Games: Baltimore Orioles, May 27: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Baltimore Orioles

May27

Give Ned Yost credit

In the fifth inning, with the go-ahead run on second, Ned Yost pulled Luke Hochevar. Luke had just hit a batter and was at 104 pitches. With that kind of pitch count, a pitcher is often near the limit of what he can do that day. Give Yost credit for making a series of decisions that worked.

Ned brought in left-handed reliever Tim Collins to face a switch-hitter, Wilson Betemit. Yost turned Betemit around and Collins got a soft line drive to Johnny Giavotella for the third out of the inning. In the sixth inning Ned let Collins face the left-handed Nick Johnson (strikeout) the right-handed Robert Andino (groundout) and the left-handed Xavier Avery (strikeout).

In the seventh, with three right-handers coming to the plate, Yost brought in right-handed pitcher Kelvin Herrera. Kelvin went 1-2-3: J.J. Hardy (ground out), Nick Markakis (fly out) and Adam Jones (ground out).

In the eighth, Yost let Herrera face switch-hitting Matt Weiters (ground out). Then brought in left-handed Jose Mijares to face lefty Chris Davis (double—oops), let Mijares turn around switch hitter Wilson Betemit (groundout) and then brought in right-handed Aaron Crow to face right-handed pinch hitter Steve Tolleson (strikeout).

Yost then brought in his closer, Jonathan Broxton, for the ninth inning. Broxton, who appears to have the same pulse rate as a pachyderm that just woke up from a particularly satisfying nap, pitched around a ninth-inning error for the save. Managers get hammered for decisions that don’t work out. Give credit when a manager pushes all the right buttons for a win.

Game notes

Billy Butler hit his 11th home run in the first inning. Give Billy credit—he was asked to sacrifice average and on-base percentage to give the Royals some pop and Butler’s delivered.
According to Ned Yost, Luke Hochevar is attacking the strike zone and the results have been better. (A 3.78 ERA over the last four games—thanks for the stat, Joel Goldberg!) Apparently, Luke had been nibbling too much and the Royals wanted him to get more aggressive.
Hochevar gave up one earned run in this game and it came in the first inning after Mitch Maier left his feet for a sinking line drive, missed and couldn’t keep the ball in front of him. I’m not sure if Mitch could’ve played it for a single or he thought he could make the catch and realized too late he wouldn’t get there. I’ll ask when he gets back.
The usual game plan is to stay out of the big inning early (allowing a run if you have to—there’s time to make up for it) and play defense to prevent one run late (you may not have time to get the run back).
Mitch did get the run back in the next inning: he laid down a perfect safety squeeze, scoring Jeff Francoeur from third base.
You can tell the difference between a safety squeeze and a suicide squeeze by the runner: in a safety squeeze, the runner waits to see if the bunt is down before breaking for home. In a suicide squeeze, the runner breaks when the pitcher’s front foot hits the ground (too late to pitch out).
Francoeur got to third base with a combination of good and bad base running: he started the inning with a single, Adam Jones misplayed the ball and Jeff advanced to second base. But Frenchy was shutting it down as he approached first. Good base runners make a good hard turn, then shut it down if no advance is possible. (The turn depends on where the ball is hit: left field, big turn because of the long throw, right field, smaller turn because of the short throw.)
In any case, Francoeur made it to second, then advanced to third on another piece of aggressive base running. Alcides Escobar hit a line drive over the head of second baseman Robert Andino, but Andino was able to knock the ball down and keep it on the infield. Jeff scrambled to third on the play, which made Mitch Maier’s suicide squeeze possible.
With the score 2-1 Royals, Alex Gordon doubled to lead off the third inning. Johnny Giavotella’s job (at a minimum) was to get Gordon to third base by hitting the ball to the right side of the field. Pitcher Brian Matusz tried to prevent that by pounding Gio inside with fastballs and off-speed stuff. Matusz won the battle—Johnny hit a ground ball to third. You never know what a pitcher might have done in a different situation, but that ground-out might have cost the Royals a run when Mike Moustakas hit a possible sac fly to right field later in the inning.
Giavotella took an 0-fer, but it’s worth noting he lined out twice and hit a ball deep to right center in his last at-bat.
In the fourth inning Mitch Maier was at the plate and the umpire called an 0-1 slider, which appeared to be well out of the zone, a strike. When a pitcher sees this, he’ll take advantage: he’ll go even farther off the plate to see if he can get that call, too. The hitter, on the other hand, feels he has to protect against a pitch out of the zone. Matusz went off the plate and Maier chased, striking out. But the pitch that made it happen was the 0-1 slider.
In the bottom of the fourth with a runner on first and one down, Robert Andino hit a ground ball to Alcides Escobar. Esky wasn’t able to get the ball to Johnny Giavotella right away and the Royals failed to turn a double play. That cost them a run. Andino stole second (Hochevar was taking over 1.7 seconds to deliver the ball to home plate when he didn’t use a slide step) and Quintero chucked the ball into center field, probably trying to make up time by not waiting for his arm to get in the proper throwing slot. Andino took third on the error and scored on a single by Xavier Avery.
Avery’s ball was hit to right and Frenchy might have been able to prevent the run had Andino started from second base.
This was a case where a leadoff walk kind of scores: the Royals would have been able to throw out Andino on his ground ball if not for the fact that they had to go for the lead runner, Wilson Betemit.
In the fifth inning, Alex Gordon did a nice job of not getting doubled off on Johnny Giavotella’s line drive to third.
With two down, Alcides Escobar scored from first base on another Humberto Quintero double. Look for third-base coaches to be aggressive about sending runners home with two outs: hold them and you need another hit. Even if the on-deck hitter is terrific, the odds are about 70-30 that you won’t get the run home. Alex Gordon was on deck, he ended the day at .227, so if third-base coach Eddie Rodriguez thinks Esky scores more than two times out of ten on that play, sending the runner was the right thing to do.
After the game Ned Yost said he believed that if you make the defense make the play in that situation, most of the time you’ll be right. (Remember, it’s always easier for the base coach to hold the runner and blame the on-deck hitter if he doesn’t drive in the run.)
I went back (again) and checked the pitch to Quintero and saw the same thing I saw Saturday night: the Orioles were playing their left fielder off the line and the pitcher made a mistake with an off-speed pitch. The change-up that was supposed to be off the plate was over the plate and Humberto pulled it into the gap between the left fielder and the left field line.
The ninth inning error was given to Jeff Francoeur (Johnny Giavotella went back on a pop fly that should’ve ended the game, but ran into Frenchy) but the outfielder has priority over the infielder on this play. The outfielder is coming in, the infielder is going back. If Frenchy called the ball (he said he did, but Gio didn’t hear him), Johnny should have vacated the area.
As the Star’s Bob Dutton pointed out, eight other American League teams have used more lineups than the Royals. Basically, managers are trying to figure out who’s hot and bunch those hitters. Unless your team’s hitting bombs, you’re hoping for consecutive hits. Turns out, predicting the future is kind of hard. And as Ryan Lefebvre pointed out, if Ned Yost wasn’t juggling the lineup with a team that’s scuffling offensively, he’d also get criticized for that.

