Games » Toronto Blue Jays
Apr23The common thread
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
Baseball teams have won with togetherness — the “We Are Family” Pirates. Teams have won while beating the hell out of each other — the battlin’ Oakland A’s. Teams have won with fiery managers — Billy Martin. Teams have won with calm managers — Joe Torre. Teams have won with big budgets and small budgets, with jerks and nice guys, young guys and veterans — teams have won with just about every imaginable combination of intangibles.
So where’s the common thread?
No team has won without executing the fundamentals better than the opposition. That’s what Doug Sisson said to me today — again. I’m writing about it again because he’s right again. I’ve heard a lot of theories about what the Royals need to do to get back on track, but no theory makes as much sense as Doug’s: forget all that intangibles jazz — this game is about execution on the field. As Doug said, if this game were about intangibles, Tony Robbins would be in Cooperstown.
The fundamentals are throwing low strikes, taking care of the ball on defense, running the bases in an intelligent, yet aggressive manner, getting a good pitch to hit and not over-swinging when you do. And until the Royals start executing the fundamentals better than the opposition, they’ll lose.
(The guy’s totally right and I told him to whack me with a fungo bat any time I start getting touchy feely with my theories about winning and losing.)
Accountability
Some people, not familiar with the team, claim there’s no accountability in the Royals’ organization. I pointed out that Bob McClure might disagree — but the point was made even better by Doug Sisson. I told him I was there in spring training, I sat and watched drills for two weeks and I know he told these guys the right things to do on the base paths. Doug said that didn’t make any difference. He wasn’t going to put the blame on a player. Even if he told them what to do and they ignored those instructions five pitches later, it’s his fault. He has to make them understand and if they don’t there’s something wrong with the instruction.
The fundamentals: what they did wrong
Bruce Chen gave the team a rare quality start, but walked a leadoff hitter — Kelly Johnson — to get to Jose Bautista. Two-run homer.
Zero-9 with runners in scoring position. They also did not get the ball in play with a runner on third with less than two outs in multiple opportunities.
One of those opportunities was with Chris Getz at the plate. Yost put a safety squeeze on and Getz bunted the ball foul down the first base line. A safety squeeze requires a better bunt than a suicide. The runner waits to see that the bunt is good enough before breaking for home. On a suicide if the ball gets down anywhere the runner will probably be safe. The situation was first and third with one down and Ned may have been trying to avoid yet another double play — although Getz is pretty hard to double up.
Mitch Maier laid down a bunt to move Brayan Pena from second to third. The bunt was too close to the pitcher, Brandon Morrow, and Morrow was able to cut down Pena at third. (Remember Chris Getz’ theory on why that bunt should go to the first base side and not third? Getz had the same situation and successfully executed his bunt by pulling the pitcher away from third base.)
The fundamentals: what they did right
Mitch Maier’s bunt. The hitters can be given several signs with a runner on second and nobody out: drive him in, bunt or move him over any way you can. Mitch had the “move him over” sign. The selfish thing to do is go for a hit at the same time. Mitch tried to do the team thing and the way things are going, doing the right thing backfired.
After the game Yost said they’re monitoring the players closely for any sign of giving up or getting comfortable with losing. Eric Hosmer came to the plate in the 6th inning after hitting an opposite field home run in his first at-bat. Some guys decide to try for a big night and go for another long ball. Hosmer saw third playing back and over toward second in a shift and laid down a bunt instead. Eric slid into first base head first — the throw was wild so he got up, took off for second and slid into that base head first. You can fault a lot of things about this team, but effort is not on the list.
More outstanding effort: Chris Getz flared a hit to right field in the 7th that looked like a single, but then took off for second. Once the outfielder picked up the ball I saw why: it was Jose Bautista, right-hander. The ball was down the line taking Bautista to his left and it required a full spin and a throw with no momentum to get the ball to second base. I was congratulating myself on deciphering Getz’ motivation, but when I saw him in the clubhouse afterwards, he added something I hadn’t thought of: Chris knew he was going to block a direct throw to the bag by Bautista, he’d be in the way.
Alex Gordon played another double into a single, beating J.P. Arencibia’s ball to the left field wall, rounding the ball and coming up with his momentum headed toward second. Arencibia was subsequently forced out at second base.
It’s kind of getting lost in all the bad news, but Mike Moustakas is playing the hell out of third base. (In fact, the entire defense has played well.) That drill he was doing in Surprise — catching balls out of a pitching machine with a tiny glove — is paying off. He snagged two line drives in this game, and afterward he told me the drill made him concentrate on the angle of the glove when the ball arrived. (Hey. There’s not a lot of good news to tell, but it’s something.)
