Games » Minnesota Twins
Jul15A very important no-decision
Lee Judge
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Two very big things happened last night: Eric Hosmer’s game-winning home run and Luke Hochevar’s no-decision.
Let’s start with Hosmer’s home run. Eric has been swinging at high fastballs, the word (or the video) has gotten around and now you see pitchers go up in the zone to see if Hosmer will chase. Top of the 9th, down 1-0, runner on second, two outs, Twin’s closer Matt Capps went upstairs to see if Eric would chase and Eric did.
Capps decided to come right back with another high fastball on the 0-1 count, didn’t get it high enough and Hosmer blasted it over the centerfield wall. (That’s a really long way to hit a baseball.) So now pitchers know they can go up there, but if they miss, Hosmer can make them pay. And Hosmer knows he can hit that pitch a long way, but a pitch that he can’t hit at all is only slightly higher. You can expect this scenario to be repeated, so watch for it in the future.
The other big event in this game was Hochevar’s quality start. (The Royals are a winning club when they get one and well under .500 when they don’t). Hochevar avoided the familiar meltdown inning in this game. The Royals said they spotted something that might fix Luke, but wouldn’t say what it was. Whatever adjustment he made (Frank White thought it might’ve been pitching inside more often) it was nice to see Hochevar put up seven innings while giving up only one run. (Nice to see? It was great to see.)
If this is the real deal and Hochevar can repeat this performance, it’s big news. It means the Royals are much closer to having a competitive team (as long as they don’t dismantle it at the trading deadline).
The Twins’ run
Classic small ball: an infield hit, a stolen base, a ground ball to the right side and a wild pitch almost won the game for the Twins. I’ve pointed out all the balls in the dirt that Matt Treanor has blocked with a runner on third (and he saved two more runs by doing that in this game), so it’s only fair that I point out that he didn’t get this fastball blocked. Treanor reached out and tried to backhand the ball and didn’t get his body in front of it. On the other hand, it was a fastball and those are the hardest pitches to block because there’s less time to move. A slider or curve in the dirt you can see coming and adjust. Ninety mph+ in the dirt and things happen in a hurry.
After one game when Treanor had a high fastball go past him untouched, I was giving him a hard time. “Hey, what was that pitch you completely whiffed on? Don’t umpires like it when you at least slow them down?” Matt informed me it was a 95-mph fastball face-high and when a pitcher misses by that much, it’s hard to get the glove there in time .
Another thing you can watch for
Watch the catcher’s eyes when he’s giving signs. You could see Treanor glance up at the hitter. Catchers check to make sure hitters aren’t peeking back at the signs. If they catch someone looking you can expect the next pitch to buzz the tower as a warning.
And while you’re watching
Sunday we’re going to run the first half summary in the print edition and post the unedited version online. In the meantime, here’s some stuff you can watch for during the second half:
Chris Getz: Can he keep the ball out of the air? He’s better when he hits it on the ground and makes use of his speed.
Melky Cabrera: Can he maintain his first-half consistency? I don’t remember him having any kind of prolonged slump. Is he due for one in the second half? Or do I just have a bad memory?
Alex Gordon: Will he continue to hit the ball the other way and not worry about home runs? Will he steal bases more often in the second half?
Billy Butler: Watch him with runners in scoring position. Billy says pitchers work around him and sometimes they do, but in Friday’s game they went after him three times with a runner in scoring position. Billy’s got more than 80 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Will he stay patient and take his walks or expand his zone?
Eric Hosmer: Will he lay off that high fastball and will he continue to go the other way? Will he cut down on his throwing errors by learning which plays can be made and which ones can’t?
Jeff Francoeur: RBIs are his most important offensive statistic. Will he be patient and get a ball out over the plate or pull-happy and chase pitches in?
Mike Moustakas: He says right now when he’s getting his pitch, he’s missing it. When Mike gets a hittable fastball (look for a pitch above 90 mph in the FoxTrax zone) does he hit it hard somewhere?
