Games: New York Yankees, May 3: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » New York Yankees

May3

How practice wins a game

A while back I wrote a piece about Mike Moustakas and infield coach Eddie Rodriguez. Eddie had Mike out to work on fielding slow groundballs to third. Mike’s approach was to field the ball, straighten up and then make the throw to first. Eddie wanted him to do it right—field the ball and throw from down under before he straightened up. It takes less time and the throwing angle is better. (Check our video section to see Eddie demonstrate the correct approach to the play.)

After numerous repetitions, Mike was soaked with sweat, tired and frustrated. Some of his throws were on target, some weren’t. At one point, after sailing a throw past first base, Mike flipped his glove in the air in disgust. Eddie jumped him for that—throwing your glove is not the right reaction. The right reaction is practicing until you can make the play.

Last night, with two out in the top of the ninth and the tying run on third, Alex Rodriguez hit a slow roller to Mike Moustakas. Mike Moustakas made the play—the right way. The Royals won 4-3. A practice that nobody saw in the middle of the day a couple weeks ago resulted in a win that 19,590 people saw on Thursday night. Just thought you’d like to know.

Game notes

Earlier in the same inning, Chris Getz started a double play with a diving stop. Derek Jeter was on second, Curtis Granderson was on first and Mark Teixeira shot a grounder up the middle. Getz said he knew he had to keep the ball on the infield or Jeter would score. He knocked the ball down, rolled on top of it, somehow got it out and shoveled it to Alcides Escobar. Esky was waiting at second, got the first out, but had the runner on top of him. Alcides bounced the throw, but Eric Hosmer scooped it.
With Jeter on third, Jonathan Broxton was now facing A-Rod for the last out of the game. At one point Humberto Quintero called for a slider and tapped his glove on the ground. This is usually a signal for the pitcher to bounce the pitch. Brayan Pena doesn’t like to do it—he’s afraid the signal will be relayed to the hitter—but Humberto doesn’t seem to mind. However a catcher calls for it, asking the pitcher to bounce a pitch with the tying run on third is a gutsy call.
Jeff Francoeur turned a single into a double in the eighth inning. I asked what he’d seen that made him go for two. Apparently Curtis Granderson was moving to his left — which meant a weak throw.
After Mike Moustakas was unable to move Jeff to third, Francoeur decided to do it on his own. He was thrown out trying to steal and later told me he slipped on the way to third.
Earlier in the day I asked Doug Sisson if the stolen base policy would remain the same: Give the players the relevant information (delivery times and keys) and a green light. Ned Yost thinks the players generally have a better idea of when to go than he would calling the steals from the bench. Doug said the runners had worked on cleaning up some of the problems they had earlier in the season and were nine for their last 10 attempts. Make that nine for their last 11.
A couple times Chris Getz went to the mound to confer with the pitcher and catcher. I asked what that was about and he said he was just confirming the sign sequence they were going to use with a runner on second base. To keep the runner from relaying signs they use a coded sequence. Chris gets the sign and passes it along to Eric Hosmer. Alcides Escobar’s job is to do the same for Mike Moustakas. Infielders want to know whether a pitch is a fastball or off-speed so they know which side the ball is likely to be hit to.
Jason Kendall once told me pitchers who go in for elaborate signs don’t trust their stuff. It can get really complicated. Kendall said he’d tell the pitcher he was pretty sure the hitters didn’t know what was coming. How could they? He didn’t know what was coming.
Francoeur had gotten into some old habits: hacking at inside pitches and rolling over into left-side ground outs. He decided to be more patient last night and—according to my scorebook—saw six pitches in his first at bat, nine in his second, five in his third (a walk) and three when he doubled.

Eddie and the ump

In Wednesday’s game you might’ve seen third base coach Eddie Rodriguez and third base umpire Brian Runge get tangled up on a play at third. Runge ended up shoving Eddie out of the way. I’d never seen that before, so I asked Eddie who has the right of way. Turns out, it’s the umpire.

Eddie said the third base coach has to be aware of the “slot” the umpire needs to be in to make a call. Eddie thought he’d left that slot clear, Runge disagreed and that’s why you saw him move Eddie out of the way.

Just what the doctor ordered

If you’re like me (and God help you if you are) after Tuesday’s game against the Tigers, you probably thought, “Great, they just played sloppy baseball and now they have to face Justin Verlander.” Surprisingly enough, Doug Sisson thought facing Justin Verlander was just what the doctor ordered. Doug’s reasoning went like this: when you’re facing the best pitcher in baseball, everybody knows you better bring your “A” game. The Royals did.

Verlander might’ve done more for the Royals mindset than any manager’s speech.

The Royals played very good baseball in the Verlander game and did the same again last night. I asked Ned Yost if he believed the Verlander game had some carryover and he said, some — that and facing the Yankees at home didn’t hurt either.

