Games » Oakland Athletics
Sep5Five hundred walks
Lee Judge
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A lot of cool things happened in this game, so let’s start with the good stuff. The Royals won. The offense battled back all day. The defense turned a spectacular double play. The A’s didn’t want to pitch to Eric Hosmer, so they went after Billy Butler, who crushed a home run. The Royals got 15 hits. The bullpen provided four and two-thirds innings of scoreless relief (one inherited run did score).
And did I mention that the Royals won?
And the Royals’ pitchers also issued their 500th walk of the season. (Let that number marinate in your prefrontal cortex for a second.)
Five hundred walks. That leads the league. Chicago, best in the league at throwing strikes, isn’t even approaching 400 walks (unless they issued 39 walks in the last two days). Five hundred walks in 142 games means that, on average, the Royals are handing out 3.5 base runners per game. How many games have the Royals lost by one run this season? Like 172? (My math might be off, but there’s a point coming.)
Of the pitchers who still are on staff, they now have issued 82 walks that scored. How many of those one-run losses could have been avoided simply by throwing strikes? (The number of all the walks issued by Royals pitchers that scored is even worse, but I woud have to call an IT guy on Labor Day to find that one out … and 82 is bad enough to make my point.)
And it’s not just walks and walks that have scored that hurt the team. Walks raise the pitch count. Walks make manager Ned Yost get into the bullpen earlier, which hurts the team’s chance to win the next day. Walks make the defense play worse because the defense is standing around all day. And I’m pretty sure walks have some connection to world hunger (this one hasn’t been proved by science … yet).
In any case, walks are bad. And if the Royals are going to be competitive in 2012, they can’t walk 500 batters.
Game notes
• Everett Teaford had another solid outing. He doesn’t have Tim Collins’ innings-pitched-to-strikeout ratio, but he doesn’t walk the world, either. I’m not the manager, but if Collins remains inconsistent and Teaford continues to throw well, don’t be surprised if Everett becomes the situational lefty of choice out of the pen. (And there may be other factors I’m unaware of. There usually are.)
• In surveys of players, the Oakland Coliseum (hey, they can call it whatever they want, I don’t have to go along) often is named the worst ballpark in the major leagues, but maybe I should ask more pitchers. All that foul ground means pop-ups that usually would be in the stands in other ballparks can be caught for outs in Oakland.
The reverse is true in Kansas City. The additional seats behind home plate and the dugout suites in Kauffman Stadium mean a pitcher’s ERA goes up … but they do have a huge outfield to work with.
• I spent a lot of time talking to Royals pitching coach Bob McClure last weekend, and he told me that when Joakim Soria is right, Soria’s fastball has a funny little skip to it, right at the end. McClure said it’s as if the ball is going along and hits a patch of ice. Mac says he can’t teach that and Joakim just naturally has that movement when everything’s going well.
Mac also said that’s why Soria can appear to throw a fastball down the middle of the plate and hitters swing through it. If that’s true, Monday’s game was a good sign because Soria was throwing 92 and 93 mph fastballs past the last three hitters for strikeouts.
• I also asked Mac about pace. Is it taught to pitchers? He said, yes, the coaches emphasize it every spring. Unfortunately, some pitchers can speed up, and some pitchers really struggle with it. Then Mac told me something I hadn’t thought of: Pace also can be the catcher’s fault.
The Royals’ coaches have been asking catcher Salvador Perez to get the signs down faster. Sal has apparently will watch an opposing hitters prepare to bat (adjusting his batting gloves, taking practice swings, etc.) and then puts down the sign once the batter steps in the box.
Mac has asked Sal to give the signs while the hitter goes through all his gyrations and have the pitcher ready to throw as soon as the batter steps in the box.
• In the fifth inning, the Royals put base running Eric Hosmer in motion with one out and a 3-2 count to Jeff Francoeur. The idea of putting the runner in motion is this (and I think I’ve explained this before): Ball four, no harm no foul. A fastball for a strike, and the hitter probably will get at least a piece of it. Off-speed for a strike, and the runner has a great chance to steal the base.
The Oakland pitcher threw Frenchy a change-up. Frenchy missed it, and Hosmer stole the base … for about a tenth of a second. Eric over-slid and was tagged out, but still, the logic was good. (You also can line-out into a double play, but standing still has its risks, too.)
The strikeout and Alex Gordon
Alex told me he would like to cut down on his strikeouts in the future, and I asked him whether he thought he had been too selective with two strikes (Alex leads the Royals in strikeouts looking). Alex said maybe, but he couldn’t remember too many times he thought he had been screwed by an umpire.
I pointed out that Alex is left-handed, can run a bit and even slapping a weak grounder the other way with two strikes would give him a chance. I also pointed out that he was listening to a cartoonist on the subject of hitting … but I still think I’m right.
