Games: Houston Astros, June 20: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Houston Astros

Jun20

Another close one

The Royals are now 31-36, which means they have been playing some pretty good baseball since the losing streak. If my memory is correct — and there’s every chance it isn’t—the Royals started the season 3-15. I would check this on the Internet, but during the game either my router or modem or the hamster that I’m convinced runs on a wheel inside my computer died, and I don’t currently have access to the Web.

The other thing I wanted to check — maybe you can do it for me — is whether Bruce Chen established his fastball first and then went to his off-speed stuff. Manager Ned Yost said Bruce got crushed in St. Louis because everything was in the low 80s and he waited too long to establish his upper-80s fastball. Ned said he thought Bruce needed to speed the bats up, then slow them down.

Whether it was that adjustment or just simply pitching to the Astros instead of the Cardinals, Chen got much better results in Houston and made sure the flight back to KC was a happy one.

Game notes

Second inning: When a game is played by National League rules, pay attention to the man hitting eighth. If he can get on base, especially with two outs, and bring the pitcher to the plate, he’s done a good job. With two outs, Chen hit the No. 8 hitter, which allowed the Astros to clear the pitcher’s spot.

Fifth inning: Mike Moustakas doubled and then, in a key at-bat, Alcides Escobar moved Mike to third with a ground ball. Third-base coaches have a sign that tells hitters to move the runner over or try to drive them in. If the man at the plate is the best chance to score the run, his team may want him to drive the ball. If his team likes who they have on deck and in the hole, they may want the hitter to move the runner over.

Esky’s ground ball made sure Brayan Pena’s ground ball got a run in.

Sixth inning: Alex Gordon tripled with one out. Yuniesky Betancourt came to the plate with a key at-bat. The hitter cannot strike out in this situation. He needs to get the ball in play, somehow, someway. Yuni did, Alex scored, and the Royals were up 2-0.

Eighth inning: Brayan Pena hit a deep fly ball, and the Astros center fielder had to run up the incline just in front of the wall to make the catch. Fans may find these field gimmicks entertaining, but ballplayers would rather play on a “normal” field. If there were booby traps and land mines at your place of work, it might be highly entertaining for onlookers, but you probably would feel the way ballplayers do when they see an incline with a flag pole in play.

In the bottom of the inning, we saw how a rested bullpen can change the game. On Monday, Ned had to stick with Louis Coleman. On Wednesday, he could use Jose Mijares to get one out.

After Houston’s Carlos Lee got a hit, pitcher J.A. Happ came out as a pinch-runner. This is another advantage NL teams have. Their pitchers are used to running the bases, going to the plate and getting down bunts. AL managers are reluctant to send a pitcher out to run the bases if he hasn’t done so in a long time.

Ninth inning: Closer Jonathan Broxton came out and did what he generally does. He made it interesting, but he got the save. The fact that a closer who has 18 saves and an ERA of 1.57 still manages to make fans angry shows how spoiled we are after watching Joakim Soria.

Jack made a very hard thing look easy. Brox makes a very hard thing look just as hard as it really is.

How a homer hurts you

Billy Butler, who homered in Tuesday’s game, says that if you hit a home run, 95 percent of the time you will get the same pitch again. It may seem illogical, but the pitcher will throw it again precisely because you don’t think he will. In fact, according to Billy, a home run can mean a bad day. The hitter can start over-swinging, trying to pull and lift the ball.

When Clint Hurdle was the Colorado Rockies’ hitting coach, any player who hit a home run in batting practice got a small fine if he didn’t hit the next pitch to the opposite field. It was Clint’s way of reminding hitters not to get pull-happy.

So if a hitter pulls a fly ball out of the park, he may want to look for something on the outer half of the plate in his next at-bat … unless he thinks the pitcher is one step ahead of him and will come back inside and jam him with the same pitch that got crushed.

According to Billy, the winner of this mind game will be whoever realizes the other player’s pattern first. Last Sunday against the Cardinals, Yuniesky Betancourt won the battle when he figured he would not see another slider after doubling off the last one. Yuni then looked for a fastball and hit it out of the park for the game winner.

When baseball is played at this level, there’s a lot more going on than meets the eye.

Frenchy’s formula

Denny Matthews said before Wednesday’s game that Jeff Francoeur had hits in 21 of his last 26 games and batted .330 over that span. So how come Frenchy is hitting the ball better? According to Jeff, it has to do with getting his hands in a better starting position. Before this hot streak, Jeff was taking his hands back, and that was causing him to be late on the fastball. Now Francoeur is starting with his hands farther back and is now on time.

The worst place a hitter can be is in between: late on the fastball, early on the off-speed stuff. When a hitter is late on the hard stuff, he starts earlier in an effort to catch up. If the pitcher notices this, he will switch to off-speed pitches — now the hitter is early.

Jeff says that since the adjustment, he is now right on time on fastballs but still has his hands back when he gets a different pitch.

Comments

Greg Tatro
11 months ago

I’ll give Yost credit for looking at the silver lining of a 12 game losing streak…if you can’t handle the pressure of being in a streak like that in April, you will wilt under the pressure of important games in September. So if the Royals learned how to handle that and it takes them into September then it was worth it.

You could make the case that they learned how already by winning all these close ones. It would be nice though if they could get a nice 5-8 run win over the Cards.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“It would be nice though if they could get a nice 5-8 run win over the Cards.”

Best part of that would be listening to my Cardinal fan friends whining about it:)

“Chen got much better results in Houston and made sure the flight back to KC was a happy one.”

Even good pitchers have bad games. Chen seems to have the gift of selective amnesia and can go back out next time with a clean slate and pitch a good one. I did like the idea of bringing him back on short rest after the equivalent of a bullpen session, get him back on the horse.
Lee Judge
11 months ago

Looked it up now that I have the internet back: the Royals actually started 3-14. I forgot the first loss of the 12-game losing streak was in Oakland.

Greg: Maybe Ned was on to something when he said the losing streak would eventually make the team better. The way you get out of the streak is the same way you win a tight one: pitch by pitch.

Jim: Yeah, Ned’s decision to bring Bruce back on short rest—since he didn’t throw that much in his last start—looks like a good one.
Aaron Bailey
11 months ago

Not that he’ll admit, but I wonder if Yost didn’t want Chen facing the Cards again so soon as well.

And Lee, do you purposely write about the opposite points of view? Yesterday you wrote about hitters “not thinking” and today about Billy and Yuni trying to figure out what the pitcher is the thinking. There’s just no easy way to play this game, is there? That, along with watching Hoch pitch last night with his scaled back arsenal reminds me of the Bull Durham line, “Don’t think, just throw.”
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

Lee, I admit it has crossed my mind to go to a four man rotation when the staff is averaging five innings per start. Forty starts of five innings each is two hundred innings, a not unreasonable load for a major league starter. If Bruce or Luke or Felipe screw up and pitch seven innings, give them an extra day and insert spot starter.

Given that starters are expensive and rare and relievers cheap and available, this would be a possible exploitation of a market inefficiency, an extension of the idea behind the Royals’ twenty-man bullpen, said bullpen likely to inspire a movie ten years from now, “I-29ball”.
John Wilson
11 months ago

I just want to say that even using Gameday to “watch” the game today, Scary Broxton in the ninth is still scary. I prefer Beast Broxton not to wait until a runner is in scoring position but, like Lee says, Soria has spoiled us.
Jeff Frost
11 months ago

Loving this team! I agree- we persevered through a losing streak and became stronger! Now are winning the close ones! This team IS a divisional champion on October 2, 2012!

BTW- lost in everything is what pitching coach Dave Eiland has done with this staff!!! Work fast, get ahead in the count, throw strikes, change speeds, change location! He gets it! We have improved dramatically the more he has taught our staff his philosophy.

Also- Moose is playing amazing defense! He has saved us at least 3 games over the last 9 games. You can tell he is a converted shortstop. Scouts were always concerned about his weight, but he looks great!

Go Royals! True Blue!
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

Good observations on Dave Eiland, Jeff. The staff does seem to be evolving right before our eyes.

“This team IS a divisional champion on October 2, 2012!”

I’m not quite that brave, yet, but I think the Royals will have something to say about who is.

BTW, Sal Perez was 4-4 tonight against the Memphis team.
Lee Judge
11 months ago

Aaron: Yeah, this game is complicated, but I should probably clarify what I meant.

The hitters think before the pitch is thrown. If they try to hit everything—all speeds, all trajectories, all locations—they’ll have a hard time hiting anything.

So most of them are “sitting” on a pitch: fastball down the middle, something away, last time he came in on me in this count, I’ll be ready for it—that kind of stuff.

But once the pitcher starts his motion, they’re supposed to clear their minds and react.

So they do a little of both—think and react—but they have to do the right one at the right time.