Matt Treanor: Will he continue to make himself valuable on offense by taking his walks?
Brayan Pena: Will his game-calling be a concern?
Alcides Escobar: Will he continue to maintain his average by hitting the ball the other way?
Luke Hochevar: Can he repeat Friday’s performance?
Kyle Davies: Can he figure things out and string together some quality starts?
Bruce Chen (and every other pitcher): Does he pitch ahead in the count and avoid 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2 counts?
Felipe Paulino: Can he continue to be a horse and go deep in games?
Danny Duffy: Can he continue to improve, keep his pitch count down, work faster and cut down his delivery time to the plate?
Jeff Francis: Can we get the poor guy some runs?
Tim Collins: Can he cut down on his walks?
Greg Holland: Can he continue to dominate which might free up Aaron Crow to go to the starting rotation next season?
Finally
We posted a video of Doug Sisson talking about his responsibilities as a first-base coach. Great stuff, lousy sound. We had a bad microphone cord and that’s the static you hear on the video. Persevere, the information’s worth it.
Hosmer
Hochevar
Soria
"Greg Holland: Can he continue to dominate which might free up Aaron Crow to go to the starting rotation next season?"
Something to discuss off the record with Bob McClure, but Holland has a plus fast ball, plus slider, and a slightly positive sinker while Crow's fb is a slight minus on fangraphs, but with a dominant slider and slightly positive curve. Holland would be the easier transition to starter next year unless Crow can settle on one of his three grips and produce a plus change. Crow's main weakness is lefties, who hit him 115 points better than righties while lefties only have a 37 point advantage with Holland. Both will probably be good starters eventually, but I'ld bet on Holland first.
Very cool that Ned said they found a way to fix Luke before the game and it totally worked
I don't know if they're thinking of Holland as a starter, but they have talked about Crow in that role. Crow has been a starter until recently.
Last season the Royals could not get the ball to Soria with a lead, so having the back end of the pen firmed up takes care of one problem. If that frees up a candidate for the starting rotation that might solve another.
It's only one game and nobody should get too worked up, but if Hochevar has found a fix, that's a big step towards an improved rotation.
By the way, I have no idea how Fangraphs comes up with its pitch ratings, so I can't comment on their accuracy.
But...if they're not also measuring deception (how much does each pitch look like the next?), sequence (a fastball down the middle can be a great pitch if you've convinced the hitter he's getting something else), consistency (does the quality of pitch drop off after a while?), durability (how does the pitcher's arm react to 100+ pitches?), smarts (a reliever can go after a batter one way since he'll face him once, a starter has to have several game plans for multiple at-bats against the same guy) and probably a dozen other factors I would talk about if I knew more about pitching, just looking at pitch quality (even if it's accurate) would probably be a poor way to select a starter.
As always, numbers don't tell you everything.
Lee, I was at the last two games and got to see the team interact before the game. (Have been in KC too, but never get to see BP- of course, didn't last night either) but one thing I notice, even with losing, this is a close, tight-knit team that you can tell likes to be together. They may not be winning, but they are still upbeat, close, and having fun. Most of all- They ARE playing hard! Even in the 8-4 loss, they are running everything out and still playing hard. I hope Dayton doesn't over-analyze and tear this team apart. WE DO NEED PITCHING! But, the nucleus is very strong. Moose will come around and Hosmer will win multiple batting titles before it is over. (BTW- he is VERY quick for a big guy and so agile)
I like this team. The nuances that you pick up being right there that you miss on TV!
Since you see them more than me- thoughts???
"But...if they're not also measuring deception (how much does each pitch look like the next?)"
Here's the link of Crow:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10149&position=P
Pitch-type values look at the individual pitches. I'm not that down with numbers, but they are helpful and the comparison between Crow and Holland suggests why Holland has been even more effective than Crow and may be why Ned Yost has mentioned that Holland will get a look as a starter. Holland was also a starter in his younger days. He just hasn't gotten the press so far, so is as under the radar as a guy with his success can be.
