Games » Boston Red Sox
Jul27Strengths and limitations
Lee Judge
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Every team, every player and every human being has strengths and limitations. The smart team, player or human being spends as much time as possible in areas of strength and as little time as possible in areas of limitation. Last night the Royals spent way too much time in an area of limitation.
(By the way, the “strengths and limitations” format we use in our mid-season and end of the season evaluations comes directly from Tim Bogar, Boston Red Sox third base coach. It’s a really useful way to think about players: none of them are perfect, all of them have strengths. Last night Bogie got smoked by a Dustin Pedroia line drive in foul territory, I sent him an email and he called after the game. Tim is fine, he took it off the forearm and we’ll get together next month when the Red Sox come to town. In fact I plan to take him out and get him hammered after each game and see if we can get a few bad decisions at third base while he’s here. I don’t like hanging out in bars and drinking with ballplayers, but let’s face it, I’m a team player.)
So where was I?
Oh, yeah, strengths and limitations. The Red Sox strength is high-scoring slugfests. They want to take a lot of pitches, walk or get into hitting counts and then put the hurt on you. The Royals have to throw strike one, pitch ahead and force them to swing early. (You might get away with a pitch in the middle of the plate 0-0 to David Ortiz, but throw it 3-1 when he’s looking for something to drive, like Chen did last night with the bases loaded, and you’ve got a good chance of giving up four runs in a hurry.)
The Royals offensive strength is speed. In a 1-1 game like Monday’s, speed and the ability to steal a base matters, but in a 12-5 game all that speed makes no difference. When you’re down by seven, you’re not stealing or taking the extra base.
If the Royals are going to split the series today, the game needs to be low scoring and it all starts with strike one.
Other game notes
On more than one occasion a Royals base runner couldn’t score from second on a base hit to left. The Green Monster is (according to the sign on the wall) 310 feet away from home. The foul pole on Kauffman is 330 and then the fence drops away sharply, so it can be quite a bit more. The short throw from left in Fenway probably changes all the old base running rules. When you can’t score from second, maybe it’s OK to make the first or third out at third. (Should’ve asked Bogie.)
Bogie did say, “The wall giveth, the wall taketh away.” Alex Gordon opened the game with a double that would’ve been a routine fly ball out in Kauffman. Balls that might be home runs any place else can be turned into singles. (And Bogie thought Gordon did a great job playing the wall last night.) Eric Hosmer is heating up and that’s helping Billy Butler. If Billy is protected by Hos he’ll get better pitches to hit. That’s just one of the things numbers don’t tell you: the effect of the lineup on batting average.
Alex Gordon made a base-running mistake when he tried to advance to third from second on a ball hit back to the pitcher. The runner has to make sure the pitcher doesn’t field the ball before taking off.
Chris Getz got a mental mistake when he tried to leave the field with two outs. It was a long inning, Mike Moustakas turned a line drive into a double play and Getz started to leave the field. For some reason I thought there two outs myself, but Chris gets paid more than I do to keep track of this kind of thing, so he gets the mental mistake, not me.
Third baseman Yamaica Navarro proved a point I try to make on a regular basis: Really good players make tough plays look routine. Put a regular guy (or a good athlete who seemed to be struggling last night) out there and you’ll see what I mean. Alex Gordon hit a pop fly in foul territory in the 9th inning and Navarro didn’t even wind up in the same area code. Pop flies slice back into fair territory and Navarro body slammed himself trying to catch the ball. This stuff ain’t as easy as they make it look.
Last Sunday I did the pregame show with Jeff Montgomery and he talked about two out walks. I asked if that was a product of the pitcher mentally easing up, thinking the inning was almost over. Monty agreed and said watch how many times a pitcher gets two outs and then goes 2-0. Bruce Chen did it in the third, but got away with it…of course, it was just about the only thing he got away with last night.
A fly ball landed in short right, surrounded by Jeff Francoeur, Chris Getz and Eric Hosmer. I’m not sure anybody could’ve caught it, but Jeff Francoeur had priority. The middle infielders have priority over the corners (they’ve got a better angle) and outfielders have priority over infielders (they’re coming forward). Nobody got there, but Frenchy had the best chance.
Ned Yost got Nate Adcock right back on the mound after a bad outing Tuesday. One of the things I’ve noticed with Ned is he tends to throw people right into the fire. A kid that comes up from the minors is often asked to play the day he arrives and a pitcher that has a bad outing is often asked to go right back out there. Probably better than letting a player stew for a week. Adcock responded with two runs in four innings, not a quality start, but close to a quality finish.
