Games: Texas Rangers, May 14: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Texas Rangers

May14

How aggressive base running won the game

The Royals have taken a lot of criticism for their aggressive base running. Monday night, aggressive base running won a ball game.

The Royals adopted the current approach on the base paths because they felt their former approach — going station to station — was killing them. They felt a timid approach was costing them runs. They didn’t think they had enough power to make standing around waiting for home runs a viable game plan. They felt that aggressive base running would buy them more fastballs for the hitter at the plate, cause the pitcher to be up in the zone when he rushed his delivery, force the infield to reposition themselves in ways advantageous to the offense and create errors when fielders felt like they had to hurry their throws.

Monday’s game demonstrated why the Royals adopted this approach. They won 3-1, and two of the runs came directly from aggression on the base paths.

In the 5th inning, down 1-0 with two outs, Jeff Francoeur on third base and Chris Getz on first, Getz stole second base. The Royals are not basing their base-stealing decisions on history or run expectancy matrixes; they’re basing them on math. Getz can steal second base if the pitcher takes longer than 1.3 seconds to deliver the ball home. Rangers pitcher Scott Feldman took 1.6 seconds on the pitch while Getz was committing thievery. Mathematically, Getz should’ve been safe easily — and he was. Tying and winning run in scoring position, Alcides Escobar hit a single, both runs scored and the Royals went out in front to stay.

The other piece of daring base running was Jeff Francoeur going first to third in the 7th inning. Mike Moustakas had singled to center field and Francoeur never hesitated. He hit second and kept on going. I’m guessing he made the decision because the ball wasn’t hit that sharply (which means it takes longer to reach the fielder) and Craig Gentry is right-handed. Gentry was moving away from third and was going to have to make a pivot to throw the ball — that meant no momentum on the throw. Francoeur made it easily and scored on a double play ball hit by Brayan Pena.

Doug Sisson is in charge of the base running. Doug was brought in specifically to make this change in philosophy. We have talked about the philosophy and the philosophy’s critics. Doug — and the Royals — are convinced aggresive base running will play off in the long run and suggested the people who hate the approach are in for a frustrating season.

“We’re not changing — it’s who we are,” he said.

Game notes

Top of the 1st: Jarrod Dyson steals second and slides in head first. Elvis Andrus applies the tag on Dyson’s left elbow and Dyson comes off the bag. No way to tell from TV, but it’s an old infielder’s trick to apply a tag — with a little push — and as Frank White used to say, “Help the runner get where he’s going.” The umpire either doesn’t see it or buy it and Dyson’s called safe.

Later in the same inning, Dyson’s on third with Billy Butler at the plate and one down. This is where teams often use the “contact play.” The runner heads for home on contact and hopes the ball isn’t hit back at the pitcher. Unfortunately, the ball is hit back at the pitcher and Dyson’s caught halfway between home and third.

If the contact play was on, Dyson did not make a base running mistake, but Billy Butler probably did. The trapped runner is supposed to stay in a rundown until the batter has time to get to second base. If that happens, at least the team has a runner in scoring position with two down. Steve Physioc and Rex Hudler said first base coach Doug Sisson was waving Billy on, but he shut it down at first base.

Bottom of the 2nd: Jeff Francoeur is thrown out trying to steal second (if you hate this approach, here’s your chance to criticize) and Rex Hudler describes it as a hit and run (Brayan Pena swung and missed). After the game, Ned Yost described it as a steal and said Frenchy got caught when pitcher Scott Feldman guessed right and dropped his delivery time from 1.5 or 1.6 to 1.3. I went back and watched Francoeur during the play and he never looked in, which indicates a straight steal. Runners look in to home plate during hit and runs to locate the ball.

Bottom of the 3rd: Alex Gordon does a great job of “rounding” the ball (taking a route that allows the fielder to approach the ball headed in the direction of his intended throw) and holds Josh Hamilton to a single. (It probably would’ve been a single anyway, but it’s nice to appreciate a job well done.)

Bottom of the 4th: Bruce Chen runs a “cutter” in on right-handers. A cutter is a fastball held off-center which gives the ball lateral movement. Chen’s cutter keeps boring in on a right-hander which forces them to get the bat head out early. That makes Chen’s off-speed stuff better.

But what happens when the cutter does not get far enough in? Nelson Cruz hits it out of the park — and by the way — MLB.com consistently misidentifies Chen’s cutter as a slider.

Top of the 5th: Two down, Jeff Francoeur on second base, Chris Getz at the plate. Getz hits a grounder to Adrian Beltre. The ball spins Beltre around, he gets nonchalant with the throw and makes an error. This goes back to a former point made here on the site: practicing correctly and doing everything the same way every time is important. Beltre tried to make a throw without much stride — an unusual throw — and cost his team two runs.

After Alcides Escobar drove in Francoeur and Getz, announcers Steve Physioc and Rex Hudler suggested it might be a good time for Esky to steal second. Two outs, Jarrod Dyson was at the plate and the thinking went this way: if Escobar gets thrown out, Dyson leads off the 6th inning. But by my stopwatch, left-handed reliever, Robbie Ross, was too quick to home plate.

Once again, the Royals aren’t stealing bases based on past history or what is considered “usual.” When the math says they can steal — and it makes sense to do so — they steal. When the math says they can’t make it, they don’t.

