Games » Toronto Blue Jays
Aug24Walks that score
Lee Judge
None
When we were putting together this website, I asked Tim Bogar, the third-base coach for the Boston Red Sox, for advice. Among other suggestions, he advised me to keep track of walks or hit batters who score. He said I would be amazed at the damage they do. Wednesday night’s game is a perfect example. Two of the Royals’ three runs came from Alex Gordon after Gordon got on base by being hit by a pitch and taking a base on balls.
One of the Blue Jays’ four runs came after Royals starter Luke Hochevar hit Yunel Escobar with a pitch and then gave up a bomb to Jose Bautista. (By the way, that scenario made two observations seems timely: Yunel was hit when he dove to the outside corner and Hoch came inside. Bautista hit the home run when Luke went to the slide step and left a slider up. Both possibilities have been brought up on this website in the last few days. I’m not saying I told you so, but I’m coming dang close.)
On the other hand, Brett Lawrie’s triple came on a pitch where Luke didn’t use the slide step, so it’s not the only time Hochevar leaves a pitch up. Walks and hit batters who scored didn’t do all the damage in the game, but they made the difference.
Some other stuff
• The Blue Jays are pitching Jeff Francoeur in, just like a lot of other teams. They want him to get out in front, pull the ball foul and then open up the outer half. If the Blue Jays pitchers get the pitch in on their hands, they can get him. But if they get the pitch in and down, Frenchy is very good at dropping the bat head and golfing the pitch.
• The infield defense can play deeper on the turf because the ball gets there faster. Second baseman Johnny Giavotella made a terrific play to get Adam Lind, and he was halfway out to Francoeur in right field when he caught the ball. That also was a nice bit of pitching by Hochevar. They’ve got the defense swung around to the pull side for the left-handed Lind, so when you see that 4-3 in the box score, it’s all part of a plan.
• Mike Moustakas had two hits, one clean and the other caused by Jays left fielder Eric Thames not taking charge on a pop fly. Moose’s defensive problems (he had two errors) came from two fundamental mistakes. He didn’t throw at the head of Eric Hosmer (or if he did he missed by a long way), and he didn’t get his hands out in front. The head is right smack dab in the middle of the arms and the right target for most throws, and if the hands aren’t out in front on grounders, your head moves when the ball arrives and you lose track of its flight.
• I don’t know if catcher Salvador Perez was thinking along these lines, but trying to pick off Yunel Escobar after Escobar got hit by that pitch was a smart move. Any time players or teams get upset, running a play that takes advantage of their emotional state is a good bet. They’re not thinking clearly. Take advantage.
Did Hosmer come off the bag on the Moustakas throw Tuesday night?
If he didn’t Tuesday night, Hos probably did some other time. Here’s the deal: One of the tricks first baseman use to get calls is coming off the bag early. You can buy your infielders a few inches on the throw.
The trick works if you pop off the bag and throw the ball around the infield every time you get an out. And then one night, you pop off early. Umpires at first watch the runner’s feet and listen for the pop of the ball in the first baseman’s mitt. Whichever one happens first determines the call. If the first baseman can come off the bag just slightly, the umpire might make the call he was trained to. The pop beat the foot. The runner’s out.
Of course, smart umpires know the tricks of smart first baseman and try not to get fooled. In this case, Hosmer probably didn’t come off the bag early, but it was close.
Winning on the road
The Royals are in the middle of a brutal road trip, and the other day, manager Ned Yost was getting asked about why teams play better at home than on the road. He meandered around a bit, but eventually came to what seems to me to be the main reason. You can build your team to suit the place you play. If you’ve got a giant outfield, you should have fast outfielders. If it’s a small park, you should have power hitters. If you build your team correctly, you should have an advantage at home.
The other thing is familiarity. You should know how your ball park plays and have an advantage.
The third reason teams play better at home is rarely discussed by professional athletes and is best illustrated by yet another Clint Hurdle story:
I was taking a men’s amateur team to a national tournament for the first time, and I wanted to talk to Clint about handling pitchers. How many innings, how many days rest, how many pitches could a reliever throw and still be used the next day?
We got on the plane, and shortly before landing in Phoenix, the pilot got on the intercom and said, “The plane has been drunk dry. There is no more alcohol, and you can all thank the Kansas City Rockies.” And that was just the beginning. My center fielder was so hammered the night before a double header he had to support himself against a wall. My left-handed reliever was searching for a bigger drinking glass … and he was drinking bourbon.