Setting an example
It’s early afternoon and I’m leaning on the dugout rail, staring at an empty baseball field. Ned Yost appears beside me. He’s come out to check the weather and we begin to talk about this losing streak. I wanted to know the worst streak he’d ever been in and what got that team out of it. Ned couldn’t remember the streak, but he said generally a big hit is what ends them. One of those line-outs or double play balls we’ve been seeing finds grass and the pressure is off. Life gets back to normal.
A slump like this has people speaking in clichés like, “That’s baseball,” but clichés survive because there’s some truth in them. Ned says growth requires adversity and this is a chance for these young players to grow — they’ve fallen on their face, something they haven’t experienced at this level — and now they have to figure out how to get back up.
Even though some fans would like to see emotion — helmet throwing, water-cooler smashing — Ned says that doesn’t work, it just makes things worse. “If I get crazy,it gets crazy.” He learned that managing in Milwaukee. It might make him feel better to indulge his frustration, but it won’t make the team better. Part of his job is to project a sense of calm. When the ship’s taking on water, nobody wants to see the captain coming apart at the seams.
Ned Yost needs these kids to figure out how to take a 9th-inning, game-on-the-line-trying-to-end-a-losing-streak at-bat the same way they take a spring training at-bat: find the right level of intensity and stay there.
And Ned Yost needs to lead by example.
And you didn’t think Jason Kendall was funny
He walked by and said, “Look on the bright side, every team goes through a couple losing streaks — we’ve already got one of them out of the way.”
Royals Ned Yost on getting the team through the losing streak
Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost comments, before Monday's 4-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, on how the team needs to learn and respond to the losing streak . 2/23/12
Moustakas
Hosmer
Escobar
Danny Alvord
1 year, 1 month agoIt’s not like they are being blown out every night. They are loosing 1-2 run games. Things will get better. To quote the SKC chant: I believe that we will win.
Jason Ray
1 year, 1 month agoI just checked out the power rankings on SI.com, and I started at the bottom to see what they had to say about the Royals, but couldn’t find them. Turns out I was looking in the wrong place. They have them ranked 7th! Their rankings are by Wins Above Replacement, and their formula has the Royals getting extremely unlucky.
Just thought I’d share that, for what it’s worth.
Jack Irvine
1 year, 1 month agoI used to smoke. But I never put it in more than one end of my body. It’s time to tell the truth about this team and the Glass family that is laughing up their sleeves at the suckers in Kansas City. Or, are you afraid they will “Frank White” you for telling the truth?
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month agoLee -
With a quick google search I found this study which looked at a very similar question to the one you asked yesterday about how players hit with a base stealer on first. This one asked: do teams that steal a lot have a bigger improvement in their hitting statistics with a runner on first than teams that don’t steal very much?
It looks at all the plays from 1982-1992 for the top 10 team-seasons in base stealing (avg: 240 steals per year) and the bottom 10 team seasons in base stealing (avg: 40 steals per year) and compares hitting with a man on first to hitting with no men on.
The top ten base stealing teams improved by: AVG +.025 SLG +.030 OBP +.008 OPS +.038
The bottom ten base stealing teams improved by: AVG +.019 SLG +.028 OBP +.011 OPS +.039
Obviously having a runner on gives the offense several advantages because the pitcher has to pitch from the stretch and keep an eye on the runner, and there’s a bigger hole on the right side of the infield. But this study suggests that the size of that advantage doesn’t depend on how likely the runners are to steal.
http://cyrilmorong.com/Havoc.htm
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoLee you can add one more reason for this losing streak. Last night I had a group setting by me that was convinced the reason for the streak is we started the home stand on Friday the 13th.
Tracy Anderson May
1 year, 1 month agoLarry - that’s excellent!
Greg Tatro
1 year, 1 month agoThe Phillies who have 3 aces in their rotation 7-10…and in last place.
The Angels who have 3 aces in their rotation and Albert Pujols…6-10 and in last place.
Boston who has 176 million in payroll and gave up a 9 run lead Saturday…5-10 and in last place.
Now this might not make Royals fans feel any better but teams that are considered playoff contenders are struggling in April too.
Brian Grant
1 year, 1 month agoSisson and fundamentals. That’s all we hear…I wonder if that’s all the Royals hear too? There is such a thing as over-complicating one’s work. Chris Getz was thinking about the potential angle of the throw from the fielder as he was running to first? On the surface that sounds like a good thing, but is it? Baseball, at it’s core, is simple: Pitch the ball. Hit the ball. Catch the ball. The great players worked hard, yes, but at game time….these things came naturally to them. A ground ball? Scoop it and throw. A mistake curve ball? Hit it 400 feet. Two on, two outs, late innings? Fastball at the knees, outside corner.
