Games » Texas Rangers
May15If they find some starting pitching ...
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
When the Red Sox were in Kansas City last week, I made a video with Boston bench coach Tim Bogar (it’s posted on the home page), and I asked him what he thought of the Royals. I wouldn’t have asked Bogar that question on camera if he hadn’t already told me what he thought off camera. No coach in his right mind is going to belittle another team publicly, and I wouldn’t put Tim in the position of lying about how talented he thought the Royals were if he didn’t really think it.
Bogie said he thought the Royals’ position players were very talented and the bullpen was as good as any team’s. He said that if the Royals can find some starting pitching, they could have a team that can compete right now.
This road trip showed what he meant. If the starters give the Royals a chance and, even better, hand a lead to the bullpen, this looks like a competitive team.
Game notes
Top of the first: Eric Hosmer was on second base after a Colby Lewis error. Billy Butler grounded out to the shortstop and Hosmer made a base-running mistake. He broke for third base. That allowed the Rangers shortstop, Alberto Gonzalez, to throw him out and cut down the lead runner.
Butler was safe on the fielder’s choice, but he couldn’t score from first on Jeff Francoeur’s two-out double. With two outs, the runner can break right away, but Billy still couldn’t make it home. Mike Moustakas was hit by a pitch, Brayan Pena doubled and Chris Getz singled, so ultimately, Billy’s lack of foot speed didn’t cost the Royals, and they scored four runs in the first.
Bottom of the first: Kansas City starter Vin Mazzaro pitched to Josh Hamilton as if the Royals didn’t have a four-run lead and walked him. If you walk a hitter, it’s 100 percent guaranteed he will make it to first base. Throw strikes to a hitter, and you will get him out most of the time — even if it’s Josh Hamilton.
Top of the second: Jarrod Dyson led off with a single, but Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis was just too quick to the plate for Jarrod to steal. But speed still played a role. Lewis was worried about Dyson and threw the ball away on a pick-off attempt.
As pitchers speed up their delivery times — making base stealing more difficult — the Royals are putting more emphasis on advancing the runner whenever a good opportunity present itself. The base runners have practiced reading pitches in the dirt. They want to be able to break for the next base before the ball hits the ground.
Top of the third: The Royals led 5-0, and Mike Moustakas made it 6-0 with a home run. It was Mike’s fifth homer of the season, and he’s also batting .310. Fans wanted to send Moose down when he struggled last season, but the Royals stuck with him. Team officials felt he needed to be here to develop, and their patience was rewarded.
Bottom of the fourth: Hamilton singled, but he took the ball the other way. The Royals probably were willing to give away opposite-field singles to Hamilton if it meant keeping the ball in the park. With one out, David Murphy doubled into the right-field corner. Jeff Francoeur was over in the right center gap, so that meant the Royals didn’t expect Murphy to pull the ball down the line. And that meant Mazzaro probably missed a spot with that pitch.
Sure enough, a replay showed catcher Brayan Pena setting up for a low-and-away pitch. The ball drifted back over the plate, allowing Murphy to hit it away from Francoeur.
Mike Napoli made the second out, and the left-handed Mitch Moreland came to the plate facing a defensive shift. Moreland beat the shift by hitting the ball the other way, which scored Murphy. Another look at the replay showed that this time Mazzaro seemed to his spot, low and away. It didn’t seem to be the ideal location when you want a hitter to pull the ball, but the pitch was a change-up.
The Royals probably thought Moreland would reach out and pull the ball, weakly, to the right side. Instead, Moreland stayed back and drove the ball hard to the left side. So Murphy’s double probably was the result of poor pitching, and Moreland’s single probably was good hitting.
Bottom of the fifth: Ian Kinsler singled and stole second base. Vin Mazzaro took more than 1.6 seconds to get the ball home, so Brayan Pena had no shot at throwing out the runner. Kinsler then stole third base. It did not appear that Kinsler had a huge lead, and the middle infielders had him stationary (it’s their job to cut down the runner’s lead and make sure he’s not moving when the pitch is delivered to the plate).
What Kinsler had was a huge jump. Mazzaro checked the runner, turned his head to the plate, paused and delivered the ball home. All this took more than 2.1 seconds and Kinsler broke when Mazzaro turned his head. I don’t know whether Mazzaro ever doubles up on his look back, but if he doesn’t, runners will feel free to leave as soon as he turns his head toward home plate.
Mazzaro’s inattention cost him a run when Josh Hamilton hit a sacrifice fly, scoring Kinsler.
Top of the ninth: Hosmer was thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double. Replays showed he probably reached around the tag, but the umpire called him out anyway. Umpires often call runners out if the throw beats the runner — which is lazy umpiring. The play is not complete until the tag is made.
I would like to hear what Royals first-base coach Doug Sisson thought of Hosmer’s attempt at a double. Do the Royals take a different approach to tack on runs late in the game? I have heard ballplayers say that’s a good time to be aggressive, but I don’t know whether it’s a team policy.