Bottom of the 7th: Two down, one on, Elvis Andrus at the plate. Andrus hits a slow roller to Mike Moustakas, Moose charges, fields the ball and throws it away. The ball sails to the infield side of first base, pulling Eric Hosmer into the runner. If you’ve seen our video on fielding slow rollers, you know that throw tends to sail to the arm side of the infielder because the fingers are not on top of the ball. So Mike needed to miss to the outfield side of first base, which would’ve given Hosmer some room to work.

Top of the 8th: Hosmer hits his third hard shot of the game, all of them at someone.

Bottom of the 8th: Yost uses Jose Mijares to get one batter, Josh Hamilton. We’ve seen managers try to use one pitcher to slide by one bad match-up because they liked the match-ups in front or behind the bad one. We’ve also seen those managers get burned by those decisions.

Robin Ventura tried it on Sunday: he let left-handed Matt Thornton face right-handed pinch hitter Johnny Giavotella because he wanted Thornton to face the left-handed Dyson and Gordon sandwiched around Gio. The decision cost the White Sox the lead and possibly the game. Fans can never know exactly who is available in the pen on a given day or all the factors that go into selecting a match-up, but Sunday and Monday, Ned used lefties to get one out — which kinda seems like the point of having them.

Once Mijares got the left-handed Hamilton, Yost was free to bring in Aaron Crow. The Rangers weren’t going to pinch hit for Beltre or Nelson Cruz, so Ned could be assured of the match-ups he wanted.

Top of the 9th: Jeff Francoeur hits a fly ball to right that doesn’t carry. None of the fly balls to right or right center seem to find the jet stream that often sends balls over the fence in Arlington. I don’t know enough about the park to say for certain, but maybe it has to do with temperature.

Bottom of the 9th: Jonathan Broxton on to close. The Rangers are at the bottom of the order and I expect to see Ron Washington send pinch hitters to the plate. But he lets catcher Yorvit Torrealba hit for himself to lead off the inning. Washington, who’s managed a few more games than I have, is saving his other catcher, Mike Napoli.

Why?

Napoli is the Rangers best chance for a home run and it appears Washington doesn’t want to waste it when the Royals have a two-run lead. (Those insurance runs are a big deal.) So Washington seems to be waiting to get a base runner before sending Napoli to the plate.

Torrealba strikes out, pinch hitter Mitch Moreland grounds out to Hosmer and pinch hitter David Murphy comes to the plate. I don’t like to second-guess people who have more experience and information than I do — it’s a great way to say something dumb — but Murphy seems to get an awful lot of the same pitches (four-seam fastballs) in the same location (low and away). Murphy whacks the fourth one into left field.

Now Napoli comes to the plate — and strikes out looking to end the game.

Couple of things

Everyone seems to agree that the Royals have terrific, young position players. Without any doubt — at least in my opinion — the Royals are much better defensively. Now the bullpen is coming in for its share of praise. So the one area in which the Royals are falling short — and a lot of teams have the same problem — is the starting pitching. I guess you can still say Dayton Moore doesn’t know what he’s doing, but, to me, it seems like the team is headed in the right direction.

And it looks like it was a very good decision to pull Danny Duffy early on Sunday. Danny was insisting he could pitch through it and Ned pulled the plug.

Comments

Joel Kallem
1 year ago

Lee, speaking of DM, isn’t it time to give him some credit after the beating he has taken on this site by some. The Royals have 8 players on the DL by mid-May, yet they are still playing exciting, competitive baseball with the exception of that one stretch where everything seemed to be “snake-bit”. Having Broxton when Soria went down was an example of where he has built depth into this team. The fact that we haven’t had to make a “panic-driven” trade just to get by in this situation shows what he has been doing. Starting pitching is lagging behind the other phases, but that is often the case. Look at what is happening to the Phillies this year, and they were thought to have a “great” rotation. The fact that we have so many arms in the pipeline, even if they are a year or two away, is a good sign of what is to come if we are patient.
Donald Wilson
1 year ago

Lee, I’m thinking like you are on pitching to Murphy in the last inning. Broxton was 0 and 2 on him and I was screaming at the TV for him to throw something low and bounce it up there. Maybe he was trying to do so but it didn’t look like it. The pitch was definately too good for a 0 and 2 count. Like you said - too many of the same pitches in the same area.
Jeff Frost
1 year ago

Joe- AMEN!!! I agree! DM has brought this organization out of the ashes! We are not to the promise land yet, but it is coming soon! With all the players injured, on the DL, fighting through slumps, etc… and to be only six under and four behind, AND playing good ball, minus the 0-12 slump, we can do it and DM is why we are where we are! GREAT POINT!!

In regards to being aggressive- that is SO key! Play like McRae, Brett, Wilson and the teams of the late 70s, early 80s did. (All they did was make the playoffs 7 times in 10 years. NO POWER, SOME speed- everybody thinks that Amos Otis, McRae, Brett, Patek were all fast. NO- they were all aggressive! I love that Sisson is brought in to teach us to be aggressive! That is what Steve Boros did for the teams of the 70s and it carried over into the 80s. Frenchy has brought that same attitude and it has carried over to the rest of the team, much like Mac did in the 70s! GO ROYALS! Again, in 1984 we won the division. On July 16 we were 42-52! KEEP THE FAITH!
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Dayton Moore once told me you could fire any GM if you only look at his mistakes. Projecting the future is an inexact science and lots of decisions don’t work out.

So if you want to be negative, you’ll find plenty of reasons that Moore should be fired.

If you want to be positive there’s also reason for that. Spending has increased under Moore and I’m assuming a hot GM prospect does not come to KC without some assurances on the financial side.

