Games » Cleveland Indians
Apr13A loss, not a disaster
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
The crowd was not happy and they let Ned Yost know it. Luke Hochevar gave up eight hits and seven runs in the first inning and fans wanted Yost to pull him. The fact that Yost didn’t meant this was, in Chris Getz’ words, “A loss, not a disaster.”
If Ned pulled Luke in the first inning, that meant the Royals would need over eight innings from their bullpen. The effect of that could last a week. By getting Luke through four innings and getting four more out of long reliever, Everett Teaford, the Royals only needed one inning from Kelvin Herrera. That means all the relievers, with the exception of Teaford, are available tomorrow.
Throwing away innings on a lost cause is not good managing.
Hochevar’s performance
By no stretch of the imagination did Hochevar pitch well in the first inning, but it might not have been as bad as you think. He’d given up two runs and had two outs when Shelley Duncan hit a check swing RBI single. He then made a very good pitch to Casey Kotchman and Kotchman did an even better job of hitting, pulling his hands in toward his body and flaring another single to the outfield.
The killer came on a Jason Kipnis fly ball to center field: it was right at Jarrod Dyson , he froze and then the ball got up in the jet stream and just kept carrying back and toward left center. Dyson made no excuses after the game — he didn’t want to hear about the wind, “That’s on me.” If Dyson makes that catch, the Royals are out of the inning with three runs. Dyson didn’t, and the Royals shifted into protect-the-bullpen mode.
Other stuff
Major league pitchers almost always adjust — almost always. Hochevar did. After his first inning, he threw three shutout innings, which shouldn’t be overlooked.
Shin-Soo Choo stole second base in the first inning. Hochevar had a 3-2 count on Carlos Santana and used a full knee-cock (as opposed to a slide step) to deliver the ball. Lifting his knee all the way took too long, and Humberto Quintero had no chance to throw out Choo.
Before the game a lot was made out of Jeff Francoeur hitting in the two-hole. I asked Doug Sisson if leadoff hitter Jarrod Dyson’s speed made bat handling in the two-hole less important — you don’t need to bunt or hit and run, just let Dyson steal. Sisson thought it was more a case of getting your most dynamic hitters an extra at-bat.
Frenchy got two hits when Dyson got on in front of him. Afterwards, Jeff said Derek Lowe would probably pitch his game no matter what, but it’s hard not to notice that when Dyson was on first, Jeff got nothing but fastballs. When Jeff came to the plate in the third inning without Dyson on first, Lowe threw him a slider.
Mike Moustakas made an obvious great play on Kotchman in the 8th inning, but Alex Gordon made another great play, less obvious, holding Santana to a single in the 7th.
Harder than you think
Remember when I got hit by that pitch and then showed the bruise? (Both videos are still up on the site.) People were horrified by all the damage the pitch did. Of course, it may have looked worse because I’m carrying the same amount of body fat as the entire Royals outfield, backups included — but it was a good reminder of what we’re asking when we say a player should step in front of a baseball.
After catcher Humberto Quintero blocked all those balls in the dirt against the Angels, he had bruises all over his chest and arms. Players are never going to show those to the fans, but over 162 games these guys really beat up their bodies. It doesn’t mean Humberto shouldn’t get in front of another slider in the dirt, but it does mean fans ought to appreciate it when he does.
Taking nothing for granted
Mitch Maier absolutely crushed a ball when the team was in Oakland. Even watching on TV, I knew it had a chance to leave the yard. I told Mitch I’d never hit a ball that hard and asked him when he knew it was gone.
“When it landed.”
Figuring out why his teammates love Mitch Maier? I guess when you’re a bench player you take nothing for granted.
Those spring training stats
OK, we’re one week into the season: does anybody care that Bruce Chen’s had a lousy spring training ERA? Or that Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain were tearing the cover off the ball in the Cactus League? Spring training stats get overblown because there just aren’t any other numbers available. And the same thing happens with stats in April — hot and cold streaks get magnified. Alex Gordon does not have 400 other at-bats to smooth out a 2-22 stretch.
So relax. I don’t know what Gordon’s going to hit this year, but I’m guessing it won’t be .091.
(And just to prove it, Alex picked up two more hits today.)
Moustakas
Gordon
Hosmer
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoWe’re still getting the roster updated, so I’ll add Jarrod Dyson’s numbers when we finish.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month agoGood point on leaving Hoch in to eat some innings. Also gave him a chance to get his stuff back together again after a disastrous first inning. Smart managing.
Glad to have some games again. Thanks for the good piece.
