Games » Baltimore Orioles
May26Why did Alcides Escobar hit in the 10th?
Lee Judge
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Well, now, that was frustrating, wasn’t it?
As if the 6-5 loss to the Orioles wasn’t irritating enough, I now have all kinds of questions that I can’t get answered. When the Royals are home, I can walk downstairs and ask the people involved what was happening and why they did what they did, but when the Royals are on the road, I have to speculate until someone tells me different.
So now that we’re all clear that I’m about to indulge in speculation: Why did Alcides Escobar hit in the 10th inning of a tie game with two outs and the bases loaded?
I think because at that point Ned Yost didn’t have a choice. Ned had three players available to come off the bench in this game: Escobar, Maier and Treanor. Mike Aviles was starting at shortstop to give Alcides a day off, Getz was at second and Betemit was at third. Escobar ran for Betemit in the 9th (more on that decision in a moment), so the only two bats left on the bench (unless I’ve got amnesia and have forgotten somebody…always a possibility) were Mitch Maier and Matt Treanor. You’re probably not sending Matt to the plate unless you’ve got some really favorable matchup numbers (and managers are reluctant to use the second catcher just in case the first one gets hurt), so that leaves Mitch. I have no idea whom Baltimore has in their pen and whom Mitch might have faced had he come in to pinch-hit. The Royals know all that stuff and are well aware of what the odds would have been had Maier gone to the plate.
But even if you had a great matchup offensively, who would have played short in the bottom of the 10th? Even if Mitch comes through, you’ve still got to get three outs. Betemit was out of the game, Aviles could’ve gone back to short, but you’ve still got to get third covered. Maybe you could have brought Gordon back into the infield and sent Mitch to left, but screwing around with your defense in extra innings isn’t a great option.
Which brings us to an old story and why Ned is treating Escobar the way he is (probably…once again I’m speculating): Some old-time baseball guy whose name I’ve forgotten said he was being interviewed by Branch Rickey for a job. Rickey asked the guy if he thought he knew baseball. The guy said he thought he did. Then Branch Rickey proceeded to ask him five questions. The guy not only didn’t know the answer to the five questions but had never even thought of the questions before. And the first one was: Why has no team ever won a World Series with a left-handed-hitting shortstop? (I don’t know if that’s still true or was even true in Branch Rickey’s day, but the answer was interesting). Because you’d have to pinch hit for him too often. If you’re pinch-hitting for him, that means the game is close and in a close game you’re screwing up your defense right at the end. So maybe that’s why Ned Yost thinks Alcides Escobar has to learn to hit in those situations. He doesn’t want to have to screw up his defense in close games, and to keep his best defense on the field Alcides has to hit.
But that brings us to two more questions: Are the Royals playing for this year (they brought up Hosmer early) or the future (letting Escobar hit in pressure situations)? OK, I think I’ve climbed out on the speculation limb far enough, so I’ll end this by saying: I don’t know.
Oh, yeah…the other question: Why did Ned pinch-run Esky in the 9th? That move backed him into a corner in the 10th. Betemit led off the inning with a hit and ended up on second after an outfield error. As a manager, you only have so many bullets in the gun and you want to choose wisely when it comes to trigger-pulling. You could be conservative, but I’ve seen managers who save someone for a situation that never arises. Once you get into the last three innings (and with Ned it seems like more the last two), I think it’s time to pull the trigger.
He had the winning run in scoring position and sent out a faster runner. As Ned says, “You can’t be afraid to win ball games.”
Two mental mistakes
Wilson Betemit got thrown out trying to advance from second to third on a ball to the shortstop in the 2nd inning. That might be part of why Ned wanted a better base runner out there in the 10th. Chris Getz got doubled off third in the 7th inning on a one-out line drive to short. The radio guys said they thought the contact play was on, but even so, the runner is supposed to break on “down angle” (the direction the ball leaves the bat) and freeze on a line drive. If I remember, when he gets home, I’ll ask Chris if there was something else going on that I missed, but until then, it’s being scored a mental mistake.
The price of an open base
Back to the top of the 10th for a minute: When you’re on offense, it’s always good to remember that a successful steal or sacrifice bunt has a cost…the open base left behind. That means the defense can work around one hitter if they choose to do so.
Gordon led off the inning with a hit and Cabrera moved him over with a bunt. That meant the Orioles could work around one of the next two hitters. They went after Hosmer and he grounded out 4-3. Gordon advanced to third, but in a weird way, it screwed the Royals.
After Alex advanced, that meant there were two open bases for the Orioles to work with. They tried to get Frenchy to chase and when he didn’t, they intentionally walked Butler, which got them to Escobar. Remember that the next time you see a veteran hitter expand the zone: It might be because they recognize that the team is better off with them hitting a marginal pitch than someone on deck hitting at all.
