Games » Houston Astros
Jun18Everything matters
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
There is no clock in baseball. I’m guessing I’m not the first one to notice that, but here’s the point: because there is no clock, it’s always possible to come back. In basketball or football you can reach a point where it’s impossible to win because there just isn’t enough time left on the clock.
In baseball, there is no clock. As long as you have an out left, you can hit forever. That’s why everything matters. That’s why it’s such a grind: paying attention to every pitch over 162 games is impossible, but important. You never know when a ball thrown away in the first inning will change everything in the ninth.
After Louis Coleman gave up two runs in the bottom of the 8th inning, making the score 6-2, it hardly seemed to matter that he gave up three more — but it did. Those three seemingly meaningless runs were the margin of victory for the Astros. The game ended 9-7 with the tying run on second base.
After the game, Ned Yost said this team has “no quit” in it. Games like Sunday’s 15-inning marathon or this game’s near comeback — 11 hitters came to the plate and five of them scored — can teach a young team an important lesson: do not mentally take a game off, or an inning off, or a pitch off.
Because in baseball, everything matters.
Game notes
First inning: Yuni Betancourt triples. Billy Butler grounds out to short, but the Royals do not have the contact play on. Yuni is slow and they don’t want to risk an out at home. Jeff Francoeur singles to drive in Betancourt, Royals 1-0.
In the bottom of the first, Jonathan Sanchez gives up a home run to Brian Bixler. The Astros’ park has a short, but high, left field porch, 315 feet away from home plate. Right field is also short — at least in comparison to Kauffman — at 326 feet away. These short dimensions will come into play during this series. Corner outfielders will be able to stop runners from taking extra bases because of the shorter throws required and routine fly balls in Kansas City can go home as souvenirs in Houston.
The deepest part of the park is center field, 435 feet away. It features an incline and a flagpole, both in play. The square footage means both teams need centerfielders that can fly. The incline and flagpole mean visiting outfielders are very uncomfortable playing those features.
None of that comes into play when Sanchez walks Justin Maxwell and then throws the ball off-line on a pickoff attempt. Billy Butler’s lack of mobility does comes into play as the ball gets away from him, rolls down the right field line and is finally picked up by Jeff Francoeur. The process takes so long Maxwell scores from first, Astros 2-1.
Fourth inning: The process is repeated: this time Sanchez hits Chris Johnson and makes a pick-off throw so wide that Billy Butler bears no responsibility for it getting away. Johnson only makes it to third, and according to my scorebook, Sanchez never makes another pickoff attempt. If the Astros believe Sanchez will not risk another pickoff attempt, they can take longer leads.
The short left field and Alex Gordon‘s reputation comes into play when Matt Downs hits a fly ball to left. The Astros do not attempt to score the runner on third base.
With one down, Chris Snyder drives in Chris Johnson. Next, Astros pitcher, J.A. Happ, lays down a sacrifice bunt, Sanchez gets to it in time to cut the lead runner down at second, but fumbles the ball and has to settle for the out at first.
If Sanchez handled the chance cleanly, there would have been two down and a runner on first, the pitcher Happ. After hitting Jose Altuve, it would have been Happ trying to score from second, not Snyder. The Astros catcher looked awfully slow, so maybe Happ would have scored as well, but it would have been better to have the pitcher running the bases instead of a position player.
Sixth inning: Alex Gordon stretches a single into a double when left fielder J.D. Martinez moves laterally to field the ball. That movement away from second base means a weaker throw and Gordon takes advantage. Gordon’s base running pays off after a wild pitch and a groundball from Billy Butler results in a run.
Seventh inning: Mike Moustakas walks, Alcides Escobar singles and Humberto Quintero does his job: he hits a fly ball to right field that allows Moustakas to tag and move to third base. Unfortunately, Escobar also tries to move up on the throw and what should have been first and third with one down, becomes a runner on third with two down.
The opportunity to score a run without a hit is lost. Jarrod Dyson walks and Eric Hosmer — hitting against a left-handed reliever because Ned Yost has few options off the bench — strikes out.