Sisson’s signs
As each new hitter comes to the plate, Sisson, who also is the Royals’ outfield coach, goes to the top of the dugout steps and positions the Kansas City outfielders. (I’ve written about this before, but it’s definitely worth repeating.) If you’re out at Kauffman Stadium, you can watch this:
If Doug takes one hand and makes a chopping motion straight up and down, he is asking the outfielder to play “straight up.” Straight up means that if there were a line from first base running through second base, all the way to the outfield wall, Alex Gordon would be standing on it. The line would run from home to second for center field, and third base to second base for right field.
Doug has to stand in the same spot all the time so he gets the same view of the outfielders. He picks something in the background (and has to determine what that is on the road) and lines the outfielder up in relationship to the background.
If Doug uses one hand to move the outfield, he is asking for five steps in that direction. If he uses two hands, he’s asking for 10 steps. If he puts one hand on his chest, Doug is asking for five steps in, two hands, 10 steps in.
If Doug puts his hand on his head, he is telling the outfield to hit the cutoff man and keep the double play in order. Say the Royals lead by two runs in the ninth inning with an opponent’s runner on second and one out. The Royals don’t care if the run scores. They want to keep the tying run out of scoring position. So Doug will signal the outfield to hit the cutoff man. The other team sees this, too. So they may send the runner home, knowing there won’t be a throw.
If Doug puts his hand behind his head, he’s telling the outfield “no doubles.” That means back up so nothing can land behind the fielder — if the ball is over his head, it’s out of the park. Once again, that is used when the tying or winning run is at the plate and the Royals want to keep a runner out of scoring position.
The positioning of the outfield will change slightly with the count. If the hitter gets ahead in the count, the outfield will play him to pull. If the pitcher gets ahead in the count, the outfield will play the batter to hit the ball the other way. Watch Sisson position the outfield and see whether the pitcher gets the ball hit to right spot.
(And there is a video on this if you want to see Doug explain it better than I just did. Plus he spits tobacco about every five seconds, which is pretty amusing.)
Baseball player pressure and the 30 day rule with Lee Judge and Tim Bogar
Boston Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar continues his conversation with Lee Judge on the pressure that baseball players work under. 5/15/12 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Mazzaro
Moustakas
Butler
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoRoyals are playing excellent baseball right now. They are being aggressive in the right places, and the breaks are finally falling their way. Hosmer is showing signs of breaking out of his “slump” (he has been hitting the ball hard, but right at people - now he is starting to “miss” them).
The defense continues to make all the expected plays and throws a couple of gems in each night for good measure.
The bullpen has been lights out for the last week to 10 days. Collins was great in his two innings with a sharp curve ball that left the Texas batters befuddled. Everyone else in the pen is doing his job.
Now if we can get some starting pitching (five or six solid innings where we are still in the game), we could be back over .500 by the middle of June. Who would have “thunk” that right after our 12 game losing streak? I’m anxious to see if Paulino and Hoch can pitch with some consistency behind Chen. If they can, we can hope for either our emergency 4 or 5 to give us one good game in a cycle until Sanchez gets back.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoBy the way Lee, Collins, Majares, and Crow should get credit for a hold and Holland credit for a save.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“I’m anxious to see if Paulino and Hoch can pitch with some consistency behind Chen.”
That’s the question, Joel, and the key to the team to at least win 81 games this year. If they can settle in and deliver Quality Starts we have a chance to be good.
Offense looks like it’s waking up, Dyson setting the table and distracting pitchers, and the Handsome Frenchman and his little brother The Hoz look to be heating up a little.
The bullpen is locked and loaded and the defense is, I think, better even than we imagined, Getz looking rangier, Moose surprising with what may be a Gold Glove in a year or two, and Escobar making me wonder what planet he is from. Dyson is getting better with routes, Frenchy has the best RF arm in the game, and Gordon looks even better than last year.
Agree on the bullpen. Maybe a hold point per inning pitched? Collins ripped the heart out of Texas when I was still worried about the game, as impressive a relief performance as I’ve seen.
Good posts, Joel, appreciate the thoughts.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 1 month agoPeople sometimes ask me why Tim Collins is my favorite Royals pitcher, from now on I’ll just show them that 6th and 7th inning. Gotta love that curve.
Kevin Flanagan
1 year, 1 month agoJarrod Dyson has been the ideal lead off man so far. He’s now scored 17 times in just 18 games and he’s not just getting on base, nearly every at bat he’s seeing 5+ pitches and really working the pitcher.
It was nice to see him rip a couple of balls last night, too.
Toten Kopf
1 year, 1 month agoIt’s funny watching the fans in KC. It’s almost as if they have to learn how to be fans again after ignoring the team so long.
Team loses: they stink and ‘here we go again’.
Team wins: We’re a pitcher or two away from the Series!
Starting pitching has been this team’s weak point from the start and it’s going to continue that way for the foreseeable future. I would be seriously surprised if the Royals traded at this point. If we’re still in it on July 31st then maybe - but 2012 wasn’t ‘the year’ to start with.
