Games » Cleveland Indians
May30Chen figures it out
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
When Bruce Chen was named the Royals opening day starter, there were people who ridiculed the idea. I know — I was one of them. Bruce Chen does not have top-of-the-line stuff. Why would you make him your No. 1 pitcher? I’m starting to think it was because Bruce Chen has a top-of-the-line mental approach.
Look at this game: Chen did not have his best stuff and he was getting squeezed by home-plate umpire Dan Bellino. As mentioned before, Bruce needs to get the pitches on the corners to have success. An umpire who forces Bruce into the middle of the zone can get Bruce slapped around pretty good.
That’s the way the day started, but somehow Chen remained calm and composed and figured out a way to stay in the game for five innings, earning a win. Chen isn’t going to win any Cy Youngs (Bruce, sorry if I’m the first one to tell you that), but he knows how to pitch, makes the most of what he has and helps the younger pitchers make the most of what they have.
Making Bruce the opening day starter meant he would face the other teams’ No. 1 guys for the first few weeks of the season. Even if he took a loss, Chen has the attitude to absorb the disappointment without coming apart at the seams.
Gutty performances like this are why you want Bruce Chen around.
Game notes
• Alex Gordon hit leadoff. Since moving to the 1-hole four games ago, Alex is 7-for-17. Small sample size and hitting leadoff is only one of the factors involved, but I’m guessing he’ll stay there a while. On the other hand, Ned Yost does not consult with me before making out the lineup.
• Coming into this game, Gordon’s on-base-percentage was .092 higher than his batting average. So Gordon’s still been taking his walks.
• In the bottom of the first, Jason Kipnis stole second and then third. At that point the Royals had given up 14 stolen bases out of 14 stolen base attempts on this road trip. I’m guessing they’ll address the issue during this next home stand.
• Second inning: Michael Brantley singles and Shelley Duncan goes first to third. Jarrod Dyson comes up throwing, but allows Brantley to advance to second base on the throw. Keeping the double play in order is a big deal.
• The Royals score five of their runs on two-out hits: the hardest kind of RBI.
• With two outs in the fifth inning, Johnny Giavotella makes his third error of the road trip, dropping a pop fly that hits him in the head. Gio also had two hits, walked and scored a run.
• A phrase you hear all the time out at the park is “both sides of the ball.” Fans tend to concentrate on the offensive side (there are more and better numbers to look at), pros consider both sides. If you’re driving in one and letting in two, you’re not helping the team. Guys who play poor defense have to hit better than the guys who are good with the leather.
• Giavotella’s play costs Bruce Chen a half dozen more pitches and (theoretically) allows the Indians to get their three- and four-hole hitters one more plate appearance in the ninth.
• Both Giavotella and Brayan Pena got picked off base.
• In the sixth inning with a pitcher making his major-league debut on the mound—the same pitcher who hit a batter and walked two more to load the bases — Jeff Francoeur swung at the first pitch he saw. This can be considered dumb (why not let the kid pitch himself into more trouble) or smart (the bases are juiced, go for the kill). The conclusion you reach will probably be based on the results of the swing.
• Frenchy popped up. (I’m guessing it was a case of over-swinging, but if you give Jeff Francoeur the opportunity to be aggressive or passive, he’s usually going to be aggressive.)
• Chen finished his five innings, Tim Collins came in and got the Royals through the sixth and one out in the seventh and then Aaron Crow got the next two outs: Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Lopez. Duncan, the only other right-hander in the lineup was leading off the eighth. Manny Acta went with left-hander Lonnie Chisenhall, Ned countered with Jose Mijares (which is why it’s nice to have two lefties in the pen) and got the game to the ninth with a three-run lead.
• Use enough pitchers and you’ll eventually find someone who doesn’t have it and that may have been closer Jonathan Broxton. The tight strike zone did not help, but Broxton seemed to have problems of his own, eventually bringing the winning run to the plate by walking two batters.
• Jose Lopez hit the ball to Irving Falu (who had replaced Giavotella as a pinch runner) to end the game: a 4-6-3 double play.
• The Royals have not had a losing road trip and got another four shutout innings from the pen. I imagine that makes for a better plane trip home.
Royals Doug Sisson explains leading off at third to Lee Judge
Kansas City Royals coach Doug Sisson explains to the Star's Lee Judge how players lead off at third base. May 21, 2012 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Chen
Francoeur
Gordon
Joel Kallem
11 months, 3 weeks agoCongrats to the Royals for a winning road trip and a winning May. Now we need to have a winning homestand against the A’s and Twins and close in on .500.
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 3 weeks agoHelluva series win. Hopefully we can win the next few series to climb back to .500. There’s no way the ChiSox can keep up their winning pace they are on. The amount of errors we are making right now is unacceptable though, it will cost us more games in the future.
And I want so badly for Gio to get his glove figured out because I want someone to lock down 2B, but the more I watch him, the more I doubt it will ever happen.
Jared Dull
11 months, 3 weeks agoA winning May! Someone pinch me! That makes me cautiously optimistic the Royals aren’t out of the division race. These aren’t your older brothers Royals. Those team’s arrows were pointing down at this point in the season. I see the Royals getting better as the season progresses.
I know Billy Butler has cooled off a little, but unless he goes into a really bad funk, which is unlikely for him, he should hands down be the Royals all star. He deserves it. He’s been the only thing close to consistent for this team for a while now. And on top of that he’s having his most productive start of his career. That makes him a lock in my eyes. I know a lot of people wanna hear Mooooouse at the game, but he hasn’t even proven himself over a full season yet. Big Bill deserves it. And Lee, I think your season leaders list backs that up!
Aaron Bailey
11 months, 3 weeks agoJust to play devil’s advocate, Jose Lopez swung on the first pitch in the 9th when Broxton was clearly struggling to throw a strike. I imagine it’s the idea that the pitcher HAS to throw a strike at the point, so it probably is like a 3-0 green light situation. Of course, neither guy got a hit, but it’s not just Frenchy who’s over-aggressive.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks agoJoel: As I keep saying, give them decent starting pitching and this looks like a pretty good team.
Thayne: I agree—defense is one of this team’s strengths and they can’t keep making errors at this rate and stay competitive. Nobody’s told me anything, but don’t be surprised if they want Getz back at second once he’s healthy.
Jared: The other guy who comes to mind as a possible All-Star selection is Alcides Escobar, but he’s not beating out Jeter, especially when Jeter is playing well. But give Billy credit: he’s leading the team in points (according to Ron Polk’s system) and only has six on the defensive side of the ball. Esky has 74. That means Billy has had another terrific year on offense.
Aaron: Absolutely. It’s easy to focus on your team, its players and manager and complain about their lack of perfection. But other teams have many of the same problems. Nobody’s perfect—not even the fans.