Positions that had gone unfilled before Moore’s arrival—the Royals thinking they could skate by—began to be filled after he got here.

The Royals increased what they were willing to spend in the draft and the minor league pipeline began to fill with quality players. That was recognized by outside observers and the Royals were said to have the best minor-league talent in the game. Those players won in the minors and are now arriving here in KC.

The pitching has lagged behind the position players, but the team seems better in many other areas. That doesn’t mean this will be a winning team or a playoff team, but it does seem like things are headed in the right direction after so many years of limping along.

I know a lot of people disagree and that’s their right, but I’m encouraged.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Donald: When they were pitching to Murphy and hitting that outside corner, I thought they should do what you suggested—throw something off-speed to the same spot—or come inside hard.

The reason I don’t want to condemn that pitch-calling too strongly is I know decisions are being made based on information I don’t have.

Brayan may have been looking at Murphy’s feet and realized he was set up and waiting for them to come inside. And there may have been a reason not to throw off-speed—although they did it to Napoli.

Thinking along with the pitcher and catcher makes the game more exciting. We just need to accept that we don’t know everything they do—but it doesn’t mean we can’t ask questions.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

One more point I should’ve made when writing my original post:

The Royals are thinking about the stolen base differently than many fans. Like I said, they don’t care about what’s happened in the past, they just want to know if it makes sense tonight.

So if they’re being so logical and only running when the math tells them to, why did so many runners get thrown out at the beginning of the season?

Doug Sisson said too many guys were pressing and playing “beat the clock.” They might need a 1.4 delivery time to steal and would take off even if the guy was a 1.2, thinking, “Maybe the throw will be off line.”

When they saw too much of that, the Royals stepped in and cleaned it up—reemphasizing why and when they’d run. Since then, they’ve been better.

BTW: We all should appreciate how willing the Royals have been to explain this stuff. It gives us some insight—agree or disagree—into why the team does what it does.

Unfortunately, I’ve got to be on the field every day at about 2:30 to hear that insight. That’s when people are around and have time to talk.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Lee -

In the first month of the season, the Royals were 14/22 in stolen base attempts (63%). In the last two weeks, the Royals are 8/13 in stolen base attempts (61%). They’re attempting just as many steals as at the beginning of the season, and they’re getting thrown out just as often. They lead the league in caught stealing.

I know that this is a forum for people who “want to be positive” as you say above, but I think that needs to be grounded in the facts.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

I’ve been complaining about it all season, so I want to make sure I give credit today to Ned for using Mijares exactly as he should be used.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I think that needs to be grounded in the facts.”

Lee gave the facts from last night. The “last two weeks” might be a bit arbitrary. Don’t remember when Doug Sisson made the adjustments.

As for “positive”, I prefer “realistic”. With the current power outage of the team and facing good teams and occasional very good pitchers, adjustments have to be made. Sometimes the other team makes a counter-adjustment at the right time and also, of your 13 attempt sample, two of the outs were on clearly blown calls by the umps, Q and Dyce as I recall. Competent umpires turn the two week sample into 79%. Last night’s aggressiveness by Getz and Francoeur turned into two runs, the margin of victory against the greatest team in the history of whatever. That’s a fact.
Jason Everett
1 year ago

One thing to remember, that we’ve discussed here before, is that you really can’t give more than 100%. That is, when you try to do more than what you’ve practiced doing, you can often create issues / mistakes.

Trying to beat a pitcher going to the plate in say 1.2 seconds when you can only beat a 1.4 and “hoping” for an offline throw is a good example of that.

Otherwise, everything about last night looked great! I would say there were some interesting calls on the strike zone, but I think that went both ways for both teams.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jim F -

When the Royals stole 10 bases in a row safely (or something like that), you were pointing to that as evidence of Sisson’s changes. That would put the change somewhere around April 20.

I chose to look at months exactly because it’s arbitrary (an arbitrary convention that everyone agrees on). There’s no danger that I’m cherry-picking hot or cold streaks out of the data to make a point.

In both April and May, we lead the league in caught stealing.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“That would put the change somewhere around April 20.”

Then that would be the inflection point, which statistically is orders of magnitude more important than turning the page on my SI calendar.

We’ll never agree on this, but I appreciate your effort and good manners.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

I said last week that the playing field here isn’t level. The Royals failures get examined for context that could show that the decision to try was still correct. The Royals successes are taken at face value.

I see know how that’s part of wanting to be positive. That’s not really the approach for me. I want to understand why we’re still losing, 13 years into Glass’s ownership and 6 years into Moore’s GMship.

Doing stuff like assuming the umpires made mistakes in Royals getting caught stealing but not in our successful attempts (especially when Lee highlighted just such an instance in the game notes above) will make you feel better about this team, but it’s a false feeling. It frustrates me.

I like the game notes, and I’m going to keep stopping by, but I think I’ll post quite a bit less often going forward. I hope to see you all at a Plaza Parade in the near future. We just disagree on the path that’s likely to take us there.
Brian Grant
1 year ago

So aggressive base running finally won a game instead of costing us one. Aggressive base running is what….1-8? 1-9? Nice that it finally got a win though!

(I’m being a little bit flippant. I completely agree with the Royals decision to be an aggressive base running team. Even though it’s been a rough start, i think by the end of the year, the base running strategy will be a net-positive.)
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I want to understand why we’re still losing, 13 years into Glass’s ownership and 6 years into Moore’s GMship.”