If these Royals are really as talented and baseball savvy as you’d have us believe…then they should do all their work before the game, but then once the game starts…their instincts and talent need to be able to take over.
Perhaps you break losing streaks by becoming DUMBER, not smarter.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 1 month agoI am fine with aggressiveness on the basepaths but I take that is aggressive with secondary leads, and leadoffs that make the pitcher look longer at you. I take aggressiveness as going 1st to 3rd on a single and 1st to home on a dbl. Tagging up on 2nd on a fly ball to right-center or right field to get 90 feet closer. However, I do not feel it is smart aggressive baserunning to give your team a bunch of stats that say this pitcher is 1.whatever seconds to the plate and their catcher is 2.whatever seconds to 2nd base and letting the players decide when to go. The coaches need to decide when to go and let them go. You can be aggressive without even stealing bases. I am not saying that you should never steal a base but you can do a lot by just making the other team THINK you MIGHT be going on that next pitch.
I don’t feel like the team is listening to Seitzer much. I lived in Phoenix when he was the hitting coach for another young team that was loaded with young players and they performed very similar to what this group of players has done. I don’t know if many of you remember that DBacks team but they were considered, much like the Royals now, the greatest collection of young talent that Baseball America had ever seen up to that point. Well, late in the season before their first Opening Day experience they did what this team did last season, tore the cover off the ball. Then they came in the next season and stunk it up. Could not hit with RISP. Hit into dbl plays, etc. etc. By midseason Seitzer was fired and they brought in someone else. I am not saying Seitzer needs to be fired. What I am saying is that as someone who has been a manager of ppl there are times when you have to adjust how your message is being delivered b/c it is human nature to tune out the same message that is repeated to you over and over again, even if you believe in that message. Maybe it is time for the managers to shake up the delivery of their message a little bit. Just a thought.
One final thing. I love cnnsi.com. I think their writing staff is top notch. I checked out the MLB Power Rankings on the website and I was SHOCKED to see what team was #7. This provides a ray of hope for the rest of the season b/c they don’t do their MLB Rankings like they do their rankings for other sports. They use WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as their guide. Check it out. It is interesting. http://cnnsi.com/2012/baseball/mlb/04/23/mlb.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hpt13a0
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoDanny: That’s what people are holding onto—they’re not getting blown out, they’re close. But as Sisson pointed out, losing eight game in a row by one run is still a lousy losing streak.
They just don’t have much margin for error. If you’ve got a lot of talent you can cover mistakes be hitting three-run home runs. The Royals have to play clean baseball to have a chance.
(By the way: I know you guys get to hear a lot from Doug Sisson, but that’s because I get to hear a lot from Doug Sisson. He’s a beauty. We’re both “dirt-rats”—the best version of “gym-rats” we could come up—so we’re both out on the field early. We sit in the dugout and talk baseball almost every day. I always think how much you guys would love to be there and listen to this baseball lifer. So I try to do the next best thing—bring what he tells me back here.)
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJason: I think luck is part of it—I’ve seen an incredibly number of hot shots at people on this home stand—but luck is not all of it.
They’ve got to control what they can control. Throwing strikes and not walking people is at the top of the list.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJack: I think you’ve got an out-dated view of the Glass family. There was a time you were exactly right—they were running the team like Wal-Mart and taking home the profits.
They weren’t filling positions, they were offering paltry signing bonuses to low-draft picks and if any player was worth anything, they found a way to cash in.
That all changed with Dayton Moore’s arrival. (I’m guessing he wasn’t going to come here unless things changed.) Basically, the Glass family began to spend money. Bubba Starling, Alcides Escobar, Jeff Francoeur, Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon all got paid.
This stuff has been reported in numerous places, but people keep saying they’re cheap. They were—they’re not now.
But if fans do something dumb like boycott the team—apparently that’s been suggested—maybe we can convince the Glass family that spending money really doesn’t make any difference. We’re not going to appreciate them no matter what they do.
We can still screw this up with a lot of misinformed whining.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoBrian, I agree that players need to use their talents and instincts when the game actually starts, but the way they develop both of those is to constantly reinforce the basics so they in fact become second nature. That’s what constantly reviewing the fundamentals does. Lee is right in identifying fundamentals like throwing strikes and not walking people is a key. If you don’t believe it, go back to the game reviews and look at how many key opposition runs scored because we failed to do that.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBrendan: Thank you, interesting stuff. The Royals have two guys doing quantitative research and analysis and I’m just getting to know them.
Our relationship is still at the point where I need to gain their trust. That’s how it works around here—can they tell me the truth and trust that I’ll use it in the right way?
Hell, it’s my third year and Ned is just starting to talk openly. The research guys are doing top-secret, need-to-know kind of stuff—and what I’ve heard already has been fascinating. I wonder what they think about the stolen base.