John Wilson
11 months, 3 weeks agoBruce Chen totally has my respect as a pitcher. His pitches are below average speed which means he has to pitch, not throw. And he has done it consistantly for the Royals. Absolutely amazing to watch!
Larry Tindle
11 months, 3 weeks agoI guess after the ninth inning I can cancel my stress test at the doctors. If my heart can take that it must be ok.
Bob Forer
11 months, 3 weeks agoLee, In the top of the fourth with two out Escobar took off for third on the pitch that Gordon sent flying for a run scoring double. Question: Is there any upside, at all, in attempting to steal third in that situation. Even if Alex takes the pitch and Esky swipes the base, it still takes a hit to score a run (plus, of course, the unlikely possibility of an error, passed ball or wild pitch). It would seem to me that the risk of ending the inning by being thrown out at third isn’t worth the gamble, unless, of course, its a gimme, but with Esky, who is by no means slow, it certainly wasn’t a gimme.
Phil Schreck
11 months, 3 weeks agoI really like they way the Royals are coming from behind and getting the two out hits. I REALLY like the fact that our boys knocked the Indians out of first place two nights ago and then beat ‘em again today. Cleveland is becoming my least favorite team in baseball.
Jared Dull
11 months, 3 weeks agoEsky’s having a great year, no doubt. Everyone knows about his talent at short, but the dude can hit, which doesn’t surprise me. He has a really nice swing. He’s built on last year and seems to have bought into the Seitzer way.
I’m still gonna have to go with Billy though. Not only because of his production this year, but because of his career production along with his high class character. It’s a sentimental thing, especially because the game is in KC.
How about both Butler AND Esky! It’s kind of sad we just automatically assume only one Royal can go!
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“No, I’m talking about adding multiple front-line starters who make this team truly a contender.”
So who do you trade and how much do you pay?
“Will the Royals ownership/management step up? It’s the biggest single question facing the Royals.”
It’s the biggest obsession of talk radio, some bloggers, and some fans. The reality is that #1 and ace starters are incredibly expensive and tend to be short-term rentals, which is why small market teams try to grow their own, not an easy task.
“if they’re serious about competing next year.”
They are competing this year, in spite of three starters plus the swing-man on the DL and Gordon, Hosmer, and Frenchy having slow starts. They’ve started winning recently simply because they’ve started scoring four or more runs a few times. Ask Baltimore and Cleveland, or maybe Texas how competitive the current team is.
John Wilson
11 months, 3 weeks agoEsky and Butler as All Stars would be nice but don’t forget our bullpen! Aaron Crow could make it back.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks agoBob: You’re right, stealing third with two outs needs to be a complete lock—at least most of the time.
Apparently, you see more of it in Fenway because the Green Monster’s so close, scoring from second on a hit isn’t a sure thing.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“I don’t know.”
Would you have traded Hosmer for Pineda? Would you have traded Escobar, Cain, Jeffress, and Odorizzi for two years of Greinke? There is enough recent experience in pitchers moving around to have some idea of what a #1 would cost.
“Like, between $20-35MM more, if they even want to catch up to the teams in similarly-sized markets’ talent and payrolls.”
That would get Greinke back and cripple any possibility of locking in our young players, so we would be in about the situation as Detroit, which is a couple of games ahead of us, or Milwaukee, which traded the farm to get two frontline starters, a quick visit to the playoffs, the same current record as the Royals, and Zack leaving next year. Tampa Bay has a lower payroll last I looked, using the same basic plan.
“But no team is competing when they’re 7 games under .500.”
And 7 games out of first in a weak division after recently taking series from the three division leaders. We seem to have different definitions of “competitive.
“But you’re going to have to give up value to get value, on the trade front.”
Absolutely. Who would you trade for a couple of years of James Shields? That is Tampa’s MO, trading established stars for a bunch of young players and prospects. They would probably take Myers, Odorizzi, and Hosmer to unload $21 million of contract over ‘13 and ‘14. That is how Tampa runs their small market franchise. Who would you give up for that stud pitcher? Devil is always in the details.
“scrap-heap-help like Paulino”
A #2 starter last year on 20 starts and a #2 this year on less than half the starts of his neighbors on fangraphs’ leader board.
“And when they do trade MLB-talent for other MLB talent (Melky for Sanchez…ouch)…well….”
I remember after last year when all the cool kids were predicting that Melky would regress to the mean and that we should trade him for an SP and to open a spot for Lorenzo Cain. Injuries happen. Ask the Yankees about their trade of Montero, a widely acclaimed brilliant move at the time. Hindsight is always 20-20, but getting a starter with stuff coming off an injury season and getting ‘Zo Cain on the field seemed a very good idea and may yet be. Sanchez has one more rehab start and Cain is in Surprise working his way back from the flexor injury.
Good posts, thanks.
Jared Dull
11 months, 3 weeks agoJohn, Noooooooooooo! Not another bullpen guy! Crow again? U have to be kidding me right?
I’ve seen enough of Soria, Crow and wait for it….. Mike MacDougal! Please not this time! Not when it’s in KC!
Brian Grant
11 months, 3 weeks agoThe Royals will address the base stealing problem when Salvador Perez returns behind the dish.
Jim Brown
11 months, 3 weeks agoI like Johnny Giovatella a lot. But watching him on this trip, I understand the Royals concern about his defense.If they keep Gio in KC will they move Colon up to Omaha to set up a competition between those 2 for the second base job?
Jay Hall
11 months, 3 weeks agoIt’s obvious I am a big Giavotella supporter on here. He is, in my opinion, the best offensive option we have at second base. In fact, if not for his defense, there would be absolutely no excuse for him not being our everyday second baseman. In spite of his defense, there are still valid arguments that he should be the everyday 2B.
However, his defense is bad. He doesn’t have soft hands and his footwork is poor. He lets the ball get too far into his body too often, which allows him to get tied up on ground balls.
If only the Royals knew of someone, maybe someone local with ties to the team, perhaps even someone that had played defense at a high level, it’d be a bonus if he were a second baseman during their playing career, who could have worked with and mentored Gio on the defensive side of things to see if Gio’s defense would improve. That’s just wishful thinking now, I guess.
Nonetheless, Gio’s defense is bad. But it’s not going to get any better with him sitting on the bench, whether that be in Kansas City or Omaha. Play the guy. Have him taking extra reps. Do what it takes because if he can play even slightly below average defense he is a value to this team because of his bat at a low offense position.
Kurt Vancil
11 months, 3 weeks agoI agree that Butler and Esky are the leaders for making the All Star game with Moose right behind if he can get on another hot streak and keep playing great D. I also really, really do not want a relief pitcher to be our representative - although a great reliever is better than… Mark Redman - I have heard Hudler mention Broxton from time to time as an option and I really hope not - unless it somehow increases his trade value. His ERA looks impressive and he has succeeded 10 out of 12 times, but man-oh-man do I get nervous when he comes out and is not throwing strikes. His WHIP is certainly not too impressive for a closer and his strikeout numbers aren’t too impressive either.
