Games: Minnesota Twins, June 5: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Minnesota Twins

Jun5

A play that may have saved the game

When you look at the box score from this game, you will see that Bruce Chen had a win. You will see that Jonathan Broxton had a save. You will see that Greg Holland had a hold. You will see that Eric Hosmer stole a base and scored a run. You will see that Brayan Pena had a hit and an RBI.

But what you won’t see is the play that may have saved the game.

With the Royals leading 1-0 in the top of the ninth, Broxton came into the game to get three outs. Broxton got the first out when Minnesota’s Ben Revere hit the ball to shortstop Alcides Escobar. The Twins’ Josh Willingham then hit a 2-1 slider for a double, putting the tying run in scoring position. No room for error.

With first base open, the Royals didn’t care whether they walked the next batter, Justin Morneau, (and they eventually did) even though he represented the winning run. After the game, Brayan told me they weren’t going to let the left-handed Morneau beat them, so in a crucial situation, Broxton threw a slider — and bounced it.

Brayan made a tough block on the pitch in the dirt, and that prevented Willingham from advancing to third. And that meant there was no runner on third to tag up and score when Minnesota’s Ryan Doumit hit a fly ball to left fielder Alex Gordon for the second out.

There’s no guarantee that Broxton would have thrown the same pitch to Doumit if there had been a runner on third base, but there definitely would have been a runner on third with less than two outs. Pena’s effort to keep a tough pitch in front of him prevented that.

And it won’t show up in the box score.

Game notes

• In the second inning, with Jeff Francoeur on first base, Eric Hosmer tapped a weak grounder to Twins pitcher Francisco Liriano. To his credit, Hosmer hustled and beat out a double play — and that changed the game.

Hosmer then stole second base on Liriano, a left-hander (after first-base coach Doug Sisson leaned in and said this would be a good time to go — I’ll try to find out tomorrow how Doug knew that). Hosmer went on “first movement.”

When a left-handed pitcher is hard to read, runners sometimes will go on his first move and hope they guessed right. When they guess right — like with Hosmer — it can be an easy stolen base. When they guess wrong — like with Alex Gordon — it can be an easy out for the defense.

Hosmer’s stolen base paid off when Brayan Pena drove him in for the only run of the game.

• Apparently, there were complaints — I listen to sports talk radio on the way home — about Ned not sending Bruce Chen back out for the eighth inning so he could face the bottom of the Twins’ order. Chen was at 88 pitches, so it might have been possible to get one more out of him, but of the four hits Chen gave up, three came from the bottom of the order.

After the game, Ned said he considered sending Bruce back out, but it was only a one-run lead. A bad pitch could have tied the game. With no room for error and Brian Dozier (who already had two hits) leading off the inning for the Twins, Yost decided to make the switch.

• Greg Holland came in and would have gone 1-2-3 except for an Alcides Escobar error. Even so, Holland struck out the side and handed the game off to Broxton.

• Apparently there also were complaints about Jonathan Broxton — 14 save, 1.59 ERA Jonathan Broxton. Apparently people on sports talk radio have a lot of complaints. Bob Dutton, The Star’s Royals reporter, and I were talking before the game about how spoiled we have become watching Joakim Soria close games for the Royals. For a while, Soria was pretty much automatic. Plenty of closers aren’t.

• Jarrod Dyson, who has been criticized for his outfield play at times, saved the game when he ran from center field to somewhere in the vicinity of northbound I-435 to catch the final out of the game.

• After the game, Mike Moustakas was in a good mood. He was 0 for 4 with three strikeouts — but his team won. He wasn’t in such a good mood Monday night and he was 3 for 4 with a home run and two doubles — but his team lost. That tells you something very good about Mike Moustakas.

Ned notes

I came around a corner Monday afternoon and there was Ned Yost, sitting in the dugout, watching the players work out. We talked for a while, and here are a few of the things he told me.

• Ned doesn’t buy the idea that it is going to be any easier for the Royals to make up ground in the standings June. No matter their record, every team the Royals face is a major-league team. Every game is tough. You can’t take anyone for granted.

• When he gives a player a day off, it’s as much mental as physical. A player should be focused during every pitch, every inning and every game. A player needs to be aware of the count, the number of outs, the runner’s speed, the hitter’s tendencies, pitching patterns — the list goes on. Ned tells a player taking the day off to sleep in. Don’t come to the park early. Ned may even ask him to stay out the batting cage.

• When a game is over, it’s over. There may be four of five things from the game that require some type of later adjustment, but Ned said that if he didn’t have to talk to the media afterward, he would let the game go almost immediately.

• Ned tries not to clutter his mind with a lot of meaningless stuff — I’m pretty sure what’s being said about him in the media is on the list — because if it doesn’t help him win ballgames, why waste time on it?

• Ned agreed that gut instinct is actually your subconscious talking to you (most of the time). It picks up on things your conscious mind hasn’t registered. Your first instinct is often the right one. Second-guessing yourself can lead to mistakes you would not have made if you trusted your original instinct.

