Games: Detroit Tigers, April 18: Judging the Royals with Lee Judge

Games » Detroit Tigers

Apr18

Ned Yost makes a decision

The lead got away in the seventh inning. The Royals were up 3-2 when Tigers catcher Gerald Laird led off the top of the seventh with a single. Kelvin Herrera struck out Austin Jackson for the first out, then manager Ned Yost brought in left-handed reliever Jose Mijares to face left-handed hitter Brennan Boesch, who flew out to Alex Gordon. So far, so good.

Next, Miguel Cabrera singled to right field, and Laird went from first base to third. That put the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on first, but still no damage on the scoreboard. Prince Fielder, who bats left-handed, walked to the plate, and the Royals put on a shift. Three infielders, including shortstop Alcides Escobar, were on the right-field side of second base.

While Fielder was batting, Mijares threw a wild pitch. Laird scored, and Cabrera moved into second. First base was now open, so the Royals did not have to face Fielder. That was when Ned Yost said he got “stupid.” Instead of walking Fielder and bringing in Louis Coleman to face right-handed Delmon Young, Ned let Mijares pitch to Fielder. Fielder apparently will expand the strike zone in RBI situations, and Ned thought the Royals could get Fielder out by giving him the opportunity to chase a pitch.

Mijares threw a fastball low and away, which surprised me. I would have thought you would come in or throw something off-speed to get Fielder to pull the ball. But maybe Fielder tends to hook that pitch and pull weak grounders. I didn’t know, so at the postgame news conference I asked Ned whether Mijares had missed his spot or I had just seen good hitting — because Prince took that fastball away and sent it through the vacated hole at short.

At that point in the news conference Ned decided to take responsibility for the loss. Ned never really said what he thought of the Mijares’ pitch — which may have been part of the plan — and instead he shifted the focus to himself and the decision he made. I don’t know whether the game decision was actually stupid, but shifting the attention away from a group of players who are pretty down right now was definitely smart.

Game notes

• This makes three close losses in a row to the Tigers. They all go in the loss column, but the Royals are not getting blown out.

• Eric Hosmer hit the ball hard all night and had nothing to show for it — which is still a good sign. If Gordon — who’s showing signs of life — Eric Hosmer and Jeff Francoeur can get it going (Billy Butler’s already got it going), this team will look a lot different.

• The Royals are still pressing with runners in scoring position. Getting a good pitch to hit and then not trying to do too much with it is how clutch hits happen.

• Two runners — Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois — were on base in the bottom of the ninth inning when Alcides Escobar smoked the ball down the left-field line. Usually that goes for a double, and if Bourgeois had scored from first, game over. Unfortunately, the Tigers were in the “no doubles” defense with the first baseman and third baseman guarding the lines. Any ball that got past them would have gone directly to an outfielder and stayed a single. Miguel Cabrera caught the ball, stepped on third base and doubled up Escobar on first. Right now, these guys can’t buy a break.

• Once again, a walk scored and the Royals lost by one.

• Your eyes are not deceiving you when you look at the box score. Prince Fielder stole a base. I’m trying to clock pitchers’ delivery times — I don’t know how accurate I am — but according to my stopwatch, Jonathan Sanchez took 1.8 seconds on that delivery. That’s very slow to the plate. Apparently, the Tigers have stopwatches, too.

Quality time

If every Royals fan could spend an hour talking with general manager Dayton Moore, they would calm the heck down. Dayton was watching batting practice by himself, so I asked him what he was seeing. And off we went:

He sees which players take batting practice seriously and which players might goof around a bit. He understands blowing off steam, and if goofing around helps, so be it. But if that’s how you get ready, it’s a good idea to produce.

He pointed out how Alex Gordon was taking the correct route to the ball, even in BP.

He pointed out how seriously Chris Getz was taking his grounders and throws.

He saw good rhythm. The coaches were throwing strikes, which kept the hitters, the fielders and the coaches hitting fungos in a groove.

He doesn’t mind seeing someone with power load up on a pitch and drive one, but he doesn’t want to see people playing home-run derby. Line drives and balls hit the other way should be the main goal.

He wants to see players do things in practice the way they would in games. Apparently, that’s why it’s called practice.

The conversation also included topics besides batting practice:

Moore said he’s not surprised that a young team is struggling out of the gate. A lot of the Royals players had never gone through the excitement of a big league opening day.

I said it seemed as though some of the players were looking for the right level of intensity and had to learn how to maintain it. “Bingo,” Moore replied.

The Royals do not ignore advanced metrics. They have people on staff who provide them with numbers and those numbers are part of analyzing players. The Royals don’t rely solely on numbers, but the numbers may alert them to a player they would like to see up close.

Sometimes the numbers can be deceiving. The Royals might want a minor-league player to be aggressive at the plate in order to learn how to handle pitches in various parts of the strike zone. Outsiders might downgrade that player for having a low on-base percentage.

The conversation went on for a while and covered a lot of topics, but the main impression I walked away with was this: Dayton Moore is a very smart guy. There is always a danger when you get in proximity to someone with power and they let you see behind the curtain. It’s easy to get sucked in. But Dayton was not just painting a pretty picture. (Wow, that’s three metaphors in a row — hope you enjoyed them.)

I thought Moore was surprisingly candid and realistic about the team’s shortcomings. He didn’t sugarcoat what’s been going on. Moore said he thinks this is a young, talented group that is finding out what it takes to compete in the big leagues. “This is a bottom-line business,” he said. “Until we execute, we’ll lose.”

I’ve always heard it takes five to seven years for a general manager’s game plan to take shape at the major-league level. If the system is bad enough, it might be more like eight to 10 years. Moore has taken a lot of criticism while patiently waiting for this team to take shape.

After hearing what Moore had to say, it seems like we could be patient a few more weeks. I think this guy might know what he’s doing.

Comments

Jason Everett
1 year, 1 month ago

What else can you say to the last few paragraphs there other than, “Yup.”

They are young, they are talented, but they are also still relatively inexperienced.

That’s not to say they don’t know how to play ball, but that they haven’t all played together in the bigs against the types of teams and adversities that they are currently facing.

Give them time. Be patient. Don’t boo them when they have a bad night. Look at it from their side, it’s 162 game season, and they’ve played 12 games. There’s 150 to go and anything is possible.
Phil Schreck
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, I’ve been a Royals fan since 1970 when I saw my first game at Municipal Stadium and I’ve followed almost every game in one way or another since then. It seems like they did “the little things” so much better in the glory days of the mid-70s to mid-80s. Sure, they had a lot of talent but it seems they were also fundamentally more sound. Taking the extra base, stealing, getting runners in scoring position including the much-maligned sacrifice bunt. Am I crazy?
Brian Grant
1 year, 1 month ago

I’ve read and read and read this same line of thinking. Look at what the Royals are doing well. If only this had happened, if only that had happened, if only this guy had gotten a hit, if only this grounder had found a hole, if only that fielder had made the play…on and on. Close. So close. The winning is coming.

deeeeeep sigh

I’m a smart fan, so I know in my marrow these things are true. But my passion is powerful, and it’s ready to erupt. I can’t take this much longer. If it doesn’t happen soon, I’m scooping out my marrow, flushing it down the toilet, and letting my passion take over.

When that happens, the above is no longer the logical explanation for patience in the development of a young team, but is instead the “Mantra of a Loser”.

What I’m saying is…..i sure hope we win tomorrow. Please?
Kurt Vancil
1 year, 1 month ago

I am right there with you Brian. My brain knows its early in the season and that this team is more talented than it has shown, but I am on the verge of losing my patience. Being swept by the Tigers by only 4 runs actually not a terrible thing but adding that to being swept by the Tribe and blowing our last game against the A’s adds up to a lot of frustration.

We need a win. Badly. As much as the fans want a win I am sure the players and Yost want it more.

With that said - I would rather face this type of adversity in April rather than play .500 ball until July and then have a bad stretch and lose 7 or more games in a row. If this team can figure out early in the year how to deal with this disappointing streak than hopefully they wont let it happen again. This year or next, etc. If they were successful until July and then hit a slump it might be harder to get out of. I am totally speculating about this, but I think it would be harder to get out of a slump in mid-summer than early spring.
Tom Erickson
1 year, 1 month ago

Were not getting blown out. Yippie , Hurray,…..Who gives a crap. And who knows if Ned was deflecting the attention away from his players or not. The loss was his fault. Yea the players have to perform, but I don’t think the players have much faith in Ned. There all excuses and I’m tired of hearing them. Ned said this year is about winning, so be it. No gray area this year, just results. I am one ticked off fan. By the way I’m usually a big fan of your column, I make my twelve year old read it so he can learn a few things.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

The players know the bottom line is winning and nobody is more bummed out than they are. But they can see—with the exception of the Cleveland series—that they’ve been playing better than their record. Still not good enough, but they’re not playing awful baseball.