As you might have guessed, we had a lousy tournament. Afterward, Clint called me and asked how things had gone. “Have you ever seen one of those old Westerns where the Indians get into the firewater and go nuts? That was my team.”
Clint was laughing pretty hard and said, “So you found out it’s hard to win on the road.”
“Is that what that’s about?”
“Lee, when you’re at home, your players are at home! When you’re on the road, you don’t know where they are.”
I’m not accusing the Royals — or any other athletes — of partying their way out of a win, but if it happened, it wouldn’t be the first time.
A bird in the hand
(As I’ve already mentioned, my son Paul is going to take over for me occasionally later this month. I’ve encouraged him to write some things for the site, and here’s his first effort.)
In the bottom of the third with two outs, Blue Jays second baseman Mike McCoy hit a shot to left-center field that looked like trouble. Even with catcher J.P. Arencibia on first, a double to the gap with two outs probably would score Arencibia and cut the Royals’ 2-0 lead (at the time) in half. Gordon and Cabrera both charged the gap, and Melky ended up getting there just in time.
I didn’t think the catch deserved to be awarded an outstanding defensive play, but it was noteworthy for a few reasons. Despite Melky’s offensive consistency, questions have been raised about his range in center field
On this play, Melky caught what would have been a two-out, one-run double from McCoy and ended the third inning. And Melky made another outstanding play to end the Blue Jays’ three-run bottom of the fourth.
Melky’s defense may not be perfect , but that doesn’t mean he can’t get the job done. While a lot of Kansas City fans clamor for Will Meyers and Lorenzo Cain to be brought up, I am reminded of the old saying, “A bird in the hand … .” Sure, bring up Meyers and Cain and see how they develop, but sacrifice Melky and his excellent bat for the sake of players who might one day be good?
With Jeff Francoeur re-signing this week and Alex Gordon in left, the corner outfield positions seem pretty much set for the next few years. Can we really afford to sacrifice Melky’s bat? You can’t move him to any other position, and the Royals can’t bump Billy Butler at DH.
Of course, Melky’s catch of McCoy’s line drive in the third doesn’t mean there aren’t shortcomings in his defensive game, but it does show you that he is capable of tracking down and catching a hard-hit ball in a big left-center gap.
So Melky’s not a perfect player, but between his 74 RBIs, 16 homers, .300-plus average and 12 outfield assists, he’s damn good. And do you wanna bet on a guy who’s damn good or a couple guys that are unknown?
Pickoff attempts at first base with Royals Eric Hosmer
Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer demonstrates to Lee Judge how to set up for a pickoff at first base. July 22, 2011 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Gordon
Butler
Escobar
Great first effort by Paul. That's something that needs to be talked about more in this town right now regarding the Royals: Both how great of a pick up Melky has turned out to be, and a push to have the Royals lock him up for the near future. I realize there's a lot that goes into that consideration on the Royals part, especially because Melky is really driving up his market value right now, but I feel like he's proven his value to this team. While guys like Will Meyers and Lorenzo Cain aren't even proven commodities yet. I'd love to hear any more thoughts you or other fans have on whether you think the Royals should sign Melky before he becomes a free agent this offseason, but from one Royal fan, I think they should.
Nathan, I agree the Melky discussion is an interesting one. I am torn on the issue for the reasons stated by Paul. However, this team may need starting pitching more than it needs a known commodity in CF. If Melky has, as you say, driven up his market value (and I completely agree that he has), wouldn't this off-season be the best time to package him up with a top prospect or two for a true number 1 type pitcher? With Gordon and Frenchy on the corners, I'm not as concerned with a less proven commodity in CF - especially if we could lock down a bona fide front of the rotation starter. Will look forward to reading Lee and Paul's responses - as well as those of the readers on this site.
Again, nobody is trading us a good starting pitcher unless we trade the equivalent of our starting shortstop, a ML ready or AAAA OF, and 2 top pitching prospects which is what we got for Greinke after a subpar year and his other baggage. And Greinke had a semi-no-trade clause and had to approve the trade and only did because the Brewers were contenders. So do you want to trade Esky or Gio with Cain or Melky and 2 of our top pitching prospects that were both recent #1 draft choices. We only got Jeffries in the deal because he had some baggage. Somebody please tell me when the last time a good starting pitcher got traded other than when he had impending free agency and a contender was willing to give up good prospects and sacrfice the future for the present. Do you want to trade Hosmer and Bubba?