Because David Glass was a career employee and ownership has a steep learning curve, and the organization Dayton Moore took over had less assets than an expansion team and had to be built from the ground up both on the player side and the management end, small things like getting cell phones for scouts.

The team that Tampa Bay’s latest GM took over was more productive the previous year than the Royals were last year, having a resident ace and a couple of high production position players. Under the constraints of a small market, development through the draft was Moore’s only realistic option for long-term, Atlanta-style success and that is what he has been doing. He hasn’t been perfect at it, but I think is getting better.

I’ve disagreed with some of GMDM’s moves; Guillen, Meche, and Yuni the top three, but have been impressed with his willingness to roll the dice on cheap, desperate players like Chen, Melky, and Frenchy, and think he is handling contract extensions well. I also think that his not trading for Pineda and Jair were brilliant moves, as was not giving a pitcher with degenerative discs a $15 mil contract.

“We just disagree on the path that’s likely to take us there.”

And what would be the fun of agreement? I learn more from disagreements, what little familiarity I have with sabre coming from visits to boards where my opinions were rather forcefully derided. Some of my friends from some of those boards drop by here to visit me to this day, sometimes six or eight at a time:)
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

I do also want to thank everyone for the generally respectful tone. I should have noted that above.

Also, I’ll be rooting hard for Vin Mazzaro tonight. He didn’t get a fair shake last year, and I admire how he’s persevered. I hope he is able to stick as our 5th starter.

Lee -

If you see Dayton and you have a chance to ask him a question, I’d really like to better understand what they’re doing with Wil Myers. He was a catcher until last year. Then they moved him to the outfield. Now they’re starting him at 3B and talking about trying him at 1B in an attempt to find at-bats for him at the MLB level. Unless defense is really easy for him, this seems stupid.

If Myers bat is ready, as Moore says, and Myers is good in RF, call him up in RF and trade away Francouer (some people questioned the Francouer contract in the offseason because they don’t like Francouer but far more questioned why we gave a 2-year contract to a RF when our best prospect was less than two years away and played RF) or make Francouer the utility player. Why pile the challenges on the young guy who’s also facing a transition to the majors? It just seems like setting Myers up to fail because we made a poor signing in the offseason and blocked him.
MattandJulie Herbster
1 year ago

Two questions:

1)Could you comment on Greg Holland’s habit of falling off the mound towards first base while he is delivering the pitch? I don’t recall seeing a pitcher do this before. It doesn’t seem to affect his stuff, but it sure looks weird. 2)I live in NC and I’m taking my son to NY next week to see the Royals play the Yankees. Any ideas regarding how we can greet the players before or after the game and maybe snag an autograph or two?
MattandJulie Herbster
1 year ago

BTW, I’m referring to meeting the Royal’s players. I could care less about getting autographs from the Yankees!
Clark Hart
1 year ago

Brendan, Regarding Myers, they were discussing this on the radio yesterday. The feeling seems to be that Myers is a good athlete, and they would just like to see how comfortable he is at different positions. It appears the thinking might be that if there is an injury on the major league club, if Myers has three or four positions he is adequate at, they could bring him and his bat up to help. BTW, if his hitting forces their hand and the Royals call Myers up, I bet they don’t let Frenchy’s presence stand in the way. This could be another one of those great problems to have; players that win the position instead of awarding spots by default.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Couple things and then on to other work: I can’t remember exactly when—if you care enough you can probably go back through the game notes and find it—but I asked Sisson about the base stealing and he told me they had a meeting with the “burners” to go over what they wanted them to do and when they wanted them to do it.

At the point Sisson and I talked they were something like 9 of their last 10. To see if they’ve really cleaned up their act I’d compare the numbers before the talk and after the talk, if I knew precisely when the talk took place.

And as Jim points out, a couple of bad calls in a small sample size can skew the results.

I think the Royals believe the base-running decisions—when to go—have been better and over the long haul, that will show. And, as always, the alternative is playing station-to-station baseball, never advancing unless the runner is absolutely sure to be safe.

If they’d used that approach last night, they would’ve lost.

Also, there is no requirement that people have to be positive on this site. Just read the comments.

People want me to be mad about the same things they’re mad about and when I’m not, accuse me of covering up for the team.

I’m trying to cover the Royals froma different angle: a former amateur coach and player who tries to pick apart the game and point out small things—both good and bad—that fans might’ve missed.

I’ve said I like the direction this team is headed, but that doesn’t prevent me from pointing out the Mike Moustakas put his throw on the wrong side of first base last night or that Billy butler failed to advance to second when Jarrod Dyson got in a rundown.

I also try to appreciate the good plays, like Alex Gordon taking a good route on a ball.

Paying attention to the small things—both good and bad—and pointing them out on this site happens daily.

So you’ll probably hear positive stuff from me that you won’t hear any place else, but you’ll also hear negative stuff from me that you won’t hear any place else.

It’s OK to disagree, but I think many readers enjoy this site because it has a different point of view and that I’m approaching the game assuming the people who play it know more than me (which they prove every day) not less.

P.S. The last thing I heard about Myers is that they wanted to see him at Triple A first. I’m assuming moving him around is a way to expedite his trip to the majors, not sabotage it.

He’s not the only guy who’s had to change positions to find a path to the big leagues. The more things he can do, the easier it will be for him to get to KC.