Comments

Tom Roesler
1 year ago

This team is growing and I love it. They keep grinding and have some grit, which is awesome. It will serve them well and is a solid foundation to build on. When the consistency comes, they’ll be a tough out!

After hearing the comments that Hoch has been “nibbling” too much and Billy saying our starters have started pounding the zone more in his post game comments following the NYY win, I’m convinced Sanchez has gotten into some bad habits trying to be too fine. I hope he comes back just pounding the zone and coming inside. Take a lesson from Hoch and stop being fancy.

This team is finding an identity and it ain’t fancy. I hope Sanchez joins the party when he comes back!

Keep sawing wood boys!
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Well said, Tom. Probably a better motto for the year than the current one, “Keep Sawin’ Wood.” Thanks.
Terry Payne
1 year ago

Another huge, confidence-building win. Now if they could get 2 of 3 from 1st place Cleveland, R’s could be on a roll. What are projected return dates for Sanchez, Teaford? Thanks
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Jon Sanchez has a AAA start coming up on Tuesday and Ev Teaford started doing some running, per Greg Luca at MLB.com:

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120527&contentid=32315008&notebookid=32315036&vkey=notebookkc&cid=kc

If things go well for Sanchez, on a 75 pitch limit, that lines him up for the Will Smith spot in the order, maybe next Sunday at home against the A’s.
Devan Shopinski
1 year ago

I wonder if Gio called the pop up in the 9th. He motioned with his arms, but Frenchy would not have seen that since he was watching the ball.
Joel Kallem
1 year ago

Royal relievers did a super job, only allowing one hit once they took over. Luke kept us in the game as the starter even if he had to leave early because of pitch count. The last two games in Baltimore have been very encouraging. On to Cleveland.

Gio continues to look less than ready in the field for the “bigs”, and his bat has been nothing special. I would hope we would keep Falu as the primary backup when Getz gets back as he appears to have more versitility than Gio or Yuni.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I would hope we would keep Falu as the primary backup when Getz gets back as he appears to have more versitility than Gio or Yuni.”