Comments

Michael Cost
1 year ago

Mouuuuuuuseeeeee! I think he is one of our all star gamers this year along with butler. I heard that host pulled Duffy because he had not pitched for 11 days. Why does that matter? I figured he would be well rested
Larry Tindle
1 year ago

Michael it probably had more to do with the reason he had not pitched in 11 days. He had elbow soreness so was not surprised they pulled him when they did. Wouldn’t want that injury to continue.
Donald Wilson
1 year ago

What a great game!!!!! However, hopefully someone sat down with Dyson and reminded him about keeping his head in the game. Derek Jeter taking second base after Dyson caught a fly ball was uncalled for. You might try to sugar coat it by saying he is still young but he has played enough ball to know you can’t relax in those situations - especially against the Yankess and Jeter. Absolutely uncalled for! Also a question: How long can we go by using 4,5,6 pitchers every game?
Eileen Schmeichel
1 year ago

Lee, you handsome devil. What the heck was Frenchy doing trying to steal 3b after his hustle double in the 8th? This error is far more worthy of note than the 2b itself. It is also a stat head bete noir. I apologize to your ardent defender Jim FeterROFL in advance, I don’t have the exact citation with me. However, my recollection is that stealing 3rd, with one out, offers such a miniscule benefit that it is not worth the risk. Trying to defend this stuff reminds me of how the LAPD tried to defend every blow to Rodney King by interpreting flinches and reactions to pain as aggressive movements. Can’t we all just get along? With common sense?
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

Wow, great game, and great to get a home win!!! All three outs in the 9th were worthy of SportsCenter. On the DP, Getz does a great job just getting to the ball, let alone making the flip to second. Escobar had to wait for the toss and couldn’t do much more than push the ball to first - amazing he got as much on the throw as he did, and Hosmer’s nickname ought to be Scoop!

The slow roller to Moose - simply a great play all the way around. Great insight, too, Lee. We don’t get to see the team practice, and it’s interesting to know the background behind the game-ending play.

A question, though. In the 7th, we go to Mijares to face Granderson for a lefty-lefty matchup, which makes sense on the surface. But Granderson is hitting lefties better than righties so far - and it’s a significant edge - something like .303 vs. .258. Mijares had allowed lefties only 3 hits in 24 previous at-bats and hadn’t faced Granderson this year, but Granderson was 2-for-3 against Mijares last year. So why not bring in a righty or leave Adcock out there? Was this maybe a test case to see if Mijares’s success against lefties is a truer trend than Granderson’s? It struck me as odd.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

JW: “Why do they keep giving him [Frenchy] the green light?”

JF: “Situational and based on pitcher time to the plate, catcher pop time, and Frenchy’s times to the next base. With one out and Quinteros at the plate it might have been a percentage move. Frenchy does seem to have lost a step, started last fall.”

My point is, it’s not working and it never has (it didn’t start last fall). In his first six seasons, Frenchy attempted a TOTAL of 41 steals (and 10 of those were withe the Mets the last part of 2010). With Atlanta, he never had more than SEVEN attempts in a SEASON. With the Royals last year he ran 32 times. Frenchy has a career SB% of 60 and it’s not improving. He should not have the green light to steal third. Period.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

JF: “Bob Dutton from today’s chat on kcstar.com: He also said that Getz does the little things well:)

Emphasis on “LITTLE”. Yes, he does some little things well. We need a player who does the big things well. A backhanded compliment if I’ve ever seen one.
Greg Tatro
1 year ago

I guess if it takes this long to get the first home win…why not have it be against the Yankees. It stinks about Mo Rivera’s injury though as he is one of the few Yankees I like.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

Doug Sisson thinks it would be good for the Royals to face Verlander every day. Now I understand why Lee listens to him. It’s statements like that that get the metrics crowd upset. Justifiably so.
Larry Tindle
1 year ago

Jim, just exactly who pee’d in your cheerio’s this morning. We win our first home game, and it’s the Yankees, and not one possitive thing in your 3 posts.

It’s starting to look from the outside that all you want to do is pick a fight with JF.
Jim Bradley
1 year ago

During the ninth inning, when the home plate umpire called a pitch a strike that A-Rod obviously thought was a ball, Rodriguez turn to the umpire and raised his hands.

Ryan said that looked a little like he was showing the umpire up. Was that a situation where someone of less stature than A-Rod might have gotten run?

One would assume building a Hall of Fame career would buy you some slack :)
Mike Powell
1 year ago

Jim, I can understand disagreeing with some of what the coaches say. I even buy what you’re saying about Frenchy’s base-stealing to some extent, although I’d be a lot more interested to know, for example, how many times Frenchy scored runs when he wouldn’t have otherwise. That is, after he steals, does he get advanced? Even if he’s getting thrown out at a pretty high clip, if he’s increasing the number of runs scored, it’s the right decision.

