Games » Tampa Bay Rays
Aug10Analyzing a meltdown
Lee Judge
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In a weird way, the whole thing started when Melky Cabrera hit his three-run home run in the top of the ninth inning. Suddenly, it wasn’t a save situation. Suddenly, Joakim Soria was sitting down and Aaron Crow was getting up. Suddenly, the Royals went from an intense, one-run ball game to a game that seemed to be in the bag. Melky was so relaxed he was joking and clowning on his way out to centerfield for the bottom of the ninth.
Funny thing about baseball, though: You can’t run out the clock. Unlike football or basketball or hockey or soccer or any other sport with a clock, there never is a situation in baseball in which you can say, “There just isn’t enough time for them to catch us.”
Keep getting hits, and you have all the time in the world. And the Rays kept getting hits.
Second-guessers will say Royals manager Ned Yost should have stuck with Soria. First-guessers, too. I had my doubts about the last-second switch, but Ned said after the game that Crow had enough time to warm up. Especially after Ned sent Greg Holland out to stall with a few warmup pitches of his own. And there are a lot of closers (I don’t know whether Soria is one) who have the reputation of pitching poorly when it isn’t a save situation. Plus, Ned said that with an afternoon game looming on Thursday, he wanted to save Soria if he could.
On the other hand, wins have been hard to come by in St. Petersburg. You don’t know that you will need Soria the next day, and there’s a bird in your hand. You might want to close your fist. Still, Ned was managing by the book when he went with Crow, and whether you agree with the book or not, it can’t be called a mistake. But Melky’s ninth-inning decision can be called a mistake.
With the Rays’ Matt Joyce on second base and Johnny Damon on first, Tampa Bay batter Evan Longoria singled to center field. Your box score says “double,” but that was wishful thinking on the part of the Tampa Bay scorekeeper. Melky’s throw came into third base instead of second, and Longoria advanced, taking the double play out of order.
The next batter, Ben Zobrist, then hit a chopper to second baseman Johnny Giavotella. It didn’t look as though it was hit hard enough to be a double-play ball, but Johnny should have been able to force Longoria at second if Longoria had still been at first. Then the ball that the next batter, Casey Kotchman, hit, which pulled Giavotella to his right, would have been an easy force of Zobrist at second instead of a failed throw to first.
And then Soria’s strikeout of B.J. Upton would have been the third out instead of the second, and we would all be talking about Salvador Perez, the new Royals’ catcher, instead of analyzing a meltdown.
Let’s talk about Salvador Perez
Wow.
Let me expand on that: Salvador Perez’s arm changes things for the Royals infielders and opposition base runners. First, Royals infielders better be heads-up because Perez likes to pick off runners. In this game, they were. Third baseman Mike Moustakas and first baseman Eric Hosmer got points for tough picks and tags. Perez’s pick-off of Sam Fuld in the eighth inning got the Royals out of a jam, and his pick of Casey Kotchman in the fourth did the same thing.
Perez’s arm means that opposing runners may have to take shorter leads, which means more runners caught stealing, fewer runners going first to third or second to home or breaking up double plays. His size makes more pitches look like strikes. The Matt Treanor video on the website explains how pitches caught between the shin guards are more likely to be called strikes. So wider shin guards equals more strikes.
The drawback to size can be a difficulty getting into the correct blocking or throwing position quickly. This hampered John Buck when Buck caught for the Royals, but if Perez has this problem, I sure couldn’t spot it in this game. I’m no expert, but Perez seemed to receive the ball quietly without the exaggerated jerking around of someone who was trying to pull the ball back into the strike zone, which probably makes an umpire mad.
I don’t know about Perez’s ability to call a game, but I will ask around. One drawback that catchers who throw well sometimes have is they want to show off their arms and call for too many fastballs. I didn’t notice that with Perez, but it’s worth keeping in mind.
But before we put him in the Hall of Fame …
People get a little nuts about new players. I heard someone was comparing Johnny Giavotella with Dustin Pedroia. Could we let him play two weeks before we give him the MVP trophy? Veteran observers say you need to see a guy play 40 to 50 games to get an idea of what you have on your hands.
It took Alex Gordon four years.
A slider gets slammed
Royals starter Felipe Paulino gave up a home run on a flat slider and that reminded me of Jim Palmer. Palmer once said more balls had been hit farther on bad sliders than on any other pitch. According to Jim, a hung curve is at least a change of speeds, and lots of hung curves get popped up.
A bad slider is pretty much a mediocre fastball. Paulino’s previous pitch was a 95 mph fastball. The slider that left the park was 88 mph and didn’t move much at all … until Matt Joyce hit it.