And that’s not easy.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

A little news from Jen Nevius at Kings of Kauffman: Lorenzo Cain started tonight for the Springdale Naturals and went 2-5 with 2 runs scored and played 9 innings. Less good was Felipe Paulino, 3 innings, 3 runs on 4 hits, 2 homers allowed in his rehab start. Things could be getting crowded over the next several weeks.

http://kingsofkauffman.com/2012/06/20/royals-june-20th-minors-recap/
Joel Kallem
11 months ago

Don’t believe this is the year to mortgage the future of the team by rushing our prospects up to the bigs. This is the year to let the chips fall where they might as far as a division title; next year is the year to really make a push. Just as we were not as bad as the 12 game streak seemed to have us, we are not as good as the recent run of good starting pitching and winning low scoring games would seem to portray us. The year started out with us looking at a .500 or slightly better team (progress), and I don’t think anything has really changed in this regard.
Steve Yeakel
11 months ago

Lee - to me, Chen’s did throw early fastballs, but unlike in St. Louis, they were not up in the zone like last time. Also, a couple of questions for Ned - what is his philosophy for giving position players a day off? It seems that Esky missed 2 or 3 plays he normally would have made yesterday, he is usually so dependable and brilliant, I am wondering if it was the 15 inning game, the grind, and whether players won’t admit to him they are dragging. It seems other teams give their position players a day off every couple of weeks. Also, what is Ned’s philosophy about using the hot hand out of the bullpen? Houston’s announcers yesterday said Kelvin pitched like the best pitcher in the world in the 7th, that he was unhittable. So, why not send him out for the 8th when he is having a great day and has another inning left in his arm, rather than risk that Holland may have a bad day? Thank you.
John Wilson
11 months ago

Have I missed the injury update on Getz? I remember hearing or reading he was on the DL but not what the followup diagnosis was or how long he’d be out.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

A couple of quick thoughts:

Wil Myers isn’t ready, even if a rapid promotion wouldn’t waste a bunch of millions of dollars in the future in contract considerations. He is finding breaking stuff to be a challenge in AAA, he is hitting in a band box of a park where Kauffman Stadium fly outs become homers, and he is hitting in a league with offense such that his .331 average doesn’t put him in the top ten, but does put him 4 points ahead of Johnny Giavotella and well behind Irving Falu on the team.

JaKKKKe Odorizzi is probably closer, having a better AAA campaign than Danny Duffy was, not quite as dominant on some days, not as bad on others, showing better consistency. He’s not having near the year Luis Mendoza did last year, but he’s having a good year. I expect him after the ASB.

Joe Saunders has some decent numbers, but wouldn’t I trade much of anyone for a three month rental from the NL. If he is seen as part of the future, he might be available for $10 mil/year in the off-season but will want a four year deal.

For those in a hurry to make a desperation move, there is no need. With the return pending of three injured starters, Perez, Cain, and Paulino, the team will acquire a large amount of talent for “free” to add to a team that is already contending and competitive. Add to that that Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon and Frenchy are all starting to at least get a few hits and the club looks nicely positioned for a run at the division.

“what is his philosophy for giving position players a day off?”

Steve, the recall of Irving Falu will allow Escobar some off days. Royals haven’t had a back-up middle infielder since Chris Getz got hurt again.
Tom Roesler
11 months ago

“Don’t shoot till you see the whites of their eyes.”

It’s all about perspective. If you believe this is the ONLY year the Royals have a chance to win, then yes…go crazy and call everyone up and rent some starters from other teams.

However, if you believe (like I do) that this is just the beginning, then there is no need to hurry.

This season is just another step in the right direction. It started several years ago in areas most people don’t see (front office, scouting, minor league development, etc.). Now, the changes are happening in more visible areas (talent making it to the majors, w-l record improving, confidence growing). The next step is championships.

I honestly think most people were fine with thinking this was simply a year for the Royals to finish at or over .500…until the Marketing office jumped the gun and told everyone, “This is our time.” It’s close, but not yet.

That said, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if this team took off in the second half and did win the Central. And, if that happens, it will be like playing with house money. But, if it doesn’t, no biggie. They will take another step forward next season.

It’s time to stay the course, not go crazy like some silly Hollywood movie or idiot talk radio host who thinks everything either needs to happen instantly or it will never happen at all. That’s foolish.
John Wilson
11 months ago

“the club looks nicely positioned for a run at the division.”

smile There is a discussion point that has been missing for years while discussing the Royals.
Lee Judge
11 months ago

Steve: I don’t know that I’ve ever heard Ned articulate a particular philosophy about giving starters a day off. He does it, but I don’t know if there’s a formula for it or he deals with it as it comes up.

His bench has been short the last few days. He needed extra pitching after St. Louis, but now everyone’s getting a day off so they should be at full strength tomorrow.

As for hot hands out of the pen: one of the things I’ve been writing about a lot lately is the mental side of the game.

Alex likes to be in the one-hole and needs three pieces of a certain brand of gum to be comfortable. Esky seems to hit better down in the order. Broxton has a whole routine he uses to be ready for the 9th.

Maybe it shouldn’t be that way, but it is. Some guys are bullet-proof and don’t care where they hit or pitch, some guys are better in a set role. It’s part of the manager’s job to figure out which players are which.

In most cases I think Ned believes set roles are better over the long haul. Say you like what Herrera did in the 7th and send him out for the 8th. Say Holland is warming for the 8th and now may not get used.

Next time he goes out Herrera may think he needs to save something in case he’s asked to pitch another inning. Next time Holland may not get all the way warmed up thinking he may get a “dry hump” (baseball for slang for warming up and not getting in the game).

Most of the players I’ve talked with like knowing what’s expected of them beforehand. They feel it helps them mentally prepare.

It doesn’t mean a manager would never do anything unexpected, but most of the time, they’d prefer not to.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Jim,

“Things could start getting crowded in the next few weeks.”

This is true but that is a bad thing b/c the Royals will probably not have room for all of these guys b/c they have to run such a thin bench due to the lack of quality SPing. Say what you want about this last series against the Astros, but the SPing is still not good. That is not a “fad” either. That is the truth. They can’t count on these guys to get through the 7th inning with any consistency so they can’t give away any relievers to AAA, which means that they don’t have alot of room for all of these guys coming up. They will be DFAing/Trading Quintero or Pena by this time tomorrow to make room for Salvy. When Cain is ready they will have to make a decision whether to keep him at AAA or send Dyson down b/c they can’t carry both on the MLB roster due to the SPing issues. Which sucks b/c Dyson would be great to bring off the bench in pinch running situations. Don’t forget about Paulino either. Who are they going to send down to make room for him?? Adcock?? Mazzaro?? They both have done enough to deserve to stay. And lets face it, with this SPing they need a couple of Adcock/Mazzero type of pitchers in case Chen gets shelled, like he did against the Cards or Hoch decides to forget Eiland’s message. Which, frankly, is highly possible given it was the same msg that they were preaching to him last season and he decided not to implement this season. (Not buying the injury “fad” that you keep mentioning about Hoch).

Bottom line, While I love the play, I think we are getting WAY ahead of ourselves b/c this team does not have the horses in the rotation to make this work for the rest of the season and the offense is just not delivering with the consistency that they did last season. I will continue to cheer, as I have for the last 33 yrs and watch the majority of the games (at my wife’s chagrin) but I am taking this season for what it is, a mirage, and a chance for us to stay focused on the Royals later in the summer then we have for a REALLY LONG TIME. But it won’t amount to much at the end of the season. I hope GMDM makes a solid run at at least one frontline SP that has a history of pitching 200 innings b/c that is what this team needs the most!!
Aaron Cooper
11 months ago

Frenchy hitting .237/.257/.254 in the month of June. Yeah, boy those adjustments sure are paying off…or maybe he just had two good weeks in May and has been a terrible (not okay, TERRIBLE) player the rest of the season. Of course DM and Yost won’t be holding him accountable though.
Tom Roesler
11 months ago

Gotta say I agree with Darral, although I might not have the same word choice. I don’t think this season is a mirage…I do think it’s an indication that we’re getting better and that the pieces are starting to come together. But, they’re not all in place yet and we do need to do something about the starting rotation.

If nothing else, seeing your starters consistently not make it through the 6th is demoralizing over the long haul (to the fans at a minimum, to the other team members at a maximum). So, in order to take another step forward, they’ve got to be able to stretch out a little more.

But, I do believe that will happen eventually. And, when it does, it will be combined with the grit this team is developing in the trenches right now along with a lot of offensive talent that will be maturing at the same time. Given that we’ve already seen what this team can do defensively, the future is looking brighter every day…assuming we can get one or two more innings from our starters between now and next season.
Scott Boden
11 months ago

I’m one of those who feels the long term plan is working and generally is working as DM projected. If I remember correctly his goal is 2013. Many of the fans goal is 2012. I’m guess the pitching is slightly behind his projection as I would think he thought Lamb and Montgomery was going to be up sometime this year. Montgomery suddenly struggled and Lamb got hurt. I feel they should stay with the plan. This organization was very very bad. DM has made it where we are actually debating contention later this year. It has taken patients and a great plan, imo, to get us here. Nice job DM.

People keep talking about the Royals making a decision on Dyson and Cain. It definitely could come down to these two because of options but they could also trade or release Miers off the club.
Scott Boden
11 months ago

I forgot to add the marketing add is pretty good in my opinion. It’s our time can mean two things and I think most people don’t think of the 2nd option. I guess that could mean it isn’t as good as I think….

“It’s our time” can mean for contention or it can mean because we have the All Star Game back. Remember in the commercials they are primarily showing All Star game memories.
Terry Payne
11 months ago

The Tigers are heating up. If the Royals want to stay close, they’ll have to have as many fresh arms and legs as possible for the dog days ahead.