On the other two things, it really does seem like you’re just grumpy for its own sake. Getz has been playing his hindquarters off so far this year. His career numbers haven’t been great, and maybe he’s due to regress, but until he does, he’s a better alternative than anyone else we’ve got. As far as Sisson’s comment goes, you’d be advocating for the metrics crowd better if you responded to what he actually said.

If what Lee has to say upsets you so much, I’m not sure why you read this blog. Seems like you’re giving yourself a lot of unnecessary stress.

As far as it goes, I’m loving what I’m seeing out of Moose this year. His bat has been great, obviously, but all the fielding work in the offseason obviously paid off, because his glove has improved substantially.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Lee -

Has Yost said anything about his use of Mijares?

Mijares looks like a classic lefty specialist. For his career and this year, right-handed batters have posted excellent numbers against him. Most managers bring these types of pitchers in to face one or two left-handed batters and that’s it.

But 48% of the batters Mijares has faced this year have hit right handed.

Last night, Yost brought Mijares in to face Granderson, a lefty (makes sense), but then he leaves Mijares in to face Teixiera and Rodriguez, both hitting righty. Mijares has already faced Miguel Cabrera (twice) and Asdrubal Cabrera this year. These are four of the best right-handed hitters in the American League.

Is Yost playing a hunch? Is he looking at different numbers? Mijares’ numbers against RHB this year are pretty much in line with his career numbers — high walk rate (4 walks per 9 innings) and the batters are making good contact (Line Drive % of almost 40%). His ERA is helped by the fact that some runs (like last night) were inherited runners and that none of his fly balls have gone over the fence, but we’d expect the latter to change, especially as the weather warms up. It doesn’t seem like we’d want him facing right-handed hitters.

Any thoughts?
Derek Taylor
1 year ago

And he stared at the ump later in the at-bat after an obvious ball… I can’t recall the last time I saw someone get so upset with the umpire without them getting upset back.

(And Mr. Wilson, I don’t remember reading that Sisson would like to face Verlander every day, just that this instance was good player motivation)

It’s nice to see some well played games being strung together.
Derek Taylor
1 year ago

(By he I meant A-Rod… I guess a couple comments got posted between mine and the previous A-Rod comment)
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Mike -

Interesting question. I don’t know if there’s any place that tracks how decisions like stolen base attempts actually work out. In the case of a caught stealing, of course, we can’t know what would have happened since the out on the basepaths means one less batter at the plate that inning. But it might be interesting to see on how many stolen bases a runner scored and how many of those he would have ended up scoring anyway (even without the SB).

However, I’d also just put this thought out there: we have the advantage of hindsight, but the runner (and/or coach) doesn’t when he makes the decision to run. He’s playing the probabilities. He’s playing the probability that he’ll steal the base (in Francoeur’s case, he had a career 61% stolen base success rate and a 40% success rate when stealing 3rd) and the probability that reaching the base would make a difference in the number of runs scored. Looking at the overall numbers gives us a pretty good idea of the probabilities that the runner was facing when he made his decision.

Also, I’d mistakenly written here two days ago that Francoeur has generally been good over his career about taking the extra base when another hitter puts the ball in play. I must have missed the minus sign because he is actually below average for his career now after a terrible year last year.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Michael: I think Larry’s right, they were just being cautious with Duffy.

Donald: You spotted one of the thing on my list that I didn’t get to: Jeter taking advantage of Dyson. Jarrod looked surprised that Jeter tagged. Dyson also ran some interesting routes, but had the speed to get there to make spectacular plays. Better routes and the catches might not have been so spectacular.

Eileen: Glad you think I’m handsome and that we should get along—which seems to mean me accepting whatever you tell me. Didn’t I marry you?

All kidding aside, I don’t think most professional baseball people would accept that there’s a one-size-fits-all answer to any strategy or situation. Feel free to diagree.

Jim: Thnaks, I’m glad I was there to see the work that went into the game-ending play. Moose told me Eddie was pumped about him making the throw from underneath.

Couldn’t tell you about the pitching strategy. Ned told me a couple guys were unavailable in the bullpen—whoever pitched back to back Tuesday and Wednesday, can’t remember—and that may have changed his matchups. But that’s just a guess.

Greg: I did the same thing, tore my ACL catching a pop fly—a little twist—and pow. The ACL is kind of like a rope and I had a frayed rope in there. Something you’ve done a million times, do it a million and one and the rope snaps. Frenchy was saying he hoped Mo comes back, not because he wants to face him, but because he thinks Rivera deserves a better ending to his career.

Jim: If you haven’t played or managed Sisson’s reasoning makes little sense. I got what he was saying immediately.

Coaches are always on players to control the little things—they add up to big things—and often it goes in one ear and out the other.

Facing Justin Verlander every player knows he’s not going to give up much and if you beat him, it’ll be close. A missed sign, lack of hustle, letting your mind wander at the wrong moment can cost you the game.