It’s not just us
My wife is a psychologist, which is just a treat: Not only does she know when I’m being a jerk, but she knows exactly what type of jerk I’m being. Anyway, she once gave me an article about sports fans and how they see everything through their team. If their team won, it was because they played great. If their team lost, it was because they played lousy.
Theother team never registered.
A fan’s team never lost because the other team played great. I try to keep that in mind while watching games like this one. The Royals did not cash in on several scoring opportunities, and for 11 1/3 innings, neither did the Orioles. Sooner or later, someone was going to get the big hit, but if it had been the Royals, can you imagine what Orioles fans would have been saying about the bottom of the 11th when their team didn’t score with the bases loaded and nobody out?
It’s not just us.
A couple more things
The ball is more important than the bag. This principle was utilized By Eric Hosmer on a throw from Mike Aviles that pulled Hosmer off the bag. Not much point in keeping your foot on the bag and watching the ball sail into the dugout…a play we’ve seen more than once in the past. And in the 11th, Blake Wood issued an intentional walk to J.J. Hardy before leaving the game and being replaced by Everett Teaford. Maybe Ned Yost knows something (OK, several thousand things) I don’t, but I was taught to have the new pitcher issue the intentional walk. It satisfies the rule that he must face one batter and leaves you options if you don’t like the matchup that follows.
Getz
Cabrera
Francis
I thought you were going to criticize Escobar for not taking one off the elbow in the 12th. :-)
I'm sorry - the 10th.
I don't know, ever since I got smoked I'm a little less eager to tell someone else to do it.
There's probably a lesson there if I'd pay attention.
If the answer isn't next year, then it should be. They brought up Hosmer because there was simply nothing left for him to do in Omaha. Not only did the Indians jump out to an amazing start, but they kicked our butts all over the field even while we were playing well and winning lots of games against everyone else. This season should definitely be about really getting ready to contend next year. And if we can hang around .500, so much the better.
I am not a fan of pinch running for your best hitters. It was one thing when we were bringing in Dyson for Butler with the winning run; Dyson can change the game by himself in a key spot. But Mitch and Mike and Chris, though they are good baserunners, are not in the same category. And then we have a huge whole right in the middle of the lineup, so that not only doing we have Esky in there, but as you say, there is a ripple effect throughout the lineup.
Curtis: We're probably on the same page. If this team plays .500 I think we should all be happy. If they're still around in September, so much the better. I just hope we can hold onto some of the guys that have made this team so much fun this year.
Bringing up Hosmer early cost them some money down the road so I think that sent the message (even in the clubhouse) that management was serious about this year. I also think there have been mixed messages about the mindset (or at least that's the way I've perceived it). Some nights we're told it's all about winning ballgames now and some nights were talking about development.
Also, I'd tend to be aggressive about bringing in a runner in the later innings if you think it might win the game, even though I'd agree with you: Dyson was in a different class than everyone else.
I was taught a very aggressive managing style and believed in using the few bullets I had in the last few innings.
I was also taught to fix the problem I had (a slow runner in scoring position) rather than the problem I might have (a lesser hitter at the plate in extra innings). But I don't think anyone who disagrees is necessarily wrong, hey're just taking a different approach.
Lee, as an informed baseball guy that has the luxury of being able to hang around the team when it is in town, I'd be interested in your take on something that has been in the back of my mind this year. When I observe the Indians and Tigers on television against the Royals, their guys all look huge compared to our guys. Initially, I justified this in my mind by speculating that they were all offense and no defense type players. But then I saw them making spectacular running catches in the gaps and throwing out runners from deep short. It reminded me of my junior high school football playing days when my team would all stand and watch the other team come running onto the field with mouths gaping because they all looked so much bigger than us. In the case of the Royals, is this just my imagination, or are the Indians and Tigers really as big and athletic as they appear on TV? If true, have you spent any time with the young guns in the Royals farm system to know whether they are "bigger?"
Good question and I've got no clue, although it would be easy to compare rosters and height and weight. (No time to do it this morning, though.) As I said on the site, I've been impressed by how big OUR guys are, but then you stand next to Matt Weiters and he's a monster. Same with Sandy Alomar, Jr. these guys are all bigger than you'd think from watching TV.
One of the reasons that Greinke left was that even if we brought up our kids, it would take them a few years for them to learn the Major League game. Look at Jay Bruce. After a few years, he's starting to produce. So while it's frustrating to see Escobar hit in that key situation. It shows that Yost is planning for the future, while still "trying" to win today. We still need some power. HRs are rare from this team. As long as the team stays near .500, and plays competitively, I'll still be watching from here in NJ.
In regards to Teaford not having to walk his first batter, isn't this so that you don't mess with the new pitcher's control? Teaford has just been pounding the plate in the bullpen and then has to purposely throw 4 balls, whereas Wood is already exiting, so his command isn't an issue anymore.