The Alex Gordon video
As you can see, we posted the video featuring Alex Gordon discussing the features of the left field corner in Kauffman Stadium. The video reminded me of two things:
1.) I’m old.
2.) I’ve been doing this a long time.
Even though this website is only in its second year, the first time I went out on a field and talked to professional players was 20 years ago. I’d gone to the Royals Fantasy Camp and met Clint Hurdle. He invited me out to Williamsport, Pennsylvania to visit his Double A team, the Williamsport Bills, part of the N.Y. Mets system at the time.
One night, right fielder Jeromy Burnitz made a great throw to nail a runner at the plate, so the next day I asked him where he was when he made the throw. We went to the spot and talked about what was going through his mind. Then Clint offered me the chance to duplicate the throw on video. The catcher at the plate was John Gibbons, currently the Royals bench coach. Back then he was the Mets roving catching instructor.
Needless to say, my arm was not capable of duplicating Jeromy’s throw. Clint also offered me the chance to hit a ball out of the park during BP. If I’d hit my best shot five feet further I could’ve said I had warning track power. I ran sprints with D.J. Dozier (he won) and had dinner with Tim Bogar after he caught the last out of a no-hitter. (I asked what it was like and he said, “I was ––— my pants.” According to Bogie there were a lot of guys out there thinking “Don’t hit it to me, don’t hit it to me.”)
After a week of hanging with the players I thought, “Boy, baseball fans would love to hear this stuff.” I had so much fun I’d visit Clint a couple times a summer and hang out with the players. One night in Toledo, Ohio, Clint’s pitching coach, Bob Apodaca (currently the Colorado Rockies pitching coach) said, “Do you have any idea how much the players like having you around?”
It really hadn’t occurred to me. Dak said they liked it because I always brought cookies (my wife would bake a couple of boxes worth because the guys in the minors had so little money). Bob also said they liked it because, “You ask good questions.”
Dak told me any player that had made it this far was a fabulous player, but were always being told what they had to do to make it to the big leagues. But even though their shortcomings were always being pointed out, Bob said they knew a lot of baseball and liked showing me what they knew.
When I took on this website I picked the Polk system because it gave some structure to the discussion and would force me to pay attention to the games. But the real goal was to duplicate the experience I’d had in the minors and try to bring that experience to fans. I had no idea if major league players would be as open about discussing and demonstrating their skills. As you can see from the Gordon video, I had nothing to worry about.
Except trying to climb walls, 30 years past my prime…and my prime wasn’t all that prime.
Anybody know where you get those performance enhancing drugs you hear about? I could use a little help…and a new left knee.
Alex Gordon climbs the walls
The Royals' Alex Gordon gives The Star's Lee Judge advice on climbing the left-field wall. July 26, 2011 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Hosmer
Gordon
Butler
Lee, speaking of mental mistakes, I thought our 3rd base coach made one last night by holding Moose at third base on a double down the right field line by Pena with two outs and the bottom of the order coming up. At the time, the game was still close and, as I figured would happen at the time, Getz made the final out to strand both runners in scoring position. These games in Fenway are slugfests and holding a runner at third in that situation (in my opinion) was an error in judgement. The play at the plate might have been close, but it would have taken a perfect relay throw to get Moose. Interested in your thoughts.
Don: I noticed the same play and wondered the same things. (I had a better feeling about Getz coming to the plate, he's been pretty good with runners in scoring position, but that's overall. I don't what his match-up numbers were last night, but they aren't any better this morning.)
On the replay from the high third-base camera (I'm learning TV lingo) it didn't appear that Moose was busting it into third...or maybe that's just how fast he runs.
Genrally, if the runner hits third before the ball is thrown, he can be sent, if he hits it after the ball is thrown, he can't.
There's a lot of other factors (arms, the position of the fielders, etc.), but my first impression was send him, after seeing the replay and when Mike got to third I wasn't so sure.
Dude, your blog is my favorite read of the day. I wish you could keep it up in the off-season.
Great story about hanging with Clint Hurdle and minor leaguers. If you haven't read, Odd Man Out, I highly recommend it. Journal about life in the rookie league. Provides a new perspective on Alberto Callaspo. Keep up the good stuff!
I agree with Getz due up next you have to send the runner, the dude has 20 some RBI take a chance, I am sorry to hurt you BROmance with Getz, Lee but Getz is not coming up with the big 90% of the time, if it is Hos, Gordo, heck anyone else you hold but man Getz was awful last night
Michael: Thank you very much, but the off-season is when I finally get to sleep.
Although, it really felt weird to do the last game last season. There was a 'what do I do tomorrow?' feel.
Maybe they should send me south to cover winter ball.