Good question to ask down the road.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoLarry: You know, I thought of that on Friday the 13th—hey, what could go wrong?—but hadn’t thought of it since.
Good to knbow it’s all the schedule-maker’s fault.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoGreg: Excellent job making Doug Sisson’s point. No matter how much you spend or how you have, executing the fundamentals is mandatory.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBrian: Fair point and one of Sisson’s saying is, “The more information you give them, the less athletic they become.”
Being an exception to that rule is one of the reasons Chris Getz is more highly respected inside the clubhouse than out.
Some players might not be able to tell you who was in right field, much less whether he was right or left-handed. As Joel pointed out, the really smart guys let it register, then forget it.
When I started coaching third base it was a bewildering array of facts that I had to process quickly and I wasn’t doing that very well. Clint Hurdle told me don’t worry, keep working at it and it will come.
He was right. I’d make a split-second decision, then have to go back and figure out how I knew all the stuff I seemed to know when I needed it.
That only comes with experience. At some point before it happened, it proabbly registered in Chris’ mind that he could be aggressive on a ball down the right field line. He stuck it in the back of his mind and it was there when he needed it.
The only way that stuff happens is if you “pre-decide” what you’re going to do in certain situations.
Non-baseball players have been ridiculing the importance of practicing right and I’m sure they’d ridicule the importance of paying attention in the dugout. But the guys who are staring at the field and thinking give you a better chance of success than the guys who are playing grab-ass.
Ballplayers should know whether the outfielders are right or left-handed and where they can be aggressive and where they need to back off before they finish the Star-Spangled Banner.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoDarral: I got to talk to Ned specifically about their stolen base philosophy. The Royals have a “no-go” or “must-go” sign and Ned says he hasn’t put on the “must-go” sign in a long time.
The players know the time they can beat. When they arrive at first base, Doug Sisson reminds them of the pitcher’s time (say 1.4) and the key (the first physical indication of which way the pitcher is going to throw the ball—this is gleaned from hours of video study).
Yost believes the players have a better idea of when to go than he does. They’re the ones out there and they’re the ones who know whether they like their footing, or if they’re picking up the key well or if they’re getting a good jump.
If he calls the steal then they go even if all those things are against them.
The Royals believe there’s nothing wrong with the philosophy and that it paid off last year. Right now—in an attempt to make something happen—some of the runners are going even though they have bad jumps or can’t read the keys.
So for now, the team response is to go over the philosophy once again: if we’re going to let you decide when to go, then you have to make good decisions. We’ll see if they stick with that approach.
And it’s good to know someone who knows their way around a calculator thought highly of this team as well.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month agoLast night’s game provided many opportunities to score runs but Kansas City couldn’t take advantage. I have never seen a team bunt as much as the Royals in the last 15 years. Ned Yost is taking small ball to new heights which is very concerning. I’m all for the bunt. It’s a great play to advance runners but timing is everything (unless you’re Brett Butler or Ichiro). Chris Getz is like a very poor man’s Brett Butler. I’m ok with him bunting because he’s a proven commodity in that area. But to see Mitch Maier bunt with a man on second and one out makes me scowl at my television cursing profanities that no person should utter.
Ned Yost knows more than me I keep telling myself. Ned sees something that I don’t. Because what I’m seeing is a perfect opportunity for Maier to try to hit something to the right side of the field and maybe knock in a run or at least move the runner over. There’s only one out and we’ve got a runner on second. Let’s get a rally going instead of sacrificing the rally for a single run. And if you’re going that route I would imagine the batter at the plate would hold your highest confidence that he can execute the bunt. Is Mitch Maier considered as good a bunter as Getz? Because if he’s not at least as good then I’m not sacrificing a guaranteed out without the same guarantee that I’m moving my runner from second to third. I’d rather have that batter swing away and try to get something BIG going.
I’m just a rambling idiot fan but I’m seeing a manager in full panic mode. Why so much bunting? I gotta think these guys can swing a bat.
Just to be clear I don’t knock Eric Hosmer for his bunt. Like previously stated, the bunt is a great play if executed at the right time.
Scott Spencer
1 year, 1 month agoWhat is the approach to taking pitches? Frenchy saw 35 in the series and he walked once. In fact in the game he walked he only saw 14. If he is going to be in a funk like swinging that early, should he be hitting 2nd or 5th like he has this season?
Cody Poell
1 year, 1 month agoLee- I was wondering why you think Ned left Getz in to hit in the 8th inning (I think it was the 8th). The reliever hadn’t given up a hit to a lefty all season and yuni was on the bench. I know it worked out but I wondered if you thought it had to do with an injury or something else
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBrian: Chris is the best bunter on the team, so if everybody has to bunt as well as he does, nobody else would ever bunt.
