Games » St. Louis Cardinals
Jun23Strengths and limitations
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
For starters, give some credit to the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright. When everyone on a team struggles at the plate, maybe it’s because of the opposing pitcher. But after giving credit where credit is due, take a look at the Royals’ offensive approach.
Right now, manager Ned Yost thinks his hitters are swinging at too many pitcher’s pitches. Hearing that, some critics will immediately blame hitting coach Kevin Seitzer. (Kevin and I haven’t discussed it, but I’m pretty confident he’s not telling his hitters to look for something nasty on the black low and away.)
So why do hitters go after those pitches? Lots of reasons. They’re young. They’re pressing to make something happening. The pitcher fools them with late movement. They’re thinking too much. They’re not seeing the ball well. If I knew more about hitting, the list could go on for a while.
(I know one thing: If the Royals aren’t hitting, it isn’t because they don’t work hard enough. I’m at the ballpark early every day, and I see how much time Seitzer and the hitters put in on a daily basis.)
All players, coaches and managers have strengths and limitations. When fans are happy with someone, they focus on his strengths. When they’re unhappy with someone, they focus on his limitations. Baseball provides plenty of evidence for any case you want to make. Seasons do not go smoothly. Teams and players have their ups and downs. Looking at both the good and the bad is the only way to get an accurate picture of what someone brings to the table.
So if you want to blame Seitzer for the Royals’ current offensive woes, go ahead — but, as Robert Ford pointed out on his postgame show — don’t forget that this is the same guy who had the Royals hitting last season, helped Alex Gordon find a workable approach at the plate, helped Billy Butler add some power to his stroke, helped Jeff Francoeur to one of his better seasons, did the same for Melky Cabrera, helped Mike Moustakas through his slump and probably had something to do with Alcides Escobar hitting .300.
Everybody has strengths and limitations.
Game notes
First inning: Alex Gordon bunted for a hit. Wainwright picked up the ball and hit Gordon in the backside with the throw. Alex then started shaking his hand, which seemed like an odd reaction. I had no idea that getting hit in the butt hurts your left hand. It turns out that the ball hit Gordon’s finger when he bunted and it raised a blood blister. Alex popped the blister and played on. (Alex’s injury probably had Mitch Maier looking for his glove. I’ll explain why in a moment.)
Third inning: A ball was hit directly at center fielder Jarrod Dyson. He did what outfielders are taught to do when a ball is hit in the air: Drop step (you never want to backpedal — it’s too slow) and freeze until you have a read. Dyson got a read that told him to get on his horse and go. He did and made the catch.
Later in the inning, a St. Louis batter walked, then eventually scored and the Cardinals were up 1-0.
Fourth inning: Alex Gordon led off with a walk, and when the count reached 3-2 on Billy Butler, Gordon took off for second, even though there was one out. Managers often will send runners on full counts to stay out of double plays as long as they trust the hitter to either get the ball in play or show good judgment if the ball is out of the strike zone. Butler flied out to center field, and Alex returned to first.
Fifth inning: With one down and Daniel Descalso on first base, The Cardinals’ Rafael Furcal hit a grounder to Yuniesky Betancourt’s right. Yuni was at second base, and the ball may have been partially shielded by the umpire. In any case, Betancourt did not dive for the ball in an attempt to knock it down and keep the runner from advancing to third.
(When keeping the ball on the infield is a priority, the catcher will make a downward motion with the palms of his hands, reminding the infielders they need to try to knock down any grounder, even if they have no play at first base.)
Jon Jay followed with a single to right field, and Descalso scored from third base. Had Descalso been on second, Jeff Francoeur’s reputation for throwing out runners might have prevented the run from scoring — at least temporarily.
After the game, Ned Yost was asked whether Betancourt needed to dive for some of the balls that snuck through just out of his reach. Ned said that Yuni’s range is still a bit hampered, that he sometimes has been in a bad position to dive and that when he has laid out for some balls, the results haven’t been a whole lot better. Bottom line: Chris Getz is hurt, and Betancourt has hit as well or better than anyone else in the month of June.
