Games: Cleveland Indians, May 29: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

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May29

Will Smith with a lead

So this is what Will Smith looks like when he has a lead. Easy for me to say (and write), but it seems as though pitchers ought to throw this way all the time. In close games, pitchers often try to be too fine, hit microbes on the corners and fall behind in the count. As the late Paul Splittorff would say, “How’s that working out for you?”

It looked like two different pitchers: With a two-run lead in the bottom of the first, Smith nibbled, walked the first two batters (both scored), followed that by giving up two hits and had Vin Mazzaro and the next Greyhound bus to Omaha warming up.

The Royals scored five runs in the top of the second, and the other Will Smith appeared. This Will Smith worked quickly, threw strikes and put up five consecutive shutout innings for a quality start and his first win in the big leagues. After his first start on May 23 against the New York Yankees, a lot of Royals fans wondered why Smith was brought up to the major leagues.

They now have an answer.

Game notes

• The umpires have scuffled in this series and blew another call in the first inning Tuesday night. Alex Gordon was on first base and Johnny Giavotella hit a ball to Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis. Kipnis flipped the ball to the shortstop, Juan Diaz. Diaz, possibly worried about base-runner Alex Gordon tearing out his spleen, never caught the ball. The umpire, Jerry Layne, ruled that Diaz caught the ball and dropped it while pulling the ball out of his glove. Replays did not confirm this alternate version of reality.

• Gordon was hitting lead off in an effort to get him going offensively. Maybe it shouldn’t make a difference, but Ned Yost thinks Gordon hit well there last year and wants to see what effect this move has on Alex.

• Mike Moustakas pulled a low-and-away pitch for a two-run home run in the first. The ball’s location tells you Moustakas has to be one strong dude to pull it that far. If I tried to pull a ball in that location, I probably wouldn’t hit it out of the infield, much less the park. (This could be why I’m watching baseball for a living.)

• Mike just missed another home run, had to wait for the umpires to look at the replay and then had a two-RBI single. Moose showed excellent concentration during a long and difficult at-bat.

• Another good sign: Billy Butler and Jeff Francoeur went 1-for-8 with a combined five strikeouts (and, no, that’s not the good sign). What’s encouraging about this situation is that the other hitters picked up the team when two of the hottest hitters had an off night. This is what good teams do.

• Shortstop Alcides Escobar did not dive for a groundball to his right when it appeared he should have at least made the attempt to keep the ball on the infield. It didn’t cost the Royals a run in this game, but it might in the future.

• In his first at-bat, Eric Hosmer worked the count to 3-0, but with nobody on base, he did not appear to get the green light. A common hitting strategy is to look for the same pitch 3-1 and turn on the fan if you get it. Hosmer did, but fouled it back.

• Eric then picked up a single by going the other way. Hitting the ball to the opposite field cures a lot problems. The hitter has to wait (better pitch selection) and keep his front side closed (better mechanics). George Brett once told me that whenever he scuffled he would try to hit the ball the other way to get back on track.

• Johnny Giavotella picked up a couple of singles (hitting coach Kevin Seitzer says Gio’s short arms help him get around on inside pitches), but booted a potential double-play ball. By my count, he has kicked three balls on this road trip (not all resulted in errors). You can see Johnny’s offensive potential, but you also can see why the Royals are concerned about his defense.

• Catcher Humberto Quintero cost Will Smith a wild pitch when he tried to glove strike three instead of blocking the pitch in the dirt.

• Humberto must have heard about Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis peeking back to pick up the catcher’s location, because the Royals catcher was staring up at Kipnis while giving the signs.

• If the Royals wanted to drill Kipnis, they had plenty of opportunities. (An extra runner wouldn’t have threatened Kansas City’s big lead.) I’m sure there’s more to the story, but the Royals may not have wanted to start something with a team they were beating soundly. Why wake them up? If the Royals had been behind late in a game and thought they had nothing to lose, things might have gone differently.

• On the other hand, if it’s a one-time deal and they don’t think Kipnis steals signs on a regular basis, the Royals may feel that letting him know they know he did it is enough.

• I just took a lot of words to say I don’t know what’s going on with Jason Kipnis.

• Cleveland pitcher Justin Masterson gave fits to the right-handed batters (4-20) and got beat by the left-handed batters (6-16). Billy Butler appeared to be looking for a pitch away, and Masterson would give him one. But it was too far away, and that had Billy chasing sliders out of the zone.