The easy way out

While we debate the managerial strategies of Ned Yost, it’s always good to remember the easiest thing a manager can do — nothing.

A few years back, Clint Hurdle and I had this discussion. To win in the playoffs, sooner or later you would have to play one-run ball. You would run into an ace who was dealing and you couldn’t say, “We’ll get ’em tomorrow.” Lose and there would be no tomorrow.

So if sooner or later you will have to play that way, you can’t wait until you have to play that way to start. It needs to be something you’re familiar with and know how to execute.

If those two things are true (and Clint said they were), why don’t more managers do it? Here’s what Clint said: “The press conference afterward.”

Clint explained that if he sat on his hands he would rarely get criticized. Even though not bunting or stealing or conducting a hit and run is also a decision, many people don’t recognize it as such. A manager who does nothing can blame his players. “Hey, what can I do? The guys didn’t hit tonight.” A manager who makes active, obvious decisions opens himself to criticism.

You can agree or disagree with the moves a manager makes, but recognize that a manager who puts himself on the line has the courage to take responsibility if things don’t work out. And things don’t work out a lot. It’s baseball.

Comments

Dan Holmes
1 year ago

I’m glad you addressed the issue of why Chen didn’t come back out for the 8th. I still don’t really agree with the move (because KC’s bullpen by far leads the league in innings pitched), but I definitely think a reasonable case can be made for the decision Ned made.
James Robbins
1 year ago

Mark, don’t forget having Mijares pitch to Miguel Cabrera. I think I stared blankly at my TV for about an hour wondering how someone could get paid to make that decision. But hey, .5 behind the shoe-in Tigers now so…progress or something.

The bats just need to wake up and compensate for goofball managerial decisions with a ton of runs. It works for Texas. (until the World Series that is)
James Robbins
1 year ago

FYI I realize that was a month ago, but that one just sticks out in my mind because Ned actually ate making a bad decision in that particular game, only it wasn’t the big mistake in many peoples’ eyes.

As far as this game goes, I actually have no problem with pulling Chen for Holland, he seems to be back to dominant form since returning from the DL and it was a one run game.

Broxton however seems to be running on pure luck, much like Soria was for parts of 2010. His K rates are WAY down from his career levels and it seems like there are always guys on base. I think that’s why he freaks a lot of us out when he comes in. Sure he has a nice shiny ERA but he’s had a lot of help from the batters he’s been facing lately. Lookin’ at you Jose Lopez, thanks!

Oh well, as long as he doesn’t bean in the winning run again he’s doing ok. A win is a win and all that.
Thayne Griffin
1 year ago

I don’t think Ned cares much for the criticism, I believe Lee was trying to point out that the press conferences after every game are more of a hindrance to Ned, which I would find as well, especially if you lose because you’re pissed off anyway. Think about basketball or football players, do you think they want to be at the podium after every game for some of them? I don’t believe so. And Ned has to do this 162 times out of around 180-some odd days plus the ASB after long days at the ballpark resulting in a lot of late nights and tons of travel.
Dan Holmes
1 year ago

Yeah, Broxton’s low K rates are pretty alarming. I can understand why they keep trotting him out, though - they’re trying to showcase him for trade value (otherwise it’s probably a wasted $4 million).
Joel Kallem
1 year ago

Was at the “K” for the game, and really could see (and hear) what Master Chen was doing. Lots of pop ups and balls that did not have that solid sound coming off the bat.

Lee, Morneau actually represented the winning run. Never the less, I agree that it was wise to make sure he did not beat you since he is a legitimate threat to leave the yard if he gets one in his wheelhouse.

I am amazed by the reaction of some on this site. The Royals play an excellent, exciting game and win it 1-0 (third shutout in the last 5 games) and all they can do is carp about things. How about enjoying this one and the positive things the Royals did. There will be plenty of opportunity in the future to grouse legitimately on games they mess up - that is the nature (and beauty) of baseball. Baseball is not instant gratification or continuous reward. Even the best teams will lose 60 or so games so don’t expect everyone to do everything perfectly over the season.
Chris Campbell
1 year ago

I generally don’t rip into managers for the decisions they make because they probably know something I don’t. However, I still stand firm on ripping Ned for sac bunting in the 4th inning a couple of nights ago because of all of the factors that were involved at the time: Already scored three runs (big inning alread in progress), last two runners reached on errors (Twins are trying to have a meltdown), Will Smith is your starter (he sucks and there’s no way in hell he’s going to hold a 1 or 2 run lead), you’re taking the bat out of the hands of a .300 hitter and putting it in the hands of the #8 and #9 hitter. It is, was, and always will be a REALLY bad move.

I don’t want to beat up on Ned too much because overall he’s done a really good job with this team, but there’s still no way to justify the sac bunt in that situation. Last night I would have liked to see Chen in the 8th, but Ned’s explanation makes perfect sense. Once again he knew something I didn’t. If the Royals could just get some help in the rotation. I’d be okay with sending Crow to Omaha to stretch him out for the rotation.
Mark Harkins
1 year ago

How many 1-0 pitching duals did anyone think we were going to win this year with our starting staff and without Soria? The bullpen’s been solid, and Chen’s the most reliable starter we have. Why push it? It’s not like he had a no-hitter going. Saving that extra inning on that old arm will pay dividends in August.