I think Mark and Jim both make very good points about the nature of this organization. I tend to side more with Mark because I think the team can spend money to acquire good enough pitching. We do necessarily need to get the best pitcher available or give out a crazy Barry Zito-esque contract and hamper out ability to sign in-house players but I think we could make some smart moves and take a gamble and trade some prospects. I am glad we are holding on to Myers but we could have gotten a great player a couple years ago for Montgomery or Lamb. We are going to have to start using our farm club to acquire talent that makes us more competitive. Hopefully though we do it smartly though and dont make a trade like the Indians did for Ubaldo.
I agree with Mark that we cannot just hide behind the fact that we are a small market team forever. We have made strides recently and have shown that we can spend money - not necessarily on what we need (Jose Guillen…). Of course we still need to have top of the line players want to play in KC and that may be the biggest struggle.
With all that said I hope we can have a winning June and that a team wants to give us a top level pitcher for Yuni.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“The Rays, I’ll concede, are a great model for the Royals. The problem is, they draft, develop and keep pitching infinitely better than the Royals do.”
Great post, Mark.
Greatest advantage that Tampa’s current GM had over GMDM when both took over struggling franchises was that the Royals were in much worse shape talent-wise than the Rays, who had an ace and a couple of productive players already there and a well stocked farm system. Tampa was probably five or six years ahead of the Royals at that time on talent and the minor leagues.
“So what we’re left with, to bring this full circle, is your original question: what are YOU going to do?”
Tampa Bay would trade Alex as soon as he starts hitting again and Billy would have been gone over the winter. What we are going to do is get Cain and Perez back and probably call Odorizzi up after the ASB and make a good run at the central title. Detroit’s great rotation isn’t dominating the league and I think they’re over-using Verlander and he’ll go down this year. Cleveland’s great rotation hasn’t been real consistent, and the White Sox are mere mortals. Even with our injuries we are competitive and our biggest problem right now is our hitting, not our pitching, and the hitting is starting to heat up a little and team wins a little.
“is it too much to ask them to spend like the Brewers,”
How’s that working for them? Brewers traded the farm and broke the bank for one playoff series, will lose Greinke and Marcum after this year, and will be irrelevant for several years, not unlike what happened after Mr. K traded the farm and broke the bank trying to get a last championship.
I would mention that the main reason the Royals’ major league payroll is low is that they are the youngest team in the game. Payroll has been rising with extensions and a lot of money has been spent in the minors and international markets, although the recent CBA looks to end the one advantage the team had for exploiting young talent, so that will free up some money while choking off the method used to get Duffy and Myers.
This winter the Royals will face a choice among more extensions, trading the farm, or giving Zack $100 million for four years. Since my view is “Mission: Dynasty”, I wish Zack well in Anaheim and look forward to Wil Myers and JaKKKKe at the K next year.
Jim Wilson
11 months, 3 weeks agoMark, I agree with you generally but the time to spend and trade is just now coming over the horizon. Despite the marketing (which is what they’re paid to do), optimistic expectations put the Royals around .500 this year. More typical/objective expectations put them below that. The Royals are “competitive” this year in the sense that they are fun to watch — it’s always more fun to watch hopeful stars of the future develop rather than players keeping spots warm for future talent in the minors. The Royals needed this year to see what they’ve got at the MLB level, give Monty another year, etc., etc. before they go shopping. And they need to let some players develop that might be used in a trade (Jim F. has mentioned Clint Robinson numerous times for example). I have never understood the argument that the Royals should have already tied themsevlves up with expensive long-term contracts on older, risky free agents when they were not likely to be a playoff team and the acqusitions might block young talent or use limited resources that might better be spent elsewhere. GMDM has said from day one that we can’t have enough pitching. And he’s drafted it, found it discarded in the recycling bin and acquired it in the FA market (Meche). I give him credit for that. There’s a lot of luck involved with developing pitching and the Royals’ luck has not been good. To me, it’s starting to become clear that we don’t have the starting pitching talent in the organization that we need to be a playoff-caliber team (in our own right, not because all of the other teams in our division might suck) in 2013-14. Dayton will have to make some moves over the next 14 months (and spend some money) to get us there. But, again, I don’t understand the criticism that he hasn’t already made some big moves. Right now I believe we’re 10th in the AL in runs scored per game and I don’t see any obvious moves that could/should have been made on the offensive side (that wouldn’t have blocked Cain, Myer, Gio, Colon) so a FA pitcher, or even two, (looking at who was available)probably wouldn’t have changed things that much.
Jim Matthews
11 months, 3 weeks agoNone of the three teams mentioned (Red, Brewers, Twins) have gone outside their organization to spend money on top level free agents. They’ve locked up a few of their own guys, but they’ve also let people leave. The Brewers went all in last year trading for Marcum and Greinke knowing Fielder was going to be gone at the end of the year and now those two are free agents after this year.
These are popular moves on talk radio and internet blogs, but bad examples of how to build orgainzationss
Jared Dull
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F, yeah Tampa is a good model for the Royals, as are the Twins.
Of course building from within is essential for a small market team, but so is balanced spending. There is much less room for error for small market teams. Overspending for washed up veterans like Jose Guillen and Gil Meche (although much respect to him for giving up his contract) hurt franchises like the Royals more than they hurt the almighty large market teams.
Until this year, I’ve always been amazed over the last several years looking at the salaries of the twins compared to the Royals. The Twins weren’t spending much more, they were just giving the fair value to each player. The guys that were producing were getting paid.
With the Royals, most of the production was coming from the lower paid guys and the higher paid veterans were a big waste of money. That’s a killer for small market teams. I can see why the Royals would be reluctant to sign any big name veterans considering the debacles of the past.
Small market GMs like Dayton Moore have a much more difficult job than the large market GMs, no doubt about it!
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“If only the Royals knew of someone, maybe someone local with ties to the team”
Jay, appreciate the props for Mr. White, but I doubt even he could fix Gio, whose problems look to me to be more physical than a matter of coaching. Gio has short arms, isn’t particularly quick and agile, isn’t limber, and doesn’t seem to have a quick jump on the ball. Part of that may be the body type, part may be that I’ve heard that he’s a gym rat, heavy on weights in the off-season, which tends to bind muscles up and restrict the kind of fluidity that someone like Getz or Escobar have.
“Overspending for washed up veterans like Jose Guillen and Gil Meche (although much respect to him for giving up his contract) hurt franchises like the Royals more than they hurt the almighty large market teams.”
Absolutely, Jared, but this gets us into another responsibility of the GM, trying to pump the fan base. At that time, overpaying for Guillen and Meche was about the only way to get a name KC fans had even heard of to sign with a very bad team with no hope in the foreseeable future and then, as now, a vocal segment of the base was demanding that ownership “step up” and spend some money. I think Meche worked out well, in production and in his influence on Zack, but Guillen was a waste of money in hindsight.
