Games » Chicago Cubs
Jun26Little things mean a lot
Lee Judge
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Lately I’ve been talking about the little things that can win or lose a ballgame and I don’t see any reason to stop now.
In the top of the 4th inning, Jeff Francoeur hustled to the right field line and came up with a throw that prevented Alfonso Soriano from scoring from first on a double and that saved a run. In the bottom of the 4th inning, Chris Getz drove in Matt Treanor from second and, when the throw went home, hustled into scoring position himself. That turned into a run when Eric Hosmer singled later in the inning. In the 6th inning, with a runner on third, Luke Hochevar threw a cutter in the dirt and Matt Treanor blocked it, saving a run.
The Royals won 6-3.
Without the plays I just described, the Cubs would have had two more runs and the Royals one less: that’s 5-5 and a tie ballgame. I could’ve found some other plays or pitches that changed the outcome of the game. They’re constantly happening while we all watch, but many of them go unnoticed.
Neither team knows what plays will be significant until the game is over. That’s why they talk so much about playing the game the ‘right way’: Hustle all the time. Run everything out, you never know. Pound the strike zone. Battle during every at-bat. Give nothing away and take all you can.
It’s not only the right way to play the game, it’s the right way to watch it: every pitch is important if you know what to look for.
One pitch’s importance
OK, let me prove what I’m saying: In the 3rd inning, Luke Hochevar was 2-1 on Geovany Soto. Luke then threw ball three. If Luke had thrown a strike (let’s assume that Soto doesn’t swing) the count goes to 2-2. Luke is then in a position of not having to throw a strike until he gets to 3-2. He can expand the zone. He can throw off-speed. He can start something in the zone and have it run out. He can try to throw a perfect pitch on the corner. He has a lot of options.
But he didn’t throw a strike, he threw ball three.
So now he has to throw a strike. He can’t try to be perfect and hit a corner. He can’t expand the zone or run a pitch off the plate. He has to throw something that he can control and he’s got to bite off enough of the zone to make sure he gets the call.
Luke threw a 93-mph 4-seamer (a straight fastball) pretty much down the middle. Soto hammered it for a home run. One pitch can change everything. Pay close attention and you’ll see one pitch change everything, every night.
How to talk to a pitcher
Aaron Crow was walking through the clubhouse flipping a ball up and down so I took the opportunity to ask him to show me his grips. This is a sure-fire conversation starter with any pitcher. You could be having dinner with the queen of England, the president of the United States and Jesus, and if a pitcher was there and you asked to see his grips, he’d forget the other dinner guests, grab a dinner roll and start to demonstrate.
Aaron showed me the grips for his 2-seamer (it runs down and in to righties), his 4-seamer (a straight fastball he uses when he’s trying to hit an exact spot), his slider and his curveball. The curveball was interesting: it was a pretty standard looking knuckle curve (forefinger curled in and middle finger pulling down on the front seam of the ball), but he also uses his thumb to push up on the seam positioned on the back of the ball. I’d never heard that one before. Imagine holding a can of soup at the bottom and then throwing it end over end and you’ll get the idea.
(The can of soup thing is actually a good way to teach an overhand curve, and ruin a can of soup.)
Then Aaron showed me his change-up and went through three different grips. I asked, why so many? “Because none of them work.” He’s searching for a grip that gives him the action he wants (he doesn’t care about movement, but needs deceptive velocity) and just hasn’t found one that works consistently yet.
Speaking of pitches
I asked Joakim Soria what he uses to get ahead of a hitter. Fastball, slider, change - turns out he’ll throw any of them to start an at-bat. How about the overhand curve, ever start a batter off with that? “No chance.” Turns out Joakim doesn’t want the batter to see that pitch until he’s ready to put him away. So when you’re watching Soria, look for that pitch once he’s ahead in the count.
Two very different ball players
What would you think of a player who was on pace to strike out 114 times, hit .264 and have a .311 on-base percentage? No thanks, right? I mean who would want that guy on their team?
OK, then, how about a player who was on pace to hit 37 doubles, 20 home runs, steal 23 bases and drive in 95 runs? Now that’s a little more like it, wouldn’t you say?
Well, they’re both the same guy, Jeff Francoeur. The point of this exercise is to remind everybody (including me) that selectively looking at just a few stats while ignoring others isn’t a very good way to evaluate a player. Everybody has strengths and limitations. Look exclusively at one or the other and you’re not seeing the whole picture.