And thanks for pointing out Pena’s block. During Nats/Mets BOTH catchers let low pitches go through their legs and let runners advance… and both plays were very late in a close game, plus both teams have more to play for than the Royals right now.
Phil Schreck
1 year ago

Mark Owens, Your post was probably THE BEST I’ve ever seen here!
Jeff Frost
1 year ago

Hey- we are winning! We have overcome a 0-12 homestand and are only 5 under .500. We are only 6.5 behind. LOT of season left! Hosmer and Gordon haven’t even begun to hit, and Perez will be back soon. Starting pitching- other than Hoch, is turning the corner. Yes- there are issues, but what teams don’t have them. With all that has gone on through the first 1/3 of the season, I feel pretty good about the last 2/3. GO ROYALS!! Thanks Lee for all you do!
Tom Roesler
1 year ago

“After the game, Mike Moustakas was in a good mood. He was 0 for 4 with three strikeouts — but his team won. He wasn’t in such a good mood Monday night and he was 3 for 4 with a home run and two doubles — but his team lost. That tells you something very good about Mike Moustakas.”

Man…this is dead on and one of the reasons why I like what’s going on with this team in the “non-statistical” categories.

Actually, reading this was even convicting on a personal level. I need to approached life with that mentality - not just thinking it but actually LIVING it.

John Wooden (and others) said: “It is amazing how much can be accomplished if no one cares who gets the credit.” I’m happy our Royals play that way and I need to do a better job of living that way.

Thanks for sharing that little insight Lee!
Brian Grant
1 year ago

Was out at the game last night, and the best part of a 1-0 game, is that it’s over in 2 hours and 30 minutes….and about half of that time was spent watching Denard Span step in and out of the batters box. Seriously, how can someone so fast, be so damn slow?

Chen and Liriano were both affective for the same reason most other pitchers are: Surprise. Throwing sliders and changeups in fastball counts, and fastballs on 0-2 counts (that is, unless your pitching to Moose or Frenchy, then it’s sliders in the dirt for the easy K).

Why don’t more pitchers do this? Is it lack of trust in their secondary pitches?
Jay Hall
1 year ago

Chen was great last night. He has been the Royals most reliable pitcher the last three years. He’s not the Royals best starter (that’s Paulino), but he has done a good job for the most part this year.

Also, another sac bunt went wrong last night, this time for the Twins (bad execution cost them an out without advancing the runner). That’s now three consecutive games where a team attempted a sac bunt and lost the game. And this sacrifice attempt came even earlier (3rd). At least this game appeared to be turning into a pitcher’s duel as the bunt followed the first hit allowed by Chen.
Bob Forer
1 year ago

So Yost yanks Chen in favor of Holland, who strikes out the side, and FOR THAT Yost catches flak from the pundits???

I understand their reasoning—that our bullpen has already logged a lot of innings— and its not very convincing. IMHO, you play for the moment—and the win—and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. One mistake from Chen and the game is tied.

The season is still relatively young. Come August, if arms are tired and assuming the season is lost, you give the minor league prospects a shot. And if, instead, we’re in the middle of a pennant race? Well that’s a good problem to have.
Brian Grant
1 year ago

I don’t really understand the “one mistake from Chen” argument. One mistake from Holland, and you’re in the same boat.

I thought it was an OK move. Bullpen has been solid, Holland was fresh, the hitters coming up were right handed and had 3 hits on the night against Chen. Pitch count is only one aspect of the decision.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Couple things: Joel, absolutely right, I had two people named as the tying runs in the opening bit. I can’t emphasize too strongly how easy it is to make mistakes when writing dog-tired at 1AM. Heck, I can screw things up at high noon. (I went back and fixed it.)

Secondly, if you think Ned was complaining about the media—which I didn’t say and neither did he—you missed the point. It’s just not on his radar.

That’s true for most of the players and coaches as well. They just don’t see the value in getting caught up in what’s being said about them. Of course they also don’t get caught up in what day it is, either.

Ned was pointing out that you learn what you can from that night’s game and move on to the next. That process is slowed down a bit by the media: we need him to go back over the just-concluded game.

Clint Hurdle’s the one who said it’s easier to sit on your hands and avoid criticism. If you know Clint, he doesn’t do that. And neither does Ned.

I thought—and think—the guys who actually have to go out and make decisions and then get second-guessed, deserve some credit for doing so.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Brian (and I guess everybody else): Chen was nearing the end of what he could do and Holland was completely rested.

The Twins’ hitters had seen Chen in mulitple at-bats and that can favor the hitters. Brian Dozier already had two hits and probably would not have minded another whack at Chen.