Just like they drew it up
Whenever the timing seems right, I’m going to post the Royals’ pregame schedule. Included in that schedule is their batting-practice routine, and within that routine is a situational hitting round. During that round, the hitter is asked to “get him over” and “get him in.” The idea is to hit the ball to the right side to get a runner on second base to third and then hit a ball in the air (or, if the infield’s back, on the ground up the middle) to get the run in.
In the fifth inning, Alcides Escobar led off with a double, Alex Gordon got him to third with a deep fly ball to center and Melky Cabrera got him in when he golfed a low pitch to right field for a sacrifice fly. On a night with an ending that pretty much sucked, you might as well try to enjoy this demonstration of excellent situational hitting.
But Melky still needed to throw the ball to second.
A play from Tuesday night
When Eric Hosmer stole second off Tampa Bay starter James Shields on Tuesday night, it was the first time anyone stole a base off Shields all season. If Hos had been thrown out, I’m sure somebody would have been happy to say, “What are the Royals doing? Don’t they know you can’t steal off James Shields?”
Had these critics been alive in 1953, they might have said, “What’s Edmund Hillary doing? Doesn’t he know you can’t climb Mount Everest?” Statistically, neither attempt makes sense, but just because something hasn’t been done doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
Cabrera
Perez
Escobar
wow. this hurts.
Lee, does Crow look like he's still hurting? He just doesn't look the same.
Second question: Any chance of a little bit of psychological letdown with all the changes? I've heard that Davies was a popular guy, Treanor is well-respected, Pena well liked, so is Getz. I've worked jobs where the axe starts falling and it makes others a little jumpy and also damages the sense of community in a group. People work through it, but it isn't instantaneous and can show in lapsed concentration.
Lee, I saw very little of the game, but I did see the ninth inning. I have a couple of questions. With the tying run on first, were the Royals outfielders playing deep to cut off balls in the gap? Secondly, why wasn't Soria backing up a base? He should have been in between third and home in foul territory once the ball was hit, and then back up the base where the throw was going to. BIG mental mistake!
Hits off Crowe were ground ball singles hit just hard enough to make it thru. No walks so that's good. Melky's throw and Gio's misplay were worse than the hits. Then I thought Francour made a great play on the triple, Gio did not receive the ball in good position, turned the wrong way on the throw, and his throw obviously did not look big league. All in all, sucks that we lost, but not 1 thing you can blame it on.
Dave: I agree.
Great point Robert about Soria not backing up third. He was just watching the game.
The other question I had was: Why do you hold a runner on first with a four run lead and a left handed batter at the plate? That leaves a huge hole on the right side and Damon exploited that.
Jim: I don't know about Crow. He's said he feels fine, but he didn't tell anyone (at least in the media) that he was having physical problems before the All-Star break, either, so who knows?
As for your second question: I'm not sure I'd describe what's happening as a psychological letdown. But the clubhouse is awfully young right now.
That's exciting for fans, but winners usually blend veterans with young players. The veterans keep the young guys focused. Who's the veteran on that infield right now? There aren't too many 'been there, done that' guys left.
It may not show up in numbers (except wins), but the loss of people like Jason Kendall make a difference. Kendall, Treanor, Getz...all guys who can remind young players of what needs to be done next. Two of them are on the sidelines and one of them is wearing a sling.
The young talent is terrific, but this is the downside of all that young talent being on the field at the same time.
Robert: Good eye. I went back and looked at the play and you were right, Soria got caught watching the game. I'll add a mental mistake to his total.
Surprising, coming from a veteran, but that's how meltdowns happen. I'm not sure it would've changed the play, Giavotella's throw hit Fuld in the foot and it caromed off in a slightly new direction, but Soria's got to be there to give the Royals a chance.
As for the outfield depth, hard to tell (one of the drawbacks of seeing the game on TV), but they'd usually be in 'no doubles' positioning. Meaning, play deep, no diving catches, keep the ball in front of you.
Rick: Another good observation (you guys are giving me a run for my money). Francoeur played the ball well off the wall and Giavotella did not get in a good position for the relay.
The outfielder is throwing 200 feet. As long as he's got it in the general vicinity, it's up to the infielder to position himself correctly.
Giavotella needed to receive the ball glove side and turn with the throw in one motion. Instead, he had to jump for the ball (may be a product of being 5' 8") and then turned the wrong way.
After cautioning fans to not get ahead of themselves when judging players, I don't want to make the same mistake, but we did see a sample of what Giavotella has been known for.
Johnny got a couple hits, including a double down the right field line. He stayed back on a breaking pitch and drove it the other way...extremely difficult to do.
Then he clanked a Casey Kotchman grounder off his glove (I've heard Johnny's hands are a bit stiff), picked the ball up and tried a jump throw.