The other thing to remember is the phrase “on pace” is pretty much a load of BS. It makes it sound like a .300 hitter gets three hits every time he goes to the plate 10 times, like whatever the player’s numbers are now will continue at that pace for the rest of the season or the rest of his career. Guys get hot and cold. They face people they dominate and people who dominate them. It is not a steady ride. Let me pick the stat and I can probably make any player look like a hero or a mutt.
And speaking of looking like a hero: Frenchy had three hits in this game. I asked if that was because of him or the pitchers he faced? Did he do something different or was it the same approach, but he got better pitches to hit?
Turns out it was a little of both. He said he laid off the extreme inside pitches and relaxed. Try to hit the ball too hard, you muscle up, your head moves when you swing and everything falls apart. Let yourself hit the ball, stay within yourself, don’t try to do too much, take what the pitcher gives you, let the game come to you and you’ll rake.
(I’m on pace to set a record for baseball clichés.)
One last thing
When Paul Rudd, Rob Riggle and Horatio Sanz were here, Frenchy was the real star. He was in fine form, making everybody, including the comedians, crack up. Afterwards, I saw him in the clubhouse and said, “It’s only a matter of time, dude, you’ll be in one of their movies.”
“Doing what?”
“I could picture you as a psycho killer.”
Giant grin, “But a funny psycho killer!”
Got to admit it: he was born to play the part.
Signals and signs with Royals third-base coach Eddie Rodriguez
Lee Judge learns about signals and signs from Kansas City Royals third-base coach Eddie Rodriguez. 6/14/11 (Video by John Sleezer/The Kansas City Star)
Hochevar
Getz
Treanor
Lee, I'd be curious to get your take on the reason there are so many guys throwing in the upper 90's today compared to 10, 20, and 30 years ago. Not that long ago, there were only a handful of guys in the league that threw 97-100. Now it seems every team has 2-3. If it hadn't been for all the controversy over steroids the past few years, I'd chalk it up to PED's. I've been told by a former ML pitcher that pitch speed is simply a function of arm speed. Certainly, there are a number of muscles that must work in perfect harmony to achieve maximum arm velocity, which likely explains why two physically similar guys can throw dramatically different maximum speeds. My question is this. Given the obvious trend upward in pitch speeds over the past several decades, do baseball experts believe there is a maximum velocity beyond which future major league pitchers may not be able to throw? Or might we see guys throwing 110 mph in 25 years? I know you're not a doctor or physicist Lee, but being on the inside, maybe you can discuss this with some baseball minds and relate back what you find out?
Any scuttle on what Ned is going to do with his 5-man rotation with Davies coming back?? Basically, we I assume Hochever, Chen, Francis, and Paulino are locks. Who will win the 5th spot? Davies, Duffy, Mazzano, or anybody else??? Do you think Crow will be locked into the 8th-inning slot all year? Thanks Lee! Great job, as always!
I must admit, I was not impressed last year when Getz came over from the White Sox. But he is really growing on me. It is more based off of the eye test then anything else b/c when you look on the box score or his stats, they are not great. But I think he is perfect for a team that has more consistent hitters that drive in runs. This team is not there quite yet, but they are getting better, esp once Moustakas and Hosmer become more consistent. Then that will take the pressure off of Butler and Frenchy and it will make it more difficult for opposing teams to pitch around those two. Is Giovotella a legit Major League starting 2nd baseman? Or is he a Kila type of player? A AAAA-type of player who's game just doesn't translate to MLB regular? I believe in Getz as an everday 2nd baseman. He does the little things great that enable the big bats in the lineup to be more productive.
Don: Good question, especially in light of the prevailing theory that kids do not throw enough to develop strong arms. Since we only had three channels on the TV set and none of them showed aanything for kids except on Saturday morning, I spent hours playing catch.
Come to think of it, my arm sucks, so maybe that theory isn't correct. I'm guessing that pitchers are developing along with everybody else. (My theory is steroids in the beef.) There are more tall kids than I remember and more 200 lb. quarterbacks and 300 lb. lineman in high school than I recall when I was playing football.
But when I get a chance I'll ask Bob McClure who definitely has a better idea of why this might be so than I do.
Jeff: I think Crow is in the pen the rest of the year. If they want him to start, I imagine they'll have him build up his pitch count over the winter and during spring training, not throw that at him mid-season. I don't know that for sure, but that's the prevailing theory.
As for the fifth starter: Duffy's last start made that a much tougher decision. He went seven and showed the ability to improve at the major league level.
I'm assuming part of the discussion is whether the big leagues or Triple A is the right place for his development. I think they want him to keep working as a starter, not go to the pen. Having said that, I don't have any inside information that would shed light on what they're about to do.