And everybody can use a mental break. Plus, it helps to just let the mind and body do nothing for a while. If nothing else, it gives the spirit a lift.
Aaron Bailey
11 months ago

Looking at Joe Saunders’ stats, he’s not that much better than anyone else we have, only once going longer than 6 and 1/3 innings. He has a good ERA, but he’s also pitching in the NL. Look at what not having to face a DH for a week has made the Royals rotation look like: decent. I’m hoping they keep in contention, but if trades are made, I’d much rather bring in another prospect pitcher to team up with Odorizzi for the next 6 years than an average pitcher for 3 months.

As far as Franceour goes, his numbers are definitely down, but so are almost everyone else’s. And I think his biggest value comes in his leadership prowess. Moore and Yost know he’s a big part of Moose and Hosmer’s development. If Myers comes up after the All-Star break sometime, I think it will be as a centerfielder. They’ll want Frenchy to mentor him too, and then maybe Cain can be used as a trade chip (if healthy). Interestingly, Myers himself said in an interview that he’s not hitting real well right now in AAA, power yes, but overall he’s working on some adjustments.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“but the SPing is still not good.”

“SP” is perhaps an old school concept. Overall pitching has much more to do with a game. The Royals’ team ERA of 4.00 ranks 13th in MLB tied with the Phillies and White Sox and .01 ahead of the Braves and ahead of the Tigers, Indians, and Twins. Pitching is not a problem for the Royals, scoring runs is. They rank 25th in runs scored at 3.88/gm.

“That is not a “fad””

It is a fad to the extent that it is blogger and talk show driven and is based on treating SP as somehow more special than pitching in general. A starter’s runs don’t count for more than a reliever’s and the Royals’ current method of putting together a total staff is relatively cheap and efficient, so is brilliant for a small market team, exploiting a market inefficiency.

“(Not buying the injury “fad” that you keep mentioning about Hoch).”

Probably didn’t notice he was hurt in ‘10, either. If you don’t buy that fad, feel free to always take the under on Hoch for the rest of the year. Correct analysis of health is an advantage for the wise investor. I think he produces over 50% quality starts from here on out. We all heard the same things last year about Hoch, “Regression to the mean!”

“I hope GMDM makes a solid run at at least one frontline SP that has a history of pitching 200 innings b/c that is what this team needs the most!!”

Milwaukee would probably take Escobar and Odorizzi for Greinke or Detroit might take Hosmer, Moose, and Gordon for Verlander. In the off-season there will be a glut of SP’s, so a low #1 or high #2 might be available for under $15 million on a four or five year contract. Aces will be much more expensive.
Curtis Ruder
11 months ago

I am as psyched as everyone to be within 4.5 games of the division lead. This is the closest we have been to the division lead this late into the season since 2003. And I am excited that .500 is a real goal again; I didn’t think we would sniff it after 3-14.

But there are also some important caveats to remember. We are in fourth place. Being 4.5 games out in second place is a very different animal than being 4.5 out in second place. And because the division is poor, one of the wild card slots isn’t really an option.

For all the excitement, only Minnesota and Seattle have worse records in the AL than the Royals. Only the Twins and the Indians (!!) have a worse run differential than the Royals so far.

Detroit isn’t trading Verlander. That is crazy talk. They certainly wouldn’t be trading for a corner infielder when they have Fielder and Cabrera. Detroit is more in the race than we are. I could see Milwaukee moving Greinke or Marcum. But unless you could get contract extensions, it wouldn’t be worth it. We are on the fringe of the race, not the heart of it, and we are still developing for the future. If Perez and Paulino return, and we find ourselves in second place a couple of games out in another 3-4 weeks, then that is one thing. Frankly, I think we are still sellers rather than buyers come the trade deadline.
Jay Hall
11 months ago

If the Royals want to improve their offense, the help is on the way.

CF - Lorenzo Cain should be an improvement over Dyson. Dyson hasn’t been a complete trainwreck, but he does get overwhelmed at times at the plate. His bat doesn’t have enough pop (.295 SLG) or contact (.253 BA) to keep him in there every day. The one thing that has kept him from being a disaster is his .324 OBP, which helps him use his speed. He’s probably better suited as a fourth OF/PR, though he’s passable for a few weeks, but not longterm.

C - Salvador Perez can’t be worse than the current duo. Pena is turning in another decent season for a backup, but he’s not a starter. Quintero started hot (.286/.366/.429 in April) then cooled considerably (.219/.219/.359 in May) before freezing (.194/.194/.222 in June) this month. Pena has been almost as bad this month (.194/.235/.258) but had a stronger May (.261/.261/.348) and has to be the choice once Perez is ready. Quintero is just too bad offensively to put him in the lineup 2 or 3 times a week especially considering both Quintero and Pena have leveled off to right around their career numbers at this point.

2B - If it’s not Getz, there’s really no excuse for putting a guy with a .290 OBP out there every day. Alex Gordon’s BA is .001 higher than Betancourt’s, but Gordon’s OBP is .067 higher. That’s no small difference. Betancourt makes too many outs to be an every day player. Falu or Gio should be getting the time to see if they can improve on Yuni’s career OBP of .292.

1B - Here’s hoping Hosmer has finally figured it out this year. His lines (.188/.274/.388 in April, .218/.262/.317 in May, .259/.343/.431 in June) are steadily improving and that will be a big boost if he gets to a .275/.355/.455 line in July.

RF - Either Francoeur needs to hit for more power (only 5 HR, only 14 doubles) or he needs to give way to Wil Myers after the ASG. His OBP and BA are right around his career marks. The only thing that keeps his OBP from Betancourt levels is a sizzling May (.321/.368/.566). His April (.229/.273/.301) and June (.239/.257/.254) are too low for an every day corner outfielder. If he starts hitting for more pop it’s worth it to keep him in there every day. If not, those numbers are far too low.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“They certainly wouldn’t be trading for a corner infielder when they have Fielder and Cabrera.”

Fielder, Cabrera, and infielder in the same sentence is an oxymoron, but I was just suggesting the level of value it would take to get a major ace.

“RF - Either Francoeur needs to hit for more power (only 5 HR, only 14 doubles) or he needs to give way to Wil Myers after the ASG.”

Heard this same story last year, except that the names were Getz and Giavotella. The year before Kila was the savior. It’s a big step from AAA to the majors. Ask Hosmer, Moose, Gio, Alex, and Kila. Hopes springs eternal in the minors. I don’t expect Myers til September, barring injury, and think we may see David Lough up before Myers.

“Falu or Gio should be getting the time to see if they can improve on Yuni’s career OBP of .292.’

Careers don’t take the field. I would have Falu, who never walks, starting at 2nd because of defense til Getz gets back and would only use Yuni when Escobar needs a break, but there is a risk there because Yuni gets some big hits and his .465 SLG has some weight, 5 pts behind the Moose. I wouldn’t even have Gio in a conversation about the major league team and expect him to be traded.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

I am fine with them leaving Myers in AAA until next year because I don’t see a realistic chance for us to contend this year, and after watching Francoeur in CF and Hosmer in RF in Pittsburgh, I’m convinced that playing OF is harder than I’d thought, so we should give Myers time to learn it.

Having said that, there should be no reason to minimize what Myers is doing offensively this year. He has the 5th highest OPS in the Pacific Coast League this year. By wOBA, which measures overall hitting more accurately than OPS, Myers is 35% better than league average, almost exactly what Hosmer was doing before his callup last year.

Myers has been a far better hitter than Falu or Giavotella or anybody else at Omaha.
Scott Boden
11 months ago

Why doesn’t anyone talk about the royals trading or release Maiers instead of making a choice on Dyson and Cain. I know they both have options but while Dyson doesn’t add the power of Maiers he does add speed. Maiers doesn’t play much. I would think the speed for pinch running and defense would put Dyson ahead of Maiers for the backup outfielder spot. Thoughts?
Greg Tatro
11 months ago

Yuni is who he is…a guy who doesn’t get on base a lot and defensively is probably average at best. But for a 2B he has decent power numbers and can make the big hit. I’d say he’s a push at 2B which is better than Gio.

I’m also of the belief that there won’t be much to offer as far as SP around the trade deadline and that Perez returning alone would be a bigger upgrade. Dempster is injured and the Cubs would probably want a lot anyway. Saunders is average and I would look at his stats when he was with the Angels as that would be a more accurate representation of what he would bring to the AL. I even heard Guthrie from the Rockies might be another on the market but he’s been inconstant at best.

Why not go with Odorizzi? The Rays have thrown young pitchers into the fire during playoff runs and had success. It’s not always certain failure to bring up young arm during September.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“Myers is 35% better than league average, almost exactly what Hosmer was doing before his callup last year.”

Gives a good idea of the chasm between Omaha and Kansas City.

“Myers has been a far better hitter than Falu or Giavotella or anybody else at Omaha.”

But Falu and Giavotella are good examples of how cheap offense is in the PCL. I think Myers will do fine in KC down the road, but doubt that he’ll hit the ground with so much offense that he carries the team to the championship. Hosmer’s wOBA dropped from about .450 combined AA and AAA to his major league career .326 on 832 ABs.

“Thoughts?”

Maiers is the emergency catcher and everybody loves him. Beyond that, don’t know. When Cain comes back I would keep Dyson as UOF and pinch runner.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“Why not go with Odorizzi?”