Frank White thought he had time to plant and make the throw (and I tend to trust Frank on second-base issues). Giavotella buried the throw and Hosmer couldn't scoop it.
Mike Moustakas said the throw from third was on-line, but hit Sam Fuld in the foot.
Losing sucked, but how they lost has sure given us something to talk about this morning.
Scott: Wow, ANOTHER good question I'd ask if I were there. I went back, once again, and looked at the video and couldn't tell where Eric Hosmer was orginally positioned when Damon was at the plate in the 9th.
The camera shifted with the ball and Hosmer was actually in on the grass when the ball went past him, so he definitely wasn't playing back.
I've seen the first baseman hold the runner in the 9th with a multi-run lead before, but only because the batter was a right-handed pull hitter that never hit the ball through the hole at first.
Damon being left-handed and Soria throwing a breaking pitch would make you think Hosmer should've been back.
The only reason to be in is if you think Damon will try to bunt for a hit (don't know how much he does that), but then you'd charge late. If Damon looks up and you're in, I'd think he'd be swinging away.
Good observations by all the readers this morning. Tune in tomorrow because I'm going to write about what you guys just did.
Awesome.
P.S. I didn't want to let this get away: Salvador Perez did a great job of maintaining the plate on the final play of the game.
He had his left foot stretched out trying to block Fuld off while receiving the ball.
After talking with Brayan Pena about losing position and winding up in the wrong place, it was cool to notice how hard Salvador worked at staying in the right place.
The work of Perez behind the plate is encouraging. He looks like he could stabilize the position the position for years to come. Time will tell. It's tough to take a loss like this, but as you point out it is one of the products of playing all "babies" in the line-up. The ninth might have been a perfect place for Getz (fans can now appreciate how routinely he handled opportunities like these critical plays), but (to their credit)management continues to focus on the future rather than the immediate present. The rest of this year is to get ready for next year, and we need to keep that in mind.
Hey guys...I love this kind of talk. Good stuff!
A couple things I wanted to add to the conversation...first, Robert mentioned he didn't get to see much of the game aside from the ninth. I too didn't get to see much of it, but the part I saw was the 7th, 8th and top of the 9th, so even though I was really bummed to hear they blew the loss, I came away with a little different feel. I still continue to be very encouraged and look at this as more of a "growing pains" loss than a "typical Royals" loss we've all grown used to over the last 20+ years.
I'm a big Bill Snyder fan and one of the things he used to talk about when he first came to K-State in 1989 was looking at some non-scoreboard stuff to determine improvement. After reading all of the discussion this morning, it's apparent that there were a lot of mental mistakes in the bottom of the 9th, but I don't want us to forget about the bottom of the 8th and the top of the 9th. What Perez did by picking off Flud was incredibly clutch and something we haven't seen for a VERY long time. But, even better than that was the emotion he (and the team) showed after the play.
I'm giving Yost the credit for this, but I've seen more fist pumps and clapping by baserunners after beating out a throw since he arrived than the previous 10 years combined (it seems). I am loving the enthusiasm and the competitive spirit that this young team is bringing to the field every day.
Again, not to beat the comparison to K-State football to death, but culture change was a HUGE factor. Somehow the team had to shift from "kind of wanting to be out there." to "We WANT to be out there." When Michael Bishop came in 1997, it shifted again from "we can win some games but we can't beat Nebraska or Colorado." to "I don't care WHO we're playing, we're here to win." I can't help but see something similar happening with this young Royals team.
Lee, you would know better than any of us, but do you get that sense? Is something shifting inside the locker room? I remember some story about the Royals team in the early 70s, as they were just starting to build their championship teams. A new player had just joined the team (maybe through trade?) and while he was sitting in his locker, one of the current young Royals team members asked him if he thought he could be the best player at his position in the league. It sort of made the guy realize, "wow...these guys are serious about winning!" It set a tone that they weren't settling for mediocre. My great hope is that is what is happening with this young Royals team. I see a look in the eye of Hos, Duffy, Johnny G. and now Perez that gives me hope that these guys believe they can beat the big boys and everyone else better get on board. (maybe Moose if he can get his stick going, although your comment about 40-50 games makes me nervous.)
Bottom line, the scoreboard tells us we lost. The bottom of the 9th was a "rip your guts out" loss. But, I'm coming away feeling like something is building and I can't wait for the next game. Of course, maybe I should limit myself to the good innings like I did last night and my life will always remain this optimistic! (sorry for the length of this post)
Joel: I agree with you about Perez and Getz. At times I've been criticized for giving too much credit for 'routine plays', but that's part of what I'm trying to do: get people to recognize how valuable those 'routine plays' are.
(And they sure don't look routine when a lesser player attempts them.)
