Games: New York Yankees, May 6: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » New York Yankees

May6

No easy answer

Should Luke Hochevar pitch inside more? Is he injured? Is he tipping pitches? Is he falling into predictable patterns? Does his sinker have insufficient movement? Is he failing to take advantage of his height? Should his pitches be on a steeper downhill plane? Does something change when he gets in the stretch? Does he need to do a better job of focusing pitch to pitch? Is he as mentally tough as he should be? Those are the questions I heard asked after Hochevar had another disastrous start on Sunday. Here are the answers:

It’s a theory. Ned and Luke say no. Ned says no. Luke thinks it’s possible. That’s another theory. Make that three theories. Couldn’t hurt. We’re up to four theories. Always a good idea. Who is?

The truth is, there is no easy answer. If there was, they’d fix it. Both Luke and Ned Yost sounded perplexed after the game. Both Luke and Ned Yost said they’d be searching for answers.

You could say get rid of him — and some fans are — but you have to replace him with someone. Mike Montgomery 4.98 ERA in Triple A? Vin Mazzaro 4.37 ERA? Sean O’Sullivan 7.94 ERA? Nate Adcock’s here, so I guess you could make that argument. Luis Mendoza pitched OK in long relief after Luke was pulled. Some people want Aaron Crow in the starting rotation.

None of these look like obvious, easy solutions.

Three starts ago Luke Hochevar went six and a third innings against Cleveland, gave up two earned runs and broke the Royals losing streak. The Royals are trying to find the guy who did that and get him to show up more often.

Game notes

Luke tried to get inside on Derek Jeter on the first pitch of the game. The pitch didn’t get there and Jeter doubled.
I talked to Felipe Paulino and here’s how he was getting Derek Jeter out Saturday night: Jeter has an “inside-out” swing. The means he keeps the bat inside that path of the pitch and then hits the inside half of the ball. That’s why the ball goes to right field and why Jeter can wait so long to decipher what the pitch is. But that swing requires some room. Paulino’s 2-seamer runs into a right-handed batter, but stays flat — no drop. Jeter was trying to hit the inside half, but had to pull his hands in closer to his body as that pitch ran in on him. That meant no extension and no power. It’s what every other pitcher has been trying to do to Jeter. Saturday night, Paulino got it done.
Irving Falu hit a triple in his first major league at-bat. The guy spent a decade or so waiting for the chance to play in the big leagues and I get the impression everyone was thrilled for him. Falu ran through a stopsign from Eddie Rodriguez to get the triple and then failed to cover second base when Humberto Quintero tried to pick a runner off, but none of that is especially surprising. Mike Moustakas told me that when you get to the major leagues, the game comes at you pretty fast. It takes a while for things to slow back down. Apparently, Falu isn’t there yet.
In the third inning Humberto Quintero started to leave the field with two outs. Understandable, the inning had gone forever. Understandable, but not forgivable. As Frank White once said. “There are a lot of opportunities to find out how many outs there are on a major league baseball field.”
It was bad, but Royals pitchers made it worse than it had to be: three walks and a hit batter scored. It’s hard enough to beat the Yankees — don’t help them.

Starting the runner

Yesterday we talked about starting runners and when Ned Yost likes to do it. Thursday night Ned started Alex Gordon with Billy Butler at the plate and it helped win the game: fifth inning, one down, Alex on first and Billy at the plate with a 3-2 count. Ned started Alex. If Billy swings through the pitch, it might be a strike ‘em out, throw ‘em out double play. Billy did not swing through the pitch, but did hit a perfect double play ball to short. Gordon was already arriving at second, so instead of a double play, it was a 6-3. Hosmer then singled, Francoeur walked, Moustakas singled and the Royals had two runs — final score 4-3.

Managers make big decisions that get lots of attention. They also make less obvious decisions that go largely unnoticed. This decision helped win a game.

Frenchy lets it rip

Detroit manager Jim Leyland recently said Jeff Francoeur is one of the best throwing outfielders in baseball because “He trusts his hands.” So Sunday morning, I asked Jeff about that. When baseball players pick up a baseball, they automatically rotate it in their throwing hand in order to throw the ball with four seams. That means the fingers go across the wide part of the horseshoe pattern on the ball. (See photo below.)

That’s what infielders are doing when they delay the throw a moment. Throw a four-seamer and the ball flies straight and true, the four seams hit the atmosphere at regular intervals. Put your fingers on the ball in any other way and the flight becomes less regular. So other outfielders are taking that moment to find the four seams, Frenchy is letting fly with whatever grip he has — that makes him a beat faster.