Jeff Frost
1 year, 1 month agoGreat insights Lee. Kevin, totally agree on Jarrod. I think Cain will have difficulty getting his spot back. The pen is UNBELIEVABLE! One thing I would like to see is for us to go after Oswalt! Let’s go for the playoffs this year. The attendance is up and will continue to go up if we keep winning. To have a potential #1 stopper at the top takes pressure of Chen, Hoch, etc… Bogie hit it on the head, we are a starting pitching staff away from being dangerous. With Duffy done- we NEED OSWALT!!!!
Donald Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoFor the first time I thought I saw Hosmer’s hitting woes get to him. It looked like he wasn’t in the game when he tried to go to third on Butler’s hit. Then, when he missed that ground ball that went over to Getz and he threw the runner out - he didn’t look like he was ready and maybe his thoughts were wondering. I know any ball player can make mistakes and errors but these are things that we aren’t used to seeing from Eric. I’m glad he was able to get a couple of hits because he has really been put through the wringer and it5’s surprising that he has held up as good as he has.
John Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoWith Dyson growing into the leadoff role, I’m having the same thought Jeff is - what happens to Cain when he returns?
We do still have an upgrade coming down the road - Perez will hopefully be back in June. That in itself may improve the pitching to a degree.
Steve Yeakel
1 year, 1 month agoI hope that moving Wil Myers to 3B is not for Dayton to showcase him before trading him or Moose to the Braves to replace Chipper Jones. We should never trade our own very special players, you don’t get that many, even if it might net you an exciting young starting pitcher. I would rather that we pick someone from the bullpen to move to starter now, we have so many good bullpen arms. I throw out Tim Collins for consideration, he seems to have 3 plus pitches and now also seems to have overcome his walk bugaboo, which sounds like a successful starter to me if he has the stamina. He is small so stamina might be a question, but Tim Lincecum is also small. Let us not throw away one of our very best prospects, especially when we are not just one starter away from a championship team.
Aaron Bailey
1 year, 1 month agoDonald, I thought some of the same things about Hosmer; not that he wasn’t ready, but that his frustrastions are growing. On the ground ball he missed, I hoped to see him laughing and cheering Getz for his great play, but instead he looked just mad at himself (even though his defense has continued to be mostly spectacular this past month).
And on that play, I think Mazzaro needs some credit for continuing to hustle to first even after the ball bounced off Hosmer’s glove, I think a lot of pitchers would have given up on the play at that point.
As for the Royals pitching, of course they need it, but that’s because everyone needs it and it’s not really available. Oswalt made it pretty clear in the winter he wants a definite contender and preferably a NL team (maybe Yost, Frenchy, and Broxton can take him hunting on an off-day and convince him differently though). I’d like to see a trade for KC-area native Shawn Marcum (who should be the Royals’ prime free agent target this off-season as he’d be the most affordable of the better free agent pitchers), but it’d depend on how much the Brewers demand for him (maybe they’d want Cain back now that Dyson’s playing so well?)
And my last thought is to agree with Derek: Tim Collins was awesome last night, it looked like he was pitching to minor leaguers.
John Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoTim Collins’ pitching last night reminded me of Soria and his killer curve. It was a spectacle to watch!
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoWhat really encourages me is the battle for positions from within. No one can try to slide by. In the past our starters didn’t feel that pressure and sometimes appeared to be just going through the motions. Now we get to discuss will Cain get his job back from Dyson. Getz and Gio continue to battle for playing time. Wil Myers seems to be getting set up to challenge everyone. Even the bullpen is on guard. Lots of people in Omaha just waiting for their chance. Mazzaro, Adcock, Teaford, Crow, Montgomery, Lamb etc. just waiting and pushing the starters. Great time to be a Royals fan.
I think we are more than one starter away from contention, more like two but if people step up who knows.
Tim became a favorite of my wife and I when we saw him in 2011 in Spring Training. Can he hold up to starting? Lincecum has so far but is starting to show wear and tear this year in my opinion. Tim is a good example of what can happen when a player listens to a pitching coach. Simple mechanical change and the walks have gone way down.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoAfter every game I check my scoring against the MLB.com web site and they didn’t award any holds or a save.
I checked the Star’s box score this morning—same thing.
Here’s a definition of what constitutes a hold:
A hold is awarded to a relief pitcher who meets the following three conditions:
I’ll check the scoring again when I get to the stadium.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoJeff, Oswald is not an answer, but a short-term patch (with a bad back). Despite their exciting and good play, this is not the year to try for all the marbles. We might make the playoffs because of the weak Central Division, but realistically we are at least a year away from truly contending. Let’s not waste valuable future resources or cash that could be used for signing Moose or Hos to a long term contract. Oswald at best is nearing the end, and at worst would be a disaster.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoI agree that fans tend to get on an emotional roller coaster with their favorite teams. That’s often encouraged by the media: we’re losing, everyone should be fired—we’re winning, break out some champagne.
I don’t think the Royals are out of the woods and the main problem will probably be starting pitching—but I do think you can begin to see the plan come together.