Tom: I agree, outstanding posts from everybody this morning (in fact I'm writing about that tomorrow).
I also agree about teams creating a winning culture. On winning teams a veteran pulls you aside when you mess up to explain how and why what you did is not acceptable. When you do something right the same veteran is there to give you a fist bump and a slap on the butt.
The Royals clubhouse is very young right now and I think that atmosphere is still being established. I'm only in my second year of being in the clubhouse, but my impression is good.
After losses the clubhouse is quiet, but that's baseball tradition. The next day everyone seems back to normal and that's good.
Jason Kendall's locker is in the far back corner and every night there is a bucket of beer on ice back there. (See? Jason's got things figured out.)
It's now not uncommon to see a group of players back there drinking Jason's beer (wonder if he knows about that) and talking about the game.
That didn't happen much last year and players talking about the game is how they get better.
In my limited experience this seems like a good clubhouse. A few veterans pushing the rookies in the right direction will make it better.
And don't worry about the long post, I do it all the time.
For the first time in a long time, I'm ok with blowing a 4 run lead in the 9th. I'm truly as excited for a team that is 19 games under .500. Just look at our team. They're all young with good to great potential. But, we may need to flip someone to get some starting pitching. Can't win consistently without it. After a quick look we have 51 quality starts. That ranks near the bottom. If we can get about 10-15 more quality starts, we can be a .500 team. And that's a decent start. Still excited by seeing Perez pumped up to play.
Vinnie: Nail on the head, the Royals need starting pitching. If Cabrera and Francoeur are part of the plan, maybe they use some of the outfield talent in the minors to get what they need.
But GM issues are above my pay-grade. It's just nice to see a team you can get excited about and the Royals have pulled that off.
How about some positives.In the top of the ninth,Gordon worked a two strike count to a walk that brought up Melky with a three run bomb in his back pocket. Also, Crow had a 1-2 count on the first batter he faced and some idiot ran onto the field. This delayed the game, perhaps it disrupted Crow's concentration. Sometimes, it can take the smallest of things to make you lose focus.
Vinnie & Phil...thank you for saying what I was trying to express in a much better and succinct way! I forgot about Gordon's 2 strike walk. Great stuff! There are positives to be found if look beyond the scoreboard and that's the stuff hope is made of! Love it.
Speaking of "looking into the eyes" it seems to me over the last several games Hos doesn't look quite as intense at the plate as when he first came up. He's seen a lot of losses since then and is in somewhat of a slump. Or am I just hallucenating?
And pitching, pitching, pitching. Why do I not feel confident that our pitching can get it done? Starting OR relief OR closing? And it's been that way for many years. We've had young guys, old guys rookies, veterans, high paid and low and even changes managers and nothing seems to work. Guys who show promise don't work out. What's the one constant here - pitching coach. Is McClure not doing his job well, not connecting with the guys? Or is it strictly the talent (or lack) of the pitchers we sign?
People here in NJ just laugh at me when I wear my Royals stuff, and their record is so bad. For the first time in a long time, there's a "chance" that we can be a good team. Just keep this positive momentum going on the 15th when we sign Starling.
Phil: Excellent points and I made notes on both of them. Then the 9th blew up and I never got back to the two things you mentioned: Alex Gordon's walk that made Melky Cabrera's 3-run home run possible and the guy who screwed up a perfectly good ball game.
When that guy ran on the field I thought it was definitely to the Rays advantage. Crow was dealing, ahead in the count and the delay made him wait to throw a pitch, which gave the hitter (Matt Joyce? I don't record idiot delays) time to regroup.
Doug: I don't know about Hosmer's intensity level, but I'm pretty sure I don't want to go into a clubhouse of semi-naked athletes and stare deeply into someone eyes to find out.
As for the pitching: it certainly has to be better, but they don't fail all the time. We just remember disappointing losses like last night more vividly than ho-hum wins.
There are currently six pitchers with ERAs under 4.00 and Soria has saved 21 games. That's not good enough to be a winning team, but they don't stink every time out.
And I'm not sure I can relate any lack of success to Bob McClure. He's the one that might get fired if the pitching goes in the tank, but most coaches are saying the same stuff other coaches say.
Some might be better at communicating their ideas, but the main factor (and every manager or coach I've ever talked to agrees) is talent.
Vinnie: How hard is it to root for the Yankees or Red Sox? Being a fan of someone that wins all the time might be satisfying, but it's certainly not challenging.
I pull for the fans that have had to suffer for years or decades, but stuck with their teams. Can you imagine how much fun Pirates fans are having this season? (OK, not so much the last two weeks of this season, but this season overall.)
Just think how satisfying it will be when the Royals get good and you stuck with them through the hard times.
Just get ready to say I told you so.