• Hosmer turned a potential two-base error on Moustakas into a one-base error with a leaping catch that kept the ball from going down the right-field line. That is one of the reasons the other infielders love having Hosmer at first base.

• Hosmer also had an error when Kelvin Herrera picked up a ball and threw it about a billion miles an hour at Eric. Hosmer’s mitt gave with the throw (it pretty much has to when the ball is thrown that hard: keep it still and it can hit and bounce off) and the ball came out of the end of the mitt.

• Jarrod Dyson stole second base on Masterson in the sixth inning. (If Masterson is going to take 1.55 seconds to deliver the ball to home plate with Jarrod Dyson on first, he’s pretty much asking for it.) Jarrod made the stolen base pay off when he also set sail for third, pulled third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall over to cover the bag and Humberto Quintero hit the ball through the spot Chisenhall vacated.

• Manager Ned Yost said it was all a happy accident, and he didn’t like Dyson stealing late in the count (according to my scorebook Quintero had a 1-2 count at the time). Ned’s point: The hitter can’t afford to take a pitch and the runner can be a distraction.

• Yost didn’t say this, but another reason to steal early in the count is a runner’s ability to score from third without a hit with less than two outs. The runner generally needs to get to third before the ball is put in play.

• Yost and first-base coach Doug Sisson were asked about the Royals struggling in the first game of a series. They both asked a logical question: Who were we facing? As we talked about yesterday, correlation does not imply causation. Always question what other factors might be involved before accepting a theory at face value. I’ll try to do the same.

Comments

John Wilson
11 months, 3 weeks ago

What a turnaround from April. We can’t finish worse than .500 for May after going 6-15 in April.

I do wonder just how much of a difference Perez will make with our starting pitchers assuming he returns with the same gusto he showed in September.

And nothing against Dyson, but Cain seems like an upgrade waiting to happen also.
Terry Payne
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, it as obvious as it looks? With Betancourt coming back, Chris Getz is a goner? I think that would be a shame, but numbers ARE numbers.
Morgan Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Lee, how is it some pitchers get into the bad habit of trying to be “too fine”? As you described, it’s like a different pitcher came to the mound with a five run lead.

I understand the mental shift between having a lead and trying to move through the game versus a tie or trailing situation and how that’s different, but it seems like there is a general mindset issue here.

I don’t know much about the Texas Rangers, but from what it looks like, Nolan Ryan shifted the pitching mindset when he took over as owner. No more pitch counts. It seems to have changed to: No more being fancy. We’re going after everyone, throwing strikes and daring them to beat us.

If Hoch is starting to shift that mindset, and Will did it last night, why isn’t it something that is demanded from the coaching staff? No more nibbling! It seems like that’s what happened after the AS break last year. Where did it go?

I know those are probably things that will get long, “it depends on the situation” answers, but it seems like it should be pretty simple and it also seems like that’s what happened in Texas.

With our defense, I feel like the pre-game talk to pitchers should be, “I don’t want to see one ball today. All strikes. Our guys will back you up.”

Anyway, again, I know it’s not that simple, but sometimes I wonder about it when I watch our guys stuggle.

Thanks for continuing to do a great job. Best blog on baseball!
Sean Fischbach
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Terry Payne

Getz .277/.322/.386 Bentancourt .280/.333/.420 Giavotella .214/.267/.262

I don’t really see a big enough difference to say Bentancourt will start at 2nd over Getz. Esp. when Getz plays better defense than Bentancourt and way better defense than Giavotella. So what numbers are you refering too?
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

John: It wasn’t very long ago that people (including me) thought that Cain would have a hard time getting his job back from Dyson.

Cain started slowly (.133) and I don’t know how they view his return. I know they love Dyson’s speed and his ability to put himself into scoring position.

It’s also hard to say what Perez coming back will mean. He’s got a lot of catching up to do (literally). Getting to know all the hitters and what his pitchers can do is a big job. It might take a while before we know what effect he’s having on the staff.

And, remember, that April record contains that long losing streak. Fans were freaking out, but nobody can play that bad for long. We’re now getting a more realistic idea of what this team can—and can’t—do.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Terry: I’m with Sean on this one. After watching the guy play every day for two years and counting, I like Chris Getz’ game a lot.

I’ve got no special insight on this subject, but the Royals seem to need Yuni or Falu on the roster. One of them is the back up short stop, neither Getz or Giavotella fills that role.

Getz is considered a better defender than Gio or Yuni and a more versatile player (bunt, steal, hit and run, move runners over, get runners in kind of stuff) as well.