I’ve always been high on this defense, figured they’d find a way to score some runs and right now the pen is lights out. (When’s the last time you were eager for the team to go to the pen?) They probably can’t keep this level of efficiency up (let’s all remember that when they hit another rough spot), but, like I said, we’re beginning to see how this can work.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoSome specific stuff:
Joel’s right, there are rumors that Oswalt is not 100% healthy. Realistic projection put this team at, a little above or a little below .500, so the Royals probably didn’t think this was the time to blow a wad of cash on a possibly-injured free agent.
I haven’t talked to Hosmer in a week, but he never seemed discouraged or down. He mainly seemed disgusted: how can I keep hitting that many balls at people? I wondered if taking off for second last night was part of that frustration: he finally gets a couple hits and wants to do something more.
Which brings us back to the base running. The Royals agree that it got out of hand at the beginning and they had to dial things back, but that’s part of having a very young team. (I know Francoeur’s in his late twenties, but he still plays ball like he’s eleven—which is part of what makes him good.)
Just like Ned stuck with Alcides and Moose and now Hosmer, they’re sticking with this plan because they think it will work in the long run. Just like those players, the team needs to go through some tough times to get where they want to be. Make your base running mistakes now, figure out what you can and can’t do, but learn from those mistakes and get better.
Larry, I agree: it’s nice to see some depth and have people feel pressure to adjust. Collins is a great example. I’ve heard how that conversation went and it sounds like Dave Eiland got in Tim’s face about the necessity of change.
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month agoThe Royals’ baserunning exploits have been discussed at length through the season, but I wonder what people in this forum thought about Ian Kinsler’s work on the basepaths last night. In the fifth inning, Kinsler leads off with a single, and with Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre coming up, he promptly steals second, and then third! This with his team trailing 6-2. I thought it was pretty ballsy. If he’d been thrown out and any of those guys launched one into the seats, Kinsler would have a lot of explaining to do, don’t you think?
I like aggressive baserunning, and Kinsler is a disruptive force to be sure. The Rangers, however, are a team that can afford to play station-to-station on offense because they have so many guys who can go yard. The Royals, however, don’t have that kind of power and sometimes need to give their offense a little boost with the running game. But during that fifth inning, the Rangers were using the running game very much like the Royals, and it got them a run.
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month ago…and by launching one into the seats, I meant a ball, not a bat ;-)
Chuck Smith
1 year, 1 month agoJim, I’d have to think with Mazz taking 2.1 seconds, they’d be more inclined to be upset if he didn’t take the bases.
Aaron Bailey
1 year, 1 month agoGood point Jim - I saw Kinsler’s two stolen bases to be exactly what Lee has been talking about: a veteran recognizing a mathematical certainy. As Lee said in the notes, Mazzaro was slow to the plate and Kinsler took 2nd easily. Then Mazarro glanced at Kinsler once and then ignored him, I noticed Kinsler take a couple of stutter steps like he couldn’t believe it was going to be that easy, but it was. Something that’s easily fixed on Mazarro’s end, but also something (like Lee said) that the Royal’s young players are still figuring out, in what situations can they make it and when they can’t. It’s both fun and frustrating to watch them learn, and we’ve just got to keep waiting for them to learn and therefore play like the Rangers have been the past few years (mixing power and speed to win any type of game).
And let’s keep the Rangers in mind while complaining about our starting pitching woes. Of the Rangers starters, exactly who would you consider a true ace? Darvish might become one, but it’s too soon to tell. Wilson probably was one, but remember how long that took him (he was wild closer for a couple of years). Holland struggled early just like Duffy was at putting hitters away. Colby Lewis, while not great he does eat innings usually, was a refugee from the Japanese leagues. My point (as others have alluded to) is that since the Royals won’t be able to buy an ace, they have to wait to develop one or take the plunge and trade for one (which is risky, look at the Cleveland Ubaldo Jimenez trade), so IF they can just get Bruce Chen-like consistency from all 5 from start to start, they can still contend this year, next year, and in the forseeable future until an ace or two do magically appear (and the Cardinals proved last year, once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen).
And this is more in reference to Sam Mellinger always saying we have a 6 year window: I disagree. I think the system is set up to get constant waves. Starling and Cuthbert should be appearing right when Hosmer and Moustakas are getting too expensive and there is at least one super-talented pitcher (who has a chance to develop into a quality major leaguer) at every level. So I think the future should stay bright (I know that’s way too positive for some Royal fans, but oh well, they just swept Texas and I’m feeling good about them).
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoI hope Melinger is wrong about his window, but teams often use what would be the next wave as trade bait to fill in holes to win now. DM will be faced with that problem soon. I hope he takes the path of putting consistently competitive teams on the field year after year after year rather than mortgaging our future for a perceived window of opportunity. The playoffs are a crap shoot and a first round exit or two won’t feel so good while waiting during the next rebuilding project.
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month ago“As Brendan and I have both tried to say many times, it’s not black and white. It’s not aggressive baserunning or station-to-station. I like the stolen base when attempted by the right baserunner in the right situation.”
How is this different than what anyone else is saying?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month agoYep, JW, just ask the Brewers, one game ahead of us in the win column with Zack ready to go FA and the farm system empty. My guess on GMDM is that what he is looking at is Mission: Dynasty. That’s the vision he learned in Atlanta from the guy who brought KC their last great baseball teams.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoFrancouer is good? Dude is OPS’ing .651 for the season and getting on-base at a .303 clip (.313 for his career).
