Games: Chicago White Sox, May 11: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Chicago White Sox

May11

Tip your cap

I once saw a study that said fans tend to give all the credit to their team when it wins — it played better than the other team — and all the blame to their team when it loses — it played worse than the other team. It’s as if the other team was irrelevant to the outcome. So you can decide whether the Royals hitters were bad or White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd was good. But it sounds like a lot of hitters have been bad against Gavin Floyd — at least lately.

The Royals were shut out, had a total of five hits and could get nothing done in the two big scoring opportunities they had. In the 2nd and 8th innings, the Royals had the bases loaded with one out and couldn’t get a run in.

When a hitter comes to the plate in that situation — runner on third less than two outs — check the infield. If the infield is in, the hitter will try to get a pitch up in the zone and drive it to the outfield. The pitcher will often try to tempt the hitter with a pitch that just a bit too high in the zone, hoping for an infield pop-up. If the infield is back, the hitter can score the run by hitting a grounder — unless the double play is in order.

To many ballplayers, the key hitter is the man who comes to the plate with one out: he’s the last guy who has a chance to score a run without a hit. In the 2nd, Alcides Escobar failed to get the ball in the air and tapped it back to the pitcher. In the 7th, Billy Butler also couldn’t produce a fly ball and struck out. So you can blame Royals hitters or credit White Sox pitching.

I’d tip my cap.

Game stuff

Alex Gordon made another diving catch. It’s gotten to the point I’m more surprised when he doesn’t make that play than when he does.
Kelvin Herrera walked the number nine hitter, Eduardo Escobar, and he scored. Walks are bad, walks to guys hitting .133 are worse.
Jarrod Dyson‘s hitting .298. The Royals want him to keep the barrel above the ball until contact and hit line drives or hard grounders. Pitchers don’t fear Dyson taking them out of the park, so they feel free to pitch him up in the zone to see if he’ll hit routine fly balls.
I’ve seen Dyson run some interesting routes to fly balls, but he’s got the speed to make up for most of them.
Alcides Escobar made another fantastic play at short and you can try it at home: run away from your target, jump in the air, turn and see how much you can get on the throw. Eric Hosmer once told me he thought Esky brought it over to first base at about 97 mph — and Hosmer has to scoop some of those.

Other stuff from previous games because this one was kind of boring

Chris Getz said not only is Kauffman Stadium a big park, but without the artificial turf there are fewer doubles, fewer singles shooting through the infield gaps and no turf bounces. He thinks it’s a tough park for big innings.
David Ortiz came to the plate for the first time the other night and tapped the catcher and umpire’s shin guards. I’ve mentioned this before, but that’s the way ballplayers say hello. Watch a player get on base and you’ll often see him get tapped with a glove.
Tim Bogar thinks managing in the American league is mainly about handling the bullpen. There are only one or two moves to make with bench players and no double switches. So using your pen well and getting the match-ups you want is the most important skill.
When the Royals play those shifts against left-handers, the second baseman plays out on the grass. That makes the lip of the infield a factor and, if the grass is wet, that comes into play, too. Watch for ground balls hitting the lip and taking weird hops.
In the Red Sox series, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was at the plate and didn’t get the signs from the third base coach on the first attempt. Jarrod made a rolling motion with a hand — that’s the signal for the coach to go over the signs once again.
A pitcher’s “tells” can set off the stopwatch before his front foot comes up. Watching the front foot is the way I’ve been timing pitchers: the pitcher’s foot comes up and if the ball hits the mitt in 1.4 seconds or more, a base runner on first can probably steal second. But if the pitcher has an early “tell” — a physical key that lets the runner know when the pitcher’s throwing home — that “tell” can start the clock early. A 1.3 can become a 2.0. I can help you with the stopwatch part, but I’m not watching hours of video to spot usable “tells.” That’s Doug Sisson’s job.

The tonight show

There was a lot of discussion after Humberto Quintero attempted a stolen base against the Red Sox — but not nearly as much discussion after I found out why Quintero was running. Daniel Bard had already balked twice in the inning and the Royals were convinced he would not attempt another pickoff. They wanted Humberto to take a huge lead and thought he could steal the base without a throw.

Great idea, bad execution. Quintero did not take a big enough lead and was thrown out.

