Games: Oakland Athletics, June 3: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Oakland Athletics

Jun3

Getting your money’s worth

Let’s say you packed up the car, loaded the kids in the back seat, drove out to Kauffman Stadium, paid for parking, bought tickets, found your seats, sat down, watched one play, then turned around and went home. You still might have gotten your money’s worth — as long as the one play you saw was Alex Gordon’s catch and throw in the fifth inning.

This is one of the reasons to watch professional sports — the chance that a great athlete will do something amazing and you’ll be there to see it.

Let’s set the scene. The Royals were up by one run in what was turning out to be a pitcher’s duel between Oakland’s Tommy Milone and Kansas City’s Vin Mazzaro. Each pitcher had given up four hits (an Eric Hosmer homer accounted for the one run) and both teams were scrambling to find another run.

Mazzaro led off the fifth with a walk to Adam Rosales — not what you want to do in a one-run game — and the next batter, Collin Cowgill, hit a single, putting runners on at first and second. Cliff Pennington bunted the runners over (clearly the Royals’ Ned Yost isn’t the only manager who finds the sacrifice bunt useful on occasion).

Josh Reddick then hit a fly ball that seemed destined to find the seats in foul territory down the left-field line. Gordon sprinted over, just in case. The ball boy grabbed his stool and cleared the area. Alex briefly considered letting the ball drop. The throwing angle would be awful and Rosales might tag and try to score.

At the last second, Alex reached out and caught the ball, palm up. He bobbled the ball slightly, and, just as he feared, Rosales tagged. Moving on a dead run, Alex controlled the ball and made a snap throw while off balance — looking for all the world like the third baseman he used to be.

The throw had to go over the runner. There was no clear throwing lane. Catcher Brayan Pena was waiting at the plate, and Rosales was bearing down on him. Brayan was like an NFL receiver going across the middle—the ball’s on its way, and he knows he’s going to get crushed after it arrives.

He did.

But Pena held on to the ball to complete one of the best plays you ever will see at a ballpark. If you only saw one play Sunday afternoon and this was that play, you got your money’s worth.

Game notes

First inning: With a runner on first base, Alcides Escobar knocked down a ball headed up the middle and flipped it to Johnny Giavotella, who was covering second base. Johnny couldn’t make the grab, but it prevented the runner from going first base to third. That play, while not resulting in an out, possibly saved a run when the next batter hit a fly ball to shallow centerfield. It could have been a sacrifice fly without Esky’s play.

Oakland starter Tommy Milone was running cutters in on right-handers. The A’s had their third baseman near the line because any righty who got the bat head to that cutter would probably have to pull it down the line.

Second inning: Eric Hosmer crushed a ball to center field for a home run. Eric has made an adjustment to his swing, taking a smaller stride and getting his front foot down sooner. Eric smoked the ball in all three plate appearances Sunday. This didn’t look like a hitter who needs to go to Omaha to get his confidence back.

Third inning: Alex Gordon doubled. He made the decision to head for second when he saw the outfielder moving sideways to field the ball. Sideways movement = weak throw. Johnny Giavotella did a nice job moving Gordon to third with a fly ball to right, but Billy Butler (the key hitter in this scenario because he did not need a hit to score a run) struck out and Jeff Francoeur lined out to end the inning.

Fifth inning: Jarrod Dyson singled and stole second. The steal paid off almost immediately when Gio singled and Dyson scored. The Royals have adjusted their base stealing and now feel they have the right guys stealing in better situations.

Sixth inning: The wrong guy stole in the wrong situation. (Actually, that’s inaccurate, but I couldn’t resist the line.) With Eric Hosmer at the plate and the count 3-2, Yuniesky Betancourt took off for second base. Hosmer said after the game that it wasn’t a straight steal. The runner starts because the hitter is either going to walk, put the ball in play or strike out. A strikeout will often require a breaking pitch, and that puts the odds in the runner’s favor.—it takes longer for the pitch to get to home plate.

The one thing the runner can’t do is get picked off. Betancourt got picked off. He did not make sure Milone was going to the plate. And then — just to make it look really bad — Yuni didn’t slide at second base.

Eighth inning: With the Royals leading 2-0, Mike Moustakas came out to play third base, and Betancourt was shifted to second. Despite the fact that Johnny Giavotella had a good day defensively, making at least three outstanding plays (by my count), the Royals feel that this alignment makes them better on the defensive side of the ball.

