Games: Cleveland Indians, April 25: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Cleveland Indians

Apr25

Ya gotta start somewhere

Whether you’re overweight, have a gambling problem or haven’t won a baseball game in 12 attempts, this piece of advice applies: “You didn’t get in trouble in one day. You ain’t gettin’ out of trouble in one day, either.” This bit of wisdom was given to me by the Pittsburgh Pirates’ manager, Clint Hurdle.

Hurdle’s point was that you can’t rush the process — the longest journey begins with one step. The Royals took a step Wednesday night. They will have to take another Thursday afternoon. Thinking big, wanting things to happen right now often brings disaster. The game of baseball requires you to play it one pitch, one inning, one game at a time.

The Royals have a long way back to respectability, but ya gotta start somewhere.

Know you know

I’m sitting on my couch, feeling the pressure build as the game goes along. I’m hoping Royals starter Luke Hochevar holds it together. I’m nervous about the possibility of the Royals going into the bottom of the ninth inning with only a two-run lead and Jonathan Broxton coming out of the bullpen.

Sound familiar?

And we’re only sitting on our couches in the comfort of our living rooms. The players are the ones who have to perform in the clutch.

So how does a clutch performer get it done? I was lucky enough to take batting practice once a week with George Brett the winter before he retired from baseball. (He needed someone to hit with because the pitching machine kept clogging and George wanted me to stand at the other end of the batting tunnel and unclog it.) I asked George a thousand questions that winter, and one of them was, “How did you perform so well in the clutch?”

“Because some people can’t forget that the tying run is on second, it’s the bottom of the ninth and it’s the World Series,” he told me “When I’m going good, I can.”

Was there ever a moment in Wednesday night’s game that you weren’t aware that the Royals were trying to end a long losing streak? That’s why he’s George Brett, and you’re not. When your mind is on matters that don’t affect the situation at hand, bad things happen.

Game stuff

Billy Butler hits a home run with Chris Getz on first base. Indians pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is in a “quick step”— a move designed to get the ball to home plate in a hurry. This prevents Getz from stealing, but the downside is the quickstep can cause a pitch to stay up in the strike zone. The pitch to Butler does. Jimenez delivers the ball to home plate in 1.3 seconds. Butler delivers the ball to the right-field stands just about as quickly.

Jimenez was also varying his set, holding the ball in the set position for varying amounts of time. These distractions that aid the hitter are part of the value of the stolen base.

When Jimenez has a runner on second — and he’s not worried about the steal — he delivers the ball to home plate at a more leisurely 1.7 seconds.

By my count, Hochevar threw first-pitch strikes to 15 batters, two of whom got hits.

Both Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are beginning to hit the ball the other way and take walks. That’s always a good sign.

In the fourth inning, Humberto Quintero tried to bunt for a hit. The Indians’ third baseman was not playing that deep, and the attempt failed. In the sixth inning, with Mike Moustakas on second, no outs and the score 4-0, Quintero did not bunt, which possibly cost the Royals a run. Mitch Maier followed Quintero’s infield pop-up with a deep fly to center field. Moustakas tagged up and advanced to third but was called out for leaving the base too soon. A split-screen replay revealed that the umpire made a bad call. Had Quintero advanced Moustakas, Maier’s fly ball would have scored him — assuming Mitch would have gotten the same pitch, which is a big assumption. Not scoring a fifth run was worrisome.

Two innings later, Moose almost made a horrible mistake on the base paths. He stole second, the Indians’ catcher dropped the ball on the transfer and Mike assumed that the ball was fouled off. He then began to walk back to first base in an attempt to give coach Doug Sisson an on-field coronary.

Mike got back to second base safely, but he violated a cardinal rule of base-running: Wait until an umpire tells you what the ruling is. Never assume.

Royals manager Ned Yost has been criticized for his decision-making. A manager can avoid this criticism by never making a move — or never making a move that isn’t by the book. The manager can then blame the players for not performing well. That isn’t good managing, but it’s great covering your ass.

In the top of the ninth with Alcides Escobar on third base and Chris Getz on first, the Royals’ broadcast team wondered whether Getz would steal. Cleveland reliever Jairo Asencio was getting the ball to the plate in less than 1.2 seconds, so unless the Royals were convinced that the throw was not coming to second base, or they could find a breaking pitch to run on — which increases the time it takes to deliver the ball — a steal seemed unlikely.

Once again, a pitcher who was distracted by a base stealer gave up a home run when Alex Gordon ended a great plate appearance by hitting the ball out of the park.