The fascinating part is Jeff says he can feel when he has two-seams (throwing with the seams and not across them) and adjusts accordingly. If Jeff throws a two-seamer — and his hands are large enough they’re always find some seams — the ball tails to Jeff’s right. That movement actually help Jeff when throwing to third, because the ball moves around the runner.

Sunday was a day off for Frenchy so I asked what was on the agenda: some work with the trainers, relaxing, starting to hit off a tee in the 5th inning, being ready to pinch-hit if needed from the 7th on, but Frenchy thought his most important role was cheerleading. Mitch Maier was getting a start and Jeff planned to be there early to cheer him on. Apparently, on some teams, the veterans who get a day off stay in the clubhouse unless needed. Frenchy said Mitch — and Irving Falu — deserved him being there for support, just like they are when he plays.

baseball grips

Left: the four-seam grip — right: the two-seam grip

Comments

Antonio Cutolo-Ring
1 year ago

I appreciate that Francoeur supports his teammates like that. From what you’ve written for awhile now, it looks like the guys on this team like each other. I imagine that makes playing baseball on this team that much more satisfying.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Checked Brooks Baseball’s strike zone chart and 28 of Luke Hochevar’s 51 pitches were middle of the ‘zone and up, 23 were below the middle line of the ‘zone. In Hochevar’s 93 pitch effort against Cleveland on April 25 it looks like less than 40 middle and up, over 50 down. just a rough count from the charts and I’m sure the Royals have a better count, but my guess is that pitches aren’t being finished and are staying up. That suggests that his ankle is still tender.
Jim Eicher
1 year ago

Where’s the Hochevar of a few years ago that threw a complete game with less than 80 pitches? I love the guy, and realize there are no easy answers, but isn’t it time to do something? If it’s his ankle, have him sit out a start, or send him down for a week or a short DL stint or something. Anything. I can only imagine that his frustration and that of Yost and the coaches is ten times what mine is. We split a four game set with the Yanks, and had a real shot at a 3-1 series win, blah, blah, blah, on and on and on…
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Antonio: Yeah, I do think this team truly likes each other. It’s not necessary to win, but it doesn’t hurt. Being a veteran guy, I think Francoeur’s trying to set an example: this is how you treat your teammates.

One of the reasons Alex Gordon stayed is just that: he likes his teammates.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Jim: Anything’s possible—although Luke says he’s fine. Ned suggested he was inconsistent with his mechanics today, but planned to watch video and see what he and the other coaches could spot.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Jim: Yup, you’re not alone. Everyone can see Luke has the talent. It’s just getting it out on a more consistent basis.

That’s the game plan until they come up with a better alternative.
Gene Winters
1 year ago

I’ll be the bad guy here. I don’t care how they have to do it, but get rid of Hochevar. I can’t believe that given Luke’s spot in the rotation, that Crow or Adcock couldn’t throw up better than a 5.54 ERA. I know that to dump Luke means you admit you blew it, but how many times do we have to trot him out there before we get smart? His clone, Davies got the boot last year. GMDM is a genius with drafting and the farm system but he appears clueless on the major league level. They watch Luke get torched for 4 or 5 games, then he throws a decent game and they tell us Luke has turned the corner. Then he’s lit up for 4 more starts, but then he pitches a good game. A guy who plays well in every 5th or 6th start doesn’t have big shoes to fill. I know I’ll get ripped on here, but I’ll bet all of baseball will begin to take the Kansas City Royals seriously the day we remove Luke Hochevar off our roster.
Gene Winters
1 year ago

I appreciate that you guys see talent in Luke, but come on, he’s no ace. He’s no number two. He’s not even a number three. Maybe a number four on a bad team, a five on a good team. He’s never had a season to write home about. People remember that 80 pitch shutout and wonder when we will see that guy again. Hey, Fred Patek hit three homers in a game once, but nobody was waiting for him to challenge Maris. I think this is the perfect change of scenery deal. Maybe he could have limited sucess someplace else. Send him to St. Louis and maybe Dave Duncan can turn him into a consistant 7 game winner. I see the talent too, but for whatever reason, he just can’t put it all together in a game. But he is certainly dragging this team down, and that’s the last thing they need.
Robert Sailler
1 year ago

I really miss Frank White’s analysis of games. He has the unique perspective of managing a lot of the current players as opposed to all of the other broadcasters. I could be wrong, but I believe there are six or seven announcers associated with Royals broadcasts and all are middle-aged or older white guys. The Royals could do better. Are there no qualified minority broadcasters?
Gene Winters
1 year ago

As far as African Americans go, there’s barely any left playing in the majors, let alone announcing.
KC Guy
1 year ago

Lee,

If you’re able to, a question I had: It looked like Hosmer batted today (Sunday) with a different bat…one that looked a lot like the one that Moustakas has been swinging lately. I thought maybe he had borrowed a bat, maybe to break his bad luck, but then Moustakas came up with a completely different bat than he had been swinging..