Ninth inning: In yet another indication of how mental the game of baseball can be, another closer blows up in a non-save situation. Brett Myers gives up eight hits and five runs. After being down 9-2 at the start of the inning, the Royals have the tying run on second when the game ends.
After the game Ned Yost admits his ability to manage was hampered after the 15-inning game on Sunday. His bench was Eric Hosmer, Mitch Maier and Brayan Pena. Four of his relievers were unavailable and they added an extra pitcher in order to protect the pen.
Yost felt he had to go as far as he could with Sanchez and pointed out several times that Jonathan gave the Royals six innings and kept them in the game. The Ned felt like he had to go as far as he could with Coleman in order to put the bullpen back in order for Tuesday’s game. His ability to match up pitchers and hitters in the later innings was almost non-existent, but he did get through this ball game using only two pitchers.
Sometimes you lose one now to win two later. Here’s hoping they win two later.
Betancourt
Dyson
Gordon
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 1 week agoAs I recall, Jon Sanchez has had trouble with pick off throws to Billy before, Billy saying that the ball moves coming toward him more than anyone he had ever seen, that suggesting that Sanchez doesn’t change his grip before firing to 1st. Not sure if that is something that can be fixed without becoming a “tell” or interfering with a pitch. May be something Big Bill and Sanchez need to practice a little or just have to accept that runners are going to be able to run on Sanchez.
On Sanchez as pitcher last night, he threw 106 pitches in 6 innings, quite efficient…for Jon Sanchez. Six innings, three earned runs, a bit sloppy and weird, but he did what was needed for the team, delivered a quality start and gave the team a chance. Bad luck for Louis Coleman having to throw that long, as he’s become a bit of a Roogy, but he’s a tough kid, will shrug it off and come back nasty. He took one for the team.
Have been trying something a little different, watching some of the game on MLB.com’s Game Day, a graphic presentation showing the strike zone and pitch type and location. It gives a much better idea of what the hitters are facing and suggests why the Royals tend to swing early in the count sometimes, not because they are eager, but because often the first or second pitch is the most hittable that they will see. Gives a good idea of the pitchers’ game plan, they tend to try to get ahead with a first pitch fast ball, often taken, then throw a second pitch a little more up or down and away, then off-speed stuff low and away. As I recall, Eric Hosmer missed and fouled the first two fastballs in the ‘zone, the first thigh-high on the inner third of the plate, the second belt-high on the outer third, then struck out on off-speed six inches out of the ‘zone.
I have a hunch that a move will be made today, maybe Coleman back to the ‘Chasers and Irving Falu called up, a switch-hitter being handy on the bench and he played all four infield and two outfield positions last year with Omaha, probably the most versatile player available and a short-bench needs that versatility.
Good game last night, no quit in the kids, burned up the Astros bullpen, good chance to get ‘em tonight. This team is competitive and in contention in the Central and getting better every week.
Lee Judge
11 months, 1 week agoJim: I watch most games with Gameday on my laptop beside me. It’s a good way to keep up with what’s going on.
Good point about swinging early in the count. Fans hate it when it doesn’t work, but—as Clint Robinson told me—it’s often the best pitch they’ll see and major league pitchers will carve then up if they get ahead.
Jay Hall
11 months, 1 week agoWith the situation the bullpen was in yesterday, Coleman kind of had to get himself out of his own mess. Normally, he probably would have been lifted after the home run, but with the pen worn out he was left out there. He handled it okay and the Royals almost made it pay off in the 9th, but it was more important to get through the game with as few pitchers as possible than to get Coleman out when he was struggling. His teammates almost picked him up, too.
Both Sanchez pick off throws were well away from first. Even if Butler had dove at the first one there’s probably a 50/50 chance he gloves it. And if he dives and misses he has to get up before he can chase. Hosmer gets to the ball quicker because he’s faster, but I don’t think he would have caught either of those throws, either. Granted, maybe Sanchez is more on target throwing to Hosmer, but we can’t know that one way or the other.
It’d be nice to get a couple wins to finish this road trip. I’d call a 4-2 trip after a home sweep a big success.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 1 week ago4-2 would be great, slowly inching up to .500 and we don’t even have three of the missing links yet. I’m still optimistic.
