Games » Oakland Athletics
Apr10One trip through the rotation
Lee Judge
The Kansas City Star
Danny Duffy‘s ERA is 0.00. Bruce Chen’s is also 0.00. Luis Mendoza’s is 1.59, Luke Hochevar’s is 2.84 and Jonathan Sanchez has a 3.60 ERA. It’s only one trip through the rotation and, if they stay healthy, each pitcher is looking at about 30 more starts, but the first trip through the starting rotation could not have gone much better. If the Royals are going to be better than predicted, this is probably what needs to happen; better starting pitching than expected.
Last night Duffy showed why the Royals are so high on him; electric stuff. There were at-bats Duffy totally dominated. Take Anthony Recker’s trip to the plate in the third inning. Duffy had his fastball in the upper 90s at times, so Recker was ready to rip and grip at the first pitch. Instead, Danny dropped a change up on Recker—out in front, swing and miss. Then Recker got the heat he’d been expecting on the first pitch—late, swing and miss. Duffy finished him off with a nasty curve — clueless, swing and miss.
Once you see a player perform like Danny Duffy did last night, you know he has it in him — now you need to know how often he can get it out. Danny tends to get over-amped at times and you could see the Royals new pitching coach, Dave Eiland, trying to slow Duffy down. Dave was demonstrating the herky-jerky pitching motion Duffy has when he’s rushing, then showed Duffy the smooth release he has when he dials it back. The demonstration must’ve worked: Danny threw too many pitches and walked four, but other than that, Duffy dominated.
Like I said, it’s only one trip through the order, but it’s been a nice one.
Other stuff
When I was down at spring training, Kevin Seitzer and Ned Yost kept saying Chris Getz was a different hitter. Changes to his stance and approach to the ball were resulting in more power. I saw a couple hints of that, but it didn’t seem like I was seeing a dramatic change in results — until last night. Getz hit a deep drive to right that would’ve driven two runs if A’s right fielder Collin Cowgill hadn’t made an exceptional play on the warning track. Then Getz hit a home-run-distance foul ball. Two swings do not prove much, but they may prove Kevin Seitzer and Ned Yost know what they’re talking about.
Same with Alex Gordon, he’s got another 0-fer in the box score, but barreled up two balls last night. Alex is scuffling, but he’s hit several balls well enough to have hits — the numbers aren’t quite as bad as they look.
When it gets wet in the outfield, you can sometimes look for runners to take extra bases. The ball takes longer to get to the fielder and is soaking wet when it arrives; not ideal for making a strong throw. But taking extra bases on the outfielders depends on how bad the infield is. Grounds crews use a drying agent to keep the infield playable, but the surface can get very sticky.
Which is why Chris Getz did a face plant while attempting a steal. The human lawn dart came up with mud on his chin. Here’s what happened: The drying agent makes the ground tacky and anyone attempting a head first slide is likely to find their chest sticking in the mud and the rest of their body attempting to pass their chest. That’s what made that slide look so awkward.
Mitch Maier hit a booming home run to right. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Everybody knows Maier’s job is to sit and wait for a chance. Using that chance to hit a home run makes everybody happy — for the team — and for Mitch.
After Mitch’s home run, A’s pitcher Jerry Blevins walked Humberto Quintero on four pitches. Always watch what the pitcher does after giving up a bomb. The bulldogs don’t care—they just keep throwing strikes. More timid personalities start to nibble.
Billy Butler caught stealing? What next, cats marrying dogs? Actually, not as crazy as it sounds: Jeff Francoeur was at the plate and had a 3-2 count. The Royals gambled that Francoeur would make contact and lost the bet.
The base running isn’t going that well right now, but if that’s your game, you have to stick with it. You can’t panic and change horses in the middle of the stream. Nothing looks worse than a running game that isn’t succeeding, nothing looks better than one that is.