“Small market GMs like Dayton Moore have a much more difficult job than the large market GMs, no doubt about it!”
That is why Dayton Moore is the most interesting employee of the team to me. I try to get inside his head and understand the challenges and opportunities that he faces. I’ve had three major disagreements with him; Guillen, Meche, and Yuni. He was right on Meche and I think I was right on the other two, but I at least understand the pressure to make a move that netted Guillen and that the coaches thought they could fix Yuni, so even though I disagreed I don’t think he was necessarily wrong in his efforts.
“But, again, I don’t understand the criticism that he hasn’t already made some big moves”
I don’t either. At the moment we are 8th in the AL in hitting, ahead of the Angels, Indians, and Tigers; we are 8th in pitching, ahead of the Indians; and 5th in fielding, ahead of the White Sox, Indians, and Tigers. Having lost three of the original rotation at various times and having three of the Big Ball sticks go limp for most of two months and we’re still hanging in there. As I don’t expect Hosmer and Gordon to stay pathetic for the rest of year and Frenchy is already heating up, I’m actually optimistic.
Great thread, guys. Thanks.
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 3 weeks agoWe can’t blame all of the lack of spending on GMDM though…he has to fit the spending into the budget given to him by Mr. Glass, so don’t put all of the blame on DM - I would say most fits on Glass’ lap.
However, the Yuni signing was an embarrassment and never should have been made - a waste of $2M.
Anthony L. Monley
11 months, 3 weeks agoI have this sneaking suspicion I’m going to see these same arguments (on both sides) in five years when KC is battling it out for 2nd place in the central.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoI like Gio and I want to see the Royals give him a real shot at 2B, but I think Hosmer might end up blocking him. Just like last year, all of the advanced defensive metrics continue to show Hosmer as a below average defender for his position.
There was some great work last winter breaking down play by play and determining that this is largely the result of poor positioning, but it doesn’t seem to be improving.
As a result, the Royals might not be able to give Gio a real chance because they’ll need a 2B who can cover for the lack of range at 1B. Obviously, Yuni is not the answer (there’s no reason to play Yuni over Gio), but I can see them going with Getz, even if Getz’s hitting continues to regress to his historical average.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“Just like last year, all of the advanced defensive metrics continue to show Hosmer as a below average defender for his position.”
I wouldn’t say “all”, simply because we don’t have access to the most advanced of metrics, FieldFX. The pie-slice metrics don’t like Hosmer and don’t even give much love to Escobar.
On the subject of Royals running, Martin Manley has a good series on it:
http://sportsinreview.com/blog/
Three parter, starts out as Yost to Blame, i think you’ll enjoy it and the site.
“the result of poor positioning”
Fielders are positioned according to how the hitter is to be pitched. If the pitcher misses the spot, the fielder is “out of position”. Not sure if the study was able to weight for that or was even aware of it. That study motivated my call for PIF, pitching independent fielding.
“the Royals might not be able to give Gio a real chance”
Not sure you can blame Gio’s self-beaning on Hosmer. All Gio has to do is hit enough to compensate for his glove. If he allows one base runner in two games over Getz, Gio hitting .400 would be a wash. If one in three, then .360 will do it.
“if Getz’s hitting continues to regress to his historical average.”
Gets back to weighting inflections. Still waiting for Chen to regress?
Jared Dull
11 months, 3 weeks agoThane, again if you use the Twins as a model for successful small market teams, it’s more about balance and getting fair value than it is about how much you spend. The Twins were phenomenal at this IMO.
I think it’s more of a credit to the Twins organization than a discredit to the Royals. Getting production for dollars is much easier said than done. And when you miss it hurts the small market teams much more than the big guys.
Jim, I understand he needs to fill the seats with compelling players but it is still a big risk. That’s why it’s great the guys that are filling the stands now are the home grown guys. It’s a really good thing.
And the “our time” campaign did a wonderful job of overselling it!
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“Jim, I understand he needs to fill the seats with compelling players but it is still a big risk.”
Jared, fortunately that time is past. Guillen and Meche can be seen as perhaps necessary PR bridges to Zack and Billy. Now, everyone knows of Hosmer and Moose and Big Billy and Alex, even crafty Master Chen, Danny, Tiny Tim, Aaron. Not sure I can remember anyone on GMDM’s first team besides Mike Sweeney. And yes, FAs always come with risks, which is why I would rather roll the dice on a kid who costs $500k than one at $20m.
Gary Chesney
11 months, 3 weeks agoPlease update us on the injured Royals with an estimated date of major league return to duty.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim -
I know you love to debate, but I don’t think a statement about Getz’s hitting trending downward (toward his historical average) is debatable. He didn’t hit well in May.
All of the talk of inflection points reminds me of the saying that economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions. Every good week/month is a potential sign that something has permanently changed for the better, but most of them are just random variation or indistinguishable from that (e.g. a player makes a successful adjustment but then other teams adjust back to take away the advantage).
Field F/X will eventually overtake the advanced baseball statistics, but first it needs to build up some history. The advanced defensive metrics are based on three to five years of data at all 30 parks. Field F/X was only in SF in 2010, and 4 more parks (KC, NY, SD, TB) last year. I’d be surprised if it has a good enough baseline to measure players against yet.
Jim Wilson
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F., I’m don’t understand your point about Chen. His 2012 ERA is 4.86, his career ERA is 4.54 and his ERA with the Royals is 4.36. Don’t get me wrong, I like Chen. But I don’t see the inflection.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“All of the talk of inflection points reminds me of the saying that economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions.”
Nice saying, but has nothing to do with it. Would you agree that the PIIGS are inflections that change trends?
“Every good week/month is a potential sign that something has permanently changed for the better”
Chen, Frenchy, Melky, Gordon, now Getz. On the other side are injuries, also seen as inflection points, which is why Roy Oswalt signed a minor league contract.
“Field F/X will eventually overtake the advanced baseball statistics, but first it needs to build up some history.”
Kind of like suggesting that telescopes need to build up some history before trusting them more than eyeballs?
“I’d be surprised if it has a good enough baseline to measure players against yet.”
Maybe Lee can ask the Royal Nerds about that. Since FieldFX is an over-glorified stop watch and charting of speeds and motions, I doubt it will take years to realize that some fielders are quicker and take better angles from their actual starting positions than others. It slices data finely enough to answer the question, how long from point A to point B?
Nice to see you again, Brendan. You’re always interesting and thought provoking. I did use some of your ideas on a Martin Manley thread about run-scoring efficiency where they were quite applicable. You can get to it on the above link.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F -
You definitely love to argue. Unfortunately, I can’t follow what you’re saying in half of your rebuttals here.