It may be just a difference in philosophy, but I would’ve been surprised if Mitch hadn’t bunted. He’s usually very good at it, the score was 1-1, it was the 5th inning and the Royals had five hits at that point.
The big inning just wasn’t happening. If Mitch had been successful, Pena would’ve scored and the Royals would’ve taken the lead with 12 outs to go. So I think risk versus reward was worth it.
Mitch was tring to do the “team first” thing—it was his call to bunt—and it didn’t work out. That’s the way things are going right now.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoScott: Frenchy is an emotional player, which he often makes work for him. I know he’s trying to lead on the field and do something big for his teammates.
Seitzer talks to these guys constantly, so I’m sure Jeff’s pitch selection is an issue.
At least last year, pitchers were trying to tempt Frenchy into going for a home run with pitches inside, but on his hands. If they missed low, he’d crush it.
Seitzer wanted him to focus up the middle and let home runs happen by accident. I’m sure this discussion continues.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoCody: Good question and I had the same thought. I should’ve asked Yost about it, because if it doesn’t work, he gets reemed for being a moron.
I told him I wanted to ask questions about moves that did work in the interest of fairness and he said, “I’ve been waiting for one of those days.”
All I can say is when they go against the book like that, every time I’ve asked why, there’s been a very good reason based on information not available to the public.
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month agoLee, that may be one of the weaknesses of this team - the lack of a beast that can get us one, two or three runs in one swing. These Royals have a half-dozen guys capable of hitting 20 homers a season, but most of them are going to be accidents. Saw Francoeur crush one on Sunday - I honestly don’t think he can hit a ball harder than that one - but the wind just beat it down like a cottonwood puff (to be fair, the wind did the same thing to a would-be homer by Arencibia). But for the most part, this team is going to have to bunch hits together to score runs. They’re quite capable of doing that, but it just isn’t happening right now.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJim: Exactly right, in my opinion. Both offensively and pitching-wise. They’ve got to play well as a team—no one guy is going to fix this.
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month agoAs for pitching, I think it’s improving, and I think it’s better than most people give them credit for.
We’ve got two pitchers - Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen - who throw strikes consistently and, with the exception of the first inning of the home opener, get outs consistently. The other three - Jonathan Sanchez, Luis Mendoza and Danny Duffy - burn a lot of pitches nibbling around the plate and issuing a lot of walks. That’s bad for pitch counts and it keeps runners on base.
“I felt like I made a lot of quality pitches that were fouled off today,” Duffy said after Sunday’s game. “And what can you do about that? You can’t try to make too good of a pitch.” That sounds like he’d rather throw a ball than make a pitch that’s too good, and that’s a problem, one that Sanchez, and lately Mendoza, seem to share. For one, pitchers need to be aggressive to be successful. For another, even the best batters in baseball only get hits about one-third of the time, so the odds are in the pitcher’s favor. Unless, as you pointed out Lee, a pitcher puts himself in the position of having to throw a fastball when the batter knows it, and that’s what happens when you pitch behind in the count.
Case in point: Last week Bartolo Colon pitched eight scoreless innings against the Angels last week. At one point, Colon threw 38 strikes in a row. His linescore for that stretch: four strikeouts, no walks, one hit (a double), and no runs.
Part of it, of course, is establishing a rhythm, and younger pitchers sometimes have difficulty with that - they fall behind in the count and start to outthink themselves; a guy gets on and they lose their focus. Pretty soon it’s first-and-third, and one run becomes three or four. Even when he’s pitching well (and he can be dominating at time), Duffy has trouble establishing a rhythm on the mound. That will come with experience, and experience is what you get just after you need it. The main thing is to trust your stuff, something pitching coach Dave Eiland has tried to emphasize, and all of our pitchers have good stuff.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoThe Royals are officially insane.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Baseball is a simple game. Score more runs than the other team. No statistic (or anything else for that matter, including “fundamentals” and “chemistry”) correlates better to runs scored than OBP. In fact, the correlation is excellent. Check out the order of finish by team for past years sorting on OBP and then on runs scored. Not surprising, if you THINK about it. Don’t make outs (at the plate OR on the bases) and runners have to start crossing home plate.
So what do the Royals do? They continue to walk less than average. They continue to lead the league in runners thrown out on the bases. They continue to purposesfully make outs trying to bunt men from second to third.
No doubt the players are pressing. But so are the coaches. Way TOO MUCH “small ball.” The coaches are thinking too muach about the wrong things and distracting the players. Don’t make outs on purpose or take unnecessary risks, let the players hit and a big inning will come.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoStressing the fundamentals? Like WHAT? Stealing, giving away outs by bunting a guy from 2nd to 3rd?
