Games » New York Yankees
May21How Felipe Paulino is improving
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
If you like what Felipe Paulino did in Monday’s game, thank the advanced-metric guys the Royals employ. They’re the ones that alerted Dayton Moore that Paulino had some interesting numbers and might be worth checking out. Turns out they were right.
After the game, pitching coach Dave Eiland said Paulino is still a work in progress, but is learning to read swings (figure out what the next pitch should be based on the hitter’s reaction to the last pitch), throw his secondary pitches behind in the count (throw off-speed when hitters expect fastballs), stay on the attack (no nibbling) and trust his stuff and his defense (believe if he throws strikes, good things will happen).
Last night, Felipe Paulino threw strikes and good things happened.
Game notes
First inning: Humberto Quindero blocked a slider in the dirt with a runner on third base to save a run. This is a play that goes largely unnoticed by fans — until it’s not made. Yankees catcher Russell Martin failed to make the same play in the 8th inning with Irving Falu on third base and gave the Royals a sixth run.
Giving up a run is bad enough, but failing to make this play can rob the pitcher of the confidence to throw his nastiest pitch when he needs it most. I know I’ve made this point many times before, but it’s a big deal and worth pointing out every time it happens — and Humberto did it again with a runner on third in the third inning.
Third inning: Jarrod Dyson led off the inning with a walk and then stole second base — easily. That put a Royals runner on second base for the first time in the game. (Two runners passed second — Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas after Mike’s home run — but Dyson was the first runner to stop at second.) A runner on second often requires a meeting on the mound. When that happens, it’s usually so the catcher and pitcher can go over the sign system they’re going to use with a runner who can possibly relay signs to the hitter. When this happens to the Royals, you often see Chris Getz join the meeting to make sure he knows what system they’re using so he can pass the signs along to first base.
Immediately after the meeting, Eric Hosmer hit a double to left. When a hitter is struggling, one of the first signs they’re coming out of it might be hitting the ball hard the other way. It means they’re staying back, they’re waiting well and keeping the front side closed. Sunday, Jeff Francoeur was hitting the ball the other way and Alex Gordon picked up two hits to left field in this game. Most of the time, hitting the ball the other way is a good sign.
After Hosmer doubled, Butler was intentionally walked, then Alex Gordon walked and Alcides Escobar came to the plate with two outs and the bases loaded. Esky appeared to expand his zone when he didn’t have to and hit a ground ball to third.
Good hitters know the pitcher is in trouble in this situation and wait for a hittable pitch. Impatient hitters want to come through so badly they chase marginal pitches. Alcides is having an All-Star type year, but this was a situation where he appeared to put too much pressure on himself to succeed.
In the bottom of the third the Yankees had runners on first and second with Curtis Granderson at the plate. Granderson got to a 3-2 count, but Yankees manager Joe Girardi did not put the runners in motion. A lot of managers will not put runners on first and second in motion with nobody out for fear of a line-drive triple play.
Paulino walked Granderson to load the bases, then struck out Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano. With Raul Ibanez at the plate, Quintero and Felipe had another meeting on the mound. Felipe covered his face with his glove as they talked. Pitchers do this to prevent lip reading by the opposition.
Fourth inning: Chris Getz singled, took a hard turn and then saw something that made him try for second (no idea what it was). Replays showed Chris probably beat the throw, but was called out. Getz reinjured his ribs and later left the game, replaced by Irving Falu.
The managing rule of thumb is to put offense on the field when you’re behind and defense on the field when you’re ahead. Using Falu over Johnny Giavotella might be an indication of how the Royals continue to view Gio’s defense.
In the bottom of the fourth with Eric Chavez on second, Paulino threw a wild pitch. No way to find out unless The Star decides to fly me to New York, but it looked like a possible cross-up. Quintero did not get his mitt turned the right way for the pitch’s location — down and to his right — which might indicate he expected something else. Either that or he just missed the damn thing.
Fifth inning: Jeff Francoeur pulled two balls foul and then locked up for a called strike out on a pitch low and away. When a hitter pulls a ball way foul, he’s opening up quickly, so something low and away on subsequent pitches is a good bet.
