Games » Detroit Tigers
Sep1The Royals don't give up
Lee Judge
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OK, if you need a pick-me-up, 5-5 on a road trip against contending teams is pretty good. Losing all five by one-run isn’t fun, but it’s better than being blown out. Coming back in this game about twelve times, after losing two heartbreakers in a row, is another good sign.
Maybe I just need to make myself better because I have to watch them, but I don’t think so. The Royals are playing some pretty interesting baseball, and it’s worth a fan’s time to watch them this September. That way, you won’t be caught by surprise by what they do next year. (I hope, because I’m going to have to watch every game in 2012 also.)
I’d like to think games like this are part of the process they need to go through to become a better team next season. Despite the one-run losses and tough times, the Royals aren’t giving up. Neither should the fans.
The fastball count
OK, what’s a fastball count? Generally it means a count in which the pitcher has to throw a strike and, because the fastball is the easiest pitch to control, it’s the pitch he’ll probably throw. Those counts are 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2.
Unfortunately, for pitchers, hitters also know the fastball counts and those are the counts where they feel they can do some damage. Hitting instructors (at least the ones I know) don’t want hitters trying to hit the ball out of the yard on every pitch. But if the hitter has power, these are the counts where he can look fastball and try to catch the ball out in front.
So pitchers have three options if they want to be successful: 1.) Stay out of fastball counts 2.) Learn to throw something off-speed for a strike in a fastball count or 3.) Throw a helluva fastball in a fastball count.
So what happened to the Royals’ pitchers when they found themselves in a fastball count against the Tigers in this game?
•First inning: Danny Duffy is in a fastball count 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 to leadoff hitter Austin Jackson. Jackson gets the fastball he expects 3-1 and smokes it to Alex Gordon for a lineout. Danny finds himself in another fastball count 3-2 to Miguel Cabrera and throws a curve. Cabrera does not get the fastball he’s expecting and is out in front on the off-speed pitch, a strikeout.
•Second inning: 3-1 fastball to Alex Avila, he rips it foul. Another fastball 3-2, Avila flies out to Alex Gordon. A 2-1 fastball to Jhonny Peralta and Peralta sends it to the warning track in center field (somewhere just south of the Canadian border) and Melky Cabrera runs it down in the big part of the park.
•Third inning: Danny tries a 2-0 change-up, but can’t throw that for a strike, has to go back to the fastball, but doesn’t want to groove one when Ryan Raburn is looking for that pitch. Duffy ends up walking the leadoff hitter. The same thing happens when he falls behind Victor Martinez 2-0. Duffy tries to throw a curve for a strike, misses, and with the count 3-0, the Royals decide to intentionally walk the batter. (Danny threw ball four to the screen; intentional walks actually have to be practiced because pitchers have a hard time finding the right release point.)
•Fourth inning: 2-0 and Danny decides to go the “helluva fastball’ route. He hasn’t had much luck throwing off-speed in this count the last couple of times. Duffy does come up with a helluva fastball, right at the knees and Raburn takes, then goes on to fly out. Danny tries to paint fastballs again 2-0 and 3-0 to Brandon Inge and walks him.
•Fifth inning: 3-1 fastball to Delmon Young results in a hard grounder to Giavotella. Next Duffy gets away with a 2-1 fastball to Miguel Cabrera, then goes back to the curve 3-2 (it worked the last time he found himself in this situation with Miguel) and gets him to roll over for a 6-3 groundball.
•Sixth inning: Aaron Crow now pitching and he’s in a 2-0 fastball count to Austin Jackson. Crow grooves a fastball in this fastball count and Jackson takes. Very interesting: Why wasn’t Austin all over that pitch? The answer might’ve come on the next one: Aaron goes with a 2-1 slider and Jackson homers. I’ve got no way of knowing, but you might suspect that Jackson was sitting on a slider during those two counts and got it on the 2-1 pitch.
•Seventh inning: Louis Coleman on the mound, same deal: In a 2-0 fastball count, Louis throws a slider for a strike and Avila takes, so he wasn’t looking for the slider there. (Avila later went on to single 2-2.
So here’s the deal: When hitters got a fastball in a fastball count, they had a tendency to hit the ball hard somewhere, unless it was a really well-located fastball. When they got an off-speed pitch for a strike in a fastball count, they either took it or had a bad pass at the ball, unless they were looking for it. And if the pitcher couldn’t throw his off-speed stuff for a strike in a fastball count, he quickly found himself in a worse situation.
This pattern was even more pronounced with the Royals’ hitters. They did a lot of their damage when they got fastballs in fastball counts. Next time you watch a game, look for these counts. They often decide the ballgame.