How you steal a base
OK, the runner gets down to first, and first-base coach Doug Sisson leans in his ear and says, “One-point-three, shoulder.” This means that the opposing pitcher takes 1.3 seconds to deliver the ball to home plate and that the shoulder is the body part that will indicate whether the pitcher is going to first or home.
The runners know what time they can generally beat.
• Mitch Maier can beat a 1.4.
• Johnny Giavotella can beat a 1.4.
• Alex Gordon can beat a 1.4.
• Chris Getz can beat a 1.3.
• Jeff Francoeur says he can beat a 1.3 and a half. (I can’t get a straight answer out of that guy.)
• Eric Hosmer can beat a 1.5 (which means he has to be very selective about when he goes).
Mike Moustakas said he also can beat a 1.5, but there aren’t many of those around. I pointed out that Detroit closer Jose Valverde is a 1.5 when a runner is on first base and a 1.7 when a runner’s on second. Mike then pointed out that you have to get on base against Valverde to take advantage of those numbers.
Hmmm. Good point. Moose prefers to not steal and instead concentrates on secondary leads and taking the extra base.
Here’s the point to all of this: Royals base-runners are not taking off because they have a good feeling or they feel fast that day. It’s based on math. That doesn’t mean the runner will be safe every time. Other factors intrude. Catchers obviously affect things. The Indians’ Lou Marson is quick. The Indians’ Carlos Santana is slow, so the Royals ran more against Santana. (Two seconds flat is fairly normal for a catcher to deliver a ball to second base. Salvador Perez recently threw a 1.88, so think about how that affects the other team.)
Johnny Giavotella told me that you might be right on the edge of being safe, “I can beat a 1.4, but not a 1.3. This guy’s a 1.4.” Then you take off for second and you see the pitcher used a slide step. The edge is gone.
When you get invited to see the inner workings of a major-league baseball team (and people are only talking to me so I can talk to you), it’s impressive to find out how well-thought out most of the decision-making is. Like I said, not every move works, but the moves are made because someone has spent a lot of time figuring out which move had the best chance of working at that time.
And I can beat a 4.5 … wind-aided.
Butler
Hosmer
Gordon
Good game. Nice to know we are learning to win the big offense games, but I would like to see us improve on the tight, little offense ones. Your comments on walks speaks to that point. If we can find 4 pitchers who can throw strikes and keep the ball down (Hoch seems to get it now), we will have a winning team in 2012.
One team walks 8, the other strikes out 14. Team that walked 8 wins the game. Didn't see that one coming.
I'm pretty sure some people are trying to use walks to cure cancer - relay for life, etc. - so at least there is a good kind of walk.
Also, I was looking at the standing the other day and noticed the Royals have scored 633 runs this year, which is 9th in all of baseball and more than the Phillies and Brewers who are leading thier respective divisions (without DHs, but still). Our pitching has allowed the 4th worst. If we can get some consistency and control in the rotation we will be dangerous next year.
k offense is coming around but pitching? the guy we traded to the brewers throws strikes and who did we get for him? a ss batting .247. didnt we give up a ss thats batting .255 with more homers this year.. who knows how many close games the royals would have won with zack greinke pitching
When the Yankees and Red Sox were here, I was really impressed with the way their veteran hitters spoiled pitches when they got two strikes on them. Gordon seems to take a lot of borderline pitches for third strikes instead of just trying to get a piece of them. I'd be curious to know if Seitzer considers Gordon above- or below-average at spoiling pitches.
In this game, I was surprised Yost brought the infield in with one out in the bottom of the fifth, the score tied 4-4, Weeks at third, Pennington at second, Willingham (.246 average) at the plate, and DeJesus (.233 average) on deck. It seemed really early to do this. Harden had a lot of strikeouts, but his pitch count was high, so the Royals were going to see an inning or two of middle relief. Weeks is fast, so it might be tough to get him at home if he's going on contact. And Pennington might also score if a slow roller got between the drawn-in infielders or an otherwise routine grounder got past Moustakas or Hosmer down the line. Seemed to me like you concede the run, prevent the crooked number, and count on your offense to score at least two more runs. But I've learned from reading this blog all season that Yost always has a good reason for everything he does. So, I'd be interested to know what he was thinking in this situation. You know, this might be a good topic for a future post: When do you bring the infield in?
Tim: Yes we traded away a pitcher that throws strikes. However he didn't want to be here, so how good would he have been. He has a 4.00 ERA with his present team. Early on before we started to really hit and score runs he would not have done well. The SS we got is far better defensively and has much more up side possibilities offensively. Remember he started out very slow. Don't forget the other people in the trade, two young pitchers and a good Center Fielder. Maybe 3 or 4 more victories this year which would have gotten into 4th place, which we already are now anyway. It's the future that looks bright. I was a big Zack supporter when he was here but all things considered I think this was a win win for both teams.
Joel: I don't know if Ned Yost and Bob McClure would agree, but the biggest thing seems to be throwing low strikes.
Mac said a pitcher that is down can be in the middle of the plate and get away with it. A pitcher that is up needs to be on the corners.
