Games » Chicago White Sox
Aug12The hardest inning in baseball
Lee Judge
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In my never ending quest to get fans to pay attention to the seemingly routine things that win ball games when done well and lose them when done poorly, let us turn our attention to Louis Coleman. So, why Louis Coleman? Well, Jason Kendall recently told me that the hardest inning to get through is the 7th.
Here’s his reasoning: most bullpens have at least two good arms, the set-up man in the 8th and the closer in the 9th. So a starter that throws seven innings with a lead keeps everything in order: he hands the ball to the two best relievers and if they do their job, game over. When a starter fails to go seven, now the ball goes to middle relief. Lots of games are won or lost in the 6th or 7th inning when the starter leaves after five. Fans who only pay attention in the last couple of innings might be missing the most important part of the ball game.
So when Louis Coleman came into the game to start the 7th I was paying attention. Coleman only had a two-run lead, but if he got through the 7th he could turn the ball over to some combination of Crow, Holland and Soria. (On the other hand, right now, Louis might be pitching better than anyone but Holland — and Mitch Maier.) Anyway, Coleman got through the 7th inning, turned a lead over to Greg Holland, Melky hit a three-run bomb (did that make you nervous, too?) and the Royals won.
But I just wanted us to take a moment to appreciate the guy who pitched the hardest inning in baseball.
And now, criticism of Louis Coleman
You walk Juan Pierre? The guy’s hit one home run. It’s bad to walk anybody, but walking a singles hitter is even worse. A home run hitter can take you out of the park, but the worst thing a singles hitter is probably going to do is hit a single and you’re giving him that. And walking a fast singles hitter is even worse: they can turn that walk into a double with a steal. Still, nice job getting the Royals through the 7th.
Oh, and Bruce Chen gave out too many free passes also. It’s what got his pitch count up and made Louis Coleman pitch the 7th.
How defense saved two runs, maybe
Paul Konerko was the runner on both these plays and he’s playing hurt so maybe he doesn’t score anyway, but it’s good to recognize how defense prevents runs in ways that never show up in the box score.
In the 1st inning Konerko’s on second with two outs when A.J. Pierzynski hits a single to right. Two outs means the runner gets a better jump since he doesn’t have to wait to see if the ball is caught. But with Salvadore Perez behind the plate, the gimpy Konerko probably had a shorter lead at second. The White Sox watch ESPN, too, and are probably aware Perez picked off runners in Tampa Bay.
So Konerko probably gets a bad jump from a shortened lead and the ball is hit to Jeff Francoeur. Word of his arm has reached Tibetan monks in the Himalayas, so Konerko is held up at third and never scores. I realize Konerko might not have scored anyway, but having two good throwing arms, which were never used, came into play. And that will never show up in any statistic.
The other run that was prevented by good defense was in the 8th. This time Konerko scorched the ball down the left field line and Alex Gordon went sliding into the corner to cut the ball off. If it got past Gordo it was an easy double, even for Konerko. So the runner was on first instead of second. Greg Holland threw a pitch in the dirt and Salvadore Perez blocked it. Holland threw another one in the dirt and Perez blocked it again.
Do the math and Konerko would’ve been on second without Gordo’s play, on third without Perez’s first block and home without Perez’s second block. Good defense saved two runs and prevented the score from being 2-2 going into the 9th.
How the Royals lost one
I don’t like to be overly critical of third-base coaches. They’ve got one of the hardest jobs in baseball and get criticized far too much for logical decisions. But I still didn’t like Eddie Rodriguez holding up Alcides Escobar in the 7th inning. With one out Esky was on first, Gordon doubled to the left-center gap and Juan Pierre fielded the ball. Pierre does not have a strong arm and was moving laterally as he picked the ball up. He threw flat-footed from deep in the outfield and replays appeared to show Escobar touching third at about the same time.
I was surprised Eddie didn’t send him. After that, Melky Cabrera popped up, Billy Butler was intentionally walked and Eric Hosmer, whose numbers against lefties aren’t impressive, grounded out.
Rushing to judgment
As I’ve said, and been told, repeatedly, it takes a while to figure out a guy’s game. Johnny Giavotella has made a good first impression with his hitting, he’s very short to the ball. (That means not much backswing, which means not very far to go to get back to the ball, which means waiting longer, which means better pitch selection.)