Hosmer then came up in the late innings against Soriano with his old bat, so, I’m kind of wodering:

How many guys carry different bats for different pitchers? How often do players switch their bats during games? Did Hosmer try to break his luck with someone else’s bat?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“He’s not even a number three”

He was a high #3 last year per fangraphs with the 2nd best slider in the game.

“maybe Dave Duncan can turn him into a consistant 7 game winner.”

Take him from an 11 game winner last year to a 7 game winner this year in a weaker league? I still think he’s hurting from the liner off the ankle, best explanation for most of his pitches being up. Hochevar, like most pitchers, makes his living low and away, not up and over, and the feet are the foundation.
Steve Yeakel
1 year ago

My opinion (with some therapeutic frustration venting mixed in) - Ned Yost could be a good manager for the Royals if he knew how to use pitchers, but so far he does not. That is what got him fired in Milwaukee, with an otherwise good team in the stretch run (they made the playoffs), and it is now helping to ruin this season for the Royals. If he was pitching wise, he would either demote Hochevar the Horrible to the bullpen (quit babying the head case), or place him on the mentally unable to perform list. It seems that Hochevar lacks character, determination, mental toughness, and focus. And Yost should have brought in Adcock, who has been doing well, and then given him Horrible’s next start, instead of brining in Mendoza, who has been doing as bad this year at Hoch and walked too many yesterday. It is true that our biggest problem is a lack of quality starters. Only Duffy, and perhaps Paulino, look like they can become good ones, with Hochevar a long shot if tough love can cure him. The window for the Process to compete for championships is starting to shrink. As much as I give Dayton great credit for doing a very good job in the Process with position players and defense and bullpen, I also give him great blame for doing a very poor job so far with starting pitching. And, as he accurately said close to the time he first joined us, the most important thing is starting pitching. We need to fervently hope that Monty, Lamb, and Odorizzi earn their way up here this year. That does not look likely. In the meantime, if Yost continues to make these pitching mistakes, Dayton might buy himself some more time by firing him at some point. If I were Ned, I would start managing pitchers like my job depended on it.
Brian Grant
1 year ago

I think the answer is pretty easy: Luke Hochevar is a poor major league pitcher.

He’s been a poor major league pitcher his entire career. He will be a poor major league pitcher the rest of this year. If we bring him back next year, he will continue to be a poor major league pitcher.

George Brett quote: “This organization will no longer accept mediocrity”.

Oh? I guess he’s not technically lying…since Luke Hochevar is well below mediocre.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

KC: Don’t know what was up with the bats, but Moose got a new shipment Sunday, white instead of black. Maybe Hosmer grabbed one to try and change his luck.
Brian Robinson
1 year ago

I am a huge believer in Luke Hochevar. I also believe he was more hurt than he would admit or the medical staff was able to diagnose. In either case the medical staff/management is resposible for not placing him on the 15-day DL. Considering his value as the Royals top pitcher and at this early point in the season I don’t understand why, even as a precautionary measure, he didn’t go on the DL. I’m sure that ankle and area around is swole up. I’m sure that hindered his ability to pitch and repeat his delivery in practice which throws off rhythm and timing. To any athlete rhythm and timing are probably just as essential as strength and conditioning, which likely also got neglected following his injury.

Now Hochevar has the added burden of being shellaced in back to back starts so both his body and psyche are hurting. KC needs to do some damage control now and place Luke on the DL so he rest and regain his form. Hochevar came into this season as confident as I’ve seen and read. His fastball had zip and movement. His slider was crisp and his curve had nice drop. I liked everything about his pitching repertoire.

It was terribly unfortunate that he was hit by the line drive but as pitchers you have to realize that likelihood. It’s even more disappointing that Hoch’s injury was mismanaged.

Lee, I know you will come to the Royals defense and it’s understandable. You can always say hindsight is 20/20. But if you would have asked me the day he was injured I bluntly would have told you that considering the length of the season and the importance of the pitcher involved there would be no hesitation to place him on the DL regardless of his prognosis after being evaluated. The sound of initial impact (even on TV) and how much pain he expressed showed me enough to think it would be dumb to have him even skip one start and expect to be 80%. Hochevar needs to go on the DL now.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Couple things on Luke:

I’ve watched every Hochevar start for the past two-plus years and here’s the problem as I see it: he’s inconsistent—but I mean REALLY inconsistent.

If Luke was mediocre every time out, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. But he’ll come out and have no-hit stuff for four innings and then have nothing-but-hit stuff in the fiftth.

