Games » San Diego Padres
Jun28Sloppy defense gives away the game
Lee Judge
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The prevailing theory about the Royals lack of success is that it’s due to the starting pitching. That hasn’t been true the last two nights. Jeff Francis and Felipe Paulino gave the team every chance to win, but a shortage of offense and sloppy defense did the team in.
Last night the Royals gave up two runs unnecessarily: one was fairly obvious. With a runner on second, a fly ball was hit to Alex Gordon in left. With nobody out, if it looks like a fly ball to the outfield might be caught, the runner goes back to second to tag. If he doesn’t think he can advance (and it’s hard to advance to third on a fly ball to left because of the short throw), the runner bluffs the advance, just to force a throw in hopes of an error. Most of the time, this is a nothing play. It usually doesn’t work or change anything, but you do it, just like running out a routine grounder, just in case.
This time, it worked. Alex looked like he had a funny angle and his throw came out high. Third baseman Wilson Betemit jumped, but couldn’t come down with it, although he did appear to tip it. This is where the pitcher comes in. On this play the pitcher’s job is to back up third. Felipe Paulino did this, but might have been in the wrong position. (Hard to tell for sure on TV, so no mental mistake.)
The pitcher wants to get as close as possible to the dugout so he has room to adjust. Felipe may have been too close to Betemit, so when the ball got tipped, he had no reaction time to the new course of the ball. Felipe jumped up like he was going to have to knock the ball down and the ball actually went under him. Not a good looking play and it allowed the runner, who had no intention of advancing at all, to score when the ball went out of play.
The second run the defense gave away was a little less obvious (and I might be wrong about what happened, so take this with a grain of salt).
In the second inning with a runner on second, nobody out and the pitcher at the plate, a sacrifice bunt was obviously in order. The Royals defense had Betemit positioned in front of the bag, facing the pitcher. When the third baseman is in that position it’s usually because they want him to be able to crash in for the bunt or go back and cover third if he’s not needed to field the ball.
Ideally, the pitcher or catcher can pick up the bunt if it’s on the third base side and look to third to see if they have a play. The bunt was down and right in front of the plate. Clearly, Betemit would not be needed, but instead of getting back to the bag, he drifted forward, ending up around the mound. Matt Treanor got on the bunt right away and might have had a play at third, but Betemit wasn’t there and Treanor was going to have to hit Alcides Escobar on the run, a risky play. Treanor made the right decision and took the sure out at first, but the runner at third then scored on the next batter’s sacrifice fly.
Once again, without talking to the players it’s hard to nail Betemit with a mental mistake. It’s possible he was supposed to crash and Esky had third all along, but if he was crashing, he wasn’t crashing very hard.
These are the kind of mistakes we haven’t seen in a while. The Royals haven’t been winning much, but they haven’t been beating themselves much. Here’s hoping this is an aberration.
More Paulino
Felipe Paulino continues to make you wonder where the hell he’s been hiding all this time. Ryan Lefebvre had an interesting stat: in 40 career starts, Felipe’s team has scored 2 runs or less in 24 games… OK, now make that 25 games. No wonder his won-loss record doesn’t look so hot. I asked him about starting as opposed to relieving and he said he likes starting better, but he’ll do whatever they ask him to. (Same relationship I have with The Star.) As a reliever, he concentrates on two pitches; as a starter, he can throw all five, and he thinks that’s an advantage. He’s obviously strong enough to go deep into games and every time he does that he sets up the bullpen for the next couple days.
Adding and subtracting
I hadn’t noticed it before, but Paulino did a kind of weird swiping motion on his legs and upper body before delivering a pitch. He might have been ‘adding and subtracting.’ Some pitchers like to do this. They look at the sign (say it’s one finger for fastball) and add two by swiping some part of their uniform a couple times. This gets them to a slider (one plus two is three: three fingers is a slider). This way they can call their own game without making the catcher go through the signs again by shaking off. They can also subtract: one finger for fastball, minus one gets you to four, a changeup. Some guys like to do this and some catchers hate it: it’s hot, don’t make me do math. Everybody’s got to remember what part of the body is add and what part is subtract. I’ve seen some guys add and subtract on the same pitch: add two, minus one, we just went from fastball to slider and back to curveball.