Matt Holliday followed all that up with a bullet at Mike Moustakas that hit Mike’s glove but got away for another single. The score was 3-0 with one out in the fifth, and it appeared that Luis Mendoza was once again struggling in third at-bats. Kelvin Herrera was called in from the pen.
Sixth inning: Francisley Bueno replaced Herrera. Bueno left a change-up up in the strike zone — they need to start low and dive out of the zone — and Matt Carpenter whacked it for a single. Tony Cruz, the Cardinals’ catcher, came to the plate next, and when the count moved from 2-1 to 2-2, the entire Royals outfield shifted toward the opposite field.
Outfielders move with the counts. When a hitter is ahead in the count and aggressive, the outfielders will play the hitter to pull. When the hitter is behind in the count and trying to wait as long as possible to identify a pitch before swinging, the outfielders will play them the other way.
In this case, none of it mattered. Cruz hit the ball to short (hitters tend to pull when they hit the ball on the ground) and was safe at first on a fielder’s choice. By the time the inning was over, the Cardinals lead 5-2.
Seventh inning: The Cardinals’ Allen Craig hits a two-run homer, putting the game out of reach. Once again, the Royals are expending innings out of the pen on a game they are unlikely to win.
Here’s hoping that none of those lost innings is a deciding factor Sunday.
Stretching your zone
It’s Saturday morning, and Billy Butler, Mitch Maier and Alex Gordon were sitting in the clubhouse, watching video of Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals’ starter. I asked what Wainwright does, and they each explained what pitches they were likely to see that day.
As Ned Yost said after the game, “Everybody knows everybody.” Hitters have either faced a pitcher before or they refer to the video and other information that is provided to them. The game is less about surprise than it is about execution. Hitters know what pitches they probably will see. What they don’t know is how good those pitches will be, for instance, if the pitcher likes to come inside when the hitter is behind in the count and looking to hit the ball the other way. Will the pitcher get it inside or leave it out over the plate?
Mitch said we should watch the next at-bat on the video. It’s Mitch. Wainwright threw Mitch a “backdoor” curve — a pitch that starts off the plate away from the hitter and carries into the zone at the last moment. The pitch was clearly a ball, but it was called a strike. Wainwright threw the same pitch again — why not? — and it was called a ball.
I asked Mitch what that does to a hitter’s head. No surprise: it screws it up. Now the hitter is unsure what will be called a strike and what will be called a ball. Billy said everyone tells hitters not to stretch their zones — don’t let the umpire mess with your pitch selection — and nobody follows that advice. In fact, a hitter may get more aggressive because he doesn’t want to find himself in a two-strike situation with an umpire he doesn’t trust.
So next time you see a hitter chase a borderline pitch, there may be a reason.
Harder than it looks
After seeing the video of me throwing my body in front of baseballs in an attempt to block pitches in the dirt, we should all appreciate catcher Salvador Perez that much more. After Friday night’s game, Mike Moustakas pointed out how Sal blocks pitches. Instead of the ball ricocheting off in totally new directions, Perez can block a pitch and have it fall straight at his feet, like a chicken laying an egg. My blocks meant I would have had to run after the ball. Sal’s blocks mean that the ball is right there in front of him, and the base-runners aren’t going anywhere.
So next time you see a catcher block a pitch, pay attention to how far the ball rolls.
The bench player
OK, back to why Mitch would be looking for his glove after Alex Gordon hurt his hand. Mitch has to stay ready the entire game. Every couple of innings he leaves the dugout and warms up. If someone gets hurt, he may find himself on the field almost immediately. There’s not much time to get loose.
And, as any baseball player will tell you, the ball will find you. Several times this season, Mitch has come into a game and the next ball in play was his. That’s why you see him laughing when it happens.
What kills Mitch is how easily Billy Butler handles the same situation. Apparently, right before Billy hit that game-tying run in St. Louis, all he did was take a couple dry hacks, step to the plate and hit a 98-mph fastball 438 feet.
As Mitch said, “Billy was born to hit.” After a couple of my video adventures, I think I can safely say some of us were born to get hit.
Gordon
Betancourt
Escobar
Jim Fetterolf
11 months agoJust one of those games, Gordon and Mijares were the bright spots. Maybe they all got it out of their systems for the next week.