And while some fans may want to trade Francoeur to make room for him, the Royals may hold a slightly higher opinion of Jeff.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

What I’m hearing on Wil is that his speed, athleticism, and arm will play in any of the OF spots, handy given ‘Zo Cain’s history of leg injuries.

As for the experiment at 3rd, Cheslor Cuthbert is having some problems with the bat, so 3rd may be an area of need for the future and is a higher value position than corner OF. 1st is a possibility given Hosmer’s difficulties. In general I think they are test-driving Myers in order to find out if he can come up and replace Moose if the hamstring pops or Dyson if he reverts to his old hitting production or Gordon if injured or Frenchy if needed. None of our three OFs have a long history of success and injuries do happen. The more positions Wil Myers can play, the greater his opportunities to come up quickly and stay.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Matt: Lots of pitchers fall off to one side or the other and it usually doesn’t affect their stuff, but it does screw up their fielding.

If he finishes in a bad position a pitcher can’t defend himself from a line drive. It also means bunts to the other side of the mound can be effective.

Most pitchers will live with the drawbacks as long as they’re getting out hitters.

As for autographs: I don’t know if they’d tell you when this takes place at Yankee Stadium (you could call and ask), but the visiting team bus will arrive and the players often sign as they go inside. In Kansas City fans have access to the players as they leave the bus, but I don’t know if they do it differently in New York.

After that, the best time is as they come out for batting practice or right after they finish. In-between the players are on a schedule.

There will be three hitting groups, starters first. When a player finishes his hitting he’s free to leave the field and they’ll often stop and sign at that point.

Have the item you want signed and a pen handy. Players appreciate please and thank you.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

If the Royals are currently using math and lead the league in caught stealing while being middle of the pack in stolen bases…maybe they should lay off the math and try gut feelings instead. :)

Snarkiness aside, I have been wondering about why the Royals feel that it is okay to end the inning with Dyson at the plate? I understand that he is the leadoff man but if they have enough faith that he will get on base then why kill rallies trying to steal a base?
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

This is what frustrates me: “as always, the alternative is playing station-to-station baseball, never advancing unless the runner is absolutely sure to be safe.

If they’d used that approach last night, they would’ve lost.”

Not only do we not know what would have happened without wasting an out on the basepaths in the 2nd inning, but even if you take away the small-ball runs, the score is tied 1-1. To say we would have lost with station-to-station ball (which is not the only alternative — there’s a spectrum of options, not just to extremes) is to assume the conclusion.

I appreciate the insight into what the team is doing, but the discussion here isn’t what I’m wired for.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

A brief note for those who might disparage the Polk system: Master Chen is at 0.8 wins above replacement on fangraphs, 0.88 wins above zero in Grit points.

“if they have enough faith that he will get on base then why kill rallies trying to steal a base?”

Not saying that it is, but it may be a matter of lack of faith in the #2 and #3 hitters to get a run home with two outs.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“They lead the league in caught stealing.

I know that this is a forum for people who “want to be positive” as you say above, but I think that needs to be grounded in the facts.”

It just seems like the facts that we apparently need to be grounded in seem to be blown out of proportion a lot of times. I know that stealing bases is one of the things that, for years, “stats” guys have patently disliked. If a team steals at an acceptable rate, it’s always, “Well, I guess it’s ok for now. As long as they keep it up.” But if they don’t, all of the sudden it’s one of the most horrible things a team can do. Just look at the Royals’ stolen base attempts, though – if they were successful on just 5 more, they’d be at 77% for the season, and everything would look a lot better. Are the extra 5 CS really that important?

The Royals could have scored 5 more runs over the course of this season, and pretty much no one would have noticed. I’m sure the Royals are not happy with their stolen base rate at this point, but how would you propose they change it? Just stop running? Perhaps someone needs to tell them to only steal when they will be safe. A lot of times, the strategies/attempts, when viewed through a strictly stats analysis, seem to become an exercise in risk management, without putting it in much of an individual game context. And, really, just because you might currently be below the acceptable rate of return doesn’t mean you’re using a bad strategy – it could just means you’re not executing it properly.

I think a lot of times looking at generalized stats and overall trends tends to completely wipe out or gloss over what it takes to win day to day. That’s one of the best things about this site – general fans can get a glimpse inside what happens behind the scenes; people without as much baseball experience can get a better appreciation for what actually happens during a game; people who know the game can recognize and discuss the small things and minute details that contributed to the win or loss.

There are also a large number of plays that numbers just don’t capture accurately. Hosmer did the right thing on his first at-bat yesterday by grounding out to the right side to move Dyson to 3rd with 1 out, but all he gets is an 0-1 added to his stats. From his perspective, Dyson might have made the right read on Butler’s high chopper up the middle – he just didn’t have time in that split second to calculate that the pitcher was 6’6” and would be able to jump from the mound to snag it. Dyson then did the right thing by staying in an extended run-down, but Butler made a mistake by failing to go to 2nd – so he gets nothing, since there’s no stat that accurately penalizes him. So, one correct play gets a negative, one player’s heads-up play doesn’t get rewarded, and one player’s mistake doesn’t get penalized in the final stats.

And that was just in the first inning yesterday – there are many plays in every game that either aren’t measured, or aren’t measured accurately, by the numbers. That’s why a lot of people close to the game think the stats can be useful, but that they don’t tell you nearly enough of the story to base all of your strategies off of..
KC Guy
1 year ago

“I understand that he is the leadoff man but if they have enough faith that he will get on base then why kill rallies trying to steal a base?”