OK, am I crazy or just tired? When they went into the second rain delay last night, I set the DVR and went to bed. Eric Hosmer had just convinced everybody it was too dangerous to play by losing the bat on strike three and helicoptering it toward the first-base dugout. I woke up this morning to find out they never resumed play and the game was shortened to seven innings. But Hosmer’s eighth-inning K is listed in the MLB box score. That’s not right, is it? I’m too tired and rushed to go over the rulebook this morning, so I could use a reader assist.
Last night showed why baseball is not meant to be played in the rain: Lorenzo Cain got hurt on a wet surface, Chris Getz could’ve easily done the same and Hosmer’s bat could have taken out a third person. MLB has done some goofy stuff with the schedule and that backs them into a corner trying to get games in. Supposed to rain again today — maybe they can do rock, paper, scissors for the win and call it a day.
Duffy
Crow
Maier
Jon Worley
1 year, 1 month agoI’m not a fantasy baseball player, but I do like to mess around with computer simulations. One thing I noticed while playing Out of the Park (which is exceptionally detailed and murderously stat-driven) is that the ERA for my pitchers improved dramatically when I surrounded them with good fielders. I give up some bat for a lot of glove, and my teams win like crazy. Computer nonsense aside, the reason I mention this is that fielding has been almost inordinately influential in the first five games for the Royals—bad fielding by the Angels, outstanding fielding (and throwing) by the As on Monday and fine fielding all around last night (despite the weather). On the whole, our defense has been good to great so far. Pitchers need to trust their defense, and the low ERAs of our starters so far would seem to show that they’re doing just that.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJon: That computer simulation is interesting. In general, fans get caught up in offensive stats because they’re better than the numbers available on defense.
But professionals don’t care if you put the numbers on the board or keep them off—it’s all part of winning.
Two years ago the Royals had the worst defense in the AL, this year they have five possible Gold Glove candidates (Gordon, Francoeur, Hosmer, Escobar and Perez when he returns) and solid gloves at every other position.
That’s a big change. We’ll see how much it means this year.
Kurt Vancil
1 year, 1 month agoVery excited about Duffy’s performance last night and on a night with rain delays I have heard that pitchers can sometimes tighten up because of the delay. Didn’t seem to bother Duffy at all. Of coarse he won’t always pitch this well but it will be exciting to watch him develop even more.
I am surprised you didn’t mention Cain’s catch in the second. Looks like he saved one run with that catch and who knows what happens the rest of the inning. Great to see his range displayed and I hope he is OK. I’m not sure Melky gets to that ball last year.
Lastly, I bet you are excited for a day game. These have been some late nights.
Fred Bracken
1 year, 1 month agoI wonder what Danny’s Red Bull blood level was last night.
Kevin Flanagan
1 year, 1 month agoJon, I can echo your sentiments on the value of defense when running simulations. I used to mess around a lot with diamond mind baseball, which is generally considered the ultimate statistical baseball simulator there is (its like stratomatic on steroids).
I remember several years ago being very frustrated with Buddy Bell as he stuck with Mark Grudzielanek instead of the offensive minded and speedy Esteban German. I later ran 10 season simulations with each as the starter, keeping all other roster variables constant and turning off injuries. The results shocked me. Despite the fact that the German team scored significantly more runs, they lost more games as they gave up many more runs than he created over Grudz (German was rated as a 2/5 defender while Grudz was a 4/5).
The same principle has played out for me several other times. And the fact that Diamond Mind plays out so accurately when you use actual lineups tells me that their game engine is very, very good.
One of the other cool things you can do with DMB is release all players to a draft pool, and then draft a team while letting the computer draft for all other 29 teams. Using this I was able to test several roster-building hypotheses.
Without getting too deep, what I’ve found is that the most consistently good team is built by focusing on excellent defenders (especially up the middle) and strong pitching while settling for mediocre offense.
Cain’s play last night was a good example of how one great defensive play can change a game when he took away at least one run (and maybe two since the batter likely would’ve gotten a triple).
Nathan Coltrane
1 year, 1 month agoLots of great things last night. Cain’s great play, Maier’s home run, Duffy’s pitching and a great 3 K performance by Crow. I wonder if Crow loves his place in the pen or does he really want to be in the rotation?