Jonathan Broxton did not come out for the ninth inning. Even though it wasn’t a save situation, I wondered whether Ned will use the closer anyway. Yost sent out Jose Mijares instead. Three left-handers were coming to the plate. Mijares showed that Ned made the right decision, totally dominating Jack Hannahan, Jason Kipnis and Casey Kotchman.

Mijares also showed what a six-run lead can do for a pitcher’s mind-set and confidence. Mijares worked quickly and threw strikes. This is the approach pitchers need all the time, even when the game is close.

The Royals played music in the clubhouse tonight. The media got good interviews. A few players probably had a cold one in celebration, but that’s it. A day game after a night game means the players will be out on the field early Thursday morning, and the whole process of trying to win a game pitch-by-pitch, inning-by-inning will be repeated.

This is baseball.

Comments

Curtis Ruder
1 year, 1 month ago

Whew.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Yeah!!!
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month ago

CAN I GET A HOOO-RAH??

HOO-RAH!!!
Eric Miller
1 year, 1 month ago

That’s what it feels like….I’d forgotten.

Go Royals.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Hey, we’re only 6 games back! And we’re a decent road team (4-4).
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Biting my fingernails every step of the way—at least until Gordon unloaded in the 9th. Game notes have been sent in and should be posted shortly.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 1 month ago

I can’t recall the last time I was so happy to see W1 in the streak column on espn.com…

In other news, I didn’t see any points in your game grid for Hosmer’s home run (I would assume you were understandably excited to put in good numbers for a change and overlooked it).
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month ago

Was really fun watching the other team blow it for a change. Good starting pitching and timely hitting. Amazing what happens.
Greg Tatro
1 year, 1 month ago

A good win all around although I’m kicking myself for leaving Butler on the bench for my fantasy team.

Not to nitpick too much but I noticed the Indians got their first run as a result of two walks and their second one involving a walk and a hit by pitch. This free-passitis the Royals pitchers have needs to be eradicated.
Michael Cost
1 year, 1 month ago

I cant believe they got after jiminez so well. Awesome game!
John Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Alex’s homer was for me the big turn-around in the game. With runners at the corners, I couldn’t help but wonder if he would strikeout or ground into a double play. Finally, we got a hit with runners in scoring position instead!

It’s also great to see the mood in the comments change for the better :-)
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, great to see the win. Hopefully, just the first of many more. I noticed that Quintero did not “throw” off his mask on the foul pop up in the 5th, and that on several other plays he did the same. Does he always do that? I can’t remember him doing that, but I might not have noticed until last night. What is his rationale for doing that? I’d appreciate it if you could check it out when the club gets home.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Derek: Thanks for catching the missing Hosmer home run. (Hey, a joke!) no, it wasn’t unusual excitement, it was my usual ineptitude.

Last night’s grid had 559 boxes in it—the more players, the more boxes. I just missed that one. (Part of why I’m considering some kind of change to the score-keeping.)
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Mark: The Hochevar we saw last night is why the Royals keep running him out there—he’s capable of that. Hoch just needs to do it more often. First-pitch strikes are part of the formula.

Greg: Go ahead and nitpick. I should’ve written about that myself. The Royals need to play clean baseball to win consistently. Eliminating walks is a step in that direction.

John: When Gordon hit that home run I think everybody in KC and the Royals dugout heaved a sigh of relief. It allowed Mijares to confidently pound the zone—but that’s something the pitchers need to be doing all the time anyway. Looked like a different pitcher, didn’t he?

Joel: If we’re talking about the same thing Quintero does not throw his mask off because he uses a “hockey-style” mask.

They have a snug fit and don’t shift around on the face. (Every notice where the mask ends up whenh Brayan Pena throws the ball to second? It’s on the side of his face.)

So the guys that use the hocky mask can just leave them in place. The downside is they’re much hotter to wear.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month ago

Thanks for the explanation - makes sense as long as the visibility isn’t compromised. Must of just missed seeing it previously. Has to be a really firm fit to keep from shifting when running hard or throwing (violently).
Ben Weddle
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, Was Moustakas getting after Sisson as the Royals were taking the field following his snafu at second? It appeared he was angry at him. I can only guess for not telling him to stay on the base.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Ben: Don’t know, didn’t see it. But the announcers said Doug was yelling at Moose for all he was worth, trying to get Mike back to the base.

Blame some of that on the umpire. Drives me bats when they play cool and don’t make emphatic calls. It looked like Mike tried to find out what had happened, couldn’t get a clear answer and started back. (There’s the mistake.)

Moose probably wasn’t in a great mood after getting hosed on the call for leaving second too soon.