Greg, I think they will after the ASB. He’s been pretty consistent in Omaha, actually looked more ready than Danny Duffy did last year when called up, so I expect him soon. Like Myers, I think there may be a roster spot issue with a quick call-up, but expect some moves to be made around the deadline to free some space. Too bad Mike Montgomery hasn’t seized the chance his raw talent has given him, but not all prospects make it.
Jay Hall
11 months ago

Jim, you are correct in that careers don’t take the field. However, Betancourt’s career slash line is .268/.292/.393. His line this year is .257/.290/.465. He’s performing almost exactly in line with his career numbers, with some more power, although that could be due to a small sample size given the games he has missed due to injury.

Also, Betancourt is 30 and very few players have their best season’s after the age of 30, so it’s unlikely that he will be significantly better than he has been to this point in his career. After 3500 career at bats, he is what he is. And a .290 season OBP is too low to be batting in the top 6 spots in the lineup. Hosmer is hitting 40 points lower and has almost as strong an OBP. And Betancourt isn’t exactly a savant with the glove, so playing his below average bat to get his below average defense into the field every day is a bit odd.

My point stands on Francoeur. Right now, his BA and OBP are separated by only 40 points. The league averages for those categories are .253 and .319, or an average separation of 66 points. If he doesn’t hit for more power, the fact that he walks at a below league average rate becomes an issue. If he does hit for power, he mitigates that issue. Otherwise, he is a candidate for replacement to see if more production is possible.

I look at the numbers and the numbers say that if Francoeur’s power numbers don’t go up and get him on pace for a 40 double, 20 HR season, it’s unlikely he will be able to be anything other than below average at the plate, and since his value in the outfield is tied only to his arm and not his range (and Wil Myers has a good arm, too) his bat needs to produce at least at ML average and that means his OBP needs to go up 15 points. Since he doesn’t walk, the only way to get that improvement is to get his BA up like he did in May when he hit .321 with a .368 OBP. He doesn’t have to hit quite that well (something in the .285 range will do), but the point remains. Francoeur without power is a below average bat, and certainly doesn’t belong in the middle of the lineup.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“so playing his below average bat to get his below average defense into the field every day is a bit odd.”

Likely a result of two unexpected events, Getz being injured and Giavotella looking like a bust. Neither were expected when Yuni was signed.

“My point stands on Francoeur.”

And a perfectly valid point, even if I’ve heard it daily since Frenchy signed before last season. He’s under performing. That then gets us into prophecy and finance to weigh how to deal with that and that is something numbers aren’t good at. Is Myers Sal Perez or is he Johnny Giavotella. Only one way to find out and that has long-term financial implications.

If they try Myers at 1st base for a couple of games will you make the same case on Hosmer with his OBP below Yuni’s? Hosmer does have options and the pie-slice defensive stats say he’s almost as bad as Escobar.
Thayne Griffin
11 months ago

I agree with trading Gio and Maier. Keep Dyson as the 4th OF. Great speed that can be lethal as a PR (as we saw at the beginning of last season). I think Falu can make it as our UIF which would make Betancourt a goner if our other middle infielders in AA and AAA would develop a lot before the end of the season (Abreu and Colon perhaps?).

Brendan, after watching Downs for Houston also try the OF it looks much harder than it seems to be and would be ok with waiting on Myers.

I also agree with much of what Jay said about Cain, Perez, and 2B. I feel like Frenchy would be a player well suited to somewhere with shorter LF and RF fences (more power, better defense - arm is then more threatening and his range isn’t as bad) - I don’t know that he has the power for Kauffman, but right now I value his leadership with this team (but then again, not many people do).
Thayne Griffin
11 months ago

“pie-slice defensive stats say he’s almost as bad as Escobar”

In that case, I think Esky is the victim of getting to many balls others couldn’t even dream of reaching (Yuni, Jeter now, et al) that he can’t turn into outs because he’s so far in the hole or had to lay out and can’t get up fast enough to get a speedy runner even with his arm cannon.
Thayne Griffin
11 months ago

Did we really just trade SOS for cash? We couldn’t even get a non-prospect AA guy or something? At least we would have a chance of getting a diamond in the rough (even if extremely unlikely there would at least be a chance)
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

SOS gave up a million runs last night, again. Most important gain is the roster spot, suggests something is about to happen.

If Super Two is really a non-issue at this time, we could see JaKKKe or Myers sooner rather than later. My money’s on JaKKKe but Myers is said to be on the Moose/Hoz track, comes up when ready, and being 4.5 games back can change plans for a team averaging 3.88 rpg. A lot depends on Cain’s rehab, but if he gets healthy, Dyson could go back down and Frenchy and Alex platoon in left or at DH when Billy’s on 1st.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Yes, Tom, mirage was a poor word choice.
William Wolfe
11 months ago

Jim - how are numbers not good at dealing with Frenchy underperforming? I’m confused by your comment.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Jim, I disagree with your choice to look at the overall pitching staff numbers as an indication of improvement. Those numbers have mostly landed where they are b/c of the outstanding ‘pen. That WILL NOT continue as long as the “SPers” can’t get into the 7th inning with any consistency. That is their job. To get there with consistency so that we don’t need to use 15 pitchers on a 25 man roster and leave our bench exposed and handcuff the managers, coaches and players with lack of depth as a result of “SPers” that can’t get into the 7th with consistency. That is not a “blogger” or “talk radio host” “fad” or thought process. That is how championship teams are built. The more innings your starters can eat, the less taxing it is on your ‘pen and therefore the less roster spaces are needed on pitching.

I agree with you about the fact that #2 starters will be had for about $15 mil/season. Why not sign one to a 4-5yr deal. If we get 2-3 solid yrs on the front end of the deal then it is worth it. I know I would take Meche back right now for the first 2.5 yrs of his deal’s production. Maybe not this year but starting next year. I am overall ok with GMDM’s gameplan for the SPers this season, he needed to see what he had in Paulino, Hochevar, Mazzaro, Adcock and whomever else they bring up from the minors.
Jay Hall
11 months ago

Jim,

I wouldn’t because Hosmer and Yuni are in two different places development wise.

Hosmer is a developing player. Still less than 1000 ML ABs. Only 22 years old. He’s a young player just on the front end of the aging and development curve. Yuni is on the backside of that development curve at 30. He’s played in the majors since before Hosmer was out of high school and proven himself to be a below average hitter and below average gloveman. That’s why I advocate for another 2B. Betancourt does not have any plus skills.

You call Gio a bust after less than 250 career ML ABs with .247/.273/.376. That’s less than half a season for a guy whose minor league track record suggest he could be above average with the bat to outweigh his below average glove. That’s pretty quick to make that judgement after less than half a season’s worth of playing time. If Gio had a long running trend (say 3500+ ABs worth of .268/.292/.393 production) then I’d say he’s a bust. But 250 ABs at the beginning of a career doesn’t make a guy a bust.

Through the first 207 ABs of his pro career Mike Moustakas hit .198/.253/.251. At the 250 AB mark Moustakas’ line was .232/.283/.292. Moose had to get hot just to get his BA into the .230s! I guess he was a bust and the Royals should have sent him back down to the minors or traded him. Oh, wait. No, they shouldn’t have. That would have been silly and premature.

Chris Getz’ line at 250 career ABs - .264/.322/.376

Betancourt’s line at 228 career ABs - .256/.296/.370 (and he had played previously as a pro in Cuba).

Roughly similar to Gio’s first 247 career ABs. And neither Betancourt nor Getz had anything close to Gio’s line in the minors.

Like I said, the Royals have mishandled Gio’s development at the ML level and his best shot now may be via trade, but I can’t call a guy a bust 250 ABs into his ML career. Especially not a guy that has a .307/.378/.441 career minor league line and a .335/.395/.482 line at AAA.
William Wolfe
11 months ago

Darral—couldn’t agree more. Starters are more valuable because they pitch more innings. Period. Even our crappy staff. They must be better or else the team suffers. That’s been true forever, or else we would have some sort of system now where everyone pitches one inning and exits, you’d only need 10 pitchers and have plenty of bench spots. No blogger fad there.
William Wolfe
11 months ago

More fun with Gio being a bust. At George Brett’s 50th game of his first full season, his OBP was .304 and his slugging percentage was .321. Trade him, he’s a bust.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“Jim - how are numbers not good at dealing with Frenchy underperforming? I’m confused by your comment.”

That was unclear. SABR numbers won’t do much good for judging financial impact or even for predicting Wil Myers on field impact if he’s brought up and sets up a domino effect of later moves.

“Jim, I disagree with your choice to look at the overall pitching staff numbers as an indication of improvement. Those numbers have mostly landed where they are b/c of the outstanding ‘pen.”

A reasonable view, but I see the outstanding ‘pen as a result of management’s plan to cheaply compensate for what was widely assumed to be no more than an average rotation even before Paulino, Sanchez, Duffy, and Paulino again went on the DL along with Everett Teaford, the swing man.

“That is how championship teams are built.”