Two main reasons: 1) Dyson’s possibly the least likely guy — especially if he hits the ball on the ground like the Royals want him to — to get an extra-base hit to drive the runner in from 1st, so they need a runner on 2nd for him to have a chance to drive him in.

2) Dyson’s the easiest guy on the team to move around the bases, so if he gets on base, the Royals feel they have a higher probability of scoring with Dyson (specifically) alone on 1st with 0 outs, than runners at 1st & 2nd with 2 outs. The first scenario means you can move him around with SBs, situational hitting, or base hits with your best hitters; the second scenario requires a base hit to score anybody.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Well, KC Guy, guess I can go back to watching soap operas:) Very well done, sir.
Aaron Bailey
1 year ago

On Wil Myers, I think everything is being done for next year (in case the Royals hit injury trouble again next year). I doubt we’ll see him this year (unless in September). His strikeouts are too high and the Texas League is a hitters league, so he still needs time in Omaha (and this, in my view, is the biggest success of Dayton Moore: patience in not running up every prospect who had a good week like in the previous decade/administration. And remember how much Moose struggled in the transition to AAA and then again to the majors, even after dominating at the previous stops). Also, (and this is pure speculation) the multi-position abilitiy would make him an attractive trade chip to almost any team rather than having to find a team needing a RF and willing to trade a good pitcher.

Thanks for spending so much time at the park, Lee. Positive, negative, or neutral, I just like the information and it has helped me look for a few new things while watching the game. I won’t spend time with a stopwatch, but Feldman’s delivery in the 2nd when Frenchy was caught definitely looked like more of a slide-step than what I saw in the 1st when Dyson made it (after he left a pitch up that Gordon fouled off). I knew about slide-steps and such before, but didn’t put so much focus into looking for them before, so thanks.
Jay Hall
1 year ago

Jim,

I’m not too worried about Cheslor Cuthbert. It’s well known that the Royals High A affiliate (Wilmington) plays in a strong pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s league, and Wilmington’s home park is especially tough on right handed batters. Add to that the fact that Cheslor is still a teenager and one of the youngest players in the Carolina League and his struggles don’t seem so bad. Think of it as a freshman starting on the high school varsity team. Just the fact that they are there speaks to their talent, even if the production isn’t off the charts.

There’s an article by noted Royal blogger Rany Jazayerli on exactly that point over at Baseball Prospectus.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

For what it’s worth, Wil Myers is also one of the youngest players in the Texas League, which makes his play even more impressive.
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

Yes, KC Guy, very well said!

“Snarkiness aside, I have been wondering about why the Royals feel that it is okay to end the inning with Dyson at the plate? I understand that he is the leadoff man but if they have enough faith that he will get on base then why kill rallies trying to steal a base?”

This, too, is mathematical, although it goes against the sabermetric grain that eschews the stolen base. Dyson is hitting .300, so 7 times out of 10 he will make an out to end the inning. Among Dyson’s 19 hits are only one double and one triple, so the 3 times out of 10 that he does get a hit, almost 90% of the time it will not score the run, so the Royals will still need another 30% (at best) longshot to get the runner home. A stolen base - the team average is slightly higher than 60%, although individuals are higher than that - doubles the chances of scoring (18%) vs. getting 2 two-out hits or a Dyson extra-base hit (less than 9%).
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Agree on Cheslor: Clint Scoles and Greg Schaum of Pine Tar Press have mentioned that he has been making solid contact without much luck and his plate discipline has stayed solid, as well as the glove.

Using Cuthbert may have been a stretch, but he is our highest ceiling 3rd base prospect and still three or four years away, so seeing if Wil Myers can fill that space makes sense to me. Many have Myers targeted as the one to save us from Frenchy, but RF isn’t a high athleticism position, just ahead of LF and 1st, so testing the very athletic Wil Myers in CF and 3rd makes sense for getting value from his tools and, perhaps, accelerating his promotion to KC. I’m actually surprised he hasn’t played a few games at 2nd:)

Good points on Cuthbert. Thanks for the info and link.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

Brendan, thanks for your posts. I stopped reading a few days ago other than scrolling through the comments to read posts from you and one or two others. I came back today and, after reading what Lee had to say about baserunning, immediately lost interest in reading the game notes. Brendan, are you aware of another site that provides objective, thoughtful and mature analyses of the Royals?

Lee, I’m more interested in an objective viewpoint and I’m not getting that here. That’s not all on you — Jim F. is doing you no favors. Best of luck to you.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Jay, good article by Rany. I read some similar stuff when Bubba was drafted, that his relatively advanced age might be a negative.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jim W -

I read a lot of different sites. As far as analysts, I’ve learned the most from Jeff Zimmerman at Royals Review, Kevin Scobee at Kings of Kauffman Clint Scoles at Pine Tar Press. I’d certainly have included Mike Fast at Baseball Prospectus before he got snatched up by the Astros. All of those guys regularly show up at Royals Review, and if there’s only one site I can get to each day, it’s RR. I also like that the best minds in the business stop by as well. If you’ve got a question about the ZIPS projection for one of the players, Dan Szymborski (the creator) is likely to be the one answering it.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

“Dyson’s possibly the least likely guy — especially if he hits the ball on the ground like the Royals want him to — to get an extra-base hit to drive the runner in from 1st, so they need a runner on 2nd for him to have a chance to drive him in.”

He’s also the most likely batter to get on base, thus putting the runner in scoring position. I know that this uses things that have happened in the past and not the foolproof Math but he does lead the team in OBP.