A few years ago I saw a Royals outfielder throw the ball backwards, another one climbed the fence and the ball landed behind him on the warning track, another hit the cutoff man in the back because he wasn’t looking.

They were pretty awful and now they’re better. That’s why I have faith, I can see them play better baseball. (They’re not up to the standards of the glory years, but they are improving.)

Remember what the people who know the team the best predicted—.500 or a little better. That would be an improvement and signal that the team is on the right track.

There’s no reason that still can’t happen.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month ago

Tom, I give a crap. Unlike you, I love the GAME and I’m happy to see the Royals beginning to play it the right way. The results will come if they continue this. I would love to know how you get the inside dope that the players don’t have much faith in Ned. I don’t want the losses any more than you do, but I’m not going to rant and rave about them unless I feel the players have “quit” trying their best. That is all you can ask of them.
Rick Crawford
1 year, 1 month ago

9 straight seasons with a 6 game losing streak before memorial day.. Some of the fans got over those, i guess we’ll have to get over this one, too.
Aaron Cooper
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, please don’t insult my intelligence. Eight to ten years? Be patient? This fanbase has been nothing but patient. Just because Dayton says it takes that long to “build an organization” doesn’t mean that’s actually true. Dayton Moore has been nothing short of a huge failure so far. The bad decisions he had made which have contributed to his failure are too long to even get into. Yeah, he drafted Eric Hosmer. That’s nice.

The Royals will start winning once Dayton is gone and someone that utilizes a solid mix of sabermetrics AND scouting is at the helm. Sorry guys, but you don’t win with bunting, intangibles, and grit. You win with having better talent. DM needs to stop focusing on getting “good guys” who know how to play the game “the right way” and focus on getting players that are good at baseball.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

I think there’s a significant difference between playing poorly and losing. I think Ned Yost believes the same thing and, fom his comments last night, so does Jim Leyland.

That’s what Ned means when he says “baseball people” can see it. Everybody knows the bottom line is winning and losing, but there’s a difference between playing poorly and beating yourself (the Cleveland series) and playing well, but losing (the Detroit series).

If it’s just win=good, loss=bad, these games could analyzed by 9-year olds. I hope this website provides insight into how and why the Royals win or lose—that seems worth knowing.

And from my perspective, Ned Yost hasn’t lost the players confidence. In fact, I think most people believe he’s the right kind of manager for this young team.

Putting his hand up and taking the blame last night doesn’t diminish him in the eyes of the players. They respect someone standing up and saying it’s my fault.
Aaron Cooper
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, I think you are too close to the organization now to be objective. I know you are now good pals with DM and Yost and Kendall, but just because you get along with them and they are nice to you doesn’t mean they are doing a good job. You don’t succeed in baseball by being a nice guy and fun to talk to. You succeed by being smarter than the other GMs and managers when it comes to making decisions about who to have on your roster and how to utilize them. DM and Yost have, so far, shown that they are significantly worse than their competition at both of those things.

I don’t know how much baseball you follow outside of the Royals, but you really should watch how other MLB teams do things. Watch the Rays sometime. They compete in the AL East with less resources, a much worse stadium, and a much worse fanbase. They do it with sabermetrics. They do it by being smarter. The Royals are 20 years behind the rest of baseball. That’s the story. Be patient? No thanks.
Tom Erickson
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, you can spin it any way you want but we don’t care if they play hard and play the game the right way. Yes those would be great qualities, but I want to see some results. Ned said it himself that this year is about winning. So he needs to back it up or they need to find someone who will.

Joel: I love the game also
Tom Erickson
1 year, 1 month ago

Joel: I love the game also as is evidence in my 4 hour road trip to KC last weakend to see three games and I sure and the heck didn’t see the game played the right way.
Aaron Cooper
1 year, 1 month ago

No, don’t worry Tom. I mean, the team looked good in batting practice…so everything is fine. I mean, when the Tigers took batting practice, I saw a couple of guys goofing around and working on their celebratory handshakes..so they are probably headed for 90 losses. I mean, Chris Getz was taking groundballs and focusing hard. That’s how you win!
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Aaron: I think you’re wrong on just about every count. The Royals were an organization trying to do things on the cheap until Dayton Moore’s arrival. That wasn’t working.

If you draft an 18-year old kid it used to take an average of seven years for him to arrive in the big leagues. That process has been shortened—owners like to see those bonus babies in the big leagues—and now players often have to spend a few year in the majors before they’re ready to compete at the big league level.

That’s how you get to the 5-7 year estimate which is pretty standard across baseball. I have heard that for years from numerous people who should know—that doesn’t just come from Dayton Moore. If the organization is rundown, if you have to find scouts to replace scouts that left and were not replaced earlier, the estimate stretches out.

I’ve been watching this team since 1981, so when I talk about patience, I’ve got some experience. Blaming Dayton Moore for the things that happened before he got here is illogical.

Since he’s been here, the minor leagues have been successful (look at last year’s records) and that has to happen before you’re going to be successful in the big leagues.

If you reread what I’ve written in the above post you’ll see the Royals are using a mix of sabermetrics and scouting.

I get that people are frustrated, but taking it on Dayton Moore isn’t the answer. Although you might take a shot at the marketing department—I think they built people’s expectations way too high.
Doug Crise
1 year, 1 month ago

One thing that I think is also a characteristic of “baseball people” - and we’re seeing this with Ned Yost - is that they have staggering amounts of patience.

The kind of patience competing in the longest season in pro sports tends to provide.

I speak rhetorically when I ask what, exactly, Yost should be doing other than exactly what he is doing. It is not September. A division lead is not being swallowed up by a slurry of beer, chicken and indifference. Talk to a Boston fan about the true art of hitting the panic switch.

[By the way, has anyone, ever, actually seen a physical “panic switch” in any context? Weird term.]

I agree a promising season can be lost in a sludgy start - no denying that. But I submit that this team is too talented and too optimistic to allow that to happen.

Any longtime Royals fan will tell you some seasons have started with a turgid sense of doom before the first pitch is thrown. Having Scott Elarton as your opening day starter can do that to you.

This isn’t that kind of club. It is young, yes, but it is frisky, talented and relentlessly upbeat. It is also helmed by a manager that has been in a not-unsubstantial number of rodeos and who knows that while April matters to the baseball-starved public, early returns rarely provide statistical varacity.

Never is it glamorous to say “let’s sit, ride it out and see what happens.” That’s part of what makes baseball men such unique figures in sports.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Aaron: I get accused of being too close to the team whenever people don’t like what I have to say. By that logic, the best analysis of the Kansas City Royals would be done by eskimos.

The question a reader should ask when deciding whether someone reporting on any organization is credible would be this: are they willing to criticize that organization?

Anyone who follows this web site knows I’m willing to be critical, even of people I like. Twice a year we run “Strengths and Limitations” an analysis of what I’ve seen so far and there’s something critical about every player.

Just about every post has something critical about someone because people do not play the game perfectly. Often it’s criticism you won’t read any place else, so if I was really covering for the team I wouldn’t have to tell you that Prince Fielder was able to steal a base because Jonathan Sanchez took 1.8 seconds to deliver the ball to home plate.

I can feel this thread deteriorating into rants about the Dayton Moore and the Royals. That’s fine, I guess, if that’s what you want to do—but it doesn’t help you understand what’s happened or what might be about to happen next.

If you want me to condemn a team just because they lost without regard to how they played, that’s not going to happen.

If you choose to ignore how they play and base your feelings on whether they won or lost that day, I can’t stop you. But I wouldn’t want to be in a foxhole with you.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Judge,

Aaron hit it right on- you are too close to the Royals management. Any team that says they value statistical analysis then continually goes out and acquires people that can’t get on base(including the low OBP posterchild, Yuni) does not value sabremetrics.

Of course Moore will say it takes 10 years- it buys him more time. This reeks of Carl Petersons 5 year plan. Say it takes five years then if it doesnt work say it takes 5 more!