Unfortunately, sometimes the only guy on the field who knows what the hell he’s throwing is the pitcher… and catchers like to be in on that sort of thing. I don’t know if what I saw Paulino doing was adding and subtracting, but I’ll put it on the list of things to ask about when the team gets home.
Matt Treanor’s hard-hit outs
Matt Treanor’s best offensive statistic is on-base percentage, but he’s one of the team leaders in hard-hit outs. This is one of the stats that Kevin Seitzer keeps (I’ve mentioned it in the past) and it’s well worth knowing. If a guy is hitting the ball hard, but hitting it at people, his average might look awful, but he’s actually having good at-bats. Treanor had a great one in the second inning: a 13-pitch at-bat that ended when he drove a single into left, scoring Jeff Francoeur.
One for the road
Just before they left on this trip, a reporter asked Ned Yost if the team was concerned because they didn’t have a very good road record. Yost said the team had no idea what its road record was and just came in every day, ready to play.
It’s been my experience that fans are much more concerned with things like ‘day games after night games played on turf when it’s over 80 degrees won-loss records.’ The players don’t pay much attention to that. A common question you get from players is ‘what day is it?’
They’re not dumb, they just don’t have to pay attention to the calendar, so they don’t. They’re not real sure of their won-loss record or what streak they’re currently on or how many games they are out of first. (Let them get closer to first and they’ll start paying attention.) Ned’s right, they just come in every day, knowing they have a game that they need to win.
One game at a time and one day at a time: not a bad way to live for anybody, ballplayers included.
Paulino
Francoeur
Getz
Hey you have the insider information all the time so I want to ask if you know the general rationale of Ned when he constructs the lineup everyday. e.g. why is Melky(and sometimes Getz) batting so high?
I think you missed something... or didn't mention it. I submitted a question last nite via twitter to ol' Joel. He said he did ask Frank and Lefebvre my question about what they thought of Mr. Lee Judge using the Polk system to evaluate the boys in blue, but I missed it because of Mlb.tv. Did you happen to hear it? I humbly take full credit.
Next question - why don't you have twitter? I assume this isn't you: http://twitter.com/lahjeans
I know at least I would enjoy a few tweets from you during a game. I doubt I'm the only one.
I second Tyler's comment! I'd love to hear from you on Twitter as well.
Lee, your column is far and away my favorite thing to read every day. I have learned a ton about the Royals and baseball in general and it's greatly increased my enjoyment of watching them play. Thanks!
Yamfun: (And if that's not the right way to address you, pardon my ignorance.) I'm not real sure about the logic behind the lineups.
Traditionally, you put a fast guy with a good on-base percentage at the top. Cabrera's on-base % isn't all that great (Matt Treanor's is quite a bit higher for instance). Gordon makes some sense there also.
Traditionally, the number two guy is a bat handler: he doesn't mind hitting down in the count (taking pitches while the leadoff man steals), he should be able to bunt as well as pull off the hit and run, so Getz makes quite a bit of sense in the two-hole. Jason Kendall had those qualities as a hitter also and that's why he was there much of last year.
Last night Escobar was in the two-hole, which on the surface, is puzzling. As always, I assume there was some factor I'm unaware of.
I do know a number of people think big lineup shuffles are 'eyewash' (baseball term for something designed to look good, but really doesn't matter). Sometimes managers shake up the lineup just to buy time, which is something baseball does fairly often:
When you're going bad, appease the fans by firing a coach or redoing the lineup. I don't know if that's the case here, so I wouldn't accuse the Royals of putting on a distraction during a bad streak.
And shuffling the lineup can give guys a fresh start mentally.
Lee, love all the insight you've provided this year. It's some fascinating stuff that I've worked into how I watch games and even how I play in my softball beer league games.