And that is the hope, but the current reality is that Lamb and Duffy had TJ surgery and Montgomery is under performing. JaKKKe Odorizzi may be up soon, the trade of SOS opens a roster spot. Given the reality, the choice becomes whether to get production from what is about a 12 man bullpen or to trade Wil Myers, suggested in the off-season, for a year or two of a classical SP at big money.
Thayne Griffin
11 months ago

My reasoning for trading Gio isn’t his bat, it’s his lack of glove.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

From what we’ve seen of his bat, it doesn’t work well against major-league pitching. He faced the same pitching last fall that Sal Perez did and the same pitching that Irving Falu did this year. Along with a challenged glove that is a recipe for AAA. Too bad, I like the kid’s hustle and heart, but hitting like Hosmer and fielding like Yuni just doesn’t make it.
Tom Roesler
11 months ago

Wow…there are very few times on this blog that I think someone is staggeringly off, but to see someone imply that Escobar is a “poor” fielding short stop is flat out hilarious.

Has he made errors on balls that he had no business messing up? Sure. Can’t deny that. But, if you have to use something like a “pie slice” chart rather than your own eyeballs to tell you if someone is a good fielder or not is amazingly bad.

And, to imply that Hosmer, who is unquestionably the best fielding first baseman we’ve had in 20 years, is sub-par based on a “pie slice” chart is almost as bad.

Thank you for good laugh in the late afternoon!
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“Thank you for good laugh in the late afternoon!”

I get a good laugh from fangraphs’ defensive ratings myself. But some folks prefer numbers to eyeballs. that’s what makes the site interesting.
William Wolfe
11 months ago

From what we’ve seen of his bat?? George Brett did nothing for 50 games. Small sample size anyone? Sal Perez could just as easily have been lucky during his small sample size last year and will come down to earth. Irving Falu has 43 at bats…43. You can’t judge anything on 43 at bats. Billy Butler goes through slumps that last 43 at bats. Buddy Biancalana was probably hot for 43 at bats once. It’s meaningless! Under this logic, going 18-11 that one April meant something also, when in fact Joe Poz did a study and practically EVERY team has an 18-11 stretch at some point in a season. I think we need to think twice about writing Gio off. Especially given the crappy alternatives.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“I think we need to think twice about writing Gio off. Especially given the crappy alternatives.”

The alternatives are Getz, Falu, Tony Seratelli, maybe Tony Abreu, and Christian Colon. Gio has a small window to make an impression.

“But can all agree that, for the health of the bullpen and the betterment of the team as a whole, it’d be good to upgrade what we currently have?”

Upgrades are always good. You mentioned Joe Saunders, a 4+ pitcher in the AL, what will you trade for three months of him? He’s cheap, on a $6 mil contract, but an FA after the season.

“And there are pitchers out there who would be available without breaking the talent OR money banks for the Royals”

Who and for how much. The devil is always in the details when it gets down to specifics.

“But if the numbers Myers are putting up in Omaha must be ignored (which is silly, btw)”

I compared them to Hosmer’s. It’s a big step from Omaha to KC. You should remember that from chanting for Giavotella last year and Kila the year before. MLE is an average and pretty much useless for predicting production of an individual player.

“Why not get some benefit NOW out of making an acquisition who can help this year?”

Again, who and for how much? Milwaukee would probably take Escobar and Odorizzi for Zack. Tampa might take JaKKKe, Myers, and Montgomery for James Shields. Would you make those deals?
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

I have my own major problems with UZR, but I’ll at least try to make sense of the numbers rather than blithely dismissing them. One thing to do is to look at other advanced statistics, but that won’t work for people who write off all zone-classified defensive stats. So let’s look at Escobar using the old-fahsioned pre-pie-slice data:

2011: Escobar fielding percentage: .980 (15 errors in 745 chances) vs. .972 league average for SS. Escobar range factor: 4.74 (balls handled per 9 IP) vs. 4.33 league average for SS.

2012: Escobar fielding percentage: .973 (8 errors in 291 chances) vs. .978 league average for SS. Escobar range factor: 4.35 vs. 4.52 league average for SS

I love Alcides Escobar, but you don’t have to look at the advanced stats to think his defense has dropped off this year. Far be it for me to deny anyone their afternoon laugh, but if your eye hadn’t caught that he’s handling fewer balls than last year, you might want to consider supplementing your sources of information.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“you don’t have to look at the advanced stats to think his defense has dropped off this year.”

When “error” was first offered as an advanced statistic a century ago it was suggested that “exceptional play” should also be recognized because better players reach more balls, so have more chances to make errors. I can only think of one system that recognizes the exceptional play.
Curtis Ruder
11 months ago

Well, Jim, you must have a pretty limited imagination if you can only think of one. In addition to Polk, there is range factor, zone rating and fielding runs off the top of my head. They have the distinction of not being as subjective as Polk, but as I see it, if you are making a couple dozen more outs than average on defense, then you are making a couple dozen exceptional plays.

All that being said, I am not worried about Esky’s defense yet. Sample sizes need to be much higher for the defensive metrics. Forty percent of a season just isn’t enough to tell us much.

As to the great starting pitcher debate, a lot depends on how the team sees the market now compared to the market this off-season. As I look at the standings, it is amazing how few teams are pretty clearly out of the running. Unless things sort out in a big way in the next couple of weeks, it is going to be a sellers market for those teams who are out of it but have pitchers that contenders want. Given that we remain on the fringe of the race, I would not be upset if we passed during the year and tried to sign a pitcher or two this winter.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“Well, Jim, you must have a pretty limited imagination if you can only think of one.”

None of the three you offer recognizes “exceptional play”. I like RF, but last year when I used it to suggest that Giavotella was losing about 2.5 WAR/150 to Getz based on RF, I was disparaged by a few bloggers, so let it drop. Getz’ RF was also down from last year, even though the eyeballs tell me he has better range than last year. I’m hoping the FieldFX stuff will give us some better numbers, but we may never see them.

“I would not be upset if we passed during the year and tried to sign a pitcher or two this winter.”

Noticed that Marcum hit the DL. He seems interesting, local boy, pretty good history, watched him on Game Day his last start and reminded me of a RH Bruce Chen, 88mph FB, 87 mph change. Probably no reason to get anyone now due to questions about the offense, but next year if the right two or three guys could reasonably get us to 93 wins? David Glass is old enough he might be ready for a legacy play, but I don’t expect him to do a 10 year/$250 mil contract with anyone.

Did a little figgerin’ the other day and with Soria, Sanchez, Broxton, and Yuni gone and with Duffy’s injury precluding an extension and assuming an $80 mil payroll, the Royals could have as much as $35 million available for FA’s next year to take a serious run for the championship. Just a matter of whether Zack or whoever would be willing to take a one-year contract, I don’t see the FO signing on for 5 years, $125 million on much of anyone. A lot depends on whether our stud bats decide to show that they are young stars or just plodders, but a resurgent offense, 82-85 wins, a healthy Paulino and Odorizzi showing he’s for real the second half would convince Dayton Moore to buy the couple of pieces he needs, assuming Perez and Cain show they are solid.

“Given that we remain on the fringe of the race,”

All teams in the Central are on the fringe of the race. If Hosmer and Frenchy heat up and Perez and Cain play to expectations, the Royals could run away with it.

Always good hearing from you, Curtis.
Tom Roesler
11 months ago

Here’s something Jim or anyone else can quote me on. You can take your stats; I’ll take Escobar and Hoch, and my defense will beat yours every time.

I think the stats play a very important part in evaluating baseball, but when it gets in the way of the obvious, there is a problem.

Two of our best defensive infielders in a couple decades and some let a silly pie slice stat lead you to believe they’re not all that special??? Wow. Just wow.

And with that note…it’s time for bed. Can’t wait for tomorrow when Escobar and Hoch make some nice plays and gasp prove the pie slice wrong. :)
Tom Roesler
11 months ago

LOL…man, I must be tired…did I say Hoch? I meant Hos. The combined rage (sarcasm) and sleeplessness (real) must be getting to me.

Night all. Zzzzz
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“Here’s something Jim or anyone else can quote me on. You can take your stats;”

Tom, I agree with you. I refer to UZR and DRS as “pie-slice” systems in a disparaging manner. Maybe I’m just tired, also, folks usually recognize that I pretty consistently favor educated eyeballs over so-called advanced stats. I think Polk is actually the best defensive rating system, which makes me the poster child for Old School among the cool kids.

Sweet dreams.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

No top-flight pitcher is going to take a one-year contract, and, even if they would, extremely overpaying for one year doesn’t make sense for 2013.

I wonder what techniques the eye-test people use to evaluate the Royals players against other players in the league. Watching 15 MLB games a day? Using the 6 games the Royals play against most AL teams to evaluate the opposing players? How does Escobar compare to Brendan Ryan or Hosmer compare to Albert Pujols?
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Brendan,

You just compared Escobar’s FULL SEASON stats from last year to his stat’s through 40% of the games so far this year. Not really fair. He is on pace for 727 chances this season. Not really a dropoff from 745 is it?!?!

There is WAY more to “chances” when thinking about defense. It is defensive positioning. Also, the Royals, with much chagrin, have used ALOT more extreme shifts and put Escobar up the middle this season. I can think of at least 5 hits that have been shot right through where he would have normally been positioned. But due to coaches defensive positioning he couldn’t get there, thus effecting both his zone rating AND his chances.

Also, the Royals lead the league in 1 or 2 run games, which typically means more situational defense, IE covering 3rd on a bunt attempt by the opposing team to try and move runners over. When your team is behind by more than 2 runs you tend to play more conservatively. Which means more traditional defensive positioning.