Moore is a bad GM. No 2 ways about it. Not only does he acquire bad baseball players and managers (Yuni and Hillman, anyone?), but he insults the true fans of this organization by saying how dumb we are because we don’t believe in his “Process”. Well, guess what genius? You have had since 2006 and your team still sucks. I mean, for F sakes, Bruce Chen was the sarting pitcher on opening day. Chen is a fine 5th starter, but opening day? Really? In 6 years that is the best Dayton can do?
Aaron Cooper
1 year, 1 month ago

I read your whole article. Just because you and DM say the Royals are using sabermetrics doesn’t mean they actually are, or that they are properly using them. Acquring Yuniesky Betancourt, a player that can’t hit, can’t run, who routinely gives less than 100% effort (his reputation in both Seattle and Milwaukee, and easily observable here in KC) and whose range on defense is awful is not a move that sabermetrics would approve of. That is just one of too many examples during DM’s tenure. Guillen, Jacobs, Gload, Tony Pena Jr., Yuni twice, Farnsworth, and on and on and on. There is a reason that the “stats crowd” so routinely makes fun of Dayton Moore and the Royals.

I don’t blame DM for things that happened before he got here. Nobody is saying he should have fielded a playoff team by now…but saying it takes 8-10 years to truly build an organization is just ridiculous. It’s a lie made up by DM in order to keep some semblance of job security. In any other city in the majors, he’d be on the hot seat big time by now. In KC, not so much.

The fact that you tout minor league records as an example of DM’s success shows that you just don’t get it and are just buying whatever he tells you. Sure, they are nice, but they are more than negated by DM’s disastrous record of acquiring major league talent. There is no such thing as an entirely homegrown team. He must be smarter than other GMs when it comes to supplementing his homegrown players with outside talent. So far, he’s been a disaster in that area.

Take my advice Lee. Start paying attention to how the Rays operate. You’ll see an enormous difference. It didn’t take the Rays as long as DM says. It took Friedman four seasons to make the WORLD SERIES in a tougher division, with less money and less fans. He did it by making better decisions. Scouting and developing your own players is important, but there’s more to it.

Lee, a lot of what you write is fine, but you simply can’t rely on DM, Yost, and other Royals personnel for your baseball information. They are only giving you excuses for their failure. Look around the league Lee. Do it. You’ll see that what they are giving you just doesn’t fly.
Aaron Cooper
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, you do criticize the players when they make poor plays. I appreciate that. You do not subject Dayton Moore to that same criticism. I mean, you come on here, after another slow start, after the Royals haven’t been good in 20 years, and tell the fans that DM knows what he is doing and we should all just be patient because Chris Getz is taking groundballs seriuosly. I don’t know what kind of reaction you expected.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

I don’t have a huge problem with Dayton. The Jose Guillen signing was a predictable disaster, and I hate that he brought Betancourt back, but he’s done very good work with the minor leagues, so I’m willing to give him another year or so to show some Major League results.

But Lee, you’re not doing anyone favors by saying stuff like “If you draft an 18-year old kid it used to take an average of seven years for him to arrive in the big leagues.” That’s nonsense.

If a player drafted at 18 years old hasn’t been added to the 40-man MLB roster after five years, he can be taken by another team in the Rule Five draft. If he hasn’t been added to the 40-man roster after seven years (six and a half seasons from when he was drafted), he becomes a minor league free agent.

Under these rules, the player who takes seven years or longer to make the Major Leagues is very much the exception, not the average. Glancing back through the Baird era, I couldn’t find any who took that long.

I don’t know if Dayton told you that (although I’m sure he knows it’s not true) or if you made that up to defend him, but either way, it makes the case weaker.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Judge, You say you are so critical of the team, so please enlighten us on how well Yuni has been doing defensively. How many runs has he cost with his complete lack of range? How often does he have to loaf on the basepaths because he is “hurt”? By the way, if he is hobbled by an injury the why the heck is he playing?

Oh but I guess you will scold me on how well he is hitting in his 40 some PA’s this year, right? You will lecture me on how much his offense has helped this team in his 40 at-bats, while ignoring his over 3,600 AB’s where he is a proven out machine (.292 OBP, Sabre-Dayton!).

judge, your writing brings some interesting clues to the clubhouse and the players and I appreciate it. But your analysis of baseball is atrocious. Please stick with the fluff and quit insulting the real fans of this team and the game of baseball by saying Dayton Moore is so much smarter than us.

OBTW, will you PLEASE leave a copy of the book, Moneyball on Dayton’s desk. Ok, thanks.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 1 month ago

Even though three starts is a small sample size, I think a 2.00 ERA, 7:1 SO/BB ratio, a .833 WHIP and 3.56 xFIP is nothing to sneeze at. Those numbers represent better than a #5 pitcher, and those numbers also happen to represent Bruce Chen at the moment.
Derek Taylor
1 year, 1 month ago

And was anyone else more impressed with Billy going first to third on a single than Fielder stealing a base? Because I was…
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Derek, So 3 starts and we should ignore the other 172? ERA+ 0f 98 (respectable by KC standards), WHIP of 1.37 and ERA (thats for you, Judge)of 4.48?

Cmon Derek, dont buy into what you SEE. Look at everything. Chen is a fine 5th starter. My point, is no way 6 years after becoming GM, is Chen an accpetable staff Ace.
Sean Fite
1 year, 1 month ago

Anyone who can’t see the difference between this year’s Royals and the losing teams of the past, has no business, ZERO credibility to critique them now. The Cleveland series was disastrous, and they clearly got into our heads, but the offense was there. Now against Detroit, we faced excellent pitching. But, you know what? We also pitched great. Less walks are needed, but overall the starters had it. Quintero should have blocked that pitch in the 7th, and maybe we escape with a 1 run win.

That being said, I’m curious about the shifts against Cabrerra and Fielder that caused base hits from what should have been “routine” outs. Ryan Lefebre (sp?) defended it based on many years of spray chart data, but then when Fielder came to the plate for his last at-bat, we played him more straight up. Positioning is everything for the Royals and they have been very successful at this, so I’m not questioning their use of the shift. I’m just wondering if anyone has any insight on when/why it should be used?

Thanks, Lee, for continuing a great column.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Derek, I was less impressed with Yuni only getting to third the other night as he was loafing w/2 outs. Of course, that criticism won’t be found anywhere in the Star’s sports section.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Judge, Since you are so critical and all…..time Yuni from home to 1B sometime. Timed the other day Yuni took 4.84 seconds to get to first. Billy Butler? The guy people love to say is a lump…he took 4.5 seconds. What say you, Judge?

Heck, even fat offensive lineman in the NFL run a 4.84 in the 40 YARD dash!
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

“Chen is a fine 5th starter. My point, is no way 6 years after becoming GM, is Chen an accpetable staff Ace.”

George, Chen’s last three years, including this one, are well above 5th starter status, even given fangraphs bias against low K/9 and in favor of their bogus fips.

“ERA (thats for you, Judge)of 4.48?”

A consistent three runs in six innings is a quality starter. That’s a guy who keeps the team in games and gives a chance to win.

“I don’t know what kind of reaction you expected.”

Aaron, the expected reaction is likely the realization that GMDM has little day to day control over either Alex or Eric not even hitting their weights or Moose barely hitting last year’s weight. The team this year, on paper, looked good and still does, even after losing Perez and Cain. Pitchers are keeping the team in most games and the hitters look a little lost at the moment. What would you like GMDM to do, DFA Hosmer and Gordon?

As for Yuni in general, Giavotella is hitting .250 in Omaha according to last night’s box score on Pine Tar Press. Guess we could blame Dayton Moore for that. Some players just don’t work out, nature of the business.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Sean -

You’re right that, in general, this team is playing better than the pre-2011 teams, even if it’s not showing up in the win column.

However, I think you’re wrong that the Royals defensive positioning has generally been very successful. We’ve been one of the worst defensive teams in the majors for most of the last decade, and, even last year, when our defense was better, there was an outstanding study showing Eric Hosmer’s positioning at first was hurting us: PART 1: http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/11/3/2535279/why-does-uzr-hates-eric-hosmers-defense PART 2: http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/11/10/2538524/eric-hosmers-defense-part-2-positioning
Sean Fite
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendon, I wasn’t very clear explaining what was in my head. I was thinking “very successful” with regards to our outfield positioning last year, and should have said that. I could be wrong, but I think our positioning helped us overcome less raw speed. Obviously, it’s more frustrating when we’re losing, but both of those singles last night were “routine” ground balls, except we had a shift on. Give credit to the hitters for going opposite, but the hole at short during Fielder’s AB was larger than this belt size. And I realize if the ball was hit into the shift, then the Royals look brilliant for positioning “correctly”. That’s why I was looking for some insight from the many bright minds in this forum.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Jim -

Even on your terms (ERA), Chen hasn’t been a very good starter because a 4.48 ERA isn’t very good. In the steroid era, it might have given a team a decent chance, but those days are gone.