Bringing in a completely rested Holland with a very different look from Bruce Chen was Ned’s way of making sure trouble didn’t get started. You’re right, one mistake from Holland and you’re in the same boat, but it seemed like the one mistake was less likely if Holland came in.

If Chen had a two-run lead, Ned would have sent him back out there. Then Chen could give up a bomb and still leave the game with a lead.
John Wilson
1 year ago

Chen continues to amaze me with what he does on the mound. I say that almost every outting he has it seems. When Broxton comes in, my wife and I have come to ask the question, Will Beasty Broxton or Scary Broxton be pitching? It is a new Royals pasttime we have watching on tv.

3 shutouts in 5 games - from the Royals pitching staff. Waddup! I did NOT see that coming this year!

Sometimes I wish the comment section had like and dislike buttons for individual comments. I’d be curious what others think, good or bad, about some of the posts.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Lee -

I like Clint Hurdle a lot, but even if I had no opinion on the effectiveness of sacrifice bunting, I think his comment is missing something important.

When managers insert themselves into the game, they set themselves up for the blame — or the credit. They’re taking a risk, but it’s not a totally selfless one. Managers get plenty of credit when their moves work out (Tony LaRussa is probably the most extreme example of this).

Everybody in the big leagues in any capacity believes in their ability. I’m sure that when Yost or Hurdle makes a move, they think it’s going to work, and if it works, they get rewarded with praise (and maybe a new contract, after enough times). It’s very difficult to resist that urge, and it shouldn’t surprise us that managers call for more sacrifice bunts, steals, and hit-and-runs than is optimal.

On a side note relating to another comment in the post, I don’t know if Yost is a gambler, but a night or two at the craps or roulette table ought to be enough to cure someone of the idea that hunches are your usually your subconscious picking up on something, at least for me. Even in totally random settings like those, my brain still keeps generating hunches at the same rate.

On this game, I have nothing but praise for Yost. I liked pulling Chen for Holland, for all of the reasons you stated.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jay -

Excellent pickup on the Twins’ sacrifice bunt failing to advance the runner in the 3rd. A lot of the debate on sacrifice bunts assumes that they work every time. Last night was a good reminder that about 1/3 of sacrifice bunts fail to move the runner.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Great game from Master Chen, kept his pitch count down, which helps him later in the year.

As for the rants on Yost, I’m sure, if he paid attention to talk radio and the bloggers in a niche we are familiar with, he’ld be glad that the focus is on him instead of the players.

“Actually, the voices thing is the only explanation that makes any sense at all. So that’s progress, I suppose.”

Nice mash-up of Nick, Clint, Marcus, Mike, and probably a couple of talk radio shows.

I would add that using “Yunitard” is kind of childish. I’m sure Cornhizer would be proud of you, or maybe Berman, but kibutzers don’t really have the standing or the reason to insult people like that from the safety of a comments thread. Yuni may not be Chris Getz in the field, but that’s no reason for the chattering folks to get personal about it.

“a night or two at the craps or roulette table ought to be enough to cure someone of the idea that hunches are your usually your subconscious picking up on something”

Only analogous if you think everything on a baseball diamond is luck, like BABIP was once thought to be by some.
Bob Forer
1 year ago

Brian wrote: “I don’t really understand the “one mistake from Chen” argument. One mistake from Holland, and you’re in the same boat.”

True, Brian. But Chen had already gone seven and was probably a bit tired. And he has a propensity, like most pitchers, to make a mistake when tired. Holland, on the other hand, was well rested.

Yes, a mistake from either one and its a game changer. But from Yost’s point of view (which I happen to agree with) Holland was less likely to throw a mistake than Chen.
Ben Weddle
1 year ago

Lee, Something I haven’t seen mentioned are all the stolen bases the Royals have given up lately. I can’t assign any numbers to it but the Twins had at least a couple of steals without our catcher making a throw. That tells me the pitcher is lax in holding the runner close or is slow coming to the plate, or both. How much longer until Perez makes it back and who will be let go when he does come back?
John Wilson
1 year ago

Ben - I know during the broadcast last night that they said Perez could return as soon as before the end of June. Most of the speculation I’ve read (fortunately here in Springfield MO we don’t get the KC talk radio pundits) says that Pena is at the bottom of the catchers’ list.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Ben: John knows as much as I do. Perez has been playing and catching some innings on his rehab assignment.

But don’t expect his return to solve all the problems: one night the red Sox stole four bases with him behind the plate, but it was more about Hochevar’s delivery time than Sal’s.

There is an argument to be made for concentrating on the hitter and letting the chips fall where they may with the runners.

If speeding up a delivery puts the ball up in the zone (a common side effect) some guys say the heck with it.
Ron Cloninger
1 year ago

I’ve always believed it’s not the decisions that managers make that get’s criticized. It’s the result. Take the first game in this series, bunting with men on second and first. If Dyson puts the ball in play we probably score and if either he or quintero gets a hit we likely score two more. If that had happened I doubt anyone would have said a thing about that decision. The unknown result is always the better one to fans and media when the result of a decision is unfavorable. But for all we know Escobar could have hit into a double play if he swings away.