I just have to know what I'm missing with Billy Butler. EVERYBODY says what a great hitter he is, hitting machine, etc. All I seem to see night in and night out is two or three easy groundouts, a strikout, occasionally a double down the right field line. I'm not seeing any "loud outs", balls stroked into the gaps, and definitely nothing over the wall.
Is it just me that doesn't get why he has this great hitting rep, is it all based on a .300 average?
Tyler: No I didn't hear that, but I would've liked to. Both Frank and Ryan have been very supportive, which I appreciate. Joel Goldberg, TJ McGinnis and Kevin Shank have given me valuable exposure on the pregame show, a relationship I hope will continue.
My general impression is that they like having a different point of view, which Ron Polk's system provides. (Which is kind of hilarious, because this different point of view is coming from a system that's been around for decades.)
Tyler and Jason: Hey! Ixnay on the wittertay! Don't give my bosses any more ideas!
To be honest, I really don't know how I would get that done. I'm writing notes and recording every pitch as the game goes along and I've got to time trips to the bathroom, much less twitter.
I could be wrong (I'm getting old and I'm about to prove it), but I think some of this stuff provides diminshing returns. How many peole would I actually reach if I were tweeting? Here at the Star we like to do everything and don't often ask what's actually effective.
I will now go back to my pot of ink and quill to produce tomorrow's cartoon using a method invented before the birth of Jesus.
(To be honest, it's probably only a matter of time before I'm twittering or tweeting...whichever.)
Another question, Lee. I know that Gordon is getting a lot of credit for his outfield assists, and rightfully so. However, I never hear anyone mention Escobar in those conversations. Why is that? Does he get credit for those assists that he's a part of?
A couple of nights ago when Pena got plowed at home plate, Escobar threw an absolute rocket to make that play happen. I sure do enjoy watching that guy!!
(And by comparison, it seems that when Frenchy guns someone at the plate, there's no other fielder involved in the play, but no one ever talks about that either.)
Jeff: I'm glad you're getting something out of this...and I hope it helps you kick butt in softball.
As for Billy Butler: Your opinion of Billy will be determined by what you find important.
If all you care about is on-base percentage and average, then Billy is the best player on the team, hands down.
If you care about the rest of the game (defense, base running, etc.) he's not even close. According to Ron Polk's system and the way I've administered it (so it's very subjective) five other players have contributed more to the team's success this season.
That's one of the things I like about Ron's system: a one-dimensional player gets exposed, a guy who helps the team in a variety of way, gets credit.
Chris Getz has a better average with runners in scoring position. Francoeur, Gordon and Cabrera are all well ahead in RBIs even with lower averages and on-base percentages. Five people, including Alcides Escobar, have scored more runs.
Billy told me he's behind in RBIs because pitchers won't challenge him. Watch the games and decide for yourself if that's true.
On the other hand: if Billy were playing in another stadium, he would have more home runs and runs driven in. Last I heard, nobody has hit more doubles since his arrival in the league. So whether Billy is a victim of cirmcumstance or a player who is putting up good numbers that don't translate into actual production depends on what you decide to care about.
Jason: So right about Escobar. Fortunately, with the handy-dandy Polk system, I can give Esky outstanding defensive play points every time he does that...and I have.
As for Frenchy: last Friday I went out and threw with the outfielders. Before the first game of every series, they practice throwing to bases.
In a word, I was 'pathetic.' I'm actually not a bad athlete and probably have an above average arm for the general population. Put me out there with the best-throwing outfield in the league and it's laughable.
The next night, Frenchy went down into the corner, near the foul pole, had no crow hop, just threw flat-footed and came up with a one-hop laser beam to home that saved a run. I was playing shallow, had a running start and I still think the ball hasn't arrived at home plate.
We'll put up the video next week so you can all have a laugh.
Lee what about the ball in the first inning that Getz did not get, do you also think that could be a given run?