A 4.48 ERA would have ranked 105th in the majors last year among the 137 starting pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.

Even last year, when our offense was very good, we didn’t manage 4.5 runs per game, much less 4.5 earned runs. If our starters average a 4.5 ERA, we’re going to lose a ton of games.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendan, Master Chen’s ERA the last three years with the Royals, since he has perfected the reinvention of himself from a broken power-pitcher to a crafty lefty, have been 4.17, 3.77, and this year’s 2.00. 4.48 is a fairly meaningless number, as the current Bruce Chen has little in common with the young prospect beyond being left-handed. That is why weighting years is useful, most recent given the most weight.

“we didn’t manage 4.5 runs per game, much less 4.5 earned runs.”

4.506 RA, per my calculator. Gave up 4.703. And that was with Mazarro, O’Sullivan, and Kyle Davies. The thought for this year was that if starters could average 3 runs in 6 innings a bullpen that looked to be dominant, and may well yet be, would average 1 run in its 3 innings, which would put the Royals over .500. It’s early yet, but Chen has produced three very solid starts, Sanchez two good ones for him and a bad one, Hoch is 1-1 in quality, Duffy has been great, and Mendoza is 1-1 for good starts. I’ll be more ready to judge the staff after five starts, but if the starters can average three good starts out of five we’ll be a .500 team. Chen is performing well as #1 starter and even has made the 1st page of fangraphs’ pitching leaders. And his recent cutter even seems to be boosting his K/9, which will get him more love from fips.

But back to the central point, career stats tend to be worth little when substantive changes are made by a player. We saw that last year with the “worst outfield ever”, we see that with Chen over the last three seasons, we are seeing glimmers from Getz, we’ve seen 3 of 4 good starts from Mendoza since he was called up last year. Players can change, but aggregate and average career stats will take years to be able to show it.
Jon Worley
1 year, 1 month ago

From my vantage point here inside the Beltway, everyone I see has “Natitude.” The Nats are 10-3 and almost everything is breaking their way. The Royals are 3-9 and almost everything is not.

Most analysts put these teams on a relative par (Nats better pitching, Royals better hitting and fielding), with the Nats expected to win 80-85 games (slightly higher than professional expectations for the Royals). My feeling is that both of these starts will even out. 2003 began nicely for us, and then it ended with the Royals using more players as starting pitchers than any other team in history (if I recall correctly).

Patience is what allows a fan to ride the highs and lows without developing a drinking problem (or,as in my case, reserve the drinking problem for somewhat weightier matters).

To quote from the Book of Bull Durham: What we need is a rainout.

Maybe the day off will suffice.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Sean -

I think the defensive statistics generally agree that our outfield was a bit below average in getting to balls in the air but was way above average in denying extra bases (early on by throwing out runners who tried to advance and later by fewer runners even trying) so that our outfield overall was above average defensively.

I haven’t seen any studies on our outfield positioning, but I think you’re certainly right that we were working at a speed disadvantage with Melky in center last year.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago
If you have a chance to ask Ned some questions, here are ones I’d have for him:
- Why bring in Mijares to face Boesch (who hits LHP better) and Cabrera (who hits LHP better)?
- Why not pinch run Getz for Yuni and then pinch run Getz for Butler? Yuni represented the tying run, and he plays the same position as Getz, and he’s been timed slower on the bases than Billy since the ankle injury. Butler is our best hitter.
- Why keep PHing Bourgeois for Maier against LHPs? When he plays, Maier is, by far, the best hitter in the bottom half of the order against LHP, yet Yost has twice PH for him against LHP.
- If Yuni is not healthy enough to be a pinch runner (as was reported earlier this week), why are we order a double steal with him on base?
- More generally on base stealing, what success rate does Ned think we need to achieve for this aggressiveness to be worth it? Studies show 72%, but, excluding Dyson, we didn’t achiever that last year, and we’re worse this year. What sign would tell Ned we’re being too aggressive and actually hurting ourselves?
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Jim, If you are happy with Chen as your staff ace, then there is probably no way forward with a conversation with you. You will be a sunshine pumper come Hell or high water. Either way, I simply have zero faith in any management who looks at Yuniesky Betancourt and sees a good player, as Dayton and Yost clearly do.

Bottomline, Jim, is that Dayton Moore does not place a priority on players who avoid making outs. He consistently goes out and acquires low-OBP type players and everyone wonders why the Royals are consistent losers. They are losers because they cant take a pitch. Therefore starters go deeper into games, opposing bullpens are used less and they swing at crap pitches. This is evidenced by this years team OBP of .301.

Dayton acquires players who posess the skills he covets. Unfortunately, this is not 1977 anymore so his way isnt/aint/cant/and wont work. Too many smart GMs like Friedman out there for a relic like Moore to suceed.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Jim, are you really wanking about Giavotella’s stats in Omaha this year? In 61 At-Bats?

So I guess you are convienently leaving out his 338 /.390 /.481 /.871 slash last year in AAA….in FIVE HUNDRED AND THREE At-bats!

Nice cherry picking Jim. Try again. Giavotella has performed well enough that he should be starting at 2B. What the heck has Yuni EVER done to win that job? Other than be a prolific out machine….
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendan, Those are all great questions. I mentioned in my comment in yesterdays post that Yost relies TOO MUCH on lefty/righty matchups when making the lineup AND when PHing. Sometimes you just got let professional hitters bat against professional pitchers. I was thinking the same thing about Getz too. The most important run is the tying run. It was almost as if he was saying that it was a foregone conclusion that Yuni was going to score so why pinch run for him.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 1 month ago

George, are you really wanking about Chen’s stats? from 4 years ago??

Sean, Lay off the negativity of Lee. He is perfectly qualified to write this column and provide a day to day breakdown. He is also more qualified then you it looks like to dissect the Royals performance this season and last season compared to some of the TERRIBLE teams they have trotted out there in the past, say 15 yrs or so.

Obviously you aren’t seeing the improved play. The issues are more about what you mentioned in the 2nd part of your rant above. The decision making of the manager. The shift to me is just silly. It is all the rage right now b/c Joe Madden uses it A LOT. The problem with the shift, as Lee pointed out above, is that it depends so much on the pitchers executing the right pitch in the right location, basically forcing the batter to take what he gets and hit into the shift. This is the part that is failing. My question is, why keep doing it if you don’t know with virtual certainty the pitcher can execute the pitch. Further, the questionable bullpen moves and the almost obsessive leaning on lefty/righty matchup theories is driving me crazy!! What is also driving me crazy is all of the negativity towards Lee.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Darral,

managers will make poor in-game decisions. It happens. But where Yost really hurts this team is by putting outmachines like Betancourt hitting in the 2-hole. Yost is telling us that he wants career .290 OBP Yuni Crappencourt to get more at-bats then Hosmer, Billy or Gordon? Wow.

Of course it would be easier if Moore didnt saddle Yost with such terrible players like Yuni and Getz. It would be nice to see Butler hitting second, but since Moore and Yost are baseball people through and through- and this is evidently 1977- then this will never happen.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Darral, no offense but if Lee writes a garbage article, then he leaves himself open to criticism. I am assuming he is also a fan of the First Amendment, where people are allowed to speak freely, even if it doesnt suit YOUR point of view.

Frankly, I am insulted by the tone Lee wrote this article, acting as if we are all just dumb sheep that can’t understand the brilliance of Moore. Bottomline, playing the game the right way is a weak way of saying that this team sucks.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Mark,

Great points. 100% spot-on. Wouldn’t it be nice if the KC media had the balls to actually call Glass, Moore and the rest of these clowns out on this? Of course they wont.
Aaron Cooper
1 year, 1 month ago

At the end of the day, it comes down to this: Dayton Moore knows more about baseball than every single person who has commented on this article, and the author of the article himself. Fine.

However, it isn’t Dayton’s job to know more about baseball than us. It is his job to know more about and beat the other 29 GMs in baseball. It is beyond obvious he is well, WELL behind most of them when it comes to evaluating and utilizing major league talent. That is why we criticize. The “hey guys, I talked to DM and he’s smarter than me, so he must be right for the job” crap is ridiculous and, again, is a huge insult to our intelligence. Writing an article that ends with telling your readers that they need to “calm the heck down” because they just don’t understand is going to get a negative reaction everytime.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 1 month ago

George, Your interpretation, I believe, of today’s post is based off the fact that you are not a frequent reader of this blog.