And I’m glad to see you mention Pena’s block of that pitch. I think he has been labeled as a bad defensive catcher based on a few plays over his career. He is blocking balls in the dirt very well this year and he certainly blocked home plate the other day which is the main thing he still gets criticized for.
Anthony L. Monley
1 year ago

Great post(s) Mark
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Took my rounds of the rest of the market and am surprised to note that no one appears to be in mortal angst over a player losing a total of three bases, worth about ten outs at last night’s exchange rate, through base running.

“He is blocking balls in the dirt very well this year and he certainly blocked home plate the other day which is the main thing he still gets criticized for.”

Brayan Pena has been getting consistently better the last two seasons and is turning into a very solid defensive catcher. Given he switch-hits and hits a little, I think I keep him when Sal Perez comes back. Not a knock on Quintero, but if it’s a coin-flip I keep the guy that’s been here and really wants to be here.
Chuck Smith
1 year ago

Agree with you Jim. I’ve always liked Pena. Feels like he is hard worker, always trying to improve. I think he has a decent enough bat and last but not least, he seems so very appreciative of the Royals as a whole. Perfect ambassador for how you want the young ones being introduced into a locker room.

Complaining about Ned is like complaining about your local Department of Motor Vehicles. You think yours is bad until you go visit another one and then you wonder why they don’t do it like yours did.

I like Ned, think he is an excellent coach. I rarely see him make the same mistake twice (well other than rolling NUKE out every 5th start). I like his controlled aggressiveness. Much better to watch than those that do nothing.
KC Guy
1 year ago

I’m still waiting for the complaints about Hosmer’s stolen base attempt. I mean, come on, you have a guy with a career success rate of only around 70% trying to steal in the 2nd inning against a LH pitcher who came into the game with a 7.20 ERA (while your pitcher came in just under 5), after you already had a runner picked off in the 1st inning…and you’re risking your baserunners trying to squeeze out a run that early in the game? How is important is a single run in the 2nd inning going to be anyway? With those two pitchers and that much baseball left to be played, the game is obviously likely to be a slugfest. Clearly a terrible decision.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

One thing I don’t understand about the criticism of sabermetric reasoning is the tendency to misrepresent it. There are plenty of actual arguments made here. There’s no reason to invent one.

Here are some relevant stats on the Hosmer steal: Runners’ SB% stealing against Liriano: 74%

Hosmer’s SB%: 70%

Breakeven success rate on SB in that situation: 69% (assumes 4 run/game enviroment)

Liriano’s expected ERA: 4.27 (if you use xFIP) or 4.45 (if you use the in-season ZIPS projection)

I don’t have any problem with sending Hosmer or sending Gordon in a similar situation the inning before. It’s positive or neutral expected value, even taking into account the possibility of getting caught stealing.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

I’m very confused about Clint Hurdle’s statements about bunting. He of all people should have realized how futile it is. He has been to the post season 1 time as a manager. In that post season he attempted to sac bunt 6 times. 3 of those were pitchers, which is way different than what we all complain about when we complain about bunting. Of the other 3 attempts 1 was unsuccessful and no runs scored after any of them.

Sounds to me like Hurdle is throwing some hocus pocus around as fact.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I’m still waiting for the complaints about Hosmer’s stolen base attempt.”

Big smiley face, KC:)

“Sounds to me like Hurdle is throwing some hocus pocus around as fact.”

As Billy Beane once said, “My [stuff] don’t work in the playoffs.” Sounds like you may have a preconception and mine history for support, something we all have been known to do.

“Here are some relevant stats on the Hosmer steal: Runners’ SB% stealing against Liriano: 74%

Hosmer’s SB%: 70%”

If you were now able to apply Liriano’s times to the plate last night, the catcher’s pop times, and Hosmer’s speed to second you would have much of what a coach and Hosmer had, minus the hunch factor of watching Liriano last night and judging how much attention he was paying to Hosmer on that pitch.

“You think yours is bad until you go visit another one”

I visit other teams’ blogs and sometimes am surprised that apparently every manager in MLB is an idiot and every GM an incompetent buffoon. It’s a lot like politics anymore:)
Aaron Reese
1 year ago

I don’t understand the criticism for taking Chen out. We have short-winded starters and a capable 500-man bullpen.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jim F -

KC Guy misrepresented the argument that I and several others have been making against the Royals’ stolen-base strategy this year. I gave him the numbers that people have actually been using. The pop time and others aren’t relevant to correcting the misrepresentation.

As long as you bring it up though, I don’t really understand the defense of those statistics. You often argue that long-term averages aren’t useful because they miss short-term trends or whatever, but, as Lee has reported before, the Royals coaches are using long-term averages for the catcher’s pop times, pitchers’ time to plate, and runners’ base-to-base times instead of timing during the game to get new information. I would think that you’d be opposed to that.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Just to clarify (if I need to): the Royals get new times on pitchers and catchers every night.