Lee, I have a scoring question for you. I was at the game last Friday night and Chris Getz attempted to steal second base. The throw arrived in plenty of time to get him, but he avoided the tag by diving to the outfield side of the base. His momentum took him way past the base. In fact, I'm not sure he even touched the base. The fielder then went to tag him out. Instead of trying to get back to second, Getz took off for third and was eventually tagged out in a rundown between second and third. Should Getz have been given credit for stealing second since he was tagged out trying to get to third base? When a batter tries to stretch a single into a double, he is still credited with a single.
Josh: Yeah, that play looked strange. Just one more time I wish I were there to talk to the people involved. It almost looked like he pulled up at the last second to avoid Escobar who was coming the other way.
I'd put that play in a different category though: it was going to be a tough play no matter what. Getz was moving away from second and was going to have to make a flip back across his body.
The other two runs were given up because people did not go to the right spot on the field, something you should be able to control.
Lee: I think that you are still selling Butler a little short here (I'm obviously inferring some things). With runners on and runners in scoring position his OBP is higher than with no one on. He is clearly being pitched around. Now the good argument can be made that he's being pitched around because he does not hit for enough power and with his ground ball rate hits into too many double plays. This caused him to be moved down in the lineup with no protection. Gordon and Francouer are both worse hitters (by AVG, OBP, and SLG) in the same situations.
This is the exact reason why we shouldn't be judging (Pun intended) based on RBI. For the record I still think that giving players 3 points for an RBI and 1 point for a run scored is ridiculous. When I ran the numbers last year it was about .05 tougher to get an RBI than a R across the AL.
For the last several weeks I have been feeling that your interest in players like Getz, Francoeur, and Traenor has been a little much. You seem to go out of your way to make excuses for them. If you honestly believe that Butler is not doing as much for this team then Frenchy and Getz then I really just don't know what to say. It seems that you are letting personal bias get in the way.
You say that if you care about more than just OBP and AVG that he’s not even close to the best player. Frankly that’s a load of crap. If you care about attempting to objectively analyze play and how valuable players are for their position, you can use something like WAR (which takes everything into play). He would be second on the team on that list.
While I like the discussion and insight into defense that your posts bring. You are still relying on a horribly outdated system and seemingly making an effort to back the system up rather than to progress the system with what you see is going on. I just need to take a break from this site for a while. Hopefully next season we can start fresh with a revised system.
Jeff: Your experience of remembering what Butler has done in this way is one of the reasons that a lot of stats people think that it is important when evaluating a player to look at the entire season and not just use what you remember. Most people simply cannot remember every single play. It also doesn't help that while some people are heralding Butler's hitting there are a lot of people in this town that think that the Royals can do a lot better with a DH and think he should be traded. Keep in mind that if Butler is gone who will play DH? It's the AL someone has to do it. Wilson Betimit is really the only other person that could fill that role right now. The manager has so much confidence in him that he would rather use Dyson as a pinch hitter in the 9th inning than Betemit.
Yes, there were defenses lapses. But you don't win many games scoring two runs. Our offensive production is offensive. Even when we get a guy on 3rd with less than two outs, we often don't get the runner home.
Lee: Twitter to me is worthless for talking to my friends or telling people what I am eating for lunch... What is useful for me is quick snaps of what's going on in the world of what I'm interested in. I follow Joel Goldberg, Mike Swanson, David Holtzman, Sam Mellinger, etc etc.
I guess my reasoning for getting to use Twitter would be my own selfish reasons - you already have ample work and things to focus on while you are watching/at the game...
Maybe that Jason who agreed with me on the itterTway can come up with how this could benefit you more than hurt...
I will have to admit that I find the "what day is it" thing to be a bit of a surprise. Perhaps it's because they just can't make any adjustments so why think about it, but the home-v-away differential is so great with so many teams (as it is with KC) that I'm surprised there is absolutely NO emphasis on it, especially considering how much of baseball has become based on stats down to the most minute detail.
In fact, I'm kinda surprised I've never seen any sabr thing on why the differential can be so great (perhaps there is, but I've never seen it and God knows I'm no wonk). It would be interesting to see that analysis and then see if anything could be done to win more of the road games via changes in approach (i.e. more aggressive baserunning to get early leads to negate the 'hammer' advantage).