Bottom of the fifth and Derek Jeter lined out to Jarrod Dyson standing in right center. Jeter did the same thing in seventh. Credit outfield coach Doug Sisson for analyzing Jeter’s spray chart correctly and Felipe Paulino for hitting his spot with the pitch.
Sixth inning: Alex Gordon on third, Irving Falu on first, Humberto Quintero hits a grounder to Yankees first baseman, Mark Teixeira. Gordon started home, but did not go, Teixeira took the out at first and Dyson ended the inning by grounding out to third.
Another one of those “no way to know without being there” deals, but this might’ve been a mistake by Alex. With one down and the double play in order, the contact play — break for home on contact — is often on. The thinking goes this way: if the defense throws the runner out at the plate, you still have a runner on second base and the inning isn’t over. If the defense attempts to turn two and fails, you score a run.
The worst of all possible options is for a runner on third to stand there and watch the defense end the inning with a double play, which is what Alex risked by staying at third. Teixeira probably could’ve turned the double play if he’d ignored Alex, but he made a mistake by checking the runner at third before looking to second. With Quintero running, there was a good chance of turning two.
Royals Brayan Pena demonstrates throwing to second with Lee Judge
Kansas City Royals catcher Brayan Pena demonstrates to the Star's Lee Judge how to throw to second base on a steel attempt. 5/17/12 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Paulino
Moustakas
Francoeur
Joel Kallem
1 year agoStarting pitching is coming alive and the defense is doing its job. Now if the bullpen can get back to what it was doing and the hitting can pick up in clutch situations, the team could become what we have longed for over the past years. Cudos especially go to Chen and Paulino for their recent efforts.
Kristen Fleharty
1 year agoCan we play all of our games on the road?
(kidding of course)
Larry Tindle
1 year agoLee, MBL Tonight just did a split screen of Hosmer batting this year and last year. He has a much larger leg kick this year which they feel is affecting his timing.
Great game tonight.
Lee Judge
1 year agoJoel: When the Royals get starting pitching you see what this team can become.
Kristen: Maybe Ned can talk to the schedule-makers.
Larry: I’d think Kevin Seitzer would be all over that, but I’ll ask about it when they return.
Larry Tindle
1 year agoLee: I would also think Kevin would be all over it, just thought it was interesting. The examples they showed, he was definently late getting his foot down.
Just looked at the standings and no one in the Central has a winning record at home.
Jay Hall
1 year agoGlad to see credit given for the advanced metric guys allowing the Royals to “buy low” on Paulino. This is the type of thing the Royals have to do if they are going to be able to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, and other big money clubs. Not saying the advanced metric guys can automatically find a Paulino type guy every year (although it’d be nice) but finding one every few years, or a Rule V guy like Adcock, who seems to have some ML value is just another way to stay competitive without breaking the bank.
Joel Kallem
1 year agoJay, you are right on with your analysis. Fans who expect Glass to “buy” us a championship are unrealistic. We can expect him to fund the team at a reasonable level, but he will never be able to match the Yankees, Red Soxs, Cubs, etc. dollar for dollar because of the economics of the various regions. Our “fans” will never pay the price for tickets, etc. that are charged in these parks, nor will they ever get the same level of media revenue. So we have to find a way to uncover hidden gems like the two you cite.
Brian Robinson
1 year agoI made a comment 5 days ago on Eric Hosmer moving around in the box … “Is it me or does it look like Eric Hosmer is more quiet with his feet? Seemed to me like he had happy feet for a short period possibly showing signs of pressing.”
I think Eric has stopped shuffling so much and now just sort of rocks from back to front. I’m very pleased with his progress and think he’s on the verge. He’s been showing patience at the plate and picking his pitches to hit. I give him a pass on that first at bat last night because the weather was so lousy.
Lee Judge
1 year agoTalking with the quantitative research and analysis people (and that mouthful is why I call them the stat-guys) was interesting and, now that I know who they are, I hope to continue those discussions.
One of the things I took away from those talks (and here’s hoping I understood the point) is that one of the goals is to identify undervalued players. (Jin Wong likes the term “players with a lot of upside” instead, but what does he know? He thinks quantitative research and analysis is better than “stat guy.”)