Robert: I'll look for that book, I love stories about the minors. Nobody wants to go back, but most players would agree that the minor-league experience makes you closer to your teammates.
When nobody's got a car and I show up with a rental, as many guys as possible pile in to go eat.
Doing the Gordon video reminded me of my experience with Burnitz and how I'm doing in public what I was doing in private two decades ago. (Wow, sounds like an aging porn star.)
Josh: Hey, lay off my bromance! At my age and after 27 years of marriage that's as exciting as my social life gets.
I will admit to appreciating that kind of player: maybe not as talented as some of the other guys, but smart and getting the most out of what he has. Tim Bogar was that kind of player and I know I tried to be.
I don't know what his numbers are now, but as of last Sunday Getz led the team in batting average with runners in scoring position by about 50 points. Statistically, overall, Chris has been the best bet on the team to drive in a run.
But as always, overall doesn't mean squat if you can't hit the guy on the mound right now. I don't know those matchup numbers, Eddie Rodriguez does.
Interesting Stat about Getz: He has 22 hits with RISP for a .324 BA (which is pretty good i'll admit) The interesting part is he only has 21 RBIs on the season. Probably due to his 7 XBHs.
Kurt: I agree, Getz's lack of power hurts his ability to drive in runs. Two other factors spring to mind: opportunity and foot speed.
Coming in to Sunday, Francoeur had 113 at-bats with a runner in scoring position, Getz 65. Chris has also hit behind the catcher most of the season and that would hurt his and Escobar's chances of driving in a slower runner.
Good points, it is just an interesting stat and obviously doesn't tell the entire story.
Kurt: I agree. I'd also agree that the stats never tell the entire story and figuring out what something really means can be difficult.
Topic: Bruce Chen
I remember watching Paul Byrd pitch when he was with the Royals and had that one very good year. As I recall there were nights where he just flat got lit up, but other nights he worked his mid-80's fastball work-the-corners magic and just flimflammed the batters. But I got used to looking for one thing in the first couple of batters in his starts; did he get the pitches on the corner. If he did, he was capable of dominating. If he didn't you could be pretty sure he wouldn't get out of the third inning. It was very predictable.
Same thing with Chen, I think. If he gets squeezed at all by the home plate ump, he is completely doomed. He just doesn't have the ability to overpower hitters when forced to pitch to the middle of the plate. He got squeezed last night and got bombed.
The point: Baseball has become such a science about everything else - is there any tracking done by the teams regarding umpires and their zones? If they know that Chen absolutely requires an ump who will give the corners, are they capable of holding off on him for a day until there is a more favorable matchup? I know that messes with the rotation, but with 6 guys throwing surely this is a possibility.
"Eric Hosmer is heating up and that’s helping Billy Butler. If Billy is protected by Hos he’ll get better pitches to hit. That’s just one of the things numbers don’t tell you: the effect of the lineup on batting average."
Seems like you have a hard time giving Billy credit, Lee. Just an observation...
Also wondering why Getz gets charged with a "mental mistake"? Did his starting to leave the field cost the team an out or something?
Matt: People talk about the need for Bruce to throw strike one and I think that's the same thing you're getting at: if he falls behind, he doesn't have the stuff to come into the heart of the zone and get away with it.
I know umpires have reputations, but matching pitchers with zones (and don't forget the role of the catcher and hitter) would be pretty chaotic.
Jason: Billy has been fairly vocal about being pitched around and after he had such a good series in Boston it seemed worth pointing out that Hosmer might be why he's getting better pitches to hit.
That doesn't detract from what Billy did in any way. Hosmer could get me pitches to hit and I couldn't hit them. Billy got pitches to hit and crushed them.
And I don't think I have trouble giving Billy credit. I've said at every opportunity that he's a terrific hitter. (See? I said it again.)
Last season I was accused of being soft on Billy because I refused to get upset about all the double plays he was hitting into. I said it was the cost of doing business when you hit the ball hard and low, but don't run well.
And Getz's mistake did not cost the team anything, but it well could've. It's a bad idea to stand around on a baseball field not knowing how many outs there are.
That's close to what I'm getting at; more specifically, he has to get the first pitch corner/off-the-edge strike. Greinke started getting awesome when he could throw two or three different pitches for the first pitch strike while still being nasty. Bruce can't get the first pitch "nasty" strike, so he has to get the first pitch on the edge. If he doesn't get it, he's doomed; he has to move more toward the center of the plate, he can't be 'surgical', and he is toast. I guess the point is that a pitcher like Chen is way more dependent on the umpire than is a less finesse-dominated pitcher. Too bad a team can't make changes based on that knowledge.