I managed over 500 games with ex-college and pro players and thought we’d often play “down” or “up” to our opponent’s level. Our opponents often brought their best game, we’d won a lot of championships and they were in that “Verlander” mindset.

I’s pretty sure Doug doesn’t think facing Verlander every day would be a good idea, but after however many thousands of games he’s coached, managed and played in, he knew what facing the best can do for you.

The Royals would either play up to the competition or roll over. They played up and walked out of Detroit knowing they can beat anybody if they play well.

That confidence can build and I don’t think it’s an accident that they played well again last night. That’s a lot to gain from facing one pitcher.

In my experience playing and managing, I thought Sisson was exactly right and figured people who hadn’t played would find what he was saying of interest.
Larry Tindle
1 year ago

I don’t remember last year everyone ranting that Gordons numbers would not hold up all year. If you looked at his past numbers you would have said he would come back down to earth. What was different? He changed his approach.

Fast forward to this year. Lots of people do not believe Getz will maintain his present production. He has to go back to his previous production. Let’s look at it. He changed his approach. Sound familiar?

I don’t know if he can maintain it all year, but I will not get on him until he proves otherwise.
Jim Kissane
1 year ago

At some point, all of the little things can be big things, and Thursday’s win is a good example. Playing within themselves also makes players more effective - Moose and Hos getting RBI singles, for example, because the situation required any hit rather than a big one (as opposed to Moose’s HR, which with nobody on gives a batter a little more latitude to “make something happen” because there’s less risk).

The Royals also did a great job of keeping the Yankees from doing any big things, and they had many opportunities to do so.

As for Francoeur’s base-stealing, yes his percentage definitely needs to improve. Kind of a toss-up, leaving him at second and depending on either of the next two batters to get a hit or stealing third and counting on a sac fly or right-side grounder. No guarantee either way - Gordon couldn’t score from second on Hosmer’s single to left in the fifth (although Moustakas picked him up), and Dyson died at third after getting their with one out in the first. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

In any case, Frenchy says he slipped - stuff happens. If there were Mulligans for slipping on the field, Mariano Rivera wouldn’t be facing the possibility of ending his career on the DL, which is very sad for him and for the game.
Lee Judge
1 year ago

Time for one more response and then I’ve got stuff to do before tonight’s game:

A-Rod is not the most popular guy in the major leagues. Displays like last night’s are one of the reasons why. He also pulled up on a pop fly when he still had room and let the ball drop. Compare that to Jeter going headfirst into a seat to make a catch and it’s not hard to figure out who a pitcher wants behind him.

Brendan: No I haven’t heard how Yost views Mijares, but like I said in the previous comment, he had some guys unavailable last night. Maybe that figured in.

I also think you’ve got a good idea: how many times did a risk pay off? It’s not enough to say that didn’t work so stop doing it. The real question is what alternative is better?

Doug Sisson told me the organization had serious discussions about adopting an aggressive base-running attitude and eventually decided that playing station-to-station baseball was hurting them worse than aggressive running would. Those are the two choices and they went aggressive.

I don’t think you can take Frenchy’s career average for stealing third and decide whether he should’ve gone. They were playing a specific game with a specific pitcher in a specific situation last night.

I know they wanted to add an insurance run for the 9th. That’s why Jeff busted it out of the box and hustled a single into a double. He held while letting the red-hot Moustakas hit and decided he needed to get to third with the less than red-hot Quintero at the plate.

It may have still been a bad decision, but I’d need to have some more information (Soriano’s delivery time, Russell Martin’s pop time and the matchup numbers with Quintero and Getz) before saying so.

But that’s just me.

Mike: Yeah, I try to get to all the practices I can—which is why my day at the park starts about four hours before game time—and Moose has been putting in a lot of work on defense.

Recognizing the effort and why practice matters is one of the reasons the players have responded as well as they have to my questions.
Ben Weddle
1 year ago

What a game! Anyone who has ever played competitive sports can see that, but for a few fits and starts, this team is beginning to gel. I really felt as though I was watching the “changing of the guard” last night. I understand that this might still be premature but it was reminiscent of the late ‘70’s, early ‘80’s when those Royals were no longer intimidated by baseball’s best teams. That ninth inning made believers out of not only a lot of fans but that team as well. It might be time to package Wil Myers and another prominent player to acquire a #1 starter but I’ll leave that to Dayton. He’s done a pretty good job so far.
Joel Kallem
1 year ago

Speaking of Getz and his value. I’m sure everybody noticed, but no one commented on it, that Getz really drove the ball on his double and on the catch Jones made after a hard run. Jim, you can cite his past statistics, but you also have to realize this is a “new” Getz and they may or may not be relevant in the future. If in fact his hitting has improved over the long haul, given his defensive ability and his abilities in all the “little” things which end up in positive things happening for the team, we may be looking at a permanent solution for second base. It will be interesting to follow him during this stretch where he will be the everyday performer at second.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Lee -

I should note that the percentages on Francoeur stealing third are also less reliable because he had only 5 attempted steals of 3rd before last night. Not a big sample.