Anyway…on-base percentage was undervalued and now it’s not. Smart small-market teams have to look elsewhere for a bargain.
So it’s not that the Royals don’t care about OBP, they recognize it’s worth, but so does everybody else. If the stat guys see something interesting, the scouts take a look. It also works the other way around.
But there doesn’t seem to be any one number you can look at and pronounce someone or good or bad player. It’s a blend of a lot of numbers and eyes on the player.
However they’ve done it—eyes or metrics—the Royals have identified some players, Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Nate Adcock and Felipe Paulino (to name a few) who have worked out well for them.
The stat guys also say they miss on players, just like everybody else.
Ben Weddle
1 year agoLee, I really like your return to pointing out the nuances and thought progressions of the players and managers. It’s also refreshing to hear about the mistakes that are made and the consequences, without delving in to percentage points. It brings the human element into play and offers insight beyond statistics.
That said, and completely off topic…we have the most comically inept announcer in the history of baseball broadcasting. He’s Bob Uecker without the charm. I can only paraphrase but in last nights post game, Rex made some arcane reference to the Royals, getting a defeat they can breath in…? I can only liken it to a hung over college freshman, who neglected to study for his oral exam and is left with only threadbare platitudes to fill the air time with. He’s always a beat behind, flailing about in his effort to remain relevant.
If the Royals management has pinned us with this clown, might I suggest making him the “cause celebre.” Let start up “Rex’s Wonderdogs” and designate sectional seating for his “fans” to sit in. I’m seeing marketing opportunities galore from t-shirts bearing the image of his empty stare following his questioning of Kirk Gibson, as to why he was never on an All Star team, (I thought Gibson was going to disassemble him) to new concession specials featuring “Wonderdogs” which sport a dyed red sprig of sauerkraut. If we can’t get rid of this guy, then let’s rally around him. Every team needs a mascot.
Jon Worley
1 year agoNo Royals comments (why jinx anything?), but just an observation about learning the game. Here in the DC area where I live, there are three A ball teams within an hour, three AA teams with 90 minutes and a rookie league team thrown in for good measure. AND a wood-bat collegiate summer league with three teams that play within 20 minutes of my house.
In the last week, we’ve sat just behind the dugout in Frederick and Bowie, and my boys have been able to see and hear coaches and managers teach their players how to play the game. When you get that close (especially at the close-in minor league parks), you can hear the umps’ communication (on one play, the home plate ump “called” watching for the tag-up at second, which allowed the other ump to get in position to watch a potential tag at third) and the defense talking. If you’re really lucky, on occasion the manager will actually give some pointers to a polite child who has come down to the gate between innings.
While there aren’t so many minor league opportunities in and around K.C., there are plenty of high-level amateur games around everywhere, and those ought to be quite instructive for kids (and their parents) who want to learn the game.
As a side, since reading all the posts on time to the plate, I’ve noticed that some minor league teams time pitchers and some do not. But at least I could tell the guys why that base coach had a stopwatch. I got to look cool and smart for about 10 seconds, which is ten better than my average.
Jeff Circle
1 year agoJust watched your video with Pena and I was taken back to last week in Texas. Is anybody happier to be playing baseball in the big leagues than Brayan Pena? When Broxton closed out that game against Texas, Pena just had the biggest smile on his face. It just makes you feel good some times to see a guy who expresses like that, where I think you can see he knows just how good he’s got it to be doing this for a living.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year agoBen, Jon, Jeff, good stuff.
Lee, any idea how comfortable the stat guys are with their in-house defensive metrics? I know the new info is proprietary and kept close to the vest, but do they at least think their newer information is a little better, better, or a bunch better than in previous years?
Lee Judge
1 year agoThe in-house stat guys say they see everything the public sees and more. They also develop some of their own metrics, which they’re understandably reluctant to talk about, and now have access to field FX.
They seem to feel defensive stats are getting better, but neither group (stats or scouts) relies solely on their information.
The numbers guys check out what the scouts see and vice versa. A huge advantage if you see some interesting numbers and can fly an experienced out to see for himself.