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoKurt: You’re absolutely right about Cain’s play—I should’ve mentioned it. Lorenzo ran so far, when he went into the dark, I thought he might’ve run into another time zone. I agree, Melky probably doesn’t get to that one.
Duffy was outstanding and you can see what they like about him and why he’s here.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoFred: Maybe they substituted Xanax for the Red Bull. I don’t know for sure, but it looked like Danny would get over-amped on a pitch and then bring himself back under control—I’ll ask when I see him.
If he’s learned that trick he’s turned a corner.
Chris Limbird
1 year, 1 month agoYou’re shorting Duffy in your grid.
He a) had a pickoff and b) since he only gave up 4 walks in 6 innings, I believe he has at least 2 innings without a BB or HBP.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoKevin: What you guys are saying about these computer simulations if very interesting. I was taught “defense up the middle, offense in the corners.” If you get some offense out of a middle defender or good D from a first baseman, so much the better.
I know people get frustrated with managers who play people with lousy OPS’s (a certain second baseman comes to mind), but the managers may know what they’re doing.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoNathan: I don’t know what Crow thinks about the pen vs. starting, but when he’s on he looks dynamite. I don’t know if that’s because he’s only pitching one inning at a time and we shouldn’t get greedy or he could do that for seven innings.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoChris: Thanks for the heads-up—I’ll check it out and make corrections this afternoon. As I’ve said before, there can be over a thousand boxes on one grid and putting the numbers in while dead on your feet leads to mistakes.
The other day I handed out six saves until I realized I was in the wrong category.
Jon Worley
1 year, 1 month agoEven more simulation geekiness: If I run a league that uses the DH, it pays to have a 1B that can field rather than hit dinger after dinger (though both are best, of course). When playing in a pitcher-hitting league, it’s much more important for the 1B to hit the long ball.
All of these results have something to do with the biases of the programmers, of course, but they do prompt a few questions. Like, was it really so awful having Offerman at first base?
(just to be clear, that last bit is a joke)
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJon: That’s really interesting stuff. But I suspect you’re wise to assume the programmers’ biases play a role. As a friend of mine with a degree in this stuff pointed out: in any model there are two questions 1.) Did you pick the right variables? 2.) Did you weight them correctly?
We look at a number and it seems very scientific, but that number may have very subjective elements involved.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoAs for Crow, it appears that he is not as dominate and consistent when he comes out for a second inning. If this is true rather than just a short term trend, he is better right now in his current role. This doesn’t mean he can’t move into a starter’s role later, just not ready for that now.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoChris: Not only did I shortchange Duffy on the grid, I missed Crow as well. Just managed to skip that “no walks in an inning” category when I filled it out at 6AM.
Duffy actually had three innings without a walk (he walked two in the 5th) and Crow had no walks in the 7th.
Totally missed the pick-off, not sure how I managed that, but I’m giving you an assist in the score-keeping department.
Thanks.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJoel: Probably a small sample size on Crow and he has started in the past, but right now is it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Joel Kallem
1 year, 1 month agoLee, as to your earlier question, I believe the rule is that individual statistics count even when the game is called in the middle of an inning or suspended and rescheduled at a later date.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoA good example of what difference good defense makes is Cain catches the ball over his head in center and Cespedes did not.
Larry Tindle
1 year, 1 month agoLee: All individual stats count Rule 10 (e) (1) and ref. Rule 4.10 (a) Game ends without 3 outs being made, such as walk off in bottom of the 9th all indivdual stats count.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoJoel and Larry: Thanks for the assist on the rules—I’ll make the change on the grid. And, yeah, the difference between Cain Cespedes was the difference between winning and losing.
There’s a reason pros believe in pitching and defense.
Ben Cerutti
1 year, 1 month agoKeep in mind that the starting staff (before today’s game 6 of the season) did not average 6 innings per outing NOR did they have a K:BB at or above 2. Neither of those are good indicators of success.
I love the optimism, however.
Lee Judge
1 year, 1 month agoBen: You’re right—too many walks and high pitch counts, but at this point I’m not looking a gift horse in the mouth.