Aaron Bailey
1 year, 1 month agoI don’t remember which batter it was, but one of those first inning hits rolled past Betancourt to his left (which you mentioned the other day was his weakness at SS) and I wondered if Getz would have gotten to it. And then Betancourt’s error also came going to his left, I wasn’t too opposed to his signing, but I’m not seeing the advantage of playing him this often.
Danny Alvord
1 year, 1 month agoI love baseball, but baseball fans can drive me crazy. They are so quick to throw the team or the players (or the manager) under the bus after a week. I like that you approach it from a less alarmist perspective.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoWelcome back Jim, have missed your insite lately.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJim: I know fans were upset, but if Ned did what they wanted, the Royals would be in trouble throughout this series and part of the next. Yost can have a quick hook if he’s protecting a lead, but down by that much that soon means he’s got to think about tomorrow.
And I agree, with Larry, we’ve missed you.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoAaron: I’m not sure about Betancourt going to his left at second, Eddie Rodriguez was trying to fix that by having him alter his stance.
But I would’ve liked to see a replay of his footwork on those balls. Yuni going to his left is worth keeping an eye on.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoDanny: Thanks. That less alarmist perspective comes directly from the players. You can’t be around these guys for long without seeing that they don’t get too low about a bad game or too high about a good one.
It’s a long season and everybody needs to remember that. Of course, there’s more drama in saying they stink or they’re great—but any time you do that, there’s a good chance time will prove you wrong.
Matthew LaMar
1 year, 1 month agoLee, a few questions:
Do the management and players honestly believe that Yuni Betancourt is a good defender? It seems that many fans (myself included) are appalled by his lack of range at any position. It seems pretty obvious, and the defensive statistics over his career seem to back that up. Are we just not seeing something?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoMatthew: I can’t tell you what Royals and management honestly believe about Betancourt. But I can tell you what I believe after watching him play every game of 2010:
Betancourt is not as bad defensively as some people say. I’m not a big fan of zone ratings that don’t account for where the player was standing when the ball was put in play.
Betancourt can be spectacular when going to his right, back or coming forward. Yuni has problems going to his left due to poor footwork, which the Royals are trying to correct. (I couldn’t say whether the ball that trickled through to his left yesterday is a play he should’ve made—I haven’t seen a replay that showed his starting position.)
In my opinion, at the plate and in the field, Yuni’s a terrific athlete who is inconsistent. He’ll swing at a pitch a foot outside and then swing at a pitch alomost that far inside and hit that one for a home run. (I saw that in 2010.)
Same thing in the field: he’ll make an unbelievable play and then follow that up by not making one you thought would be routine.
All players have strengths and limitations: in my opinion, those are Betancourt’s. So far the Royals think Yuni’s strengths outweigh his limitations.
Blair Bieser
1 year, 1 month agoDidn’t Dyson make a mental mistake on Francoeur’s flare single to right field in the 7th? He was at first with two outs and was stealing second on the pitch, and when he saw it was a fly ball, he stopped like he thought there was only one out. It seemed like if he had kept running, he might have had a chance to score.
Jim Eicher
1 year, 1 month agoSomeone wise once said (maybe on this site) that you should never look at player statistics or team standings until mid-June. The season is too long to make quick judgements. Relax, folks. Having said that, I find it difficult to not look at the grid on this site every day. Thanks for the work, Lee. I also really enjoyed your take on spring training.
Brian Robinson
1 year, 1 month agoGood Morning Lee, So let’s talk about the big white elephant in the room …. Eric Hosmer’s hitting versus lefties. Hopefully it’s just an anomaly but the early numbers indicate a weakness against lefthanded pitchers. Have you talked with Kevin Seitzer on what extra challenges Hosmer faces during those plate appearances? Like most young hitters Hosmer does seem aggressive and ready to pounce on every pitch, but he’s like that regardless of who’s throwing. I’m wondering if he’s having trouble picking up breaking balls because I noticed him swinging at a few sliders that started in the zone but ended up low and away. He also seems to pull the trigger more often on the high fastballs coming from the left than the right. What are your thoughts or is it just too early to get a read?
George Reschke
1 year, 1 month agoDid I miss something or did Dyson make a base running mistake in the early innings. He was on first, 2 outs, flyball to right that drops in for a hit. Problem was Dyson held up to see if it drops in. He should have been running hard from the crac of the bat and with his speed could score from first. That should have been the first thing in his mind besides not getting picked off.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBlair: I know the play you’re talking about and noticed the same thing. I don’t think Dyson would have been able to score from first on a single, even if he kept going. So I don’t think he cost the team anything.