I think the kids today have grown up watching guys hit long home runs and get lots of money to do so. Nobody wants to be a pitcher. When we were grwoing up, Lee, we had Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, and all these other stud pitchers that are in the HoF. Makes you wonder how many pitchers we have now will ever make it to Cooperstown
Darral: Chris Getz is a perfect argument for something like Ron Polk's system. If you look at most of the traditional numbers (and some of the advanced ones), Chris won't wow you.
But if you pay attention to old-time baseball stuff: moving runners, sac bunts, turning the DP, heads-up baserunning, etc., you see a pattern of Getz getting those things accomplished.
Watch him go about his at-bats and adjust his approach depending on whether he's leading off an inning, moving a runner or driving someone in and you see a very smart ballplayer.
Scott: I've got no idea about that, but there do seem to be more hard throwers around than ever. Mike Moustakas told me that having everyone who comes out of the pen throwing 95 AND having some idea of where it's going, is a big adjustment.
Moose said guys throw hard in the minors, but they might be throwing hard at your neck.
Lee, Is it just me, or does Jarrod Dyson take bad routes to long fly balls? I was watching some replays of the game he started the other day and, while he made the plays, it seems like a lot of those fly balls would be caught much more easily if he'd take the correct "banana route" to the ball. It seems to me that he's just sprinting to a spot and then correcting his route and sprinting to the next spot. I think his speed allows him to make those plays, but it looks like there's lots of room for improvement. Have you heard anything from Coach Sisson on that? Your thoughts?
John: I haven't noticed Dyson's routes, but I can start paying attention. It's easier to see when you're at the park than on TV because you see where the outfielder started.
I can ask also ask Sisson.
I just moved our Royals schedule from the TV stand drawer to the fridge door so that must be worth something.
Barabar: It's progress, if you start carrying it in your wallet, I'll know I've done my job.
I just remember a few years back some ex-pitchers-now-broadcasters making that observation...very few "quality" pitchers coming into the game and they suspected it was because of everyone wanting to hit "bombs" Splitt was one that concurred
Hmmm...I think I was shooting for 'Barbara' in that last post. Gotta get an editor.
Judge not, lest you be judged.
Actually, I love your column. It's all the stuff I wish I could hear on talk radio, but don't.
Hey Lee, I was looking through the full game grid and it was noticable that the catchers have more defensive points than any other single position. My question then is do you think having catchers who can stop a wild pitch help the pitcher feel more comfortable with being agressive? Much like having Hosmer on first for the rest of the infield?
Thanks for pointing out the importance of one pitch Lee. While grooving a pitch is always dangerous, it's never more dangerous than when it's done while behind in the count.
A 3-1 fastball thrown down broadway is pretty easy to hit over the fence when the hitter knows that a 3-1 fastball down broadway is coming.
Chuck: Yes, I definitely think a catcher's ability to block a pitch has an effect on what pitch is called, especially with a runner on third.
When Bannister beat The Nationals and Strasburg last season, he kept spiking his curveball in the dirt. The fact that Jason Kendall could stop it, kept the pitch in play.
Kendall stopped curveballs in the dirt three times that day when a runner was on third and Bannister and the Royals won the game 1-0.
Without Jason's blocking ability, Bannister can't use that pitch and who knows how that changes the game.
If you think about it, there should be no surprise that catchers lead in defensive points. They handle the ball so many more times than anybody else. To me, and a lot of other people, that's what makes it a defensive position. If you're bad behind the plate, three good at-bats at the plate don't make up for it.
Chris: Absolutely right. A pitch you can get away with 0-0, will get crushed 3-1 because the batter knows it's coming.
0-0 he might have some doubt. Which is of course why pitchers need to throw strike one. Everything gets easier if they do that.
A reminder: West Coast games the next two nights so I might post in the mornings.
Lee- I agree that Getz is a legit, everyday starter at the MLB level. The more he plays he is only going to gain confidence and get better.
With that said, with what Mitch Maier has done over the last few years, do you think if he was ever given a legit chance to consistently start at the MLB level that he could be a strong, quality player? I certainly do, but also see that will not happen with the Royals with Gordon, Frenchy, Melky, Cain, Myers, and potentially Starling down the road. (Could throw in Dyson if he continues his improvement in hitting)
Jeff: I agree, Mitch is solid and would be starting for a lot of other teams. The other day Yost said he'd like to have Mitch starting twice a week, but hasn't made that happen yet.
Mitch is also a nice option off the bench: he can give you a good at-bat, lay down a bunt, run the bases or play defense without hurting you.