Lee Judge
11 months agoMendoza did OK until the third time through the order, but there just wasn’t enough offense to keep up with the Cardinals.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months agoI wonder if the low offense forces pitchers to try to be to fine, to try to throw a shutout every time? Hitters aren’t the only ones who press.
As for Mendoza, some of it is third time and some of it might be defense. He’s a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher and two or three or more of those hits were grounders that snuck through.
John Wilson
11 months agoMendoza pitched fairly well through the lineup a couple times but didn’t seem able to consistantly throw strikes and his pitch count reflected it IMO. By the third time through the lineup, he just didn’t have enough gas left in his tank. At least thats how I saw it.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago“Especially when he’s the weakest hitting of the THREE CATCHERS YOU’RE CARRYING?”
Take his RBIs and divide by PAs. Then do the same thing with the other regulars.
“I’m starting to believe that Eric Hosmer would be best served by getting some hacks in up in Omaha.”
Of course, Rany tweeted that today. You guys are a few weeks late to the party.
Luke Healy
11 months agoafter every loss the sky is falling and this team has serious holes, this player needs to go back to the minors and that player is terrible.
and just a few days ago the royals had won what, 6 out of 7?
yes they have holes—every team does. and yes these were two pretty bad losses (never mind they were against the reigning world champs with our 4 and 5 starters).
i like this site because it focuses on the game of baseball and it’s inner workings. i love this site because it gives insight often directly from the players themselves—something i think is very unique.
so if you want to complain, i recommend royals review—lots of cynical sarcasm there. i know i’ve been guilty a time or two as well, but the comments are always way more enjoyable when it’s an intelligent conversation about the game, not venting frustrations.
thanks!
Jim Fetterolf
11 months agoA brief note from the farm, Mike Montgomery posted a quality start, 6 innings, 6 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 k. He has six quality starts in his last ten games, but his Ks are down and BBs up from expectations. Making some progress, but slow.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months agoIf you look at wOBA (which takes walks, singles, doubles, etc and weights them according to their value), the Royals have five position players who have hit above league average in June: Perez (small sample), Gordon, Butler, Moose, and Hosmer.
Yuni is not among them. His triple slash for June is .241/.276/.500, almost exactly the same as his hitting for the full year, and worse than a run-of-the-mill MLB hitter. His defense, if anything, is getting worse.
The Royals are not going to contend this season. We might as well find out what we have. We know what Yuni is. Let’s find out what we have in Getz and Gio (and Falu if the scouts think his hitting is for real).
Thayne Griffin
11 months agoSince I didn’t get to yesterday’s comments:
“That’s just silly. The point of competitive, professional sports is to WIN.”
For fans, true; for owners, could not be more false - why do you think they complain about losing money when CBAs come up?! To make players and fans mad? No. They choose to own teams as a business and to make money. The way they go about doing that is up to them and some are willing to sacrifice more of their profit margins than others.
However, I do agree that we need more quality SP no question - that has been the issue with the team for years. In my opinion, David Glass isn’t an owner that we move forward with in any capacity and hope to win, but that’s just my two cents…Maybe Mark Cuban could save us and buy the team, lord knows he wants one. Maybe bringing the Royals back would be a challenge he would like to have, but he’d have to know he could make enough money..
Today:
“I’m starting to believe that Eric Hosmer would be best served by getting some hacks in up in Omaha. He’s just lost at the plate right now, looking to pull virtually everything, and hitting everything he touches meekly on the ground.”
I believe yesterday he hit two(?) balls opposite field.. That’s sure pulling virtually everything. His opposite field percentage about a week ago was 48+%. Good for top 5 in the league at the time.
RE: Frenchy I still think he’d be best suited in a park with short porches in LF and RF for hitting (now he tries to pull too much!) and fielding (below average range imo). Apparently the Royals have been on and off shopping him (http://kansascity.sbnation.com/kansas-city-royals/2012/6/23/3113706/jeff-francoeur-royals-trade-rumors)
In regards to winning, this year I wanted us to be 81-81 (I can’t even remember us being above .500 once, granted I’m quite a bit younger than the rest of the readers/commenters…). If we don’t reach .500 I will see it as a set back so hopefully these last two games aren’t the start of another long losing streak..