But not knowing how many outs there are, even if it doesn’t change anything, could be considered a mental mistake and I’ve scored it that way in the past.
I’ve also changed scoring after talking to the people involved and I think I’ll ask Doug Sisson his opinion. Sisson actually got me to score harder on pickoffs.
I used to give the runner credit if I thought they were going on first movement from a lefthander, but Sisson said any time a base stealer gets thrown out by anyone but the catcher, he considers it a mistake.
By the way, I love it when you guys bring up things I didn’t mention. It means you’re thinking critically about what you’re seeing and forces me to do the same.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJim: Dayton Moore says you don’t know what you have until you’re 40 games into the season. Hitting coaches will tell you it takes about 50 at-bats to form an opinion and see patterns.
It’s a long season, but people like to rush to judgment. Ballplayers know that’s rarely wise.
And I’m glad you enjoyed the look at spring training. It was fun for me, too.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBrian: As I recall Hosmer hit about .70 points less against left-handed pitching last season. So if he struggles against a left-hander this year, it fits the pattern.
I’m sure everyone would like him to hit lefties better, but this is typical of left-handed hitters—which is why left-handed relievers can pitch forever, they can still get these guys out.
There’s a long explanation for this, but I’ll try to give you the short version: right-handed hitters see a lot of right-handed pitching. The ball’s release point is right at their head and that makes it very hard to read because it’s coming right at them—it’s easier to see movement from the side. (Also why Dyson misread that fly ball yesterday.)
So right-handed hitters develop “quick-bat” characteristics—wait as long as they can and then be quick. (Which is why you rarely see a really pretty right-handed swing).
Left-handed hitters get a better angle on the ball when released from a righty and they tend to have more of a “weight-shift” swing—a little longer, but prettier than a righties short hack.
The problem comes when a lefty faces a lefty; left-handers aren’t as used to it and it’s easier to get fooled on the pitch.
I’m sure Seitzer talks with Eric about this stuff and is trying to help him improve, but it’s hard for almost every left-handed hitter.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoGeorge: See the response above, but I plan to ask Doug Sisson his opinion.
Gaines Arnold
1 year, 1 month agoIt seems that Hochever, like most pitchers on opening day, was just too amped. He was throwing the ball high in the strike zone, a problem he corrected after the first inning. He also had some bad luck (I’ve never seen a check swing hit quite like that before). As with the hitters, I think it is too early to say anything about Luke (or Broxton after his last save attempt). It will be interesting though to see how he adjusts in his next outing.
Jim Brown
1 year, 1 month agoLee, I agree with your point about the value of getting 4 innings out of Hochevar.But it is very easy for me to overlook his 3 shutout innings. Frankly that has been the story of Luke’s tenure with KC. He shows real talent a great deal of the time but turns in some of the worst half innings in Royal history. I was in Baltimore last year and although I don’t remember the exact particulars, Luke worked 3 or 4 excellent innings, then melted down in spectacular fashion giving up 8-10 runs, then settled down for a n excellent finish. This is the Luke we have seen time and time again. He clearly has a lot of ability but either his mind wanders or he can’t recover from team mate errors or bad luck. When that happens the talent goes out the window and he digs us a hole that is almost impossible to dig out of. I hope the young man figures it out soon because patience is wearing very thin.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoGaines: I haven’t talked to him, but until I do, I’d have to agree with your assessment of Luke. He was up in the zone early and that often means overthrowing.
Hochevar did have some bad luck. Although, not only have I seen a check swing hit—I’ve had one. You almost feel like apologizing to the pitcher. Until you remember all the line drives you’ve had caught.
It’s too early to make assessments about anyone, but if they had a pattern last year and you’re seeing the same pattern this year, that’s worth watching.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJim: You’re right, Hochevar’s had that pattern and we’ve all seen it. Of course, the Royals wouldn’t put up with the blow-up innings if Luke didn’t show them the shutout innings as well.
That’s what keeps everybody hoping: you know he has that kind of talent if he can figure out how to be consistent.
Matthew LaMar
1 year, 1 month agoSure, Yuni has showed flashes of brilliance. I agree. But if what you’re saying is “Betancourt is not as bad defensively as some people say”, isn’t that damning in and of itself? Not “He’s good” or “He’s average” but “he’s not as bad?”
Also, the issue I have is that multiple defensive stats, show deficient defense, and not just zone rating. In 2011 with the Brewers, he was fourth-worst out of qualifying SS with a .965 fielding percentage. In 2009, with two different teams, he compiled a sixth-worst .968 fielding %. Then, he’s posted a negative zone rating every year in the big leagues, and was so bad he posted a negative value in the course of the entire year whilst uninjured.