After the game, I asked Ned Yost whether he figured left-handed pitcher Tommy Milone was done (he was) and Moustakas would get to hit against a righty leading off the eighth (he did). Ned said it didn’t matter. The Royals had a lead, and Yost needed to protect it with his best defense. So, of course, Yuniesky immediately made an error at second base. By my count, which could be off, the Royals have made six errors at second base since Chris Getz got hurt.

Hosmer started a nice double play — it didn’t hurt that Oakland’s Kila Ka’aihue was running — to cover the error and end the threat.

Mitch Maier

You might think playing baseball once in a blue moon would be difficult — and you’d be right. Mitch Maier told me it is easier to keep his defense going than his offense. Apparently, facing coaches throwing batting practice at 3:40 in the afternoon does not completely prepare you for major-league pitchers dealing the hard stuff at 7:10 that evening.

Mitch says he tries to find some way to contribute every time he gets on the field. His timing may be off at the plate, but if he can help on defense or on the base paths or in any other phase of the game, he feels OK about making a positive contribution to the team.

I’ve been told that it’s hard to be a leader when you’re not a starter. Maybe so, but it appears you can still be a role model.

Correlation is not causation, but …

According to my scorebook, since Alex Gordon got moved to the leadoff spot, he has gone 10 for 28, walked four times and hit five doubles. Heck, even if I’ve counted wrong, that’s pretty good hitting. I asked him whether hitting leadoff changed anything, and Gordon said only the first at-bat.

In the game’s first at-bat, Alex knows the pitcher is going to come right at him (you don’t want to walk the first hitter of the game) and knows the pitcher is going to come after him with fastballs (you don’t want to show your off-speed stuff until you have to).

I asked Gordo whether he takes the first pitch of the game, and he said not every time. He has to swing once in a while to keep the pitchers honest.

Comments

Thayne Griffin
1 year ago

I’d say Vin earned himself another start today.

I’d also say our “defensive substitution” with the yunigma didn’t work so well.

And a fantastic play from Gordon - I was thinking at the time he might want to let it drop, but he proved me wrong!

Kudos to whoever commented about Hos’ legkick being much higher this year; he eliminates it and has had a nice last few games.
Terry Payne
1 year ago

Lee, are stats kept for the number of times a team fails to get a runner home from 3rd with less than two outs? If so, the Royals must surely lead the league in that category.

Also, I always thought Betancourt was a lackadaisacal fielder and I was sorry the team re-acquired him. The last two days have proved me right. He can make the spectacular play, but gets lazy on the routine. I also think he’s a hacker, rather than a hitter with a plan. Can we just give him back to Milwaukee and recall Falu?
Scott Mall
1 year ago

What happens when Getz comes back? It doesn’t seem to make much sense to keep Betancourt and Gio, but if they move Betancourt they don’t have a utility infielder. I wouldn’t think Betancourt helped himself with games like today. I can’t see it helping Gio’s development to send him back down.
Thayne Griffin
1 year ago

Also, one negative I noticed about Mazzaro was when he had hitters in 2 strike counts, he couldn’t finish them off. Many times it seemed like they battled back and fouled off many pitches, inflating his PC.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I’d say Vin earned himself another start today.”

Agree. Fastball ranged between 91 and 93, about 2/3rds of his pitches were down, and he got a little lucky on ones he left up and over, but earned another chance.

“I also think he’s a hacker, rather than a hitter with a plan.”

That’s the history, but this year he’s not striking out much and he’s walking as much as he strikes out.

“What happens when Getz comes back?”

If Gio is hitting and today was the start of a little more competent glove work, Getz goes down and plays some SS and 3B as well as 2B to give him some utility chops.

“Many times it seemed like they battled back and fouled off many pitches, inflating his PC.”