And now they are moving their best hitting prospect in the minors (and arguably better than Moose or Hosmer were valued) off of RF all because they want Moore’s favorite player in the lineup batting 5th. Every. Single. Game. And probably for the next 5 years after his next extension.
Judge and Moore think a lifetime OBP of .313 (.303 for you “what have you done for me lately, Jim”) is a “good player”.
Frankly, it’s valuations like this which give me ZERO confidence more can properly evaluate major league players. If he wants to wait until April 15, 2013 to promote Myers for service time reasons, then fine. But if Jeff Francouer is blocking one of the finest hitting prospects this organization has produced in a long time, well, that’s just a travesty. And frankly, a firable offense.
Francouer needs to get out of Wil Myers way, not the other way around. Another bad decision by Moore. And I won’t even get into the 2B situation right now.
OT, Judge what is the team’s feelings on KC All-Stars? Seems this year there are some very deserving position players(Moose and Escobar for sure) and pitchers (Crow, Broxton, Collins). What say you?
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month agoSmith, do you only judge players by their hitting stats?
Of course, you know Myers can always move back to RF, right?
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month agoI don’t know that GMDM would be inclined to trade what are now recognized as future stars, such as Odorizzi, Myers and Starling, to acquire starting pitchers now. Starting pitchers are already (way!) too costly - $12 million would be a bargain and even $20 million is below the ceiling - and when you factor in the loss of young talent it’s simply unaffordable. You also have to consider that adding a $20 million ace to a roster of players making low seven-figure salaries is not necessarily the best way to build team unity.
Pitchers develop slower than position players, and I’ve got to think that over the next year or two we’ll see some of these young arms turn into very solid starting pitching. That’s Job #1 for Dave Eiland. And as Aaron points out, once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.
I understand Mellinger’s thoughts regarding the six-year window. I mean, we’ve seen it before, and a lot of folks - occasionally Mellinger himself - regard these Royals as another edition of the same mediocrity but with better advertising. And yes, with the dreary futures of those previous teams, guys like Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran couldn’t wait to leave. I’m not so sure this team thinks the same way. If they turn into something special - and I really do think they will - they just might want to stay. I’m not saying they’d settle for an order of magnitude under market value, but everything points to them liking Kansas City and staying here if there is a reasonable opportunity to do so (“reasonable” at this juncture being undefined).
One of the factors that allows me to think that way is that for most top-flight athletes, playing sports is the least profitable thing they do - sponsorships and promotions far exceed their athletic income. Of course, we’re in flyover space, so I’m not sure how that will work out with the big sponsors, but you have to admit that good young talents like Moose, Hos, Duffy, Esky and Dyson could certainly appeal to mass markets.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoI’m with Jim, I’d rather the Royals were decent year after year than to blow it all on one shot.
I think that’s what happened after ‘85 and look how long it’s taken to recover.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“That’s Job #1 for Dave Eiland.”
According to a normally dependable source, Dave Eiland is breaking what is called the “cookie cutter” philosophy of handling pitching prospects and his views are in line with teams like SF, Ariz, Texas, and Tampa. Organizational philosophies have inertia and don’t turn on a dime, so it will take a year or two.
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month agoIsn’t that basically what GMDM has always talked about doing – stocking the farm system, so there’s a consistent wave of players to restock the team if the previous players move on (for whatever reason)? I know, with any GM, there’s never any guarantee that your prospects aren’t going to go away in a bright flash, but what has Dayton Moore ever done that would make someone think he’s going to trade them away? If anything, he’s easily one of the more patient GMs I’ve seen.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoWil Myers needs to be in RF every day in Omaha learning how to play OF. Let’s not forget he was just a catcher not long ago. But now, there jerking him around playing all over like some half ass utility player, not the arguably Top Hitting prospect in all of baseball. All for Jeff Francouer and Moore’s continued morbid fascination with him.
Look, Jeff Francouer is a great guy. He smiles well and he buys fans beer. I love the guy personally, but as a ballplayer he is a journeyman on his 4th team. And a lucky one at that, since Moore has such a fetish for him, Francouer will probably sign a lifetime extension here. Frenchy has average speed, a great arm, and an awful approach at the plate. He is above average defensively, below average offensively. He is replaceable and certainly should GTFO of Myers way the second Myers is deemed ready. But that obviously is not Moores thought process on this.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoGMs face a lot of pressure to win now. GMDM has not yet truly faced the dilema. It’s a fine line to walk and easy to say the right things now. It’s natural that owners and management to want to win more on their watch than they do build for a win on their successors’ watch. The Brewers are an example. So are Astros. And the Tigers.
Jim K., I don’t think we need to (nor should) worry about keeping players beyond their first year or two of free agency. At that point, you pay for peak performance for multiple years for a player who is most likely going to begin to decline. To me, the keys are to buy out the first year or two of free agency at a reasonable price (as we’ve done recently), which should capture the player’s prime years, and have the next wave on their way by the time they depart. Even at a “discount,” long-term contracts to 30-something free agents is a risk the Royals cannot afford to take. In the past you refer to, there was no plan other than let’s hope they stay and no next wave. We got little in return for the players and gave up a high draft pick if we’d just kept them.