The most important play in baseball
It’s the routine play. Every night I record what I consider outstanding defensive plays and they’re not all outs. Keeping the ball on the infield to prevent a run from scoring, blocking a pitch to keep a runner from advancing or an extraordinary effort to prevent extra bases all count for me. And yet, the Royals still barely average over three outstanding plays a game.
Knock out the plays where the Royals don’t get an out and you could safely say that in a 27-out game, 25 of the plays are fairly routine. That’s what makes it the most important play in baseball. It’s the bread and butter of baseball defense.
The importance of making the routine play was demonstrated when Johnny Giavotella dropped what seemed like a likely double-play ball in the third inning. Johnny had made three outstanding plays in the previous game but didn’t handle this more routine chance.
For some fans, it’s hard to appreciate the unspectacular but steady player. Baseball people don’t share that attitude: They like the great play, but they know they can live without. But they’ve got to have the routine one.
Because it’s the most important play in baseball.
Billy and the blogger
Not long ago, Billy Butler told me about a public appearance that was supposed to include a press conference with the media. The “media” turned out to be one blogger. The blogger wanted Billy to comment on his recent slump. Billy said, “Have you checked out my RBIs?”
As anyone could’ve predicted, when Billy started catching the ball out in front more often (right around the time the team visited Boston), he began to hit for more power, but it affected his batting average and on-base percentage. But he’s now tied for the team lead in RBIs.
Fans can’t have it both ways, no matter how much we’d like to. Give Billy credit for responding to Ned Yost when he said Billy should accept a little less average for a little more production.
Heads-up baserunning
Also give Mike Moustakas credit for ending up on second after his RBI single in the seventh. By advancing to second on the throw, Moose got the Royals an extra run on Johnny Giavotella’s single. Some first basemen neglect to get to the middle of the infield on throws home, and that allows trail runners to advance, knowing the ball can’t be cut.
Eric Hosmer does a great job of this, and you can often see him fake the cut and throw when a ball is headed to the plate, which freezes the trail runner.
Francoeur
Hosmer
Giavotella
An interesting thing about Billy. Before his power surge at Boston, his average was .285 and now it is at .296. So he has gained in average even as his power has increased.
But Roger, the blogistas consider it a slump because his sacred OBP, his on-base percentage, has dropped. I think that it has because he is batting 3rd, ahead of the formidable Hosmer, rather than 5th ahead of less dangerous bats. I also think that Billy is now hot-snot and I appreciate the job that he is doing. He finally has some help and I think he's starting to enjoy that.
Noticed today that Pena has changed his catching stance. I'm guessing it's so he can get lower with the target. On one knee with the other leg out straight to the side. Didn't see enough TV to see if he changed with runners on base, as it looks like it would be harder to block balls in this position.
By the way, games like these are not good for my language or blood pressure, but very satisfying when the final result is a win.
Roger and Jim: Billy told me this story a while ago and, as Jim suggested, I think the main complaint was a drop in on-base percentage. I also think his batting average had dropped a bit at that time.
Larry: Pena moves around quite a bit behind the plate. Some people don't like that, some people don't mind.
I've seen the stance you described, but I don't believe I've ever seen it with runners on base, as it would be difficult to block or throw from.
And, yeah, I thought the game was kind of a mess. Neither team could hold a lead until the Royals got to Coleman, Holland and Soria.
Still, I wanted to give credit to them for fighting back. You lose a couple late and it's easy to get in that "here we go again" mindset.
Despite their record, this team has been able to bounce back consistently. I assume they can see they're not that far away and that helps.
Francoeur has talked about all the one-run losses and his belief that they will learn to win those very soon.
Lee, your first paragraph should be mandatory reading for anyone who considers himself (herself) a true Royals fan.
Joel: Thanks, as in the previous post, I've been struck by the Royals tenacity this season. Seems like the least we could do is follow along.
Heard a comedian once say his dad always said this boy has a lot of quit in him. These Royals don't know the meaning of the word. They respect the game but fear no one.
surprised u didn't comment on how escobar is the first player to strike out on an HBP in 350 years, he seems low on confidence at the plate unlike earlier in the year.
Lee, On my first submarine my navigator said that the good boats "do the routine things routinely." In the last 27 years I've noticed it doesn't just apply to submarines and it takes a lot of hard work to accomplish.
I think your observation about Johnny G's defense is similar to what could be said about Yunkiesky E last year. Look at the difference Alcides makes. Did you do this last year (logging points)? If so, I'd be curious what Yuniesky scored with more offense and less defense.