That’s that “2-strike” adjustment some hitters make, hit pretty much flat-footed with a short, slappy stroke at an expanded ‘zone.
Thayne Griffin
1 year ago

I know it’s that approach, but it didn’t seem like he got many swings and misses all game. Assuming that is typical for him over his career?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Maz isn’t a big whiff guy, more of an Adcock/Mendoza sinkerballer who gets bunches of grounders. Of the new guys, Will Smith with that nasty curve is probably most likely to fan a few. Today his slider had four whiffs, his change and two-seamer none, but he threw the change for a strike 7 of 10 times, the FT 25 of 50, and slider 26 of 36. Here’s Brooks’ charts:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=06&day=03&year=2012&game=gid20120603oakmlbkcamlb1/&prevGame=gid20120603oakmlbkcamlb1/&prevDate=0603&pitchSel=476570.xml
Curtis Ruder
1 year ago

Frankly, I don’t understand how Betancourt has a job in the major leagues. His statistics are terrible offensively and defensively, basically across the board. And aside from Neifi, I can’t remember a player who looks like he cares less than him. I know at some level that can’t be true - nobody makes it to the minor leagues without thousands of hours working on his game, let alone the majors. I cringe everytime he comes to bat, and I cringe everytime a ball is hit in his direction.

With most decisions I disagree with, I can at least understand the other side. But Betancourt in the big leagues leaves me cold. And if we should have to pay to see Gordon make spectacular plays, we should get a refund for having to sit through Yuni’s appearances.
Luke Healy
1 year ago

i also wonder about the statistics for the royals with runners scoring from 2nd with no outs, and 3rd with one out. talking about small ball, it seems like some of the fundamentals here for the royals have really been lacking.

they were fortunate to get a win today after going 1-10 with runners in scoring position, AND not manufacturing runs well all (other than the one off dyson’s stolen base).

but a win is a win, and we needed to win this series at home against the a’s.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Luke, Tommy Milone had a little something to do with the inefficiency. Oakland seems to have some decent pitching.

“but a win is a win”

Yep.
Tony Helfrich
1 year ago

I’ve been against many of the bunts but the A’s bunt made sense due to score and most importantly the hitter up, who has been struggling. In the end, though, it still gave the Royals an out which helps settle a wobbly pitcher. That is why I wouldn’t do that befor the the 7th unless its a very weak hitter coming up.

And, I agree Yuni needs to go.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

For those who wonder about umpires and strike zones, here’s today’s ‘zone, nice and wide:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/szoneCDB.php?pitchSel=all&game=gid20120603oakmlbkcamlb1/&innings=yyyyyyyyy&stype=&sptype=1&hsize=700&vsize=500&reParsed=0&extraStr=|06/03/2012|Oakland%20Athletics%20@%20Kansas%20City%20Royals
Scott Boden
1 year ago

I was at the game today and the Gordon play happened right in front of me. I couldn’t believe the throw. If Offensive numbers were not a part of the gold glove award (as they seem to be now), he should be a hands down gold glove for the first half of the season.

By the way, I have not read enough cudos for Pena placing himself correctly and holding onto the ball. He has had past issues with this so nice job Pena.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Luke and Terry -

The Royals are 49/96 this year at scoring a runner who reaches third with less than 2 outs. That’s 51%, right at the AL and MLB averages.

The Royals were doing poorly in the clutch statistics early in the year, but those numbers have reverted to the mean. We’re still producing fewer runs than you’d expect given our hitting though. My feeling is that results from too much small ball (trading outs for bases) and our very sloppy base running in general (near the bottom on the league in stolen base percentage, most times picked out, fewest times taking two bases on a single and three bases on a double, etc).

I hope that Lee is right that they’ve got a new stolen base approach. I’d like to see Dyson, Mitch, Cain and Escobar run more, and just about everyone else run less.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“My feeling is that results from too much small ball (trading outs for bases)”

And maybe having three of the Big Ballers slumping for much of the season? If Hoz, Alex, and Frenchy were producing last year’s power and production numbers, there would probably be much less need for small ball. Frenchy left seven runners on base today.
Donald Wilson
1 year ago

I am convinced that Betancourt has something on Ned Yost. That is the ONLY reason I can figure out why he took Gio out and replaced him with Yuni. Gio was having a good night and if I was him I would be completely confused and upset. Even before Yuni had that error (which I think I could have even caught) I was yelling that it was the most STUPID, IDIOTIC, IGNORANT decision I have seen in quite some time. Yep, what ever it is - Yuni has got to have something on Ned that he doesn’t want someone else to know. There can’t be another reason for this classless less than amature move!
Larry Tindle
1 year ago

I like Gio, lets get that out of the way first. However he has had his trouble at second this year with balls off the heal of his glove late in games and even a pop fly off the head. Yuni in my opinion does a much better job turning the double play when he is the pivot man. Neither is perfect so take your choice. My first choice for defense woudl be Getz. Not flashy and may not make spectacular plays but makes the routine ones and that’s what you need most late in the game.
Jay Hall
1 year ago

Chris Getz is the best fielding option we have at second base right now. I think that’s pretty clear.