I’ll ask about it when they get home.
Gaines Arnold
1 year, 1 month ago

I Liked the Mijares ninth, but was excited to see Hottovoy (?) in the eighth also. That makes three players with childhood ties to the Royals: Gordon, Crow and Hottovoy. Cool to see guys who rooted for the team as youngsters playing well for their team as adults.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee -

Do you have any stats that back up the idea that pitchers do worse when they’re worried about the stolen base? You say that all the changes pitchers have to make add to the value of the stolen base, but the study I posted two days ago looked for and couldn’t find any hitting advantage to teams stealing bases.

Are you just assuming aggressive base stealing is benefitting the hitters or did the Royals’ stat team share some data with you?
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee -

I’ve done some more quick research, and it appears that there are two books out there that test your hypothesis that having a good base stealer on first helps the batter by distracting the pitcher.

The Book by Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin and Baseball Between the Numbers by Jonah Keri both looked at how batting outcomes differ when there’s a good base runner on first (measured by speed score or by number of stolen bases), and both found no difference. Tango speculates it might be because the batter is distracted as well, but who knows what the real reason is.

Regardless of the reason, it appears that there’s a lot of evidence that aggressive base stealing doesn’t help a team’s hitting at all.
Rick Crawford
1 year, 1 month ago

just try to pitch out of the stretch, not as easy as they make it look.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Rick -

All pitchers are (quite a bit) worse with men on base. Batting averages go up by about 20 points. Slugging goes up by about 30 points.

The question is whether they get even worse if the men on base are bigger threats to steal. There have been several studies that have looked for a difference in several different ways and none of them have found it.

This is all part of the larger question of whether the Royals are hurting or helping themselves by attempting so many stolen bases and whether they’d do better by attempting more or fewer.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendan, great job of continuing to bring this side of the game to this blog with your quality posts. It’s much needed. Patience and persistence . . .
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendan, your data shows yet another reason not to be aggressive on the base paths. Having a single runner thrown out not only results in the loss of the runner and an out, it also reduces the chances of success for the individual batters that follow.
Michael Deeter
1 year, 1 month ago

We’ve discussed several times about being able to steal when a pitcher delivers the ball in longer than 1.6 seconds.

But it seems that that is only for runners stealing 2nd. Is the number/time for stealing 3rd more/less?

For example, why do you mention that Jimenez could deliver the ball slower (1.7 secs) when a runner was on second base?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendan: You’re asking a serious question and it deserves a serious answer—wjich is going to turn into a Jr. High term paper. I’ll write it after I get today’s game notes finished and either post it in the game notes in the next day or two, or it will be added to this thread which you’ll be able to see in the “Your Views” section.
Thayne Griffin
1 year, 1 month ago

Two games in a row? How about that?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Michael: Just got a second, but the magic mark is actually 1.4 seconds for a pitcher. Runners take 3.4 seconds to go from first to third on average, catchers take 2.0 seconds to receive and throw the ball down to second on average, so the pitcher is the variable.

Above 1.4 and it’s hard to throw out the base stealer, below and it’s hard to steal a base. (Remember, these are averages. Times may vary in your area.)

Pitchers are usually slower to the plate with a runner on second. I actually don’t know the running times between second and third, but I’ll ask.

I know the leads vary more at second. The infielders can hold them close and shorten the lead at the cost of giving up the holes or they can play back and let the runner extend his lead.

When I get a chance I’ll ask Doug Sisson for more information.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee -

I know you’re doing this for fun, and I’m not paying anything for the service, so I don’t want to create a big writing burden. I hope my tone isn’t too harsh.

I’m just frustrated by the small-ball approach when I think we have a good hitting team that could do more damage if we focused on minimizing outs rather than trading outs for bases.

Anyway, I’m looking forward to the piece whenever you get it done, but I don’t want it to be a burden.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Now that I’ve claimed I don’t want to add to your burden, I will undermine that by following up on another question I’d asked earlier about something you wrote:

Our offense was above league average last year despite being extremely young. Our pitching was below league average. Our minor league system has more depth and quality for position players than pitchers. Given that, why would we build our team around pitching and defense (which fits with a small-ball approach) instead of offense (which implies conserving outs and playing for the big inning)?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendan: Actually, I think you’ve been quite reasonable. I think you’re someone who really wants to know the answers, not score intellectual points.

That makes me more sympathetic and I appreciate you understanding the situation I’m in (not enough hours in the day).

And I don’t know the answer to your second question. I think pitching and defense are good things all the time, (makes the offensive burden lighter), but I can’t speak for their overall philosophy. Nobody’s talked to me about that yet.

Which is good. It means I’ve got more to learn.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month ago

Michael: I suspect the catchers time to third base will be faster since it is a shorter distance. Just a guess.