It’s not just scoreless innings that make an impression—nobody’s getting good swings, hitters are off-balance and uncomfortable. You’ll sit there and think, “OK, I think he’s got it” and then, ka-blooey. If Hochevar wasn’t demonstrating great stuff—at times—people would have given up much sooner.

The other problems are practical: not a lot of pitching out there, no minor league starter seems to be ready to help at this level—you don’t want to screw them up by rushing them—and you’ve got limited choices available here. (People weren’t lying when they said starting pitching was going to be a problem.)

Crow’s thrown a total of 13 innings and isn’t ready to start. You could try Adcock and see if he can duplicate what he’s done in Triple A. Mendoza is another option, but hasn’t pitched like he did last September (and remember he was pitching against other September callup at times) and that’s about it.

Most realistic projections put this team at .500 or a little above. They’ll have a hard time reaching that now, not impossible, but they’ve got to play 9 games over .500 starting today to make that happen.

So you’re not exactly screwing up a shot at the playoffs to see if you can figure out the mytery that is Luke Hochevar in time for him to help you when you need it.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Brian: I saw Hochevar walk out of the clubhouse after getting hit by that line drive. He was limping badly and it seemed doubtful that I was looking at a guy who would make his next start.

The Royals trainers went to work and within two days he was walking around like nothing happened. Could’ve been hurting, but it wasn’t showing.

There still could be some effect from taking that shot, no way for me to know, but Luke Hochevar was an inconsistent pitcher long before he took one off the ankle.
Brian Grant
1 year ago

You are spot on about his inconsistency, Lee. And really, that’s what separates good pitchers, from bad pitchers. Every pitcher brought up to the major leagues (for the most part) has good stuff. They have pitches that can get hitters out. But very few of them actually learn how to “pitch”, and can control those pitches well enough to be consistent. To call a pitcher inconsistent in his first or second year in the majors, is to say he needs to learn a few things about pitching to be successful. To say the same about a pitcher in his 5th or 6th year in the league, is to call him a poor pitcher…and that is exactly what Luke Hochevar is.

Hochevar was a poor pitcher before he took a line drive off his ankle. I know he put together a few good starts at the end of last year, but in his entire time as a starter…..the results are pretty clear.

It’s time to chalk him up as another first round bust. I don’t really blame the Royals organization. History is littered with first round pitching busts (one need look no further than “can’t miss” prospect Andrew Miller).

I’m not upset that Hochevar didn’t pan out. What upsets me, is that here we are, 4 or 5 years later (or is it 6? Can’t remember), and we’re STILL letting this mistake cost us wins. That’s unfortunate.
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

Lee, how are pitching prospects separated into starting and relieving roles? It seems that most pitchers when they first come up get their feet wet as relievers, but I’m curious how some get slotted as starters while some remain in the bullpen.

I pose the question because about half of any team’s draft choices - and half the players on a 25-man roster - are pitchers. Starting pitchers are the highest-paid athletes in sports, so it would seem that an organization would strive to develop its own starters. Yet of the Royals’ current crop of talented young players, only one - Danny Duffy (okay, two if you count Luke Hochevar, but he’s been around for a few years, although he’s still fairly young) - is a starting pitcher. We know Aaron Crow was going to get a look as a starter until Joakim Soria went down, but still, it seems like we’re developing fewer starting pitchers than we should.

Any explanation? Or am I missing something?
Mike Six
1 year ago

All of the comments on here that Hochevar’s problems are related to being hit on the ankle are Mind-Boggling to me, do you all not remember opening day and his seven run first inning, that was before he was hit on the ankle. Do you not remember the last 5 plus years when we have been watching the same guy do the same thing, this is not injury related, this is Luke Hochevar, this has been Luke Hochevar for his entire Career, I would wager a guess that in somewhere close to 4 out of 5 career starts for Hoch he has had a big 5-plus run inning, Big-Inning Hochevar is what he is, we all, especially the Royals organization needs to look at Hochevar for what he is a “Horrible pitcher” Hochevar should always be avaluated on a 5 start window, since we know he will have 1 great outing from time to time, but if you will just look at him in 5 start windows, I don’t think there can be any confusion on what he is, what he has always been and what he has the potential to be.
Patrick Redlin
1 year ago

Add another theory (and a lot of pitchers have this problem): switching from the windup to the stretch leads to inconsistent mechanics/release point and pitch location becomes inconsistent. I hear “hochevar is great with no one on, then throws meatballs over the plate when guys get on.” People assume that its mental and he just freaks out and throws it over the plate. I don’t believe that. If he does good with no one on, then he is doing good out of the windup and repeats his mechanics out of the windup well. If he has trouble with runners on and misses location, then he is struggling out of the stretch and doesn’t repeat his mechanics consistently (unless he really is mentally weak).