However, what is becoming more clear is that Yuni and Gio are basically even as second basemen in the field. Gio is not good, but Yuni has proven time and again that he has no lateral quickness to his left and he’s just as likely as Gio to boot a routine one. If Gio doesn’t get at least two thirds of the playing time until Getz is healthy that’s a mistake.

On to other topics. The Royals lineup is starting to solidify itself. I didn’t agree with sitting Moose yesterday because he gives our lineup some punch that Yuni just can’t offer. I know there was a lefty on the hill, but if Moose is going to be one of our key cogs, he has to hit lefties. Still, seeing Hosmer start to stroke the ball is a good sign. Gordon warming up makes it even better. Now if Butler snaps out of this mini slump, we could be ready to roll.

Finally, is it possible that when Sanchez is ready to come back that Hochevar is the odd man out? I doubt that happens in reality, but looking at the pitching right now, if Smith throws well today I’d say he’s earned himself another start. Mazzaro has been solid in both his starts this year. Paulino is the ace of the staff and Chen is the second best option. Hochevar is the one that we haven’t been able to figure out. If he struggles in his next start he should probably be the one to go to the pen as a long man until either Smith or Mazzaro is ineffective. He won’t be, but it would send a message that every position must be earned.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Finally, is it possible that when Sanchez is ready to come back that Hochevar is the odd man out?”

Sanchez got blown up in Omaha yesterday.

“If he struggles in his next start he should probably be the one to go to the pen as a long man”

That has been suggested around here.

“it would send a message that every position must be earned.”

Yep. I think Luke will be fine in his next start, just because that’s his pattern. Those who site his career ERA miss that he gets it by alternating 13.5 ERA games with 2.0 ERA games. Incredibly inconsistent. He’s about due for a couple of dominant performances.
Donald Wilson
1 year ago

I hardly ever miss watching a Royals game except lately I really don’t care if I watch when Hochaver is pitching. You already know the outcome - 1st inning, 30 pitches and at least 1 or 2 runs - 2nd, 3rd, 4th innings another 60 pitches and gone in the 5th. I’m sure he is a great guy but I wonder if he feels like backing up when he gets a paycheck! How much more string do we give this guy? Same ol story - great stuff but can’t locate. DUH! By now someone should see this as a pattern that isn’t likely to change!
Larry Tindle
1 year ago

I have no problem setting Moose once in a while. It is a long season. I never understood that until I fortunate enough to get season tickets. A 10 game home stand is very tiring and all I have to do is set for 3 hours and watch, then they leave town and play another 7 to 10 days. Most of the players probably put in 10 to 12 hours a day. Even when they “set” they still have to do all the other things they do each day. The team gets 1 day every 20 off.

Maybe Lee can do a bit on what the typical day is for a Major Leaguer.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“By now someone should see this as a pattern that isn’t likely to change!”

Luke’s pattern is inconsistency. So far this year, per Bill James’ Game Score, he has the best game by a starter at 75 and the worst game as a starter at 1. After a below average game and a horrible game the pattern suggests a couple of good games, one of them very good.
Kim Stevenson
1 year ago

Larry - a “day in the life” would be a great article. I would be interested in reading that also.

Glas to see Hoz swinging and getting actual hits. That homerun was beautiful.
Steven A Hurst
1 year ago

To me, Gio, Yuni are just about the same kind of guy defensively. Makes the great play, then muffs the easy ones.

That said, there is no excuse for Yuni not sliding at 2nd when he got picked off.

& I disagree with whoever said that it seems that Yuni doesn’t care… he looked VERY embarased to me.
Gary Chesney
1 year ago

Since the royals seem willing to play Myers at about any position, has there been any talk about trying second base?
Donovan Weber
1 year ago

was watching the game here in SF listening to the A’s commentators. And they said “thats why he won a gold glove, and with that play he probably just won another”. that is how impactful the play was.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Gary, yes. One particularly annoying commentator even suggested giving Clint Robinson a shot at it.
Bob Forer
1 year ago

Gordon’s catch and throw was unreal. His momentum was taking him away from the plate, and I think many outfielders would have taken the time to square up in order to get off a strong and accurate throw.