Also, Butler is not the ideal #2 hitter either. Gordon is actually a more ideal #2 hitter on a championship team. Given his balance of pretty good pop, ability to get on base and the ability to steal an occasional base. A #2 hitter on a championship team based on the past 10 WS winners is like a .280 avg, 18 hrs and 80+ rbis with 90+ runs scored. Butler is the perfect #3 hitter. Frenchy should be batting 4th and Hosmer 5th. What the team is really missing is another player like Gordon who can bat leadoff. I think that Escobar is actually interesting at leadoff if he could learn better pitch selection to raise his OB%. However, they really just need another player with Gordon’s skill set to play leadoff. They don’t have that. Gio is not that answer at #2 either as he grades out at the major league level to be about a .250 hitter, maybe 10-14 hrs, 60+rbis and 60+ runs scored. The reason why he is not in the majors is b/c he doesn’t even make the routine plays at short and has “hard hands”. A great example of “soft hands” is a play Hosmer made last night on a one hopper to him. It was hit hard right at him near the line and he absorbed the one hopper with his whole body, not just his glove and the ball shot right up softly to his eye level where he caught it easily with his glove and ran to 1st. If that same ball is hit to Gio at 2nd he boots it.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 1 month ago

George, for you to quote the first Amendment is a joke. Not only did Lee not tell you not to be negative he encourages the questioning. I just don’t think it is healthy to question someone’s integrity personally. Which is what I feel like you have done today. Which is also why I have been defending Lee today. I don’t think I even told you not to express your thoughts. I just said that the blatant negativity directed at Lee is driving me crazy. One of the things I have enjoyed about this blog is it is relatively free of attacking posts at the author and the fellow commentators. However, today it has been very negative towards Lee. I don’t know him personally but I know his writing and his style pretty well. I have been reading this blog daily for two seasons now.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

“Giavotella has performed well enough that he should be starting at 2B.”

Giavotellqa, hurt, didn’t do well last year in the majors and didn’t do well after his surgery this year in spring training and isn’t doing well in Omaha. That tells me that he is probably not fully recovered from his hip injury, so is no threat to be called up until he is healed and productive again.

“Who, exactly, put the Royals franchise into this mess in the FIRST PLACE?”

Ewing Kaufman when he sold the farm and kicked off the free agent wars in an effort to get one more championship, then left a difficult transition to new ownership with the foundation requirements.

“Why keep PHing Bourgeois for Maier against LHPs?”

Serious split differences, both career and last year. Bourgeois hits lefties about 70 points better than Mitch and is a superior defender.

“Yost is telling us that he wants career .290 OBP”

Careers don’t take the field in real baseball, maybe they do in some fantasy leagues, wouldn’t know.

“Writing an article that ends with telling your readers that they need to “calm the heck down” because they just don’t understand is going to get a negative reaction everytime.”

From some, maybe, but most of the regulars here agree. So are you criticizing signing Gordon’s extension, because he looks bad right now. Maybe you’re criticizing Hosmer being the majors so young? Or Moose? Or is this just a little Yuni hate because hating Frenchy, Melky, and Chen didn’t work so well? GMDM makes some moves I don’t agree with, but given what he inherited and the talent he has acquired and developed under the financial constraints of a small market, I think he’s done a solid job and will probably continue to improve.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Everybody: Sorry about my prolonged absence from the site today, sometimes they want me to do my day job.

I’ve read all the comments so far and here’s what I have to say: My goal is to bring the point of view of players, coaches and, in this morning’s instance, management to this site.

Every once in a while, by presenting the views of these people, I upset a certain segment of baseball fans—the information presented does not fit their world view and they let me know.

As Doug Sisson said about the crowd’s reaction on opening day, “Thank God they care enough to show up and boo us.”

So thank for caring enough to show up and boo me. But…

Many fans and members of the media who were so positive eight games ago are now in full panic mode. The plane has hit an air pocket and a lot of passengers are running up and down screaming “we’re all going to die” and getting mad at anyone that declines to join the panic.

I chose to write what I did about Dayton Moore for that very reason. He gave me a lot of information which convinced me that he knew exactly what he was doing and why. It wasn’t all positive information, but it made me think he’s got a much more realistic assessment of this team than many people who are yelling and screaming right now.

The Royals have a lot of information they don’t share with the public. Once in a while they share some with members of the media.

They have all the information the public has and more. They know things that can change a matchup on one night only. They might hear about a player’s night out and change the way he’s pitched the next day. Every time I’ve asked about a situation, they not only knew what I knew, but three other things besides.

It doesn’t seem likely that someone who has read a book or looks at a website knows more than the professionals who have actually done it for a living. Yuniesky Betancourt has a bad zone rating—you don’t think they know that? You don’t think it’s possible that they took that into account, but found other information that offset a negative? You don’t think it’s possible they know something you don’t? Hell, they better.

And let’s not even get started on money. Lots of fans are great at spending imaginary dollars Dayton Moore does not have at his disposal. Not to mention the imaginary perfect players he ought to find to replace these flawed real ones.

That doesn’t make him or any other baseball professional perfect, they miss on players (everybody does) and sometimes strategy doesn’t work out. That happens to everybody, too.

But I’ve noticed when someone doesn’t like a player, all they talk about are his negatives. When they’re a fan, all they talk about are his positives. The real world doesn’t work that way; everybody’s a combination of strengths and weaknesses. Assessing how those balance out is what these guys do.

I don’t believe the Royals are on the right track because Dayton Moore told me so, I believe they’re better because I can see it. I’ve followed this team since 1981 as a fan and watched almost every pitch of every game since 2010. I spent two weeks on the practice fields of Surprise, Arizona watching them prepare.

I’m not predicting the World Series or the playoffs. I think a .500 record is still reasonable. And that would represent progress.

OK, I don’t really expect what I just said to change anybody’s mind, but that’s what think.

I’m going home to get a half day off. I won’t get another for 21 days. I won’t get a full day off until November.

Have fun, I’ll post something new tomorrow night.
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month ago

Today may be the most important date on the Kansas City Royals’ schedule so far this year.

Yes, I know, it’s an open date. And these Royals need one. I hope they enjoy it. Lee, I hope you enjoy your half-day off, too.

Kansas City is struggling. The team has lost seven straight games, in a variety of ways. They’ve lost slugfests and shutouts, close games and laughers, the starters have bombed, the bullpen has failed. The Royals have figured out lots of ways to lose, but not how to win.

So now they are pressing, trying to do too much, as if that would undo the past week. They’re out of sync, and an open date is often the best way to fix that.

Extra practice? No, that’s the last thing they need.

Go fishing. Shoot some hoops. Go on a shopping spree. Take in a movie. Play golf. In short, do anything but go to The K.

Quite honestly, this week-long swoon embodies the kind of growing pains that the Royals had every right to expect this season. There are going to be times when things go right, like the two wins at Anaheim. There are also going to be times when things go very wrong, and we’re seeing that now.

Good teams, mature teams, have figured out how to perform consistently at a high level. Included in that is the ability to dismiss bad outings - or even a series of bad outings - as aberrations, to leave them behind and keep moving. Short-term memory loss can be a good thing (until you get to be my age, then it’s quite another matter).

It’s a mindset, really, the ability to realize that a bad game isn’t necessarily anyone’s fault or a problem that needs to be fixed. Certainly there are on-the-field lessons to be learned, mechanics to be corrected, fundamentals to be reinforced. But when you add frustration and anxiety into the mix, a team can do little to move forward until it takes a step back.

The Old School approach was more simplistic: Bear down. Anyone who thinks the Royals aren’t bearing down hasn’t seen Eric Hosmer’s swing lately. Any more bearing down will make things worse, not better.

And that goes for Ned Yost, too. Lineup changes right now could be viewed as panic moves, or worse, as a punishment. Neither is constructive. This is a learning process for the Kansas City manager, too, understanding how each of his players responds in given situations so he can make the right decisions in the future. Managers tend to trust their gut, but those gut feelings are built on what their brain has acquired through experience. Yost doesn’t have much of an archive to draw on because his players are young, even if he isn’t.