“Dyson’s the easiest guy on the team to move around the bases, so if he gets on base, the Royals feel they have a higher probability of scoring with Dyson (specifically) alone on 1st with 0 outs, than runners at 1st & 2nd with 2 outs. The first scenario means you can move him around with SBs, situational hitting, or base hits with your best hitters; the second scenario requires a base hit to score anybody.”

I’m having a hard time with this. You’re saying that it’s okay to give up on an inning with a runner on first?! Make no mistake stealing with Quintero the other night was flat giving up on the inning. This is okay though because there is the same likelihood to back in that situation to start the next inning as there was to move the runner over this inning? That seems a little foolish. I would like to see the Math though…nope just saw it. “Dyson is hitting .300, so 7 times out of 10 he will make an out to end the inning.”

Hard to take the Math seriously when you completely disregard OBP. I guess you have a point that he doesn’t hit for much power. Being the least likely to make an out is a pretty good thing to have in the situation.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Make no mistake stealing with Quintero the other night was flat giving up on the inning.”

Except for the minor detail that Q was safe on the play. The steal is made based on the assumption that it will be successful, so less a matter of “giving up” than taking a risk to enhance chances.

“you completely disregard OBP”

OBP isn’t disregarded, but even Dyce’s high OBP translates to getting on base a little more than one in three times. Dyson’s low SLG and wOBA suggest that even if he gets on base a runner from 1st doesn’t score and Dyson’s speed will be neutralized with Q one base ahead of him.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“I’m having a hard time with this. You’re saying that it’s okay to give up on an inning with a runner on first?! ”

The idea is that the Royals are more likely to score a run if Dyson is on 1st base with 0 outs, than they are if there is a runner on 1st & 2nd with 2 outs (the numbers bear this out). It’s the outs situation that’s key — less than 2, and the equation changes completely. Quintero’s attempt was questionable, though it sounds like he may have legitimately made it (I didn’t actually see that particular play). Last night, it was Escobar on 1st, who is a good basestealer himself, so it’s not like you’re just giving up on the inning by sending him.

Basically, if you assume Dyson is going to get on base in either example, the inning is set up for scoring a higher percentage of time if he is the first guy on, not the last..
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

“The Royals are not basing their base-stealing decisions on history or run expectancy matrixes; they’re basing them on math”

A run expectancy matrix does use some math right? And the Royals sure as hell used some history in determining that Getz can beat 1.3 seconds right? These are things that we can agree on. Why do you have to make it so difficult?

We all love baseball which is why we are reading this. Little remarks like this don’t do anyone any favors. We all understand that there are reasons that managers make the moves that they do. Any reason for stealing with Quintero or Butler is going to be bad though. This Math nonsense is just stupid. Every run predictor in existence shows the Royals are under performing based on how they’ve hit so far. The aggressive/small ball approach is part of the reason.

No matter how the team wants to justify this approach, they are just too reckless with it and it will eventually start to really hurt this team…assuming that ever get enough starting pitching.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“Brendan, are you aware of another site that provides objective, thoughtful and mature analyses of the Royals?”

If you’re looking for analyses that more closely mirrors the way you currently think, then, yeah, Brendan offers some good suggestions. I wouldn’t exactly call all of them “objective” or often even “mature”, though. There are definitely some pre-conceived notions or biases that color most of the offerings from any site. At the same time, every site offers something of value, but you have to be willing to approach each with both a critical and an open mind to fully appreciate it..
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

Thanks, Brendan.

Brian, good luck with that. :)
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

KC Guy, your name’s not Brendan. You’re getting Jim F. disease. I doubt that you know the way I “think;” please don’t be so presumptious.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Brendan, are you aware of another site that provides objective, thoughtful and mature analyses of the Royals?”

You’ld probably be happiest at Royals Authority, although Martin Manley’s new

http://sportsinreview.com/blog/

is quite solid. Kings of Kaufman has some very good writers and Clint Scoles is a solid authority on all things minor league for the Royals at Pine Tar Press, but isn’t much into fantasy oriented stuff.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

“The idea is that the Royals are more likely to score a run if Dyson is on 1st base with 0 outs, than they are if there is a runner on 1st & 2nd with 2 outs (the numbers bear this out).”

The numbers do bear this out (it’s really close a .05 run difference) according to the latest Run Matrix. But this does not make it a good reason to give away the out. Say Butler singles with 2 outs (after some sort of lineup shakueup), they should just try to steal? Seems pretty asinine doesn’t it?

Anyone advocating this reasoning behind the Quintero steal is essentially saying that anytime that there is a runner on first with 2 outs that the runner should try to steal?!

I now know that the Polk system is somehow brainwashing people. I’m not sure how but I think it’s quickly becoming an emergency.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“please don’t be so presumptious.”

Your thoughts are clear enough. Royals Review would be perfect for you. Tell Scott that I sent you:)
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

Thanks, Jim F. That was helpful. I wasn’t aware of Manley’s site. It looks good.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

If you’re in a room full of radical liberals (or conservatives), a moderate may be made to look like an ultra conservative when he feels forced disagree with the extreme positions he hears. Like I said, don’t be so sure you know my thoughts.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

And Royals Review is not for me, thanks.
KC Guy
1 year ago

There’s also a danger in thinking that you’re the moderate in a room full of radicals. As I said, being critical is fine, as long as it’s done with an open mind. Simply writing off the analysis being done as nonobjectively one-sided is doing a disservice to what is being presented.