Jeff: Couldn't agree more. I've only been inside the clubhouse regularly for two years, but people who have been around much longer say it's one of the best clubhouses they've ever seen.
This team is remarkably good about letting the previous night go, win or lose. It always seems like a fresh start the next day.
There's a lot of back and forth between players. Guys who don't like each other don't kid each other, it can go bad too quickly. These guys get on each other, which is a good sign.
Veterans take rookies aside and either give them a pat on the back or a kick in the ass as required. Frenchy recently asked Moustakas to 'step into my office' while I was there and I assume he was going to talk to him about scuffling in the major leagues.
Dayton recently raised the possibility of keeping the team together and Frenchy said he'd like that. Jeff's point that you can't always be building for a future that never arrives is a good one. Francoeur also said at some point you have to take a stand and say 'this is the team.'
I hope the front office and owner listen. We can use some more starting pitching and they need to decide what Kendall's absence will mean, but other than that, I like this team.
Jim: I agree, numbers can be helpful, it's just that too many people stop there and don't consider other factors.
I hadn't heard Ned talk about Holland as a possible starter, but trying either him or Crow in the rotation might make sense as long as you feel you haven't hurt the pen.
Starting Chen, Paulino, Duffy, Francis (if he's still around) and Hochevar (if he figures it out) or whoever comes out of the pen, seems like a step forward even without a new arm (which I assume they'll be looking for.)
The comments about pitching are right on. I agree I would hate to see the team broken up unless it resulted in us getting a quality starter. As we have seen this year, and especially game to game, to be successful we need starters who can go 6+ and keep us in the game. The offense and defense are good enough that we will win our share of these games.
Lee
Very good points and questions. I'm not convinced that Hoch has turned a corner based on his start last night. He's teased us off and on every season with starts like that.
I like how these guys seem to be much more of a cohesive group this year. Amazing what getting rid of Greinke and Guillen has done to improve that.
Awesome game last night! It was just a matter of time before Hos connected on one of those High fastballs. Great outing by Luke. And, i read about Billy saying he gets pitched around. I've heard Ryan mention this several times on air also.My only comment to Billy would be how about just do your job, if they walk you great. Believe in the guy behind you. Good article and view, i'll check your articles out from here on out!
Brandon: Thank you. I hope you become a regular. And I agree about Billy and the walks: with the guys behind him, take them. I wouldn't think Billy expanding his zone is a good idea. Francoeur (or whoever is in the six-hole) might be in a different spot: Moustakas and the catcher are up next and until Mike gets it going, the six-hole hitter expanding might be preferable, but I'm sure they talk about this stuff.
I'll ask Frenchy when they get back what attitude they want him to have at the plate.
Devan: I'm under the impression Greinke just went his own way (most of the time) and people eventually tuned out Guillen (although calling his teammates babies and talking about their lack of will to win couldn't have helped).
I don't know if anyone thought it was a bad clubhouse last year, but it seems like everyone thinks it's a better clubhouse this year.
You see veterans reach out to the new guys (it might be reaching out to make them wear a faux hawk or carry a Justin Beiber backpack, but they definitely reach out). Vocal leadership like Jeff Francoeur's helps everybody.
Coaches don't want to always have to be the ones telling people to pull it together or hang in there. It helps when a guy like Frenchy counsels someone.
Joel: With you on the pitching. When I say the Royals are a couple starters away from being competitive, I mean just that. A team that competes and plays .500 ball or better.
I think they're quite a ways from competing with the Phillies or the Red Sox, but I'd be satisfied (at least for a while) with a team that could win as often as it loses and maybe be around to compete for a playoff spot in September.
It's been a while.
Lee
I don't think Guillen getting into it with the fans in the paper (and on the field) or getting into a fight with Bob McClure helped his popularity in the clubhouse. Frenchy is a class act as evidenced with how he took Eric Hosmer under his wing and told his folks he'd look out for him.
Devan: Yeah, you're right about Guillen. I was told that after a while guys just quit reacting to his antics. And Frenchy is one of the main reasons this clubhouse is better.