Certainly the Royals pitchers need to stay out of fast ball counts. But the other day, Frank White said they also need to do a better job of putting guys away when they get ahead 0-2 or 1-2. It seems like Royals pitchers are giving up a lot of hard hit balls on these counts, and they're letting a lot of batters work the count to 3-2 (running up their pitch counts in the process). It might be interesting to keep track of the Royals pitchers' 0-2 and 1-2 efficiency. I'll bet this is one of the reasons for Chen's success. When he gets ahead, he doesn't waste a lot more pitches on the guy. Chen knows the batter has to expand his zone, so he throws something the guy can't afford to take, but also something the guy either swings and misses at or puts weakly in play.
Donovan: Yeah, I don't know what's up with Escobar, but it seems like he's not going the other way as much as he did when he was hitting well.
If he's waiting longer in an attempt to go to the right side (which he probably ought to be doing with two strikes) you wouldn't think he'd be swinging at that pitch.
I'll see what Kevin Seitzer has to say.
Mark: I agree, the 'routine' is greatly under-appreciated. It means practicing something to the point that doing it is no big deal, but practice doesn't make perfect, perfect practice makes perfect.
And a lot of people don't have the patience to go over something again and again in precisely the same way.
But that's what it takes to be able to calmy accomplish a task in an emergency. And I'm guessing submarine emergencies are a little more critical than baseball emergencies.
George: Yes, we did this last year and Yuniesky finished on top. One of the things you eventually notice when doing this system is some people rise toward the top at the end of the year that might surprise you.
But then you look at who played the most and it makes sense. The system rewards consistency: as Ron Polk put it, part of being good is actually playing. Being good and hurt doesn't help anybody.
You don't get points for just standing on the field though, you have to do something positive and if you do something negative, playing can hurt your point total.
Last season the leaders going down the stretch were Betancourt, Kendall and Butler (the three players who had played their spots all season). Kendall got hurt and Yuniesky contributed more than Butler defensively on the bases and on defense and wound up on top.
Look at this season and you'll see the same thing: the points leaders are the guys who have played all season and played both offense and defense.
The system doesn't try to tell you who the best player is, it tries to tell you who contributed the most and those aren't always the same thing.
Blair: I think you're right about those 0-2 and 1-2 counts and I'll bring that up with Bob McClure as soon as I get a chance.
I assume the other pitchers are trying to do what Bruce has done effectively: throw a borderline pitch that isn't good to hit, but too close to take.
But they're missing in the zone or out of the zone by too big a margin.
Lee, You've said it before and it bears repeating, especially now that everyone is in a lather about the Chiefs, this roster of young players are making this, their team. They don't care about the years of futility, the Mike Jacobs, the Kevin McReynolds, that passed through here on their way to obscurity. This is their team and their time is nigh. If you ever were a part of a winning team, if you ever played the game, you can feel the shift in attitude at the K. I don't know how Dayton is going to find the pitching we need but he's done well otherwise. I believe and for the rest of the believers, our reward is going to be the next 5-6 years of truly competitive Royals baseball.
Ben: Everyone who should know, and some of them have been pretty skeptical in the past, thinks the Royals are on the verge.
But finding that starting pitching is going to be a trick.
Lee, wondering if you saw or read this report out of ESPN on technology in baseball: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6908844/information-age-changing-way-game-played
Not to give you a bunch of reading or anything, but you talked about fastball counts and that was a part of this article. It seems like it is really changing the game, and I have mixed feelings about the effectiveness of endless information--but it's hard to argue with in a lot of ways. Anyway, I was wondering where the Royals are on all of this, how much they use technology or if they're more old school (or behind the times you could say).
Thought this was an interesting topic very pertinent to the nature of this blog. Thanks.
Luke: Yes, I saw that story and thought it was really interesting. I'm going to ask about the use of technology when I'm in the clubhouse this weekend.
Something you mentioned a month or two back was that Seitzer is in the computer room during games constantly watching the feeds. When he spots something, he'll call the player in to look at it and make an adjustment, whether mechanical or approach. Later in games, opposing pitcher starts warming up, adjustments for him are looked at.
Jim: A lot of what the coaches show or tell me is off the record: why let the other team know what you know?
But from what I can see, the Royals are not ignoring advances in technology and information.
Of course, knowing the hitter will chase a slider down and away with two strikes isn't the same as excuting a slider down and away with two stikes.
I was very much in favor of bring up Gio. It is imperative that the Royals know what they have going into the off season.. I am a little surprised to hear talk of Getz being a utility player next year. Does that mean the Royals have seen enough to determine he is next years second baseman?
Gary: I assume you mean Giavotella. No, I haven't heard anybody say that Johnny is next year's second baseman (they might be saying it, just not around me.)
I think trying Getz as a utility player is just a way to see what options they have in the future.