Games » New York Yankees
Aug16Fourth-inning breakdown
Lee Judge
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Ask just about anyone what the biggest hit was in this game and they would go with Robinson Cano’s fourth-inning three-run home run, which came at the end of a 12-pitch at-bat. The ball was hit so hard and so far that Royals outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera just turned and watched to see whether it would kill a spectator.
Ask* me* what the biggest hit in this game was, and I probably would say the same thing, but I also would say don’t ignore Brett Gardner’s bunt single that led off the fourth inning. I thought it was a great move. The Royals had taken a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the third. They scored three runs, hit for the cycle (Escobar tripled, Cabrera homered, Butler singled and Francoeur doubled) and ran up Yankee starter Ivan Nova’s pitch count.
If Royals starter Danny Duffy could have thrown a shutdown inning at the Yanks in the top of the fourth, the Royals could have gotten Nova right back on the mound, and they might be able to get Nova out of the game after five innings. If the Royals had a lead at that point, they would have had a shot at middle relief and maybe a shot at a win.
Duffy cruised through the first inning, had a long inning in the second, but gave up no runs and had another long inning in the third, giving up three runs. The top of the fourth was Danny’s chance to right the ship. Go 1-2-3 in the fourth, come out with a pitch count less than 80 and Duffy would have had a shot at five or six innings pitched and a win.
Then Brett Gardner laid down a bunt.
Duffy just missed fielding it. Gardner was on first, and Duffy was right back in the stretch with Derek Jeter coming to the plate. In one move, the Royals went from being in control of the situation to knowing they had another hard inning in front of them. It’s what you think any time the leadoff man gets on.
So Jeter’s at the plate. Remember the thing I said yesterday that the Royals were going to play him to go the other way and if any ball got hit between Alex Gordon and the left field line it would be because a pitcher had made a mistake with an off-speed pitch? Well, call me for stock tips because I think I can predict the future. Duffy threw a 77 mph curveball that stayed in the zone down and in. Jeter smoked it into the left-field corner for a double.
Gardner scored, but the Royals still had the lead. Then the Yankees’ Curtis Granderson laid down a sacrifice bunt to move Jeter to third. Royals catcher Salvador Perez decided to try to get the lead runner out, didn’t get Jeter and the whole inning broke down from there. Mark Teixeira singled, Cano homered and the Royals would never have the lead again.
And it all started with a bunt single.
Why I like bunts
I know that a successful bunt supposedly makes it less likely that a team will score a run. OK, I don’t actually know that, but people say it and I’m too lazy to do the math myself, so I guess I have to accept it. But the two bunts that the Yankees laid down in the fourth inning of this game demonstrate what bunts can do to a defense.
First, bunting for a hit. Let’s say you have 600 at-bats (we’re going to say that so I can do the math in my head) and you get 200 hits. You had a great year. You hit .333 and probably scored a lot and drove in a lot of runs. You also made 400 outs.
In fact, making outs is what hitters mainly do. When a batter goes to the plate, the odds are always in favor of making an out. So how about making some productive outs? And how about making some outs that change where the defense will have to stand the next time you come to the plate? I don’t know of a number that reveals how many hits were created by previous bunt attempts, but the number ain’t zero.
Second, sacrifice bunts. Once again, the defenders have to change where they stand. The pitcher has to change what he throws. Everyone is on edge and uncomfortable. Once the bunt is down, the defense is forced to make some decisions. In this game, Perez was forced to make a split-second decision, and he made the wrong one.
Never bunting, never stealing, never putting on the hit and run are the safe decisions. I’m not sure they always are the right decisions.
The closer in the non-save situation
If you didn’t hear Jeff Montgomery talk about this on TV over the weekend, it’s worth repeating. Closers in non-save situations often struggle. The general consensus has been that they need the adrenaline rush of a close game to perform at their best. Jeff Montgomery has a more logical explanation.
Closers in non-save situations often are asked to throw nothing but fastballs. “Hey, we’re up or down by six. Just lay it in there. Let them hit the ball. We’ll catch a few and all go home.” (Monty said this pretty much sucks because it is the closer’s ERA that is getting blown up while he’s trying to be a team player.)
Closers in save situations use all their pitches and are more effective. I don’t know about you, but that explanation makes a hell of a lot more sense to me.
Mitch stays ready
Mitch Maier was taking ground balls early Tuesday afternoon at third base. (He briefly played that position in the minors.) When he came off the field, I asked him what was up. Mitch said that if his role is coming off the bench, then he wants to be as useful as possible. He can play all three outfield positions. He has played some third base. He has caught, and he’s working on first.
And we know the dude can pitch.
The speed of the game
I finally spent some time talking to second baseman Johnny Giavotella. When he first came up to the big leagues, Johnny was getting swarmed by media and had his family to deal with, so I told him I would leave him alone for a while.
On Tuesday, he was sitting in front of his locker signing baseballs, so it seemed like a good time to get his impressions of big-league life. What stood out about playing in the major leagues, compared with the minors?
“The speed of the game.”
That doesn’t just mean pitch velocity (although Johnny confirmed Mike Moustakas’ impression that there are no easy at-bats in the big leagues). It also means foot speed, the speed of the batted balls, even the speed with which opposing pitchers adjust to a new hitter. Paul Splittorff once told me that hitters used to get a trip around the league where everyone threw fastballs to find out whether the new guy could hit a major-league fastball.
Johnny said that the pitchers had adjusted him by the second series. He said that Tampa Bay went after him with off-speed stuff, so now he as to adjust again. Once he does, the league will adjust again.
Speedily.