Thayne Griffin
11 months ago“His defense, if anything, is getting worse.”
Didn’t think it was possible after watching him all last summer in Milwaukee, but it has. Unbelievable - couldn’t agree more.
“The Royals are not going to contend this season. We might as well find out what we have. We know what Yuni is. Let’s find out what we have in Getz and Gio (and Falu if the scouts think his hitting is for real).”
Yes.
“the Royals have five position players who have hit above league average in June: Perez (small sample), Gordon, Butler, Moose, and Hosmer.”
One reason why I don’t know Frenchy is in the 5-hole (I think Moose should be). I’m guessing it is the R-L-R-L order from 3-6, but not sure.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months agoThayne -
Good points on the hitters. Where did you get the stats on opposite field percentage? I haven’t seen
I don’t agree with (or read all of) everything Mark Owens says, but I’m with him on owners’ profits. If somebody buys a luxury yacht or a vacation home, they don’t expect to make money on them. Hobbies and luxuries provide value to their owners in other ways. Sports teams do too (who among us wouldn’t want to own an MLB team?). The idea that a sports team should be financially profitable to the owner is pretty anomalous. Most hobbies and luxuries cost money. Owners have a right to cap their losses, but if they enjoy owning the team so little that it’s not worth doing unless they’re making millions of dollars in the process, they should sell the team to somebody with a greater love for (and enjoyment of) the game.
Thayne Griffin
11 months ago“but if they enjoy owning the team so little that it’s not worth doing unless they’re making millions of dollars in the process, they should sell the team to somebody with a greater love for (and enjoyment of) the game.”
YES. Why I don’t like Glass. Never hear of him around the team or anything (may be off base there, but I never hear about it).
Brendan,
Will try and find where I saw that. The league leader was 50.something percent. I’ll post it if I find it.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago“how about I take a look at his OPS (.598),”
I like RBI/PA better, as it actually considers scoring runs. Last I looked he had nearly as many ribbies as Alez on half the PAs.
“And that fact(?) has exactly NOTHING to do with its validity.”
Like I said, you’re late to the party. I made the case a few weeks back and the case hasn’t changed. With Rany’s tweet it is now a talking point and I expect to see it everywhere tomorrow. That’s the way it works.
“The Royals are not going to contend this season.”
The Royals are contending now, that’s the blessing of a weak division.
Thayne Griffin
11 months agoBrendan,
Could not find the specific article, but did discover a few things (you may or may not have known these already, enlightening to me nonetheless):
Splitting the field into 3 zones angle wise (oppo, center, pull - seemed the easiest way to do it) and infield/outfield using all batted balls (infield/outfield based on where the ball is fielded - unfortunately does not split into hits or out either):
Opposite Field 50 batted balls (29.24%) Infield: 13 - 7.6% Outfield: 37 - 21.64%
Center 74 batted balls (43.27%) Infield: 19 - 11.11% Outfield: 55 - 32.16%
Pull 47 batted balls (27.49%) Infield: 23 - 13.45% Outfield: 24 - 14.04%
So the article I must have come across showed 48% of his HITS were to the opposite field (how they determine what is oppo I don’t know, I would assume 3 zone split as I have here?), nonetheless, he hits up the middle and oppo more than pull this season, however, his balls fielded in the infield are most often pulled.
Data is from http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/battedballlocation.php You can basically pick any hitter and timezone to split the batted balls up however you want. I included all hit types (HR, FB, LD, GB) but the final results doesn’t split that out unfortunately.
Using June of this year only (to give recent data):
Oppo 12 batted balls Infield: 5 Outfield: 7
Center 17 batted balls Infield: 5 Outfield: 12
Pull 12 batted balls Infield: 6 Outfield: 6
Thayne Griffin
11 months agoAnd if you split only into 2 zones (left and right of 2b) the results are:
Left infield 23 batted balls Left outfield 63 batted balls
Right infield 32 batted balls Right outfield 53 batted balls
Basically split down the middle.