But we’re starting to get a more complete picture of his defense. He made two errors on a fairly routine play and may have cost Alex Gordon another outfield assist when he went for a high tag to the body of Juan Pierre instead of taking the glove to the bag and letting Pierre tag himself out.
Ned Yost, who doesn’t do that much substituting late in the game, had apparently seen enough to want Chris Getz on the field after Giavotella had his last at-bat.
That quick pitch
Speaking of rushing to judgment, bad call on that “quick pitch” ruling by home plate umpire Mike Everitt. The rule is to prevent a pitcher from delivering the ball before the batter is ready, that’s dangerous. Once the batter is set, he can’t be quick pitched. Otherwise, every slide step is a quick pitch.
Billy’s bomb
Billy Butler had a dry spell in Tampa Bay and hit a bomb in Chicago. If he hits for more power that means hitting the ball out in front and if he does that it means he’ll get fooled more often and he won’t be as consistent. Get used to it, and be careful what you wish for.
Cabrera
Butler
Chen
Was glad to see Getz playing defense in the 9th. Gio's defense is suspect. I wonder if he will hit enough to offset Getz's glove and the little things he does with the bat to win games. Coleman and Holland are the go-to guys in the bull pen in the second half. Might allow us to move Crow back to starting next year, especially if we don't resign Chen.
It's easy to fall in love with offense. Defense, smart base running and good-decision making don't jump out of the box score at you.
I've said it before, you have to watch Chris Getz closely to appreciate what he does for a baseball team because no stat is going to knock you over.
Maybe Johnny Giavotella will make a few more people appreciate Chris Getz.
Lee, I was also surprised Rodriguez did not send Esky in the 7th inning. This is a recent pattern of overly conservative 3b coaching the last 3 weeks or so. I hate to see guys thrown out at the plate as much as anyone, but lately we have been scuffling for runs and a little risk is warranted.
Interesting analysis about the 7th inning being the hardest inning of the game. I'd agree with Kendall that it may be an important inning, but I have a hard time believing it is harder than the high-wire (without a net) act of the ninth in a one-run game.
Regarding Gia v Getz, I want to see a lot more of Gia. If he does not improve his defense considerably, he'll have to be a .320 hitter to compensate (possible, but not likely). I'd take slightly better defense than he's displayed to this point with his bat, but I also don't mind Getz as a late inning replacement. I've always thought Chris was a nice utility guy - just never thought he was a regular.
When assigning points to the players--I would have given Escobar a "heads up" baserunning point when he advanced to an "uncovered" third on Gordon's "bloop" single over shortstop. Did he not get a point because of the homerun with the assumption that he would have scored from second on Cabrera's home run?
Love the "Tibetan Monks" analogy--your writing style is appreciated and enjoyed.
Maier has filthy stuff.
On replacing Giavotella with Getz: Yost wouldn't pinch hit for Escobar earlier in the season because Escobar needed to learn to hit in those pressure situations. Why doesn't the same apply to Giavotella's defense? How is he going to get better if he isn't allowed to work in those game situations? Every indication is that he is a hard worker, so why is Yost pulling him for defense after such a short time?
Don: When you're scuffling for runs and/or the pitching is good one of the answers is to push it on the base paths.
Most of the time I've been in agreement with Eddie Rodriguez and that's a very hard job over there. But there have been a couple of instances lately where I thought he could've pushed it a little more.
And I think Kendall's point was that the 7th inning is the hardest for the team, not the individual. Taking nothing away from the closer and how tough that role is (Ron Polk thought a save was worth as much as a win), but the closer should be the best you have.
The 7th (and sometimes the 6th) is being pitched by middle relievers and games can get away quite easily. I just thought it was worth drawing people's attention to a spot in the game that often gets taken for granted.
Finally, I'd have to see a lot more of Giavotella to have a worthwhile opinion. My point was we all need to slow down when judging players. Johnny hits a home run and some people say, "That's it, he's better than Getz" when there's so much more to the game, especially around second.
I like Chris's game a lot, but I don't know if he's a utility player. When Aviles got sent out Chris briefly thought hewas the backup shortstop and told me it had been a while. People wonder about his arm strength.