Francoeur
Perez
Cabrera
Lee, what's up with the outfielders? Beginning about a week ago, Gordon and Melky started having accuracy troubles seemingly overnight. Perhaps they are just coming back to orbit after playing gold glove defense the first 2/3rds of the year? I hope this is just a rough patch and they are able to get right back to the way they were playing.
Should Escobar get a mental mistake on the Gardner bunt? It looked like he didn't cover second when Giavotella came in to get the ball. Gardner might have been able to take an extra base.
Regular but occasional bunting is also important in that the defense is disrupted just knowing that you WILL bunt. How differently will a defense play knowing that the guy at the plate is fast and a good drag bunter
Don: I don't know about the outfielders and their throwing, maybe it's the law of averages catching up.
I do know that they feel throwing at the beginning of every series helps them stay in practice and they couldn't get that done on Monday because of the rain.
Blair: Good eyes, I was watching Giavotella. (I've got TV producer Kevin Shank's number, do you think if I call him he's run the replays I need to see?)
But I'd guess there was little chance of Gardner advancing before Esky could get to second. Gardner was going full speed straight ahead and any turn would be a wide one.
Even on an overthrow, assuming Perez was going his job and backing up the play, there would be plenty of time to get Gardner at second.
But you're right, standing around on a baseball field is not a good idea.
Matt: Tim Bogar made that very point to me: if a player will bunt even two times during a season the Red Sox have to take that into account and position their defense accordingly.
Suddenly that backhand grounder fielded by the third baseman is a double down the line.
POSSIBLE LATE POSTING ALERT!!!
Speaking of Tim Bogar, he'll be in town tonight with the Red Sox. Depends on his schedule, but if the posting is late the next couple mornings you'll know Bogie and I went out the night before.
Lee, I heard Monty's comments, too, and I agree 100% about the closers in a non-save situation. I immediately thought of you when he said it and wondered if you would say something about it. Are the TV people doing a better job of analysis now that you are writing your column, or am I just getting better at really listening to what they are saying after reading your blogs this season? Also, do you know if Joe Posnanski reads your blog? You are my two favorites, and I would love to hear you discuss the value of bunting and other "small ball" techniques.
Thanks for your work
One thing fans might overlook in last night's mess was the + job Billy Butler did running. Although he will never be fast, he ran as hard as he could on the scoring play and on the passed ball. He also busted his butt to first on his ground out. Fans should appreciate these efforts since they haven't consistently been there in the past.
Jeffry: I don't know who's is influencing who, but I'm sure I've learned more from Montogomery, Frank White and Paul Splittorff than they learned from me.
I think we all influence each other to some degree and after appearing on the pregame show they might comment on something I've noticed.
And it might just be you: comments that went by unnoticed in the past make an impression now.
And, no, I don't know if Joe reads my blog. I'm guessing he's got bigger fish to fry these days.
Joel: You're right about Billy's base running and in fact he got some system points for that last night.
It was one of the things on my list that I didn't get to, but his advance on a wild pitch, which wasn't routine, helped score a run later.
And his 'Country Breakfast' didn't prevent him from scoring from first on Hosmer's double.
i didn't get to watch the game, but i was following it online--so i'm not sure my comment will be the most informed. but how about more than just one at bat of the game, i felt like perhaps a big turning point was the bottom of the 2nd. duffy had a long inning in the second but managed to escape it without giving up any runs (the bases were loaded i believe). the bottom of the order came up (or maybe 6,7,8), and had a quick 123 inning. that brought duffy back up to the mound right away without any break after the stress from before. i think that made a big difference why the 3rd went the way it did (most of the 3 if not all the runs were with 2 outs), and subsequently the 4th.
there are a lot of points in a baseball game that make it go a certain way, but i thought that was one example kind of on the flip side of what you were saying about duffy not getting a quick inning.
So I carp about Billy watching first pitch strikes go by, and he pounced on three of them last night~ shows how much I know. Billy must be a fan of your blog!
I loved the meeting they had on the mound the 2nd time Yost went out for a chat. Gio "Those were strikes!" Perez "Explenitive yeah they were strikes." Duffy " grumble curse word." Moose" Don't worry about it big guy, throw it in the funnel".
Hell of a moment on the TV there, all the rookies on the mound in a battle with the Yankees. Yost walk the ump back to the plate, gets tossed, then gets his money's worth.
If they can stick together this team is really going to be something, I really believe that.
Luke: Good point and I should've made it myself. Duffy had a 21-pitch inning in the 2nd, no runs and left the bases loaded as you recalled.
If my scorebook's correct, Giavotella made an out on the first pitch, Perez made an out on the second pitch he saw, Moustakas (already scuffling) had to take two strikes to prolong the inning and made an out on the 7th pitch of the inning.
Duffy was right back out there and gave up three runs. These are the details that baseball games turn on.
Rick: Different days, different game plans. Billy says Colon will give him a lot of fastballs tonight and rely on movement to get away with it. If Billy gets one out over the plate, he'll pull the trigger.
Lee
Spot on about the 4th inning. To me, even bigger than Cano's HR was giving the Yankees an extra out that inning by Perez throwing to third on Granderson's bunt. Granderson ended up scoring on Cano's HR. The Royals are not good enough to give teams like this an extra out/baserunner and opportunities to score runs.
Obviously there were other things like Texeria's play to end the 6th that pretty much let the air out of the balloon and Crow still not being able to throw strikes, but mental mistakes are killers at this level.
Devan
Devan: Absolutely, the Royals have to play smart baseball to have a chance and giving the Yankees extra outs won't work.