Terry Payne
11 months agoDetroit may yet run away with the division now that they have their regular centerfielder back. However, they have other problems and are not likely to do so. The rest of the division is underwhelming.
Therefore, I say do NOT trade any significant prospects for a SP, and let Hos and other struggling hitters work through their problems and learn while, hopefully, staying in some sort of competition. It may not be a deadheat pennant race, but if the team can stay reasonably close and not pull the usual fold, they can do nothing but benefit from the experience.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months agoAgree, Terry.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months agoJim F -
Are you trying to say that Quintero is a good hitter? Or that he’s been a good hitter this year?
Or is this just an exercise to illustrate that if you ignore context, you can find data to support almost any position, no matter how ridiculous?
Quintero is batting .241/.250/.328 with runners in scoring position. When measured by wOBA (which incorporates all of those statistics, weighted appropriately), Quintero is 3rd worst on the team with runners in scoring position. With runners in scoring position, Bryan Pena has been better than Quintero by every single rate stat I can find (wOBA, AVG, OBP, SLG)
RBIs are a crummy measure of a hitter because they tell you more about how many runners got on base ahead of the hitter than how the hitter did. If you want to know how a hitter did, you need to normalize for the different number of opportunities to drive in runs each hitter has. The obvious way is to just look at their rate stats (AVG/OBP/SLG or wOBA) with men on base or runners in scoring position, but if you’re determined to use RBIs, you need to divide by plate appearances with runners in scoring position or with men on base (hint: the gap between Gordon [a leadoff hitter] and Quintero drops from 170 to 15 when you only look at PAs with RISP).
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago“Are you trying to say that Quintero is a good hitter? Or that he’s been a good hitter this year?”
No, I am trying to say that he gets more RBIs per PA than other Royals. When speaking of runners in scoring position, that seems a valid stat.
“RBIs are a crummy measure of a hitter because they tell you more about how many runners got on base ahead of the hitter than how the hitter did.”
They are a crummy measure for fantasy, which is based on the individual rather than a team, where context is part of performance.
“The obvious way is to just look at their rate stats (AVG/OBP/SLG or wOBA) with men on base or runners in scoring position, but if you’re determined to use RBIs,”
We did that a few months ago when some posters would “rather have anybody but Chris Getz batting with two outs and runners in scoring position.”
“and Quintero drops from 170 to 15 when you only look at PAs with RISP).”
Best case against Q is RISP, where he has a line of .182/.182/.212 with 6 RBIs and 7 Ks in 33 PAs. Runner on 3rd, 2-out, 5 RBI/15 PA, runners on 2nd qand 3rd, 5 RBI/7PA.
Alex Gordon is at .172/.314/.207 with 4 RBIs and 9 Ks in 35 PAs. Interesting Yuni is .167/.250/.292 2ith 9 RBIs, 3 Ks, in 29 PAs.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months agoDisregard that, screwed-up Q’s stats. We need an edit button. Try this again:
Quintero’s line, RISP, is .241/.250/.328 with 17 RBI, 11 K in 60 PA. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, 5 RBI/7PA. On 3rd, 2-out, 5RBI/17PA.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months agoJim F -
I know that (in spite of the requests two weeks ago for more civility and comity on the comments here), you like to try to work digs into every post, but this one actually undermines your own point.
RBIs are very important for fantasy. They’re one of the 5 hitting stats in a standard rotisserie setup. But good roto players aren’t necessarily the players you want on your team in real life. Roto was set up in the early eighties when players had access to only crude stats which is why it uses old-school measures (R, RBI, HR, AVG, SB). The stats like wOBA, UZR, and WAR that are cited on here aren’t very useful in a roto league, but they’re much more effective at figuring out good players to play on a real team.
RBI/PA might be useful in a fantasy context, but they’re about the last thing I’d look at when deciding who I want at the plate in a RISP situation.
And I don’t know where you got your RISP stats, but they’re wrong. Quintero has 60 PAs with RISP.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months agoThayne -
Thanks for the tip on baseballheatmaps.com. I think that’s the site done by Jeff Zimmerman of Royals Review. Lots of interesting stuff on there that I can’t find elsewhere.