Brian Courington
11 months, 1 week agoI will be at all 3 games and from where I was sitting nobody was going to catch those throws to the first base area code. Sanchez pitched ok other than that. Typical for him, he was wild to the plate also.
I didn’t know before the game, but saw Hottovy and Coleman walking to the bullpen and knew that it anybody pitcher struggled and the Royals were behind it could get ugly. Was good to see them fight back and almost steal a win in the 9th. Don’t know who would have pitched if they tied or went ahead.
Brian Courington
11 months, 1 week agoLee, I know you won’t get to ask until they get back home but was Escobar running on his own on Q’s fly ball in the 7th or was it called from the dugout. I can understand why they were trying to get the tying run in scoring position with one out but didn’t like it. I like their scoring chances better with 1 out man on first and third better than taking the chance on tagging up to second on a fly ball to right field. Oh well, hoping for better results today but not sure what to expect with Hochevar pitching.
Curtis Ruder
11 months, 1 week agoThere is an equivalent to the clock in baseball: outs. Which is why so many of us freak out when outs are treated so recklessly. Gordon’s double worked out, but it still looked a terrible decision, as it took a weak throw several feet offline for him to barely sneak in below the tag. Kudos to the umpire for getting the call right; many times when the ball beats the runner that badly, they just assume the tag was made.
Stretch Armstrong could not have caught Sanchez’s pickoff throws last night. The ball then rolled 120 feet or so away from the nearest defenders. Billy’s speed didn’t help matters, but even with Dyson’s speed and Frenchy’s arm, those runners were both making it to third.
Last night’s game was a bad baseball game; neither team played well, and neither team played smart. It happens. Especially on the heels of a physically and emotionally draining game against your rivals and a cross country trip. It is understandable, but it is still bad baseball.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 1 week ago“Gordon’s double worked out, but it still looked a terrible decision,”
But it would have looked good to Gordon, an outfielder. A defender moving laterally or away from the base loses velocity and accuracy.
“Which is why so many of us freak out when outs are treated so recklessly”
Isn’t “recklessly” in the eye of the beholder? A few weeks ago we looked at the value of an out in bases within a game and outs that generate bases generate value. We looked at it over a few games and the value varies quite a bit, game to game, but can be quantified within a game, which is what the managers and coaches do.
Joel Kallem
11 months, 1 week agoRoyals almost pulled one out. One had to expect a let down after the long game in St. Louis and the flight to Houston. I’m really pleased the Royals had the grit to try to pull the game out in the 9th - it would have been real easy to roll over under these parameters. Let’s not get to caught up in one game, but look at the body of the work over the last 20 or so games. This is the difference between major league baseball and other sports such as the NFL or college basketball where one game carries much more weight.
Aaron Bailey
11 months, 1 week ago“why the Royals tend to swing early in the count”
Sometimes it’s good to swing early and sometimes it’s necessary to build up the pitch count. The key is knowing when to do which. Kudos to Dyson for recognizing the situation in the 5th. After Quintero got out on the first pitch of the inning, and with the pitcher behind him, Dyson watched 5 pitches without lifting the bat off his shoulder. He ended up flying out, but he didn’t let Happ have a super easy inning and Happ only goes one more. The Astros then need to use 5 pitchers to get through the last 3 innings, including the closer throwing 40 pitches. You never know, but all of that just might help the Royals in the next two games.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 1 week agoCurtis -
Very well said, as usual, on both outs and on Gordon’s judgment. I think he and Escobar are two of the smarter runners on the team, but they both took dumb risks last night.
Lee Judge
11 months, 1 week agoEscobar’s decison to tag would be his own—probably. Doug Sisson can help and I’ll ask when they get back if Sis was telling him to tag or stay.
Either way, I thought it was a bad decision. Maybe Doug can talk me out of that.
Aaron: You’re right, there is no one policy that will work regarding pitch selection. If Seitzer comes in and says this guy throws first-pitch fastball strikes, after that it’s garbage, swinging early makes sense.