That string you see coming out of Sisson’s pocket is his stopwatch.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“the Royals coaches are using long-term averages for the catcher’s pop times, pitchers’ time to plate, and runners’ base-to-base times”

No. Adjustments are made constantly, although times tend to stay within ranges barring injury or a particular change.

The coaches will base pop times on recent games and are able to adjust the numbers in the head after a first steal attempt, as an example. The situation also offers adjustments, the time to the plate plus pop time varies depending on pitch and location, so the count and the score factors into the equation on the field.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Lee -

I asked you this question a few weeks ago about how they got updated information to the players since the base coaches aren’t checking their stopwatches during the game. I asked how the bench relayed that information out to the coaches. You said at the time: “They have the pitchers timed out before the game ever starts. They must do it off video or get them from the advance scout.”

Now it sounds like you’re saying that they’re timing during the game. Am I missing something?
KC Guy
1 year ago

I didn’t even mention whatever your argument about stolen base strategy is. My comment comes more from the idea that yesterday, when Yost put the Royals into a good run scoring opportunity in the 4th inning, one or two runs at that point in the game were apparently irrelevant, since there was clearly more scoring to come. So, when the Royals sacrificed an out, they were doing it too early in the game for a run(s) that just weren’t important enough. But, yesterday, the risk that early in the game, when the relative importance of that run wasn’t yet known, was just fine.

If you want to talk about your stolen base strategy, though: what exactly is it? All it seems like you’re basically looking at is whether the percentages say it might be a good time to attempt a steal. It’s only really relevant for a generic game situation – as in, “for this situation, how often do we need to be successful to make it worthwhile?” Teams are already doing that. They’re actually doing it in a little more detail, though – as in, “for this situation, in this game, against this pitcher, how important would a successful steal be vs. making an out?

Besides, at your breakeven point, which means more: Is it the runners SB %? The SB % against the pitcher (or maybe the catcher)? You seem to be saying, “Player A steals at this rate, Pitcher B gives up this percentage, so, if it matches the necessary percentage for the situation…send the runner!” The Royals can apply a 69% breakeven point to tell them what type of risk/reward they can expect by sending the runner, but it tells them absolutely nothing about the likelihood of success in that specific situation. They were 1 for 2 last night, so doesn’t that mean they didn’t even meet the threshold required?

“the Royals coaches are using long-term averages for the catcher’s pop times, pitchers’ time to plate, and runners’ base-to-base times instead of timing during the game to get new information”

What do you think the coaches are doing out there with their stopwatches? Adding the pitcher’s times to the database to average out over the long term to use at a future date? No, they’re getting the specific times for that game. They’re watching the pitcher’s motion/delivery during the game to see if it matches up to what they’ve studied previously on video to pick up on cues. In other words, they’re using what they’ve known to be true in the past, matching it up to what they’re seeing that day, and then deciding how likely it is that the runner is going to be able to successfully steal a base. The thought process about whether is makes sense to attempt it is only one part of the entire decision..
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Now it sounds like you’re saying that they’re timing during the game. Am I missing something?”

I saw a piece several years ago about testing how well crew chiefs and other experienced race people could do judging speeds of a car by eye. A baseball coach does the same thing, as can many fans or hunters or little kids playing tag in the yard.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

KC Guy -

I thought even you agreed yesterday that the sacrfice bunt attempt reduced run expectancy but possibly increased the expectancy of scoring a single run in the inning. The argument was that the 4th inning of a high-scoring game was too early to sacrifice a big inning for a single run.

The steal attempts yesterday were neutral or slightly positive to run expectancy (both pitcher and runner SB rate were at or above the breakeven rate), so there’s no tradeoff of sacrificing-total-runs-for-a-single-run to be made. If it’s positive expected value, you do it at any point in the game.

I still think the Royals steal too much, but the two cases last night (even though the success rate was only 50%) are not cases I would object to.

As for the information on what the coaches are doing during the game, what you’re claiming conflicts with what Lee has reported earlier, so I’ve asked him to clarify.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jim -

I’m waiting for a definitive word from Lee on this, but are you saying that the coaches are timing them without stopwatches — just using their eyes?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“The argument was that the 4th inning of a high-scoring game was too early to sacrifice a big inning for a single run.”

The counter-argument was that a one run lead would activate the bullpen and turn it into a low scoring game.

“As for the information on what the coaches are doing during the game, what you’re claiming conflicts with what Lee has reported earlier, so I’ve asked him to clarify.”

It’s been clarified. “Gotcha” didn’t work. Sorry. Lee gets busy, others cover for him in more detail than he has time for. Just the nature of the community.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jim -

I’ll wait for Lee to clarify rather than your speculations based on an article you read a few years ago or KC Guy’s impressions from watching TV, especially since, even today, you guys said different things (timing with the eyes versus timing with stopwatches).

And I think you might be getting a little thin-skinned if you think what I wrote above was a “gotcha” stunt.