Paul, Great first effort. Couldn't agree more about Melky. I just think that us Royals fans are so conditioned to having losing teams and players of Melky's talent want to leave that we just want to see them traded before its too late to get anything of value from them. I was initially in this group that wanted to see them trade Melky but I think he brings more value to the team over the course of next season, when I think this team will be much better, as a proven major league veteran who has played on numerous winning teams and knows what it takes to compete and win on a daily basis.
With that being said, Rick is absolutely correct. What we have to give up to get a legit #2 starter is the same as what we got in the Greinke deal. Maybe it is worthwhile to look at a deal that sends a team like the Angels, who always covet young players, a player like Wil Meyers AND Cain to go along with maybe a John Lamb or something for Dan Haren? Or the same group of minor leaguers to the Giants for, say, Matt Cain. Just some thoughts.
Guys: As usual I'll make my "I-don't-know-much-about-GM-issues" disclaimer: the complexities of budgets and contracts and how all the pieces fit together are beyond me, so I try to stick to what happens between the white lines.
But between those white lines I agree with Paul. Every player has to be looked at as a whole: you can't obsess about Alcides Escobar's offense and forget his defense and the reverse goes for Melky Cabrera.
Melky's range has been questioned: is he a true centerfielder or should he be in a corner? I totally agree with Paul's conclusion that he'd rather stick with a known commodity than take a risk on someone who hasn't done it consistently at the major league level. But we're both ignoring all the other GM-type issues when we say that, like how much would Melky want to stay and what would that mean for the payroll.
I also agree with the sentiment that fans tend to over-value what our players are worth in a trade. Starting pitching is THE deal and nobody has enough.
If an ace is available a lot of teams will be interested because there just aren't that many of them around.
So do you partially dismantle what you've created to get one or do you try to develop one in your system?
Or maybe they can raise prices at Wal-Mart.
It's incorrect to assume that we would have to give up just what we got when we made the Greinke trade. Greinke was a Cy-Young winner and clear head above #1 starter. If we were looking at a solid #2 starter, the price wouldn't be quite so high.
That being said, there aren't a lot of options out there and teams rarely want to trade away a good starter. Starting pitching will be a project for this team, which is why I don't see them seriously contending next year. If you convert a couple arms, that takes awhile. John Lamb lost a year to injury, it will take him longer now. The pitching free agency is weak this offseason, but better the next (isn't it exciting though to even imagine the Royals might be buyers on good pitchers during a free-agency in the near future).
All the exciting youth will have another year to develop, and we may even hang around the top of the AL Central. But unless we get some surprising play out of a prospect or converted reliever, AND have a surprisingly good season from a starter (like Chen this year), throw in an improved Hochevar (post all-star break), then the Royals have a good shot at the Central in 2012.
I am curious to hear what other readers think of Will Meyers. I saw him play in Arkansas this summer, and I just didn't see it. I understand he is just learning the outfield so I won't judge him too harshly on the mis-played balls, but he looked awfully thin and overmatched at the plate. What am I missing?
I've never seen Meyers play so I can't be of any help. I will say that most people who have been around the game a long time suggest they need to see 40-50 games to form a worthwhile opinion.
Which, of course, is a big pain in the neck, but keeps you from jumping to conclusions. And even then you can still be wrong.
I guess that's what I'm looking for; has anyone here watched Meyers for an extended period? I don't trust my one-time exposure, but I assume there are some NE Arkansas fans that follow your blog.
Jeffry: How about if I ask for a rundown on Meyers from the guys in the organization once they get back in town?
Someone should have a pretty good idea of what Meyers brings to the table.
Thanks, Lee, that would be great. Seems like we always hear that the Royals should do this or that with the current team because of the players coming up, but we really know very little about them (kind of back to the theme of a bird in the hand versus two in the bush). It would be good to know what the Royals, who are the ones actually making the decisions, think about the strengths and weaknesses are of those prospects.
As always, great column!
Jeffry: Thanks, glad you're enjoying the site. I agree, we only see a few numbers and form impressions on very little evidence.
Hearing from the guys who have seen the prospects play and know their strengths and limitations would help everyone, including me.
Luke, I think to say Greinke is a Top notch #1 is overstating it a bit. He had that one really great year two seasons ago and then followed it up last year with an uneven year while finishing with a 4.17 ERA. This year he actually is sporting a WORSE ERA so far with the Brewers, a 4.22 ERA. As a matter of fact, before two years ago he only had 1 season in which his ERA was UNDER 3.50. I honestly think Greinke is no more than a solid #2 or fantastic #3 starter. Like Lee said, we tend to OVERVALUE our own players. Greinke was CLEARLY OUR #1 starter but not a #1 starter for the league.