My greatest fear is that the Royals front office may feel it has to enter the fray and take some action, either via a trade or firing Yost. Bad idea. Remember, baseball experts - managers, scouts, coaches, general managers and analysts - almost unanimously have said the best team they’ve seen during the last two spring trainings is the 2013 Kansas City Royals. I checked my calendar and it still says this is 2012. Much as I want to see how good this team can be, I know it can only get there by building a foundation now.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month ago

The attacks on this site of the GM and Lee are uncalled for. This site is not designed for that. If you want to be rabid, there are plenty of other places you can vent. Just because you have a computer, a key board, and a big mouth does not make you an expert. What most of us who regularly follow this site are interested in is an analysis of baseball plays and the game itself. For instance, there is a lot of Yuni bashing for his running, but conveniently overlooking of the fact that he is right now running on gimpy ankle. The injury is a fact, not a supposition and should temper our current expectations for him. The old baseball adage that the game gets easier each step you take away from the field applies to all of the loud-mouth pretenders whose only accomplishments can be found in the FANTASY world.
Sean Fite
1 year, 1 month ago

Darral -

Go back and recheck the posters. I’m a Lee supporter, and have been a supporter of this blog ever since it started. You have my post confused with someone else.
Sean Fite
1 year, 1 month ago

Oh crap! I see now what you mean. What I was trying to say was that there IS a difference between the Royals now even though the record doesn’t show it. And those of you who can’t see the difference (that the Royals ARE improved) have no business critiquing, especially on this site. I wasn’t aiming those comments at Lee, but at the others writing nonsense regarding Moore, Yost, the “same ol’ Royals”, etc.

Sorry for the cloudy writing as my fingers obviously weren’t keeping up with my thoughts. But you will see that I thanked Lee for a great column, so that should have been your clue that I wasn’t Lee bashing.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

Very good post, Jim.

Putting together a ball club is little different than starting a machine shop or construction crew, you try to get the best young guys you can with upside and get them working together as a team and being productive and efficient. It’s not nearly as easy as career wage slaves might imagine it to be. And sometimes you just have bad weeks, good guys performing poorly for no good reason. Just the breaks, move on past it and trust the talent.

As for firing Ned Yost, which some “fans” have been calling for since the day he was hired, I’m not worried too much. GMDM doesn’t strike me as a panicky sort and his background is in an organization that treasured stability. Only folks panicking are the ones who never bought into any part of the new team in the first place.
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

Bourgeois is about 4 (if you use wOBA) to 6 (if you use OPS) percent better against LHP than Maier. Every study I’ve seen on pinch hitting says that a batter will perform around ten percent worse as a pinch hitter than he would as a starter. The advantage Bourgeois has over Maier agaisnt LHP is too small for pinch hitting to be a good decision.

Making it even more maddening is that Bourgeois is enough better than Betancourt, Escobar, Pena, Quintero or Getz against LHP to make pinch hitting worth it, but Yost PHs for the one guy where he doesn’t gain advantage.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

“You don’t actually believe this, do you?”

I’m old enough to remember when the Royals had the highest payroll in baseball and other teams were complaining about escalating salaries.

“what year did Glass take control of the team?”

Control or ownership? His original control was limited by Mr. Kaufman’s will, the primary goal being to enhance values for the Foundation. After ownership David Glass, a career employee, was playing with his own money and had a learning curve. His investments since hiring Dayton Moore show that he has learned a lot.

“I honestly cannot think of one.”

The NFL, banking, and the auto industry.

“They had an entire offseason to improve themselves there and failed to do so.”

That is valid. They didn’t predict Gio’s difficulties and Colon still isn’t inspiring confidence with the bat in Springdale. At the time Yuni was signed as a UIF the assumption was that Gio would keep the job and Getz go to Omaha to sharpen SS and work on his hitting. Projecting players isn’t fool proof.

“The only thing more confounding is the anemic “effort” to improve the starting rotation this offseason.”

Roy Oswalt and his bad back weren’t going to sign with KC and GMDM wasn’t going to trade Wil Myers and Mike Montgomery for Shields.

“there seems to be a basic breakdown in understanding what the problem even is.”

So tell us what the problem is, beyond the three stud left-handed hitters bashing combined averages of.600 with critical strike-outs in high leverage situations. How would you fix that?
Brendan Woodbury
1 year, 1 month ago

“try to find another business, outside of the drug trade, who can finish at or near the bottom every year in its field and still virtually prints money. I honestly cannot think of one.”

“The NFL, banking, and the auto industry.”

The owners of the 458 banks taken over by the FDIC in the last decade and the owners of Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saab, Eagle, Mercury, and Saturn dealerships would like a word.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

Brendan, try the zombies Citi and B of A, as well as Government Motors.
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month ago

People keep talking about “the problem” without identifying what, exactly, that is. There were plenty in previous years, but those have been fixed. The solution is on the field now. Now, if people expect these Royals instantly become the Big Red Machine, then all I can do is refer them to the Cincinnati Reds of 1968 and 1969.

Those Reds knew what they had and knew what they were going to become. These Royals are the same way. So Lee is correct when he says that maybe the bashing should be directed at the marketing department for perhaps setting expectations too high too soon. Ned Yost has, too, to a certain extent. He has said his goal isn’t to win a championship with this team; he wants to win several.

That said, I saw last year what the Royals were building, and I knew I would most definitely come, Ray. We purchased our season tickets even before the “This is our time” marketing campaign began. Our time might not begin in April, it might not begin in June, but it’s coming. And for me, that will be one of the most enjoyable parts of the Royals’ resurgence - watching this team grow. I want to be there from the outset.

Remember, too, that two key ingredients to this team are missing, and their positions are at opposite ends of the line that goes right through the middle of the field. Salvy Perez won’t be back until June at the earliest, and there has never been a great team that didn’t have a great catcher (can’t complain much here, because Brayan Pena and Humberto Quintero have hit well so far). Lorenzo Cain should be coming off the DL soon (although groin injuries can nag for months), and while he started out hitting only about a buck-fifty, centerfield has already cost us two games by my count, and that’s only talking about glove work.

Yes, recognizing the problem is half the solution. But once you’ve poured the foundation, it’s time to quit stirring and let it set.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month ago

My eyes is going crazy with all the posts. I’m not sure what all of the hub-bub is over?

Can we all at least recognize some basic facts:

1) We are only two weeks into a marathon season

2) Anaheim was a dream while Cleveland was a nightmare. Detroit & Oakland somewhere between.

3) Injuries suck and Kansas City has had a lot

4) Billy Butler can rake

5) Did I mention we are only two weeks into a marathon season?

I guess my point is that it’s too early … too too early to pass judgement. I wonder what all the nay-sayers were saying after the opening series against Anaheim? I’m guessing they were high on excitment at the potential. I’m guessing they were amazed at the terrific starting pitching and timely hitting against THE HOT TEAM of the offseason. I mean this wasn’t in the cold confines of Kauffman Stadium in early April. This was sunny Californ-I-A, Albert Pujols and the playoff bound Anaheim Angels that the Royals beat two out of three. How suddenly the memories fade after a tough week of games?

Let’s all take a step back and remain focused on the big picture. We’re on the verge of greatness in Kansas City. I’m certain of it. The plan is in place but we have to be patient because it’s a process. I was pissed at this team 6 years ago. I hated where things were at. But then I started seeing Kansas City begin to make the tough draft picks and invest in the talent. The same investments they passed up in previous years. GMDM (love the acronym) and the Kansas City Royals are fully invested in the future. If you don’t believe me look at the amount of money they have shelled out on draft picks versus other teams. You can argue that’s because they have the best picks which demand the most money but KC has had the best picks for 20 years now. The key difference is before Billy Butler the Royals were OK with passing on the big ticket rookie because of the money. That’s no longer the situation. This isn’t football where you can draft one player and suddenly become a playoff caliber team.

YOUNG TEAM = MORE PATIENCE

Gold Leader says it best, “STAY ON TARGET”!
Jim Kissane
1 year, 1 month ago

Cardinals won pennants with guys like Dal Maxvill, Bobby Tolan, Skip Schumaker, Jeff (not Jared) Weaver and Joel Pineiro playing key roles. The Big Red Machine had pitchers like Clay Carroll and Gary Nolan, who didn’t have enough wins combined to warrant Hall of Fame consideration. Not a big fan of Yuni, but teams win championships, not individuals. It’s all about how the pieces fit together. They were coming together at the end of 2011, and they will continue to grow. And did you catch the part about Perez and Cain being hurt.