I've never seen him at short or third, but he did pitch in high school. Not sure that means he's got a major league shortstop's arm though. Eric Hosmer told me he thought Alcides Escobar was in the upper 90s with some of his throws over to first.
I understand the point on passed balls saving runs, but if a never happens you can't assume b and c would have. Holland wouldn't have thrown the same pitches with a man on second as he did with a man in first, and certainly not the same sequence with a guy on third. Good defensive plays, decreasing the chances that a run could score? You bet. But it's an impossibility to suggest konerko would have scored on those two pitches because those pitches wouldn't have happened.
Denny does this a lot too.
Pam: Good eye, way to watch the game. The play you mentioned is one in which I considered giving Esky heads-up base running points. I was watching the game with my son Paul, who is helping out at times with the website, and that was a play that stuck out.
When you score these categories you have to develop some criteria: what's heads-up baserunning or what's an outstanding play?
My definition will be different than other people's definition and that's OK. It's even worth debating because it makes you think about the game and what you're seeing.
For heads-up baserunning I've gone with the runner getting a base you didn't expect or making a good decision that saves an out.
On Gordon's pop-up Esky could increase his lead the farther the defenders move away from the infield. When the ball dropped, third was uncovered (another sleeping pitcher) and Esky took off. At the time I thought it was a play most base runners would make and shouldn't be considered an 'extra base.'
But I gave Melky points for jumping up and continuing to third on his stolen base because he was aware of where the ball and the fielders were, so what's the difference?
I can't think of one, so I'll go back and change that scoring and Esky gets a few more points because of you.
And, no, just because a run scores later on a home run, it doesn't wipe out good base running that precedes it.
Glad you enjoyed the Tibetan monks line. It was pretty late and I wasn't sure I was spelling 'Tibetan' or 'Himalayas' correctly, but I'm pretty sure I nailed 'monks'.
Robert: I can't understand why Mitch isn't the closer, just look at his numbers.
Roger: You make an excellent point. I like Ned Yost and like him as a manager, but there are nights we're told he made a decision because he's developing a player and night's we're told he's doing everything he can to win. The two are not always the same thing.
There were plenty of nights Wilson Betemit's bat never got in a game. Maybe the answer lies in what Clint Hurdle once told me:
Clint was managing in the minors and I asked him if his job was to win or develop players. Clint said, "Develop players, until we lose three in a row."
Maybe Ned just wanted to win one.
Matt: You're absolutely right. Changing one thing in a scenario and assuming nothing else would change in this alternate universe you've created is a bit of a cheat.
But to me, it's still a game worth playing, even though things might not play out the same way. (Maybe Greg Holland doesn't throw another pitch in the dirt once a runner's on third.)
So if it's not entirely accurate, why do it? Well, nothing's entirely accurate, not even statistics, and it doesn't stop us.
What I (and I'm assuming Denny) is trying to do is get people to focus on plays that seem routine and to do that we're reminding people of the consequences of not making those routine plays.
If Perez blocks a pitch in the dirt and a fan takes no notice, he misses the importance of the play. Say Perez just saved a run and maybe they look closer.
You can't say what would've happened next if Gordon had not held Konerko to a single, but you can say Gordon held Konerko to a single and that's worth something.
Anyway, I title the piece 'How defense saved two runs, maybe' just to acknowledge what you're saying: I was playing out a scenario that might or might not have happened.
I agree that Ned was trying to stop the losing streak. A four game sweep is ugly. A five game skid is uglier.
Why waste Mitch as a closer. Don't we need starters more?
watching the game last night one thing stood out to me in the first inning. Chen hit Quentin and he was awarded first base. According to Rule 6.08b if a batter makes no attempt to avoid a pitched ball it will be called a ball and the batter is not awarded first base. As the replay showed Quentin did not even twist his foot. Very seldom see umpires apply this rule. I think this hurts pitchers that try to move batters off the plate. Batter come to the plate wearing enough armor to go into battle. This also causes the pitcher to have to throw more pitches as he has to start over at 0 with another batter. This brings to mind another thing a lot of my friends miss. Errors and plays not made cost the pitchers extra pitches. I have seen innings where defense cost 15 extra pitches even though no runs scored. These add up.
"I like Ned Yost and like him as a manager, but there are nights we're told he made a decision because he's developing a player and night's we're told he's doing everything he can to win."