It’s also more likely with relievers—the hitters aren’t trying to get their pitch counts up.
I’ll ask about the first throw to Billy. The angle I had made it look difficult, but not impossible to block. Others may have had a better view. The second throw was well-wide of first.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 1 week ago“Sometimes it’s good to swing early and sometimes it’s necessary to build up the pitch count.”
Long pitch counts are usually good against a starter, but one thing I see on Game Day is that the pitcher has quite a bit to do with it. He grooves a fastball, strike one, then another one down and away for a foul ball, then the hitter has to do something with the next strike. Some hitters, Getz and Butler, are capable of ruining quite a few good pitches foul, so can get the “professional at-bats” of eight pitches or more. Others don’t have the contact skills to do that. Most often it comes down to doing something with a pitch that you can do something with. If I’m looking fastball middle-in and get it on the first pitch or the tenth, that’s the one I have to square up.
“they both took dumb risks last night.”
What were their odds on those plays? “Dumb”, like “recklessly”, is a judgement, so perhaps you could offer a percentage of success for the specific plays. I consider Esky’s not wise because it was a short throw and the defender was in decent position and able to step into the throw. Gordon’s situation was much different, so “brilliant” might be a better judgement.
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 1 week agoAfter the first inning, I thought we were going to be in for a Mazzaro 14 run performance from Sanchez (can’t believe he only gave up 4, my eyes tell me it should have been closer to 8). Either way I’m glad we only used two pitchers to get the pen a rest for the next few days - I was worried that Sanchez would only go 4 with his PC so high after the first inning.
In regards to the baserunning, I thought Esky’s was reckless and Gordon’s to be a good play with the fielder going laterally with a spin and weak arm, not to mention his great slide (and it got us a run). I believe at the time we weren’t down one or two so we can be a little more aggressive and Gordon made it pay off, he’s playing a little better every game it seems like.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 1 week agoGood observations, Thayne.
Devan Shopinski
11 months agoSanchez looks like a pitcher with an injured arm. His velocity is down and he cannot throw his fastball for strikes consistently unless he takes a ton off of it. What bothered me the most was the play to Billy that he stood and watched instead of covering the base.
If he’s not healthy, he needs to be on the DL. The last thing the bullpen needed was him pitching like he did last night. The last thing the position players that were cooked after the 15-inning game in St. Louis was an outing like that.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months agoThe breakeven percentage on Gordon’s attempt of second is 71.6%. That is, Gordon needs to make second more than 72% of the time in that case for that decision to be a good one.
Given that he just barely beat the throw, he needs a throw at least that bad 72% of the time. I think that, even with the outfielder moving laterally, throws that bad from a MLB outfielder are the exception rather than the rule.
The breakeven on Escobar’s attempt was 79%.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months ago“I think that, even with the outfielder moving laterally, throws that bad from a MLB outfielder are the exception rather than the rule.”
Do you think your judgement of Gordon’s speed, his turn, the outfielder’s arm and angle, are better than Gordon’s in that situation? That is what it usually gets back to, comparison of a bunch of averages with specifics. Gordon has slightly above average speed, is a good base runner, and knows a little something about outfielders. Judging his effort as “dumb” is a bit presumptuous, don’t you think, especially as he was successful at the effort.
“Gordon needs to make second more than 72% of the time in that case for that decision to be a good one.”
What is Gordon’s success rate in that exact, same situation? Obviously a trick question, as situations are seldom if ever exactly the same. A dozen variables in play that only the human mind can work through in real time rounding 1st base.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months agoIf you’d told Gordon at the time he’d made the decision “even if there’s a weak off-line throw, you’d barely make it in under the tag” and “you need to make it 72% of the time in order to break even,” I don’t think he’d try for second.
He misread the situation and made a dumb decision, but he got lucky. Other times, he’s made good decisions but gotten unlucky. I generally like him as a baserunner, but I’m not going to reflexively assume that every decision he makes (or every decision that works out) is right.
I also think Escobar is generally a good baserunner, but I think he made a similar mistake tonight. In both cases, I believe that my considered judgment is more accurate than the player’s snap judgment.