However, the one nice thing about small sample sizes is that it makes it easier to remember that averages are built up from lots of specific cases. That’s six times in his career that Francoeur thought the situation (the pitcher’s time to the plate, the batter’s handedness, the catcher’s arm, the third baseman’s glove) made attempting a steal a good risk, and 4 times the result has been to remove a runner from scoring position.

I take Francoeur at his word that he slipped last night. And maybe there have been mitigating circumstances in the other 3 caught stealing situations. But he’s not very good at stealing 2nd base either (his career SB% is 60%) and he’s getting picked off too often as well (if you include pickoffs, his SB% drops to 56%).

I know some baseball people hold aggregate statistics in disdain because they don’t capture all of the circumstantial data, but I hope that somebody is at least talking with Francoeur about these data. He’s either quite unlucky (which is possible — the full sample of stolen base attempts plus pickoffs is only 80) or he’s misreading the situation on when the odds are in his favor.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Joel -

There was a good piece at Royals Review yesterday looking at Getz’s stats since the batting stance change and noting a significant increase in his isolated power (ISO = SLG-OBP) numbers. You might enjoy it:

http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/5/3/2996523/royal-rumblings-5-3-12

Lee -

No pitcher pitched Monday and Tuesday, and only Crow pitched Sunday and Monday. With Wednesday an off day, it didn’t seem like rest would be an issue.

However, I know people get sick and there’s other stuff that might come up on any given night, so my question was intended to be more about the season in general than last night in particular. Why is Mijares facing so many righties (especially good ones) this year?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“My point is, it’s not working and it never has”

Certainly you realize that career attempts give no insight into Frenchy apparently losing a step last year? This is another example of the superiority of eyeballs and stop watches over stats from years back to understand where a player is now, which is the only player that matters in an actual game.

As for his attempt last night, the baseball logic has been covered a few times and I agree with the attitude of aggressive running to try to create runs by a relatively low-scoring team. When we get Robinson Cano and Troy Tulowiski coming up with Frenchy on second in a close game, then he can play it differently. Unfortunately, it’s not fantasy baseball at the K and the odds of the Royals snaring that 2B and SS in their primes is likely slim.

“or he’s misreading the situation on when the odds are in his favor.”

Or he is reading the specific game situation and decides the attempt is worth the risk. We had a discussion last year about Hosmer attempting to steal 3rd and got the stats going back to Queen Victoria showing that it was a bad choice. Those stats, though, weren’t weighted for Ubaldo, for Ubaldo dealing, for Moose hitting .200 at the time, and Getz at .225 in a 2-1 game with one out and late.

Stats are good for what they can cover and we all use them, as I did yesterday to explode the myth that Billy or Gordon would have been better to face Benoit in Detroit than Getz. But stats are limited without very specific, on-the-spot weighting that currently can only be done in real time in a player or coach’s head. But stats are the kibitzer’s best friend and the kibitzer is always right:)
KC Guy
1 year ago

Regarding Francouer’s attempted steal of 3rd base last night: I’ve seen the run probability/expected runs tables for any given situation, but I’d be more interested in knowing what percentage of time a runner on 3rd base with 1 out scores vs. a runner on 2nd base with 1 out. In a lot of ways, it doesn’t really matter what the average run expectancy is in that situation, since that’s looking at every inning of every game. The stat Francouer is running against is how much he increases the chance of successfully scoring one run in the 8th inning of a one run game by stealing 3rd vs. staying put..
Lee Judge
1 year ago

I’ve said this before, but Frenchy’s enthusiasm, the same attribute that makes him so valuable in the clubhouse and at times on the field, can also bite him in the behind.

There are plays he makes just because he thinks he can. He thinks he can throw out a runner at first and does. He thinks he can overthrow the cutoff man and nail a runner going first to third and does. He thinks he can climb a wall and go into the stands to bring a home run back and does.

But he’s not always right about what he can get away with.

They don’t want to kill that enthusiasm, but when he starts going overboard, they talk to him about dialing it back.

Don’t know if the play last night is on that list, but I know they’ve talked to him about taking good gambles.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jim F -

If he’s getting thrown out 40% of the time, he’s probably reading the situation wrong. I’m surprised anyone would debate that.

I don’t really understand how you use stats. My impression is that, if you don’t like what they say, then the sample size is too small or they’re just long-term averages not relevant to the current situation. If you like what they say, they “explode the myth that Billy or Gordon would have been better to face Benoit in Detroit than Getz.”