Personally, I don’t think GMDM’s strength is evaluating the relative value of major league talent. But I think he’s very strong at evaluating amateur talent and developing it. Everybody has their strengths and weaknesses. And he doesn’t do it alone. He has a limited budget and he’s spent it building the prospect pipeline. I hope he has the guts to stick with his strengths and not bow to the pressure to win now. But it won’t be easy.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month agoGMDM’s thought process is likely that Wil Myers is too athletic to be groomed for the third easiest defensive position on the field, after LF and 1B, so should be test driven at higher value positions, just as Hosmer gets reps in RF. CF is obvious as Cain has a history of leg injuries and there is still the possibility that Jarrod Dyson is smoke and mirrors. Moose has a hammy twinge, Gordon isn’t looking good, and if Hosmer wasn’t the son of a God he’ld be in Omaha now.
“All for Jeff Francouer and Moore’s continued morbid fascination with him.”
I think we all know where the morbid Frenchy fascination lies.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month agoIs it me or does it look like Eric Hosmer is more quiet with his feet? Seemed to me like he had happy feet for a short period possibly showing signs of pressing. Overall I think Hosmer has made very solid contact and has just been unlucky. I guess when it rains it pours so hopefully once “the worm turns,” as my dad likes to say, the hits will come down in buckets. And hopefully that took place last night in Texas with some real hard hits.
Mike Moustakas continues to be the Royals best player thus far. Moose has gotten off to a great start during a time when he has struggled in the past. I’m more impressed with his defensive ability and have no problem with a hustle error here and there. As a matter of fact from what I’ve seen that would be my one word summation of Moose … hustle. He gets after it from the 1st inning until the final play of the game. Moustakas embodies everything the Royals should want to project.
And it’s not lost on me that another name comes to mind when the word ‘hustle’ is mentioned but I’m not even close to comparing any young player to a legend of the game. That’s just preposterous.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoHaving a player that can play multiple positions is extremely valuable. The hard choice was moving him from catcher and that’s now water under the bridge. I don’t see trying him at CF slowing down his development in RF. Or 3B, for that matter. Injuries are going to happen — having as many routes as possible to the MLs makes sense.
Jim K., I ‘m surprised at you picking on Gordon after one bad week. I’m guessing he’ll be okay.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoJim,
Quips aside, you can’t even make a case that Francouer is a good player. At least not with a straight face. Well, maybe you can because you are the ultimate troll, but even you, I hope can understand that a player like Francouer should never block a top prospect. There is a reason the guy is with his 4th team (and in all likelihood would be out of the majors if not for Moore).
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoJim uses small sample sizes to bash a good player like Gordon, yet he ignores huge sample sizes that undeniably show Yuni and Francouer are significantly below average. Classic. The dude is either a super-troll or just high as shit.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoIn 2011 Francoeur hit .285, 20 home runs, drove in 87 and had 22 stolen bases. Small market teams need to find undervalued players and they thought Francoeur might fit that definition.
They’ve got to keep him on track if they want to get those kind of numbers out of him again, but Jeff’s shown he can still do it.
That gets us back to the “he plays like an 11-year old, that’s part of what makes him good.” Francoeur’s enthusiasm is part of what makes him good, it can also be part of what makes him bad. He takes risks—some work out, some don’t.
But if the Royals can get the best out of him, they think he’s worth having around.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“Yuni and Francouer are significantly below average.”
Always enjoy the personal touch you folks bring to the board:)
I didn’t care for the Yuni signing, and it wasn’t part of the discussion, but is yet another “morbid fascination” with some.
As for the triumvirate of underachieving players at the moment, I will remind that careers don’t take the field and will also mention the “Worst Outfield Ever” and how long career averages can’t detect inflection points, so sometimes have quite little predictive value.
Always appreciate the publicity and eyeballs, that’s the name of the game.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoLee,
its cute that you still use RBI’s and batting average to evaluate players.
I think we have proven there are much better stats to use when evaluating a players offense, most notably on-base percentage. I wonder why you left Francouer’s OBP off of your “list”?
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoSo Jim,
Career averages mean nothing? How about ZiPS or Pecota projections? Care to discuss those? Or any number of tools we have to evaluate players?
Yes, Yuni and Francouer are bad at baseball. That is simply a fact. A proven one at that.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“In 2011 Francoeur hit .285, 20 home runs, drove in 87 and had 22 stolen bases.”
And he, like Melky and Gordon last year and Getz this year, made substantive changes in conditioning and in game. If he stays with the program, results should stay good.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“most notably on-base percentage”
wOBA has pretty much replaced OBP, which has too much of a contextual element to it as well as having the weakness of BA in seeing all hits as equal or walks to all players as equal. A walk to Billy is worth less than a walk to Dyson, just as an example.
“Or any number of tools we have to evaluate players?”