I think for the next start he needs to pitch only from the stretch. Pitchers are in the stretch around 65 percent of the time anyway. Also, the most important pitches in the game are when? When guys are on base. Pitchers pitch from the stretch when the most important pitches are needed and the best command is needed. Switching from the windup, to the stretch, and throwing in a slide step hear and there: all of those 3 have different leg kicks and can mess with all sorts of timing with the arm action, foot strike, and release point.

If I had the video capabilities I would look frame by frame at his windup and stretch pitches and note the differences and inconsistencies.
Gene Winters
1 year ago

It’s pretty obvious that we need to draft the best college pitcher available. Maybe grab another starter with the second round pick. Maybe Aaron Crow isn’t ready to be put into the rotation. Then again, if he’s able to pich 4 innings, that’s longer then most Hochevar starts. I don’t like using the word inconsistent—it sounds like a good pitcher having an occassional bad day. Luke is opposite. A bad pitcher having an occassional good day.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Maybe Aaron Crow isn’t ready to be put into the rotation.”

True, he’s still having issues with lefties and “too many moving parts”.

“Then again, if he’s able to pich 4 innings, that’s longer then most Hochevar starts.”

Hochevar averaged 6 2/3rds last year, less the year before when hurt. People do forget this isn’t the first time Luke has had injury questions. Like Alex Gordon, hard to perform when injured, then recovering.
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

I have to believe that if Hoch’s problem was something mechanical, like arm slot or tipping pitches or working out of the stretch, it would have been isolated and corrected, even if it meant missing a start with some generic “elbow tenderness” excuse to get him some reps. This is certainly not the Hochevar that finished 6-3 over the last half of 2011, a stretch during which Luke didn’t allow more than three runs in any inning. Nor can it necessarily be tied to Bob McClure’s departure - the improvement was so dramatic and consistent that I imagine Hochevar remembers every detail, and if not, there’s no doubt plenty of video.

If it’s an injury, Hochevar simply needs to stand down. This is a team game, and the team is depending on him to be at his best so he can pitch at his best. If he can’t go, we’ll find someone who can, because that gives the team the best shot to win. In previous seasons maybe winning wasn’t so important (or even worth discussing), but it is now, because this team needs to learn how to play at a consistently high level and, ultimately, to win.

And what about getting a readout on Hochevar as he’s warming up? I mean, it’s pretty obvious from the get-go whether Luke’s got it or not, so why even trot him out there if it’s gonna be one of those nights? Or put him on a short leash so that he can be yanked before the game gets out of hand. Brayan Pena or Humberto Quntaro should be able to tell during pre-game which Luke is in the house, if Dave Eiland can’t see for himself.
Larry Tindle
1 year ago

Not sure what the failure rate for drafted pitchers is but I’m guessing it is quite high. As far as drafting the top college pitcher goes, I think Luke was that item.

I am a very patient man but I feel it’s time to do something different with Luke. I just don’t know what that is. I can give a lot of opinions but this is a money business and Luke is an investment. You have to look hard and long before just giving an investment away, especially one you have to continue to pay if you cut it loose.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

Larry, A suggestion that has been made starting in early ‘11 was that it is possible Hochevar’s future is as a closer, given a habit of being dominant for a few innings, then sometimes wavering. He has the stuff, the question would be whether he could make the adjustment from every fifth day to a day or two out of three for the 9th. Always risks in moving the furniture on a ballplayer, but the closer role would allow him to begin an inning in the wind-up. I still think he’s either hurt or he’s made an adjustment when he was hurt to compensate for the ankle and it’s thrown him off on his plant and finish.
Matthew LaMar
1 year ago

Jim said: ‘True, he’s still having issues with lefties and “too many moving parts”.

That’s an incredibly weak argument when you have Sanchez, Mendoza, and Hochevar in the rotation who are ‘having issues’ with literally everybody (ERAs of 5.24, 5.56, and 9.00, respectively) and when you consider some of the pitchers with ‘moving parts’ like Lincecum and Strasburg are mowing people down regularly.

Maybe I’m just an idiot, but I can’t possibly fathom why Hochevar is still starting or going to start, especially after this debacle. As Lee said, Hochevar is extremely inconsistent. And, in the major leagues, that translates to ‘he’s bad’. An inconsistent pitcher is not one you want to have on your team. As Rustin Dodd posted on Ball Star, Hochevar is now the 6th worst starter by ERA among pitchers with 100+ career starts.