I don’t always agree with how Lee Judge analyzes the game. I don’t always agree with how Bill James analyzes the game. But I respect that both of them believe in their approach and are consistent with it. Lee (at least in my impression) trusts that the players and managers are making good decisions because they have more information than us, and he seeks to understand why they do what they do and believe what they believe. Bill James (at least in my impression) believes that the human mind is subject to all sorts of biases that make it difficult to perceive the big picture and especially to rationally analyze strongly held notions. He seeks to put all conclusions on an objective statistical basis.

I, obviously, lean more toward the Bill James side (trust the numbers). Lots of people on here lean more toward the Lee Judge side (trust the people in the game). But I can’t figure out where you’re coming from. Your use of stats is hard for me to follow.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

One other note:

The Royals are not a bad offensive team. They are a good hitting team. They’re 5th in the AL in hitting this year. They were 5th last year. Small ball is better strategy for bad offenses than it is for good offenses, but the Royals hit well. We haven’t been as good about scoring runs (10th this year, 6th last year), and I think the gap between hitting and run scoring largely results from giving away outs in the small ball game.
Bryce Jones
1 year ago

I follow the minor league games fairly closely. You can listen to all the minor league teams free on the net. Moose was a definite liability in the minors. I have been surprised how well he has played this year. Apparently, the defensive work is paying off.
Jeffry L Jack
1 year ago

Lee, I think you have hit on Frenchy’s secret—he is the baseball version of Tyshawn Taylor.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

KC G-

The expectancy of scoring exactly one run (which I think is what you’re asking):

Runner on second, one out: 23.1% Runner on third, one out: 48.5% Bases empty, two outs: 4.8%

Run environment is 4.5 runs/game, which is what the Royals achieved last year. If we used this year’s pace, the percentages would be quite a bit lower.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

KC G -

And here’s the win expectancy:

Home team, up 1, 8th inning:

Runner on second, one out: 88.1%. Runner on third, one out: 90.4%. Bases empty, two outs: 84.5%.

Again, I’m using a 4.5 R/G environment.
KC Guy
1 year ago

“We haven’t been as good about scoring runs (10th this year, 6th last year), and I think the gap between hitting and run scoring largely results from giving away outs in the small ball game.”

The Royals are actually close to the bottom as far as number of sacrifice bunts, and have been caught stealing 10 times this year. Even if you assume that all 10 runners that were caught stealing would have scored (which is obviously too high), it would move the Royals from 11th in runs scored to…9th. Obviously it hurts to give away outs on the bases, but the problem is that the offense hasn’t been consistent. The hits have been there overall, but not bunched together enough to result in runs. The Royals are near the top of the league in doubles, but near the bottom in HRs, meaning multiple hits and inning to score runs, which just hasn’t been happening frequently enough so far. So they’re trying to remedy that by moving runners into scoring position in other ways, which hasn’t been as successful as they would like so far..
Eric Blatt
1 year ago

This made me smile:

“Stats are good for what they can cover and we all use them, as I did yesterday to explode the myth that Billy or Gordon would have been better to face Benoit in Detroit than Getz.”

See more fun examples:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductioadabsurdum
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“I think the gap between hitting and run scoring largely results from giving away outs in the small ball game.

Possible, but probably hard to quantify. Last night, for instance, the only reason Frenchy was even on 2nd was aggressive base running.

“Your use of stats is hard for me to follow.”

Stats are one of many tools available in the box and some stats give more information than others. Last night two defensive plays give an example, the Getz-Escobar-Hosmer DP and Moose throwing out A-Rod and ending the game. The pie stats probably tell us that Moose made a play the majority of 3B make in that pie slice, other stats suggest it an outstanding play in a high-leverage situation, so worth some numerical recognition. Getz got the ball on the right side of the infield, so no big deal, then made a flip to Esky, who then threw to Hosmer, who made a play in his pie-slice. Or we can see that Getz made an outstanding snag and outstanding throw to Esky, who was saved by an outstanding catch by Hosmer. Four outstanding plays saved two runs. I find the second system of evaluation much more useful.

“Bill James (at least in my impression) believes that the human mind is subject to all sorts of biases that make it difficult to perceive the big picture and especially to rationally analyze strongly held notions. He seeks to put all conclusions on an objective statistical basis.”

That is why I posted the most specific stats relevant to Getz’ plate appearance against Detroit from Baseball Reference. Strongly held notions didn’t hold up well to an objective statistical look. I even, in an effort to use a common language with the fangraphs’ crowd, used career numbers, the largest relevant sample size.

“I think the gap between hitting and run scoring largely results from giving away outs in the small ball game.”

Others might think it comes from our big ball players striking out in critical situations. I think, if you could make a trendline, you would see this a moving target. Against Verlander, Big Ball had some opportunities, last night some more. Correct me if I’m wrong, but you seem to think small-ball is the only tool the Royals use rather than an available tool used as needed. My opinion is that when Hosmer’s hits start falling the gap will shrink a little, Gordon is heating up, which a trend might show, Frenchy has identified a regression to a bad habit and corrected it, but Billy is kinda streaky.