Instead, Alex got off a quick “toss” more than a throw. Appeared to be more wrist than arm. What I find amazing is that not only was the throw accurate, but was pretty strong considering his position and movement.

And Pena did a fine job blocking the plate.

You are right on, Lee. It was one amazing play, and was definitely a key to the win.
Bob Forer
1 year ago

Scott: I am jealous. Would have loved to have seen that play in person. Lee is spot on. I am sure just watching that one play would have been worth the price of admission. And I agree with you entirely on your assessment of Pena. Last year, he caught a little flak for shying away from possible collisions at the plate.

Not this time. He was a good foot in front of the plate and didn’t even blink as the throw was coming in and the runner barreling down directly at him. The play was as “bang-bang” as it gets.

Smiley faces, shiny foil stars, and an “atta boy” are in order for both of the guys.
Jared Dull
1 year ago

Yuni’s not a bad player. And he cares. Some guys just don’t seem like they do. Yuni also seems to be a pretty good club house guy as well as a veteran for a very young infield. Plus he can play three infield positions.

Hes never had a very good OBP, but he’s a good hitter, especially with RISP. He will drive in some runs for ya. Last I checked, he was a huge part of the only two runs scored on Friday night!

His fielding, on the other hand, has always been suspect. He has a tendency to botch a routine play like he did on Sunday. However, the Royals seem to like his experience over Gio in a close game. Either way, when Getz gets back, he’s the one at second in a close game, hands down.

Gio clearly has range and ability at second. It’s just a matter of being consistent. Hopefully he gets there because he’s a gifted hitter. By far the most gifted of the four second basemen.

Choosing between Yuni and Gio is gonna be a really tough call when Getz gets back. I’m guessing Yuni gets it because of his ability to play multiple positions. But Gio continues to impress me. He just needs to work on his fielding and he will be a fine MLB player for a long time!

As far as Will Myers, he seems to be forcing his way to the majors like Hoz did last year. Although, it’s gonna be tougher for him to force his way into that outfield than it was for Hoz to force his way into first ahead of Billy and Kila.

If he does get the call up, what do you do with Cain? He’s either a back up or they make a trade with Frenchy or Gordon. Both are really well respected players on the team. It’s a tough situation, but a good problem to have.

Who knows? Maybe Cain doesn’t pan out, but how can you know unless he’s out there playing?
James Robbins
1 year ago

“Cliff Pennington bunted the runners over (clearly the Royals’ Ned Yost isn’t the only manager who finds the sacrifice bunt useful on occasion).”

Yeah? How’d that work out for them?
Lee Judge
1 year ago

I wrote a piece about pre-game routine which I’ve never used (I think) letting fans know what goes on at the stadium before they arrive.

I can post that soon.

I’m not usre if there’s a “typical” day for a major leaguer. Probably depends a great deal on whether he’s single or has a family, but I can ask around.
Jay Hall
1 year ago

James,

Excellent point on the sac bunt.

Here’s the thing if you have a weak offense like the A’s do.

At the time of the bunt, the A’s were down 1-0. That means they need 2 runs to win the game. They have runners on first and second and nobody out. With a weak offense you can’t assume that 1) you will have a better opportunity to score than you do right now or 2) that the next two hitters will be able to score both runners to put you ahead. Yes, you can now tie the game without a hit, but for an offense as punchless as the A’s offense has been, giving away an out decreases the chances you will actually win the game, even if you do tie it for the time being.

That inning was another example of why playing for 1 run early in the game is a recipe for a loss.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“giving away an out decreases the chances you will actually win the game,”

Is it “giving” away an out or trading an out for two bases? Had Alex and Brayan not made web-gem worthy plays, the score would be tied with a runner on 3rd. Just a matter of playing the odds and Gordon and Pena beat them.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

If I’d had more time before I left work I would’ve written what Jim wrote: the bunt was laid down to give the A’s two shots to take the lead with their two best hitters at the plate (Reddick and Cespedes).

It took one of the best plays we’ll see all year to prevent the A’s from tying the game.

I realize some people will never be persuaded about the worth of a well-timed bunt and that’s not my intention.

If you don’t believe in bunting, don’t bunt whenever you’re managing a team. But many major league managers do find the bunt worthwhile and my only point was it’s not just Ned Yost—he’s got pelnty of company in disagreeing with the metrics crowd.