My point on Field F/X is that we’re trying to figure out how good Hosmer is relative to other 1B. But in order to make that comparison, we need a baseline of how other 1B perform in all sorts of situations (charging bunts, hard grounders, plays to the left and the right, starting double plays, popups in foul territory, etc), and those data take awhile to build up. The typical 1B only fields half as many balls as a SS or 2B, so we’ll probably get better reads on middle infielders before we get them for guys at the corners.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks agoTwo things: We just posted the video with Doug Sisson explaining leads at third base. Well worth your time in understanding the complexity of the situations we see played out every night.
Secondly, Hosmer’s good defensive reputation with his teamates is based on his ability to handle bad hops, wide throws and his footwork around the bag.
They feel he saves them errors on almost a nightly basis and allows them to make plays they’d never attempt with a lesser glove at first.
If those plays are not being included in any defensive metric, there will be a difference of opinion between the players and statisticians.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“My point on Field F/X is that we’re trying to figure out how good Hosmer is relative to other 1B.”
Okay. FieldFX should have a great advantage on that by establishing how quick and rangy a 1B is, but good point on the need for more plays to get a useful sample size to compare among different teams.
“we’ll probably get better reads on middle infielders before we get them for guys at the corners.”
And will be able to compare various of our own middle-infielders to each other, much more useful to the team at the moment than whether Hosmer is a better 1B than Fielder, which is of more interest to fantasy players or during arbitration.
“The typical 1B only fields half as many balls as a SS or 2B”
Half as many batted balls. Thrown balls are much more common and can also be a little tricky and are a legitimate factor in rating a 1B defense, I would think.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F (and Lee) -
Hosmer does have a good reputation as a receiver of throws, but the research done by the defensive stat guys shows that there’s a limit to how much this can help. Opportunities for a 1B to handle a difficult throw occur about once every two to three games. The best 1B in the majors (Barton, Kotchman, A-Gonz, and, surprinsingly, Huff) get about 90% of the throws. The worst (Fielder, Votto, Overbay) get about 70% of the throws. Hosmer does seem to be better than average at this, but nothing on the order of saving an error a night.
Receiving throws is incorporated into one of the measures of defensive production, but Hosmer’s below average range is more than cancelling it out and he has a below average rating overall.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“When you’ve had a crap team for a quarter century”
Dates back to when Mr. K gutted the farm, broke the bank, and kicked off the FA wars, then left a succession plan that put money for the Foundation ahead of money for the quality of the team. Those of us who remember those days draw lessons from that time. For useful analytic purposes, the Royals started at zero six years ago, literally zero as they had very little talent anywhere in the system, no international presence, didn’t even have cell phones for the scouts, less possibilities than an expansion team.
“Where’s that money going? (hint: and don’t answer with “to the minor leagues and internationally, because EVERY team invests in those things”
Not to the extent that the Royals and a few other teams have. That is what motivated the big market teams to change the rules in the last CBA to keep the Royals from overpaying for Duffy and Myers, as two examples.
“the $20-$80MM differences that the Royals are spending from their competitors).”
Royals are spending less than Tampa, last I looked. Brewers are at $97 million, Twins at $94 million. The extra $30 million doesn’t seem to guarantee success.
“$20-$80MM differences that the Royals are spending from their competitors).”
What comparable market team has a $140 million payroll? Detroit is at $132 million and two games ahead of us in the standings as their owner tries to quickly buy a championship. We’ve seen that movie before, Mark Davis anyone?
“what, exactly, were the stadium renovations for?”
Taxpayer funded corporate welfare, not unlike help given auto plants in the state. I voted against them.
Joel Kallem
11 months, 3 weeks agoBrendan, cannot believe you want to put a large measure of Gio’s ineptitude in the field on Hos. While your statistical measurements (which are really subjective when looking at defense) may say he is only an average first baseman, the eye test tells you something else. Spend a game really looking at his work around the bag and see what your own eyes tell you. The fact that the infielders have supreme confidence in him that allows them to play “loose” should tell you more than any contrived statistical analysis that is great for fantasy stuff, but not the real world.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“There was some great work last winter breaking down play by play and determining that this is largely the result of poor positioning”
Brendan, did the studier, Zimmerman as I remember, adjust the pie slices for the 2nd baseman moving toward 1st? I don’t remember him doing that. Hosmer may have been getting dinged from balls that would have been in the adjusted pie slices of any of our four 2nd basemen on a shift.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks agoEverybody: It’s easy for me to get drawn into arguments that I have no business getting into; being opinionated will do that.
I often have to remind myself that I have no special information on certain subjects and I’ll just be blowing hot air if I go off.
And there’s enough hot air to go around already.
What I do have is access to players and coaches. Over time we’ve developed a good relationship. They think I’m at least trying to cover parts of the game that usually get ignored and are willing to give me information that explains what they do.
It doesn’t mean that they’re always right (although, I usually think they are), but it’s a point of view not commonly available elsewhere. Trying to provide that to fans seems worthwhile.
So when I’m thinking straight (about 50% of the time) I should just bring you their point of view and it’s up to readers to decide if that makes sense to them.
So here it is: as Joel points out, the guys who are there every night and have watched thousands of ball games and players think Hosmer is very good defensively.
The guys who try to measure what he does statistically have a different opinion.
I tend to side with the ballplayers. Feel free to disagree.
KC Guy
11 months, 3 weeks agoI wasn’t really convinced by the study that’s usually cited about Hosmer’s positioning (I’m assuming it’s this one: http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/11/10/2538524/eric-hosmers-defense-part-2-positioning).
Just look at the screen captures that are shown to try to illustrate the point:
—The first one is a ball hit much closer to the 2nd baseman, and shows Hosmer retreating to 1st base —The second one is a ball hit closer to the 1st baseman in a normal defensive position in the 4th inning of a tie game —The third one is against a left-handed power hitter (Teixeira) in the bottom of the 9th inning of a tie game. That is absolutely a time when a double down the line to lead off an inning drastically shifts the favor towards the home team, so Hosmer should be hugging the line (the fact that the writer thinks the position Escobar is in is “double play depth” also makes me kind of scratch my head). —The fourth one shows a ball hit almost directly down the line, and Hosmer is already in motion to field it
What the screen captures don’t show is where the first baseman started, or how and how hard the balls were hit. I’ve watched a decent number of the plays referenced on the Royals Review post where dates/times are noted. The very first play, Hosmer is well off the line, and the ball is actually hit between the foul line and Hosmer, so the insinuation that he plays too close to the line isn’t even accurate. On one play, Hosmer gets to the ball in plenty of time, but a tricky hop kicks off his glove, which apparently counts against his range. On another, he’s playing even with the base due to a bunt threat, and can’t cleanly glove a high hop with a lot of topspin. Again, not a range or incorrect positioning issue – if he’s able to play normal depth, he fields the ball easily. On the play in the fourth screen capture referenced above, Hosmer correctly fields the ball, but Duffy is way too late to cover 1st, and no out is recorded. Counts against Hosmer. On the Wieters screen grab (the first one), Hochevar is supposed to throw the ball outside to a LH hitter, misses back over the plate, and serves up a hard hit ground ball between 1st and 2nd. I want to see the 55% of 1st baseman that routinely field that ball as hit, because they don’t appear to be playing in the Major Leagues.