Game's on right now, I'll respond to comments after it's over.
Robert: I vaguely remember the stolen base situation involving Chris Getz that you're talking about.
The rule that applies is 10.07 (e) which basically says a runner that overslides a base and is tagged out doesn't get a stolen base.
I think they're wrong, but there you have it.
Brian: First, we're not going to agree about a great many things and neither of us will walk away from this exchange happy. (30 years of cartooning have taught me that.)
If another system makes more sense to you, by all means, adhere to that system. If you like Wins Above Replacement and think it gives a more accurate picture of a player's worth, stick with that.
But does that mean ALL websites and ALL fans have to agree? Isn't there room for another point of view?
I've read the Wins Above Replacement formula and I truly doubt any stat takes everything into account. (I know of a well-known pitcher who had a bad season when he went through a divorce...WAR didn't seem to cover that.) Much of the WAR formula seems as arbitrary and subjective as the Polk System, although there's a good chance I don't get it: the description I read had some pretty big leaps of logic (a DH gets an 0.5 win boost...why not 0.4 or 0.6?) and I'm not inclined to accept numbers I don't understand. But if you understand it and it makes sense to you, knock yourself out.
If the Wins Above Replacement formula means more to you than actual runs drive in, nobody is asking you to abandon that belief.
There are a great many websites dedicated to advanced metrics. What I wanted to do here was create a website dedicated to the players' and coaches' view of the game. I thought it would be interesting to hear from the people who actually play at the highest levels of baseball.
I picked Ron Polk's system because it was created by a man who has coached at the highest levels of amateur baseball (8 College World Series, winningest coach of any type in the history of the SEC, etc.) and I don't find his view antiquated.
In fact, the reason the players like the system is it recognizes the things they find important: breaking up double plays, taking the extra base, etc..
I briefly tinkered with Polk's system, messed it up and decided that Ron Polk knew more baseball than I did and I'd live with what he'd created. I didn't feel qualified to mess with his creation and I'm surprised at the number of people who do.
I've never had anyone who played at a high level have a problem with Polk's system and in fact many of them use it on their teams. If I'm being unfair to you, and you did play at a high level, let me know, that would be interesting and might sway my opinion.
Supposedly, the whole reason for advanced metrics is to provide an open-minded look at the game, but I've had many fans of metrics be hostile to another point of view. That was probably the biggest disappointment of the first year, but I think the audience that's tuning in this year really does want to know what the players have to say.
As for my favoring Treanor, Getz or Francoeur: I don't think I favor them, I think I favor the way they play. I wanted the site to take notice of blocked pitches, smart plays and all the other little things that often go unnoticed because there's no statistic that records those things.
I think my what I said about Billy Butler is self-evident: he's a great hitter who doesn't do anything else very well. He doesn't play half the game and when he did play defense, didn't play it that well.
To me, here's no way he's contributing as much as people who hit, run the bases well and throw people out.
But if you feel differently, that's OK. Nobody is saying you have to agree with my conclusions...because I'm unlikely to agree with yours.
Bryce: More bad offense today and I'll expand on that tomorrow.
Matt: The biggest reason for home and away records would seem to be the ballparks. Baseball is the one sport (as far as I know) where you can change the playing field based on your talents.
Texas has a wind that blows to right center so they get some hitters that can lift the ball. We've got a bigger park so we should have line drive hitters to plug the gaps.
I didn't mean to say the players are unaware that they haven't played well on the road, just that they generally don't know precise numbers unless there's a good reason to.
One last thing on Twitter: when I started this project I asked Tim Bogar's advice. Bogie spent some time in the Rays press box, analyzing what he was seeing and then presenting those findings to the manager (what's his name with the glasses).
Tim said, "Watch the game. REALLY watch the game." It was the best advice ever.
You really have to pay attention to notice that Alex slid into second headfirst and third feet first and go find out why.
People often drift by in the press box and want to know what I'm doing and while I'm explaining it, I don't do it very well.
So maybe I'll have to Twitter eventually, but it won't improve the product.