Maybe they should stress things like taking a freaking walk every once in a while.
Lee, you still havent answered why Dayton Moore decided to publicly criticise (again, I might add) Billy Butler for his hitting with RISP, seeing as how Billy has the highest avg w/RISP on the team and Francouer (exBrave, Dayton favorite) has the worst. Is that accountability?
How about Daytons constant “moving the goalposts” when it comes to winning? He goes for it in 2009. That doesn’t work. So now when it is painfully obviously just how far this team is from .500, much less competing, he now says it is 8-10 Processfor a team to be built. Oh really? Did the marketing department know that? I mean, it is Our Time, afterall. Or is Our Time another 8-10 years?
It would be nice for Dayton Moore to stand up and take accountability for his garbage signings and trades. I could list the names..Betancourt, Jacobs, Guillen, Freel, Gload, Bale, Davies, Hillman…..need I go on, Judge?
If this organization values accountability, as Lee clearly states by his condescending verbage in the above article, then why isn’t Dayton Moore accountable? Why cant he say “I screwed up”, like Yost (faults aside) does? Why does Moore keep moving the goalposts? Does he think we are stupid?
And Lee please don’t lecture me on the Royals employing 2 Ivy League Grads (in my best Judge Smails voice). If any serious statistical analysis is going on then Yuniesky Betancourt would not have been signed (twice) and the Royals wouldnt keep giving away outs on the bathpaths and by bunting guys from second to third. Oh, please inform Yost that we are not in the National League anymore. We don’t have a pitcher we need to bunt (although Getz comes close). Back on point, if the Royals do any statistical analysis, then Moore doesnt listen because the skills he values in players are very much anti-Sabremetric.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoFrom Royals Review. Certainly hits the mark:
That this team would be 50% homegrown by 2013/2014, and they may not be good by then too. One of the trademarks of the recent DM era is what some call “moving the goalposts”. Once we approached the 4th anniversary in 2010, the revelation that it takes 6 years was released. And the time table is now 6 to 8 years. So if we go by the start of the DM era, the 8th anniversary may be a team that could wind up as not being a winning team, but almost certainly will have the same cavalcade of excuses as previous Dayton Moore failures.
Brian Rose
1 year, 1 month agoTrue a lot of the games have been one or two run games, but were 3 or 4 run games going into the 9th inning… so not as close as score leads to believe. this teams could really use a solid veteran who knows how to relax and get a big hit when needed. the good news is all these guys will now get a chance to learn how to be that solid veteran
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month agoThe Red Sox are in last place, but they’re in last place averaging 35,000 fans a game. Yes, the Red Sox have a history and an up-side. These Royals have an up-side, too, but they play in front of 10,000.
So “they” need to do “something.” Fire someone? Okay, who? I think Ned Yost is the right manager for this team - he’s always coached kids up (see: Fielder, Prince; and Braun, Ryan). I think Dayton Moore has done a marvelous job of putting this team together, and there’s more talent where this group came from. Look at the job Seitzer has done with guys like Getz and Escobar, to say nothing of Alex Gordon and others. I don’t think we know enough about Dave Eiland to be able to pin this on him.
Do fans want to see the Royals make some trades? Make no mistake, right now this team is worth more parted out than it is staying together, but then we’ll spend the rest of the decade watching former Royals tear up the league while we deal with over-priced, aging talent at The K. Been there, done that, bought the t-shirt.
The hardest sell is that this team is different than the dreary procession of teams over the last decade or two. I believe it is, even if the standings don’t show it. The simple truth is, it’s harder to be for something than it is to be against it, and it’s riskier to believe in something than it is to mock it. Royals fans are strapped for emotional capital right now, and I get that. But I’m hanging onto my Royals stock, because I still think it’s going to go through the roof.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoJim, What makes you think Ned Yos is the right guy? Getting fired as manager with weeks left in a PLAYOFF run? Get real.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoGeorge: You complain that the Royals aren’t interested in advanced metrics and I point out that they employ two people who do nothing but—and that’s not good enough.
They haven’t reached the same conclusions you have, so they muct be worthless or nobody’s listening to them.
You say there’s no accountability and I point out the people that have lost their jobs and that’s not good enough—they haven’t fired the person you want fired.
I don’t think you’re interested in information, I think you’re interested in hating the Royals and Dayton Moore for not meeting your expectations.
Sorry, can’t help you with that.
This losing streak has brought out the worst in some people—adversity sometimes does that. The good news for you is that right now, you’re probably in the majority and there are many web sites that would agree with your point of view.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBrian: You make a good point—the good part about that is the team continuing to battle late in the games.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoI’ve been spending some time with the stat-guys the Royals employ and they have some very interesting things to say (some of which will make certain readers even more irritated than they are now).