I watch Hosmer play, see defensive metrics saying he’s below average, and it makes me question the accuracy / efficacy of those metrics. Obviously, others see defensive metrics saying he’s below average, watch him play, and it makes them question the reputation he has as a good defensive 1st baseman. I just don’t see the defensive numbers being specific enough to truly measure each ball the player was presented with – it’s applied against too general of a mostly context-free spectrum to truly be consistently useful..
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks agoKC Guy: That information is extremely useful, thank you. I think any information—from the players or the stat guys—should be taken with a grain of salt.
Players and coaches have complained to me about UZR, saying it doesn’t take into account where the player started. Teams that play a lot of shifts will hurt their fielders’ UZR rating as a result: the players do not get to balls that the metric thinks ought to be fielded.
Statistics can only take you so far. One night I saw Jason Kendall give up three stolen bases: Brian Bannister ignored a runner and no throw was possible, the defense blew a run down and on a first and third situation, Kendall threw to third in an attempt to pick off the runner.
Three stolen bases against him and he wasn’t responsible for any of the plays.
I’m not saying ignore numbers—they can be useful. Just be aware there’s almost always more to the situation than the numbers can provide.
Larry Tindle
11 months, 3 weeks agoLook, you don’t choose your fandom: Why not. I did. Was a Tigers fan for 50 years. Now I’m a Royals fan by choice. Big money is no guarantee of success. Add up what the Yankees have spent in the last 10 years to claim one WS. DM has said (you can look it up) that once the core players are in place they will spend money to fill a few gaps. You can’t fill the whole team that way and there is no sense hadcuffing yourself with pricey free agents until they will truely make a difference. If you don’t think they will spend money, take a look at what they have spent on draft signings in the last 6 years. The most in MLB.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoFor most of last year, I trusted my eyes over the defensive numbers. Even at the year end, I was deeply skeptical of the numbers until Jeff did his study and Connor did his follow up. That was the first time I saw a credible theory for how Hosmer could appear to me to be a good first baseman with good range but also be registering the defensive numbers he was.
As we’ve gotten into this year and Hosmer has continued to post below average numbers, I think it is increasingly difficult to believe that it’s just a few bad hops or a few times he was playing no-doubles defense or whatever.
There are two different defensive charting systems (STATS and BIS) and multiple defensive metrics working off of those data. Different systems make different adjustments for shifts and incorporate thrown balls as well as batted balls. However, every single one of them has Hosmer below average last year and below average this year.
I have been deeply skeptical of the defensive metrics and I retain some skepticism, but I’m sure that the Royals are looking at the numbers, and I think that it may influence their opinion of what they need from their second baseman (I don’t know where Joel gets that I blamed Hosmer for Gio’s mistakes in the field).
Jim Wilson
11 months, 3 weeks agoLee, I appreciate what you are trying to bring to the table. However, I’m not sure what you’re getting is always a truly honest assessment. Of course Yost is going to say that the Royals are going to be aggressive on the basepaths. What do you expect him to say? (Expect the latter part of the losing streak, we’re not.) Same with the third base coach. And I doubt that Dayton will share with you (if you actually talked with Dayton) that he has a concern about Hosmer’s range to his right. Why would he? But internally they may very well have a concern about it and it may have an impact on what they do at second base. That’s Brendan’s point.
Jared Dull
11 months, 3 weeks agoHosmer is still only 22. What I see is a natural athletic gift mixed in with a little inconsistency. As he gains experience, I expect the stats to catch up with what we see with our eyes. Both at the plate and in the field… Same could be said for a lot of guys on this team, which is really exciting!
Joel Kallem
11 months, 3 weeks ago“I like Gio and I want to see the Royals give him a real shot at 2B, but I think Hosmer might end up blocking him.”
Brendan, I read the above quote from you as giving Gio a free pass on his errors because of what Hosmer is supposedly doing to him. Gio’s problems in the field are his bad hands, not Hosmer’s (phantom) lack of range.
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 3 weeks agoHave we ever considered the notion that Hos is an exceptional fielder when it comes to corralling throws and scoops, but has subpar range?
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJared -
1B is the only position on the field where players get better as they age, so I think Hosmer will get better as he gains experience. My point was that for now, the Royals may feel the need to pair him with a 2B who’s above average defensively.
Joel -
Despite aside this year’s struggles, Hosmer is profiling as a subpar defender who more than makes up for it with a well-above-average bat. Based on his minor league numbers, Gio projects to be the same. However, Hosmer is already well entrenched, and the Royals, with their emphasis on defense, might not be willing to put two subpar defenders on the right side of the infield. Hosmer is probably the better player of the two, so if I had to pick one, I’d pick him, but Gio might be getting more starts if the 1B was showing better range.
It’s just a theory, but it’s based on statistics I know that the Royals are looking at. The biggest flaw in the theory is the number of starts Yuni has gotten this year, but I’m not sure any theory can explain that.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“I’m sure that the Royals are looking at the numbers”
Lee did talk to Jin Wong awhile back about numbers and scouts. And I would add that the Royal Nerds are seeing numbers that we probably never will, as they are derived from proprietary software and generated by seriously expensive equipment that not all teams have.
As for Hosmer’s range, my eyes will never agree with the pie-slices. I see Hoz as being fairly quick for his size and having good reflexes and good feet. I also see him spending much of his time holding runners on 1st and being in shifts that would make some of his academic pie-slice actually the responsibility of Aviles-Betemit-Yuni-Gio-Getz over the last nearly full season. Until we get numbers from a zero-based system able to quantify a fielder’s steps and speeds relative to a ball’s speed and vector, eyeballs will carry much more weight with me.
“Less obvious is the fact that Dayton Moore, the man who thinks Yuni and Getz are both high-quality players in this league”
You forgot to mention his man-crush on Frenchy and his error of signing Chen three years ago. It was my understanding that all four of those points were inextricably linked as justifications for firing Moore.
Quick question, Mark, would you trade for Josh Beckett and/or Wandy Rodriguez? Who would you give up for them? Specifics are much more interesting than airy generalities.
“the number of starts Yuni has gotten this year, but I’m not sure any theory can explain that.”
When theories fail, facts are handy: Getz’ new stance is having some problems with lefties and Yuni was used in a platoon.
Ben Weddle
11 months, 3 weeks agoLee, Love the 3rd base coaching video. This game never ceases to amaze me with it’s intricacies. The more you learn about the subtle aspects of what affects the final score, the less likely you are to go off on some unfounded tirade against a player, coach or manager.