The reason I bring this up again is because it seems like an important point: plays like this are where the people who understand the game through statistics and the people who play the game often part company. I think it’s safe to say that, statistically, having Humberto Quintero steal is not a great idea. But what’s generally true may not be true in a specific situation.

Baseball teams take the overall numbers into account, but those can be trumped by what’s happening in this specific situation tonight. The Royals felt the specific situation — two balks in an inning — trumped the overall numbers.

Comments

Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month ago

I’m with you Lee. Floyd was terrific tonight while Paulino was just okay. Even with our defense, it wasn’t enough as outstanding pitching kept our hitters quiet. I hope some of our friends noticed we took a shot at a big inning in the second with the bottom of the order - net result no runs.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 1 month ago

One thing I was curious about in this game - in the first inning, Paulino was pitching to Dunn, brought the ball to his glove, got the sign, and then Dunn called for time. During that break, Paulino stayed in his stance ready to deliver the next pitch, but the home plate ump made some pretty emphatic movements instructing Felipe to take the ball out of his glove before delivering the next pitch. What was the rationale for that? Is it a baseball rule I am unaware of that a pitcher cannot stay set during a time out, or was there some other motive behind the ump’s actions? Any light you could shed on the subject would be much appreciated.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month ago

Gavin Floyd was amazing last night but that doesn’t take away from a struggling Eric Hosmer. Hosmer looked overmatched at the plate at times. He needs some of the pressure taken off by dropping in the batting order. Mike Moustakas has hit well enough to warrant a switch in order with those two players. What are your thoughts Lee?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Derek: I was juggling quite a few things last night and missed the moment you’re talking about, but I’m unaware of any rule that says a pitcher couldn’t just stand there in the set position.

Maybe some other reader knows more than I do about that situation..
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Joel: I tend to think when everyone is hitting a pitcher or not hitting a pitcher, it’s the pitcher.

I thought I heard Rex Hudler say that Floyd had an ERA under 2.00 in his last three games. If that’s right, he’s on a roll—and rolled right over the Royals.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Brian: As we’ve been talking about, a lot of people looked bad last night. Previously, Hosmer has been hitting the ball well, but not much is dropping in for him.

So if you tell him he’s fine, don’t change a thing, but then you change something, you send a mixed message.

I don’t know if moving him down would take pressure off or put more on. Hosmer, Seitzer and Yost would be the best judges of that. The good thing is Hosmer is second on the team in RBIs, tied with Gordon. So he’s still found ways to be productive, even while he’s scuffling.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Joel, going for a big inning doesn’t work every time, obviously. If it did, there wouldn’t be much to debate. The point is to give you the best chance to win a game. The outcome in one situation doesn’t prove or disprove anything.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month ago

As fans we’re all in a lot of trouble if Hosmer, Seitzer and Yost aren’t better judges of moving him down in the order versus you or I. My question was directed to you and your opinion. Based on what I’ve read my opinion would be that you don’t see anything wrong with a sub .200 hitter who hasn’t played a full season of major league baseball stay in the 3-hole.

If you knew me you would know I’m about as big a Royals’ fan as you will find east of the Mississippi. I officially have a man-crush on Eric Hosmer and hope he’s still single when my only daughter turns 18 so they can be introduced.

I still think he needs to drop in the order because he’s not handling the pressure right now. It’s too much. He’s second on the team in RBI’s because he bats third or fourth in one of the better lineups in the AL. Kansas City would likely be scoring more runs if Alex Gordon or Mike Moustakas were in that spot. We all know whoever takes it is only keeping it warm for Hosmer but the plain and simple fact is that he’s not ready for such a high profile position.

Call me crazy but it’s sor of like having Luke Hochevar as your staff ace.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Derek, check out Rule 8.01, which requires that before coming to a set position, the pitcher must have one hand on his side. Since a timeout was called, I would guess that Paulino needed to start the entire process over.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Jim: Thanks for supplying that rule—good to know.

Brian: OK, if you want my opinion—whatever that’s worth—as long as Hosmer’s having good plate appearances: swinging at good pitches, taking a good cut, hitting the ball hard, taking his walks—I’d leave him alone.