Thankfully, there’s Aaron Crow. Remember, he was selected in the first round by the Royals to be a starter. Can he start? Let’s find out. We know Luke is an ineffective starter. We don’t know if Crow is an effective starter. Can anybody come up with a good, legitimate reason why not to switch their positions?
KC Guy
1 year ago

Lincecum has a uniquely unorthodox pitching motion and has had sustained success with it. Strasburg can throw 100 mph with at least decent secondary pitches. That’s why those pitchers with “moving parts” can stay in the rotation. Crow has been hit or miss out of the bullpen — why would you think that would translate well to a starting spot? Sure, there isn’t a lot to lose by trying him out, but, then again, he could bomb spectacularly and never quite regain his effectiveness in any role.

I don’t think Hochevar has the stuff to be a closer — he doesn’t throw unusually hard, he doesn’t locate well enough, and he doesn’t seem to be particularly effective in pressure situations. To me, he’s either a starter or long reliever..
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Maybe I’m just an idiot, but I can’t possibly fathom why Hochevar is still starting or going to start, especially after this debacle.”

The thing about SPs is a debacle is irrelevant, as are ERAs and K/9s and most peripherals. What matters is that the SP makes a quality start on average about three of five times. Deliver three starts of six innings or more and three runs or less and he’s a bit above average pitcher. Give four of five quality starts and he’s a low #1, high #2 starter. Give four and a half of five and he’s an ace. In the bad starts it makes little difference if he gives up five runs in six innings or six runs in three innings, still unlikely a win will come of it.

“like Lincecum and Strasburg are mowing people down regularly.”

Lincecum has a 5.68 ERA this year and Strasburg has already had his elbow operated on. Crow as a starter would be under the knife by the end of the year. If Crow can clean up his motion and get less moving parts, he’ll end up a starter some day. If not his ceiling will be as a solid closer.
Gene Winters
1 year ago

Good God, the thought of Luke Hochevar as a closer sent cold chills down my spine. But I guess it would be am improvement. He’d blow the game by giving up 2 or 3 runs, rather than 7 or 9 like he is now. For those of you defending him, tell me how much longer we will have to wait for him to be productive. He’s not in a rut. He’s not in a slump. He is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball history. And Ned Yost thinks he’s the ace? LOL! If Yost thinks he can win a divisional title with Luke as his ace, then he needs to pee in a cup.
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

Patrick, not a bad idea, having Hochevar pitch from the stretch. Most relievers already do that, and some starters have reverted to the “no-windup” delivery to simplify mechanics. If there’s any hint that mechanics are involved, the ‘no-windup” might be a way to fix it.
KC Guy
1 year ago

Yost doesn’t think Hochevar’s the ace. He thinks Hochevar has ace potential. Which he mostly does, he just doesn’t use it correctly.

Isn’t Hochevar much worse from the stretch than from the windup? If that’s the case, why would you want him to pitch from the stretch all of the time?
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

Pitching from the stretch would, however, be a major overhaul, one that’s best done during the off-season. Not sure how well that would work mid-year, any more than converting Crow to a starter at this juncture. Like Lee said, no easy answers.
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

KC Guy, the thought was that if Hochevar’s mechanics break down when going from the windup to the stretch, then it would be better for him to nail down the mechanics of the stretch and never go back to the windup. As Patrick points out, pitchers use the stretch about 65% of the time anyway (and Sunday, the Yankees had a runner on 6.3 seconds into the game). If Hoch has trouble shifting from one to the other, he should specialize in the one he’ll use most. Otherwise, he should get the hook as soon as he allows a baserunner.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Short answer to the one quesion I have a shot of getting right: pitcher can be turned into starters or relievers for a whole slew of reasons:

Organizational need, history of ineffectiveness second time through the order, only one or two plus pitches and I’m sure there are quite a few more reasons that don’t come to mind at the moment.

Headed to the stadium to get ready for tonight’s game.
Matthew LaMar
1 year ago

“Lincecum has a 5.68 ERA this year and Strasburg has already had his elbow operated on. Crow as a starter would be under the knife by the end of the year.”

Wow. First of all, you are aware that Lincecum won two Cy Young awards, right? And that his FIP and xFIP are both in the mid 3s? Also, I doubt that you are prescient, and predicting an injury this year is certainly possible but based on nothing. Strasburg is a ticking time bomb and I think he’ll go the Mark Prior route, but for now he’s producing at a level that no other Royal has in the past decade sans Greinke, for better or worse.