He thought the main problem was pitchers trying to be too fine and missing their spots. Just be down and use the whole plate.
Larry: Yup, 14 strikeouts and 8 walks is not a winning formula...unless you slip in 15 hits at the same time.
Kurt: I think you're seeing what everybody else sees: the defense is better, the lineup is better, the baserunning is better, the pen is better (usually). If the Royals can find some starting pitching (hard to do) they might make a run at it.
And, yes, I guess walks do some good...as long as they're not during a baseball game.
Tim: Larry's right, Zack didn't want to be here, so that decision was influenced by his decision to move on.
And Escobar may be a Gold Glove level shortstop. If he'll buy into Kevin Seitzer's hitting plan for him consistently, he could add offense to his resume. And he is stealing bases.
Blair: Good idea, when Ned's back I'll ask him about his philosophy on bringing the infield in. And you're right, there's always a reason he's doing what he's doing.
It may not be what we would choose to do, but there's always some logic behind it.
I'm assuming, for some reason or another, he saw that run as important. Maybe he thought the A's pen would perform better than they did or maybe he was tring to force bob Melvin to go to the weaker part of the pen when the pitching change came.
If the A's were ahead when Harden came out, Melvin could use his best relievers to secure the win. Tied and maybe he uses someone else. But I'm speculating and could be wrong.
As for Gordon and two strikes: Kevin and I have talked about this and he thinks letting an umpire expand your zone can be destructive over the long haul. He said he was enouraged to expand his zone at one point in his career and felt that hurt his overall pitch selection.
But another good question and I'll ask about it upon their return.
You've talked some on here about how the royals do better in close, low scoriing games where the strength of our bullpen can keep the team in the game manufacturing runs. It seems as if the royals are winning a few more games with lots of hits and runs. Of course you always want as many hits and runs as you can get offensively, but what does this say about this team and how it's developing? Is this just a stretch of good hitting from the team? or is this something they can depend a bit more on going forward?
Luke, I don't see anybody doing anything that they are not capable of doing in the future, and they have now done it pretty consistently over 140 games. If they keep their minds on business, I can see us playing this level of offense for at least another 3-5 years (if not even better given the youth factor).
Lee, great points regarding the running game and the times each guy can beat. You may feel repetitive when giving us this info, but it doesn't get old to read this again as it reinforces the points you're trying to get across to a portion of the Royals' fan base who actually care about the finer points of the game. Also, it was fun to see Escobar take 2 bases back-to-back. I noticed the catcher's throws were both off-line, so maybe that influenced him to go while the "gettin' was good".
Thanks for all the work you put into these blogs.
Luke: Doug Sisson told me the team was designed to score one run at a time. The formula was to grab a lead and tack on runs until you got the ball to Soria. Of course, nobody is complaining when the Royals go off like they did yesterday.
This morning Bob Dutton reported that since Salvador Perez arrived, the Royals have hit .293 as a team. Unfortunately, that number is probably not sustainable.
As of Sunday (the numbers I have in front of me) the Red Sox were leading the league in hitting as a team at .280. I believe Clint Hurdle once told me a team hitting .270 was doing an excellent job (right around where the Royals are), so .293 is probably an "enjoy it while it lasts" hot streak.
Joel: I'd agree that the young hitters should get better with prolonged exposure to big league pitching: at least that's the plan.
Sean: Thanks. Sometimes I'm going to return to a subject (it's inevitable), but I always try to have something new to add.
Talking to the guys and finding out what times they could beat was an added dimension to discussing base stealing.
That's probably the future of this website: I plan to think small. The big events have to get covered and I couldn't do what I'm doing without the efforts of Star reporters Bob Dutton and Terez Paylor.
But that leaves me free to explore the details of the game. When Tim Bogar was here, he encouraged me to think even smaller: pick a play and try to describe every detail.
I think understanding the small things that happen helps a fan understand the big ones. I know it's not for everybody, but for the fans who really want to understand the game, those details provide a much richer experience.
Tim: I have to ditto Larry. Zack didn't want to be here, and Alcides is emerging as a potential perennial All Star Shortstop. The glove is definitely there. The hitting needs some improvement, and and that's not an impossibility given his marked improvement in batting average after a miserable start. Good shortstops are not only hard to find, but rarely hit for power or average. Ozzie Smith rode a .262 career average all the way to the Hall of Fame.
I didn't like losing Zack, but with Escobar, and the promise of Cain and the two young arms that were part of the deal, I have to agree with Lee--it's beginning to look like a win-win trade.
Everybody: The game is on the West Coast and doesn't start until 9:05 tonight. I'll go as late as I can, but don't be surprised if I don't post anything until tomorrow morning.
Thanks.
Come on (Chen) Lee. Sleep is way over rated anyway. Didn't know cartoonist had such strict hours. Just kidding.
Larry: Got to get up at 6 and be funny. Hard to do with 8 hours sleep, much less 4.