Lee wrote a few weeks ago about how Francoeur was thrown out on a steal that he attempted when the pitcher was delivering to the plate in 1.5 seconds (too fast to run on) as opposed to the 1.7 seconds that the Royals look for. I asked how Francoeur is getting up-to-the-minute information during the game. Lee said that the times come from scouting previous games (and that Sisson has a card with all the times written on his back pocket each game). From that exchange, it seemed clear to me that the Royals weren’t getting updated times during the games. Now, you and KC Guy (and maybe Lee) are saying that they are. I don’t think it’s a “gotcha” to ask for clarification.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

“Sounds like you may have a preconception and mine history for support,”

I definitely had a preconception but based upon what Hurdle was saying I wanted to see if practiced this theory. It turns out that conclusion that he theorized wasn’t truth when he was involved. Which makes me wonder how he got to this theory in the first place.

My feeling is that someone probably told him this based upon anecdotal evidence. He turned it into a mantra.
Joel Kallem
1 year ago

I’m amazed that the major league teams don’t rush out and immediately hire all of our knowledgeable gurus so that they can become instant winners. Easy to criticize, harder to actually put your butt on the line.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“I’ll wait for Lee to clarify rather than your speculations based on an article you read a few years ago or KC Guy’s impressions from watching TV, especially since, even today, you guys said different things (timing with the eyes versus timing with stopwatches).”

Well, first of all, Lee already clarified above. He’s also written many times about Sisson (and many other coaches) holding a stop watch in their hand and timing during every game. The card Sisson has is based off of past times, and also contains notes on keys to focus on for each opposing pitcher. So, how would the players get current day information on a pitcher’s times? Well, Sisson is, you know, standing right there..

It seems like you enjoy being deliberately obtuse about trying to make other people’s arguments sound dumb – you did it yesterday by trying to craft my argument into somehow saying that “scoring fewer runs = more wins!” and you’re doing it now by mischaracterizing Jim’s anecdote that, many times, professionals are also able to fairly accurately judge certain times/speeds based on eyesight into him saying that they’re only using eyesight as their judge. As many times as you like to say that others are getting your arguments wrong, I would think you would be conscious of doing the same.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

For our readers, Greg Schaum has a really good interview with Kyle Zimmer’s coach that gives a lot of insight into our new #1 draft choice:

http://www.pinetarpress.com/interview-greg-moore-pitching-coach-university-san-francisco/
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

KC Guy -

I’m going to post some quotes from yesterday. I acknowledge that they are selective quotes. I’m doing that because I don’t know how to bold using this comment technology so I can’t post the whole thing and highlight the relevant parts.

What I’m trying to do is show why I understood you to be saying that fewer runs = more wins.

“To me, the idea of playing for a big inning nearly all of the time is kind of like going to the horse track and trying to make money by betting on the longshots in every race.”

“If you average the big payoffs with all of the small losses, it might look like a good strategy overall, …”

“Going for a higher risk/higher reward gamble means you’re more likely to come up empty, which is usually going to make it harder to come out ahead at the end of the day.”

“Of course, in baseball, even if you beat the odds and have a huge payoff one inning and live a life of ease the rest of the day…you don’t get to keep your winnings to use tomorrow.”

I understood you to be saying that, for purposes of this analogy, playing for higher run expectancy results in more runs overall (quote 2), but fewer wins (quote 3), possibly because the runs would be unevenly distributed resulting in some high-scoring wins and lots of low-scoring losses (quote 4).

It was not my intention to misrepresent the argument, just to simplify it.

With Jim’s argument, I confess that I was mocking it a bit. I don’t think that humans, under stress, can reliably perceive times at tenths-of-a-second level of accuracy. If we could the Royals wouldn’t be trying to run so often in cases where the pitchers had sped up their delivery during the game.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Joel -

MLB teams have been rushing out to hire these gurus. Mike Fast, a Royals fan who’s done great work for Baseball Prospectus got hired by the Astros last year (and now the Astros put run expectancy on the scoreboard!); Bill James, who launched the sabermetric revolution, now works for the Red Sox; Jeff Zimmerman, who does great analysis over at Royals Review, has worked for the Diamondbacks, etc etc.

One of the frustrating things about following sabermetrics is that so many of the best writers and thinkers get snatched up by the teams and sealed behind confidentiality agreements. That’s one reason we hear so little from Bill James these days.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I’m amazed that the major league teams don’t rush out and immediately hire all of our knowledgeable gurus so that they can become instant winners.”

The Red Sox hired Bill James. How’s that working for them?

“I don’t think that humans, under stress, can reliably perceive times at tenths-of-a-second level of accuracy.”

That is the voice of inexperience talking, Brendan. A tenth of a second is an eternity when a fastball is headed for your head, just to keep an example within the thread.

“What I’m trying to do is show why I understood you to be saying that fewer runs = more wins.”

You misunderstood. He was talking about “playing” for more runs. That was pointed out to you in the thread. There is a difference between desire and achievement. Last night, Alex, after an at-bat against Liriano, made the correct judgement that runs would be scarce, so made a real-time adjustment in his approach to the game. It didn’t work, Liriano may have throw a fastball away from the right-handed hitter when the count suggested breaking stuff down and in, another of those quirky little variables that stats can’t quantify.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

I’ll let KC Guy clarify because I don’t think that’s what he was saying. I took his second quote to mean that this strategy he was describing resulted in more money (runs) overall.