And your plan to have your daughter marry him is a good one. Eric’s a very bright, well-balanced individual who has handled all this better than I would.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month ago

I hope Hosmer starts hitting soon because when he does I also have a feeling the Royals will start winning more frequently. Thank you as always for entertaining conversation along with a few chuckles. Enjoy your day at the park and let’s hope Luke uses the force and gets KC a win tonight.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

Hosmer’s numbers project him as probably the first player in human history with 25 homers, 80 ribbies, and an average below the Mendoza line.

Much as I respect his future, a trip to Omaha would seem fair if not for his glove, which is worth a base or two per night.
KC Guy
1 year, 1 month ago

It’s weird, when the Royals got into those bases-loaded one-out situations, I checked the run expectancy, and it said we should have had north of 3 runs from those situations, so I went ahead and marked them down. Come to find out, the Royals didn’t score any! It’s almost like swinging away doesn’t always guarantee the big inning the Royals have supposedly been running and small-balling their way out of.

Someone mentioned a few days ago that we should keep track of every time the Royals play small ball, then fail to score a run. Perhaps we should also keep track of when they swing away and still fail. Both are likely to happen a lot..
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

KC, one reason the team tries to play small ball is the frequency this year of the Big Ball guys walking back to the dugout with their bats on their shoulders.

This also suggests a flaw in run expectancy, that it isn’t very useful without being further weighted to the specific pitcher and hitter at the moment. Gavin Floyd was hardly a statistically average pitcher last night, just as an example.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 1 month ago

Jim - thanks for the info, that makes sense. I guess I was assuming that calling time was more like the pause function on the VCR than the stop/play function. Strange that it’s only the pitcher though, because there’s nothing saying the batter can’t stay in his stance if someone else calls time (though none do).
Kurt Vancil
1 year, 1 month ago

Having a runner on third with less than two outs and failing to score that runner is one of the most frustrating situations in baseball. Because it is so frustrating I understand why managers and hitters adjust their at bat in order to score the run. Hit a deep fly for a sacrifice or a grounder to score the run. The idea being to guarantee one run because that is better than no runs.

My question though is why adjust your approach to much. Why not try to drive the ball up the middle like you would if nobody was on? Isn’t that what Sietzer generally wants a player to do? I understand the risk of failing to get a hit and bring the run in but I feel like a lot of positives could also happen if the hitter just tried to drive it up the middle. (Of course that is much easier said than done especially against a pitcher who is dealing).
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

“especially against a pitcher who is dealing).”

That is the joker in the deck. I’m sure Billy, Hoz, Moose, et al were trying to drive the ball and Floyd was just plain nasty last night. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Derek, the rules are to prevent the pitcher from quick pitching — throwing a pitch before the batter is ready. The pitcher controls (within the framework of the rules) the timining of the pitch, not the batter.

KCG, run expectancy did not say how many runs “should” have scored. No statistic says what “should” happen. They attempt to show what is likely to happen on average over a large sample size. If you’re looking at a specific game situation (versus a generic question over the course of a season), do you need to look at the circumstances surrounding the specific game situation as well? Absolutely. In the eighth inning with the bases loaded, one out, down by five runs and Billy Butler at the plate you wouldn’t have him swing away?
Kurt Vancil
1 year, 1 month ago

Hosmer down in the 6 hole tonight. Makes sense with his struggles and the fact we’re facing a lefty.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

“If you’re looking at a specific game situation (versus a generic question over the course of a season), do you need to look at the circumstances surrounding the specific game situation as well? Absolutely.”

Very good, weighting from the often irrelevant large sample average to account for specific players and situations. And even then it’s a crap shoot as batters get a hit three of ten times maybe. The weighting of the situation is where disagreements seem most often to arise the morning after.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Took a short trip out of town today and rushed back in time for a rain delay.

I can see the Royals made several adjustments against Sale: Hosmer down in the lineup, Moose sitting, partially because of his hamstring, and Giavotella instead of Getz.

Watch how Hosmer pitches tonight and see if he’s changed anything in his approach. If not, that’s interesting, too.

Kurt: There are people who say don’t change a thing with a runner on third and less than two outs. I would think it would depend on the hitter’s ability and the specific situation.

If the double play is in order and there’s one down, I can see why you’d want Butler to hit a ball in the air to the outfield—if he’s got that skill.

Knowing what the hitter is trying to do and watching the pitcher try to counteract that is one of the more interesting moments in a ball game.

Judging the Royals