How did those tools do last year with the “Worst Outfield Ever”? How did they do with Bruce Chen? With Chris Getz this year? The tools you mention have a hard time with factual changes and tend to lag reality. That’s why real statisticians recognize inflection points which can change trends.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoFrenchy’s a hot topic because he’s more popular than his raw numbers would support. That’s life. Ultimately, MLB is about fans watching games and buying stuff and popular players advance that goal. Btw, Frenchy’s OBP is higher than the starting RF for the Phillies and the Tigers.
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month ago“Personally, I don’t think GMDM’s strength is evaluating the relative value of major league talent.”
I see this a lot. DM will draft/trade for a player, nurture them through the minors, and then magically has no idea of their value as a Major Leaguer. It’s an easy argument to make when the big club doesn’t perform well, but is it really true? His first few years required the signing of some free agents, and, yes, he overpaid for a few. But he’s also hit on signings as well. Can you honestly look at this major league club and say that it’s not better now than it has been since DM took over?
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoOk Jim, let’s use wOBA. I agree with where you are going so let us go down that road.
In WOBA speak an average hitter is around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor hitter would be under 0.300. Agree?
His wOBA is.340 which puts him at average. ZiPS(U) has him at .309 for the year, .318 for his career. So, Jim, how about that inflection point? Seems to be trending downward.
We can trade stats all day…they are on my side. You are just arguing for arguments sake if you think a player like Francouer should block a prospect like Myers.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago“Can you honestly look at this major league club and say that it’s not better now than it has been since DM took over?”
No, I cannot. It’s clearly better. I didn’t say it wasn’t.
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month agoSo why is he lacking at evaluating major league talent?
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoEvaluating “relative” talent. Maybe because he’s too close to the players among other reasons.
I said it wasn’t his strength. I didn’t say he was lacking. It’s not his background. He has less experience.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month agoAccording to fangraphs, average is .320.
“So, Jim, how about that inflection point?”
The inflection point produced a wOBA of .346 last year for Frenchy, which fangraphs’ glossary considers above average, after the inflection point, which was comprised of losing weight, changing his hitting approach, and modifying his swing over the winter with Kevin Seitzer. Gordon also changed swing and approach and stayed healthy. What did ZIPS have them at before the ‘11 season? Or Melky? I know what the stats said: Worst Outfield Ever.
“You are just arguing for arguments sake if you think a player like Francouer should block a prospect like Myers.”
The actual heart of the matter, which is an error on your part. I’ve offered no such thought, just mentioned that RF isn’t the highest value position for an athletic talent like Wil and that we have other positions that might need a replacement, CF being a possibility as ‘Zo Cain has had leg injuries three of four years and ZIPS wOBA has Dyson at a below .300 for this year, in the poor to awful range (maybe Dyce didn’t get the memo?). Moose has hammy problems and Cheslor Cuthbert is still a few years away. Gordon has a history of injuries and isn’t doing all that well this year.
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month agoReally? He’s “too close” to the players?
“Director of Player Personnel Development” and “Assistant General Manager” left him without the requisite experience to properly evaluate the value of major league talent?
It’s easy to lob criticism about the shortcomings of the way he’s doing his job — how about real reasons?
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoGeorge S. seems to be fixated on Frenchy’s numbers, especially the past ones. In all of the discussion above, one fact about Frenchy hasn’t been discussed and that is the veteran clubhouse leadership he brings to a young team. I’m sure Lee can confirm that Frenchy was one of the leaders in keeping the Royals from getting to down during “the streak”, and as such has a value beyond what he does on the field. Players like Frenchy and Chen bring things to a young team that may be not measurable in terms of wins/loses or batting average but never the less are important to the future success of the team. In addition George, no one has said that Frenchy is blocking Myers (including DM). When Myers hasn’t played a day at AAA level, what makes you so sure he is ready for the majors?
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoCF is clearly an open spot right now. The way the Royals have used Dyson in the past (sitting on the bench as a situational runner rather than playing regularly in AAA) indicates that they don’t view him as long-term solution. Even if Cain stays healthy (a big “if”), he’s unproven at ML level. If Myers can play there, that’s terrific.
3B, not so obvious.
What Gordon has to do with this conversation, who knows?
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month ago” The way the Royals have used Dyson in the past (sitting on the bench as a situational runner rather than playing regularly in AAA) indicates that they don’t view him as long-term solution.”
The Royals have specifically sent Dyson down to play regularly in CF, rather than be a permanent PR..
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoKC Guy, you’re trying hard to pick a fight. You’re putting words in my mouth (or my comments :)). He came from the scouting side and that’s his strength. I’m not criticizing him. In my view, as a scout, he fell in love with a player like Frenchy and over-valued him. I like GMDM — I’m not sure why you think I don’t. Everyone has strengths and weakenesses. His strengths are the right ones for Kansas City. (But probably not the Yankees.) He’s made some mistakes, as we all do, and I’m going to hope he learned from them.