Jay Hall
11 months, 3 weeks agoI think part of the disconnect on this board between fans that are reliant on stats vs. those that trust the insight of scouts, etc. is an information disconnect.
Years ago before the internet exploded we as fans didn’t have access to the type of information that we have access to today. We got to watch the national game of the week, a few highlights on This Week in Baseball and 60-80 games of the local teams. That was basically it. Only the traditional stats (BA, ERA, RBI, HR, W-L) were readily available. It’s safe to say that most fans didn’t have much information to go on. They didn’t see as many games. They didn’t have access to the data on pitch type. Most statistics that were publicly available didn’t include platoon splits, etc. So of course the insider’s knew more. They had 100 times the information. They saw hundreds of games whereas most fans only saw a few dozen.
Now though, we as fans have access to tons of information. Go on Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, or any other stats site and you will find numbers galore. There have been statistical studies. If you pull up an ESPN Gamecast it will tell you the probability of scoring 1 run, 2 runs, 3 runs, etc. in every situation. We as fans have access to almost as much information as any GM, manager or player does. Yes, the Royals have proprietary software that analyzes fielding. Maybe they are driving the 2013 concept car while we are stuck in the 1980 station wagon. But we have data that we can look at. We can watch tons of games. If you want to pay for the MLB TV you can watch just about every game online. You can watch minor league games.
As a result, some fans are no longer just taking the word of players, managers, GM’s etc. when they make decisions because they have information that suggests otherwise. We don’t have to believe what we are told because we can see the action AND we can look at the numbers.
If I wanted, I could get side by side video of any player’s stance and swing from the last several years. I could get a spray chart for all batted balls, or a plot of all the pitches they swung at. I could get a plot of a pitcher’s release point on all his fastballs, or the amount of break on his sliders, or the velocity on his change up vs. his fastball. I could get that data by inning, by situation, etc. It’s all out there.
And because the information is out there, we can make our own judgments.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“And because the information is out there, we can make our own judgments.”
Just as fans always have.
I think the major disconnect in all this is between fantasy and baseball, giving two completely different perspectives and approaches to the real game. Another major difference is that currently available stats, in an effort to be “objective” and individually relevant, are unable to see near what eyeballs can in a team sport with currently unquantifiable variables, the century old suggestion of “outstanding play” matched with “error” an example and one reason that Polk is a superior defensive system to pie-slice.
“It’s all out there.”
Can it tell you why Bruce Chen is successful? No, because the so-called advanced metrics are still challenged by hitters being fooled or jammed or getting lucky on a cupcake line-drive off the end of the bat just out of the reach of a diving 2B. Stats are getting better. I like Tango’s iteration of the century old wOBA, as an example, and find use in Dan Brook’s PitchFX site, which I link fairly often and am a sponsor of. Eyeballs and numbers have always worked together, probably the biggest current difference from the old days is the cameras linked to computers, technology.
Good work, Jay.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F -
I know you don’t like the defense-independent pitching statistics like FIP, so what are you looking at when you talk about Bruce Chen’s success?
Chen is a fly-ball pitcher, who has undoubtedly been helped by pitching in the K, which suppressed home runs. He was giving up 1.82 HR per 9IP when he came here, and he’s given up 1.13/9 since. However, it’s hard to see much improvement outside of that. His ERA has dropped from 4.88 pre-Royals to 4.36 with the Royals, which is far less than you’d expect just from the decline in home runs.
I’m not putting too much weight on this year because he only has 11 starts so far, but a 4.86 ERA isn’t good.
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 3 weeks agoI don’t know how much longer I can put up with the Royals. Betancourt is the biggest joke of a player I’ve ever seen. Falu is a much better player in my opinion, and it’s not even close. Smh…smh…
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“will you hold them to their promise to spend more on free agents and overall payroll”
Payroll is up from last year, in part due to locking in Gordon, Escobar, and Perez. Chen was a free agent, Frenchy would have been. With the injury to Duffy, he’s no longer next in line for a big extension, so now they can concentrate on Hosmer and Moustakas and I expect Big Billy to get another extension.
I assumed everyone knew those things and payroll numbers aren’t a secret. Royals are up $24 million from last year, about a 67% increase. I’ld say the promise is being fulfilled within the constraints of the market, others might disagree and think we should have signed Oswalt, Jackson, and Wilson. Next year $75 million looks possible, which would free up about $20 mil for extensions or FA. Do you spend that to try to lock in Moose and Hosmer through their first two years of FA or do we spend it on Zack or Marcum?
“Falu is a much better player in my opinion, and it’s not even close.”
I prefer Falu for a number of reasons, but I would guess that they are still curious as to whether Giavotella can create more bases than he kicks away and whether Yuni’s healed ankle helps a little. When Getz comes back is when it gets interesting and may be when Yuni gets released. My preference is Getz and Falu. GMDM’s preference is likely that Yuni gets hot and can be traded for a “C” pitching prospect at the break, as Falu has proven that he has value and versatility.
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 3 weeks ago“GMDM’s preference is likely that Yuni gets hot and can be traded for a “C” pitching prospect at the break, as Falu has proven that he has value and versatility.”
I have always wondered on the trade value of some of our guys…. In particular, what does anyone think we could get for Betancourt, Pena, Giavotella, Francouer, and CRob in any combination? I don’t see Betancourt or Pena sticking when Getz and Perez come back. I don’t personally like Giavotella, maybe with more PT he could sway me back. Frenchy I think will eventually give way to Myers since Gordon is locked up long-term and CRob is blocked for all of eternity. Could we somehow get a decent or two decent pitching prospects out of that?
Also, we keep talking about Smith and Mazzaro getting chances as starters, what about Verdugo? He has been pretty good in AAA, but I haven’t heard anything about him in a while.
To Jim F.: where do you see the pitcher rankings on fangraphs? I specifically am looking for where you see they say that Paulino is a #2 starter. Do I need an account?
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoThayne -
For fangraphs leaderboards, go to the main site, and on the navigation bar at the top, go to leaders. There’s a drop down menu where you can click pitching leaders for 2012 or 2011. If you just click on leaders, it takes you to a list of hitting leaders. You can change to pitching in the second row of choices (batting / pitching / fielding). In the fifth row (single season / split / min IP), you’ll need to change the season to 2011 and reduce the min IP since Paulino didn’t get enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. If you set min IP to zero, Paulino is 7th on the third page, or 67th overall. I’ll leave it to Jim F to explain how that equals #2 starter.
On a side note, the reason I asked Jim F about how he’s evaluating Chen is that he’s previously expressed disdain for FIP (fielding-independent pitching) and Chen doesn’t look great by tradional metrics like ERA, but I’ll point out that the Fangraphs pitcher rankings are based on FIP.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“To Jim F.: where do you see the pitcher rankings on fangraphs? I specifically am looking for where you see they say that Paulino is a #2 starter. Do I need an account?”