BTW, well said, Brian.
zack_delmont
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, you are great at what you do. I love your articles. Don’t change.
Jim Brown
1 year, 1 month ago

I think the number of negative comments today confirm your point about results v. effort. I read you the first thing every day because I learn a great deal about how players think about what they do. Fans have been fed a truck load of effort and progress bs for years. And they’re mad as hell that once again it looks like management has over promised and inevitably will under perform. So this morning when I turned to your column to read your take on the game when I got to the comments, I found that a radio talk show had broken out. I have been watching KC baseball since opening day in 1955. I’ve watched more bad baseball than any one man ought to endure.Even though I am disappointed in this start, I do see improvement. I intend to enjoy this season even if some of the commentators here and sports call-in geniuses are ready to jump ship before April has turned to May. Keep up the great work, Lee. You keep writing, so I can keep learning about the game I love.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

“But the Major League product, for 100% of his tenure here, has been an unadulterated train wreck.”

And that is just nonsense. We can look back at the players he had inherited and the job they did, then look to the present from Perez around to Frenchy and 2B is the only positional weakness. Even the rotation is stronger than it has been for years Your main complaint is with the folks on the bench. To me, that shows how far the team has come when all the sturm und drang is over a UIF or fifth outfielder.

“Do you feel that Mitch Maier, Pena and Bourgeois would be key pieces on teams like Detroit, St. Louis or NY or BOS? How about Getz? Yuni?”

Again, back ups. Do you think Billy, Hosmer, Gordon, and Alcides would be key pieces? Only reason the players you name are in the discussion is that three projected starters are apparently injured; Gio, Salvy, and ‘Zo. Just out of curiosity, how are Getz, Yuni, and Pena hitting so far this year? Quinteros? You folks seem obsessed with some players while others that you don’t mention, high ceiling starters that are the left-handed core of the offense, are having a hard time hitting their weights.

Having said all that, good efforts, guys. Our opinions differ but you make your cases and many of your points do have validity. I appreciate the ability to keep things civil and adult, something that is a hallmark of our little community and too often rare on the ‘net. Thanks.
Curtis Ruder
1 year, 1 month ago

A few thoughts:

First, if heads should roll, they should be those of the marketing department. “This is Our Time” was a mistake from the off. A team with seven number four starters is not a contender. This is still the most exciting team the Royals have put on the field since Beltran, Dye, and Damon were running around the outfield, and they managed to screw it up.

I love that this site presents the views of baseball insiders, and I especially love that Lee seems to have gotten inside some of the baseball speak. You couldn’t last long in this business if you panicked at a bad week. But at the same time, the business wouldn’t exist without us fans panicking at a bad week.

Third, I think a lot of what has been described as sabermetrics is just flat wrong. Yes, Moneyball was all about getting high OBP guys and not giving away outs in the running game and not worrying as much about defense. But those were the results of figuring out the skills undervalued in the baseball marketplace. Those skills, in no small part due to the success of Moneyball, are no longer undervalued. You can’t gain a competitive advantage doing the same things that the bigger wealthier clubs are doing. That is the point, not trying to recreate the exact same formula that worked for another team a decade ago but that has now been adopted by all the big teams.

Finally, small sample size. Small sample size. Small sample size. The one thing that scares the crap out of me is the number of close games we have handed the bullpen and lost. I count five games where it was tied or we were ahead in the late innings and didn’t get the win. I still think this is a good bullpen, and that by the time the season is over, we’ll have won the majority of those games. But if the bullpen is not as good as we thought coming in, we might be in for a really, really bad season.

And not just a really, really bad week. Which sucks, but is another thing entirely.
John Miller
1 year, 1 month ago

Enjoy the half day, Lee. You sure as heck deserve it for all your hard work. I’ve found that I enjoy the games a whole lot more when I know what’s going on behind the scenes.

Speaking as a guy who lives in Boston, losing streaks are far easier to swallow when they’re at the beginning of the season than the end. I’d be far less optimistic if we had a team comprised solely of free agents (Juan Gonzalez, anyone?), but given that we have a solid core of young guys who’ve shown they can play, I’m not too worried.

On that note, did anyone read the article by SI’s Tom Verducci about the role of closers? He makes an interesting argument.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 1 month ago

Jim, well said!! Joel well said as well!! While I am not as old as Jim (sorry, easy shot) I am old enough to remember Kauffman spending like crazy to chase another World Series. It failed miserably. Not only that but they didn’t draft well during this time either. While Kauffman’s succession plan was HUGE in even keeping the Royals in KC it did severely limit their ability to do business as a model franchise. Then Glass took over, and as Jim pointed out, had a steep learning curve. I honestly believe that Glass has figured it out and has proven that. Would it make you feel better if he paid Pujols $30 mil for 10 yrs to prove that?? Even though history shows that is a TERRIBLE waste of money. Instead he is entrusting GMDM to make those decisions and not saying no about the most important aspect of owning a major league team, player development. Even with all of that said though, you have to keep in mind that while Glass is incredibly rich, he is considered a pauper in the realm of major league baseball owners. So he has real limitations. Everyone needs to keep that in mind.

I have not always agreed with GMDM’s moves but I think he has done better with his free agent signings then many think. Yes, Guillen was a failure, but until Meche got hurt he was legit and was a good deal at the beginning of the contract.

And finally about the harsh attacks of Lee today, like Joel said, this site has never been about alot of negativity but instead thoughtful reaction to the previous nights game. Lee actually goes to great lengths not to discuss GMDM player moves, which sometimes has bothered me but I understand it would then detract from the purpose of this daily blog. So, to say it finally, if you can’t bring a thoughtful, respectful opinion to this blog, please move on to another blog and make your attacking comments.

Lee, keep up the great work!! Good night all!!
Brian Grant
1 year, 1 month ago

This thread is evidence of an informed and passionate fan base. I love it. I can forgive negative posts because you can feel the passion behind them.

Royals win tonight, begin a stretch where they win 10 of 14 games, then dance around the .500 mark the rest of year.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Well, I can see you’ve been busy while I was taking the evening off. I love that. I don’t expect everyone to agree or accept everything I say. I do expect people to be civil and make their arguments in a rational way. And for the most part, that’s what happened…good for you.

I get a lot of compliments from baseball insiders on the quality of comments on this site. Of course, those compliments are really directed at you. (Enjoy the moment.)

Obviously, I tend to agree with the people who play, coach and manage this game. These are the people that taught me, it’s no surprise I see the game from their perspective. It doesn’t make them perfect or above criticism, but for a long time I thought it was a point of view that the public ought to hear more about.

Even when I say something that makes you crazy (and apparently saying Dayton Moore just might know what he’s doing is on that list) it’s coming from people in the baseball community. I never pull something out of thin air, I say what I say because someone like Paul Splittorff made the same argument and convinced me.

The story about the number three hitter that a metrics guy wanted to bench—a story that made the site blow up this winter—came from a coach who was in the room when it happened. I don’t make this stuff up—I’m not that smart.

Here’s what I’ve been told and what I’ve witnessed concerningt Dayton Moore: The Royals were trying to do things on the cheap—that wasn’t working.

Dayton Moore was considered a hot GM prospect. Would he come here if he didn’t have assurances things would change? Nobody has told me what the deal was, but you don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to deduce that something changed with his arrival.

Positions that had gone unfilled started being filled. The team started spending more money—not enough to make some people happy, but more. The Royals started having success in the minor leagues. Those players began working their way to the major leagues.

In 2010 the Royals led the league in errors (I think, kinda rushed this morning, but anyway, they were horrible). In 2012 we have five position players that could at least be in the conversation for a Gold Glove: Frenchy, Gordo, Hos, Esky and Perez. Cain, Getz and Moose aren’t bad either.

That’s progress.

Look at the starting rotation on opening day last year: Chen, Hochevar, Davies, Francis, Mazzaro. The starting rotation this year is not what you’ll need to be a playoff team, but again, I like it better than last year’s.

Hosmer instead of Ka’aihue or Butler at first: again, progress. Moose instead of Betemit or Aviles at third: at least the potential for progress.

I think the pen is better—although Curtis makes a good point; they need to start showing it.

The big question when these young guys started showing up was: would we keep them? Instead of selling him off to the highest bidder, they re-signed Francoeur. They’ve signed deals with Escobar, Perez and Gordon.

We used to keep those guys for a while and then they were gone. Again, I see progress.

This isn’t a perfect team with perfect players or a manager or a GM who never make mistakes. It never will be. But for me, I see progress. In the past I didn’t.

I have no idea what their record will eventually be, although I’ve been asked to predict dozens of times. I see a team that’s getting better and that should logically be better yet next season.

I’m OK with that.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Mark: Ultimately, I agree with you..and so does Dayton Moore. One of the last things he said to me the other day was “This is a bottom line business. Until we execute, we’ll lose.”

If 5-7 years is the industry standard for making a gameplan work (and it pretty much is and I’ve heard that from a lot of different people over the years) Dayton Moore is entering the period where we should see results.