Also, I haven’t seen Escobar go into short left field and into the Bermuda Triangle as much this year as last year, probably due to the increased confidence in Moustakas’ and Gordon’s gloves he doesn’t feel the need to take charge out there and is trusting his teammates. Which is a good thing.

Your DZR numbers don’t being to tell the whole story.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Brendan,

Edwin Jackson took a 1 yr deal. Look what he is doing this year. It isn’t really a surprise that he is pitching like this either. Pretty much all of the supposed experts predicted this sort of breakout year.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Darral -

I can’t quite follow your math, but you’re right that Escobar is on pace to end up with right around 700 chances this year.

I think that’s a pretty meaningful reduction from 745, but I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. As you said, it might just be positioning (although shifting positions seems like it ought to let our best infielder get to more balls, not fewer) or it might be that the Royals pitchers are just allowing fewer ground balls or balls in play this year.

In fact, Escobar’s revised zone rating (putouts divided by balls in zone) is stable, suggesting he’s just getting fewer balls hit to him (this adjustment for how many balls are hit to you in one of many reasons the pie-slice stats are better than range factor).

The errors do concern me, and I, like you, haven’t noticed him going beyond normal SS range as much this year. He may have increased confidence in the defender to his right, but he should have decreased confidence in the defender to his left.

I don’t think partial season numbers are any more indicative of Escobar’s ability than partial season batting statistics are indicative of Falu’s or Gio’s ability. I’m not worried that Escobar is permanently impaired.

However, Escobar is getting to fewer balls and mishandling more of them this year. That’s why all of his metrics (UZR, TZ, DRS, RF, Fld%) are down. Maybe it’s because the Royals are mispositioning him. Maybe it’s because of situational shifts (although I can’t remember any hits through his zone on a bunt attempt with a runner on 2nd). Maybe it’s pitching. So maybe it’s not his fault at all. But it’s still happening. And ridiculing the numbers without trying to understand them (not that this is what you’re doing) is self-defeating.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

If we look at the traditional metrics, Edwin Jackson is having a great season — by far the best of his career, and it would have been nice if he’d been having it for the Royals.

I don’t know anyone who predicted a 3.02 ERA from Jackson. I wonder if they also predicted a .233 batting average on balls in play (that’s Hosmerian luck, although in Hosmer’s case, it’s bad luck and in Jackson’s case, it’s good luck). All I can find are a bunch of projection systems saying 3.75 to 4.00.

Jackson felt his offers weren’t generous enough this offseason, so he turned down a three-year offer in order to play on a one-year $11M contract. The fact that it only took $11M to sign him for one year indicates that the GMs in the league think he’s a roughly league-average pitcher, which is what he’s been over his career. I don’t think his case is going to be very instructive when it comes to figuring out what top-flight pitchers will do.
Jay Hall
11 months ago

Defensive metrics have admitted that data on defense takes a while to normalize. You usually need about 3 years worth to really get a good feel. The thing hurting Escobar most right now is his errors. He is on pace to commit about 21 or 22 errors this year, which is way too many. I don’t think he will actually commit that many, though he may be at 17 or 18. That, combined with his fewer chances is dragging his defense down significantly.

Part of that is also due to the fact that Moose’s improved range is allowing the Royals to play Escobar closer to 2nd base to make up for Betancourt’s statuesque defense. That’s just a guess, but it seems like Escobar isn’t going into the hole nearly as much, and that he is positioned more up the middle this year a lot more often.

I don’t think we have nearly enough data to say that for sure, though.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Brendan,

The math I used was simple. The Royals have played 40% of their games. Lets assume he keeps up the current pace. 291x2=582. That gets you to 80% games played. For the last 20% of games played you take 291/2=145.5. Then take 582+145=727. Like I said, if he follows his current rate of 291 thru 40% of the season. I would agree that a drop from 745 to 700 would be a big drop, but he isn’t dropping from 745 to 700. He is PROJECTED to drop from 745 to 727. Hardly a concerning drop given the factors I laid out in my previous post.

As far as the errors are concerned. Not concerned at all. Ozzie Smith AVERAGED 15 errors a season over his 19 yr career. That is AVERAGED. Which means he had PLENTY of seasons,9 actually, in which he had at least that many errors or more. And that is for the guy that many believe to be the gold standard for SS play and that is while averaging 145 games played/season. So if 15 errors/season, combined with many WOW plays, makes Ozzie a HOFer, then the 20 errors that Escobar is ON PACE to make and the many WOW plays that Escobar makes are pretty damn good!! Mind you the 20 errors is just a projection too. He may end up less than that, maybe even at about 15. Which puts him on par with a HOF SS, at least for this season. I am not wasting any more time arguing Escobar’s defensive abilities b/c it is stupid. BTW, I understand the numbers very well. Just don’t think they are the best judge of a players defensive capabilities but just a “piece of the pie” when evalulating that aspect of a players game.

Actually at $11mil/yr that suggests that they think he is a pretty good pitcher, probably at least #3 with potential to perform like a #2. Like it or not, the going rate for a #4 or #5 starter in FA is probably between $2-$4 mil.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Darral -

I think rounding is causing the discrepancy. The Royals have played 67 of their 162 games, a bit more than 40%. If we doubled the number of games so far and added half again, we’d be projecting a 168-game season. To extrapolate from the current stats, it’s just 162/67*stat.

(162/67)*291 = 703.6 chances

And I think you do an excellent job of illustrating why using errors as the sole (or even primary) way to judge a player is a bad idea. I prefer using a broad range of metrics, with heavier weight given to those based on zone ratings, and observations. The more that the various metrics agree with one another, and the larger the sample that they’re based on, the more confidence I have in them.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Brendan,

Escobar has played in 65 of the Royals 67 games, which comes out to 40%. That is where the number comes from. You are splitting hairs. You don’t think Escobar is the defensive player that he obviously is. We will just agree to disagree on this subject. However, I don’t think you should penalize Escobar for playing in 40% of the Royals games instead of 41%.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“No top-flight pitcher is going to take a one-year contract”

Then screw them. Last thing the Royals need is a long term, high dollar contract just to pick up, maybe, a couple of wins a year over an in-house pitcher. Pitchers break down. We’ve seen that with both Meche and Soria, just to use our two highest paid examples.

“I wonder what techniques the eye-test people use to evaluate the Royals players against other players in the league.”

No need to worry much about other players, as this is baseball, not fantasy. Comparisons only need to be among system players and of possible trade and FA acquisitions. It doesn’t matter much if Hosmer is the worst 1st baseman in baseball, just that he is better than Big Bill Butler and Clint Robinson. When going outside the system, scouts and video take care of the eyeballs, plus the Royal Nerds have stats the rest of us will never see so the two approaches can compare and work together, as they do.

“That’s just a guess, but it seems like Escobar isn’t going into the hole nearly as much, and that he is positioned more up the middle this year a lot more often.”

The core weakness of pie-slice compared to zero-point defensive systems, the shift.

“suggesting he’s just getting fewer balls hit to him”

Or suggesting that the so-called advanced evaluation systems don’t know where he is standing when the play starts. On top of the shifts, there are variables such as GB% and K% that might enter into it. Royals pitchers have more Ks this year.

Good thread, guys.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Darral -

I think he’s a very good defensive player who’s having a bit of an off year so far by his standards, but we can agree to disagree on that if you want.

We can’t disagree on math though. If Escobar has already missed two games, he can’t play all 162 this year. He started 156 and played in 158 last year. If we project his pace to 156 games total, he’ll get 698 chances this year; if we use 158 games, he’ll get 707 chances this year. If we project using his total innings from last year, we get 689 chances. Regardless, I think it’s safe to say he’s on pace for about 700 chances.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Jim -

Perhaps all this debate results from confusion over what various metrics aim to do.

UZR (and DRS and Total Zone) isn’t attempting to compare Hosmer to Escobar or to other first basemen in the Royals system. It’s solely attempting to compare him to other first basemen in the league. If that’s not a comparison that’s of interest to the eye-test people, then there’s no reason to quarrel.

Some people can use the eye test to compare Hosmer to Robinson or Escobar to Falu. Others can use metrics to compare Hosmer to Pujols and Escobar to Ryan. And the two groups can merrily co-exist.
William Wolfe
11 months ago

Jim—you describe the core weakness of pie slice systems as not adjusting for shifts etc. When in fact they do. There is a stringer that observes whether the shift makes a difference, etc. I would suggest you read the UZR primer on Fangraphs site and get educated before trashing a system that offers tons more help than errors.
Thayne Griffin
11 months ago

Oh no. Paulino likely set for Tommy John :’(. Guess Vin Mazzaro will need to carry us.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Brendon,

You are right about the math. However, I do think you are splitting hairs about the % of games played. There is a 1.2% difference between the two. I would say that projections, which we are doing, is able to be swung 1-5% one way or another. I believe that he will come close to my projection of 727 chances than your projection of 700 chances.