Is he that bad defensively? Maybe not. But is he bad? I’d say the stats, over 8225 innings, tell the story. So, Lee, I find it troubling if the Royals value his defensive contributions, because they are clearly ignoring statistical evidence that says otherwise.
Devan Shopinski
1 year, 1 month agoLee
Yuni’s error on the ground ball in the 8th was a carbon copy of Escobar’s error in OAK. Sitting back and letting a slow bouncer play them.
I watch a lot of Brewers games and the announcers do not like Yuni at all. They constantly talk about how much better Alex Gonzalez is. Yuni put up nearly identical numbers last year as he did with the Royals in 2010. Not spectacular, but solid. He’s not Escobar defensively or JJ Hardy with a bat, but he’s not horrible.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoMatthew: Well, some people said Betancourt was the worst shortstop in baseball. I haven’t met anyone who’s seen him play every day that would agree.
And as I say to anyone who just wants to look at a players’ offensive stats, you have to look at what they do on both sides of the ball. Yuni does some things at the plate that affect the way he’s seen in the overall picture.
And finally, what’s the alternative? If there’s a great hitting-slick fielding shortstop out there available at a reasonable price, I’m guessing the Royals would like to hear about it.
I’ve continually said I try to stay out of GM issues, I don’t think I know enough to second-guess some pretty smart guys.
It doesn’t mean you have to agree, but it’s clear the Royals think enough of him to put him on the field.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoLee, Not sure what Sam Mellinger’s background is, but it obviously isn’t baseball. He gets way to high and way to low even for a columnist. It’s okay to criticize/analyze that’s what a columnist does, but to consider the “well drained of optimism” because of a half inning in one game goes beyond the pale. Does he read your column?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoDevan: The only difference in Yuni’s error and Esky’s is Yuni being at second base. Second baseman have the short throw and usually don’t have to charge the ball as hard as a shortstop—and charge it too hard and you’ll be throwing across your body to a base that’s behind you.
Having said all that it’s still a good idea to move forward whenever possible on a grounder.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoI guess I want to see more time with Yuni at second before I form an opinion. All the stats up till now are with him playing short stop. He was a second baseman in Cuba, Seattle for some reason decided to convert him to short. From the small sample I’ve seen so far, I like the way he turns 2 at second. Also keep in mind he was signed as a utility infielder. If Gio gets his act together in Omaha you will see less of Yuni at second. Then all the people that don’t like Gio’s defense can have a shot.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“So, Lee, I find it troubling if the Royals value his defensive contributions, because they are clearly ignoring statistical evidence that says otherwise.”
The same statistical evidence that had Hosmer the worst 1B in the league last year? Defensive stats are fairly lame and have been since “error” was defined and it was noted that guys who get to more balls get more errors. A better evaluation of Yuni’s defense has been given several times by Lee and others, two obvious weaknesses being balls to his left due to his stance and apparent lapses in concentration that cause him to blow the routine play after making a great one. Those are among the reasons he signed cheap as a utility infielder. The only reason he is playing much is that Johnny Giavotella failed to hold on to second base when given the opportunity last year and this spring. I guess you can blame GMDM for not predicting that Gio would be a bust, but I can’t think of any of the bloggers or commentators who predicted that, as they were blinded by Gio’s stats in the minors.
William Carl Grandi
1 year, 1 month agoLee, “Well, some people said Betancourt was the worst shortstop in baseball. I haven’t met anyone who’s seen him play every day that would agree.”
Trying to “stay out of GM issues” is one thing, but the fact that Betancourt has been discussed as one of the worst shortstops/everyday players in the game certainly merits some “second guessing” no matter how smart you feel those making the decisions are, wouldn’t you agree?
Finally, what is the alternative? Well if the Royals’ front office were indeed beyond reproach, then I would expect them to have a bevy of viable “utility infielders” if that is what we are to believe Betancourt is at this point. The fact that they don’t have a better alternative is certainly faint praise.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoJim: maybe you know, do they break down errors by fielding and throwing or do they get lumped together. If they divide them up, you could look at what affect the first baseman has on a short stop. I know the Royals infield likes Hosmer because he saves them a lot of times.
Matthew LaMar
1 year, 1 month agoLee:
With respect, I think that we shouldn’t ‘stay out’ of GM issues. Clearly we don’t have all the information, which is why criticism does not extend to all facets of GM actions. However, there are plenty of us who are also intelligent, engaged baseball fans whose opinions shouldn’t be ignored just because we don’t work in the industry. Intelligent non-musicians can engage in music criticism just as musicians can.