Gio was brought up as a right-handed bat and if they want him to improve his defense they may want him playing every day and that might mean Omaha.

Falu got hot when he came up, but has since started to cool—to the point Ned gave Gio a start against a right-hander last night—so they might feel Irving’s returning to Earth.

Bottom line: at least for me—and many feel differently—no, it’s not a slam-dunk that Getz is the odd man out.

On the other hand, neither Dayton or Ned check with me before they make moves.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Morgan: Thank you. If this really is the best baseball blog—and I’m guessing some people would argue—it’s due to the players and coaches who share the information that makes the game so interesting.

But back to your question:

All coaches want pitchers to throw strikes. Bob McClure wanted them to throw strikes and lost his job when they didn’t. Dave Eiland was brought in to “provide a different voice”—a voice that was also saying throw strikes.

It’s obviously not as simple as just saying do it, or they would. I think it’s like Jesus convincing the disciples to walk on water—the first one that sinks freaks out the other ones.

Some of it is WHEN a pitcher throws strikes: a guy will go 2-0, throw a fastball when the hitter expects fastball, get it hammered and say, “See? You can’t just throw it down the middle.” The same fastball might’ve worked if thrown 0-0.

There’s also a difference between the minors and the big leagues. Pitches that hitters chased in Omaha get spit on by big leaguers and the pitcher finds himself behind in the count.

As Dave Eiland told me, some of these guys are having to change the way they pitch and change it on the biggest stage stage in baseball. They may be doing something for the first time and trying to do it in the big leagues while everyone watches and their fate hangs in the balance.

Small wonder that they often fall back into whatever worked for them in the past.

Maybe Will Smith and the other pitchers can take last night as a lesson. He was nibbling his way back to the minors, got a big lead and a lecture from Humberto Quintero and Eiland and went back out and pitched well.
Toten Kopf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Was it just me or did the Royals hitters appear to lose their patience once they had the lead?

I watched three Royals strike out in the 7th (Butler singled) and Hos, Escobar, and Dyson hacking away in the 8th.

I got the feeling that they were just trying to get the game moving by swinging at whatever was served. No one appeared to be working the count and they were swinging at stuff that wasn’t even close.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Toten: Couldn’t tell you if that was good pitching or bad hitting. If the pitcher has a lot of movement, hitters can look awful.

They chase pitches that started in the zone and ran out. The result is an ugly hack.
Lee Judge
11 months, 3 weeks ago

BTW: I’ve heard the Jason Kipnis peeking back thing was not an isolated incident. Fans might want to keep an “eye” on this situation. (Man, I can’t believe you’re getting this kind of humor for free.)
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Hey Lee (and all), sorry I had logged on this morning through my wife’s Facebook…my bad! blush

Anyway, back to the “throwing strikes” thing, I totally see and understand what you’re saying, but it still feels like there is something that’s fundamentally different between the Royals approach (to this point in the rebuilding process) and the Rangers.

Let me try another analogy…again, you all probably get tired of me talking about Bill Snyder, but one thing my friends and I always say is that every coach in America SAYS “we just want to get a little better ever day” but only one actually MEANS it.

I think it’s possible for coaches/teams/franchises to say “we want our guys to throw strikes” and then there are coaches/teams/franchises that actually mean it.

Now, that sounds like I’m being accusatory, but I’m not trying to be. It’s simply a head scratcher to me how all teams say it but only some actually do it.

Maybe it’s a mentality thing…last year you wrote a blog about Hoch seeing the same guy that Greg Maddox used to see and described the way they approach each inning. It’s different than everyone else does. I don’t know if there is some mental approach that can move our guys from talking about WANTING to throw strikes (especially in non 2-0 situations) to actually throwing strikes consistently, but if there is, I hope we can find it.

I think we’ve seen enough this season to know that when our guys “stop thinking” and just pound the zone, we seem to do well, but when they start trying to paint ever corner we struggle.

Anyway…that’s enough from me today. Sorry to keep clogging your comment box. Keep up the good work!
Joel Kallem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“Lee, it as obvious as it looks? With Betancourt coming back, Chris Getz is a goner?”