“If he’s getting thrown out 40% of the time, he’s probably reading the situation wrong. I’m surprised anyone would debate that.”

I would. The situation might dictate that it is worth the risk. He had better than a coin-flip chance to create a run when the following weak hitter grounded out. The stop-watch numbers had it a good chance, and Frenchy slipped. Had he had Hosmer and Billy following him, it would have been a bad play. Just the situation.
Thayne Griffin
1 year ago

Last summer I went and saw the Royals play at the Twins and Moose was absolutely horrid on defense. He twice failed to turn a DP and hard ground balls to third and both runners ended up scoring. To say his defense has vastly improved this year is an understatement. Plays like he made in the 9th inning last night will just motivate him to keep doing those practices with Eddie (the hitting is nice too! ;)).

Also, how about Hosmer’s scoop? Absolutely incredible. Esky was blown up by the slide and managed to get just enough on the throw to get it there in time and had faith that Hos would make a play on it - and he did.
Eric Blatt
1 year ago

Brendan -

So the breakeven point on Frenchy’s SB attempt was about 60%—maybe a little lower given the poor hitters coming up.

I’m sure that in the moment, Frenchy thought he had a 100% chance of stealing successfully, but I know that when he left 2B, I thought there was about a 90% chance he’d be thrown out.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

KC G -

The problem with a caught stealing isn’t just that that runner can’t score; it’s that, by giving up one of our three outs that inning, we’ve significantly reduced the chances of other batters in the inning scoring.

According to Baseball-Reference, the Royals have 10 caught stealing; 3 picked off (not incl in caught stealing); and 9 other outs while running the bases. That’s 22 outs in 24 games. I think that’s way too many.

I fully support playing for one run in the 8th or 9th inning if we’re tied or down one run. I think this team is playing small ball too much and too early in games.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“we’ve significantly reduced the chances of other batters in the inning scoring.

Had Frenchy stopped at 1st, what were the odds of hims scoring with the hitters following him? Every play changes the odds. I would guess that Frenchy’s odds of scoring from 2nd with one odd were fairly low given the following hitters and that that was part of Frenchy’s calculations.

“That’s 22 outs in 24 games. I think that’s way too many.”

So does Doug Sisson: “Doug said the runners had worked on cleaning up some of the problems they had earlier in the season and were nine for their last 10 attempts. Make that nine for their last 11.” Trend numbers have their uses.
KC Guy
1 year ago

No, I understand that. There are still times when the payoff potentially means much more in an individual game, as long as the actual attempt was a good gamble (which can obviously be debated on its own).

Also, I can find the number of pick-offs and other outs on the bases, but can’t seem to find the individual plays listed anywhere. I know the outs on the bases also include line-drive double plays and things of that nature, so something like the triple play a few games ago is going to give the Royals two outs on the bases, when that’s almost out of the baserunner’s control. I can’t remember them specifically getting thrown out taking gambles on the bases more than a couple of times.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

KC G -

If you want the individual plays, the best place I know of is Retrosheet (http://www.retrosheet.org/) which has play-by-play logs of all the games.

You’re right that the outs on the bases included the triple play. I though about taking that out because I didn’t have a problem with it (I’m still not sure that ball was caught), but I know that there was discussion here about Gordon having made a mental mistake on that play.
Jim Wilson
1 year ago

First off, I was and am very excited about the WIN!!

And I like a lot of what Lee writes.

My posts at the beginning were following up on several posts by Jim F. from the prior game’s thread. And Jim F. does like to pick a “fight.” (And that’s okay, he’s generating mental stimulation; no one’s getting hurt.) His position shifts with the sand … On more than one occasion, he’s argued with me on one side and then learned that I was repeating something Lee said or using sarcasm and completely flipped to the other side.

Lee, I have played and I have coached and managed. Baseball and a number of other sports. And you may get a greater effort from your team when you play a Verlander. But you’re also going to lose a lot more than you’re going to win against him. If want to win, it’s better to play against an average pitcher (or worse) than one of the best. These “truisms” about effort are not unique to baseball, even though you constantly claim that only you and Doug Sisson have climbed the mountain of knowledge. You don’t have to have been on the “dirt” to think they are true or not. To the extent they are true, they apply to every sport and to the business world. Baseball being more of a collection of individual efforts than most team sports, I believe these “truisms” apply to a lesser degree, if at all.

Mike, Frenchy doesn’t have a successful stolen base this season so it’s not possible he has incresed the number of runs scored. I’m actually very positive about this team. Sorry I sound grumpy.
Blair Bieser
1 year ago

I was at an earlier home game where Duffy pitched, and he seemed to have trouble executing an intentionally walk. I checked the posts for Duffy’s other two home starts, and nobody mentioned this. Last night, Duffy seemed to pitch around a couple of guys, but he didn’t issue any intentional walks. Does Duffy have a problem with this? I remember the Royals actually having Hosmer stand halfway between first and home during that earlier intentional walk. Does anybody know why that was?
Jim Fetterolf
1 year ago

“Again, I’m using a 4.5 R/G environment.”