I disagree about the small ball criticisms. This team was built to play small ball—not too many 30 home run hitters available, especially if they have to play in Kauffman Stadium—so they need to pitch and defend well to make this work. (The defend part is going OK, the pitch part is not.)
If you’ve been following what the Royals believe about the game returning to a speed game, now that PEDs have been eliminated—supposedly—you know they have a plan and hope to get out in front of the other teams.
OBP was undervalued, now it’s not. They have to find another way.
Unfortunately, when they get behind early they become a stagnant team—one of the reasons were seeing so many rally-killing double plays.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoLee, Please explain to me what advanced statistic-pick any of them- would lead anyone to signing Yuniesky Betancourt. Or Borugeous. Or Quintero. Or Getz. Or Mendoza.
Please enlighten me Lee. Its easy to just tell me to pack sand and find another website. Harder for you to actually disprove what I am saying.
The players Dayton Moore values are the exact opposite that Sabre-minded people value. Please point a nmae. One, Lee. Just one that Dayton Moore has signed. It aint Yuni. Its not Mike Jacobs……
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoSpeed doesnt mean much Lee, if it cant get on base…..
Daytons philosophy seems to be: 1) Find SPEED 2) ? 3)Steals and Buntz!
The problem is the 2, which is getting on base. Moore cant quite solve that one.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoSmall ball, Lee? It is the AMERICAN LEAGUE. The Year is 2012. Care to join us?
Giving away outs by bunting a guy from second to third is just dumb, regardless of how many super secret special stats guys the Royals supposedly employ.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoLee, The Blue Jays and Bautista hit 3 run Home Runs. That also works these days. It is even better than bunting.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month agoLee -
I know that you like the small ball approach, and I thought it was fun in the 80s when we had Willie Wilson, but I hope we can look more at whether it’s actually working.
There are more ways than 30-HR men to get runners home. We had the 4th best batting average and the 5th best slugging percentage in the American League last year. I think it’s reasonable whether it’s a better idea to let the hitters try to drive runners in with hits rather than trade outs for bases through sacrifice bunts and stolen bases. That’s why I wanted to explore the question of what success percentage we need. It sounds like you’re not interested in exploring that (or maybe just irritated with George)?
We had a good offense last year with more offense (Myers, Cain, Giovatella) waiting in the high minors. Our pitching was weak (12th out of 14 teams) with not as much help in the minors in the near term. Given that, why would the Royals choose to try to win with pitching and defense instead of big offensive innings. Can you expand on what the Royals have told you about that strategy?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBrendan (and George, I guess): Yes, I’m currently writing about what the metrics guys told me and I’ll post that shortly.
And I’m not uninterested in exploring what percentage of stolen bases makes sense, but I also think it’s complicated—what day against what pitcher with what score and who at the plate. I also think a lot of what makes it worthwhile is hard to measure.
There are people way more qualified than I am to address these issues and as I get to know these guys that’s an area I can explore.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoGeorge: I never told you to find another web site. In fact, I appreciate the page hits you’re giving me—every two minutes.
I’ve already addressed many of your questions in previous posts and going over the same points again seems useless. I think you’ve got your mind made up.
There will soon be a post about the guys doing research for the Royals and why they’re doing what they do. It will answer some of the questions you’re posing, but I suspect it won’t change your mind.
Jim Wilson
1 year, 1 month agoLee, OBP was undervalued and now it’s not? Now you’re borrowing MoneyBall language and applying it in a sloppy manner. OBP will ALWAYS be the most important batting stat, whether valued or not. It’s very easy to prove the correlation between it and runs scored. If you’re looking for inefficiencies in the free agent market, OBP may not be your ticket, but that doesn’t make it not important (or excuse picking up a OBP disaster like Yuni (who also can’t field)). But what we’re talking about right now is how to use our current stable of players. And the Royals clearly still undervalue OBP.
Speed is irrelevant without men on base. And you undervalue our hitters. We don’t have a speed team but we have several good hitters who hit balls hard into the gaps - the K’s version of a home run (the K is an above average park offensively). We hit an historical number of doubles last year. Let them hit — and stop making outs on purpose (bunting) or taking unnecessary risks (stealing) to move runners over 90 feet that are already in scoring position. Unlike many, I still like our team — we have a lot of potential talent. But our analytical approach to the game is decades behind most other teams and it shows in our historical W-L record. It’s a very small bit of good news that the Royals have hired two “stat-guys” (your words and, unfortunately, an indication of a lack of knowledge of the analytical side of the game) but we don’t know what DM has asked them to do, if they have a clue what they’re doing or, if they do, if DM or Yost will listen. Saying the Royals have hired a couple of “stats-guys” is like saying the Royals have hired a couple of scouts. Great! What’s their background and experience? Where are they going to scout? What are they looking for? How are they going to improve on the information the organization currently has? How will the information be used?
zack_delmont
1 year, 1 month agoLee, I’m beginning to have difficulty deciding which I enjoy more—your columns are your cynical retorts to criticism. You are a talent. As frustrated as I am with this team, I can’t shake them. I guess I bleed blue.