I agree with Lee and Sean that the obvious thing is that it is Gio who will go back to Omaha (or be traded). He is limited in what he can do both at bat and in the field, while Getz contributes “glue” to the team in many subtle ways. Long term, the Royals are looking at shifting other players in the minors (namely Colon) to second to strengthen the future of the position especially since Esky is showing he will be a fixture for a long time at shortstop.
Joel Kallem
11 months, 3 weeks ago

On another subject, Smith showed he has the potential to develop into another Chen. He has a nice variety of breaking stuff that is hard to hit. I hope he follows Bruce around and emulates what it took years for Bruce to develop. He may turn out to be the “diamond in the rough” coming out of the deal with the Angels.
Jay Hall
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Joel,

I agree that Gio’s defense is not his strong point. His range is average, his arm is average, but his hands are probably below average, which is what hurts him.

On the other hand, we all know that Yuni’s range is below average, even at second, and his hands are average at best. His arm is above average for a 2B.

Getz is a slightly above average defender, because his range is better than either Yuni or Getz.

Falu is a utility guy mostly because he is solid with the glove, but not spectacular at any one spot.

With the bat Yuni is well below average over 3600 career at bats. Getz is below average over 1100 career at bats. Falu was an average to slightly below average career minor leaguer with the bat.

However, Gio’s minor league numbers with the bat look like this:

2008 - .299/.355/.421 (low A) 2009 - .258/.351/.380 (high A) 2010 - .322/.395/.460 (AA) 2011 - .338/.390/.481 (AAA) 2012 - .331/.408/.504 (AAA)

I look at that and see a guy that has done nothing but DESTROY minor league pitching the past 3 seasons. We don’t have a star second baseman blocking his way (which is why Clint Robinson can’t get to the big leagues).

That stat line suggests that his potential with the bat is higher than Getz (best minor league season .302/.366/.448, which would be Gio’s 4th best year) Falu (best minor league season .301/.358/.390, would be Gio’s 4th best season - should also note that this is Falu’s line from last season, while Gio was throwing up that .338/.390/.481 line, just for comparison’s sake) or Yuni (best minor league season .283/.311/.424, would be Gio’s 5th best season).

Colon’s minor league resume looks like this:

2010 - .278/.326/.380 (high A) 2011 - .257/.325/.342 (AA) 2012 - .303/.374/.434 (AA)

His best minor league season (this year in a repeat of AA) would be Gio’s 4th best year at the plate.

It’s likely that Gio heads back to Omaha to work on defense, but his bat is probably already better than anything we have in the system at second either in the majors or the upper minors.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Jay, careers don’t take the field, but do agree that Yuni may be an odd man out with no options. Irving Falu plays six positions and switch hits and the Royals even have Tony Seratelli at Omaha for utility. Of course, I wanted Falu brought up last year instead of Gio because he can play SS.

As for Gio, if he hits a little it is possible that he can stick for awhile while Getz goes to Omaha to play SS with Tony Abreu getting some reps at 2nd for a month or so. If Gio can’t hit about .320, what he’ll need to balance out the glove, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s traded, as there isn’t much room for him in KC or Omaha. Only reason any of this is an issue is that Gio has yet to show that he can hit major league pitching. He may just be a 4A bat.

“Colon’s minor league resume looks like this”

As an SS with an average glove.

“should also note that this is Falu’s line from last season”

I would remind that Johnny Giavotella did sustain an injury last year, then surgery. Players don’t always come back at full production from injuries. Inflection points can change the arc of history.

Very good work, Jay. I run into a lot of Gio partisans and you make the case well and politely, which is extremely rare and appreciated. Thanks.
Jay Hall
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Thanks Jim. I see no need to be rude to anyone about this stuff. It’s not life and death. It’s baseball.

Speaking of stats, here’s something else interesting.

Again, these are just minor league stats.

Player A

At A/ Rookie ball hit .307/.401/.395 with 13 stolen bases and 12 errors. At AA hit .256/.326/.321 with 19 stolen bases and 14 errors. At AA (repeat) hit .299/.382/.381 with 13 stolen bases and 8 errors. At AAA hit .302/.366/.448 with 11 stolen bases and 11 errors.

Player B

At A ball hit .278/.326/.380 with 2 stolen bases and 17 errors. At AA hit .257/.325/.342 with 17 stolen bases and 18 errors. At AA (repeat) hit .303/.374/.434 with 9 stolen bases and 11 errors.

I think we can both agree that these two players look pretty similar. Player A is Chris Getz. Player B is Christian Colon.

We don’t know what Colon will do at the AAA level or ML level yet obviously, but we have a pretty similar guy in the organization to compare him to, for what it’s worth.