I think we’re starting to, for the reasons I stated above. 11 games into the season where we’re supposed to see some improvement is too soon to abandon ship, in my opinion.

Most of the people who I believe have a clue about how the team really works, think we’re going to see not just a .500 team in 2013, but a very competitive team. For me, if we don’t see that—a very competitive team in 2013—then something’s gone wrong. But I was taught to look at the game by these guys, so I probably have more patience than your average fan. It just seems we’re starting to see signs of the plan working and freaking out now is bad timing.

P.S. The 8-10 year estimate has to do with how rundown the Royals system was at that point. They didn’t need to just find players, they needed to find the people who find the players.

But if you want an answer to when I would expect to see this plan result in wins, 2013.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Mark: With a ton qualifiers, I’d agree that you have to see progress in terms of wins in 2013 or changes should be made. If it’s Dayton Moore’s fault, then maybe he’s one of those changes. (On the other hand, I’m pretty sure they’re not going to ask my opinion.)

But what if people get hurt? What if a top pitching prospect decides to up and quit? (Which briefly happened.) What if the owner decides he’s spent too much already and refuses to get the help needed?

It’s just not a simple equation and I’m not willing to form a lynch mob until I know why we’re hanging the victim. But there’s no shortage of people in the media willing to do that, so my absence won’t be missed.

I think I can see progress and I’m not willing to abandon ship at this point. The scenario that I’ve heard over and over is around .500 this year, competitive in 2013, 2014 and maybe 2015.

So it seems like we ought to see progress in the standings by 2013 and if there’s not, figure out why and make the changes necessary.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

“So are you going on record as believing that if the Royals aren’t competing for the AL Central crown in 2013, you believe Moore needs to go?”

I’ll jump in on this from a strictly business point of view: Who would be available to replace Moore? As we see in big corporations and politics, organizations have inertia and can’t turn on a dime, even if a seemingly perfect candidate can be found for the job. Do you think we could could get Tampa Bay’s GM? He is proven to be able to produce wins in a small market, although the team he took over wads much stronger and deeper than the one GMDM took over. I doubt that GM would be available. Maybe his assistant, who could come to KC with its great farm system and team full of #1 draft picks and be able to compete in a couple of years?

As for competing in 2013, I think the team is competing now. Detroit was a close series, our rotation held up quite well against Detroit’s, and aside from Verlander striking out Gordon with the bases loaded in the 9th of the first game, Dayton Moore’s fault(?),the series was decided by a few seeing-eye grounders off Greg Holland, a wild-pitch from Mijares, and Prince Fielder beating a shift. I think that is competitive and don’t think that is reason to be firing anyone.

As for ‘13 or Out, Dayton Moore isn’t going anywhere and most fans don’t want him to. There is a small group that thinks David Glass is Satan, that Dayton Moore is the False Prophet, and that Ned Yost is the antiChrist and have been calling for all their heads from the moment they came on board, so they’ll never be pleased. The rest of us see progress, see good ballplayers we like on the field, and know enough about life to realize that it is not a video-game and that players sometimes underachieve, umpires blow calls, and baseballs can take funny hops. We’re pleased with this team, reminds us of the good old days when Dayton Moore’s teacher ran the club.

“If a key media member, such as yourself, will use this belief (win & compete for Div. title in 2013 or get out)”

You might be more comfortable posting on Royals Review, Royals Authority, or Royalcentricity. There is a whole Negative Nancy niche out there that shares your views. This site is fairly unique in its viewpoint and is not for everyone, but I appreciate your contributions.
Darral VanGoethem
1 year, 1 month ago

Well said, Jim. Well said again!!
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

Thanks, Darral.

For our readers who want to see into the future:

http://www.pinetarpress.com/category/diamond-in-the-rough/

Diamonds in the Rough, on Clint Scoles’ and Greg Schaum’s excellent Pine Tar Press, gives daily coverage of the Royals’ minor league teams. From last night we learn that Mike Montgomery had a real good start with a tight curve and accurate fastball placement. We see that Tony Abreu, SS with some Show experience has a hot bat but a questionable glove at Omaha. Then we can look at Arkansas and worry some more about Christian Colon but be pleased that Wil Myers is showing improvement over last year. And so on down through the system. The link covers at least the last week.

I believe that “true” fans are more interested in the present and future than in the past and Clint and Greg do us all a great service by the incredible time and effort they put into that site. Sign-in is fairly easy and comments are appreciated, even beyond hits and eyeballs. Clint drops by here at times and knows his stuff.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Leave it to Jim to come up with a better response than mine.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago

Lee, been pondering the logs and it’s just dumb fool luck that the Royals didn’t sweep Detroit and win another game in Oakland, which would have them 7-4. Dumb Fool Luck tends to even out over a year, especially one in which young studs are still on the front side of both the learning curve and the aging curve.

For our readers, the job I want on the team is GM and if Dayton Moore gets fired I’ll volunteer to run the team for free and guarantee that within two years I would be widely lauded as a genius simply because I wouldn’t have to do anything beyond keep the scouts and draft people in place and take the credit for Hosmer and Duffy growing into their potentials. Losing streaks suck but the talent and the coaching is there and that is not an accident, it’s a result of an owner spending money and a GM hiring good people to find and develop talent.
George Smith
1 year, 1 month ago

Judge,

I disagree with you and believe Dayton Moore needs to be fired yesterday. Heck, acquiring Yuniesly Betancourt TWICE should be grounds for immediate firing. And Yost starting him AND batting him second is definately a firing (if not Lin Elliot-esq) offense.

If Dayton Moore actually looks at statistics other than RBI’s, he definately doesn’t show it in his actions.

Judge, I do appreciate your interactions with your commentors (tormentors). It is a classy move on your part. I hope to engage you more with good discussions. We may disagree with the method but it is safe to say everyone wants a winner in KC. This town is just waiting to explode- just need a good team to do it.
Brian Courington
1 year, 1 month ago

With regards to improving the pitching staff over last off season what did you want Moore to do?
The Royals are NEVER going to be able to sign the $200+ million dollar without destroying the rest of the team. See what happened the year the Royals signed both of the Davis boys, when they were the top 2 free agent pitchers in one offseason. #1 starters don’t just appear out of nowhere, if they did, there are 29 other teams that would take one if they were that easy to find. To get one by trade, you are going to have to give up Hos, Moose and probably Montgomery or another plus pitching prospect. How would that help? With that said, they have to see what they got for position players as Butler and Frenchy are really the only starter with significant big league time. We can only hope that Gio improves his hitting and defense and no one else struggles to badly. Am I happy with how the season has started, of course not but don’t give up already. Pay attention to all the little details not just wins and losses, over this season and that will tell you how good a job Moore has done with this team.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month ago

DM has said that once we have our core players, then you spend on free agents or trade big. To do so before having your core is a waste of time and money. I think we have our core but they have to prove themselves at least another year before I would spend big money. Would signing Oswalt to big bucks this year put us in contention. We are more than one pitcher away. Now if some of our young guys step up this year, then one front line pitcher may make a difference. There is no way KC can afford to go out and buy or trade for 3 front line pitcher all at once, even if they were willing to come to KC.

Also I don’t see how people feel the Royals owe them a good team. No one is holding a gun to anyones head to buy tickets. If all you are interested in is wins and loses go root for the Cardinals or Sporting KC. Vot e with your dollars not your computer.

Also if you don’t like the way Lee runs this blog go start your own. Let’s get back to anilizing the games and not all the other things.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Let me expand on what I said earlier because I think Jim made a good point: if the Royals aren’t showing progress by 2013 and you can show me how that is Dayton Moore’s fault and then show me who should replace him and how they would make things better and I’ll support a change.

(I’m not sure what world this makes a difference in, but there you go.)

It’s not enough to hate Yuni or Dayton. If you’re going to get rid of them you have to have a better alternative.

I think when people are upset they look for scapegoats. I think that’s what’s happening here. Firing someone might make you feel better, but before we start screaming for peoples’ heads we ought to ask whether that will actually make things better.

OK, that’s it for tonight. Game’s about to start.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month ago

Mark: To continue the car metaphor: if my car broke down would it make sense to start randomly replacing parts in hopes of replacing the part that’s broken?

I don’t who else is available as a GM either.

That’s why I generally stay out of those issues: I’m not qualified to comment. I can tell you the right way to play a ball off the wall, but not who should be running the team.

And thank you for the dialogue as well. Like Doug Sisson says, thank God you care enought to show up.