I’d call Yuni’s hitting subpar as well as his defense, namely because he doesn’t get on base. He does have some pop, but his career on-base percentage is extremely low, and he’s an out machine.
That being said, I don’t have a problem with Yuni on the lineup—as a utility player. I would have Giavotella at 2B and send down Getz. Gia offers the most upside and, let’s face it, this year is probably not ‘our time’.
Jim:
I definitely agree defensive statistics are not as advanced as offensive statistics. However, in Yuni’s case, multiple statistics over a huge amount of innings say the same thing: Yuni isn’t good. In Hosmer’s case, there was only one defensive statistic that claimed he was a bad defender, and furthermore, a couple of writers at Royals Review determined it was due to positioning (this argument does not apply to Yuni, because he has played for three different clubs with multiple managers and fellow IFs)
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“The fact that they don’t have a better alternative is certainly faint praise.”
William, this is the most valid criticism of GMDM on this point, that 2B is such a systemic weakness in spite of using a #2 and #1 draft choice to try to fill the void left by Mark Grudzelanik(sp?)Gio hasn’t worked so far, Christian Colon is worrisome based on his time in Springdale, and I’m wondering if Rey Navarro may be our next hope for the position. But that is the curse of the modern draft and the need to draft hitters and pitchers, which GMDM has done well enough on. Some positions, 2B and C most obviously, haven’t had the attention or the success that others have and we are paying the price with Sal Perez’ injury and Johnny Giavotella’s underachievement.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoEverybody: I’ve been down on the field for early work and have answers to some of the questions that have been asked here today.
I’ll put those in the game notes that will appear tonight and I need to start working on those now.
But I should probably clarify an earlier statement; just because I try to stay out of GM issues that doesn’t mean I think everyone should. It also doesn’t mean I think the Royals are above criticism.
But I spend most of my time trying to understand how the game is played and how these guys in particular play it.
If you ask me about Yuniesky Betancourt’s game, I feel like I can give you a coherent answer. If you ask me if he should be here, I know very little about the alternatives and feel like that would be reflected in my response.
So feel free to second guess Dayton Moore, but it’s just not something I feel qualified to do.
Kurt Vancil
1 year, 1 month agoGio’s underachievement is based on less than half a season and one spring training? Seems like he needs to be given more of a chance before he is an under-achiever. Remember that Alex Gordon guy who under-achieved for a long time?
I try to stay positive but Yuni is my least favorite baseball player ever. I live in the Seattle area and got to watch him play a lot. When the Royals originally traded for him I was appalled. When he was sent to Milwaukee I was ecstatic and when he resigned I was depressed for two weeks (not really - but I was mad about it).
That said I am rooting for him because he is a Royal and hope he does some positive things for us. I just think if we are going to preach defense then Getz needs to be in there. If we want offense get Gio back up and let him prove himself (or prove that we need another person at second). Thats just my thinking and it seems like many people agree.
Jim Fetterolf
1 year, 1 month ago“Gio’s underachievement is based on less than half a season and one spring training?”
And on his minor league time. He has long had a reputation as an iron glove and his only shot is to hit well, to become a poor man’s Dan Uggla whose bat can overcome -15 fld.
“Remember that Alex Gordon guy who under-achieved for a long time?”
Gordon had a solid first season, then was hurt for two years. The two may be analogous to the extent that Gio also had a hip injury last year that he played through, then was operated on in the off-season, so may just need some rehab time. He says that his hip is fine, but if it is he may just be a AAAA player. I hope Gio gets better, I like the way he plays and have a soft spot for undersized guys who overachieve, but recognize that if he doesn’t we have a problem because our next best 2B may be Seratelli or Falu, as Colon isn’t forcing any hands.
As for the Yuni signing, I disagreed with it. I would have used Irving Falu as the UIF; good corporate soldier, had a good year in Omaha, plays a bunch of positions, has a little bat and speed, and earned his chance in the bigs. I didn’t see the need to go outside the organization, but I’m a strong believer in promoting from within.
“Thats just my thinking and it seems like many people agree.”
And a valid thought, if Gio is really healthy, but I don’t think he is, which is why he was sent down so early in training camp. I think the coaches saw something in his motion and mobility that told them he wasn’t right, so chose Omaha for rehab and defensive improvement and bit the bullet and lived with what they had. If Gio can hit .350 and get to a few more balls, he can be back up in May. It’s all on him now.