Speaking of disservice, I don’t think debating the relative worth of the site is productive at all, so I will try not to say anything more about this particular topic..
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

So why are you doing it?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I wasn’t aware of Manley’s site. It looks good.”

I like Martin’s work, used to be on the Star. When he moved I got an email and bookmarked the new one, then promptly forgot about it. He has some interesting ideas on evaluating performance and I find myself pondering Game Score for pitchers, a good way to keep track of trends rather than averages. Good luck, JW.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“The numbers do bear this out (it’s really close a .05 run difference) according to the latest Run Matrix.“

According to the run expectancy matrix I see quoted most often, it’s:

Runner on 1st, 2 outs: .245 Runner on 2nd, 2 outs: .348 Runners on 1st/2nd, 2 outs: .471 Runner on 1st, 0 outs: .941

That’s quite a bit of difference right there. But we’re not even talking about a normal situation – we’re talking about Dyson either driving in a run/getting on base with 2 outs vs. getting on base with 0 outs (with the 2-3-4 hitters behind him). The Royals obviously would like their chances if Dyson could open an inning on base..

“Say Butler singles with 2 outs (after some sort of lineup shakueup), they should just try to steal? Seems pretty asinine doesn’t it?”

I’m definitely not someone who would ever think there’s a “one size fits all” philosophy to be applied to pretty much any situation in baseball. It’s all entirely context dependent. You have to look at your runner, your batter, who’s on deck, what the game situation is, the pitching match-up(s), etc. Obviously, on Quintero’s steal, they thought they had something, and it didn’t work out. But that’s also not a strategy they are likely to employ very often anyway..
Kurt Vancil
1 year ago

Here is a non-stat, non-mathematical reason that I do not like bunting, intentional walks, and stealing in bad situations because I’d rather have Dyson lead-off the inning anyway:

Expectation of Failure.

I know that the best baseball players ever failed more than they succeeded, but it just seems like a mindset that you don’t trust your players to be able to get two hits in a row or your pitcher to get their best player out. To me its like saying, “well I know I’m going to get out so I mine as well move the runner up”.

Thats just my way of looking at it and I have no statistical measure, no stopwatch and I never played in the Major Leagues.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

I notice that our friend Brendan seems to have converted Bob Dutton, who once more writes an article about a subject discussed here. At least he could give a link:)

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/05/15/3612440/royals-notes-yost-has-no-plans.html
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

For what it is worth, the difference between the Yankees and their leading MLB BsR and the Royals with their near the bottom number is 6.8 runs, about 0.2 runs per game.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

I appreciate Dutton bringing the question to a wider audience, but he is actually understating the extent to which the Royals are hurting themselves.

BsR only measures how well runners do at taking extra bases on a ball put in play by the hitter. It does not capture stolen base attempts. Including those makes the Athletics the league leaders and leaves the Royals in last, 11.8 runs behind the Athletics.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

That gets it up to one-third of a run per game. I think the more harmful numbers to the team are .180, .250, and .250, about what Hoz, Alex, and Frenchy are hitting. I do appreciate your giving us a total, that’s a little more significant a number. You should post that on Dutton’s piece, get a few more eyeballs.

Don’t be a stranger, Brendan. The thing that makes this community fairly unique is the wide range of viewpoints that we get. Thanks.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

One-third of a run on average. No damage tonight. No damage the night before. The point being that in several games it cost a a run or more and possibly a game or two or three.

If you want Brendan to stick around, don’t frustrate him so much. Show him some respect. Just because someone disagrees, don’t immediately throw them in the same camp as Loose Seal and George Smith.

As Brendan and I have both tried to say many times, it’s not black and white. It’s not aggressive baserunning or station-to-station. I like the stolen base when attempted by the right baserunner in the right situation. I have no problem with being aggressive with our quick guys up the middle. To me, over-aggressive (not being aggressive but too aggressive) is making outs when runners are already in scoring position (second to third) and letting poor baserunners be too aggressive (Frenchy). Brendan, what would the numbers look like if Frenchy was restricted to station-to-station and everything else stayed the same? I suspect that would move the numbers significantly.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“The point being that in several games it cost a a run or more and possibly a game or two or three.”

Last night it won the game, a game being worth ten runs or so. Valuation is a problem. Tonight Texas manufactured a run from aggression. Converting attempts to runs to wins is extremely difficult because there is so much variation in situation.

“Just because someone disagrees, don’t immediately throw them in the same camp as Loose Seal and George Smith.”

I think I know Brendan from RR, hard to tell because of screen names, but his style is familiar. If he’s the guy I’m thinking of, we got along well there. He has an open mind and attempts to do original work. I respect that.

“To me, over-aggressive (not being aggressive but too aggressive) is making outs when runners are already in scoring position (second to third) and letting poor baserunners be too aggressive (Frenchy).”

I can agree with that. As I’ve said before, Frenchy seemed to have lost a step last August or so and I remember asking if he was dinged up. Gotta call it a night, thanks for the discussion, JW. I really do enjoy the folks who disagree more than anyone, you guys make me think.
Brian Barnett
1 year ago

“Runner on 1st, 2 outs: .245 Runner on 2nd, 2 outs: .348 Runners on 1st/2nd, 2 outs: .471 Runner on 1st, 0 outs: .941”

You assume that Dyson automatically gets on to start the next inning. As it stands just getting him on base in the current inning doubles the chance to score a run…that’s a good thing.