And I don’t see what the fastball example has to do with humans’ ability to measure time accurately. Are you saying that a player with a fastball coming at his head can reliably say what speed the ball is travelling at (say, to within an mph)?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

No, I’m saying that, in the real world, a tenth of a second can be an eternity. A batter has to be pretty good at judging the speed of a ball coming at him, someone standing at right angles to the ball has a much easier time of it. In the case of the crew chiefs, they could routinely get within 1% of actual speed. Next time you’re at the K try to judge the speeds. As they stay in ranges, you should be able to get within 20% easily, one mph on a fastball, just by identifying the pitch correctly.

What’s the stats say Paulino will do tonight?
Steven A Hurst
1 year ago

“When he gives a player a day off, it’s as much mental as physical. A player should be focused during every pitch, every inning and every game. A player needs to be aware of the count, the number of outs, the runner’s speed, the hitter’s tendencies, pitching patterns — the list goes on. Ned tells a player taking the day off to sleep in. Don’t come to the park early. Ned may even ask him to stay out the batting cage.”

It kinda looks to me that Esky needs a day off… just this Royals fan’s gut feeling.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“I understood you to be saying that, for purposes of this analogy, playing for higher run expectancy results in more runs overall (quote 2)”

That’s exactly it – you’re simply making up the part about higher risk / higher reward strategy resulting in more overall runs, because you can then “simplify” the concept into something that sounds really stupid. The quote about averaging the big wins with the small losses isn’t a comparison of the strategies at all; it’s simply highlighting the idea that the overall average in that case may be obscuring the more important day-to-day activity. The idea is that always going for the big score is likely going to result in more peaks and valleys, so for the sake of consistency from game to game, it may not be the optimal strategy. But I think you already understood that was the point…
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

KC Guy -

I still don’t understand what you’re saying. I know you oppose the strategy, but I can’t follow the underlying logic through the analogy.

Do you oppose playing for the highest run expectancy (outside of late game situations) because 1) you think it results in fewer runs and therefore fewer wins; 2) you think it results in just as many runs but fewer wins; or 3) you think it results in more runs but fewer wins?

Even though I read your analogy to say 3, it sounds like you’ve eliminated that. So is 2 or 1? Then, I would like to move to why you would expect a higher expected-value strategy to fail to produce higher value.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

“The idea is that always going for the big score is likely going to result in more peaks and valleys, so for the sake of consistency from game to game, it may not be the optimal strategy.”

I can only assume that this is in reference to letting the team swing away instead of bunting and stealing bases? Do you have any evidence to back up that this strategy leads to inconsistent scoring?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I know you oppose the strategy,”

That is an error. The opposition is to always playing for the big inning, just as it would be to playing for a small inning. Both Small Ball and Big Ball are tools. The idea is to select the right tool for the specific job and that will usually have to factor in the workmen involved.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

“Both Small Ball and Big Ball are tools. The idea is to select the right tool for the specific job and that will usually have to factor in the workmen involved.”

Amen to that. Could not agree more.
Thayne Griffin
1 year ago

I’ve heard tell that Billy Butler can tell approximately what speeds (mph) pitches are coming in, so it is possible to say that people can approximately tell the times imo.

Couldn’t agree more on Esky needing a day off, just don’t like the fact that it puts Yuni and Gio’s defense in the middle of the field.
Devan Shopinski
1 year ago

This debate here and on the Royals MLB blog about whether the bunt 2 nights ago was the right or wrong decision has grown old. It didn’t work. So what? They may have turned it into 5 more runs with Escobar swinging away, maybe not. The way everyone on this team is hitting right now and leaving guys on base with sickening regularity, maybe Ned was simply trying to think outside the box. Who knows. The fact is that the bullpen kept allowing runs and guys to steal bases and score. That one move did not cost them the game.
Joel Kallem
1 year ago

Have no problem with professional gurus giving insights to the manager and coaches to help fine tune their judgements. Every bit of information helps, and those employed by clubs know if their input isn’t good, they’re gone just like others in the organization. My comment was for the local gurus who have all the answers but none of the responsibility for what they advocate.

Last night’s victory, while against the “book” in some ways illustrates why sabermetrics isn’t the be-all, end-all answer. It is based on what has happened in the past (and you can learn valuable lessons from that), but may not be applicable to the present given specific game conditions.
Curtis Ruder
1 year ago

I hate Betancourt. Well, sports hate, not actual hate. I hope he lives a happy and productive life somewhere far, far away from the Royals infield. (Yeah, he just hit a two run blast; he still stinks.)

All that being said, Yunitard is really juvenile and offensive. And when we make one statement that is juvenile and offensive, people judge everything else we say against that.

It’s a free country and you can do what you want, but if you want to persuade someone as opposed to just vent, then please tone it down.