I hate to play favorites and know that Lee won’t, but you get no argument from me:)

This will be an instance where GM Dayton Moore earns his paycheck, as I see no way nor reason to keep more than two of the four and one of the two must be a utility man, preferably one who has AAA experience at six positions. Should be interesting.

Good points, Joel, thanks.
Derek Taylor
1 year ago

Possibly the official scorer read this blog - on the ESPN box score it has the error listed as being assigned to Gio now, not Francoeur.
Curtis Ruder
1 year ago

I think you are looking at the send the runner question incompletely. Unless that one run is of supreme importance, the third base coach should be looking at the totality of the inning. If the runner scores, that is great. If he gets thrown out, not only do you lose that run, but the guy standing on second base who just doubled is worthless. And there are more things that can score a run than a hit with a runner on third with two outs. Passed balls, wild pitches, and balks are all possibilities.

All that being said, I agree you should be aggressive, but with a complete perspective of what is being sacrificed with the wrong decision.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“If he gets thrown out, not only do you lose that run, but the guy standing on second base who just doubled is worthless.”

If we are discussing Esky scoring on Q’s double, Q did wind up on 3rd after the relay. Esky is fast and had a good jump, I would have waved him home. Royals have had a real hard time getting runners home from 3rd this year with one or two outs, even zero outs, which is also why Mitch did a squeeze bunt. a team averaging less than 4 runs per game sometimes needs to manufacture runs. I would remind that Quintero was not driven in from 3rd.

Appreciate the perspective, Curtis, that is one of your strengths. Our readers get the whole picture with Lee’s view plus that of our commentators, a major strength of this little community of ours. Thanks. BTW, cute kid:)
Bob Wheeler
1 year ago

I was at the game yesterday (my first trip to Camden Yards) and had a great time. When Gordon was nearly doubled off on the line drive I pointed out to my son that you could see just how far Gordon had been since they had dragged the infield and his footprints where the only ones there. It was about 20 to 25 feet.

The O’s fan next to me agreed and said that was “yet another sign that he was out”.

Perhaps MLB should look at assigning more umpires to Section 350.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

OK, here goes;

I don’t know if Sanchez is nibbling as much as unable to control his movement. Of course, if that’s true maybe he ought to throw the ball down the middle, since it won’t end up there. To me, hits are like bricks, walks and errors are like mortar: they help connect the bricks. So don’t give the other team any mortar.

Coming into this season, it seemed like the pieces were starting to fall into place, but we knew the starting pitching hadn’t caught up with the rest of the team. When the Royals get good starting pitching we get a glimpse of what this team can become.

The Giavotella vs. Getz debate is interesting and I think points out what the Royals see in Getz that might not translate into stats. The general feeling on the team is that Getz is consistent and knows how to play ball. He moves runners, gets his bunts down, gives a good AB with runners in scoring position, runs the bases well and makes about one mental mistake a year. You don’t have to agree with their conclusions, but as we watch Gio play, you can see what people like about Getz.

I’d agree that keeping Falu (at least until Yuni is ready—if that’s their plan) makes sense. They need someone who can back up at short.

Derek, thanks for the heads-up. If they’ve changed the scoring on that error I’ll fix it here as well.

Curtis, I agree with Jim: you guys add a point of view that helps the site. We’re not always going to agree (that would be boring), but I can bring the player’s mentality to the site and others can provide a different point of view.

For me, I would’ve been disappointed if Eddie hadn’t sent Esky on that play. In my mind, the risk was worth the reward: it was a meaningful, lead-increasing run (I wouldn’t feel the same down by five) and Alex Gordon was on deck.

Either decision is a risk. You can’t really preserve the runners, just expose them to a different risk. Alex has not been swinging the bat well overall (though he did double and walk earlier in the game if you want to take the other side of the argument) and was facing a lefty. He did go on to strikeout, but as we’ve pointed out many times on the site, arguing alternative realities isn’t realistic. You can’t change one event and then assume all the others stay the same.

I just agree with Yost: if you’re aggressive in that situation, it will work out more than it won’t. At least that’s been my experience (for what it’s worth).

Bob, clearly the umpires should not only be in Section 350, they should probably have a couple of beers as the game progresses. I gave Alex heads-up base running points on that play for getting back. That’s a very difficult read and a lot of runners wouldn’t have made it back safely.

Now I’ll take my own advice and have a couple cold ones to prepare for today’s contest.

Have a good Memorial Day, everyone.

Judging the Royals