? Doesn’t it show a stat or something that can be construed as a stat?
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim -

I noticed you’d stopped comparing Polk Points to fWAR once the sample got big enough to reveal that the systems are radically different. Good to see you returning to the comparison for a one game sample.

I’m not sure what your point was with the Chen and Hoch comparison, but advanced pitching statistics (which baseball reference doesn’t use for pitcher WAR) have been consistently high on Hochevar.

Kyle Davies is another example like Hochevar. His last defenders were the advanced stat crowd. Pretending like they were trying to run him out of town (or like they’d cite ERA if they did) is part of Tom’s caricature, not reality.

Given that our medical team doesn’t seem to be able to diagnose an injury to Sanchez, I think Sanchez would be better served by being optioned to Omaha than by being put on the DL. Otherwise, we’re basically hoping for a magic cure.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“Pretending like they were trying to run him out of town (or like they’d cite ERA if they did) is part of Tom’s caricature, not reality.”

I was posting on RR at the time, so will trust my memory over yours on this.

“Given that our medical team doesn’t seem to be able to diagnose an injury to Sanchez,”

“Seems” is the operative word. He’s doing about like Hoch after the ankle injury, fastball slow, up, and flat, and breaking stuff without sharp bite. Probably trying to let him work through it for a few more starts. Not all injuries go to the DL and in this case it may be disrupted mechanics after an injury, also like Hochevar went through. That isn’t unusual for pitchers.

“I think Sanchez would be better served by being optioned to Omaha than by being put on the DL.”

Of course, then trade Myers and Odorizzi for a national league pitcher with three months left on a fat contract:)? I’m teasing, you’re more reasonable than that. I think Sanchez gets a few more starts, then they do something, if needed, after the ASB. Pitchers are funny folks and I’ll trust the judgement that prophesied that Hoch would improve to 2nd half 2011 form a couple of weeks ago. Sanchez is an FA after this year and Omaha won’t do much for the Royals. The idea is likely to have him put together a couple of good starts, then trade him for a warm body and move on, probably with JaKKKe if he stays consistent and hope Monty continues his small improvements and bring Chris Dwyer up from Springdale to Omaha and see if he really has gotten it. John Lamb is throwing again, so the second half of this year could start getting interesting.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim F -

To be fair to you, there were plenty of people bashing Davies (and Luke) on Royals Review, but not all the commenters there are advanced stat guys, just like not all the commenters here are anti-stat guys.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Brendan, true. My experience is that most stat guys are just repeaters, not independent thinkers. That’s one thing I like about you, you can get outside the box and think independently. I heard Wil McD is leaving, might be an opportunity for you and/or Mark. You are both much better writers and capable of going a little beyond fangraphs to generate insights. If you ever do an audition fanshot, let me know.

“not all the commenters here are anti-stat guys.”

We’re all stat guys, we just favor some stats over others. The reason I was comparing Grit to fg earlier in the season was not to show it identical but to show it coherent and valid, even though it was decades older and could be done on a bar napkin, no offense Lee, and valued things that later systems still don’t do well. We’re all after the same thing, deeper understanding. We just sometimes walk different paths.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Matthew,

Thanks for explaining that to me. I did not know it was that indepth. Still doesn’t convince me that “Youkalis, for his career, has been an outstaning hitter. A phenomenal hitter. One of the best hitters in the American League year after year.” as Curtis stated. I don’t even think he is in the argument.
John Miller
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Full disclosure: I’m a Royals fan living in the Boston area, so I make it out to Fenway every now and then. Still, I listen to Denny and Ryan far more often than I listen to Jerry Remy.

To bring up the Youkilis trade again, just imagine Mike Moustakas winning two World Series for the Royals, then getting traded. As Royals fans, think about how we feel when we yell “Moose.” In Boston, the chant has always been “Youuuk!” Now imagine you’re sitting in the bleachers at Fenway. It’s the bottom of the ninth and the game is tied. You’re yelling “Youuuk!” as his fly ball bangs off the right-field wall. The winning run scores, and the PA starts blaring out The Standells’ “Dirty Water,” and the whole stadium starts singing along. People know that Will Middlebrooks is playing better than Youkilis, but it’s the memories like this that people will miss. Now it’s only David Ortiz who’s left from the ‘04 and ‘07 World Series teams.