Jim,

I disagree. The Royals organization needs to not only compare their talent at each position but also compare their top players at each position to the rest of the leagues top players at each position.
William Wolfe
11 months ago

Right on Darral—the quote was “Comparisons only need to be among system players and of possible trade and FA acquisitions”. Um, isn’t every MLB and MiLB player a potential trade acquisition? Looking at your own organization in a vacuum is so shortsighted it’s not even funny. That’s how David Howard stays on your roster. Then one day you wake up and say, “hang on a second, I could sign this minor league free agent who will outproduce David Howard and pay him the minimum, why was I comparing David Howard to Jed Hanson all this time?”
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

William, this from the primer:

“Left-handed and right-handed batters are treated separately since infielders and outfielders are positioned differently for each. Infield ground balls are also handled separately for two categories of batters: Above-average speed and below-average speed. All batters are put into one or the other category, using a Bill James type of speed score. It is assumed that infielders must play a little shallower and are more hurried in general with a faster runner at the plate. Also, the data includes whether a shift (a generic one, in the opinion of the “stringer” – the person recording the data) was on, and whether the shift likely affected the play at all. If it did – again, according to the “stringer”- then the play is ignored.”

It’s not zero-based, it’s generic at best. That is why FieldFX was invented and the huge investment made for it, but UZR is improving.

“The real question is, “is OUR best at X position better than his counterpart on the teams against which we compete?””

Only in fantasy. Only 1st basemen that matter in baseball are ones available to a team.

“I disagree. The Royals organization needs to not only compare their talent at each position but also compare their top players at each position to the rest of the leagues top players at each position.”

And if Pujols and Fielder are better overall players than Hosmer, what does that mean? Neither are available. Only thing Royals need to know is that Hosmer is a better fielder than Billy or Clint, which the average fan in the stands can see. If an FA 1st baseman becomes available, then he can be compared to Hosmer on skills, age, price, and signability. When the draft rolls around and another Hosmer appears, then they’ll look at him and try to guess who will be better in four years, based on the above factors.

“Um, isn’t every MLB and MiLB player a potential trade acquisition?”

Realistically, no.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Jim -

I’m having a hard time squaring your mocking of UZR with your belief that you don’t need to compare players to their counterparts on other MLB teams.

If you think that it’s unnecessary and you don’t do your own comparison, what makes you say that UZR (or DRS or Total Zone or …) does a bad job of it?
Jay Hall
11 months ago

With word that Paulino may need TJ surgery now, the question the Royals need to answer the rest of this season is “Will Player A factor into a role on a contending team in 2013-1015?”

C - Salvador Perez - yes, if healthy Backup C - Brayan Pena - unknown Backup C - Humberto Quintero - unlikely given that he’s already 32. So why keep him this year now that Perez is back?

1B - Eric Hosmer - yes 1B/DH - Billy Butler - yes

2B/Util - Yuniesky Betancourt - no, unless our definitions of “contending teams” are different. Again, why keep running him out there daily if he’s not part of “The Process”

2B - Chris Getz - maybe, although they have never really given that impression before, and he’s missed significant time during three seasons with injury.

3B - Mike Moustakas - yes

SS - Alcides Escobar - yes

LF - Alex Gordon - yes

CF - Jarrod Dyson - perhaps, but not as a starter.

OF - Mitch Maier - given the way they have used him, no.

RF - Jeff Francoeur - maybe in 2013, but beyond that, doubtful.

Util - Irving Falu - possibly. Perhaps experiment with him in a utility role/PR/PH role in the second half.

CF - Lorenzo Cain - possibly, but he needs to get healthy, stay healthy and hit.

Based on that, the Royals everyday roster for the first part of that contention window is largely set. Perez, Hosmer, Butler, Escobar, Moose, Gordon are all in the lineup (or will be) every day. They probably have a backup OF in Dyson and a decent utility option in Falu.

We still need to answer questions in CF, RF and at 2B. Mitch Maier is likeable but ultimately the Royals don’t play him and he doesn’t factor into the future. Francoeur in a platoon role once Cain is healthy would be nice to make sure that both Cain and Dyson still play regularly.

Betancourt’s value to this team is just this year because he doesn’t factor into future plans, so his PT should be cut in favor of Getz, Falu or a fulltime second base candidate.

Further, since the 1B/DH roles are already taken, exploring options for Clint Robinson would be advisable.

Pitching wise, the rotation is iffy.

Paulino - maybe, but TJ is worrisome. Duffy - see Paulino Chen - perhaps, but he’d be in his Age 36 season at the beginning of that run, so it’s doubtful he’d be around much past that. Hochevar - only if he pitches more like good Luke than bad Luke. Mendoza - doubtful unless he surpasses Hochevar. Mazzaro - maybe, but again, he’d need to pass Hochevar. Will Smith - maybe as a spot starter. Teaford - maybe as the bullpen long man Broxton - doubtful Holland - yes, possibly as the closer Crow - see Holland Herrera - see Crow Collins - probably Coleman - possibly as the ROOGY Soria - possibly if he returns and is effective, but he’s on his second TJ Wood - See Paulino and Duffy

By my count we have maybe 1 starter on the current ML roster that will be there during the contention years. 2 of the arms we are depending on to get us into contention either have been under the knife this year, or are headed that way. Hochevar is kind of the cut off man. If you are below him in performance, you probably won’t be on a contending squad unless Luke becomes A LOT more consistent. He could be a 5 on a contender, but not much higher.

Enough internal options exist for position players that we can focus on SP, which is good, because we need a ton of SP.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

Jay, good overview, but assumes Hosmer isn’t Ken Harvey and that Gordon hasn’t reverted to his mean.

Taking the most conservative, stat oriented view, the team won’t be close in ‘13 and FA signings will be a waste of money. Injuries will do that to a team and not all prospects pan out. I would add to the TJ list John Lamb, who is back to throwing a year after.

“does a bad job of it?”

Because the pie-slicers, even though UZR has apparently improved since last year’s essay about Hosmer being out of position, still don’t square with the eyeballs. The eyes tell me Yuni and Gio are poor fielders, they tell me that Esky and Hosmer are quite good. UZR tells us they are all pretty much fatally bad.

“He could be a 5 on a contender, but not much higher.”

Seems a well kept secret, but the Royals are contending and have played pretty well against the expected great teams. SPs aren’t as important on this team as on some others. I’m much more worried about Hoz, Frenchy, and Alex, the three major reasons the club is at 3.88 rpg. If our heavily injured pitching staff wasn’t doing such a good job we’ld be 15 games under .500 by now.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Jim -

First, all of the advanced metrics have Escobar well above average over his career. Defensive metrics have smaller samples and higher volatility, so don’t invest to much importance in a part of a year.

Second, Good compared to what? Bad compared to what? The zone systems are comparing to comparable players on other teams. The advanced metric systems say that Brendan Ryan is better across the board (range, avoiding errors, turning double plays) than Escobar. How many games have you seen him play? The advanced metrics say that JJ Hardy has much less range than Escobar but he’s so good at limiting errors and turning double plays that his net is higher. How many games have you seen Hardy play?

The advanced metrics all have Escobar with well-above-average range, but they ding him on his errors and his double-play turns. (Starlin Castro is an even more extreme version of the same traits). I don’t know how to rely on the eye test to gauge that.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

“If, by “heavily injured pitching staff”, you mean “the bullpen”, then you’re correct.”

Even the various starters have stepped up. The stats will be distorted by the occasional meltdown, but most nights we get a decent game from the starters, including surprising ones like Mazzaro, Adcock, and Mendoza.

“AND likely promote Odorizzi.”

That happens after the ASB unless he falters his next few starts. He’s been more consistent than Duffy was and looks ready. With Paulino down for a year, JaKKKe will happen.

“And this team ABSOLUTELY must acquire more pitching prior to the ‘13 season if DM truly wishes them to improve next year”

Who do you want and what will you pay and for how long, assuming a frontline starter would be willing to come here? Or who would you trade? Arizona would probably take Myers for Saunders:)

“they’re going to need to go out and acquire a stable SP”

Team ERA is 4.06 last I looked, about the same as teams with supposedly great staffs like the White Sox and Phillies. Pitching isn’t the team’s problem.
Jim Wilson
11 months ago

We are last in the AL in runs scored. We are last in walks — by a lot. Kevin Seitzer is one of my favorite players from the past, but our guys are not performing … We’ve been lucky the past 9 games or so (granted we were unluck during the losing streak). Without a big improvement in offense, this team is going nowhere, regardless of the pitching. I believe Jim F. identified three of the problems (Hos, Frenchy, Alex) — I would add 2b and CF to the list.

The pitching in total has been amazing. We knew the starting pitching was a weakness. So what? I’m not yet ready to buy into the bullpen will be worn out argument. Crow, Holland, Broxton, etc. have not thrown that many innings. The extra innings have been thrown by the long guys/fith, sixth, seventh in the rotation. And we have a bunch of them. (However, Paulino REALLY hurts.)

On the other hand, the offense is a big disappointment and concern.
William Wolfe
11 months ago

I guess we should just close the door to our GM office, turn out the lights and think about our roster only, and wait for another GM to call us with an offer before considering whether the team we put on the field is good enough, that appears to be Jim’s way to do it. And frankly, I cannot for the life of me understand how Jim can continually lump Hosmer in as not being good enough, his BABIP is .221 this year! If he was a little luckier this year (or really less unlucky), say a .280 BABIP, still well below average, his batting average would be about .278. If we assume those were all singles that he added, his OPS would be about .775. That makes him equivalent to Mike Napoli, and ahead of Albert Pujols. I’ll take it and I won’t rip him as a disappointment every chance I get either.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

ERA for Royals starters: 4.80 (27th in MLB) ERA for Royals relivers: 2.93 (7th in MLB)

By the advanced stats, they’re closer, but ERA was quoted above, so ERA is what I’ve provided here.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago

Brendan, is there something inherently more special about starter ERA than reliever ERA? I think the total staff ERA is important, then how you get there is a matter of cost and availability. GMDM is taking advantage of a market inefficiency in getting that 4.06, 15th as I recall, more cheaply with dominant relievers than with renting Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt.