(Speaking of which: I’m here at the park and the Minnesota Twins are on the field practicing bunting. Probably their pitchers getting ready for inter-league play.)
Bob Forer
1 year ago

I believe in old school baseball. While sabermetics has its place and is a fine tool, numbers cannot replace human strategic planning. I think the decision to sacrifice was sound, especially, as Lee points out, with their two best hitters coming up. A hit probably scores two runs, and gives the Athletics a one run lead. Going from one down to one up would have definitely changed the complexion of the game.

Problem with sabermetics is that its general rules and principles, e.g., “a sac bunt gives away an out and should be avoided at all costs,” ignore the unique circumstances in which those rules are to be applied.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Bob, good point. One Latin phrase that I’ve never seen cited by the sabr crowd is “ceteris paribus”*. Unless a grand average stat can be weighted back down to a specific circumstance, it’s just history, not prophecy.

*”All other things being equal or held constant.”
Jay Hall
1 year ago

“The worth of a well-timed bunt.”

The key is timing. Most managers agree that bunting when down several runs is foolish because it gives away an out when you need multiple runs.

However, early in the game you HAVE NO IDEA how many runs you will need to actually win the game. The A’s needed AT LEAST 2 runs in the situation they were in on Sunday to win the game. Yet they played for 1 run (the most likely outcome with runners on second and third with one out).

In baseball the most likely outcome, regardless of hitter, is an out. Because of that, the A’s were betting that they could score 1 run on an out. That’s a sound strategy if its the winning run (late in the game) or maybe even the go ahead run (in the middle innings). However, playing for a tie in the fifth inning on the road ignores the fact that your opponent is going to still have FIVE more chances to beat you. The tying run in the middle innings isn’t worth giving away an out (and a better chance at scoring multiple runs).

If that run was so valuable managers would be more likely to employ other late game strategies early in the ballgame like pinch hitting and pinch running. They don’t because there is still too much baseball to be played. And yet they give away an out anyway with a bunt.

The logic simply does not match. If you are playing for one run because the game is a pitcher’s duel, pinch hitting and pinch running should be in play. If there’s too much game left for those strategies, it’s probably too early for a sac bunt.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“pinch hitting and pinch running”

A matter of weighting and defensive replacements available, even the handedness of pitchers and hitters.

“However, playing for a tie in the fifth inning on the road ignores the fact that your opponent is going to still have FIVE more chances to beat you.”

But accepts the fact that you have four more chances to get another run, easier to do than get two runs. As neither team showed much sign of offense, perhaps due to a horizontally stretched strike zone, one run was important at the moment. In economic terms it took a “Black Swan”, the Gordon-Pena plays, to defeat the strategy.

“And yet they give away an out anyway with a bunt.”

If the bunt fails it’s a giveaway, if it succeeds it’s an exchange, two bases for one out. There are 27 outs in a game, so unless a team generates more than 54 total bases in a game it seems a plus trade. 54 bases is roughly 13.5 runs, slightly less for the Royals and A’s, slightly more for the most efficient teams, per Martin Manley’s recent study.
Bob Forer
1 year ago

“It’s just history, not prophecy.” Profound AND succinct. Nicely put, Jim.

Jay: There’s a big difference between calling for a sac bunt with no outs and a runner on second, as opposed to no outs and runners on first and second.

In the first scenario, yes, you are hoping that an out will score a run. But that was not the case here.

Yes, the As expected to score a run on the out. But I think their primary thinking was not hoping to score one run on an out, but instead, two runs on a single, and at a very minimum, one run on an out.

Down 1-0, they needed at least two for a win. And with their best two hitters coming up in an otherwise weak hitting lineup, the move, imho, made sense.

It also made sense from a sabermetic standpoint as well.

According to run expectancy tables, the average number of runs scored with runners on first and second and no out is 1.556. With runners on second and third and one out, the average goes down very slightly, to 1.447. a decrease of about 7.5 percent.

However, the chance of scoring a single run in the inning increased by 8.5 percent after the sac bunt.

Without considering the surrounding circumstances, the choice to bunt or not to bunt is six on one hand, half-dozen on the other. However, when you factor in that your two best hitters were due up, I think the bunt was fine strategy.

Sure, the As needed two to win. But to get to two, you have to first have one. the As were thinking one run is nice, but two runs are better. Let’s go for it. Now, if there would have only been only a runner on second base, different story, and the bunt would have been ill advised.