Regardless, Hochevar isn’t producing in his current role. He needs a role change or a DFA.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“…only one or two plus pitches…”

Isn’t that the thing with Crow? He obviously has fastball/slider down. I’ve seen a curve and change-up here and there, but really don’t see him throwing those as more than change-of-pace pitches. If there’s a pitcher in the bullpen that has the tools to become an effective starter, it’s Holland. I’m not sure when the last time he started was, but he at least has the potential pitches..
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

There is reason for hope, however. History records the tribulations of a talented pitcher who struggled through his first six big-league seasons (with a first-division team, no less). His record through six years was 36-40, with almost as many walks as strikeouts (twice reaching triple-digits in walks). He had a “breakout year” going 18-13 and leading the league in strikeouts, but still issuing 96 bases on balls. The following season he went 14-7 and led the league in ERA. Some flashes of brilliance, but nobody’s #1 starter. Then over the next four seasons, he went 97-27.

I wouldn’t dare to compare Luke Hochevar with Sandy Koufax, although there are similarities in the early stages of their careers. If the Royals cut or traded Hochevar, however, it would be their luck to have him resurface elsewhere as a top-flight starter. The team has a lot of time and money tied up in Hochevar, and they know he has a live arm. So getting rid of him is something they are going to do only when their are certain that his career in KC cannot be salvaged. They had him on-track for three months last year, so I don’t think they’re ready to give up yet, even if the fans are.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“predicting an injury this year is certainly possible but based on nothing”

The prediction is based on the inverted “W” that both Strasburg and Crow have. Strasburg’s injury was predicted by a few commentators a couple of months before it happened based on his mechanics.

“He needs a role change or a DFA.”

Or he just needs to finish his pitches. Last two games he’s looked like Greg Holland did before his visit to the DL, pitches up and over with a slight drop in velocity. With an injury it happens due to attempts at compensation, without an injury it’s a mechanical problem. Royals have much better film available than I do, so should be easy enough to see. What I’ve seen from the strike zone charts is that he is missing up.

We’ve been hearing that he is Kyle Davies v2.0 for a year or so now, then heard that last year’s second half was an aberration and to expect reversion to the mean, now the meme is DFA a pitcher with a 94mph FB, one of the best sliders in the game, and a nasty sinker. I prefer the idea that he is fixable and expect GMDM to continue to pursue a fix.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“tell me how much longer we will have to wait for him to be productive.”

Until someone better pushes him out. With Mendoza and Adcock as the two closest replacements, then Teaford and the still under performing Montgomery in Omaha, there’s not a lot of pressure for Luke’s spot.

“Good God, the thought of Luke Hochevar as a closer sent cold chills down my spine.”

Likely due to an unfamiliarity with Hochevar’s patterns. He tends to have problems the second or third time through a line-up, usually does quite well the first time. That’s the perfect recipe for a closer.
Devan Shopinski
1 year ago

I have tried to stay positive with Luke over his time here, especially with how he pitched in the second half of last year. I also saw him pitch in person this Spring and he looked good. He just seems to completely lose focus in short order and ends up with a big inning. Three starts this year where he’s gone 5 innings or less? That’s someone taking steps backwards and I’m not buying the bum ankle excuse. If that is the problem, put him on the DL and get him well. If it’s not, I don’t think even Dave Duncan (as a few have suggested) can fix this. Dave’s also retired FYI
Matthew LaMar
1 year ago

“Or he just needs to finish his pitches.”

Well yeah, but he’s show to me that he can’t do that.

I also prefer the idea that he is fixable but, hey, it’s not going to happen. Hochevar looks like he did in 2011, like he did in 2010, like he did in 2010. Any improvement is immediately regressed back to the mean.

I can think of maybe 5 or 6 times the last few years in which there has been chattere that Hochevar has “solved it” or has “turned the corner.” Well, six starts in and Hochevar’s ERA is 9.00. I guess what I’m saying is that I can understand the argument that Crow or Mendoza or Monty isn’t ready or shouldn’t take Hochevar’s place. Ok. But there should be no argument that Luke Hochevar is a bad starting pitcher and will never be a good starting pitcher. 613 innings in; I’d say that he is what he is.
Joel Kallem
1 year ago

“I don’t think Hochevar has the stuff to be a closer — he doesn’t throw unusually hard, he doesn’t locate well enough, and he doesn’t seem to be particularly effective in pressure situations. To me, he’s either a starter or long reliever..”

I agree with KC Guy. I would like to see him switched to long relief for a spell to see if he can find himself. To much potential to completely give up on him, but we need to do something different at this point.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“like he did in 2010”

He was hurt part of ‘10.

“613 innings in; I’d say that he is what he is.”

I’ve heard that about Bruce Chen, Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Chris Getz, and even Alex Gordon. There is no magic number to judge future performance on. Hochevar may well turn out to be a bad starter, wouldn’t be the first time that has happened. He may fix the problem, he may be a future closer. I don’t think I’ld DFA him.

“he doesn’t seem to be particularly effective in pressure situations.”