What is the deal with the release of What the deal with releasing Tejeda? According to the Omaha announcers, he had regained his speed on his fastball. According to the Omaha site, he had pitched in 5 games with an ERA of 0. Can't confirm this.
When things are going lousy there is always this strong desire to figure out why. Along those lines, there is an interesting comment from CNN/SI sports that the decline of the Royals coincides very closely with a return to earth (to their normal lifetime performances) by Frenchy and Melky after their hot starts (Frenchy is known for having a hot month about every year over his otherwise below average career).
I was at Thursday's game (live in Virginia and drove up). Had great seats behind first base. When Escobar twisted out of the way of that pitch I thought immediately of Lee and his encounter with the pitching machine. Contact play was definitely on when Getz got doubled off there. I was also unhappy with the way the Royals failed to knock Guthrie out after getting 4 on him in the 2nd. His pitch count was 55 after 2 innings but then he had 3 very quick and easy innings in a row where KC failed to work the count at all.
A new pitcher may be thrown out of his rhythm by throwing the intentional walk lobs instead of coming in and throwing strikes from the start. Do a google search and you'll find plenty of arguments that intentional walks throw pitchers off. The same line of reasoning that throwing over to first on a fielding play or a pick off is harder for a pitcher than you'd think (and in the case of pickoffs can also throw a pitcher out of rhythm).
Lee, would you happen to have a link to that article about sports fans? I'm curious about it.
OK, I've been drawing cartoons all day so I haven't had time to get in on the discussion until now, so in no particular order:
*I don't know what's up with Tejeda or what the reasoning is for his release. The team usually knows something we don't, but on the surface this doesn't seem like much of a trade up: Felipe Paulino is 6-25 with 5.93 lifetime ERA. Somebody must know something that explains this, but I won't hear it until the team comes back on Monday.
*I've got a buddy who is a dissertation short of a doctorate in mathematics and I asked him to look at some of the sabermetric systems and at what I'm doing and he made an interesting observation: people slide rather easily and often unknowingly between 'descriptive' and 'predictive' systems. I'm using a descriptive system. In other words, I'm trying to describe what has happened (which is hard enough), not what will happen. Which brings me to Cabrera and Francoeur: according to Ron Polk's system (administered by me, which means someone else could do it and have it come out differently), Melky and Frenchy are having the two best seasons on the team and it's not that close. I don't know if they will fade in the future, but in the past 7 games Frenchy has had 8 hits and Melky has had 9 (with some pop thrown in), so if they're fading, it hasn't been apparent in the last week.
*Vinnie is from New Jersey? Cool! I haven't known a single Vinnie before this and to make the acquaintence of a New Jersey Vinnie is even cooler! Hang in there, Vin'. If the Royals get to be the hot team in the next couple years you will want to lord it over all the latecomers who want to jump on their bandwagon.
*As for who issues the intentional walk: I was with you guys originally. I figured have the guy leaving do it, he created the mess and I didn't want my new pitcher starting off by throwing four out of the zone. When I explained this to Tim Bogar, Red Sox third base coach, he shook his head sadly and said, "Lee, Lee,Lee" and explained the new guy HAS to issue the walk or you've been backed into a corner. The other team can dig up Babe Ruth and send him to the plate and your pitcher has to face him (although I'm almost sure I could get Babe Ruth's corpse out...if I could find the zone.) That reasoning made a lot of sense to me, but I've seen other managers do it the other way, so maybe there's alternate reasoning that would trump Bogar's.
*Christopher, I agree with you about pickoffs. Ever since Doug Sisson mentioned it, I've been noticing the quality of a pitch after a few consecutive pickoff attempts. I see a lot of pitches out of the zone and a lot of pitches whacked. One of the most effective moves is simply holding the ball and letting the runners legs go dead. A lot of pitchers seem to have trouble varying their sets and I'm assuming it hurts their rhythm.
Unfortunately, things didn't go so hot last time the Royals visited Texas (the Rangers were able to take advantage of the stadium jetstream...especially to right...and the Royals weren't. It'll be interesting to see what happens over the weekend.
Richard: No, I don't have a link to the article. It was back in the day when people made a photocopy and handed it to you, so I don't even remember what publication it was in, but I'm betting there's been plenty of research since then and available on the web concerning sports fans.
Posting last night's game shortly.
Anybody looking at the coach? Hard headed if you ask me......... and by the way, where is Player POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG OPS E
Eric Hosmer 1B 26 98 21 43 5 0 3 15 57 19 16 3 0 .525 .582 .439 1.107 3 Clint Robinson DH 44 172 33 60 13 0 11 32 106 25 32 1 0 .434 .616 .349 1.051 2