Yost stuck with Escobar at bat because he was convinced that Escobar would be a good hitter. In Milwaukee he stuck with his troubled 2nd baseman, Richie Weeks I think, because he had range and needed to learn to use it. Johnny Giavotella came up with a rep as a weak defender and Ned Yost may not see the physical gifts that tell him that practice will make perfect. Or it may just have been losing four straight games. Great line from Clint Hurdle.
Just watched the video of you with Moose and Hoss at first base. Thanks for letting us see some of the players personalities outside of game time. You actually get paid to have that much fun?
Jim: I agree, deciding to make Mitch a starter or the closer is going to be a tough call , but I don't think he's got the stamina to be a starter.
Plus, if a batter saw that weak stuff twice, someone's bound to get hurt, probably Mitch.
And if it makes you feel any better, I get paid very little to have that much fun. One of the things I wanted to do from the beginning is bring some of the humor that's in the clubhouse and dugout to the fans.
Baseball is one of the few sports where you see competitors laughing in the middle of a game.
When I first started doing the videos I was told the players were funny before the lights went on and then clammed up. So I told them not to turn the lights on. Sticking a camera and microphone in someone's face and then hitting the lights will make anyone aware they are now being filmed.
That's why you see the 'cold openings' in the videos. I told our cameraman, John Sleezer, I'd start talking to players and at some point he should turn the camera on and not make a big deal of it. That way the conversation keeps flowing.
Make it a contest (And, man, didn't my throws look slow compared to real players?) and the guys are really into it. When we finished Moose wanted to know how soon I was coming out to try to make the throw on a bunt to third. (Actually, a pretty good idea.)
If you watch Chris Getz on concussions, or Frenchy on throwing or Mitch on pitching, you get a sense of their sense of humor and the fun they bring to the game.
By the way, a couple people (non-baseball players) expressed concern that I could've hurt Hosmer. Really?
Escobar's throwing upper 90s in the dirt to him, every day he fields screaming grounders during BP and you think those Hostess Snowballs I was throwing over there were going to hurt him?
That's why Moose and I came up with the plan to cheat and mix in a slider.
Larry: You're right, they never call it, but Quentin made no move to get out of the way. So they don't call something that's in the rule book (HBP) and do call something that isn't (quick pitch).
And you're right about extra pitches: a guy throws 30 pitches, but gets out of it with no runs and everyone thinks no damage has been done.
In reality, the starter just lost an inning off the back end of his performance.
Jim: Yeah, Clint made me laugh pretty hard with that line. And maybe that was it: Ned just wanted to win this game and pulled out the stops.
There is a theory that you let players develop in the first six or seven innings and try to win in the last two or three.
I kind of see what Yost was saying about Escobar: along with the catcher he's the most important defensive player on the field and do you want to send a lesser player out to play defense?
In this case Ned had a better defender to send out. It's certainly too early to label Giavotella, but his reputation says he has stiff hands and we've seen that a couple times already.
Interesting question I should ask: if you have stiff hands, can you learn to make them better? I would think so, but I've never had to do it.
On Johnny Giavotella, with the caveat that the sample size is painfully small at the big league level, two numbers jump out at me, the first is that his combined chances and assists per game are low, 30 in 8 games for a 3.75 per game, compared to Getz 4.76 on 462 total C&A over 97 games. Mike Aviles had 101 C&A over 20 games, 5.05 at 2nd. This roughly suggests range, so I'll watch Gio over the rest of the year and see if this is just a fluke or if his range is limited, as perhaps suggested by Ned Yost when speaking of Richie Weeks in Milwaukee.
Second, small sample size number is double-plays, Gio involved in 3 through 8 games, .375/game; Getz 58 in 97 games, .597; Aviles 14 in 20 games, .700/game.
Way too early to make a judgement, but I would suggest that these are things that the organization will be watching closely; Giavotella's hands, his range, and his abilities in double-plays. Hands and DPs should be improve-able, not so sure about range, that might be something you could generically ask the coaches about. I'm hoping Gio excels, as his bat has possibilities.
Remembering your blog after game one of the Tampa series, it feels good to get this one off to a good start. I'm interested to see how it plays out over the weekend. Hope the good start propels them into another winning series!