Keep up the good work. Good luck weathering the armchair QBs.
For the record, I don’t think the problems have anything to do with the owner, the GM or the Manager. It’s a small market team and limitations exist. End of story. Jose Bautista wasn’t always JOSE BAUTISTA. It takes time for team stars to become MLB STARS.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agolee you never answered my questions on Dayton constantly moving the goalposts and his criticism of Butler when Francouer is clearly worse. I am waiting on those answers.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoFor all the people upset with all the bunting right now I don’t think you would see so much if our team was hitting right now. With the inconsistency of our hitters right now a bunt to move a runner is a better bet than a strikeout of double play. This site is about discussing the play on the field not who should be the players. As Lee said there are lots of other sites that play that game.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoMy word it must be a heavy load for you George, being the only perfect person in the world. Or do you just expect everyone else to be perfect.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoLarry its a site about the Royals. Sorry if you only want to discuss the parts that you like. But I choose to discuss WHY we are losing.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month agoLee, I appreciate the snarkness at how often I post. Sorry, but I am passionate about the Royals. They should appreciate that someone still is.
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month agoJim W, it’s not that OBP and OPS are no longer significant, it’s just that everybody in the Western Hemisphere has read “Moneyball” and the price of OBP and OPS have gone up. Yes, they’re important, but you also have to look statistics in the context of your park. If you play in Fenway or Wrigley, OPS in the person of a power-hitting right-handed hitter can be a good investment. But in the expanse of The K, you won’t get the value for the money – 40 homers elsewhere dwindles to 25 or so here. The Mark Jacobs experiment was and abject failure, and the Juan Gonzalez experiment was even worse. We don’t want to – and don’t need to – go there again. We’re okay in the OBP department; we’re just not doing well (at all) with RISP. I completely agree, if you’ve got problems with RISP, you don’t need to be giving up outs by bunting. My only guess is that it’s an effort to try something – anything – to see if it will work.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month agoJim -
The K is a league average park for offense. It suppresses home runs but creates doubles and triples. A high OPS hitter should post a high OPS at the K, which is probably how the Royals posted the 5th highest OPS in the AL last year.
If the Royals are trying to design a team to suit their park, they should not short change slugging.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month agoLee -
I’m really looking forward to your piece on Jin Wong and the stat team. Where will you post it?
If you get a chance, I’d like to hear why Rodriguez held up Moustakas at third on Mitch’s double tonight. With two outs, Moose was going on contact, and the ball went all the way to the corner, and Duncan’s arm is only average. I didn’t see Moose stumble.
I can’t understand why they didn’t send him, especially in the context of aggressive base stealing and being willing to trade outs for bases.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month agoCorrection: the fielder was Choo (who has a better arm than Duncan), but I’ve watched the replays now, and Choo hadn’t even gotten to the ball when Rodriguez held Moose. I don’t understand what he was thinking.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoOK, got a couple minutes before I have to start writing, so here’s a couple responses:
George: There’s nothing wrong with commenting often—in fact I depend on it—or disagreeing with what’s presented here. I think this site has developed a certain level of expected civility, but sometimes I’m as much to blame as anyone.
I like to joke around with people and that can come across on the internet as being snotty or snarky. So if I expect the benfit of the doubt on that issue, I have to extend it: so let’s start over.
What I hope is unique about this web site is the chance to hear directly from the Royals themselves. Frankly, who gives a damn what I think of the stolen base? (Need to remember that.) It’s what the Royals think of the stolen base that matters.
That doesn’t mean they get a free pass: they tell me how they intend to play baseball and when they don’t play that way I point it out—which I’ll be doing shortly in tomorrow’s post.
Jim W: The stat guys (sorry if the term bothers you but quantitative research analysts is a mouthful) are Mike Groopman and John Williams. I’ve posted their names a couple times and said that I was going to write a piece about what they had to say a couple times—but don’t be too anxious, you probably won’t like it.
Jim K: You hit the nail on the head (at least according to John and Mike). OBP is still good, but it’s now expensive. Gotta find another way.
Brendan: The stat piece will be in the usual spot, but I want to make sure I’m understanding their arguments and presenting them fairly. And I agree with you about Eddie Rodriguez holding up Moose—at least until I hear a reason not to send him. I’ll be writing about that shortly.