Brendan, Royals actual run environment is 3.875 R/G.
Larry Tindle
1 year ago

Blair, it is not too uncommon for a pitcher to have trouble with the intentional walk. I don’t understand it because to me it’s just like playing catch. I remember Dotel throwing one to the screen a couple of years ago. They moved Hosmer up so if Duffy did it they would have 2 people to chase it down. May be a better solution for Duffy to just tell him to do 4 pitchouts.

The other strange fact is sometimes a catcher will get to where they cannot throw the ball back to the pitcher. That’s where the sports shrink comes into play.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Jim F -

Whatever doubts I had that you were just trolling for conflict are being slowly erased.

What I said in the post immediately above the one you quoted: “Run environment is 4.5 runs/game, which is what the Royals achieved last year. If we used this year’s pace, the percentages would be quite a bit lower.”

I do not think this year’s sample is large enough to conclude that our run environment has dropped substantially, especially since we’re hitting about as well as last year. That is why I did not use this year’s runs/game as our run environment. I believe going forward, we will average about 4.5 runs per game, especially if we succeed in fixing the running game.

Using 4.0 runs/game: Runner on second, one out: 89.0% Runner on third, one out: 91.2% Bases empty, two outs: 85.7%
Devan Shopinski
1 year ago

Dyson made two mistakes last night. The fly ball and lack of urgency to get the ball back in that allowed Jeter to advance from 1st. The other was the long fly to left that Nix had to play against the fence that Dyson did not advance on. He turned his back to the play and jogged very slowly back to first. You have to keep the play in front of you and watch the ball the entire play!

That being said, he made two beautiful catches in CF and seems to be getting better reads on fly balls, especially the ones over his head. He’s also hitting, getting on base, and has scored 5 runs since being recalled.
KC Guy
1 year ago

I didn’t consider it a mistake for Dyson on the ball that Nix tracked down. It was not a routine fly ball — Nix had to make a nice running catch into the fence to record the out — which means it had a fairly high chance of dropping. Therefore, Dyson wasn’t tagging, he was at (or past) 2nd base, so that he could score if it dropped. As compared to the ball Jeter tagged on — it was a routine fly ball that the outfielder was camped under and waiting on, so there’s no reason for him to be very far from 1st.

I didn’t really get the complaint from Hudler that Dyson needed to keep watching the ball in case someone misplayed the throw back to the infield. In order to advance, he had to go all the way back to 1st, then tag and try to move up, and, even as fast as he is, there’s almost no way he would have had time to move up, even on a mishandled throw. I mean, yeah, it’s always a good idea to stay aware of what’s happening, but if something extraordinary happened, he also has a base coach to scream at him..
Curtis Ruder
1 year ago

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

That is the run expectancy matrix for the last 60 years of major league baseball.

Since scoring is down, I think the most accurate matrix for our purpose is the middle one, 1969 to 1992. I also think that in the bottom of the eighth last night, we were clearly playing for one run to try to extend the lead to two.

So the relevant numbers are from the middle chart, middle column. An inning with a runner on second and one out will result in at least one run .411 of the time. An inning with a runner on third and one out will result in at least one run .664 of the time, for an increase of .253. None on and two out will result in at least one run .064 of the time, a decrease of .347.

So the break even percentage is found by solving this equation:

0.253X + (-.347)(1-X) = 0.

The solution to that equation is roughly 57% of the time. If, assuming an average pitcher, catcher, and hitters, Francouer could steal third 57% of the time or more, then it was a good gamble. If not, then it is a poor gamble.

I tend to think the situation called for increased aggressiveness. First, we did not have our best hitters coming up, but were at the bottom of the order. Second, we had a right hand hitter up there providing a bit of a screen on the throw to third. So I would think the odds of success could be somewhat lower than 57% and make the gamble still worth it.

Usually, when running these numbers, the success rate needs to be at least in the 75% or so range to be a good gamble, but in this case, the success percentage could be quite a bit lower. This means that this was as productive a time to gamble as you are going to find: it was late in the game, so each run is magnified in a close game.

The situation called for aggressiveness; he slipped a bit in the execution, making it look really bad. But that does not call into question the strategy whatsoever.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year ago

Curtis -

Here’s a run expectancy chart for all run environments from Tom Tango.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkimQBCeCjbjIgxJ9vKvJSQ

The 1969-1992 environment might have been the best of those three choices, but it is too low. The Royals were at 4.5 runs per game last year and the AL average was 4.46. The 69-92 average is going to be closer to 4.2