It should also be noted that for both Colon and Getz a lot of their errors in the minors came while playing SS, not 2B.
Jim Kissane
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Tom, with regard to the pitching mentality, one of the major differences between our staff and the Rangers staff is the level of experience. Pitching at the major-league level is a completely different mindset than it is in the minor leagues.

From the first time pitchers appear on the radar screens of major league scouts, they are coached on two things (and usually, ONLY two things): strikeouts and velocity. Nothing else much matters to scouts - at least not at this age - because other statistics are based on so many subjective criteria - wins and ERA, for example, are largely dependent on how good a team you play on. The organization’s thinking is that if a pitcher has the physical ability, they can teach him the rest. And this continues throughout a young pitcher’s development - you advance based on how you perform, and it often has little to do with victories.

Once you get to the bigs, however, the focus is on winning. Forget strikeouts, forget velocity - only it’s not that easy for young pitchers. All they’ve ever known is that with runners on first and third with one out, you need a strikeout. The catcher and the pitching coach are coming out to tell him that he needs to keep the ball low in the zone to get a double-play grounder, and it’s like, “What, let them hit the ball? No way!” But you’ve got fielders, a defense, a team. You don’t just have to rely on your stuff.

As pitchers mature, they figure this out, especially when they realize that all that nibbling pushes their pitch count to triple digits by the middle of the fourth inning. And when they see guys on the infield getting dirty and making plays behind them. Hochevar is getting there - he just needs to stay mean when he pitches. The others are younger, but the more they’re around Bruce Chen, they’ll pick it up, too.

It’s not entirely that simple, of course, but that’s certainly part of it. That, plus results teach lessons. Younger pitchers need to see these concepts in action and get positive results, like Smith did last night. Otherwise they revert to brute pitching - which may play a factor in so many pitchers needing TJ surgery before age 25.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

“We don’t know what Colon will do at the AAA level or ML level yet obviously, but we have a pretty similar guy in the organization to compare him to, for what it’s worth.”

True, although Colon’s glove may be better as he’s stayed at SS through AA. I think when he’s called up to Omaha in July they’ll start transitioning him to 2nd, as Escobar is a serious roadblock. I keep expecting Tony Abreu to get reps at 2nd at Omaha, also, for the same reason, SS is blocked for a few years while 2nd and UIF are still an open competition.

“I think we can both agree that these two players look pretty similar. Player A is Chris Getz. Player B is Christian Colon.”

That may be a compliment to Colon, as Getz is a solid major-leaguer. I would mention that Getz’ .362 wOBA in AAA was with Chicago’s team. Not sure which league or how analogous they are. Werner Park in the PCL can make hitters look good, as does Springdale.
Jim Fetterolf
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Jim K, very good insight. Thanks.
Jim Kissane
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Another concept young pitchers have difficulty absorbing is the difference between walks and hits. They grow up thinking that it’s better to allow a walk than a hit because walks don’t break up their no-hitters. In the majors, there is almost no difference - the mantra we learned as Midget Leaguers has grown up into the Moneyball Motto, a walk is as good as a hit (well, almost - you only get one base on a walk). Once a runner reaches base, how he got there becomes immaterial.

The point is that batters will get hits about one-third of the time, but 100% of the batters a pitcher walks reach base. It’s irrefutable. You can throw strikes and take your chances, or you can nibble and let them reach base anyway. As Lee has quoted Splitt before, “How’s that working out for you?”
Tom Roesler
11 months, 3 weeks ago

I buy the “young pitcher” thing, but not entirely.

Yes, I think it takes them time to adjust from “get a strikeout” to “throw low so we can get a double play,” but culture/mentality/whatever is involved as well.

A simplistic example is one kid being raised with parents saying, “he’s young…he’ll grow out of it.” And, another kid who is raised with parents saying, “son, that’s not how we act.” They will both probably grow into an adult who doesn’t do that (whatever it may be) eventually, but one will do it sooner than the other.

Anyway, please know that this isn’t a life and death issue to me. I know there are all sorts of degrees and various factors weighing in here. I just think that we see some organizations that “say it” and we see others who “believe it”…for both veterans AND rookies. I hope we start to turn our pitchers into a crew of guys who have the mentality/culture/identity of simply pounding the zone and telling the opposing batters “you’re going to have to beat us by hitting it where we ain’t cause we’re coming at ya every night!”
Terry Payne
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Guys, don’t get me wrong. I would prefer Getz stay over ALL of them. Perhaps Gio solved the issue for everyone with his ridiculous error today.

Judging the Royals