The way I do it is go to “leaders” top right, pitching leaders, 2012, then the first page gives you the top 30 by fWAR, second page the #2s. Felipe doesn’t have the innings to qualify, so I go back home, then teams, then Royals, pitching, Paulino, WAR, and see where that puts him on the leader boards. His 0.7WAR puts him on the 3rd page today, as everybody else had a start since last I looked. His neighbors at 0.7 are Adam Wainwright, Bartolo Colon, and Colby Lewis, among others, on 10 and 11 starts. Master Chen’s 1.1 puts him high on the second page, between Yu Yarvish and Kevin Millwood, but with one more start. 1.1 on 11 starts is the same as Jon Lester.
“what about Verdugo”
Bob Dutton said today on a chat that Verdugo skipped a start to keep ready for call up and is likely next in line. Smith gets another chance, as he earned it, but one good meltdown of a starter likely gets Verdugo up, in my personal opinion.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F -
If you’re including Paulino, even though he doesn’t have enough innings, shouldn’t you include everyone who doesn’t have enough innings? You can adjust the min IP on the fifth row of the options (single season / split / min IP) above fangraphs leaderboards. If you set it to zero, he is 87th (4th from bottom on page 3). If you limit it to starters (in the fourth row of options above the chart: all / starters / relievers), he is 79th (12th from bottom on page 3).
Thayne Griffin
11 months, 3 weeks agoThanks to the both of you.
Jim, I assume the first 30 you consider #1 pitchers, the next 30 #2s?
And do either of you two have a response to the trade value of Pena, Frenchy, Gio, Betancourt, and CRob that I posed earlier?
Think we could get a Will Smith level prospect or two out of two combo trades of that?
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“he is 79th (12th from bottom on page 3).”
And still a #3 before tonight’s start. Do you have a better rating system? BR isn’t giving WAR yet.
“And do either of you two have a response to the trade value of Pena, Frenchy, Gio, Betancourt, and CRob that I posed earlier?”
Frenchy is the most valuable of the bunch, but his contract weighs him down. The rest are throw-ins on a bigger trade, maybe players to be named later. That is one reason I considered demoting Hosmer and bringing C Rob up, enhance his trade value.
“Jim, I assume the first 30 you consider #1 pitchers, the next 30 #2s?”
Yep, it’s quick and handy and appeals to a commonly recognized currency, fWAR. Is it fool proof? No. Is it useful? I think so, but would entertain another way to examine claims that, for instance, Bruce Chen wouldn’t be a 4 or 5 pitcher on a good team. What it does best is provide comps at the moment.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoThayne -
I’m guessing most of those guys aren’t worth much of anything right now.
In theory, guys should be worth the difference between what they cost a team and what they produce for a team, with the production valued at around $5M / win (where wins are measured by WAR usually) because free agents cost about $5M / win.
If we believe that Sal Perez can be a 2-win per year player (which is about league average), then he’s generating about $9M in surplus value (2 wins = $10M production minus $1M salary) per year for the next several years, and if the Royals traded him, we’d expect them to get a return that also had an expected surplus value of about $40M.
However, it’s not clear that the guys you mention have any surplus value. Yuni costs $2M a year but isn’t generating any production. Gio is even cheaper (MLB minimum of $500K), but until he starts hitting at the MLB level, we probably can’t assume he’ll generate any value either. Same goes for Clint, who is mashing AAA but the scouts don’t think can hit in the majors.
Pena and Francouer probably have some surplus value. Francouer’s contract is $13.5M over two years, and is probably close to a 2-WAR player. Pena is signed for this year for $875K and will be under team control for two more years at probably around $1M per year. He looks to be about a 1-WAR player.
If you want to figure out what sort of prospect we might be able to get for the surplus value in those contracts, you can either look for MLB players in similar contract situations (google cot’s contracts for the best site with player contract data) or look at prospects. The best work on valuing prospects was done a few years ago by Victor Wang at Hardball Times (google victor wang prospect values for several good articles). There’s a nice summary of the dollar values for prospects at beyond the box score (google victor wang beyond the box score and go to the first link). Basically, the best we could hope for from trading Francouer or Pena is a grade B (using John Sickels prospect grades) hitter or grade C+ pitcher.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F -
I like the system as a quick-and-dirty measure for pitchers. I’m just surprised you do since you have been quite critical of FIP (on which fangraphs pitching WAR is based) in the past.
Baseball-Reference is rolling out a new pitching WAR this year. I have high hopes for it. I think it’s probably good not to roll it out too early in the season because the numbers bounce all over the place, but I would think they could post it by now.
Since WAR is a counting stat, I don’t think it makes sense to apply an innings minimum (if somebody broke the home run record but didn’t have enough ABs to qualify for the batting-average title, nobody would deny him the record), so I think you’re right to include Paulino even if he doesn’t have the minimum number of innings. I just think that it’s right to include everyone, so I always set the min IP to zero when I’m looking at WAR. (if I’m looking at a rate stat like ERA or FIP or SIERA [which I like the best], I always set it to qualified).
I think Paulino is a very good pitcher. I’ve been very impressed with him.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago“I’m just surprised you do since you have been quite critical of FIP (on which fangraphs pitching WAR is based) in the past.”
Again, a matter of common currency.
“so I think you’re right to include Paulino even if he doesn’t have the minimum number of innings.”
Paulino is a starter, so the number at least gives us some names to compare to on season long production. Perhaps fWAR/game would be of use? At least the leader pages suggest that our top three starters are about average or better and, along with our bullpen, explain why the Royals’ pitching rates as not as terrible as some might think.
Been thinking about trying Yahoo Fantasy Baseball as a way to understand the other perspective. Probably not as much fun as forex, but no knowledge is wasted.
Brendan Woodbury
11 months, 3 weeks agoJim F -
B-R’s WAR is up for pitchers. Paulino is #40 in MLB by their rankings. The only other Royal in the top 100 is Tiny Tim Collins, who has been awesome this year (he’s #78)
I hate doing links on here, so go to B-R, click on American League, go to the menu bar under the ad (2012 AL >> NL | MLB | Minor Leagues | Fielding [+] | Batting [+] | Pitching [+] …) and hover over the + by Pitching. Click on “Player value.” That should give you a list of AL pitchers. You can switch to all MLB if you like. Then just click on WAR or RAR to sort.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks agoHere’s the link. B-R is brutal:)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2012-value-pitching.shtml
bWAR has the Royals’ pitching 15th, between the LADs and the Rays. fangraphs definitely likes individual KC starters a little better and B-R seems to value high leverage relievers highly, but team totals are similar.
On the links here, I just swipe them, rt click, “open link” and it works.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks agoBet Paulino’s top 30 now. Good game.
John Wilson
11 months, 3 weeks agoBroxton was beastly in the 9th also. Paulino continues to impress me.