“how Jim can continually lump Hosmer in as not being good enough, his BABIP is .221 this year!”

I understand that it is a core tenet that BABIP is just luck, but from what I’ve seen Hosmer has been hitting the tops of balls into the teeth of shifts. Like two of the other big ballers, he just hasn’t been producing enough this year to get the rpg over 3.88. It’s not just Hoz, but he is part of the problem. Had Hoz, Frenchy, and Alex produced like they did last year the Royals might be running away with the race.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Jim, “And if Pujols and Fielder are better overall players than Hosmer, what does that mean? Neither are available. Only thing Royals need to know is that Hosmer is a better fielder than Billy or Clint, which the average fan in the stands can see.”

The Royals need to know how Hosmer compares to other potential 1st basemen in their org as well as how he ranks compared to the other top 1st basemen in the league. While Fielder & Pujols may not be available, someone above Hosmer but below those two may become available and the Royals need to be able to decide if it makes sense to make that move to improve the team as opposed to just putting their heads in the sand and say,”It doesn’t matter b/c we have OUR top player at that position already in the majors so we are good.” Generally I would say that to contend every player on your major league roster should be grading at, on average, at or above league average abilities as much as possible. Obviously that is not easy nor realistic. But that should be the goal. To do that you have to constantly have comparisons available for every player. (Disclaimer:I am not saying they should be trying to get someone better than Hosmer or trade/demote Hosmer. Just using Hosmer in this scenario b/c Jim did.)
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Jim,

You like to tout the STAFF ERA of 4.06. It is actually, according to ESPN 2012 MLB Team Pitching 4.00. Which is good for 14th in the majors. However, they are 3rd to last in QS with 27 according to ESPN, which suggests that the 4.00 ERA that you are touting is largely in spite of the SPing’s overall performance.

My continued point about the importance of SPing is that if you can get your SPers to at least start the 7th inning and thus only use your bullpen for 2, maybe 3, innings/game then it frees up the rest of your roster b/c your ‘pen arms start to have more defined roles and days that they are available. Right now our ‘pen pitches between 4-5 innings/game. Causing the 25 man roster to look how it does now and severely hampering Yost’s ability to make roster moves for the position players or to provide more playing time for players, such as Wil Myers for one. IF they have SPing that could go longer then they may be able to bring up Myers at some point soon after the ASG and then make him a super sub and play all 3 OF positions each week to give the regulars a break and introduce him slowly to major league pitching and thus protect him more, instead of doing to him what they had to do with Moose and Hosmer, which is throw them out there to sink or swim.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Jim, the “market inefficiency” style that you refer to that GMDM is using to build this roster is just not something that brings with it division banners, pennants and championships b/c it doesn’t lend itself to allow for much flexibility of the roster if you have to have 2-3 ‘pen guys go 2+ innings each every game.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

Jim,

I couldn’t agree more. The offense have been miserable and underwhelming. They have been much more patient over the last few weeks but they are simply just not getting runners into scoring position that much. I believe someone from the previous blog post stated that the Royals are basically league avg hitting with RIS. However, he was missing the point of that. It is that they are just not getting the same amount of runners TO scoring position then the rest of the league. I wish there was a stat for that b/c I bet they would be near the last in the league in that, as their subpar RS stat in the standings bears out.
Darral VanGoethem
11 months ago

That last post was for Jim Wilson, sorry for the confusion. I will say that even though I do think that the ‘pen will get run into the ground by August, I will say that Yost has done a MASTERFUL job of managing the ‘pen arms and feeling the flows of each game and using the middle relief guys with perfection to save our shut down 1 inning guys from getting alot of innings pitched like you mentioned, Jim Wilson.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Starter ERA (or better yet, a more advanced metric) should be more important than reliever ERA because starters should be pitching a lot more innings than relievers.

If the Royals really believe that there’s a market inefficiency to be exploited by getting better performance at less cost by relying on relievers, I would think we’d go to a four-man (or even three-man) starting rotation and bring on an extra reliever or two and then have the starters make shorter outings and turn it over to the bullpen.

As it is, it looks a lot like we have just stumbled on to success by having great performance from relievers bailing out a starting rotation that is giving up a lot of runs and not lasting very long into games. I am not sure that we can sustain this workload on the bullpen without a few more pitchers going down with injury.
Tom Roesler
11 months ago

Wow…a lot went on since I went to bed last night.

I was trying to get caught up, but a lot has been written and after reading this line I just had to skip to the bottom and write:

“Jay, good overview, but assumes Hosmer isn’t Ken Harvey…”

Again, good for another late afternoon laugh. I know there is a debate between the numbers guys and eye ballers, but this is just comical. Numbers guys…please use your eyes. Escobar is a solid bordering on exceptional fielder who makes us better up the middle and Hos is the best athlete and has the softest hands we’ve seen at first since half this board has been alive. Plus, Pujols is on his last legs and Hos is just starting. If you want to trade the next decade for the end of Pujols career, go for it. But, you’d be wrong.

Stats are important, but if you think you can build a winner from a dark room without watching anyone play, you aren’t even a baseball fan. You’re a math fan. And, this is supposed to be about baseball played by humans and the human element is what makes it FUN! (foreign concept, I know).

But, again, back to my favorite line quoted above…if after watching Hos play for a year anyone thinks he’s even remotely close to Ken Harvey…well, there’s just not much hope for you. And, that goes for both stat & eye ballers.

Come on guys…if it’s getting to this point, something is fundamentally wrong with us.

Here’s to humans playing a fun game and our boys in blue beating the Cards tonight!

Go Royals!
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Tom -

The guy you’re mocking with the Hosmer-Harvey comparison is the guy who’s on your side in the eyes-numbers debate.

To follow up from my question from earlier: how do you compare Escobar’s defense to these three SS: Brendan Ryan, J.J. Hardy and Starlin Castro?
Tom Roesler
11 months ago

Hey Brendan-

Thanks for the specifics there, but I was simply using Jim’s sarcastic (at least I hope it was sarcasm!) to illustrate how crazy this thread has gotten.

I really wish the Royals would have played yesterday so it could have stopped much sooner, but without a game, we’re left to blather on and on about it.

As for how I compare, personally I take several things into account, but mainly it comes from having played the game and being familiar with it. For the most part, you can tell who has the goods and who doesn’t. Escobar falls into the freak catagory, so unless his numbers drop off the face of the planet, I’m going to laugh at any stat guy who says, “Ummm, but his pie slice graph says he’s not that good.” Dude, watch him play. He can flat out get it done in the field. Added to what he’s done for the team, how he fits in, what he does at the plate, and his numbers…take ALL of that into consideration and you have an evaluation of if he’s the guy you want on your team or not. In both Escobar AND Hosmer’s case, the answer is an incredible YES WE WANT THEM ON OUR TEAM.

Now, there are times when comparables are needed. It cannot be based solely on if a guy passes the eye test and is a likable guy. We do have to have some frame of reference and when it comes to making tough decisions like what’s going on at second base right now, we need the numbers to play a big part. But, it’s just insane to say that this team would be better off in the long run if we traded Hos for Pujols or switched short stops.

Ahhhh, we could go on all night. I’m gonna grab some dinner and then watch the game. Maybe Escobar will make an error tonight for you and you can point out the stats to me tomorrow. I’d still take him and Hos and be very satisfied.
Joel Kallem
11 months ago

Tom, right on. Stats only guys are playing fantasy games, not real ones. The only question is whether I want a particular player to stay on the Royals or want him replaced. I definitely want Esky as my shortstop and Hos as my first baseman (although I would be happier if he was hitting a bit more). In the real world, you cannot just go out and get a desired player just because you want him. The players contract status, desire to come to KC, cost, age, etc, etc all come into play. In the fantasy world, these are not considerations, but they need to be taken into account when looking at trades as does what are we going to have to give up to get the trade done.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months ago

Certain baseball fans (the anti stats crowd) and certain music fans (the vinyl record crowd) might be the only two groups in America that automatically assume that more advanced technology is worse than old-fashioned technology.

The Kansas City Royals fanbase has produced an incredible wealth of advanced baseball minds over the last few decades, beginning with the great Bill James. For a time, the Royals were an innovative team, pioneering the baseball academy and using early advanced stats. However, with Mr. Kauffman’s death the franchise became moribund and stopped innovating themselves or looking for help from their fans who were pioneering new insights in baseball. Instead, other teams have taken advantage of the minds of these Royals fans and used them to help build World Series Champions, while the Royals have posted the worst record in MLB over the last two decades.

The comments on this site are often a reflection of the unfortunate attitude that has turned a once-powerful franchise into a doormat.

I don’t really understand the hostility (especially a week after many were complaining about the negative tone in the comments), but stats guys are rapidly changing the real game, and if the Royals don’t catch up with the times, they’ll never reverse the reputational damage they’ve created over the last 20 years.

I desperately want the Royals to contend, and my biggest fear is that they’re too stuck in the past to compete in today’s game.