Now, go argue with someone else.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoCareer stats are a very important tool, however they are just a tool. They don’t play the game, people do. Career stats are an average. Take the highs and lows and average together. The managers and coaches job is to know all the external things that affect those averages. Then use the players that maximize the highs. Such things are, oponents catcher has sore arm so his times to second are up, A batter does far better against left or right hand pitcher. Your third baseman has a sore hammie. Some guys hit better in clutch situations. A lot of time we do not have this inside information while the game is going on. Thanks to Lee we do get this info after the fact.
Some times the manager goes against conventional wisdom and it works. He is brilliant. Some times it doesn’t and he is a goat. Sometimes you just have to roll the dice.
If stats where the final answer wwe could just let the computers determine the outcome and save a lot of money at the K.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoIn 2011, he was on the ML roster for 60 games and had 48 at-bats. He did not play at all in 32 games. He was sent down from time to time in big part because his spot was needed for other reasons and the Royals could not afford the luxury of carrying him for such a limited purpose.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoI’m talking about Dyson for those of you not having a “debate” with KC Guy.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoLarry, it is rolling the dice. But if you could, you would bet on “7.” And not on “2” or “12.” That would give you the best chance of winning. L/R splits are a long-accepted statistical tool that is available to everyone (with a computer).
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“What Gordon has to do with this conversation, who knows?”
He’s an OF who isn’t hitting very well now and had DL level injuries in two of the previous four seasons. In reference to Frenchy, Alex also made major changes in swing and approach for last season and, like Frenchy, turned in a career year.
“they don’t view him as long-term solution”
Biggest problem for Dyson was he tried to pull the ball in the air and he couldn’t play that. Royals have been attempting to get him to scrunch down with a small strike zone, take walks, and slap the ball on the ground to the left and run like hell. This time Dyson is listening. Whether it will stick or whether opposing pitchers will “book” him and make adjustments is still open. But of Myers has the speed to play an average and the arm to play an above average RF, Royals won’t have to guess where to put him, rather can let circumstances tell them where and when he is needed.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoStatistically, Alex Gordon is the best player on the team, yet JimF wants to dog him, yet he continually supports dogs like Yuni and Francouer. He’s a troll, no other reason.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoJim F.: I guess I will respectfully disagree with you about Gordon. If he’s injured, well sure. But otherwise I don’t see LF as an option for Myers. And, as you say, it would not be taking full advantage of Myers’s abilities to put him in LF.
We have a different view on Frenchy. But I think Yost’s and DM’s opinions are closer to yours than mine, so absent an injury I’m not very confident that performance alone will open a spot for Myers in RF in the near future. If Myers has to go in RF, I would love to see Frenchy go on a tear and have enough perceived value for someone to take on his contract prior to the trade deadline. Unfortunately, I think I’m dreaming on that.
I agree with you on Dyson. At 27 (28 in August), he still has a lot to figure out and time is not on his side. The Royals don’t have much choice right now but to try to make the best of it with him. If Myers’s bat is ready and he can play an average CF, it will be easy to find him a home.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoJim F., being as positive as you usually are about the players, what’s troubling you about Gordon? I haven’t gotten to see any of his PAs recently. I know he’s only drawn one walk in the last six games, which is unusual for him. Are you seeing something? I’m not debating, just concerned you’ve seen something that would indicate it’s something other than a bad week.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month agoNothing on Gordon. Just pointing out to George, an old friend from another site, that Frenchy isn’t the only current weak spot on the team nor is he the only one who has started slow after a career year. Frenchy is an obsession with some folks.
Specifically on Alex, I think he, like Frenchy, is probably pressing to justify the new contract. I think he’ll be fine and put up another very solid year. He worked hard on some specific stuff over the winter which I think will make him a strong player for the length of his contract. If Hoz, Frenchy, and Alex get hot this is going to be a scary team.
“But otherwise I don’t see LF as an option for Myers.”
Nor do I, as a prediction. What I do see is Myers on a fast track to any of several possible positions, which I’ve noted and suggested the reasons for those positions being available. Gordon’s history is that he has been hurt in half of his seasons and his style of play makes another injury possible. Frenchy’s history is underachievement. Dyson’s history is inability to hit major league pitching, Cain’s is of injury. I have also suggested that Myers may be able to play a position of higher value than RF and I think the organization is interested exploring their options, CF and 3rd base being two.
Really, too many bodies for positions will take some getting used to:)
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoIt’s a good problem to have. :) But not so much so on the starting pitching side. I’ve been an Astros season ticket holder for a number of years and was a big fan of Paulino’s stuff. I loved to go when he was pitching — truly electric stuff. The problem was he always seemed to find a way to give up a slug of runs. I hope that has changed.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoJim W you have been very prolific today. Good information. Yes use stats to improve your roll of the dice, but you still have to roll them.
You mentioned the Astro’s, are you long distance poster?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoGeorge: If the only stat you care about is OBP then it’s pretty clear that the next time you run a major league team, you shouldn’t sign Jeff Francoeur.
Fortunately for Jeff, the Royals care about other player attributes as well as OBP.
Ben Reid
1 year, 1 month agoWell, I guess it’s a good thing that Frenchy’s only bad stat is his OBP, huh? He’s got a great wOBA, wRC+, and a well above average ISO, doesn’t he?
Oh, wait. No.