Lee Judge
1 year agoJeff: What you see from Brayan Pena is absolutely genuine. He’s that happy to be here and that happy to see his teammates succeed.
His background—defecting from Cuba—tells a lot of the story. Brayan doesn’t have too many bad days: he’s in the USA and playing big league baseball. What’s there to complain about?
By the way: Brayan reads the web site because he likes hearing the game described from the players’ point of view, but doesn’t understand why people have to be so mean to each other in the comments.
We could all learn a lesson from BP.
Lee Judge
1 year agoJon: You’re right, baseball does not have to be played on the major league level to be interesting. I always liked the minor leagues for the reasons you described: closer to the action and fewer distractions from the game.
One of the goals of this web site—and probably the main one—was to make any game more interesting. The more you know, the more you see—plus anything that makes you look cool in front of your kids can’t be all bad.
Lee Judge
1 year agoBen: Thanks. I’ll leave the Wonderdog campaign to you and stick to what you enjoy: trying to analyze the game from the player and coach perspective.
We sometimes get off track with arguments about metrics, but that isn’t the purpose of this site. That point of view is widely available and handled better elsewhere.
I’ll try to stick to what the players and coaches have to teach us about the game.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year agoNoticed Will Smith called up, looks to be a replacement for Ev Teaford. Ned Yost said he would make a move.
Lee Judge
12 months agoGetz is on the DL.
Brian Rose
12 months agoI like Hosmer and hope he gets it going. one thing i find interesting is when the opposing team hits right to our guys it is good positioning by our fielders but when Hos hits right to the other team it is bad luck… I figure some bad luck but the other team has there guys standing where they are standing for a reason right? Are teams pitching and playing Hos differently and he is not adjusting? just wondering if you can touch on it. Thanks!!!
Jim Fetterolf
12 months agoLooks like Irving Falu gets a good look at starting 2B. I like to see an “old” guy who has paid his dues get a chance to play and draw a nice paycheck. Falu has delivered so far. Hope Chris gets healthy soon, having a good year.
George Smith
12 months agoJudge,
I would love to pick the brains of the stat guys and see what they were thinking on Yuni? I am not sure if a stat exists that would be positive for him…anyway, I digress.
1)Do you see the Royals going for Gausman from LSU in the draft? If not, who else?
2)Is there any realistic chance that, if Myers is ready, that Francouer is either traded or benched? I just cant see Moore parting with his favorite mancrush.
3)Paulino is a stud. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Nice find.
4)Why Smith over Verdugo? Verdugo is on the 40-man, I figured that was the easier move.
Lee Judge
12 months agoBrian: Fair point on Hosmer. I happen to know how they’re pitching Jeter and where they want the ball hit, but don’t have the same information about Hosmer.
But it’s fair to assume that some of Hosmer’s lineouts are good planning and execution by the other team.
That’s one of the reasons David Ortiz encouraged Eric to move in the box: to change the hitting lanes.
Lee Judge
12 months agoGeorge: I’m under the impression that the stat guys weren’t the main promoters of Betancourt.
The Royals needed someone who could play 2B/SS/3B and, as I understand it, the other possible candidates were older and wanted more money.
The Royals are very aware of Yuni’s shortcomings, but felt they knew how to fix the range-to-his-left problem, knew he would be a good fit in the clubhouse and that he was willing to play in KC.
I think they were OK with getting the starting shortstop from a playoff team as a backup, despite whatever failings Yuni had.
As for your other questions: I’ve really got no special information on who the Royals might draft, why they brought up Smith or how soon they might bring up Myers.
I’m assuming they’d like to see Myers do it at Triple A for a while.
Jim Fetterolf
12 months agoLee, on Myers, I think they see him as a CF in the future, at least short term. Of the three OF positions, that may have the most immediate need.
On Yuni, I would point out that he has a net positive BB/K ratio, showing that the coaches were able to address one longstanding issue.
Beyond that, Falu is doing a good job and will complicate things when Yuni and Getz come off the DL simply because he has much more experience at all four IF positions and two OF positions than anyone else on the team and is also a switch-hitter who is hitting a little. Good problem to have.