Closer isn’t a pressure situation, pitcher comes in at the beginning of an inning, throwing from the wind-up against tired guys while he’s fresh. Luke might not make a good fireman, like Greg Holland was last year. That takes a special sort of mindset to handle what is usually the highest pressure pitching in a game.

“he doesn’t throw unusually hard”

A little faster than Jack Soria, as I recall.
Gene Winters
1 year ago

Dave Duncan is taking the year off. I hadn’t heard he had retired. Look at the first innings Luke has had lately. That’s who you want closing games for you? I’ll pass, and in a hurry. He chokes when he gets in tight situations, and if anyone knows about pitching with runners on base, it’s Luke. I am looking down the road because obviously, this team is going nowhere. As long as they keep sending Luke out, it’s a concession that they have conceded. When they get rid of Hochevar, I’ll take them seriously again. Potential is good, but this guy has worn out that label. If Luke wants to stay in the majors, may I suggest he learn how to catch?
KC Guy
1 year ago

“Closer isn’t a pressure situation, pitcher comes in at the beginning of an inning, throwing from the wind-up against tired guys while he’s fresh.”

Closers sometimes put guys on though, and usually are trying to end a close game. Both of which add pressure..

“A little faster than Jack Soria, as I recall.”

Soria also had pinpoint accuracy and a brilliant out pitch when he was on. Hochevar, not so much.
KC Guy
1 year ago

One thing I forgot to comment on in Lee’s original write-up:

“Falu ran through a stopsign from Eddie Rodriguez to get the triple and then failed to cover second base when Humberto Quintero tried to pick a runner off…

Quintero had no business throwing that ball. Jeter was one step away from 2nd, the play was dead, and there was absolutely zero chance to pick a guy off. I appreciate Quintero’s subtle attempts to snag base runners most of the time, but he completely hung Falu out to dry on that one..
Gene Winters
1 year ago

“Hochevar may well turn out to be a bad starter, wouldn’t be the first time that has happened.” Really? You think he MAY turn out to be a bad starter? His lifetime ERA is 5.54. His current ERA is 9.00. He’s not losing games by giving up a run in the 8th. He is getting hammered early and not even giving us a chance to get even. Hochevar is historically bad. You don’t compare him to active players, you compare him to all those who came before. If there were a lousy pitcher Hall of Fame, Luke would be a first ballot inductee.
Gene Winters
1 year ago

Closers can be brought into any situation. Only a bad manager will bring him in to start the 9th exclusively. You will notice a big change in how relievers are used now.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Closers can be brought into any situation. Only a bad manager will bring him in to start the 9th exclusively. You will notice a big change in how relievers are used now.”

They can be brought in, most of the time they start the inning. Firemen can come into any situation, like Greg Holland last year. Two completely different approaches, the firemen gets ready quick, comes in with men on, the closer has a good idea when he’ll be used, does his warmups and trots in to begin the 9th from the windup. As I remember, it was that bad manager Tony LaRussa who began that fad.

“Really? You think he MAY turn out to be a bad starter? His lifetime ERA is 5.54.”

Bruce Chen’s is 4.58, as we keep getting reminded of. Hochevar is yet young, so still has chances.

“He is getting hammered early and not even giving us a chance to get even.”

That is fairly recent, last year he was getting hammered the third time through the order, before he turned it around, which is why it was suggested that closer might be his future. Funny, I had this discussion last year about this time.
zack_delmont
1 year ago

Jim, are you just be disagreeable for disagreeability’s sake? You cannot honestly look at this objectively and maintain the status quo.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

At this point, we just don’t have many options. Luke has value and should be given a shot as a reliever before being DFA. But if we move him now, who should we plug into the rotation?
Devan Shopinski
1 year ago

I mis-spoke. Duncan did not retire, but he is not currently a major league pitching coach while he attends to his wife who is ill.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

You “misremembered.”
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Jim, are you just be disagreeable for disagreeability’s sake?”

Zack, my calling seems to be to stand in front of the herds of lemmings who are following the talking points of several other blogs and probably AM radio. Today’s fad is “DFA Luke Hochevar”. Last year it was all Frenchy and Melky all the time, the year before Bruce Chen. Maybe tomorrow will be “Send Hosmer to Omaha!”

“At this point, we just don’t have many options. Luke has value and should be given a shot as a reliever before being DFA. But if we move him now, who should we plug into the rotation?”

We can trade a couple of middle-relievers for Justin Verlander:) JW, you touch on a central point, that no one is behind Hochevar pushing him out except for Nate Adcock and Luis Mendoza. For all Luke’s current faults, he has produced three good starts out of six and I’m not sure any possible replacement could get us more. If Luke can get back to three good out of five he’ll be a solid #3 like he was last year.