Jim: I once read that arguments are made up of evidence and conclusions and people often mix up the two. Thanks for the evidence.
Sounds like we both think it's too soon to offer conclusions. Of course we can both think of so many factors that would change those numbers that have nothing to do with Giavotella, Getz or Aviles.
In fact, one of the concerns about Aviles was the double play. Some felt there were double play opportunities that Mike didn't cash in.
I'll ask, but a player might be able to make up for limited range by studying the spray charts and standing in the right place to begin with.
Of course, that depends on the pitcher's ability to hit spots and get the ball hit where it's supposed to go.
Tom: The importance of winning the first game of a series was pointed out to me by Jason Kendall. He talked about how it affects a team psychologically and makes the rest of the series easier.
(Now there's an interesting number I won't research: how often does the winner of game one win a series?)
Jason also said it wasn't just psychological, you'd actual manage differently: use your closer more agressively in game one, take more chances on the base paths or send Chris Getz out to play defense at the end of the game.
I was disappointed that Rodriguez didn't send Escobar as well, until I realized that there was only one out and Melky was coming up. I think that is reason enough not to take a chance and so I gave Eddie a pass, even though it didn't work out in this instance.
As for Gio's high tag, it looked to me like Gordon's off-line throw forced him to come off the bag and then dive back at Pierre. Don't know that he could have done anything more. I do agree that Gio's range and hands leave something to be desired, but it takes a lot of defense to offset 4 extra base hits in 30 at-bats versus 8 XBH in 350 at-bats.
I agree it is to soon to form conclusions about Gio, but range aside, I'm concerned about his ability to make the routine plays that he gets to rather than the ones I wish he could make. If he can make the routine ones regularly, we probably can live with him if his bat stays alive; if he can't be counted on for the routine plays, he will have to hit like Wade Boggs to be worth keeping in the lineup.
Ed: Most of the time I'd agree, but I wasn't even sure there would be a throw on the Escobar play. It seemed way conservative to me, but Eddie knows more than I do and maybe he spotted something I missed.
As for Giavotella's high tag: you're right, Gordon's throw pulled him away from the bag, but when he went back for the tag he reached for the runner. Johnny could've shortened the distance by taking the glove to the bag and letting the runner tag himself out.
There's only one place in the world that runner's headed for, beat him to the spot and wait. It's a play you see messed up all the time.
You're right, clearly Giavotella has power that Getz doesn't possess. But taking a routine play and turning it into 2 errors and a runner on second is worrisome in a tight ball game. Which is why we saw Getz on the field.
All players have strengths and weaknesses and figuring out which strength and weakness you're going to go with isn't easy.
Joel: In a short amount of time we've seen what we'd only heard about Johnny Giavotella: good hitter, suspect defense.
But, as we all keep reminding each other: way too small a sample size to draw conclusions. These plays may be unusual and he'll settle down or maybe once they figure out how to pitch him, he'll struggle at the plate.
My baseball mentors were pretty old school and I was taught to go with defense up the middle (they handle the ball too often to be be bad) and offense in the corners (maybe they won't have to handle the ball too much).
The game has changed (maybe not for the better) and everybody wants offense every where. But nine guys who can swat, but can't play D has never been a winning formula.
Watching this all play out is pretty interesting, isn't it?
Actually, the effect of Francouer's arm can be quantified. On singles to Francouer in RF, opposing runners at 1B have been held at 2B 25 out of 58 chances, with 4 of 33 thrown out at 3B. With a runner on 2B, 19 of 44 have been held at 3B on a single and 3 of 25 thrown out at the plate. Francouer has a 47.4% hold rate and 5.1% kills, as opposed to league averages for his position at 45.1/2.8.
It's too early to consider Perez on a stat basis, but look long term to stolen base attempts per opportunity. The beauty of baseball is that there's a stat for almost anything, some very reliable and others quite dubious.
One more interesting Francouer stat: of 18 opportunities with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs, only 9 have attempted to score on Francouer, with two thrown out. Francouer's 9 holds is by far the best in the AL, with three players (including multiple Gold Glover Ichiro Suzuki) tied with 4. Yes, Francouer has a rep, and it has its effect.
Chris: OK, you win, there IS a stat that reflects something that didn't happen.
And thanks for bringing it to my attention.